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People aren’t buying as much as before. Prices are still too high j guess.

Well, this past Monday I placed a 452k bid on a 465k home. They came down 2k, I then raised my bid 5k, and seller said 463k was their best... mind you its been on the market for 9 months now 😅, needless to say, I walked away. 2k reduction for sitting on the market 9 months doesnt seem quite right.

historically speaking, right now a disproportionately higher percentage of houses in higher price brackets are being sold as compared to the lower brackets, dragging up the norm. This is not normal, where usually the lower priced to medium priced homes (think 300-500k) are more abundant in sales. These still are at large, but their slice of the total pie is not close to what it historically has been. This is shown in low sales volume, inventory spiking and median price increasing. the market is mostly frozen as compared to historic norms while inventory is ramping into spring. The few houses that are selling are to owners of other homes (probably different states) who just sold with a lot of equity and are moving to nashville. This is not a market reflecting lots of local average earning Nashvillians, because these people cannot afford a house. All i really look at is davidson though, i wouldn't be surprised if areas like brentwood/ coolspring/ franklin do well

Home builder shares down because of tariffs on lumber and other building supplies

Builder’s stock probably down due to the fear of labor shortage and tariffs.

🌴🌴🌴 You’re awesome Ethan. Eventually those areas surrounding Nashville dropping prices will Definitely affect the prices in Nashville. Thank you for putting up with my sometimes crazy opinions. Tons of love and respect from Paso Robles California, Carlos

You can have prices coming down but "median sales price" going up. Median sales price is just the middle number in a given data set, right? So if the upper end of the market is selling at a disproportionately higher rate that would move "median" sales price up. This makes sense because cash buyers are willing to buy in this market and they aren't typically buying starter homes. As an extreme example home prices could fall by 50% but if only the most expensive 100 homes in a county sold in a given month the "median sales price" would still go up because your entire data set is expensive homes.

3/4 of the new builds are not attractive. Builder decided to squeeze more homes in the space they should have built just 3 homes with actual yards. And they are asking way too much money for them. Nobody wants that when you’re dropping that kind of money.

Stock market prices are forward looking. They’re reflecting what happens next. (Or trying to … the best anyone can 🤷‍♂️)

So can i buy a house in Murfreesboro for around 250k or are the sellers and the fomo buyers still insane? Franklin market belongs in the mental asylum. Any good school areas that you might know of? Clarksville is a backup plan

Not crazy Ethan! It’s a reality here in Nashville… Homes that are selling are actually homes that dropped significantly (adjusted) or they are just sitting. 90/120 days is what I’m seeing unless they drop

Feels like the Williamson Co data is pretty representative - price/interest not much of a deterrent for buyers looking to spend >$1M. Also, would love to see some E Nash detail if you get the chance! Thx man!

I think some people on the sidelines are getting anxious living in a rental house and may be throwing in the towel to buy. I feel that way sometimes but I keep reminding myself HOLD. I benefited from 2008 housing crash and it paid off tenfold. Many may not be as patient as others thus why people are buying. DOM (increasing), inventory increasing, loans apps (at all time lows), and an unstable stock market (decreasing buyer sentiment) are tremendous signs of cracks in the housing market. Not to mention a wave of foreclosures may be on the horizon. Loss mitigation, bankruptcy or loan forbearance are still awaiting how the Trump administration will handle this.

Any idea where these builders are in terms of margins? Are they still close to record highs with room to drop?

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If nothing else, those affected by the 2025 LA fires or those who lived near them may now have the impendence to move. It might be the kick in the pants to get them moving.

Do you think that weather in January played any part of the slowness we saw? Recall it was super cold with snow. Love the channel. Thanks for doing this.

Mortgage applications were down nationally last week. So if Trump is responsible for Nashville’s recent jump, that is indistinguishable from your grey line (2023?), does that mean he’s responsible for suppressing purchases nationally?

🌴🌴🌴 Hi Mr. Ethan You always bring us the most current data in Nashville and the surrounding areas. I thought for sure that prices would have been dropping drastically by now. So strange how it seems like every neighborhood has its own market value. I’m still hoping on getting back into the Mount Juliet area when TSHF. The double digits are coming so don’t be surprised when it does. I LOVE Middle Tennessee and would love to retire there. I lived there part time for twenty years and always loved it except for the Hurricane that got my home in 2020. Keep on keeping on and I’ll keep on watching. Tons of love and respect from Paso Robles California, Carlos

Just remember when selling with your real estate agent to negotiate your commissions down. No agent was ever worth 5-6% of your homes equity to sell...

One note about the contract volume heat map - the color seems to be based on the specific number of houses under contract vs prior year. This skews the data because some areas are HUGE like west haven so 13 more houses is great but not red hot. that other area of franklin that went from 2 under K to 10 is a 500% increase. that's RED hot.

Sorry but home sales are down and we have more inventory since 2020.

Smoking hot.. soft… very very hot. Are we talking about homes??

I'm from LA originally and would be shocked if this is wealthy LA buyers already coming to Nashville. Those people will take a second to pull the trigger on a cross country move. Most of those people stil have a ton of insurance settlements to figure out. Likely this is just a small sample size in a small window of buyers pulling the trigger, and not going to reflect the rest of 2025... but who knows, we can only see what's happening RIGHT NOW. Corrections can only be called in hindsight.

Nothing has fundamentally changed. The only people who can afford to buy a house are those who already own a house. Everyone else who isn’t making 100k a household can’t afford to live within 10 miles of downtown at 7%. Either prices must fall 20% or mortgage rates by 3% or a combination of both. OR incomes go up 20% we’ll see about that. This is my observation for Davidson, the only market I’m watching

It turned once and could turn again. We will see. I'm pretty good friends with a restaurant owner. He has about 8 places in around town and had told me the Trump Effect is real. His places did distinctly better than expected over the holidays. Maybe it's happening in RE. Rates, incomes and home prices have remained constant. The only variable I can think of is pent up demand. People just have to move.

I know it's a big deal when an Ethan Flynn video drops on a random Thursday morning.

looks like Californian (esp, LA area) moving in big time

I have never seen this in my life given the data. I wonder if some of it might be an anticipatory purchase now hoping for lower rates to refi into soon? I just have to admit that this is stumping me. Do you have any data on raw single family land?

It would seem natural for people to delay contracting for a house prior to any Inauguration, and for there to be a bubble immediately after said Inauguration. Perhaps contrasting this market with other metro areas and with 2020 and 2016 would be instructive.

Love your neighborhood tracker! Even though it’s making it clear that 2025 won’t be the year I buy in Westhaven 😢

Those contracts going up are from people who were in the La fires and palisades lol . Cmon brother you’re smarter than this

Amazing data! Imagine if interest rates come down a bit

But for how long?

I look at houses every day, and my point of view no house is worth the price. it's just a question of those who come from California who buy more land than before, but this will collapse one day. In Franklin 1.1M house it's actually worth 700k

The Trump effect could be in play. Could also be increased net inbound migration from the fires. The timing works for either. Probably some of both. Either way.......here we go :D

37206?

I guess what I don't 100% understand is if many of these areas are now bullish because of previous price drops, is that really the market flipping or is that just price correction? Aside from the palisades buyers in very wealthy areas, it seems like Nashville overall especially Davidson is losing value and the only areas which are having more sales are the areas which have price corrected. Please help me understand if I'm missing something

It's simple: build more houses, and prices go down.

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Nashville housing market needs to drop 50%

I moved down to TN from Long Island NY, right now we are in an AirBNB til March 9th in Pittman Center, my girlfriend is considering Tuscaloosa as a spot since her sister lives there, and she can bartend/do sound design for the school (I am 100% remote as an accountant), curious how much better Nashville would be pricing/$ wise for her income compared to Tuscaloos

ALMOST bought in Franklin in 2014. Unaffordable now. OTH, the apartment buildings and traffic is eyesores. Narrow escape. Not charming anymore. Try-hards, generic, high rises on cornfields, new highways wrecking the countryside. Not having it.

Real estate isn’t that great of an investment when you do a proper ROI analysis. You have to factor in the total cost and risk associated with home ownership. You’d be better off just investing in the SP500 index depending on your time horizon.

Nope - no way. Not with climate impacts accelerating. And those increased risks will be reflected in your mortgage interest rate and your insurance costs, if they don't drop you after a year or two.

I am betting on a mortgage rate increase per the bond market. The bond market players are EXTREMELY sophisticated in their analysis and outlook, which is why they play 10 yrs out. Another great video. And how refreshing that you seem to be the ONLY real estate person in this area who actually takes a stock market/bond/business analysis view of the market. The best advice I ever received from my business attorney many yrs ago was "Know your numbers".

Nashville housing market is overvalued by 40%. A serious wake up call is coming.

The commenter is right, Nashville is absolutely cooked. Has been for a while

Infrastructure in Nashville is cooked.

Appreciate your video every weekend!!