I really like the way how the NPB players works in the MLB, they made the baseball great like the old school baseball was, I hope MLB and NPB could review their agreements to sign players and seen those young guys doing his job.
How havent you blown up yet. Was here since you were the only one with good Yamamoto analysis and data. How arent you at least at 100k almost a year later is a mystery. You go deeper than anybody. Please keep at it, the algorithm will pick up on you 💯 youre just too good
By the way. You were spot on regarding Yamamoto werent you mate? After the early scare he became exactly what you said he would. What a monster he is. And with all that big game experience.. the world series didnt faze him one bit; he locked in and was deadly.
The NYY was popular in Japan until Hideo Nomo went to MLB. The key moment when the Japanese became suspicious of the NYY was when they released Hideki Matsui, the MVP of the World Series, without signing him.
Ohtani deferred his contract cause he knows good players from Japan are on their way to the Dodgers it's their culture to let others have a piece of the pie too
If he wants to go to MLB, I think it would be odd if it wasn't to the Dodgers. They just offer so much more than any other team. Perfect weather, local Japanese community, and Japanese players that can help ease the cultural transition. Another team would have to offer him so much more money and even then the Dodgers can just match the offer if they really want him.
They don't match lol they differ the money. Which made them favorites for the WS. Something yankees could have done but MLB said no! Why is that? That question was never answered properly.
The Padres also have a possibility to acquire him. I am Japanese and I can say more Japanese pitchers (includes Sasaki) admire Darvish than Ohtani and Yamamoto as a pitcher. And Darvish definitely has been or will be recruiting Sasaki to join the Padres.
@@ivanriverajr5012wtf are you talking about 😂 every player in mlb can defer their money but they choose not to. only ohtani have the balls to do it because he doesnt care about the money. the guy also earns 50 mil a yr on endorsements alone
Sasaki is under the age of 25. Therefore if he decides to go to MLB this off season, he can only get a minor league contract. Just like Ohtani in 2018. So the Dodgers or any other team cannot offer him a lot of money.
Eno Saris said something about how pitches that are I believe 12-15 MPH less than your fastball get a ton of takes, so I really agree with the curveball being a good thing to add. Even if in a vacuum the pitch is a bad pitch from stuff+ perspective, it can still be a net positive.
Eno is the man! Yeah, he apparently has a curve in his back pocket, just never throws it (at least that's what I've been made aware of). Even if it's not good in shape, I think it's a pitch to flash 0-0 to steal strikes and keep hitters from seeing more 4S.
@@LanceBroz It is always an interesting question how much value does adding an additional pitch to your arsenal, even if in a vacuum it is a negative pitch. I believe eno talked about Garrett Crochet bringing back his curveball even though it isn't elite, but a way to steal some strikes.
He's a Dodgers. Playing with his WBC teammates Ohtani & Yamamato would be stress free. Plus he doesn't have to be the hero. Take a year to learn and get use to MLB like how Yamamato did. Yamamato was in the perfect place to succeed.
Good vid. Read the article too. Sasaki certainly does seem hogtied, but then again MLB Exec's have a knack for negotiating side agreements that don't show up on the roster salary books, if you know what I mean. For example, if a one time side payment of 30-50m, or an equivalent deal on domestic Japanese TV and team merch deal could be made to dislodged Sasaki, that would allow for an 11m signing bonus on a 3-4 year deal at 5m a year in player salary. That's a fantastic steal of a deal for a pitcher like Sasaki to get him to a team like LAD, NYY, the Mets, Padres, or whoever. I'm betting on the Dodgers to already have such a creative deal on the table since last year. And this year, seeing the Japanese domestic TV deal and merchandising mania that shot through the roof thanks to Ohtani's first World Series, getting a side agreement in place to overcome the controlling teams projected losses, is really easy peasy. Again, doing some kind of side agreement on a cut of Japanese domestic merch and TV rev is dead easy, but only for the Dodgers. See what I mean?
I hope not! The Japanese media really went on a negative campaign against him this year, and one of the made-up rumors was about some side deals between his handlers and the Dodgers. When he was sidelined for about two months, the media really went rampant and accused him of slacking off on the Dodgers's orders.
I know it doesn’t make sense for him to come to my Detroit Tigers but I think he’d fit really well. We also have elite pitching coach and he wouldn’t have to be an elite starter he would be a mid rotation arm for us.
Everyone technically has no choice to but offer the same contract, its really up to him where he wants to go, its probably going to be one of the top 5 teams with the highest market so he can make a bunch of money off the field.
Nice takes. Personally i feel his home team will be trying to milk any mlb suitors for huge sums of money, mainly because of what yamamoto got. Last offseason afaik that Sasaki asked his team to post him but the team declined.
Not if he leaves this year or next year. He's have to sign a contract like Ohtani did in 2018 when he first came over because he'd still be under 25. If he signs this year or next his NPB team would get almost nothing. If he waits a couple years then he can sign a huge free agent contract.
I dont think his elbow is gonna get injured anytime soon, I think its either shoulder or oblique injury. he has a very snappy quick torso and his arm path is more like a volleyball spike.
Awesome stuff as always. Just wondering here with the potential pitches he might add, do you think he could add some kind of harder maybe higher IVB cutter? Doesn't help with the potential righty problems, but still a way to get hitters off the fastball and it might work better with his unique splitter profile. Just spitballing here, wondering what you think
As a reds fan, imagine a hunter greene fastball with a fernando cruz splitter, both of those pitches are i believe top 15 individual pitches put that into one pitcher and you have ROTY
When Japanese pitchers move to MLB, their ball speed increases. The reason for this is the height and hardness of the mound. The reason is that the mound in NPB is low and soft, so it is difficult for the power from the lower body to be transmitted. This is what Darvish said on UA-cam. The main reason for Sasaki's decline in speed this season is that he changed his pitching form in order to throw more sliders. Former MLB player and current Lotte manager Yoshii has commented on the decline in speed. He has said that it will take time to return to his old pitching form.
The new meta, create an atmosphere for a core group of NPB elite players. Dodgers did it and got WS 1/1 and play offs wins on its first damn try. San Diego, Mets, Cubs etc might be interested in replicating.
How do you get access to these kinds of stats and how can I teach myself to even just scratch the surface of what you know besides just watching yt, I want to be able to apply it in my future so I can build on the base knowledge I already have, these videos are extremely informational and I would love to pick your brain more on other topics not specifically related to specific players.
Everything that I mention in this video is public for MLB -- UA-cam some tutorials on how to use the search function on Baseball Savant -- baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search Read FanGraphs too, following the links within stories, which often do a great job explaining fundamental concepts which more complex stories are built on.
Hot take, but I think he should adapt to a swingman or closer role. Save his arm, keep his stuff nasty etc. He definitely wasn't throwing max effort every pitch in 24' unlike in 23' in order to increase his innings. With less total innings (seasonally) he will probably perform at an elite level in MLB. Excellent video as always!
Definitely a chance of that! But his earnings upside is *substantially* higher if SP. And if he has his pick of teams, why wouldn't he go to the place that would want him to start. Surely an MLB team would take a chance on that and then convert to RP long term or something.
No ways, and it wouldn't necessarily be saving his arm. He's way more valuable as a starter. With his talent you want him pitching 160+ innings a year rather than 60-70.
I am guessing it might because he wanted to be more effortless in throwing fastball and increase his durability, which was his major problem. So he choose to increase extension so he didn’t need to maintain 99mph. 97 with 7ft extension should be far from his 99 with 6.3 extension. Actually in 2024, he did manage to stay deeper in innings, this is something Japanese really care. Like shinnosuke ogasawara lower his fastball fell to stay in game either. Besides I don’t think he can get posted before end of 2025 seasons. Hope MLB and him can make it happend.
More vertical releases angle and more extension also related to less control, which can also explain his control issue. So that’s fair that he want to enter MLB so hard even consider he had to accept milb deals now as under 25 teens. Because he want to study breaking ball here and adjust his mechanics
In 2024 he pitched an extra 20 innings according to the stats shown. However, he also pitched in three more games. I don't know how that breaks down exactly, maybe he did some relief pitching or something, but assuming he didn't that is only three extra games of 6 2/3 inning ball. Not a HUGE increase tbh. Either way, the change with more extension didn't seem to pay off much. Only positive I can see is if it's putting significantly less strain on his elbow.
I doubt it's intentional. However, this is a question for which there likely is no public answer. My main concern is that he's sending the same energy through his kinetic chain as he did when he was sitting 99, it's just not being lost somewhere in that chain (he's less efficient). You'd probably have to confirm this via kinatrax or a biomech report. But if he's less efficient in his sequencing, or he's compensating somewhere, then there's a chance he's creating the same amount of torque on his arm but the output is slower. Which I don't think would help stamina. He'll just be a worse pitcher. It sounds like somebody else in the comments is suggesting there's an interview where he says he's intentionally throwing 80%? That would be interesting, but the shape changed too much for me to think everything is totally fine.
@@LanceBroz Masato Yoshii, the current Chiba Lotte manager and Sasaki's former coach, said that his form has changed a bit, which impacted his ability to throw over 160km this year, and he'll be working on correcting that during the offseason.
also sasaki has said he throws 2 split variations, one he cuts and one he doesn't. not uncommon for Japanese pitchers, koji uehara has said on his youtube channels that he threw 4 different splitter variations.
Yeah I have been saying for a couple of years now he cuts and fades his splitter depending on handedness. Though I think he did it less this season than in the past. I think the shape of the pitch is still gyro though so not sure how he gets it to fade with gyro movement other than finger pressure.
@@brandonttew just watching it feels like there's a big rpm difference between the one he cuts and the one he doesn't. maybe that explains it. the one he doesn't looks like it has almost knucle ball esq spin rates while the other spins more.
It's almost amusing that everyone is talking as though he's definitely playing in the States next year. The ball is in his team's hands (Lotte Marines) and they're not an MLB farm team. While Yamamoto's former team was paid 50 million in posting fees, Lotte will only get 1million max if he comes now. I mean, who would let a young ace of his caliber still under team control leave for just 1 million?
@dshyon I am amazed. Though I'm not a fan of his team and mostly watch MLB, there's no meaning of young players under team control anymore. This will become a bad example and Japanese players will pressure their team to post them whenever they please. NPB has truly become an MLB farm.
@@shin12357 What a garbage take. You think Ohtani will be the player he is today if he stayed in Japan? Roki played well for his team, and his team in turn did him a favour by posting him. Team shouldn't own players, they are not slaves for you amusement. Greatest athlete seeks the greatest challenge, and for baseball that is MLB. Plenty of Japanese players fail and drop out of MLB, like the Yoshi dude the Rays paid for. Its an extreme risk to go to a new country, play in new environment and learn new language while they could just be sitting in the comfort of their home and cash in on their existing fan base. You should be grateful there are still athlete out there willing to take the challenge.
@@mebite839 Must I remind you the Japanese baseball league Roki belongs to isn't amateur but professional. Players are under team control until free agency just like the MLB. So yes, they are "owned" in both leagues. You call them slaves, I call them players under contract. Roki wanted to the MLB last year after only 4 years of service. This is his 5th year and he hasn't thrown over 400 innings, 29 wins total and many Japanese fans are pissed since he's leaving without much contribution. Whether or not his team happily posted him is very questionable and they are speculations they just gave in since his motivation for playing in Japan has diminished creating a bad atmosphere within the team. We should be grateful?! I understand the challenge mentality but you left out the business side of the Japanese league because you just don't care or have any respect for this part. Yamamoto's former team received 50 million dollars from the posting. Roki's team will receive slightly more than 1 million because he wouldn't wait 2 more years. Initially he's under team control for 9 years(for players who want to play in MLB) but they're letting him go after 5 and getting almost nothing in return. So you should be grateful his team is sacrificing lots of money so you could enjoy watching him play in the MLB.
@@shin12357 Buddy, Ohtani is the one who laid the foundation to coming to MLB early. Last time I checked Ohtani is a god over there, nobody is complaining he ditched his old team. So which is it? If you or Japan support Ohtani then you have to extend the same favour to everyone else. Don't even bring this whole "business" garbage. Boo, Billionaire owns are losing money, sale the team then? Roki is not the one who made the posting system, why should he or any player suffer because of it?
Looks like there is very little chance of him being a dodger now. He has dealt with so many injuries in Japan he has finally realized that he might not last six years in the MLB. It’s too risky for him to pass up on $300-$400 million considering his injury history. Which is why he’s going to stay in Japan for the next two years and then cash in. The truth is it the Dodgers are not going to spend big money on a pitcher that is so unlikely to stay healthy. They have dealt with too many injury plagued pitchers to add another one on a big contract. If he came this year for the league minimum then absolutely. But not if he comes in 2027, and that’s when it looks like he’s coming.
He should go to the Padres or Rays IMO. The Dodgers just let his goons make their own routines that's why they always get hurt, they don't have a coach that can yell at them to follow their own programs.
MLB ball stitches are thicker than JPB ball leather stitches. Therefore pitchers can put more spin on MLB ball for bigger move. Simple data comparisons on ball movements don’t seem very accountable.
At first, I would think he will go to the Dodgers automatically. But I think about it more , he might go to the Yankees and take the Dodgers down. It’s more fun for him to build his own legacy than being in the shadows of Yamamoto and Ohtani.
Many fans (Especially Lotte Marines fans) in Japan are now criticizing Sasaki for not pitching at full strength, trying to protect his arm for when he goes to MLB. Personally, I believe in this.
With Sasaki’s velocity and pitch movement, are there specific MLB teams or pitching coaches who’d be especially well-suited to help him transition to the majors? For instance, the Cleveland Guardians have a great track record for developing pitchers with strong fastball-slider combinations, like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and they’re known for building on a player’s strengths while making key adjustments for MLB success. Do you think a team like Cleveland could be a good fit for Sasaki, or might another organization be better equipped to bring out his unique skill set
Well I think the Dodgers are a great fit, particularly because I think his SL needs some rework and LAD crushes that development with most of their pitchers. I think the Twins do a great job on the biomech side of things, unlikely he goes there, but they’d be a great team to get him back to 2023 movement patterns and shapes. You’re on the right track though! Guardians would be fun. Just have to wonder what he’s valuing in this process.
Roki had an 'off' year in the NPB last year, I would bet he will be better next season. He will play in Japan next season and I think he wants the Sawumura award before he leaves.
Insane talent. No doubt. But, his body is still that of a boy, not a grown man. He won't be able to pitch every 4th day in the States, given his fragile body. A team that signs him must be patient with him. Rushing him before he is fully developed will break him.
Hiroya Miyagi, left-handed pitcher, same age as Sasaki, former teammate of Yamamoto, same type as Cubs' Imanaga, one of the best left-handed pitchers in the NPB
Yeah! It's a pretty big deal. Usually a small adaptation period for pitchers when they come over. Shota talked about this a bit with the Cubs, and I imagine other pitchers have as well.
Is it possible that his step back in stuff this year had to do with him trying to pace himself so he doesn’t burn his arm out in the Japanese league? He is clearly not interested in pitching there anymore
IMO better velo, slightly worse command. Nastier stuff but availability is not his forte. To put it in simple, he's raw Jacob deGrom with more pitching arsenal. If your team's pretty rich, have a great pitching lab, physio & medical team you want to go hard to sign him.
Yamamoto was a workhorse in NPB. Different ball & different pitch rule, he missed a lot of games. If that can happened to Yamamoto, then you have to be more patient with Sasaki because of his injuries history in NPB
*now analyze the veteran Sugano Tomoyuki, who's a veteran looking to play in the MLB next year, filthy season with Yomiuri Giants 15-3 and sub 2 ERA* *only drawback, 35*
@ maybe 3-5 years 6-15mil max per year. Since he makes about 5m right now. He will be affordable for most, maybe 75-100m max due to age. The control is off the charts with about 5 pitches, 2 junk split / curve finishers if he's ahead.
MLB and Japan Baseball will need to stop age restriction, then Sasaki has a chance to come earlier. Sasaki worlds best pitcher is NOT coming to a foreign land to make minimum. He will enjoy Japan comfort zone and follow Yamamoto path. Sasaki will eventually make 40M+ per year, ten year contract = 500M+ for pitching GOAT. So it's a unrealistic dream for a MLB team to pay him only 2M per year minimum.
there is no age restirction rule in Japan. what you are saying is about MLB rule that says MLB teams can sign international players under 25 to only a minor league contract COme on man
He is undoubtedly the best pitcher in the history of Japanese baseball. His pitching ability is higher than Darvish, Otani, and Yamamoto. His average pitch speed is 158 km/h, his control is not bad, and he has pitched 17 perfect innings. However, he still has the body of a child, and does not have the stamina to maintain the four-day rotation that is required in the major leagues.
@@Cliffem82 I don't think we can judge his durability just based on his record in Japan as there are so many variables. This year, the Japanese media really went after him, releasing (made up) negative stories on a daily basis. Plus, Japan and Korea suffered from record heat and those countries were hotter than Thailand or The Philippines. He is from a cooler climate.
I think he means most talented and potentially being the best pitcher. Come on, it is an english issue, cant you see? He also means fastball speed, not pitch speed.
Why does this guy’s pitches look like a white dust or puff of air comes up when he throws? Is that something to do with the tacky ball in Japan? Looks wild
Link? I didn't see this. His fastball shape changed enough, along with the shutdown for "poor condition of his right arm," that makes me think there's not 100% truth in that statement. But that's just my gut reaction, I could be wrong.
@@LanceBroz ua-cam.com/video/3IZ7gzv6DWA/v-deo.html this is a yakyu cosmopolitan video where he refers to there comments. around the 20:30 mark is where yakyu cosmo mentions it. I initially heard the manager make this claim early in the npb season, specifically saying roki was trying to slow his body down. Later in the year there was a stretch of 6 starts where he averaged 98 on the fastball, he is questioned about wether there has been a change in approach, and he answers that he has just figured the sequencing out.
@@LanceBroz his fastball velo was down again to finish the year but by my recollection that has been the case every year of his career. considering that he has been going deeper into games, 120 pitches pretty regularly fatigue makes sense.
I mean with a 30M/year contract you're supposed to perform right away but at 0.7M? Even a year or two in the minors won't be a burden to the team. I think that's why he wants to come not as a free agent. About the consensus he's already a Dodger I dunno man the Yankees allure is still huge in Japan. There was a time when every single premier player in the NPB wanted to go there. Matsui, Irabu, Tanaka, etc. Oh and the bust of all busts Igawa haha. Nowadays the Dodgers seem to be the sexiest.
Nomo,Ishii went to Dodgers, Hasegawa to Angels, Ichiro to Mariners, Taguchi to Cardinals, Ishii to Mets. I mean most JP players preferred West COast teams back then too.
I am NPB fan in Koreans living in Japan. I say the truth. Sasaki is overestimate. Sasaki has not thrown in NPB for a full season. He has very many injuries. He is not same as Darvish and Yamamoto who won all titles in NPB.
That might be the norm though when he finally comes over in 2 years when he turns 25. If Juan Soto can already command $5~600M, almost on par with Ohtani's...
You talked about how Senga and Yamamoto have reverse splits in the mlb since they are heavily reliant on their fastball/split, but is it not possible that Sasaki might not be the same, his splitter shape is so different that it would probably play different against lefties than Yamamotos splitter since his relies on a lot of horizontal run
Well my theory comes more from a) his splitter would be pretty platoon neutral, so you're right BUT b) he doesn't have a great breaking ball (yet), which is a weapon mostly for righty hitters and c) if they can get some carry to the 4S back, that shape will be better versus lefties than righties. If it stays more 2-plane, then it'd be more of a righty contact-neutralizer weapon. I could be wrong, you just rarely see split-first righties have more issues with lefties.
Considering Yamamoto, Senga and Ohtani were all able to stay healthy while pitching in Japan but have dealt with injuries at the MLB level are we really going to expect that Roki is gonna be able to stay healthy? He still hasn’t had his first healthy season in Japan, how is he going to be healthy at the MLB level? Going to the Dodgers is probably his only chance at staying healthy. Because with Ohtani and Yamamoto he could be part of a 6 man rotation. But if he goes elsewhere and they put him in a five man rotation he will be like Degrom since 2021.
From what I understand, they have all suffered from minor injuries here and there during their NPB years. I think the health concerns over Sasaki are overblown, especially given his young age. Chiba Lotte has been super protective, and he himself seems to hit the pause button rather than pushing too hard and risking surgery or worse. He might be in a better shape than other Japanese players when he finally comes to MLB.
I think he could be decent but I don't know, those shapes don't look that great to me tbh. Fastball is still fine, that'll play in the league, the splitter is interesting but MLB hitters can't eventually figure out that it falls almost exactly like you would expect from a bad slider? The velocity is good but hitters will figure out that splitter, I think. His slider has some cut which is nice but looks kinda average overall too. The low spin rates don't impress me and I think the MLB ball could harm his results. Still valuable, if only for the fastball and how his pitches play off of it but to me he looks more like a reliever than a starter.
Japanese pitcher has been doing great in the MLB. If Shota Imanaga & Yamamato stuff plays in the MLB which we all saw this year. Sasaki going to succeed. His stuff is even better and he's only 22
There are like 0 splitters in MLB that hitters have figured out lol especially above 88 mph with enough drop, let alone distinct shape It's literally the best pitch in baseball at generating swing-miss and limiting barrels. Bunch of 4S-SPL pitchers have succeeded.
@@LanceBroz I guess I'd like to know why his stuff got demonstrably worse in the space of a year. What does that mean? Pitchers in MLB who throw 97 and have a couple decent to good secondary pitches are pretty common these days. The split lost only a bit of velo which is why it's his best pitch. If he can get back up to throwing 100, splitter over 90, then I'd start agreeing that he looks like the next superstar. If he loses even more velo and movement next season he could end up a very average pitcher in the league. So I guess my main concern is why did his fastball lose 3 mph, slider 4 mph, split 1 mph and movement of all of those pitches down across the board? Not to mention all of his results-based stats also going down. That doesn't concern you at all?
日本で佐々木の話題になると必ず2つのポイントが話題になる。1つ目は、佐々木はケガが多く、耐久性に問題があり、これまでシーズン通して活躍したことはなく規定投球回に達したことがないので、MLBの厳しいスケジュールに適用できるか疑問、との声が日本では多いよ。 When people talk about Sasaki in Japan, there are 2 things that always comes up in conversations. First, Sasaki is injury prone, durability is questionable, never pitched a whole season injury free, never pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title, so it seems difficult for him to succeed in MLBs more unforgiving schedule.
The Japanese media seem to have decided to make him a villain, especially this year. Chiba Lotte has been super protective, and he seems smart about when to hit the pause button. Unfortunately, this is seen negatively in Japan where they prefer that players push themselves to the limit for their teams and fans. Never mind, the same loyalty is never given in return when the players get injured or worse. I think he'll do well here where the summer weather is more bearable than Japan (so far) and the media will be much fairer.
@@jykim3604 I never heard people say Sasaki should push himself to the limit for their teams and fans. After all, you cant force anyone to pitch through injury. And it is also not the right thing. Japanese fans are not that dumb. Negativity towards him comes from other things.
@@jykim3604 the posting system is for the team, not the player. all the past players who were given permission by the team to post and went to MLB made significant contributions to the team before they did. Not only that everyone who did go to MLB via posting system except for Ohtani went after 25 so this enabled the team to cash in a lot as compensation for the loss. sasaki has done none of this. this is the root of the criticism towards him by fans, that I understand. this feeling will cause various negative comments about him. this is also the 2nd point I mentioned.
I guarantee he won't succeed in MLB. He could eventually, but he'll surely struggle much more than Yamamoto did. He'll be in IL too. He is too fragile.
I don't think he will be good in the MLB tbh. I think he will be the first bust to come from Japan. Other than the 4 seamer and splitter he is pretty much average. He's going to have a short career if he keeps relying on that high velocity 4 seamer with his build. It's one of the best 4 seamers that I've seen on par with Skene's, but as a starting pitcher, there's no way he is starting 20+ games. He'd be a deadly closer or a reliever like Josh Hader type. If his 4-seamer drops to 97-98, he needs to work on an offspeed pitch, a slider, a changeup, or a curveball. We have already seen that high velocity can be smoked by Major League hitters and an example of that is Bobby Miller with his 8 ERA this recent season, like you said there are injury problems with these starters that throw 99+. River Ryan for the Dodgers similar build as Roki and he suffered from a TJ. Super risky if he does not get posted early and demands big money.
Based on these comments, it seems like everybody is way too confident he's going to break down and never stay healthy. So I'm happy to take the other side of things and just assume that under MLB supervision, as long as it's a sharp team (LAD, NYY, BOS, etc), they'd be able to help him condition and build properly unless there's something medically wrong. The TJ risk now is so low, esp with internal brace. Just build that into your projection. Will likely be able to pitch 4-6 years on new UCL if he pops. Would be well worth it given his potential upside.
@@LanceBroz I agree. I think the health concerns over Sasaki are overblown, especially given his young age. Chiba Lotte has been super protective, and he himself seems to hit the pause button rather than pushing too hard and risking surgery or worse. He might be in a better shape than other Japanese players when he finally comes to MLB.
perfect timing for this vid
Thanks! Didn’t think he’d get posted, but glad he is
Thanks for the amazing stats! Great video🤙🏼
Thanks for watching !
Man this is some serious data driven educational stuff 👏
Thanks!
Correction: It's the Chiba Lotte MARINES, not Marine-r-s. Inserted an extra "R" for no reason. Apologies!
As a mariners fan, this is probably the closest I'll get to hearing a correlation between Roki and the Mariners.🥲
@@djbxyz L O L
Thank you for the rigorous verification. It‘s not easy for an American UA-camr to find these sources.
@@djbxyz hey but you guys did get Ichiro in his prime years
I guess Seattle should get him
Just found your channel, and I love the stat breakdown. Great details and explanation.
Thanks!
Great breakdown, Lance! Hopefully he gets posted and we see him in the bigs in 2025
He’ll look great in Dodger blue!
you spelled Washington Nats Blue wrong. 😏
@@chinitopinoy1726no no. Dodgers Blue. 🙌
日本人だらけでつまらなくなるよ〜😖😖
@@koji.s1256
アホか、日本人スタートリオでドジャース人気爆発だろ
さてはドジャース ファンではないな？
@@koji.s1256さん…確かに有るなあ💦色々なTEAMSで…日本人対決姿勢を見たい〜
I really like the way how the NPB players works in the MLB, they made the baseball great like the old school baseball was, I hope MLB and NPB could review their agreements to sign players and seen those young guys doing his job.
How havent you blown up yet. Was here since you were the only one with good Yamamoto analysis and data. How arent you at least at 100k almost a year later is a mystery. You go deeper than anybody. Please keep at it, the algorithm will pick up on you 💯 youre just too good
By the way. You were spot on regarding Yamamoto werent you mate? After the early scare he became exactly what you said he would. What a monster he is. And with all that big game experience.. the world series didnt faze him one bit; he locked in and was deadly.
The Mets, Padres, and Dodgers have the highest chance of acquiring this guy. Yankees have no chance because Yankee fans have a bad reputation.
That's right. I heard Japanese player won't join Yankees anymore because of that.
The NYY was popular in Japan until Hideo Nomo went to MLB.
The key moment when the Japanese became suspicious of the NYY was when they released Hideki Matsui, the MVP of the World Series, without signing him.
Ohtani deferred his contract cause he knows good players from Japan are on their way to the Dodgers it's their culture to let others have a piece of the pie too
Lmao yeah mets and dodgers fans are high class. Delusional much?
@@faretheewell3711 When was the last Mets or Dodgers fan you saw trying to claw a ball out of a fielders glove in the WS?
He's coming. If he can add a sinker or changeup to his arsenal it would be huge.
If he wants to go to MLB, I think it would be odd if it wasn't to the Dodgers. They just offer so much more than any other team. Perfect weather, local Japanese community, and Japanese players that can help ease the cultural transition. Another team would have to offer him so much more money and even then the Dodgers can just match the offer if they really want him.
They don't match lol they differ the money. Which made them favorites for the WS. Something yankees could have done but MLB said no! Why is that? That question was never answered properly.
@@ivanriverajr5012what are you talking about? Who did they try to defer?
The Padres also have a possibility to acquire him. I am Japanese and I can say more Japanese pitchers (includes Sasaki) admire Darvish than Ohtani and Yamamoto as a pitcher. And Darvish definitely has been or will be recruiting Sasaki to join the Padres.
@@ivanriverajr5012wtf are you talking about 😂 every player in mlb can defer their money but they choose not to. only ohtani have the balls to do it because he doesnt care about the money. the guy also earns 50 mil a yr on endorsements alone
Sasaki is under the age of 25. Therefore if he decides to go to MLB this off season, he can only get a minor league contract. Just like Ohtani in 2018. So the Dodgers or any other team cannot offer him a lot of money.
Eno Saris said something about how pitches that are I believe 12-15 MPH less than your fastball get a ton of takes, so I really agree with the curveball being a good thing to add. Even if in a vacuum the pitch is a bad pitch from stuff+ perspective, it can still be a net positive.
Eno is the man! Yeah, he apparently has a curve in his back pocket, just never throws it (at least that's what I've been made aware of). Even if it's not good in shape, I think it's a pitch to flash 0-0 to steal strikes and keep hitters from seeing more 4S.
@@LanceBroz It is always an interesting question how much value does adding an additional pitch to your arsenal, even if in a vacuum it is a negative pitch. I believe eno talked about Garrett Crochet bringing back his curveball even though it isn't elite, but a way to steal some strikes.
interesting to note that his slider on average was 14 miles per hours slower than his fastball this year and performed great.
Been waiting for this video Lance. Love these. Thanks Lance
He's a Dodgers. Playing with his WBC teammates Ohtani & Yamamato would be stress free. Plus he doesn't have to be the hero. Take a year to learn and get use to MLB like how Yamamato did. Yamamato was in the perfect place to succeed.
not only that, but the dodger organization is known to have great pitching coaches. its where pitchers go to improve their game tremendously.
@@chillDude_chills Mark Prior.
He's going to be the centerpiece of the Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas As
@garishqualm344 yeah he is great at his position. Too bad his career was short lived. He was nasty.
@@chillDude_chills no doubt, but for some reason, their pitchers always get injured
Good vid. Read the article too. Sasaki certainly does seem hogtied, but then again MLB Exec's have a knack for negotiating side agreements that don't show up on the roster salary books, if you know what I mean. For example, if a one time side payment of 30-50m, or an equivalent deal on domestic Japanese TV and team merch deal could be made to dislodged Sasaki, that would allow for an 11m signing bonus on a 3-4 year deal at 5m a year in player salary. That's a fantastic steal of a deal for a pitcher like Sasaki to get him to a team like LAD, NYY, the Mets, Padres, or whoever. I'm betting on the Dodgers to already have such a creative deal on the table since last year. And this year, seeing the Japanese domestic TV deal and merchandising mania that shot through the roof thanks to Ohtani's first World Series, getting a side agreement in place to overcome the controlling teams projected losses, is really easy peasy. Again, doing some kind of side agreement on a cut of Japanese domestic merch and TV rev is dead easy, but only for the Dodgers. See what I mean?
I hope not! The Japanese media really went on a negative campaign against him this year, and one of the made-up rumors was about some side deals between his handlers and the Dodgers. When he was sidelined for about two months, the media really went rampant and accused him of slacking off on the Dodgers's orders.
I know it doesn’t make sense for him to come to my Detroit Tigers but I think he’d fit really well. We also have elite pitching coach and he wouldn’t have to be an elite starter he would be a mid rotation arm for us.
I pray he becomes a padre. This is THE player to go after
Everyone technically has no choice to but offer the same contract, its really up to him where he wants to go, its probably going to be one of the top 5 teams with the highest market so he can make a bunch of money off the field.
😆He’s a Dodger already, It’s just not official yet.
If he does go to the Dodgers when he's posted imagine what Prior can do. He's a big game pitcher for sure though WBC showed it
Nice takes. Personally i feel his home team will be trying to milk any mlb suitors for huge sums of money, mainly because of what yamamoto got. Last offseason afaik that Sasaki asked his team to post him but the team declined.
Not if he leaves this year or next year. He's have to sign a contract like Ohtani did in 2018 when he first came over because he'd still be under 25. If he signs this year or next his NPB team would get almost nothing. If he waits a couple years then he can sign a huge free agent contract.
I dont think his elbow is gonna get injured anytime soon, I think its either shoulder or oblique injury. he has a very snappy quick torso and his arm path is more like a volleyball spike.
Awesome stuff as always. Just wondering here with the potential pitches he might add, do you think he could add some kind of harder maybe higher IVB cutter? Doesn't help with the potential righty problems, but still a way to get hitters off the fastball and it might work better with his unique splitter profile. Just spitballing here, wondering what you think
I feel like it worked really well with senga so theres a chance it could also help with Sasaki as well
Extremely well-explained, man! Loved this.
Btw, did you notice how much rosin came off his hands after every pitch? Ever seen that before?
As a reds fan, imagine a hunter greene fastball with a fernando cruz splitter, both of those pitches are i believe top 15 individual pitches put that into one pitcher and you have ROTY
When Japanese pitchers move to MLB, their ball speed increases.
The reason for this is the height and hardness of the mound.
The reason is that the mound in NPB is low and soft, so it is difficult for the power from the lower body to be transmitted.
This is what Darvish said on UA-cam.
The main reason for Sasaki's decline in speed this season is that he changed his pitching form in order to throw more sliders.
Former MLB player and current Lotte manager Yoshii has commented on the decline in speed.
He has said that it will take time to return to his old pitching form.
Rouki Sasaki 佐々木朗希 is a treasure of Japan. He will be one of the best pitchers in the majors in a few years. Please use him carefully and nurture him.
The Dodgers will take care of him, especially with people like Ohtani and Yamamoto, don't worry
Yankees need this guy
The new meta, create an atmosphere for a core group of NPB elite players. Dodgers did it and got WS 1/1 and play offs wins on its first damn try. San Diego, Mets, Cubs etc might be interested in replicating.
Rokis talent is off the charts
He’s a once in a generation talent 🔥
May I have you make a post seconds Tommy John surgery projection like how Buehler came back and what we think will happen to Ohtani?
How do you get access to these kinds of stats and how can I teach myself to even just scratch the surface of what you know besides just watching yt, I want to be able to apply it in my future so I can build on the base knowledge I already have, these videos are extremely informational and I would love to pick your brain more on other topics not specifically related to specific players.
Everything that I mention in this video is public for MLB -- UA-cam some tutorials on how to use the search function on Baseball Savant -- baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search
Read FanGraphs too, following the links within stories, which often do a great job explaining fundamental concepts which more complex stories are built on.
Similar to what Ohtani did, start his mlb career with the Dodgers’ AAAA team, the Angels
L O L please no 😭
Hot take, but I think he should adapt to a swingman or closer role. Save his arm, keep his stuff nasty etc. He definitely wasn't throwing max effort every pitch in 24' unlike in 23' in order to increase his innings. With less total innings (seasonally) he will probably perform at an elite level in MLB. Excellent video as always!
Definitely a chance of that! But his earnings upside is *substantially* higher if SP. And if he has his pick of teams, why wouldn't he go to the place that would want him to start. Surely an MLB team would take a chance on that and then convert to RP long term or something.
No starter wants to be a bullpen pitcher. That’s a demotion in their eyes and less money.
No ways, and it wouldn't necessarily be saving his arm. He's way more valuable as a starter. With his talent you want him pitching 160+ innings a year rather than 60-70.
he wont be interested in taking that big of a pay cut
he is saving his arm for the posting year, no need to throw so hard and get injured before 2026
That’s what I thought too lol saving the arm
Prob conserving his arm for mlb
I hope he takes care of his arm seriously to avoid any devastating injuries.
He'd be smart to join the Mets and Senga. Very similar style pitchers, hard fastballs, nasty splitters. Would be able to work off each other nicely.
Roki Sasaki you are a Los Angeles Dodger
I am guessing it might because he wanted to be more effortless in throwing fastball and increase his durability, which was his major problem. So he choose to increase extension so he didn’t need to maintain 99mph. 97 with 7ft extension should be far from his 99 with 6.3 extension. Actually in 2024, he did manage to stay deeper in innings, this is something Japanese really care. Like shinnosuke ogasawara lower his fastball fell to stay in game either. Besides I don’t think he can get posted before end of 2025 seasons. Hope MLB and him can make it happend.
Spin losing might because of effortless either
More vertical releases angle and more extension also related to less control, which can also explain his control issue. So that’s fair that he want to enter MLB so hard even consider he had to accept milb deals now as under 25 teens. Because he want to study breaking ball here and adjust his mechanics
In 2024 he pitched an extra 20 innings according to the stats shown. However, he also pitched in three more games. I don't know how that breaks down exactly, maybe he did some relief pitching or something, but assuming he didn't that is only three extra games of 6 2/3 inning ball. Not a HUGE increase tbh. Either way, the change with more extension didn't seem to pay off much. Only positive I can see is if it's putting significantly less strain on his elbow.
I doubt it's intentional. However, this is a question for which there likely is no public answer. My main concern is that he's sending the same energy through his kinetic chain as he did when he was sitting 99, it's just not being lost somewhere in that chain (he's less efficient). You'd probably have to confirm this via kinatrax or a biomech report. But if he's less efficient in his sequencing, or he's compensating somewhere, then there's a chance he's creating the same amount of torque on his arm but the output is slower. Which I don't think would help stamina. He'll just be a worse pitcher.
It sounds like somebody else in the comments is suggesting there's an interview where he says he's intentionally throwing 80%? That would be interesting, but the shape changed too much for me to think everything is totally fine.
@@LanceBroz Masato Yoshii, the current Chiba Lotte manager and Sasaki's former coach, said that his form has changed a bit, which impacted his ability to throw over 160km this year, and he'll be working on correcting that during the offseason.
also sasaki has said he throws 2 split variations, one he cuts and one he doesn't. not uncommon for Japanese pitchers, koji uehara has said on his youtube channels that he threw 4 different splitter variations.
Yeah I have been saying for a couple of years now he cuts and fades his splitter depending on handedness.
Though I think he did it less this season than in the past. I think the shape of the pitch is still gyro though so not sure how he gets it to fade with gyro movement other than finger pressure.
@@brandonttew just watching it feels like there's a big rpm difference between the one he cuts and the one he doesn't. maybe that explains it. the one he doesn't looks like it has almost knucle ball esq spin rates while the other spins more.
It's almost amusing that everyone is talking as though he's definitely playing in the States next year.
The ball is in his team's hands (Lotte Marines) and they're not an MLB farm team.
While Yamamoto's former team was paid 50 million in posting fees, Lotte will only get 1million max if he comes now.
I mean, who would let a young ace of his caliber still under team control leave for just 1 million?
Just got posted
@dshyon I am amazed. Though I'm not a fan of his team and mostly watch MLB, there's no meaning of young players under team control anymore. This will become a bad example and Japanese players will pressure their team to post them whenever they please. NPB has truly become an MLB farm.
@@shin12357 What a garbage take. You think Ohtani will be the player he is today if he stayed in Japan? Roki played well for his team, and his team in turn did him a favour by posting him. Team shouldn't own players, they are not slaves for you amusement.
Greatest athlete seeks the greatest challenge, and for baseball that is MLB. Plenty of Japanese players fail and drop out of MLB, like the Yoshi dude the Rays paid for. Its an extreme risk to go to a new country, play in new environment and learn new language while they could just be sitting in the comfort of their home and cash in on their existing fan base. You should be grateful there are still athlete out there willing to take the challenge.
@@mebite839 Must I remind you the Japanese baseball league Roki belongs to isn't amateur but professional. Players are under team control until free agency just like the MLB. So yes, they are "owned" in both leagues. You call them slaves, I call them players under contract.
Roki wanted to the MLB last year after only 4 years of service. This is his 5th year and he hasn't thrown over 400 innings, 29 wins total and many Japanese fans are pissed since he's leaving without much contribution. Whether or not his team happily posted him is very questionable and they are speculations they just gave in since his motivation for playing in Japan has diminished creating a bad atmosphere within the team.
We should be grateful?! I understand the challenge mentality but you left out the business side of the Japanese league because you just don't care or have any respect for this part.
Yamamoto's former team received 50 million dollars from the posting. Roki's team will receive slightly more than 1 million because he wouldn't wait 2 more years. Initially he's under team control for 9 years(for players who want to play in MLB) but they're letting him go after 5 and getting almost nothing in return.
So you should be grateful his team is sacrificing lots of money so you could enjoy watching him play in the MLB.
@@shin12357 Buddy, Ohtani is the one who laid the foundation to coming to MLB early. Last time I checked Ohtani is a god over there, nobody is complaining he ditched his old team.
So which is it? If you or Japan support Ohtani then you have to extend the same favour to everyone else. Don't even bring this whole "business" garbage. Boo, Billionaire owns are losing money, sale the team then? Roki is not the one who made the posting system, why should he or any player suffer because of it?
Future Dodger! How could he not play with Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto?
I agree. He's going to be a Dodgers. Going to learn from Ohtani & Yamamato.
Every MLB expert had Yamamato going to Mets or Yankees but as it turn out he had his eyes set on the Dodgers from the start
Looks like there is very little chance of him being a dodger now. He has dealt with so many injuries in Japan he has finally realized that he might not last six years in the MLB. It’s too risky for him to pass up on $300-$400 million considering his injury history. Which is why he’s going to stay in Japan for the next two years and then cash in. The truth is it the Dodgers are not going to spend big money on a pitcher that is so unlikely to stay healthy. They have dealt with too many injury plagued pitchers to add another one on a big contract. If he came this year for the league minimum then absolutely. But not if he comes in 2027, and that’s when it looks like he’s coming.
At a certain point a player wants a challenge. Why ride on the coat tails of Ohtani and Yamamoto when you can challenge them by going to a rival?
He should go to the Padres or Rays IMO. The Dodgers just let his goons make their own routines that's why they always get hurt, they don't have a coach that can yell at them to follow their own programs.
Lance please make a post ws video on the recently concluded ws.
MLB ball stitches are thicker than JPB ball leather stitches. Therefore pitchers can put more spin on MLB ball for bigger move. Simple data comparisons on ball movements don’t seem very accountable.
At first, I would think he will go to the Dodgers automatically. But I think about it more , he might go to the Yankees and take the Dodgers down. It’s more fun for him to build his own legacy than being in the shadows of Yamamoto and Ohtani.
Personally I want him to go to the Rays, Royals, Orioles, Pirates or Reds, but probably not.
@@wilburwood8261royals or pirates would be great but we all know the pirates are not spending the money on him
@@wilburwood8261just imagine either ragans lugo wacha sasaki and singer or skenes sasaki Keller Ortiz and jones
@@delvsional Sasaki is only 23 years old so MLB teams can only sign him to a small contract. Money would not be an issue to all 30 teams.
Well, is he durable, with this kind of mechanics?
Many fans (Especially Lotte Marines fans) in Japan are now criticizing Sasaki for not pitching at full strength, trying to protect his arm for when he goes to MLB.
Personally, I believe in this.
Come to Seattle we develop great pitchers
I don't understand how he's allowed to throw a puffball. It's illegal in the MLB as far as I'm aware. Is it a legal pitch in the NPB?
佐々木はAmerican Leagueのteamに入団してほしい。
なぜなら日本人選手が少ないから。
Might just be me but his form reminds me of Dustin May.
With Sasaki’s velocity and pitch movement, are there specific MLB teams or pitching coaches who’d be especially well-suited to help him transition to the majors? For instance, the Cleveland Guardians have a great track record for developing pitchers with strong fastball-slider combinations, like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, and they’re known for building on a player’s strengths while making key adjustments for MLB success. Do you think a team like Cleveland could be a good fit for Sasaki, or might another organization be better equipped to bring out his unique skill set
Well I think the Dodgers are a great fit, particularly because I think his SL needs some rework and LAD crushes that development with most of their pitchers.
I think the Twins do a great job on the biomech side of things, unlikely he goes there, but they’d be a great team to get him back to 2023 movement patterns and shapes.
You’re on the right track though! Guardians would be fun. Just have to wonder what he’s valuing in this process.
the next question is, how much Sasaki MLB contract would be worth?
Roki had an 'off' year in the NPB last year, I would bet he will be better next season. He will play in Japan next season and I think he wants the Sawumura award before he leaves.
He’s probably a dodger, but the Mets will probably be pretty aggressive
Insane talent. No doubt. But, his body is still that of a boy, not a grown man. He won't be able to pitch every 4th day in the States, given his fragile body. A team that signs him must be patient with him. Rushing him before he is fully developed will break him.
only a team with 6 man rotation will sign him, someone like the dodgers
As a Dodgers fan, I'd love to sign him but we desperately need a lefty starter
get Fried
Hiroya Miyagi, left-handed pitcher, same age as Sasaki, former teammate of Yamamoto, same type as Cubs' Imanaga, one of the best left-handed pitchers in the NPB
I had no idea they used noticeably different balls in the NPB.
Yeah! It's a pretty big deal. Usually a small adaptation period for pitchers when they come over. Shota talked about this a bit with the Cubs, and I imagine other pitchers have as well.
ボールの違いの影響は大変大きいです。
MLBのボールはすべりやすく肩やひじを痛めやすい。
MLBのボールの方がスライダーなど横系の変化球は曲がりやすい。
MLBの日本人投手はよくそうしたコメントをしています。
Yankees need him to beat the Dodgers
welcome to LA DODGERS
Is he not throwing the curve ball?
He has it in his back pocket but has not yet thrown it much. He's perfected the slider this year, so maybe next year?
Please come to Detroit🙏🙏!! I’ll keep dreaming😂
Kenta Maeda is recruiting him now
Come to my team, the White Sox
😐
😢
Is it possible that his step back in stuff this year had to do with him trying to pace himself so he doesn’t burn his arm out in the Japanese league? He is clearly not interested in pitching there anymore
How is sasaki compared to Yamamoto??
IMO better velo, slightly worse command. Nastier stuff but availability is not his forte. To put it in simple, he's raw Jacob deGrom with more pitching arsenal. If your team's pretty rich, have a great pitching lab, physio & medical team you want to go hard to sign him.
Yamamoto was a workhorse in NPB. Different ball & different pitch rule, he missed a lot of games. If that can happened to Yamamoto, then you have to be more patient with Sasaki because of his injuries history in NPB
Higher ceiling than Yamamoto stuff wise but he will have trouble staying healthy and is nowhere near Yamamoto calibre yet
Roki sasaki have to learn slider from Yu darvish
from
@garishqualm344 ☺️
we need sasak in dodgers uniform. it's almost a given he will sign with dodgers
I think the probability he ends up a Dodger is being way overrated by the public
I think he’ll go to the Dodgers, he can make money off the field the most there.
*now analyze the veteran Sugano Tomoyuki, who's a veteran looking to play in the MLB next year, filthy season with Yomiuri Giants 15-3 and sub 2 ERA*
*only drawback, 35*
I'll check him out! 35, wow haha would be very interesting to see that contract
@ maybe 3-5 years 6-15mil max per year. Since he makes about 5m right now. He will be affordable for most, maybe 75-100m max due to age. The control is off the charts with about 5 pitches, 2 junk split / curve finishers if he's ahead.
@@LanceBroz佐々木より菅野の結果が気になる人も多いですよ。WBCでアメリカ代表を自責点0で抑えてますし
MLB and Japan Baseball will need to stop age restriction, then Sasaki has a chance to come earlier. Sasaki worlds best pitcher is NOT coming to a foreign land to make minimum. He will enjoy Japan comfort zone and follow Yamamoto path. Sasaki will eventually make 40M+ per year, ten year contract = 500M+ for pitching GOAT. So it's a unrealistic dream for a MLB team to pay him only 2M per year minimum.
there is no age restirction rule in Japan.
what you are saying is about MLB rule that says MLB teams can sign international players under 25 to only a minor league contract
COme on man
You bit your tongue there bro. No restrictions from Japan that mlb. You have no clue bye dude 😂
He is undoubtedly the best pitcher in the history of Japanese baseball.
His pitching ability is higher than Darvish, Otani, and Yamamoto.
His average pitch speed is 158 km/h, his control is not bad, and he has pitched 17 perfect innings.
However, he still has the body of a child, and does not have the stamina to maintain the four-day rotation that is required in the major leagues.
Then how come can you conclude that he is the best pitcher when he hasn't shown his capability to finish even a single season?
@@Cliffem82 I don't think we can judge his durability just based on his record in Japan as there are so many variables. This year, the Japanese media really went after him, releasing (made up) negative stories on a daily basis. Plus, Japan and Korea suffered from record heat and those countries were hotter than Thailand or The Philippines. He is from a cooler climate.
I think he means most talented and potentially being the best pitcher.
Come on, it is an english issue, cant you see?
He also means fastball speed, not pitch speed.
佐々木も行くならドジャースだろうね Sasaki will choose Dodgers because Dodgers have Ohtani and Yamamoto.
An MLB team told him to not throw hard maybe.
Why does this guy’s pitches look like a white dust or puff of air comes up when he throws? Is that something to do with the tacky ball in Japan? Looks wild
he said in an interview he would be going at 80% to try and stay healthy and go deeper into games
Link? I didn't see this. His fastball shape changed enough, along with the shutdown for "poor condition of his right arm," that makes me think there's not 100% truth in that statement. But that's just my gut reaction, I could be wrong.
@@LanceBroz ua-cam.com/video/3IZ7gzv6DWA/v-deo.html this is a yakyu cosmopolitan video where he refers to there comments. around the 20:30 mark is where yakyu cosmo mentions it. I initially heard the manager make this claim early in the npb season, specifically saying roki was trying to slow his body down. Later in the year there was a stretch of 6 starts where he averaged 98 on the fastball, he is questioned about wether there has been a change in approach, and he answers that he has just figured the sequencing out.
@@LanceBroz his fastball velo was down again to finish the year but by my recollection that has been the case every year of his career. considering that he has been going deeper into games, 120 pitches pretty regularly fatigue makes sense.
@@LanceBroz I think I watched the interviews in a post game nhk broadcast in japan. If u dig around nhk archives u might be able to find it.
Are there any other pitchers coming to MLB from NPB/ KBO this year that can be impactful?
Ogasawara
Sugano
That's a knuckle disguised as a split
Right?! It has some knuckle traits, so filthy
I mean with a 30M/year contract you're supposed to perform right away but at 0.7M? Even a year or two in the minors won't be a burden to the team. I think that's why he wants to come not as a free agent. About the consensus he's already a Dodger I dunno man the Yankees allure is still huge in Japan. There was a time when every single premier player in the NPB wanted to go there. Matsui, Irabu, Tanaka, etc. Oh and the bust of all busts Igawa haha. Nowadays the Dodgers seem to be the sexiest.
Nomo,Ishii went to Dodgers, Hasegawa to Angels, Ichiro to Mariners, Taguchi to Cardinals, Ishii to Mets.
I mean most JP players preferred West COast teams back then too.
日本でのヤンキースは以前は大谷がドジャースに行くまでは1番か2番目に人気の球団でしたが、この前のワールドシリーズでの大谷の怪我に対するFサインをするファンやベッツの捕球時のファンの危険行動で凄く人気を落としました。紳士のチームと言われてる球団なのに、ファンのモラルが低すぎてファンが球団の人気を低下させてしまっている。
@@mgwpjgwpdpwpmgm確かにイメージは落ちましたなｗ 特に現代はカメラだらけなので何でも映っちゃいますからね。でもロスもラテン系が多いからま～酷いやりとりですよ。ＷＢＣ見てましたがま～中指どころか股間つかんだりしてスペイン語で信じられないヤジ合戦。ただ日本でも昔は阪神ファンが試合後に乱入してあの王貞治までボコボコにされたこともあるわけでｗ しかも一切やり返さなかったというさすが世界の王。
He is Japanese “tyler Glasnow”. Very fragile athlete. Can’t imagine he would play throughout the season.
Dodgers next season deadly COMBO : SASAKI ,OHTANI , YAMAGOATO , GLASNOW
Scary!
These guys only can pitch around 100innings each.
@@tarasitismindaugas4561 i think you'll see a 6 man rotation even 7
ケガ人だらけで草
メジャーリーグには25齢ルールがある、25齢未満の海外移籍選手はマイナー契約しか結べない。佐々木は現在23齢(今年の11月で24齢)であるため少なくとも１年間はマイナーで投げることになる
エンゼルスに行くのもいいと思う笑
He def gonna be a dodger
I am NPB fan in Koreans living in Japan. I say the truth. Sasaki is overestimate. Sasaki has not thrown in NPB for a full season. He has very many injuries.
He is not same as Darvish and Yamamoto who won all titles in NPB.
I loved Roki in WBC, but this dude will be an overpriced 4 or 5 SP in MLB.
That might be the norm though when he finally comes over in 2 years when he turns 25. If Juan Soto can already command $5~600M, almost on par with Ohtani's...
Dodger
His health concerns me still. Just hasnt held up a whole season in his career
You talked about how Senga and Yamamoto have reverse splits in the mlb since they are heavily reliant on their fastball/split, but is it not possible that Sasaki might not be the same, his splitter shape is so different that it would probably play different against lefties than Yamamotos splitter since his relies on a lot of horizontal run
Well my theory comes more from a) his splitter would be pretty platoon neutral, so you're right BUT b) he doesn't have a great breaking ball (yet), which is a weapon mostly for righty hitters and c) if they can get some carry to the 4S back, that shape will be better versus lefties than righties. If it stays more 2-plane, then it'd be more of a righty contact-neutralizer weapon.
I could be wrong, you just rarely see split-first righties have more issues with lefties.
He is amazing pitcher in Japan. But the only problem he has is that he doesn't have physical strength😇
He can't pitch on 5 days rest...
痩せ過ぎている。体重を5キロ以上は増やした方がいい。
英語で書け
Considering Yamamoto, Senga and Ohtani were all able to stay healthy while pitching in Japan but have dealt with injuries at the MLB level are we really going to expect that Roki is gonna be able to stay healthy? He still hasn’t had his first healthy season in Japan, how is he going to be healthy at the MLB level? Going to the Dodgers is probably his only chance at staying healthy. Because with Ohtani and Yamamoto he could be part of a 6 man rotation. But if he goes elsewhere and they put him in a five man rotation he will be like Degrom since 2021.
From what I understand, they have all suffered from minor injuries here and there during their NPB years. I think the health concerns over Sasaki are overblown, especially given his young age. Chiba Lotte has been super protective, and he himself seems to hit the pause button rather than pushing too hard and risking surgery or worse. He might be in a better shape than other Japanese players when he finally comes to MLB.
I think he could be decent but I don't know, those shapes don't look that great to me tbh. Fastball is still fine, that'll play in the league, the splitter is interesting but MLB hitters can't eventually figure out that it falls almost exactly like you would expect from a bad slider? The velocity is good but hitters will figure out that splitter, I think. His slider has some cut which is nice but looks kinda average overall too. The low spin rates don't impress me and I think the MLB ball could harm his results. Still valuable, if only for the fastball and how his pitches play off of it but to me he looks more like a reliever than a starter.
Japanese pitcher has been doing great in the MLB. If Shota Imanaga & Yamamato stuff plays in the MLB which we all saw this year. Sasaki going to succeed. His stuff is even better and he's only 22
I personally think he's intentionally throwing less as hard to preserve that arm for a MLB career.
That's just my guess as an avid NPB viewer.
There are like 0 splitters in MLB that hitters have figured out lol especially above 88 mph with enough drop, let alone distinct shape
It's literally the best pitch in baseball at generating swing-miss and limiting barrels. Bunch of 4S-SPL pitchers have succeeded.
@@LanceBroz I guess I'd like to know why his stuff got demonstrably worse in the space of a year. What does that mean? Pitchers in MLB who throw 97 and have a couple decent to good secondary pitches are pretty common these days. The split lost only a bit of velo which is why it's his best pitch. If he can get back up to throwing 100, splitter over 90, then I'd start agreeing that he looks like the next superstar. If he loses even more velo and movement next season he could end up a very average pitcher in the league.
So I guess my main concern is why did his fastball lose 3 mph, slider 4 mph, split 1 mph and movement of all of those pitches down across the board? Not to mention all of his results-based stats also going down. That doesn't concern you at all?
日本で佐々木の話題になると必ず2つのポイントが話題になる。1つ目は、佐々木はケガが多く、耐久性に問題があり、これまでシーズン通して活躍したことはなく規定投球回に達したことがないので、MLBの厳しいスケジュールに適用できるか疑問、との声が日本では多いよ。
When people talk about Sasaki in Japan, there are 2 things that always comes up in conversations. First, Sasaki is injury prone, durability is questionable, never pitched a whole season injury free, never pitched enough to qualify for the ERA title, so it seems difficult for him to succeed in MLBs more unforgiving schedule.
There is also a 2nd one not tied to his ability that always comes up, but I guess that is not interesting to American people.
The Japanese media seem to have decided to make him a villain, especially this year. Chiba Lotte has been super protective, and he seems smart about when to hit the pause button. Unfortunately, this is seen negatively in Japan where they prefer that players push themselves to the limit for their teams and fans. Never mind, the same loyalty is never given in return when the players get injured or worse. I think he'll do well here where the summer weather is more bearable than Japan (so far) and the media will be much fairer.
@@jykim3604 I never heard people say Sasaki should push himself to the limit for their teams and fans. After all, you cant force anyone to pitch through injury. And it is also not the right thing. Japanese fans are not that dumb. Negativity towards him comes from other things.
@@wilburwood8261 Good to know. Maybe they are anti-fans, but there have been a lot of commenters who have accused him of slacking off.
@@jykim3604 the posting system is for the team, not the player. all the past players who were given permission by the team to post and went to MLB made significant contributions to the team before they did. Not only that everyone who did go to MLB via posting system except for Ohtani went after 25 so this enabled the team to cash in a lot as compensation for the loss. sasaki has done none of this. this is the root of the criticism towards him by fans, that I understand. this feeling will cause various negative comments about him. this is also the 2nd point I mentioned.
多くの日本のファンは佐々木がMLBで活躍できるか疑問に思っています。
体力とメンタルに不安があります。
あとはMLBのボールに対応できるかが問題です。
ボールに対応できるかは全てのNPBの選手に言えることです。
今年の今永は上手く対応できて予想以上の結果を残して、山本は少し苦戦している様に見えます。
Fragile
Future yankee we're getting him
higher probability to be a dodger
I guarantee he won't succeed in MLB.
He could eventually, but he'll surely struggle much more than Yamamoto did. He'll be in IL too. He is too fragile.
体が貧弱で100イニングしか投げれないぞ
井川の再来
佐々木は投手としての振る舞いがあまり良くなくて味方のエラーや審判のコースに対する誤審があると表情に凄く出すので山本由伸クラスになるにはまだまだ程遠いかと…もしよければ佐々木より山下舜平大や宮城大弥の方が山本や今永を越えるような投手になりそうだよ。チェックしてみて。
山下や宮城はまず佐々木のwar超えろ
奴は体力無いからね😆
I don't think he will be good in the MLB tbh. I think he will be the first bust to come from Japan. Other than the 4 seamer and splitter he is pretty much average. He's going to have a short career if he keeps relying on that high velocity 4 seamer with his build. It's one of the best 4 seamers that I've seen on par with Skene's, but as a starting pitcher, there's no way he is starting 20+ games. He'd be a deadly closer or a reliever like Josh Hader type. If his 4-seamer drops to 97-98, he needs to work on an offspeed pitch, a slider, a changeup, or a curveball. We have already seen that high velocity can be smoked by Major League hitters and an example of that is Bobby Miller with his 8 ERA this recent season, like you said there are injury problems with these starters that throw 99+.
River Ryan for the Dodgers similar build as Roki and he suffered from a TJ. Super risky if he does not get posted early and demands big money.
Based on these comments, it seems like everybody is way too confident he's going to break down and never stay healthy. So I'm happy to take the other side of things and just assume that under MLB supervision, as long as it's a sharp team (LAD, NYY, BOS, etc), they'd be able to help him condition and build properly unless there's something medically wrong.
The TJ risk now is so low, esp with internal brace. Just build that into your projection. Will likely be able to pitch 4-6 years on new UCL if he pops. Would be well worth it given his potential upside.
@@LanceBroz its just that people want him to fail. look at how many people hate on skenes
@@LanceBroz I agree. I think the health concerns over Sasaki are overblown, especially given his young age. Chiba Lotte has been super protective, and he himself seems to hit the pause button rather than pushing too hard and risking surgery or worse. He might be in a better shape than other Japanese players when he finally comes to MLB.