Відео

Are you one of the people pricing the locals out of homes?

Good. Get the heck out of my State.

What’s the best way to find these assumable loans that are at great prices.

I'm neither republican nor democrat but even I can tell you from experience living in multiple counties in tn, the worst so far have all been the blue counties.

Correlation doesn't equal causation. Democrats always brood in urban areas. Some of them may be moving back to California and New York because the remote jobs aren't working out but it's also likely that native tennesseans are leaving the metropolitan to get away from the invasion.

I love your deep data-driven dives and learn so much, but I think it's somewhat misleading when frequently conflating Nashville Davidson County data with that of the MSA. Migration data for Davidson County is very different than the MSA. To wit: 2020 DavCo population was 715,894 in 2023, it was 712,354 (www.census.gov/quickfacts/davidsoncountytennessee ). Most inbound migration is to other counties in the MSA, but not Davidson County, according to the Census; which has relatively flat net migration. I wish people were more clear about this distinction, esp when talking about data that's often used in policymaking. Also, and I found this surprising - Davidson County has HUGE internal turnover. Per the ACS, Only 80% of DavCo reports being in the same house as last year, and around 10% of the population moves WITHIN the county every year - that's around 71k people who move WITHIN Davidson County EVERY YEAR! Almost twice as many people as move from out of state! This is among the highest churn in the nation - more than SF, LA, NYC, New Orleans, STL, Charlotte and Atlanta. data.census.gov/table/ACSSE2022.K200701?q=geographic%20mobility%20davidson%20county,%20tn Would love to connect and geek out on Davidson County data! Thanks for grounding the conversation in data, and here's to sharpening the blade!

Yes. Please keep renting, keep renting, u dont need home ownership. The crash is around the corner, don't ever buy 😅, u are doing the right by sitting it out. 😅

Leave TN. Go bsck to wherever.

Plenty of affordable housing in and around Johnson City. Things have gone up in the last two years, but not disastrously so.

300-400k for a 750 sq ft CONDO.. No wonder so many are leaving TN or staying but moving back in with family.

I will let people know now. The car makers will be laying people off by the end of the year.

The State announced a shortfall in the revenue. We only have a sales tax. Pretty good indicator the whole economy in Tennessee is going down.

First impression on why prices aren’t moving is the election year, the uncertainty of interest rates, and investors propping up the market. Very interesting housing market, good value will be the winner at the end of the day

That not enough. When accounting for the money printing at the fed and the debasement of the dollar, home prices need to come down by 50% or more as just a baseline.

Wouldn't it be more intuitive that red people are leaving Davidson for a red county? Davidson has gotten "messy" and people want basic stuff. Cost of living is so high. Red peeps tend to settle down and start traditional families more, and they are probably going to surrounding to do that.

Born and raised in CA, lived in DC, Oakland, and currently Nashville. Why the hell would I pay California housing prices in Davidson when living here offers a) less fresh food with fewer options; b) worse urban amenities overall (I love country music, but I want to do other things too), c) worse public transit (I can't afford a car), d) less natural amenities (TN national and state parks are gorgeous, but a lot less diverse than CA), and e) worse summers? CA's state taxes are extremely progressive. I never had high enough income to care about CA's state taxes. That transit thing is a really big deal for me. I feel a lot more safe in some of the rougher neighborhoods of NW DC than I do trying to get from Berry Hill to Midtown w/o a car. Since you're way more likely to get into a traffic accident than be a victim of property or violent crime, that's the risk I'm more attuned to.

"It's so bad, it's good." - Ethan Flynn, CPA

Great take on what is happening . Love your channel

I live in Shelby country which is the same county Memphis is in. My family, specifically parents, have been wanting to leave not just Tennessee but literally the whole united states because of politics. I would say migration based on politics is a very real thing.

On household consolidation- me and my husband moved to middle TN in 2022. He is from here, we moved in with his parents until we could buy. Fast forward to now, we have a baby and no one in the house wants to move and the prices are still insane. Now we are all waiting for prices to cone down and trying to buy something together.

What is absorption? What is household consolidation?

If owning it costs double what you could rent it for, the property is extremely overvalued. Don't just make a nasty offer. Make an insulting offer 🤣

So helpful, Ethan! I appreciate your dedication to getting these out each weekend.

household formation & net migration slow in rate hiking cycles, which is why (among other things) inventory is moving higher across Nashville msa and even in williamson county.

awesome data

Not so sure Uhaul price being higher in LA vs Nashville means that there are more people moving (at least via uhaul) from LA to Nash than vise versa. EVERYTHING is more expensive in LA, so don't think this reflects the amount of migration one way or the other. That being said, you might be right that migration form LA to Nash continues to be high.

Prices coming down due to increase in inventory, this will create a dominoe effect

Former potential buyer here. I was looking for 2 years, but sellers weren't budging even slightly. I recently saw a house drop to a price for the exact offer I made 3 months prior. However, now I rent a room with no desire to buy an overpriced liability since I'm stacking my paper

Excellent point on household consolidation. It makes sense as housing becomes more unaffordable. I have no idea how to measure that other than if there’s data on number of people pre household. I don’t think that’s updated often though. It’s weird how 1212 has so much more inventory than Icon and Terrazzo. I’d love to see data on how The Pullman is pre-selling. The lists prices are so high it makes the other 3 buildings look like a bargain. Maybe they are throwing in a lot of free upgrades? Another interesting economic data point is Nashville restaurants are 20-40% less busy than last year. That’s a HUGE drop. Open table has it as a 30% drop which is largest in the nation. That’s crazy with the population growth and tourism that restaurants have that big of drop. I think consumers are at their limit as CC debt keeps hitting new records. Something has to give.

Buying and Selling Property? Cover yo ass! and get a survey done! with Miller Construction Layout we do land surveying all over the middle TN area

Thanks for sharing. Were you referring to 1212 Demonbreun or 1212 Laurel? If Demonbreun are those from the developer? Laurel St will see a rush to sell once there are plans to develop that parking lot. The price per square foot premium for condos in Nashville never made sense to me, assumed it has to come down as more nice buildings get built.

How about some info on the other counties surrounding Nashville and middle Tennessee?

🎉🎉🎉 Oh how I miss the Nashville real estate market from 20 years ago when I first started investing there. I was fortunate to get into the first high rise Condo in downtown Nashville on the 25th floor (the VIRIDIAN) for only $205,K. My first home I bought in middle Tennessee was only $105,K. My last home in Mount Juliet I bought about 6-7 years ago for $435,K and sold it almost 2 years ago for around $778,K. Now looking at prices just blows my mind. Thank you Ethan for all the hard work you put into making these videos for us, Please don’t ever stop. I am still planning on getting back in but only after TSHF. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸 I’m also happy to see your subscribers growing 😊.

www.ethanflynn.com Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/

I just moved to Madison TN from Dallas tx a year ago and currently rent a duplex. It sucks that the cheapest home in my area is $300k. I’d love to get a house however prices are just way too high for me to comfortably live in. Plus it’s hard to come up with $60k for just the down payment and that’s not including closing costs and realtor fees. Now is not the time to buy.

Bye Felicia

Been a lefty here since 1986. It builds character. The people here are the best in the country.

I'm confused at how this is even a question. Anytime you have a large black population, you have high crime, high taxes, poor public schools, poor government leadership, and generally an unsafe area to live. This isn't rocket science. If you have children, you will not move to an inner city unless you are so wealthy that private schools are in your budget. If you were to ask most citizens in those cities, they would tell you that they would like to move if they could afford it. Most people want to live in a safe place, and as such, those areas are more expensive. And when you live in an inner city, you wonder why your taxes are so high for the lack of return on that investment. When in a whiter area, you know the taxes are going to the schools, the police, and the upkeep of the roads(street sweepers, tree trimming, ect,) as opposed to the inner-city decay.

strange how you dont consider all of the extra rural land in Williamson. Almost all major cities are 'blue' because there are more people, which results in more diversity. It represents more accurately what the rest of america looks like, more 'blue'. Why would you think Murfreesboro would be weak. .. I was going to start listing all of the reasons why Murfreesboro will grow into Beachgrove, and south towards Tullahoma. Anyways, I suggest you go outside of your apartment and actually look around with your eyes.

Are you on vacation this week? Was going to see if we could hop on a call with you tomorrow.

some new construction communities off the 109 have started cutting home prices 25K. It wild. Its also happening in new construction communities in Cookeville.

What about non-cash heavy buyers? I was born and raised in tennesse, i just graduated and im working overtime just to pay bills. How am i supposed to save for a house when everything is so expensive.

Ethan, great content. I would love to see a similar analysis for Mt. Juliet/Lebanon and maybe Henderson/ Gallatin.

The information density on your videos is so high, I need to listen about 3 times to catch everything! I think sellers have been pricing houses today based on linear projections of growth from the past few years, and therefore have overshot the market a bit. Hence the price concessions. Agreed it's a good time to buy if you're armed with data!

O89

What if all the people that took their houses off to wait for the fed to start cutting only to find out that was the same plan everyone else had and inventory goes parabolic? (What I’m rooting for)

The house in Westhaven has a horrible exterior paint Brown Betty, I can’t even look at it. Yes I could repaint it but what a headache

Ethan I love your content. Very interested in your data tool - Does it include east Nashville?

🎉🎉🎉 i Love learning from you. I highly respect what you do and what you recommend. The data doesn’t lie. Thank you so much for everything you share. Would love to meet you someday. Hope that business is treating you well my friend. Can’t wait to see you next Saturday. Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸

www.ethanflynn.com Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min Newsletter: ethanflynn.substack.com/