Incredible analysis, Lance, thank you! As a Dodger fan, I love how Prior and McGuinness have gotten the best out of so many pitchers and resurrected a lot of careers. I tip my hat to the whole organization for finding talented arms and then developing them.
You truly do such an excellent job on these breakdowns and using a style which doesn't require someone to have a glossary up on another screen to understand.
I did just do a small comparison with your Kopech dodgers clips vs. on the white sox, it looks as if Will Smith sets up for the cutter by his bottom left knee -- almost below the zone. The White Sox catchers were setting up middle/middle using the "let the stuff play" philosophy for both fastball and cutter
Interesting catch! Funny how the “one target” idea can now be taken advantage of by sharper teams on guys who they think have more command than they actually do
I’ve been saying for years that the Dodgers and Rays are the two best organizations in baseball, the difference is that the Dodgers also have plenty of money.
have some additional advanced analysis -- if kopech cuts/shaves the hair but keeps the beard next year he will have a 1.53 ERA and a 14 K/9 with 50 saves
Tread seems like the go to place for guys who are looking for high-level mechanics adjustments, it’s just that it’s also high-end pricey (as it should be) it makes me wonder how many people with hidden potential just never got the right tools to unlock it, imagine how many football and basketball and track stars had the ability to throw 100 but just didn’t go down that path
Yep! Great point. I think long term things like that might trickle down and be more accessible for even small high schools, but that’s going to take a while. And the tech will probably cheapen quicker than the people at that low a level’s ability to synthesize the information
@@LanceBroz Someday in the future some new amazing tech will come out and things like edgertonic’s and raphsodo will be as outdated as an old Juggs speed gun, thinking of the future stuff is really helps lessen the blow of knowing people in the past couldn’t even know how fast they threw
Wonder if having someone like Will Smith behind the plate is also a factor. I know Trevor Bauer talks about it when he joined the Japanese and Mexican league and having to put trust in his catchers. It's also the same reason why Kershaw always has Austin Barnes catch for him during his turn. Also another strange thing I remember was talking about the different cities have different elevations and humidity factor and maybe he's just more comfortable in the warm humid climate.
Catcher could definitely matter. I think catcher and gameplanning stuff will be tied together for the most part, so might be hard to separate But Barnes has always been the king of framing glove side sliders from righties so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s something to what you’re saying
I’ve seen that stuff+ models like lots of velo difference between fastballs and changeups, but also like changeups that are thrown hard. Sounds like your saying gap should be small?
Multiple kinds of changeups can work for sure The *best* from a performance standpoint are those that have a small velo gap and big break gap (source: x.com/langintots13/status/1483612405414252545?s=46&t=VAfsTguiRw_wQHIfb4D1pw) But those which separate a lot on velo and shape are still good
Kopech getting traded to the Dodgers, Yankees etc and turning into a lights out reliever was inevitable. I think Ethan Katz/White Sox big league pitching coaching/development is actually pretty good, but it's a shame they weren't able to unlock him this year.
Looks at his final starts with the Sox, he finally listened to the Sox coaching staff after basically saying he wasn't before. His change was going to happen just sucks the Sox sold him so early.
Learned that Anthony Banda trained at Tread Athletics this offseason, so the Dodgers can't claim all of his success. Had hot velo numbers at their pro day back in spring. I'd be surprised if you don't already sub to Tread on UA-cam, but if you don't, you should: www.youtube.com/@treadathletics
Do you want good pitchers? Throw hard. Do you want injuries? Throw hard. The natural counter is “command the ball.” If that was an effective way to pitch and reliably trained, more teams would take that approach, but they haven’t. 🤷♂️ Tough balance. LAD also takes on a ton of risk in terms of preexisting injuries.
@@aidanwong4858fair but his fastball isn’t that great shape wise I don’t think, I wonder if it’s due to splinker which seems to be trending for most low slot higher velo guys
I think it’s just super hard to hit a ball 103+. Hitters just have no mental map for that. Goes back to the idea that as velo keeps climbing it becomes more and more advantageous to throw even harder and harder. I do think he could be throwing a harder version of his slider. That velo separation is big off the 4S and I think it’s pigeon hole-ing him into the fastballs (thankfully he has 2). And I think he should be more SK to RHH than he is.
When any team does that and has a successful staff, it’ll be news Until then, the sharp organizations will continue to prize velocity (and be tolerant to injury) until somebody proves there’s a better way 🤷♂️
Two questions, why throw cutter and slider if they are such a similar pitch? Why do you think he got rid of his change up and curveball? I remember the curve being a somewhat an effective pitch for him.
I’m actually not sure if it’s 2 pitches. My guess is that’s it’s unintentional and he’s just getting around the pitch, same orientation. So it’s 1, but it’s tagged as 2 🤷♂️ And that was likely an attempt to just simplify. They were just trying to get him around the zone I don’t think either are too necessary right now but they could become necessary
Off topic. The Mariners rotation has the hardest FF velo in MLB but also the most amount of IP, they're also top 3 in almost all other pitch types in velo You'd expect a rotation that leads MLB in IP to not be the hardest throwing rotation in the majors (harder velo is a big stressor in arms, hard breaking balls as well). Have the Mariners figured something out with velo and workload?
Idk about the other stuff, but the slider/breaking velo could because of what shapes the mariners like(looks like gyro). Miller,Gilbert, and Castillo all have really similar sliders in terms of vertical break. Kirby isn’t far off and Woo is just a freak
And the funnier thing is that they throw lowest number of 4S in the minors! Maybe they have. I do think they’re pretty sharp. I wonder how much it helps to have similar age guys all on the same staff learning from each other. Seems like they’re all making adjustments so quick. Props to SEA for allowing that, don’t think all orgs would. Might be hard to separate their individual pitchers health from the greater health of their organization. In the end, I think anybody who throws hard is going to pop. I’d like to think they have the secret sauce though. Might be something for me to look into 👍
There isn’t unfortunately. Thats Hawkeye data that might never really break into the public space But it would be super cool Pure intent from the pitcher will always be best and that is probably impossible to get. But I bet you could get a pretty great command model based on catcher and where a pitcher *should* be throwing a pitch
Incredible analysis, Lance, thank you! As a Dodger fan, I love how Prior and McGuinness have gotten the best out of so many pitchers and resurrected a lot of careers. I tip my hat to the whole organization for finding talented arms and then developing them.
🫡🫡🫡
You truly do such an excellent job on these breakdowns and using a style which doesn't require someone to have a glossary up on another screen to understand.
Appreciate it, Jason! 👍
I did just do a small comparison with your Kopech dodgers clips vs. on the white sox, it looks as if Will Smith sets up for the cutter by his bottom left knee -- almost below the zone. The White Sox catchers were setting up middle/middle using the "let the stuff play" philosophy for both fastball and cutter
Interesting catch! Funny how the “one target” idea can now be taken advantage of by sharper teams on guys who they think have more command than they actually do
Dang, crazy analysis. Well done.
🫡🫡🫡
Well done.
I normally watch football breakdowns and this is just as good as the breakdowns i see.
very informative and learned something new.
Appreciate the compliment 👍
Yes. Great analysis. Ty.
Very nice video bro
I’ve been saying for years that the Dodgers and Rays are the two best organizations in baseball, the difference is that the Dodgers also have plenty of money.
Which almost makes the Rays more impressive haha
have some additional advanced analysis -- if kopech cuts/shaves the hair but keeps the beard next year he will have a 1.53 ERA and a 14 K/9 with 50 saves
😂😂😂
Yes, less wind resistance during his wind up.
Nice well done 👍
Tread seems like the go to place for guys who are looking for high-level mechanics adjustments, it’s just that it’s also high-end pricey (as it should be) it makes me wonder how many people with hidden potential just never got the right tools to unlock it, imagine how many football and basketball and track stars had the ability to throw 100 but just didn’t go down that path
Yep! Great point. I think long term things like that might trickle down and be more accessible for even small high schools, but that’s going to take a while. And the tech will probably cheapen quicker than the people at that low a level’s ability to synthesize the information
@@LanceBroz Someday in the future some new amazing tech will come out and things like edgertonic’s and raphsodo will be as outdated as an old Juggs speed gun, thinking of the future stuff is really helps lessen the blow of knowing people in the past couldn’t even know how fast they threw
Dodgers legend Edwin Uceta
Already added Uceta in fantasy, time to scoop Kopech!
🫡🫡🫡
Dodgers: “We can rebuild him. We have the technology.”
Just a small pitch location change! And the the biggest factor is CHANGE OF TEAM
Ucetas FB is a 4S fwiw. Idk why its tagged as 2S
Good call, was just looking at grip and it’s a 4S.
Weird why they would tag that as a sinker 🤔
Wonder if having someone like Will Smith behind the plate is also a factor. I know Trevor Bauer talks about it when he joined the Japanese and Mexican league and having to put trust in his catchers. It's also the same reason why Kershaw always has Austin Barnes catch for him during his turn.
Also another strange thing I remember was talking about the different cities have different elevations and humidity factor and maybe he's just more comfortable in the warm humid climate.
Catcher could definitely matter. I think catcher and gameplanning stuff will be tied together for the most part, so might be hard to separate
But Barnes has always been the king of framing glove side sliders from righties so I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s something to what you’re saying
I’ve seen that stuff+ models like lots of velo difference between fastballs and changeups, but also like changeups that are thrown hard. Sounds like your saying gap should be small?
Multiple kinds of changeups can work for sure
The *best* from a performance standpoint are those that have a small velo gap and big break gap (source: x.com/langintots13/status/1483612405414252545?s=46&t=VAfsTguiRw_wQHIfb4D1pw)
But those which separate a lot on velo and shape are still good
Kopech getting traded to the Dodgers, Yankees etc and turning into a lights out reliever was inevitable. I think Ethan Katz/White Sox big league pitching coaching/development is actually pretty good, but it's a shame they weren't able to unlock him this year.
Looks at his final starts with the Sox, he finally listened to the Sox coaching staff after basically saying he wasn't before. His change was going to happen just sucks the Sox sold him so early.
@@Gooseman8819 Yep. He mentioned that specifically after the immaculate inning, you're right.
Would’ve been a huge piece to have him shoving on the Sox, even without much hope of contention
Learned that Anthony Banda trained at Tread Athletics this offseason, so the Dodgers can't claim all of his success. Had hot velo numbers at their pro day back in spring.
I'd be surprised if you don't already sub to Tread on UA-cam, but if you don't, you should: www.youtube.com/@treadathletics
bryan woo breakdown? might be crazy but if he can stay on the field i think he will be in the running for cy next year.
He’s fun! In my list of guys to potentially do something on soon, if not this offseason 👍
Funny enough Uceta actually began his career in LA, glad he’s doing well
The circle of life haha
@@LanceBroz 😂
Go Dodgers!!😤💙
Dodgers were able to increase his velocity? Hmm. Must be why so many Dodgers have TJ surgery.
Do you want good pitchers? Throw hard. Do you want injuries? Throw hard.
The natural counter is “command the ball.” If that was an effective way to pitch and reliably trained, more teams would take that approach, but they haven’t. 🤷♂️
Tough balance. LAD also takes on a ton of risk in terms of preexisting injuries.
Dodgers push their pitchers beyond their limits
And they’ve been top ~5 in ERA 2 of the last 3 seasons 🤷♂️
What are your thoughts on Ben Joyce’s recent success?
Velo is king👑
@@aidanwong4858fair but his fastball isn’t that great shape wise I don’t think, I wonder if it’s due to splinker which seems to be trending for most low slot higher velo guys
Velo is king haha
I think it’s just super hard to hit a ball 103+. Hitters just have no mental map for that. Goes back to the idea that as velo keeps climbing it becomes more and more advantageous to throw even harder and harder.
I do think he could be throwing a harder version of his slider. That velo separation is big off the 4S and I think it’s pigeon hole-ing him into the fastballs (thankfully he has 2).
And I think he should be more SK to RHH than he is.
@@LanceBroz what’s his repertoire right now to be honest I thought he was only FB SL and Splinker (would splinker be SPK?)
When the Dodgers stop having a carousel of pitchers end up on the IL due to Tommy John surgery, then that'll be headline news.
When any team does that and has a successful staff, it’ll be news
Until then, the sharp organizations will continue to prize velocity (and be tolerant to injury) until somebody proves there’s a better way 🤷♂️
Two questions, why throw cutter and slider if they are such a similar pitch? Why do you think he got rid of his change up and curveball? I remember the curve being a somewhat an effective pitch for him.
I’m actually not sure if it’s 2 pitches. My guess is that’s it’s unintentional and he’s just getting around the pitch, same orientation. So it’s 1, but it’s tagged as 2 🤷♂️
And that was likely an attempt to just simplify. They were just trying to get him around the zone
I don’t think either are too necessary right now but they could become necessary
Or he played bad on purpose to get the hell outta there haha
Off topic. The Mariners rotation has the hardest FF velo in MLB but also the most amount of IP, they're also top 3 in almost all other pitch types in velo
You'd expect a rotation that leads MLB in IP to not be the hardest throwing rotation in the majors (harder velo is a big stressor in arms, hard breaking balls as well). Have the Mariners figured something out with velo and workload?
Idk about the other stuff, but the slider/breaking velo could because of what shapes the mariners like(looks like gyro). Miller,Gilbert, and Castillo all have really similar sliders in terms of vertical break. Kirby isn’t far off and Woo is just a freak
And the funnier thing is that they throw lowest number of 4S in the minors!
Maybe they have. I do think they’re pretty sharp. I wonder how much it helps to have similar age guys all on the same staff learning from each other. Seems like they’re all making adjustments so quick. Props to SEA for allowing that, don’t think all orgs would.
Might be hard to separate their individual pitchers health from the greater health of their organization.
In the end, I think anybody who throws hard is going to pop. I’d like to think they have the secret sauce though.
Might be something for me to look into 👍
When they fix Bobby Miller I’ll give credit to the Dodger pitching coaches, but as of right now they are frauds.
Lol
The guy who had shoulder issues and hadn't pitched most of the season?
😂😂😂
Already a bounce back pick of mine for 2025, too easy
Dodgers can fix almost anybody
Is there a publicly available way to see teams catcher location?
There isn’t unfortunately. Thats Hawkeye data that might never really break into the public space
But it would be super cool
Pure intent from the pitcher will always be best and that is probably impossible to get. But I bet you could get a pretty great command model based on catcher and where a pitcher *should* be throwing a pitch