New Build FIRE SALE Happening Now | Nashville Housing Update
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- Опубліковано 9 лют 2025
- This is a Data centric Analytical approach to the Nashville Tn Housing Market. We look at trends in active listings, median price, mortgage rates, contracts, rent rates
Ethan Flynn
www.ethanflynn.com
423-767-6000
tflynn@realtracs.com
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/e...
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TN CPA License: 24309
TN Real Estate License: 356949
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www.realtracs.com
Recurve Real Estate
DANA JORGENSEN
PRINCIPAL BROKER | OWNER
LICENSE: 344195
(615) 496-3837
dana@recurverealestate.com
#housingmarketupdate #nashville #housingcrash #housingmarket
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
Best mid tn real estate channel by far
The builders in Utah are out of this world insane. New neighborhoods near me sitting completely empty for almost a year now, each with 50+ houses and lots sitting vacant. You look up the price of the homes and they are still trying to sell for $800k+. These homes 5 years ago were between $300k - $400k homes. Absolutely obsurd. Let them all collect dust and rot. Don't be fooled we all know this appreciation is insane. No need to give them validity that these homes are worth this. Prices are coming down but this is a slow burn be patient.
Developer bought my parents house with a couple of acres plus the neighbors property in Davidson County Brentwood two years ago, tore the houses down, and got zoning approval to rebuild. Now reselling for a million less than they have invested in the properties.
Oh wow. Care to share? Email in description.
@@EthanFlynnsent
There's a brand new build in my neighborhood in Franklin. They tore down the previous home and erected a GIANT modern house that sticks out like a sore thumb as its backdrop are ranches half its size built in the 1960s. They've been trying to sell it since October of 2022. Started at 1.4m and now they've only dropped the price by 100k. Nearly $450 per sq/ft. Can't imagine the holding costs on that thing. Stubborn.
What a coincidence to see VHP in Lebanon. Some context for you - the properties you are viewing there are a new subdivision called Hartman Crossing.. lacks a lot of amenities that VHP has despite it being the same builder. In your data you can see the final phase the builder was selling at all time highs for VHP; and when they opened phase 1 of HC it was back to lower prices. Assuming the trend will only continue up for both neighborhoods.
Great info. Thank you!
i love confirming my bias and hearing what i like to hear as it is what i've been hoping for and expecting.
obviously im joking mostly, but it is nice seeing someone professionally lay out heaps of data supporting the thesis i've been planning for. some one who is more objective than i am, as of course ill try to confirm my thoughts.
thanks for your continual gold mine of technical analysis and data driven approach as always ethan. your information is only getting better as you appear to be learning coding and such for a more holistic approach. If half realtors spent half as much time as you do, i think people wouldn't have such a bad idea when they think of the profession.
Ethan, At about 1:18 in the video you say,”….they’re not necessarily going to get picked up by the median price”, then continue discussing median price. I understand median price, but don’t understand your comment that I included here in quotes. Thank you
Greater Nashville Median Price can go higher while some neighborhood prices could be dropping dramatically and vice versa.
@@EthanFlynn thanks for your reply. It sounded like you were implying that the sales would somehow not be reported in the data and I wondered how that would happen. I appreciate the clarification
Can you do Clarksville?
Nashville housing market needs to drop 50%
How do you know if a loan is assumable?
You have to look at the DOT. Very hard to do in mass without having mortgage info which I have. Reach out if you are looking in Nashville.
@@EthanFlynn Thank you for the info. I had briefly discussed assuming a friends mortgage but his agent quickly talked him out of it. You perked my ears up when you mentioned it. I'm closer to Clarksville...Not looking just yet but I'll certainly keep you in mind for the future.
Hey Ethan, I just started watching your content the past month or so because I am new to the Nashville real estate market and I think your content is amazing! I know you discuss a lot about the shorter term or within a couple years, but I was curious on your thoughts for Greater Nashville in the longer 10-15 year time horizon. I was especially curious about the riverside north development in Bordeaux and your thoughts there. Thanks for making some really valuable content for people in the area again!
Bullish on Nashville in the long run.
Good stuff
Glad you enjoyed
Sounds like they want to get some extra contracts signed before YE. A lot of DFW area builders do this too
@@HumphreyU I think so.
Prices are the main problem. Current interest rates are at historical avg levels. There is an imbalance between current prices, median incomes, and interest rates. We arrived at this imbalance because the GFC zero interest rate response by the Fed while right at the time, was held far, far too long. Of course there are a host of other factors but this is the main culprit. Anytime asset appreciation is driven MAINLY by cheap debt rather than incomes and true supply and demand...well...you have a major issue that will last a very long time. Each component must stay in relative balance. incomes, cost of debt, supply.
100% agree. How do we get back? Inflation and negative real price growth.
@@EthanFlynn It is a very complex problem now. Not so much because it is "complex" to understand, but rather because of the interconnectedness of choosing what has to "suffer". I am a pure capitalist, and the issue is too involved for a post, but here's a starter; if you look at the rate of Federal income tax, state income tax, fees, which is in direct relationship to gov. overspending you get an idea of where the disparity of personal incomes to asset prices/inflation begin to get out of hand. In other words the excess of those items represent a money supply/wage take-away from people. in addition to that, another way to look at the massive amount of cash and cash equivalents that large corporations own (and yes I believe in corp profits) like say Apple, then you begin to see perhaps a way for them to pay higher wages that are more in line with the true cost economy. But the biggest problem is recessive taxes/fees, cheap Federal debt, and gov overspending. The "supply" of money is there, it's just a question of who holds it and how they utilize it. Sorry for the ramble. It truly is too complex for a post. What a mess the Federal Reserve and both sides of the political aisle these officials have created. Love your content. I send it to my kids all the time as they live in Nashville and Franklin and can hopefully benefit from your data and ideas. :))
I’d love to use this data for where I live now! (Wilmington NC)
Any chance to demo software or mess around?
Reach out and I can demo. Contact in description.
Im in the subdivision right across villages of hunter point and they're both new builds except mine already has a foreclosure
@@channelpink4376 really? Wow.
@@EthanFlynn yep. Lennar is still building in this subdivision and everything and there's already a foreclosure. It definitely caught me by surprise.
Can you email details of what you are seeing?
@@EthanFlynn Yes I just sent the email over to you
It is December. That’s the main caveat. We’ll see what the spring has in store.
That being said, appreciate the video. Great data points.
100%. It is December.
Thinking about moving to Nashville in your opinion where do you think is the best area for the money. I travel a lot so near Airport is a plus.
For the money? Hmmm....from a rent/salesprice standpoint I really like Hermitage. Also, a lot of assumable mortgages there. Reach out if you decide to buy and want help.
The prices on Nashville yards seem wildly optimistic. $1.5 for a 2/2 condo.
Seems wildly optimistic to me too. But there are wealthy buyers that like condos.
Thanks. A little off point, but I will drop this here... In my many years of checking home listing prices I have noticed a persistent phenomenon of roughly 20% of the listings of high end (top 10% of the market) homes listed at wildly high prices. Do you think these are mostly agent owners padding their listing numbers and possibly hoping to find a sucker from out of town to pay over market. Or do you think these are mostly just delusional home owners that actually want to sell their home, but have unrealistic expectations?
Both. There are some delusional buyers too that can pay a premium. Doesn’t happen as much but still see it from time to time.
🎄🌴🌴 Is your neighborhood tracker available to the public?
I’m not sure how long I’ve been watching your channel but I still remember telling you that things were going to crash 💥 even though prices were still going up.
Well it has begun.
As you know I keep an eye on Mount Juliet and for the last year or so every home I’ve seen has had a starting price above $500,K but recently I’ve seen a lot more of them priced around $480,K.
I always enjoy watching your new data and your thoughts here.
Wishing you a very Merry Christmas 🎄.
Blessings,Carlos ✝️🙏❤️😊🇺🇸
Will be soon! But happy to send you an invite if you want to test it Carlos. You’ve been watching the channel for years. Shoot me an email if you want to give it a try.
The show is just getting started. It moves to existing homes in a big way at some point.
🤞
It's a "feedback loop" that works both ways.. higher prices create higher prices, until they don't. Lower prices create lower prices, until they don't.
I live in Manchester and there are new builds collecting dust that have been on market well over 300 days now. The Zillows will say only 30 days on market but they keep deleting the lsiting and readding with the price a couple grand lower. Sorry ypur can ask 420k for a normal house in a city of a median income of 54k.
Can you send the listings? Contact in description
Interest rates are driving the housing market. The wildest phenomenon is that the 10 year is rising in the face of the FED cutting rates which demonstrates the markets concerns over how inflationary Trump’s stated goals are. Markets don’t like instability.
Anyone else seeing this in 240p? Super grainy
Nvm I use cricket wireless that’s likely the issue
😂. Glad you resolved. I just panicked.
All the Dots on your graphs are still blurry. But only the Dots. No big deal I was still able to follow.
@@SirCarlosMusicBMI The dots are blurry because they are set to be transparent. It’s intentional so that if they overlap you can see.
I know prices are going drop dramatically, because I just went under contract on a house LMAO. It was listed for 350k and I offered 320k, still think it's a good deal even if prices drop some.
@@MrGoldenlock nice. Way to offer much lower! Buying low is a great hedge.
@@EthanFlynn I was able to offer much lower because I didn't have a real estate agent. They had higher offers from investors with agents, but chose mine to save 3%. You do good work but it makes more sense for you to sell your information as a consultant than to get a percentage of sale price.
Mr.Goldenlock...That doesnt make sense. 3% on 300000 is only 9k. So the reason they didnt sell it to the developer had nothing to do with the 3%.
@@capecrusader6932 It does make sense. They told me they had an offer for $325k that had a realtor, so they made more money by selling it to me for 320k, saving the $9,750 they would have had to pay the other buyer's realtor at $325k
@@capecrusader6932 It does make sense. They had an offer at 325k with realtor so they would have had to pay $9,750 fee to that realtor. So they took mine at 320k instead. Very basic math here.
Jerome Powell is an arsonist for our economy.
He should have been fired a long time ago IMO. The level of arrogance about inflation should have ended his and Yellen's career.
Powell has no idea where it’s going and he won’t take responsibility for his role in creating it. Disaster.
No clue
Can you review this property and the area?
1421 Japonica Aly, Hermitage, TN 37076