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Lance Brozdowski
United States
Приєднався 18 тра 2009
Comprehensive and insightful baseball analysis.
ONE Tweak Will Make this MLB Lefty Elite
This video is an excuse to discuss a pair of way-too-early breakout picks for 2025: MacKenzie Gore and Andrew Painter.
We'll dig into the one tweak I'm yearning for Gore to make (hint: it has to do with fastballs) and dive into Andrew Painter's Arizona Fall League Data. Enjoy!
My substack can be found here: lancebroz.substack.com/
Instagram: lancebroz
TikTok: www.tiktok.com/@lancebroz
Twitter: LanceBroz
Huge Thanks to TruMedia for access to their software for the plots, data, and images within this video: www.trumedianetworks.com/baseball
Video and images: MLB, USA Today, Associated Press, MLB.tv
0:00 Reflecting on MacKenzie Gore's Season
1:11 How Gore's Fastball Got Better
2:02 The Count REALLY Matters
3:24 One Tweak Will Make Gore Elite
4:20 Gore's 2025 Projection
5:34 The Mystery: Andrew Painter
6:18 Painter's AFL Shape Changes
7:47 Arm Angle and Steep VAA Fastballs
8:43 Painter's 2025 Projection
We'll dig into the one tweak I'm yearning for Gore to make (hint: it has to do with fastballs) and dive into Andrew Painter's Arizona Fall League Data. Enjoy!
My substack can be found here: lancebroz.substack.com/
Instagram: lancebroz
TikTok: www.tiktok.com/@lancebroz
Twitter: LanceBroz
Huge Thanks to TruMedia for access to their software for the plots, data, and images within this video: www.trumedianetworks.com/baseball
Video and images: MLB, USA Today, Associated Press, MLB.tv
0:00 Reflecting on MacKenzie Gore's Season
1:11 How Gore's Fastball Got Better
2:02 The Count REALLY Matters
3:24 One Tweak Will Make Gore Elite
4:20 Gore's 2025 Projection
5:34 The Mystery: Andrew Painter
6:18 Painter's AFL Shape Changes
7:47 Arm Angle and Steep VAA Fastballs
8:43 Painter's 2025 Projection
Переглядів: 2 569
Відео
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Next year watch out for yamamoto and king
Both studs 💪
Do a video on Kyle Harrison
I’ll keep that in mind. I want him to add a new breaking ball bad
keep up the great work🙌 You're literally my favorite baseball UA-cam channel right now!!!
Appreciate that! 🫡
Love Mackenzie Gore. Excited to see that he is taking a step forward.
He’s way to inconsistent to ever be elite
He had one 8 start-stretch last season where he sucked. Not crazy to think a pitcher heading into his age 26 season can figure things out
I love Andrew painter
A gore video. LETS GO
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Do you think the fastball predictability thing for Gore is part of why he ran an absurdly high BABIP for the season (.340) ? He’s already a guy who feels like he can be here and there with his command , and falling behind more often than average combo’d with 70% 4S usage seems like a recipe for difficulty with balls in play. Also, do you think there’s anything to his stuff and strikeouts declining notably in the second half (115 stuff+ 10.6 K/9 -> 103 stuff+ 8.6 K/9), or you reckon that just a young improving pitcher whose stamina hasn’t caught up to his improved arsenal?
Could be a small tie between the 4S usage and his high BABIP. In reality though, we’d just expect that BABIP to fall back to .300 or so. Just too many variables in there he’s not in direct control of. The stuff decline is definitely relevant. It was mostly velocity based. He was 96.5+ in April/May and then back to 95.5ish late. Held similar shape and slot for most of the year. Maybe he’s like Eovaldi where he just consistent tails off late? But I’d like to agree with you and think it’s just a conditioning thing, body wasn’t prepared to hold 96+ for 150+ IP. Hoping that he’s more consistent with that. He was pretty effective late though! 2.90 FIP in Sept, just had a really crappy 8-9 start stretch in July/Aug that’s gonna mess up the 1st and 2nd half splits
I think his command is def still shaky, and I would not be surprised to see high fluctuactions in era and hr rate. but if he stays healthy I think he's a really solid starter
I don't know how you can trick with to many similar types pitchers.
Come to Seattle we develop great pitchers
Have you considered doing a video on why a pitcher is over-performing their stuff plus numbers? A guy like Andrew Abbott, it makes no sense why he does not have a 5-6 ERA.
Push the velocity, grip it as hard as you can and throw the crap out of it. How long until they all have Tommy John? They will surely all just break really soon, right?
Finally somebody else who doesnt hate on Clay holmes
🫡🫡🫡
What do you think about the twins trying out griffin Jax as a starter?
Yeah! I like it, I mention him at the end of video actually. I wanted to focus on free agents in this but if I expanded out Jax would be #1
As a Yankee fan I always thought Clay got beat on his sinker. It’s a good pitch but it always felt like he was at his best when he was throwing that sweeper and slider more. I think it’d be an interesting experiment but I’m not sure how much I’d believe in it. However you are a lot smarter than me so it’ll probably work out.
On another note, if you're intereated/have the time, I'm curious what your thoughts are on Will Warren. I feel like he is a strong candidate for a Yankees SP->RP transformation. His Sinker-Sweeper combo remidns me of Ottavino and Michael King, albeit from a higher arm angle. I feel like if they full-force focus him on being a RP (which is likely given that the rotation has no openings for him atm) he could find similar success, and then maybe down the road could even be a candidate for the SP->RP->SP career trajectory of guys like Lugo and King.
I do like Warren a lot. He’s one of the few guys with an above average SK and 4S per stuff models, which is often hard to do. I’m a bit torn on whether I’d prefer him as SP or RP. I get going with the latter and just leaning on returning some value, but I think he’s worth keeping as an SP and figuring out some of the kinks that prevented him from being productive. Feels like those King/Schmidt/Warren types take a year or two to figure out their LHH approach.
I think Clay Holmes would be a terrible idea. He has horrendously inconsistent command of his pitches and we can easily expect a 1-3MPH average fastball/sinker velocity decrease if he switches to the rotation. I can't see this one tbh Lance.
Horrendously inconsistent command is a pretty large exaggeration to me. He’s run an ~8% walk rate for 3 years and our main proxy for “command” via FanGraphs thinks he’s average Gotta back up the eye test with data! And vice versa
SP not RP. Even tho teams have tried and failed. 1)Try mechanical changes (they did. Saw improvements. Still not enough) 2)change grip. Did. Still not enough. And it has less movement. Soo, less difference in pitch mix. More likely to get hit if batter GUESSES wrong cause doesn't leave bat path. 3) with no logical reason. Teams should try SP to save money. With evidence why. "Here's how he ranked as reliever. Let's have him rank even WORSE as SP. I hate this guy being associated with Cubs. Analytics are f*@'ed
I didn’t understand like 75% of this comment, but thank you for commenting and helping me in the algo. 🫡
@LanceBroz I don't understand your logic... You state proof AGAINST your conclusions. Then say you should do it anyway. That clear things up?
I would like to see Kopech start again ! But you got tony ,dustin may ,walker ,ohtani ,yama (snell ,fried ) probably sasaki and pretty sure they could trade for crochet
Dodgers gonna have the first 10-man rotation haha
Do you think if the Dodgers and Cubs offers to him are competitive he picks LA because his roots there?
Kinda seems to me like everybody is just assuming the Dodgers get all these SPs (Fried, Sasaki, Buehler, etc). And that just seems unlikely to me. My impression of the Cubs is that they’d spend in mid tier market (Eovaldi, Kikuchi, etc) or through trade. So while I think they’d be a fit, I bet another team offers more.
Random question but what do you think of Shintaro Fujinami and could the dodgers make him into an elite arm?
Fuji can’t find the zone. I think it’s as simple as that. I’d send him to Driveline and give him an entire offseason of command training. Hope it bore some fruit. Maybe LAD would find something in his delivery to help? Although I’m mostly skeptical that small mechanical tweaks would cut his BB rate in half. Basically unplayable if he’s walking ~22%, no matter how fun the stuff looks.
@@LanceBroz Thanks for the reply and I think you are exactly right, it just feel criminal to let that stuff go to waste...
Hi Lance, thanks for tackling this topic. In addition to these two guys, do you have any thoughts on the potential conversion for Griffin Jax and Dedniel Nunez (the latter of whom only really throws two pitches, but has been playing with a sinker and change)? I found from a cursory search that both seem to check all three of those preliminary boxes you listed. Would love to know if you have any insight on those two, as well as for Nate Pearson who I'm a little less high on but apparently the Cubs are planning to try to start. Edit: Just heard you mention Jax in the final 30 seconds of the video, glad to know I was not that far off!
Yeah! Jax is a super obvious conversion type, especially with MIN needing some SPs. I just wanted to focus on FA RPs in this vid so I chose Holmes and Hoffman. Nunez reminds me a lot of Ben Brown without the height. 2-pitch mix that’s pretty platoon neutral because of the shapes (slider is a death ball). He sinker shape *looks* good but I think he’s cutting it too much and velo is down unnecessarily. But I like the baseline of the changeup I think he’s a constant for a conversion, yeah. Just might run into problems with the 4S, like Ben Brown has, but maybe the lower release helps him a bit. Pearson is an odd one. He’s continually underperformed his peripherals for most of his career. Feels like a perennial “should be better” guy, but I often think the more sample we get of ERA, which can be crazy noisy, the more reliable it can become. We’re probably not there YET but we’re creeping towards it. I’m fine from a return-on-investment standpoint of trying to start Pearson. I just don’t think it works, especially if Wrigley plays more neutral next year, he’s going to give up a bunch of home runs.
Fantastic, quality video. No fluff, solid data, fantastic insights. Thank you!!!
Thanks!
Awesome vid lance!
Thanks!
🐐
🫡🫡🫡
Keep up the great work Lance!
Thanks!
Holmes has a really nice sinker-sweeper mix like Michael King, but unless he's got another pitch (aside from his SL) up his sleeve he can command well I think trying to convert him to a starter is more of an experiment than a thing worth a shot. Still a really interesting idea!
He has a elite sinker 2 different well grades sliders, and threw couple of four seam fastballs in the post season.
I think the sinker plays better to LHH than people think, generally those with a ton of drop do. So may not really need the 4s, but I think some kind of SPL/CH would help with the swing-miss.
Already has 4 pitches (SK/SL/Sweeper/FB), we’re tinkering with the idea of adding a CH (which is good in pens) and/or a CT, which should work well from his supination bias.
@@Angeldnavac Grade means nothing if you don't have consistent command, and those grades are likely inflated by the fact that he doesn't have to throw those pitches 30-50 times per game each. I cannot see Holmes thriving as a SP even remotely rn.
Great analysis as usual!
🫡🫡🫡
Nice video!
Was thinking about a video that I think would be really interesting- Going through each team and describing their pitching/development philosophy Could also add maybe a prospect in their system or potential FA that fits their philosophy best
I like it! Will definitely consider I did something kinda like this earlier this year and the prior year as well. Basically more of a check-in… BEST MiLB Pitching Philosophy? (2024 Update) | Yankees, Dodgers, Rays, White Sox & More! ua-cam.com/video/KEda32ZJbR4/v-deo.html
@ Oh awesome, definitely giving that a watch!
Thanks for the amazing stats! Great video🤙🏼
Thanks for watching !
You are so locked in Lance. Keep cooking
🫡🫡🫡
I don't think that's a Cub's philosophy as much as it is a Breslow philosophy, as all the points you're making here about fast balls with break and sweepers have made it's way to Boston. Boston's rotation is also full of righties, so it makes sense that Boston is going to be looking for at least one lefty option.
In a way, sure. But I think that when Breslow left they didn’t just scrap everything he believed in. His imprints are still on the org. Breslow and Bailey are throwing so few 4S with BOS and CHC still throw a good amount through the minors. So I’d almost argue, in a way, perhaps Breslow brought some ideas and Bailey brought others.
I'am willing to bet 50 k this dude has been watching yamamoto 😂😂😂
What soft tossing lefty starter will the Pirates fix this year, and why is it Cole Irvin? 😂
L O L These are the comments I live for on my channel 😂
Walker you are a Detroit Tiger 😏😏😏.
I know it doesn’t make sense for him to come to my Detroit Tigers but I think he’d fit really well. We also have elite pitching coach and he wouldn’t have to be an elite starter he would be a mid rotation arm for us.
Just found your channel, and I love the stat breakdown. Great details and explanation.
Thanks!
エンゼルスに行くのもいいと思う笑
Interesting approach
Come to my team, the White Sox 😐 😢
With Sasaki’s velocity and pitch movement, are there specific MLB teams or pitching coaches who’d be especially well-suited to help him transition to the majors? For instance, the Cleveland Guardians have a great track record for developing pitchers with strong fastball-slider combinations, like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and they’re known for building on a player’s strengths while making key adjustments for MLB success. Do you think a team like Cleveland could be a good fit for Sasaki, or might another organization be better equipped to bring out his unique skill set
Well I think the Dodgers are a great fit, particularly because I think his SL needs some rework and LAD crushes that development with most of their pitchers. I think the Twins do a great job on the biomech side of things, unlikely he goes there, but they’d be a great team to get him back to 2023 movement patterns and shapes. You’re on the right track though! Guardians would be fun. Just have to wonder what he’s valuing in this process.
I think he's no doubt joining team Tommy John. I don't think he's going to be as electric as he used to be unfortunately.
This guy is underrated big time ! Mlb shows should give him a call
🙏🙏🙏
Cub will not spend the required money for either Fried and Buehler. Fried want to go to west coast (ie Dodgers)
Cubs are the favorite in betting markets right now. Dodgers can’t have all the free agents! That’s not how it works 😂
Immediately moot now that the latest Japanese phenom is being posted, with his salary apparently being controlled due to his age and international status, and the Cubs having an insiders track on him - if he’s open to it.
Getting into the weeds! I love this kind of shit! I'll miss Fried with my team but we've more or less known he was moving on for a few years.
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If I hear correctly, cold weather affecting Buehler, then maybe Boston, or teams affected by cold weather is a good fit.
奴は体力無いからね😆
uhhh....no. Fried just had dinner with half the Dodgers roster, and he's from SoCal, so that's where he's going. Buehler has also made it quite clear he wants to stay in LA, so Dodgers sign both.