Trying to Understand Rougned Odor | Stat Stories
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- Опубліковано 11 вер 2024
- Rougned Odor had one of the oddest seasons in 2017. I would call it the worst power-hitting season of all-time. 2019 wasn't great either, but the thing is, he may have been better than his stats suggest.
In this video, I show how Odor has had a consistent career in terms of WAR, but not in how he's accumulated that value. I then show how his 2017 and 2019 seasons were very odd as far as power numbers go. While 2017 was just bad, there is reason to believe that Odor was better than we think in 2019.
From an increased walk rate to an increase in hard hits and barrels, Rougned Odor should have been a well above-average hitter in 2019. But something was holding him back.
Picture credits are given when necessary and intended for commentary, criticism, and educational purposes under fair use.
Music: Dulled- Videoscribe Audio Library
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As always, leave any video suggestions in the comments. Next week will be a "what happened to" video for a certain southpaw!
Outta Here Baseball ⚾️ You should do a MLB predictions for the 2020 season !
Probably better when Spring Training ends or when it’s opening day
I dont think I'll do a traditional predictions video cause that's not really what I do. However, I could do a video on interesting milestones or stat lines to look for this year
Outta Here Baseball that’s nice also you could do that 🤩
Outta Here Baseball like who to watch
Wesley Orozco 10 Haunting Photos Taken Moments Before Disaster
Being a Rangers fan watching Odor over the years is simply maddening.
Jarryd He has so much potential...
JustClancy no he doesnt
When I think of Rougned Odor, I think of Dan Uggla. I'm not sure how fair of a comparison that is, though.
I see the thought process there. Odor will be 26 this season which is how old Uggla was in his rookie season!
www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ugglada01.shtml#2006-2013-sum:batting_standard
Ikr. Nothing but homers.
When you brought up “Expected Weighted On Base Average After Contact,” literally all I saw was “Expected Without Bacon” (xwoBACON). Then I made bacon. Because, ya know, bacon.
I did a study on him comparing him to Elvis Andrus. Obviously I'm a Ranger fan. Check it out.
Numbers in baseball are the great equalizer. There are now so many ways to evaluate a player statistically that it really isn't even necessary to watch the games to determine a player's effectiveness. When it comes down to it, many players are just living statistical formulas that can be programmed into a spreadsheet and a pretty qualified approximation can be deduced from it. They are still people though, and that's what complicates things. That's also what makes the game interesting, so that's the reason they play the games instead of simulating them like one could in a video game.
With all of that said, I present the case to you of Player A vs Player B. Both are middle infielders, both have been integral parts of playoff teams, and both have had significant careers exceeding 800 games played.
Let us consider the merits of Player A.
Batting Statistics
162 Game Average
Runs-82
Hits-143
2B-30
3B-5
RBI-85
SB-12
BB-37
Career
OPS+ 89
Defense (Career)
Fielding Percentage-.975
RF/9-4.70
lgRF9-4.36
RF/9 -- Range Factor per 9 Inn
9 * (Putouts + Assists) / Innings Played
lgRF9 -- League Range Factor per 9 Inn
Average Range Factor the league
9 * (Putouts + Assists) / Innings Played
Now let us consider the merits of Player B.
Batting Statistics
162 Game Average
Runs-88
Hits-172
2B-30
3B-5
RBI-63
SB-12
BB-51
Career
OPS+ 87
Defense (Career)
Fielding Percentage-.973
RF/9-4.48
lgRF9-4.18
What can we tell so far? Both are above average defensively and slightly below average offensively. One drives the ball a little more and gets more RBIs, whereas one gets on base a little more. Any guesses so far?
Now I'll start to separate the two.
HR/At Bat
Player A-22.2 (136 HR in 3020 AB)
Player B-85.7 (73 HR in 6263 AB)
You might have a pretty good idea about which two middle infielders I'm talking about now. I didn't include homers in the beginning because it's such a big separator.
Now for the salary comparison. The rub for a long time has been that player A is overpaid, but is he? Since Player A signed in 2017, here are his salaries and WAR in every year since.
2017-$1 million (-0.4 WAR)
2018-$3 million (2.7 WAR)
2019-$7.5 million (-0.3 WAR)
Total salary-$11.5 million
Total WAR 2.0
Value-$5.75 million/WAR
Now lets take a look at Player B and see how he compares. Player B signed his current contract extension in 2015. Here are his salaries and corresponding WAR.
2015-$15 million (2.1 WAR)
2016-$15 million (3.7 WAR)
2017-$15 million (4.5 WAR)
2018-$15 million (1.7 WAR)
2019-$15 million (1.9 WAR)
Total salary-$75 million
Total WAR 13.9
Value $5.39 million/WAR
As we can see, Player B has been slightly more valuable than Player A over the lifetime of his contract so far, and with the league average value of 1 win above replacement equating to about $6.5 million dollars, we can see that both players have actually outplayed their contracts relative to WAR.
So who are the players? Player A is Rougned Odor. Player B is Elvis Andrus. People have a lot of opinions on both players, and I'm not here to sway someone on one player or the other. What I am saying however, is that Rougned Odor hasn't been as bad as people tend to want to think, and that Elvis Andrus has been as good as what may be perceived. Based on the numbers, their overall value is about equal.
It's been said by Rangers club management players will have a shorter leash this season, and obviously that assertion has been aimed at Rougned Odor. And there may be a very obvious reason for it-his salary relative to value. At about $4 million per year, Odor's salary is palpable relative to on field value. But from 2020 on, his salary jumps to $9 million this season, $12 million in 2021 and 2022, and up to $13.5 million in 2023. At his current rate of production, Odor doesn't have enough value to continue to be a lead anvil at second base. He must contribute to be guaranteed a role with the Rangers.
Every year brings change. Games occur, players age, and slowly over time every one of them is replaced. It doesn't seem that long ago that Hamilton, Beltre, and Cruz made up the middle of the lineup. Today it's likely some machination of Gallo, Frazier, and Calhoun. In 2022 it might be Jung, Gallo, and Huff, and the names we are used to today may be old memories in the near future. Every one of these guys are replaceable, and it's only a matter of time before the roster turns over again. Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus may be a part of that future. But there's just as good a chance we're debating the statistical credentials of Nick Solak and Chris Seise before we realize how much change there's been. The time is now, but then again, the time is always now.
Awesome stuff! Andrus and Odor have been on that team so long, but idk how much longer they'll be there
Yeah Elvis gets by on what he did pre 2014, a great smile, and his relationship with Beltre. He's pretty mediocre statistically, but there isn't really any imminent replacement unless you want to offload the farm for Javy Baez or something. I think Odor can about be a great player, but it all has to click. It certainly can, but the million dollar question around here is "will it?"
Woah that’s some stats
Hey man, that video's gold. Great informations, even better delivery, keep it up big man!
Maybe a "what happened to Yu Darvish" video would be great, with stats before/after being robbed by the Stros in WS?
Hey thanks! I'll add Darvish to the list and see what I find!
"as we get closer to a new season of baseball" lol sike you thought
Lol sike you thought
Odor hits bombs in mlb the show
For real! I've hit some moonshots with him and Mazara
It's somewhat interesting to note that, when he batted in the bottom half of the order, he played better defense statically. Another out of the ordinary anomaly.
Personally I think this comes down to his approach at the plate. When odor hits best, he’s an attack minded hitter. He appears to be working on increasing his walk percentage, and while getting on base is obviously a good thing, he needs to attack fastballs early in counts. This comes down to his mind set at the plate. He needs to go into an at bat ready to attack, not looking to draw walks.
Out of all the symbols available for you to use on your graph and all of the deodorant brands in the world, you choose to represent Odor with Old Spice^TM. Nice👍
Thank you for giving a Rangers fan hope that he can do better 🙏🏼
Does anyone else think he looks like a kid with beard?
Do Joey Votto and why he’s a future hall of famer
As a Rangers fan Odor frustrates me, he has so much potential but watching him strikeout over and over again on high and in fastballs is so maddening
I feel like this season, Odor will have less pressure on him, and can relax a bit insofar as it goes. He may do better. Hopefully Gallo stays healthy. Hopefully our pitching staff actually performs outside of Lynn and Minor. Lot of variables for the Rangers.
great vid, I love your work bobby!
Feels like Rougie has been in the majors forever for him to be entering his 26 year old season.
Nice video buddy!
As a Ranger's fan, Odor is a frustrating player to say the least
you should project how syndergaard will do when he comes back from his surgery
This is great. don't follow AL teams as much and I don't work in the industry but man I'd expect this would carry weight in a Front Office somewhere. What would it take to get a Padres video out of ya? ;)
I'll make a Padres video eventually! Maybe one on Tommy Pham if he does well
It’s ok because his team has virtually no expectations any time soon. I think he will have plenty of opportunities to figure it out. If he were playing for a contender, he’d be gone.
Odor gives off a bad odor... a .236 career hitter, anemic .289 career OBP, Strikes out 4x more than he walks... He stinks!
That error to let the Jays sweep them in 2016 broke him
Wheres Joey Bats on this graph though?
I think of a mini Joey Gallo lol
how close are you to philadelphia with that accent lol
Dang you got me 😂 I lived in south jersey til I was 7, about 20-30 mins out of philly
@@outtaherebaseball3205 ill pat myself on the back for that one
Rather get punched out in may then knocked out in October.....
sorry I had too
Rougned Odor: Astros killer
Odor... odor... deODORant... got it
He mathis’d with 30 home runs
🤔
he just has too big of a swing
I just cane here to say I haaaaaate Roughened Odor. That is all.
hes the big mid
The phobic input radiologically undress because example collectively watch abaft a right asia. breezy, paltry susan