I think Smith's arm action hides the ball really well, paired with the low slot it gets on hitters quick, additionally has a good shape against the RHH bat path
Is chase burns quite similar to a tyler glasnow type? Their releases definitely are different but it seems like they have really similar pitch traits/arsenals/ top release points. That definitely makes me think that he would be elite with a sinker
Glasnow is just so huge with outlier extension that I tend to not comp him to anybody, I just think the body and stride influence his results so much. So I’d go more like Fairbanks, Cease, McKenzie with Burns. To your sinker point though - yes, I think it’s inevitable Burns has a sinker that’s very good to righties
I’d also rank Burns ahead of Smith, for the reasons you mentioned. I kinda wonder if Smith might be a future closer, where his two pitches and ability to get in-zone swing and miss might really play up in shorter bursts, as might his velo, particularly on his slider. There’s something about his release, visually, that reminds me a tiny bit of the old lefty closer Randy Myers from the early-mid 90s, who was also primarily fastball/slider. I think Myers may have had a slightly higher arm slot, but I kinda remember it seeming like he was leaning back diagonally at release, rather than straight up and down, if that makes sense, which may have created a lower actual release and maybe flatter approach angle. I was a little kid when he pitched, so I’m relying on childhood memory here, and obviously we don’t have metrics, but there’s probably some footage of Myers somewhere in the deep recesses of UA-cam that we can use to make some qualitative comparisons.
I like it! Always dig fun, old school comps. I have Hagen as a starter because I think the command is too good to resort to RP. I get he gives off that vibe with 2 pitches and the funky slot though
Just came across your channel and I’m obsessed! Where did you get all of the advanced stats from? I watch way more college than MLB and have always been annoyed by lack of data
Great channel, love the information given. I prefer Hagen Smith on this one after watching it play out. SEC has churned out talent in recent years and his stuff coming from the left side is somewhat rare. He hides the ball well and although Burns' numbers are gaudy, % wise Smith's are equal to those numbers. I think he gets to the show faster given he went Chicago while Burns will face a ballpark that is known to have the ball fly out of it. Hunter Greene has similar issue that I believe Burns will. CWS, although bad currently, have shown they can work with arms as well (Cease, Crochet, Thorpe, etc.), and the park is more forgiving. It's close enough that Burns may be the better pitcher, but Smith may have the better start to his career.
Good thoughts! Thanks for sharing. It’s always tough for me to apply team context to this stuff. I think we get caught up in it too much. And it’s super tough in this case because Smith gets to work with Bannister and Burns goes to a terrible park. But should that affect how we view their skills? Maybe it should affect their projections but that feels a bit different than who I would select in the draft Tough one! Totally see your point. Greene somehow figured out his HR problem this year and I can’t find anything that’s different
@@LanceBroz I see what you mean, but trying to split their skills is a micro type assessment. In the Macro, they both have the same in looking like front of the rotation arms. There's players with better skills than some HOF'ers, that aren't HOF'ers or didn't even have long tenures in the league. I'm sure signing money played into it some as well for teams and what they're willing to dedicate to a player. We've seen that in years past where lesser players are drafted higher to save funds. Point being, they've both put themselves in the same category as each other, and so the productivity and trajectory could easily be decided by their situations that they're going into.
If I’m an org like oak/colorado even stl who haven’t had much success developing pitchers the last few years I think Hagen smith is the guy. Idk about the pitch shapes per se but he’s got that side arm fastball/slider look that is just death to hitters. Sale/Randy Johnson made a career out of largely commanding 2 pitches. He seems like he could be up this year or next. If Cleveland ever decided to take a pitcher, or he fell to Pittsburg/detroit/boston they could really tinker and get the most out of Chase Burns. Both seem like stuff gods but I like Hagen Smith’s command and readiness over projecting Burns
I dig that explanation! I do think Smith is a bit more unbreakable if that makes sense. Burns worries me if he goes to COL. If Burns goes to COL and Smith goes elsewhere, I’d rank Smith higher on a prospect list.
Yeah, exactly. You’re actually going to pick up vert if you cut the ball a bit Some of the best 4S profiles have below avg arm side I do think there’s another pitch in here, I just think it’s a hard death ball style curve first along with a sinker
Do you prefer swing and miss rate over swinging strike rate (S&M uses swings as the denominator whereas SS uses total pitches)? I think S&M rate can be skewed if guys just throw the pitch out of the zone a ton, because it can have a high S&M rate but never get swings. I think SS rate paints a better overall picture.
Yeah, I use both. I tend to lean on whiff for some reason in these videos. It’s important to consider zone / chase alongside raw whiff for sure. Good note. I’ll try to start transitioning
you mentioned Burns in COL picking up a splitter but with his high release height already do you think there’s a good chance teams would opt to ditch his CH for a splitter? or even a Splinker with how much more popular that pitch has become recently? he’d be even more of a nightmare for RHH and also help his LHH troubles with the split + a cutter like you mentioned which seems like a no brainer.
Yeah, I meant change the changeup into a split, rather than add. My bad if that wasn’t clear! Splinker is generally for lower slot guys who throw 98+ it seems. I think split and some kind of 2S/sink for Burns would be great, but the more pressing issue is figuring out the lefty issues with some kind of second slider / cutter, yep
Conditions at wake forest will also invoice the flight of the ball. Most of his outings are at low elevation with his air density. This is going to jack up induced vertical break. I still think burns is a dude.
Environment effects of different college parks definitely have an impact as well. In my head, I’m basically taking 1” of movement vert and hrz off everything I see. And I’m not entirely sure that’s enough.
I 1000% agree !! I was initially dreaming on the 60 grade hit tool and 70 power of Condon in Great American SMALL park but it's harder I guess to get elite pitchers to sign as free agents so drafting them HAS TO BE THE WAY LOL
Definitely Burns. The way you talk about Burns makes me comp him to Dylan Cease (high release point, elite ivb, wipeout slider), whereas Smith reminds me more of Andrew Abbott or Jesus Luzardo. Both definitely have good stuff but I'd rather take Burns to _chase_ the higher upside.
I think he’s too good of a hitter to let pitching pull away from development time of his bat. He’s fine as a pitcher. Don’t like the 4S traits. Best pitch was a changeup that is too slow, slider is more cutter and didn’t generate whiffs.
If Im the rockies Id take Hagen, He might be cheaper, the stuff will play better at coors, as well as Burns may be more prone to injuries with the higher Velo. Rockies seem to enjoy funky lefties like sean sullivan or carson palmquist .
I like the look of Hagen Smith more than Burns, if only because I think he offers a more unique look in terms of stuff and release. Chase Burns' repetoire depth is enticing, but I do think some of the scouting grades overstate the quality of each pitch (all very good, but mayhe not truly "elite" imo). I think Burns is more projectible, but Smith has better upside. I personally don't know if I would spend a top 5 pick in this year's draft on either if these two. Not blown away by either, but both have real upside.
It’s funny cause I actually think Burns is in that spot where his stuff grades out much better than it actually performs. His stuff is great, easily the best raw stuff in the draft I think
Did you read the fangraphs article about burns comparing to degrom? Side note: Is there any statistic saying to throw a low IVB fastball above the zone? I ask because Phil maton(another fangraphs article)did it a ton two years ago and then not a word since
I didn’t but deGrom is not a comp for Burns imo, very different shapes, release characteristics and approaches. Velo up on fastball usually means velo up on everything. We’re seeing slider velo jump up too. I think the Maton stuff is a bit too galaxy brain. Nobody is going to encourage low iVB above the zone, where your strike probability is low. If a last resort for a bad pitcher, fine.
I think Smith's arm action hides the ball really well, paired with the low slot it gets on hitters quick, additionally has a good shape against the RHH bat path
I think similarly to Joe Ryan whose lagging arm action helps his fastball play up
Yeah, the far 1B side delivery creates a weird angle for a lot of guys I think
Is chase burns quite similar to a tyler glasnow type? Their releases definitely are different but it seems like they have really similar pitch traits/arsenals/ top release points. That definitely makes me think that he would be elite with a sinker
Glasnow is just so huge with outlier extension that I tend to not comp him to anybody, I just think the body and stride influence his results so much.
So I’d go more like Fairbanks, Cease, McKenzie with Burns.
To your sinker point though - yes, I think it’s inevitable Burns has a sinker that’s very good to righties
I’d also rank Burns ahead of Smith, for the reasons you mentioned. I kinda wonder if Smith might be a future closer, where his two pitches and ability to get in-zone swing and miss might really play up in shorter bursts, as might his velo, particularly on his slider. There’s something about his release, visually, that reminds me a tiny bit of the old lefty closer Randy Myers from the early-mid 90s, who was also primarily fastball/slider. I think Myers may have had a slightly higher arm slot, but I kinda remember it seeming like he was leaning back diagonally at release, rather than straight up and down, if that makes sense, which may have created a lower actual release and maybe flatter approach angle. I was a little kid when he pitched, so I’m relying on childhood memory here, and obviously we don’t have metrics, but there’s probably some footage of Myers somewhere in the deep recesses of UA-cam that we can use to make some qualitative comparisons.
I like it! Always dig fun, old school comps.
I have Hagen as a starter because I think the command is too good to resort to RP. I get he gives off that vibe with 2 pitches and the funky slot though
Just came across your channel and I’m obsessed! Where did you get all of the advanced stats from? I watch way more college than MLB and have always been annoyed by lack of data
A source of mine gives me college data. Wish it was easier to access publicly
@@LanceBroz dang. I figured as much lol
Great channel, love the information given. I prefer Hagen Smith on this one after watching it play out. SEC has churned out talent in recent years and his stuff coming from the left side is somewhat rare. He hides the ball well and although Burns' numbers are gaudy, % wise Smith's are equal to those numbers. I think he gets to the show faster given he went Chicago while Burns will face a ballpark that is known to have the ball fly out of it. Hunter Greene has similar issue that I believe Burns will. CWS, although bad currently, have shown they can work with arms as well (Cease, Crochet, Thorpe, etc.), and the park is more forgiving. It's close enough that Burns may be the better pitcher, but Smith may have the better start to his career.
Good thoughts! Thanks for sharing.
It’s always tough for me to apply team context to this stuff. I think we get caught up in it too much. And it’s super tough in this case because Smith gets to work with Bannister and Burns goes to a terrible park.
But should that affect how we view their skills? Maybe it should affect their projections but that feels a bit different than who I would select in the draft
Tough one! Totally see your point. Greene somehow figured out his HR problem this year and I can’t find anything that’s different
@@LanceBroz I see what you mean, but trying to split their skills is a micro type assessment. In the Macro, they both have the same in looking like front of the rotation arms. There's players with better skills than some HOF'ers, that aren't HOF'ers or didn't even have long tenures in the league. I'm sure signing money played into it some as well for teams and what they're willing to dedicate to a player. We've seen that in years past where lesser players are drafted higher to save funds. Point being, they've both put themselves in the same category as each other, and so the productivity and trajectory could easily be decided by their situations that they're going into.
Cardinals will definitely take either of them if they are available at 7. I don’t see it happening at this point, but it would be nice.
If I’m an org like oak/colorado even stl who haven’t had much success developing pitchers the last few years I think Hagen smith is the guy. Idk about the pitch shapes per se but he’s got that side arm fastball/slider look that is just death to hitters. Sale/Randy Johnson made a career out of largely commanding 2 pitches. He seems like he could be up this year or next. If Cleveland ever decided to take a pitcher, or he fell to Pittsburg/detroit/boston they could really tinker and get the most out of Chase Burns. Both seem like stuff gods but I like Hagen Smith’s command and readiness over projecting Burns
I dig that explanation! I do think Smith is a bit more unbreakable if that makes sense. Burns worries me if he goes to COL. If Burns goes to COL and Smith goes elsewhere, I’d rank Smith higher on a prospect list.
Burns already having low armside run on his 4-seam makes me hopeful that a nasty cutter is in the cards for him.
ASR is not the end all be all if you have vert
Yeah, exactly. You’re actually going to pick up vert if you cut the ball a bit
Some of the best 4S profiles have below avg arm side
I do think there’s another pitch in here, I just think it’s a hard death ball style curve first along with a sinker
@fredreickweaver809 all he needs is a cutter for lefties and he's in the bigs
Love your videos man🎉
Thanks!
Do you prefer swing and miss rate over swinging strike rate (S&M uses swings as the denominator whereas SS uses total pitches)? I think S&M rate can be skewed if guys just throw the pitch out of the zone a ton, because it can have a high S&M rate but never get swings. I think SS rate paints a better overall picture.
Yeah, I use both. I tend to lean on whiff for some reason in these videos. It’s important to consider zone / chase alongside raw whiff for sure.
Good note. I’ll try to start transitioning
you mentioned Burns in COL picking up a splitter but with his high release height already do you think there’s a good chance teams would opt to ditch his CH for a splitter? or even a Splinker with how much more popular that pitch has become recently? he’d be even more of a nightmare for RHH and also help his LHH troubles with the split + a cutter like you mentioned which seems like a no brainer.
Yeah, I meant change the changeup into a split, rather than add. My bad if that wasn’t clear!
Splinker is generally for lower slot guys who throw 98+ it seems. I think split and some kind of 2S/sink for Burns would be great, but the more pressing issue is figuring out the lefty issues with some kind of second slider / cutter, yep
Conditions at wake forest will also invoice the flight of the ball. Most of his outings are at low elevation with his air density. This is going to jack up induced vertical break. I still think burns is a dude.
Environment effects of different college parks definitely have an impact as well.
In my head, I’m basically taking 1” of movement vert and hrz off everything I see. And I’m not entirely sure that’s enough.
Reds are building an elite rotation.
I 1000% agree !! I was initially dreaming on the 60 grade hit tool and 70 power of Condon in Great American SMALL park but it's harder I guess to get elite pitchers to sign as free agents so drafting them HAS TO BE THE WAY LOL
The Reds took Burns 2nd overall in the draft!
Both will be studs book it only thing that might prevent it is injury
if yesavage and caminiti are both there at 13 who do you think the giants should take?
Yesavage, I like him a lot
Definitely Burns. The way you talk about Burns makes me comp him to Dylan Cease (high release point, elite ivb, wipeout slider), whereas Smith reminds me more of Andrew Abbott or Jesus Luzardo. Both definitely have good stuff but I'd rather take Burns to _chase_ the higher upside.
Yeah! Fair comps on both those guys. 👍
@@LanceBroz Andrew Abbott has nowhere near the same strikeout ability as Smith.
What are your thoughts abt Jac Caglione (excuse me for the spelling 💀) as a pitcher
I think he’s too good of a hitter to let pitching pull away from development time of his bat.
He’s fine as a pitcher. Don’t like the 4S traits. Best pitch was a changeup that is too slow, slider is more cutter and didn’t generate whiffs.
@@LanceBroz what’s wrong with his fastball and I agree I just wonder if people will try to buy in to the two way potential
hagen was the best pitcher in college this year idc what anyone says try and change my mind
If Im the rockies Id take Hagen, He might be cheaper, the stuff will play better at coors, as well as Burns may be more prone to injuries with the higher Velo. Rockies seem to enjoy funky lefties like sean sullivan or carson palmquist .
Smith has more of an injury history than Burns does funnily enough
I wish the Guardians would pick Hagen Smith.
I think I’d take any of the 3 hitters (JJ, Bazzana, Condon) over these 2 arms
Guards haven’t had the best success developing hitters
I like the look of Hagen Smith more than Burns, if only because I think he offers a more unique look in terms of stuff and release. Chase Burns' repetoire depth is enticing, but I do think some of the scouting grades overstate the quality of each pitch (all very good, but mayhe not truly "elite" imo). I think Burns is more projectible, but Smith has better upside. I personally don't know if I would spend a top 5 pick in this year's draft on either if these two. Not blown away by either, but both have real upside.
It’s funny cause I actually think Burns is in that spot where his stuff grades out much better than it actually performs. His stuff is great, easily the best raw stuff in the draft I think
Smith is a high school TJ survivor. No thanks that high in the draft.
Every pitcher is going to get TJ at some point 🤷♂️
I will take Hagen Smith. I think Chase Burns will be a reliever,because of his mechanics. Dillon Tate deja vu.
Did you read the fangraphs article about burns comparing to degrom? Side note: Is there any statistic saying to throw a low IVB fastball above the zone? I ask because Phil maton(another fangraphs article)did it a ton two years ago and then not a word since
And are we experiencing a changeup velo revolution? Small sample(250 pitches or more),but 47 guys average 89.5 or more on there changeups
Sorry really curious, but does heaneys slider with dodgers work out as a good comp to smith’s?
I didn’t but deGrom is not a comp for Burns imo, very different shapes, release characteristics and approaches.
Velo up on fastball usually means velo up on everything. We’re seeing slider velo jump up too.
I think the Maton stuff is a bit too galaxy brain. Nobody is going to encourage low iVB above the zone, where your strike probability is low. If a last resort for a bad pitcher, fine.
It was more results based than actual comp. Something to do with his walk strikeout and hr rate,bad on my part