Something Just Happened to Prices | Nashville Housing Update
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- Опубліковано 9 лют 2025
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
www.ethanflynn.com
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TN CPA License: 24309
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Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
www.ethanflynn.com
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Nashville is my hometown. I’m an appraiser, realtor, and general contractor now for over 20 years, in Davidson County. Ran across the channel, and enjoy watching.
I love stats, but I’d be careful about getting so micro. TN continues to be a desired state with no income tax. We have always had a relatively stable economy in Nashville with tourism and health care. Now we have this new tech sector. Those are all stable industries.
What you are seeing in the MSA is a multiple of pricing correction from Covid, compared with a change in desired high wealth areas, mixed with the high cost of money. It’s still a class issue. Higher value homes continue to be fine. The stress is in the home values most of us need.
These debates have gone on constantly in my 20+ years of real estate. I can assure you that I’m not buying anymore homes in the nations for $50k or Cleveland Park for $25k. Or Sylvan Park for $175k. Yes, all prices I’ve paid.
There may be yearly ups and downs, but for buyers looking for a 3-10+ year play, I wouldn’t wait if the property matches their needs. What I would be careful of, is buying cheaply built or cheaply flipped homes.
Do we not think that this time is a little different with the fact that homes doubled in price in a matter of two years?
@@nellybelly623 I certainly do not disagree. From a builders standpoint, I am constantly disturbed by how much a home cost to build these days.
The increases in values has been shocking.
But diving into data on the appraisal front for 20 years here, I do think we were under market in median pricing leading up to COVID considering our geography to the east coast and stable health care economy (and tourism). So covid really hit us with a double. Increase for below market and increase from COVID markets. This new tech sector with drive pricing as well. Check out home data in areas where tech has come in before.
Median in Nashville 2020 was around $306k and as of July 2024, almost $561k. A 5%-10%+ hit still leaves you up. Best resales though are always the good homes in good quality tracts.
But just my two cents. I just enjoy good discussion on the market like we have here. I do believe homes have reached a price point though in Nashville that has put significant strain on locals ability to buy homes.
Fascinating perspective thanks for sharing! Would be curious to get your thoughts on my latest video.
@@leverickhomes The tech sector is not stable and is currently in a downward spiral. Justifying any of the home pricing by saying data is too micro or macro is insane considering the pricing increase is not correlative with increase of wages. I’m not surprised someone who’s probably made some decent profit in the real estate sector is giving the advice you are, which seems disingenuous. Just my two cents.
Source: x3+ decade resident who works in big tech. I’ve processed the deactivation of laid of employees in the 6 digit range in the past 3 years across two companies. One giant in Nashville healthcare and research, the other is the largest cloud service provider globally.
So two schools of thought. First, fed will cut rates, recession hits, inventory goes up and prices come down. Second, fed cuts rate, soft landing happens and employment goes up as businesses decide to expand, prices go higher, inflation becomes out of control, huge recession comes in later part of 2025, peak decline in house prices by 2027
Both scenarios seem possible to me.
I think you framed it perfectly!
Agreed. Either way, I am waiting as this is a coin toss right now. I am leaning towards an earlier recession though.
@@EthanFlynn employment is not going up. If the 818k number showed us anything, it's that we don't know the rate of unemployment. This also means we don't really know the GDP either.
Another option, rates lower and inventory floods the market from all the people feeling trapped by their low rate
The fact that rates have come down by ~1.5% from peak and sales volume is still declining is another great indicator that the market is running out of steam.
The sellers with equity will probably adjust and get out first. Those that bough more recently may be in for some hard truths in the next couple of months.
I think there’s a lot of equity that if spooked could move quickly.
hey there - we are set to close on a 2135 sq ft home in December, in Hermitage, at $455k (new build). Our rate is about 4.2%. Would love to get your thoughts on where that sits in context of the rest of Nashville. I do not want to end upside down - I CAN rent rather than buy.
Great job
Thanks Stephen!
The Fed rate cuts will drop prices at all price points. With lower rates, more people will list, hoping to move up or down, adding more inventory to the market. With higher unemployment, prices will have to come down to entice the buyers who are still employed.
Very possible if unemployment skyrockets.
If employment stays strong then I wonder just how much prices will drop? Lower rates with strong employment sound like a recipe for prices staying high.
National employment is higher, but not sure about Nashville. A lot of tech is coming and in the future that means higher but not sure about current market
@@EthanFlynn Historically, Fed rate cuts proceed to higher unemployment.
excellent analysis. just tell me the numbers. Ethan is also sensative to market segments too.
Thank you!
They will crash here. Homes cost more in mortgage price per month than you can rent them out. There are some that are ok but when you can't rent it for what you pay. Then those are bad deals.
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Fasten your seatbelts. The first to sell their homes are going to get the highest prices.
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In rental markets for the newly finished big apartment developments, the modal discount in terms of "months of free rent" has shifted in Nashville from 2 months to 3 months. Some are also waiving application fees on top of this. While such discounts are attractive, it means your annual rent in year two would see a 33% increase, as you pay over 12 months rather than 9. I cannot imagine people are dumb enough not to realize this trap is waiting for them.
At what point do developers in Nashville recognize that their pro-forma rental prices are just too high, and just knock down the listed asking rents? Would this not make more sense than carrying an empty building on the books, praying that it magically rents out in the future sometime? 2000 dollars a month for a 480sf studio in Metrocenter is not going to happen.
What’s more shocking is that even these promos they are still negative DSCR.
I don’t know how long the game can go on because I would have thought there would be high profile foreclosures months ago. So far it’s just GVA.
🌴🌴🌴 Hey my friend Ethan 👋🏼. I highly agree with you that home prices will continue to get lower and lower in Nashville and the surrounding areas. When I first started watching your channel I believe that I made these kind of statements regarding a real estate crash. However like I also mentioned that I never was effected financially in the market in the 2008 hard times. This bubble will definitely pop. But I feel that the Nashville area is pretty strong financially and will be one of the last states to get hit in the next crash 💥.
It’s all starting to happen and until then I’ll be saving my money, paying off debts and getting my credit score as high as I can. I really do appreciate all the data you share. Thank you Sir for continuing keeping an eye on things.
I hope that you’re finding great clients to buy and sell in these very strange times.
See you next Saturday.
Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
Thank you Carlos!
I noticed prices are softening in Nashville
Excellent as always. I vote for waiting at any price point. I do live in Williamson. I sold my home at the top almost 2yrs ago. Parked my gain in short-term Treasuries and equities, leased a home under market value, and am patiently waiting for all the Fed's bungling to catch up with it all. Will there be a crash in Williamson? Nope, too much money in Williamson. Mortgage rates don't really mean anything here because most people have enough excess cash to effectively "buy down" the rate or pay outright cash. Will there be a small softening on price? Perhaps. I'm just waiting and looking to cherry-pick a place that will be my last purchase. BTW, Mexican triple BBB-rated bills are paying nearly 11%. Very nice.
No kidding! Congrats on the timing. And it totally makes sense to wait for most people. I wish I understood fx currencies better.
There's no way prices will go down, lol.
@@ABruckner8 have you ever heard of the greater fool theory?
@@EthanFlynn Nope! And I'm an avid investor, though not in real estate. Real estate entertains me. We're on two years of "bubble burst any day now!" and it hasn't happened. East TN here.
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Great clip! Milton Friedman 🫶
Milton is awesome.