My husband grew up at 714 Hillwood Blvd - the 2.3mil was a fake sale. The guy who bought the house from his family (in 2017) was trying desperately to flip it for years and kept selling it to his own holding companies in order to try to make it seem more valuable. He's an investor from Asia
I think the corp home buyers do stuff like that too. if they own a few houses in a neighborhood they dont mind largley over paying for the last 2 or 3 cause it makes comps better for the ones they are about to put on the market. in my opinion its market manipulation. When Zillow offered me 50k more for a house that did not make any logical sense i started to think what could their motivation could be IMO of course..no facts just conjecture
I am betting on a mortgage rate increase per the bond market. The bond market players are EXTREMELY sophisticated in their analysis and outlook, which is why they play 10 yrs out. Another great video. And how refreshing that you seem to be the ONLY real estate person in this area who actually takes a stock market/bond/business analysis view of the market. The best advice I ever received from my business attorney many yrs ago was "Know your numbers".
median sales prices are only up because of the disparitey of well off buyers saturating the completed sales. Less volume in general where what is actually selling is to higher income brackets. This can be seen by how the average age of a buyer in 2024 was like 56 or something, about 10 years older than in 2019 and first time home buyers are at the lowest percentage since tracking of this metric began in 1981. If the only people buying are old people with money in general and theres less volume, its no surprise that the median sales price is rising. Thats the nuanced way to read the data
It is like the stock market. A lot of times, value is not real. It is a byproduct of stupid market dynamics and mostly momentum. Basically, dumb people buying extremely overpriced houses is what is creating "value". Not the actual value of houses. Once investment firms dump their housing stockpiles they bought up in 2020 they can tank the values overnight. I'm not saying that houses are bad to buy if you are sitting on mountains of cash, I just worry that the average buyer is not actually loaded with the kind of money that could sustain a long term healthy market. It smells like 2006-2008. Money coming from nowhere, given to people who don't have the income streams the support it.
I see bigger risks to buyers through insurance costs, if they can find it at all in the future. Plus renting gives more flexibility and freedom of movement. That's important now that climate impacts are accelerating.
What a market! Just sold a property in Davidson county for 335 after being in the market for 7 months and so many price drops. Looking to buy in Lavergne/smyrna those areas are priced well right now
@ thank you Ethan, I see all the comments and there is a lot of concern on the Nashville market overall. Would you be open to doing a Q&A with us your subscribers
Nope - no way. Not with climate impacts accelerating. And those increased risks will be reflected in your mortgage interest rate and your insurance costs, if they don't drop you after a year or two.
@ Right, that's what it's going to take. A big market correction and LOTS of layoffs. Something that would force the locals that got in before the inflation to have to distressed sell. Even then, If they had to sell at 15-20% less, they'd still likely be in profit or at least have the equity to support it, so I don't think we're going to see anything crazy like 50%. Middle TN was pretty resilient during the '08-'12 crash if I recall correction.
Nashville is not cooked... it is just getting started. For anyone who has visited Austin over the decades, it is unrecognizable. Same thing is happening to Nashville - there are going to be yearly ups and downs for sure, but long term, the population will double and then double again within maybe 10 years.
www.ethanflynn.com
Let's talk! Book time here: calendly.com/ethanflynn/30min
@@EthanFlynn Bought 12 years ago
My husband grew up at 714 Hillwood Blvd - the 2.3mil was a fake sale. The guy who bought the house from his family (in 2017) was trying desperately to flip it for years and kept selling it to his own holding companies in order to try to make it seem more valuable. He's an investor from Asia
@@ThaliaIrwin Thank you for that info! I was actually wondering that. It looked fake. I will do more research on it.
I think the corp home buyers do stuff like that too. if they own a few houses in a neighborhood they dont mind largley over paying for the last 2 or 3 cause it makes comps better for the ones they are about to put on the market. in my opinion its market manipulation. When Zillow offered me 50k more for a house that did not make any logical sense i started to think what could their motivation could be IMO of course..no facts just conjecture
The commenter is right, Nashville is absolutely cooked. Has been for a while
Infrastructure in Nashville is cooked.
Love the neighborhood tracker! Nobody else has that. Location, location, location, and across the street is a different market.
@@samharris82 Thank you Sam!
I am betting on a mortgage rate increase per the bond market. The bond market players are EXTREMELY sophisticated in their analysis and outlook, which is why they play 10 yrs out. Another great video. And how refreshing that you seem to be the ONLY real estate person in this area who actually takes a stock market/bond/business analysis view of the market. The best advice I ever received from my business attorney many yrs ago was "Know your numbers".
I hope you know the Keeling Curve numbers too.
median sales prices are only up because of the disparitey of well off buyers saturating the completed sales. Less volume in general where what is actually selling is to higher income brackets. This can be seen by how the average age of a buyer in 2024 was like 56 or something, about 10 years older than in 2019 and first time home buyers are at the lowest percentage since tracking of this metric began in 1981.
If the only people buying are old people with money in general and theres less volume, its no surprise that the median sales price is rising. Thats the nuanced way to read the data
You are right on the money about Maury being impacted by automotive layoffs. The GM suppliers in Spring Hill have cut back on work since August 2024.
Wow. Thanks for the info. I hate to hear that.
Ethan, I’m not looking for house right now, just a huge fan of the data and charts haha. Thank you
What happened to your kristi cavalaterri house video?
The list agents got really mad. I guess it hit a little too close to home 🤷♂️. I used their footage so I had to pull it.
@@EthanFlynngood info, though.
Hahahah😂
Repost it with blurred images and the address where folks can see it for themselves. Crybaby agents shouldn't get their way.@@EthanFlynn
Not surprising, she probably google searches her name every day. I will memorialize my $4.9M sales prediction here.
Appreciate your video every weekend!!
It is like the stock market. A lot of times, value is not real. It is a byproduct of stupid market dynamics and mostly momentum. Basically, dumb people buying extremely overpriced houses is what is creating "value". Not the actual value of houses. Once investment firms dump their housing stockpiles they bought up in 2020 they can tank the values overnight. I'm not saying that houses are bad to buy if you are sitting on mountains of cash, I just worry that the average buyer is not actually loaded with the kind of money that could sustain a long term healthy market. It smells like 2006-2008. Money coming from nowhere, given to people who don't have the income streams the support it.
I see bigger risks to buyers through insurance costs, if they can find it at all in the future. Plus renting gives more flexibility and freedom of movement. That's important now that climate impacts are accelerating.
Great Intel I’m in Smyrna and it’s ridiculous. bought at 140,000 now it’s crazy
@@thedistinguishedgentlemen1008 congrats! $140K sounds like a dream.
$140 sounds like a down payment. You sure are lucky to have bought when it was that low. And the interest rate I’m guessing you have!
What a market! Just sold a property in Davidson county for 335 after being in the market for 7 months and so many price drops. Looking to buy in Lavergne/smyrna those areas are priced well right now
@@rauldiaz6115 congratulations on the sell. Best of luck on your search.
@ thank you Ethan,
I see all the comments and there is a lot of concern on the Nashville market overall. Would you be open to doing a Q&A with us your subscribers
Ethan Flynn telling me I'm cooked is kinda gutwrenching ngl.
I don’t even know what it means 😂
@ It means we're toast.
714 Hillwood sold for ~225/ft which is an anomaly in that neighborhood
Look at 6104 Hickory Valley
@@onmusicandsound I’ll check it out. Thanks!
Nope - no way. Not with climate impacts accelerating. And those increased risks will be reflected in your mortgage interest rate and your insurance costs, if they don't drop you after a year or two.
Seeing the median price trend, we might be "cooked" but not the way they think we are 😂
@@misterringer it’s wild to see it.
It will crash here. Gm in spring hill will be going dpwn to 1 shoft by the end of the year. Nissan will be laying people off.
The housing market here isn't dependent on local incomes. If it were it would have crashed 2 years ago.
Stocks will be crashing also and that will effect it.
@ Right, that's what it's going to take. A big market correction and LOTS of layoffs. Something that would force the locals that got in before the inflation to have to distressed sell.
Even then, If they had to sell at 15-20% less, they'd still likely be in profit or at least have the equity to support it, so I don't think we're going to see anything crazy like 50%. Middle TN was pretty resilient during the '08-'12 crash if I recall correction.
Nashville is not cooked... it is just getting started. For anyone who has visited Austin over the decades, it is unrecognizable. Same thing is happening to Nashville - there are going to be yearly ups and downs for sure, but long term, the population will double and then double again within maybe 10 years.
Nah Austin had better demographics
The time to buy Nashville real estate was 2013- 2020. You’re late to the party otherwise