Why Genoa Is Graying: Italy's Demographic Decline || Peter Zeihan
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- Опубліковано 5 жов 2024
- While the Italians may have mastered the arts of pasta, wine and gelato, they should have been spending less time in the kitchen and more in...another room. That's right, we're looking at the demographic problems facing Italy, and Genoa will be our example.
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#italy #demographics #population
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In Italy there are a lot of old people but the big problem is that young people trying to create value are treated like trash with low salaries and criminal job practices.
Thanks for that information. I was thinking, there must be a reason no young people want to invest their time there.
My brother is a pilot and he works with a lot of Italian air crews, almost all of them say there’s no future for them in Italy. Also know a young couple in Rome, both have jobs but they have to live with their parents so having kids is postponed indefinitely. It‘s really sad because I love Italy. Visited many times as a tourist.
That's most industrialized nations today, sadly.
So not much different than the USA or any other capitalist country. AKA - "Late stage capitalism"
That’s what happens when an economy is centrally planned. There is not engine to drive jobs so that young people get a start in life.
Showing the lights was the best graphic I've seen for demonstrating the problem visually . Thanks
It is not a problem for me and mine 🎉🎉🎉
No, it's stupid, the apartment buildings near me are mostly the same... and they're not abandoned or anything. Who keeps the light on in every room for example? People watch TV with the lights off, and on and on....
It is absolute nonsense. Peopel turn of the lights, and especially in Summer are more outdoors in the evening.
This is what reduced birth rates do, play it forward 5 decades, and you run out of people to solve the problem. Some groups of people freak out when animals start down this path and try to save them. Unfortunately, humans don't typically breed like rabbits when in urban situations. On the farm, kids are free laborers. In the city, there are expensive talking points, and people have fewer. This isn't a hard concept to understand. it's just very hard to swallow for most since it is us.
@@seancole7087 bioscience ahead.
I left Genova when I was 30 yo and the simple reason is that it doesn't offer much opportunities for young people. Liguria is the more depressed region in the north of Italy.
Just tourism with Santha Margherita de Ligure or something?
Fantastic intro, but it should be mentioned that 16% of homes in Genoa are second homes ("holiday homes"), according to the Italian Natianal Statistics Office, in 2023, and usually still empty on this time of the year. I should also imagine that there are quite a few hotels around the centre, so more unoccupied space. However, the issue is absolutely true.
It’s the middle of summer the place should be buzzing right now.
Most Italian people are on vacation for long stretches of the summer, no?
At this time of year
If anything that should further increase the concerns, as that's a very seasonal tax based and wouldn't provide stable income for the local government.
@@Art-is-craft Middle of winter and 2 weeks in Aug is the season for Urban Italy unless your walking off a cruise ship. The beaches along the med will give the 80+ year olds with the wealth all the heat stroke. IF you want to stay clear of some EU banking issues, the other house is in Austria or Switzerland. Something you can get a swiss loan on, and something you can get a EU loan on. Swing back and forth the payments, and wherever else the other money comes from gets hidden. 95% the other money is from nations currently under saction by the EU/US or someone in china who will never set foot outside of china.
Insular as F but dont trust their own currency. If you got billions, ships. If you got millions, condos.
Hey Peter, my grandchildren are in Genoa. As its school holidays, most families clear off to the mountains or somewhere cooler.
A lot of things are a bit different in Italy... Much economic activity is unaccounted. But the productivity of the factories and workshops is astounding, and the fecundity of the land, mind blowing. I’ve friends in poorer regions who are not being paid their state pension, or the payments get later and later. But the community still holds together, and everybody looks out for each other. The only thing real cash is required for is fuel for the car; everything else can be worked out within a group of friends. This simply doesn’t bear academic analysis.
You are saying that everything expect for car fuel is bartered for?
Sounds like Cuba
@@tas11117 "Barter" is too formal. People are often extraordinarily generous, with no specific expectation of a return on their generosity. There is strong family and social cohesion, and away from the big cities, a civic community spirit. There's also distrust of the government and some of its institutions, so people are less willing to pay taxes.
My cousin just left from there, also there are no incentives to have children pretty much anywhere in the world.
Vinny?
Not only are there no incentives, there's a significant number of drawbacks. You get shafted all the time: by employers (schedule, flexibility, pay), by the govt (childcare, Healthcare, loss of income), by childless people (culture, your kids will have to carry their burden)... No wonder people don't have kids.
Yeah even the US credits a couple grand for up to 2 kids and allows you to deduct a portion of daycare from your income.... last year my newborn child cost something like $30k out of pocket and my tax reduction was about $2300. That's a net benefit of -$27k to my household income. Businesses get better tax policy on free coffee in the break rooms.
Russia and Singapore pay women to have children. Problem is, it doesn’t work.
The incentives to have kids are you're own. It's like saying the government hasn't provided enough incentive to eat.
I’m 24 and from england and pretty much everyone I know would love to start a new life in Italy rather than London. The italians can attract a lot of talented and industtrious young people if they choose to index on tech.
"The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence."
English people would come back within a year once they experienced Italian working culture and realised they weren't living a coastal lifestyle.
@@roryfitzpatrick3571 what is Italian work culture like in tech?
3 million young Italians have left over the last 20 yrs alone.
There must be a reason for that.
Problem is that Italians are scared by innovation. They live in the past, they hate change, they hate novelty, they hate the different. And of course populism from left and right is cashing in votes on this atavistic suicidal delusion.
A side note: I enjoy Peter's analysis and I can understand what he wants to show by pointing at the house lights. But you know, it is summer and Genova is a sea city. In Italy people have dinner in a range from 7 to 9 PM - after that, people usually get out for a walk, the elders go to sleep. Genova is an aging city but still, Italian cities are not empty - they are mostly the rural villages that are getting emptier and emptier every year.
Exactly, when he mentions old people on the countryside saying that young people moved to cities, it should be noted that the young people usually move mostly to cities like Rome, Milan, Bologna and Torino where they have more education or job opportunities.
My guy the population of Genoa has decreased every year since 1972. Thats with urbanization.
Hes not wrong. And he even mentioned it more generally.
@@2639thebossGenova is one of the oldest city in the country, and is losing population, but mind, the city was not really losing population since 1970s, I mean, yes, if you see the statistics you will see the town lost population, like all Italian cities, but because of the sprawl: people were moving to the surrounding hinterland. My city, Padova, had probably ~40% more population in the late 70s, at the time my father was living with his 3 brothers in my grandparent’s home, now my grandparents live alone in the same house: my father, and my uncles all moved to the near small towns around, whose population increased.
So yes, TFR went below replacement in the 70s and the population started ageing, but started declining like 10 years ago on average, where I live maybe after ~covid time
@@stefanoparlatore7141there’s also a weird thing with population conversation nowadays also. We never ask what is the optimal population that can exist and be sustainable with the high quality of life that the west is used to. Places cannot grow indefinitely that is unsustainable, nor can they go don’t to zero and be sustainable. This is just a broad perspective I have on this topic, but I think shrinking population in the short run (100 years) is costly but in the long run (1000 years) will lead to a better balance and sustainable population.
@@stefanoparlatore7141 Its almost like you are trying to argue that Italy isn't losing population. The United Nations projections on population say the country lost people every year since 2014. They hit a high of 60,322,791 and are currently estimated at 58,697,744 for a loss of just over 1.6 million people. Its an average loss of about .2% of the total population per year. Attempting to ignore for the covid years in there, the percentage loss per year is increasing. That's not sprawl... that population decline. Current projections are that the population will drop below 50M by 2056 (and be darn old on average as 30 years later, it is expected to drop below 40M people). Of course some things will happen along the way and the future isn't completely predictable... but population collapse for the foreseeable future is pretty much baked in at this point.
I'm an architect from Colombia, here people said that "poor people has a lot of kids and that's why I don't want one" but when I did one assignment I realized that most of the neighborhoods around the uni had a really high average age, +40 and some were in the 50's and there were several houses that were going to be abandoned or the sons or daughter that could inherit were living in another countries and had no interest on those houses, I talked about those findings with people in my family, friend group and even uni, and pretty much everyone dismissed them and told me I was crazy and that people still have kids but most of them are poor, and the thing is that the data says that it's false Information but no one cared
Sometimes people don’t want to believe something so they won’t believe it no matter how true it actually is. They can’t be convinced out of their mindset. Your comment is very interesting to me. Thanks for sharing.
I am currently reading Factfulness by H. Rosling and the first chapters are exactly about this problem, people, for some reason, often do not update their data and base their image of the world on state that had existed 10, 20, even 50 years ago.
@@MrToradragon oooh that looks like a good read. Never heard of it - will check it out!
@@thepianist7084 true, when I told that info to my friends and they dismissed it I felt so frustrated because we were supposed to be in the "best university in the country" but they ignore data and went the lazy/ignorant route because that was going against their beliefs.
something like that also happened to me when I told one person that pregnancies after 35 years were considered geriatric but when I show the definition they actually got angry
@@felipe21994 “confirmation bias” is an insidious affliction!
"Poland can fix their population problem if they get on it" - I think you mean "if they get it on".....
No. Literally getting on it😂😂
No Peter actually thinks that Poland will be "Saved" if they import millions of african migrants to replace their aging workforce. To Peter, nations are not a people, they are simply economic zones to be judged solely on their GDP growth. He won't say that the quality of person makes all the difference. You cannot just replace a Pole with a Congolese.
@@mrbobsevil Polish girls genetically know a fun time when it is offered or needed by the state. The line in the 1980s was "Never get in a hotel elevator with 2 polish blonds." "Because one is really from moscow and needs to sign the timecard."
@@abeeba2495 "Get down on it111!!!!!!
@@mrbobsevil That is France today: Rhey have a positive birth rate, but only because Islamic Immigrants have as many children as possible .... there WILL Absolutely be a "France" in 40 years, but it won't be very French.... in 60 years, It might be the "Caliphate of Faransa" ...
Fifty years ago, in Genoa as in other Italian cities, during the summer evenings there were no room left on the sidewalks (pavements) for people to walk, because of the sheer number of people walking.
Nowadays the sidewalks during the summer are empty - or free, depending on the viewpoint. The people filling the Italian towns and cities, haven't been renewed...
The problem lies in the population the world over has risen far too rapidly. Each increase in technology allowed for fewer people doing jobs that used to require many more. As population growth accelerated the replacement of people as they aged could only keep up for a short time before replacement slows and we have population aging out. Immigration is the only answer if a given country is a community is to survive.
Sounds like there were too many people then
Forget looking at the lights in the buildings just look at the empty sidewalks only 3 or 5 people that I could see.
That's what business districts everywhere look like well after the working hours of the day. Not unique to Italy and not a good data point.
To be fair he's in the business district. Not a lot of business at 10pm.
it's a business district at night, what he's doing is like going to colosseum on a sunny afternoon, looking around at all the tourists, and then concluding that there are almost no italians that live in Rome.
@@FellowHuman18 But it is the 6th biggest city in Italy and there is what looks like a park and open business next to those buildings. I am sure if you went to the 6th biggest city in the US you would see more than 5 people.
@@michaelmockridge3928 But it is the 6th biggest city in Italy and there is what looks like a park and open business next to those buildings. I am sure if you went to the 6th biggest city in the US you would see more than 5 people.
Millions of young Italians have left over the last 20 yrs. Italy needs to attract these people back and make the country a better place to live and have a career.
Where did they go? England?
@@johnpombrio Europe and beyond
Good luck with that,try to keep the ones you have. No country even Italy with its food and climate are not getting those people back. Even if they will retire there they will work in a country that has its shit together. The effort it takes to migrate and rebuild a life is sometimes for 20 and 30 something’s.
If somebody had left so long ago, they most likely have whole new life in some other country and unless the situation in their new home will turn terribly bad, why would they want to return to place they most likely already have only weak connection?
@@MrToradragon Italians don't have a weak connection to Italy.
Children are so important in sustaining our future! My Texas great great grandfather died in 1886. He two wives and 17 children! Raising that many children today would be impossible. Society has changed in so many ways since 1886.
its only impossible if you also want to live the way you live today. you won't sacrifice your disposable income. if you live in a 2 bedroom hut and spent all your money on food, worked 2 jobs and wore hand-me-down close you could do it easy enough.
Yes, for some strange reason we also don't have graveyards full of young women and babies. Ah, the good old days!
You could probably raise 17 kids today if you were willing to endure the same low standard of living that people had in 1886 (no car, simple food, no indoor plumbing, only owning a few clothing items and handwashimg them yourself). Don't kid yourself, life was very tough in the 1880s, the people were just also tough.
Having lived in Italy for three years, there's no way Italy can pull off the logistics to re-populate themselves via immigration. This would require a level of execution within the bureaucratic agencies that has never existed and will never exist. "Urgency" is not a word within their government's lexicon let alone the very nature of their bureaucrats. They will attempt to iterate various golden visa concepts, but this will funnel down to the same multi-step hierarchy of agency sign-offs, fees, permits, certifications, legal hold-ups, we're closed all of August and during the World Cup, etc. If it takes, on average, an Italian citizen 9 months to buy a house, imagine how arduous Italy will make an immigration application.
That's a good thing that they do not want to genocide themselves how do people promote the genocide of white people like you are promoting a toy or something immigration is not a good solution look at the major cities in france or the UK they look like pakistan and africa how exactly did that help? Now you have terrorist attacks acid attacks knife crime like never before also a lot of anti white racism this will create genocides and ethnic tensions there has never been a society that did implode once they allowed multiculturalism look at rome or greece or egypt etc they all collapses once they allowed mass immigration.
@@thomasjacks936 people are still waiting for their expired permesso di sogiorno, FOR A YEAR AFTER THEY'RE EXPIRED
I spent some time in Genoa years ago for work. Most apartments there have shutters, not curtains, but it still looks darker than I remember a similar view from my apartment. Everybody there seemed to do the same stuff at exactly the same time. The main road would be quiet one moment and then gridlocked the next. The buses to work (near the airport in my case) would be overflowing during peak times but almost empty at others. But the company didn't allow you to start work early, because of silly union rules! I eventually ended up sometimes walking the 3km (2 miles) to work or taking a bus into town and then taking the municipal boat past the airport. Every now and then I saw groups of men looking very happy excited and in each case it had to do with some upcoming strike. Efficiency wasn't very important....
you're right about shutters. but center of Milano feels empty as well - they're selling to renting companies and leaving elsewhere.
While efficiency is important, worker rights and health are more important. You are free to go be a slave or slavedriver where there are no "silly union rules".
@@_6HavoK9 To not be allowed to start work early even if you want to, is definitely a "silly union rule". You drew a line across the very wide gap between that and being a "slave", and without justification in my opinion.
I almost miss my cruise in april in Genova ,i stayed in same street like he but that sunday it was marathon off some kind and whole center was closed up on that street where that building is ,and port is like 5 km from there ,policemen did not speak english so he show me to completely other way and google maps show i need to completely around 40 km for that 5km ,but even that 40km was like ages because it was whole traffic there and snail moving ,i went off appartment at 10 Am arrived at port at 1:30 PM for 5 km , i really tought i will miss it
I know someone that was living in France in the 1970s. He told we there were billboard and other advertisements saying 'Give France a Baby".
As Americans we moved to France in 1979 the first year we were there the French government sent my parents a big check when they asked why they were told because they had 4 kids
France seems to have their demographic house in order, at least compared to Germany or Italy.
My wife and I bicycled through Northern France and ended up in Paris in the early 80s they had posters that said to drivers "Don't play with pedestrians!" i.e. see how close they could come to them. It was so scary to ride a bicycle in Paris that we ended up walking our bikes on the sidewalks for most of the time.
Another weird poster was a Catholic priest standing on the bed between a terrified couple. Forgot what THAT was all about, heh.
Around 20 years ago, Australia had "One for Mum, one for Dad, one for the country".
Same problems there as everywhere else: expenses WAY outpacing incomes, too expensive to make families
you know, people used to have 8 kids and they owned dust. so maybe come up with a deeper perspective.
-signed a guy who has a kid and it's not that bad
@@AaronRClark before urbanisation, people did not have to pay rent, electricity costs, water costs, telecommunication costs, garbage collection costs, car maintenance and gas costs, insurances (some insurances are mandatory), .... They were used to much simper but also much cheaper life.
@@AaronRClarkplease look at actual budgets. When my grandparents lived in my neighborhood a family apartment rented for a week’s wage for the surrounding factories. Today it is more like a month’s wage.
Excessive housing prices resulting from restrictive zoning and excessive regulation drove up housing costs in many of the largest job markets. Unsurprisingly, people could not afford to have children.
The poorly-constructed, outrageously expensive US welfare system makes it worse by funding through payroll taxes (it should be funded on capital gains) and pouring good money after bad on foolish metrics.
We could solve it all with simple policy fixes like unrestricted multi family development and ending special tax treatments for capital gains (tax it all as ordinary income the year it is incurred).
@@AaronRClark I think it is Mr. Zeihan who came with the phrase in village children are asset, in city they are liability.
Another problem is in general stability of rents, the fact that they are extremely high in comparison to income, job security, again can be poor, even thou the economies of the west are lacking people. if you can't get long term rent nor buy house, nor are able to purchase one nor you could get stable job because the common practice is to issue as much short term contracts as possible and just chain them, then you will most likely not be able to find partner or start family. Bear in mind that the rate of young men who did not engage in intimate activities in past year is steadily growing in the west for decades, they are not seen as viable partners. And that is about 1/3rd of the cohort between 20 and 30 (or maybe 20 and 35, depends on statistics) That means that there is something not working properly. Sure, the income/cost disparity is not only sole reason for all that, but it is quite huge if not dominant reason for those problems.
Another reason could be, again tied to economy, the ponzi pensions schemes, the PAYG systems that were only stable as long as there was more people entering them than being paid from them. Today those systems are effectively redistributing wealth from not haves to haves. They are effectively redistributing income of younger generations that, for 15 years, has adverse situation on housing markets, compared to older generations, to generations, often significantly larger than the younger one, to generation that had it easier in terms of purchase of housing. For example.
To put it in perspective, 20 years ago, in Czechia, for every pensioner you had 5 working age people, within 5-10 years you will get about two working age people for one pensioner and the average pension as percentage as average wage grew over time as well. It is about 60 % of net average wage or about 45-50 % of gross average wage.So the average Millennial will have to pay double or tripple (ant that could be still low estimate) the percentage of their income to pension system that their parents had to back in late 90's and early 2000's. All the while the prices of housing, relative to average income, went up by 50-100 %, depending on city. And If I take in account average costs of children per month, in Czechia, they are roughly equivalent of 1/3rd of average pension. So, if one couple pays one pensioner, then they theoretical capacity to have children is down by 3 children, per couple. In the past 25 year the theoretical capacity went down by 1.5 Children per couple, at least. And i am not adding all the other stuff like price of housing, rents, energy, that went up significantly.
And there is one unfunny thing also about the rents, most of the houses and flats are owned exactly by generation that will retire in next 5-10 years. And given the fact the the rent is again between 1.5-3 children equivalent. This means that one generation will prevent their children and possibly grandchildren from having their own families as all the resources that could be used for raising a children will be transferred to somebody else.
Well as this is the first time I did those rough estimates, I am basically speechless as it is even worse than I have thought before.
They had 8 kids, 2 of them dying during infancy, and the remaining being used as child labour.
I mean if you want self financing kids have at it XD
A lot of countries are suffering from this, mostly developed countries.
Having children in cities is child abuse
No, all countries. Developed countries are just further down the pipeline because they had women work and birth control for longer. The worst are all Asian btw.
Many countries in the so called "developing" world are also having a huge drop in fertility. Probably Brazil´s ppopulation will be decreasing in 10 years.
Including the USA, but Zeihan will never address this elephant in the room that has been created by the 2007 financial crisis. The US never recovered.
@@schtreg9140 interesting point, I usually forget that. Makes one wonder why some people are crying about immigrants "stealing" jobs while also not doing anything to regulate housing price control so more people can start families.
Was in italy for a month this year. Most workers in italian cities seem to be from bangladesh/ pakistan or Africa.
Depends on the city. Some others are mostly Italian and in others Eastern Europeans
Yep. I'm noticing more of them this year in the outdoor markets as buyers and I'm assuming they are working in computer related fields such as the U.S. ,They are from India and Pakistan immigrants.
@@govinda102000 ...somebody has to do the work ?
@@agaragar21 For sure. Italy is experiencing the low birth rate to workers ratio as China and the U.S. Or perhaps more are just living with elders and not wanting to work.
I thought you were going to say, "bring in Canadians". And I was like, "ya hoo!".
Haha, exactly... but wouldn't it make sense? With the house prices in Canada plus the cold weather... I am sure a few hundred thousand younger folk would like to try their luck under Italian sun.
In Canada the lights are on but nobody's home says most people from the US, not myself though he states paradoxically because I'm not from the US!?!
the weirdest part if how majestic all of italy is. the majesty of their cities, hundreds of towns of indescribably ancient beauty. incredible landscapes. and the impressive modern age of architecture and infrastructure. all to join the ancient ruins that preceeded them. almost creepy to think about
To wit there are over 600 communities or villages in Italy that have been abandoned because the population has aged or moved out. They are ghost towns with medieval era buildings. Picturesque to be sure, but also quite dead.
Ten years ago in Italy with my kids, I took note of how few children there were out and about. When I asked, the overwhelming response from Italians was “we would love to have children… but we cannot afford it”. There was quite a sense of sadness about it.
italian girls are very hypergamous and prefer Nordic ones
I was there 20 years ago and the whole place felt like the grocery store in mid day during the week here in the states.
I am an Italian citizen, as well as Canadian. I am considering moving to Italy. My kids are also citizens. Italy is a shitty place to try and make money as there is corruption and and a really old way of living. However, Canada is quickly sliding into being unlivable and I have enough equity in my properties to cash out and live better in Italy. It's a big change though.
If you have multiple properties with equity in Canada, you are the problem. Go
Yes, Italy could "reimport" its diaspora as Italian here in Canada still have babies. And honestly, while economic opportunities are better here in Canada, as a French-Canadian, I would much prefer live in Italy than here (climate, lifestyle, food, etc.). I just wounder if South Italian have more kids than North Italians. Do you know?
@missj.4760 They offer dual citizenship for 3-4 gens. The problem is that they only want the people with money, and it is a prohibitively expensive and tedious process. Basically, it eliminates young people.
@@Nylon_riot It may change when they will need workers to pay the pensions for the retired.
@ChristopherMHeaps people owning a couple of properties has never been a problem and isn't a problem now. The problem is brining in 1.5 million people a year and not building a damn thing. Whether it's an apartment, house , road or hospital. Too many people too quick is the only problem
I support Italy!!! Thank you Italy for saving my grandpa in WW2, even though we were on different sides . ❤️
That sounds like an interesting story
Yes original italian here, I'd love to know more details of this story
@@giacomostefanoni7634 "original" lol
Yep. My grandpa gave up his U.S. citizenship to fight with the fascist stationed in Libya. His family immigrated back to Italy just after he was born in the U.S. My mother had been born in 1936 before he renounced his citizenship since she was able to immigrate after getting married and brought over both sides of the family including my grandfather. However he went awol when he heard the allies landed in Africa so he never got a military pention.
Energy prices have also hit hard for the working class in Italy and elsewhere. Our friend has an electric/gas bill as much as their rent.
Worth remembering various wars like these inter-generational wars are often class wars in disguise. In this case, 45 years worth of it. Reaganomics saw the breaking of the old social contracts that saw resource transfers to the young, to see them healthy*, well educated*, forming household and having kids. We cut these transfers when they should have been being increased. *Health and education are the keystone to upward social mobility and being an advanced economy.
Helll we are introducing new kibble in Rome for advanced project
🎉
In my country, Germany, you can see the politcal implication of this trend: The biggest voter group is 60+ years old. Now ask yourself who the political parties have to butter up to.... hint: Its neither families or young people. Therefore, we still have large areas in the country without any cellphone connectivity, mobile payment is an adventure, internet speed an embarrassment and every infrastructure the working people need is crumbling. No serious political party can affort to have long term policies. So, our old ones recently got an pension raise thats so big, that it had to be "financed" by dept. Guess I will be one of the many who will have to pay for it...
Cell phones are the least of worries. Housing development was more important but all of you through the mandate of government decided to use trillions in economic productivity for policy that limited houses and development. When was the last Germany town or village designed and incorporated?
The boomers have had a very easy ride and will remain selfish to the end it seems. That voting issue is true in many countries. Young people may come to resent boomers more than the "1%".
Just wondering who will clean the boomer's a..es in the retirement homes in a few years.
I can tell you - my kids won't. Raising children in Germany esp. in the cities is really no fun because of the general attitude against them. ("shhhhh!")
I don't know what Italy made wrong. Maybe Germany absorbed all the italian dads to let them work in our automotive plants back then in the 50/60/70s.
I spend a lot of time to show my kids the world and tell 'em to leave as soon as possible...
No connectivity means no contact, Internet, etc.
There has been a huge Italian diaspora created since the end of WW2 and in places like Canada, the US, and Australia, Italians in these places have kept strong links to their culture and identity as Italians. Italy is a beautiful country with so many houses available and affordable. If I was Meloni I would be marketing an Italian Renaissance to the great/grandchildren of Italian migrants. Offer immediate citizenship and a housing deal. In Australia, we have just over 1 million people who identify as having Italian ancestry, but in the US it is 17 million. If I had to choose between living in the US or Italy, it would be a no-brainer; Viva Italia!
Having a house is the easy part actually, it is the job that really matters. No major company is going to expand in Italy due to the amount of regulation, especially on labor. So you get a mass informal economy that doesn't produce much value. And for many that works just fine.
While a part of me is cackling that our shortsighted, greed based plans are coming back to bite us, the other part is confident that we are clever monkeys that usually figure things out in the end. The sad part is always that same; the poorest citizens will bare the brunt of the solutions.
Every body will suffer not just the working class. The rich that see the writing on the wall and act early will be ok but there are not too many doing that.
Sure, we or our descendants will figure things out, but only for a while. Ultimately, our shortcomings will catch up to us as they do every civilization. The western Roman empire lasted into the 5th century before its collapse. The eastern Roman empire lasted another 1000 years before it collapsed. Etc.etc.
Now with the population maxing out in most countries the people are aging out and the population is declining again. Some people call this a crisis and even claim that the world could handle many more people, but they are wrong because the environment is collapsing with the current population which is still growing in some places.
I hope our Italian friends can figure a way out of this -- cheers from Canada!
Speaking from Lombardy, Italy: we are simply too much, when we will be 40 millions and not 60 millions, Italy will be a paradise (again).
Also, in Europe, lovely cities are blighted by so many properties being second homes or Airbnb.
also by mass immigration paris looks like africa now and london is an islamic city now it's not a good thing to genocide Europeans i thought we were all against genocide.
Do you have some data about that? I am asking because few years ago one party in Prague had used this rhetoric about evil Air BnB and how it is make the housing unaffordable and so on, and then it turned out that the number of flats used for Air BnB was so low, that the number of council owned housing that was at the time not rented due to various reasons, e.g. poor state, was higher than number of flats used for Air BnB.
In Japan, they have a lot of older workers who work well into what would normally be considered retirement age. It's helping with maintaining the tax base.
Peter provides actual Genoa population stats in his newsletter intro to this video. From 900-some to 680-some thousand in the period he talks about.
As a 27-year-old techie whose skills command mid-to-upper 6 figures in the US, I am an expat that countries compete for. I am looking for jurisdiction with secure property right, easy naturalization in 5 years or less, ability to bring my aging parents with me, friendly tax regime, diverse food scene (and no I don’t like Italian food, they think tomato is a spice), good public schools and ability to integrate into a local society. Settler societies like USA, Canada, Australia check most, if not all, boxes. European countries like Sweden and UK are making improvements (Sweden doesn’t require Swedish for naturalization for instance). Italy satisfies none of the criteria - I don’t know who in their right mind would move there
@@dmitrytorba4800 Actually Italy satisfies everything you mentioned. You should inform yourself better.
Would all this mean that prices for houses goes down?
In Italy, sure. House in the hinterlands are very inexpensive, compared to Sedona, Arizona, USA
@@JackHawkinswrites but you don't want to live in hinterlands, where there's 1 bar, 1 tobacco, 1 pharmacy and that's about all entertainment besides stunning mountain views. you want to live in the likes of Milano and Torino, in Rome, and that's where prices are in line with everything else, they're sky-high.
Nope, in rural places the house prices are going down but in the cities where it actually makes sense for a young person to live in like Rome or Milano housing prices are extremely high for wages earned by young adults.
Down? Yeah, try buying or just renting a house in MIlan or Venice....
Nope. Not in the big cities, at least.
I'm glad that you have been in my hometown, and I agree with the general discourse about italian and genoese demographics, however most of the demographic shrinking is visible in the peripheries, while the parts of the city you are pointing at are quite fully populated (mainly by old people, yes).
Peter, you yourself have noted the conundrum of having kids in highly developed vs more primitive societies. In less advanced, more agrarian countries kids are seen as free labor, where in modern societies they are little more than expensive furniture. Humans are a paradox, designed for adversity and hardship, and when presented with affluence they cannot handle it for any extended period of time. Idle hands and idle minds, so the saying goes.
But a country/culture has to have a replacement generation or it all stops. That is just reality.
@@Art-is-craft This is NOT TRUE. In history humans there were never more than 1 Billion people until recently. Humans need to REDUCE their population to this number. At our current pace this will take 200 years.
When a society seeks and attains prosperity, it comes at a steep cost (i.e. high taxes and costs of living), whereby children essentially become huge net liabilities, at least short-term. It leads to short-sighted decisions not to reproduce, and eventually results in an existential threat to that society.
@@Art-is-craft A country has a continuous replacement population if it grows slowly, but that is not the way of the world as technology has evolved. The more centralized populations grew it led to a stratified society and leaders hungry for power and acquisition of land.
Our rapid population growth prevents the possibility of sustained replacement as people age.
For your information, Eddie Murphy, the famous actor, has 9 kids.
Thanks for that uplifting pep talk my friend.
Thanks for the great perspective ❤
More observations and remarks like this, please.
An aside at the end - traveling hints 😉
"Canadian style immigration"
I brought my kids to the beach yesterday...we were a SUPER MINORITY at a beach I grew up on.
😢🇨🇦
So what? People are people.
At least there were other people on the beach.
You say that like it’s a bad thing
@@larrycoonrod5563 there needs to fewer of them. Going to the beach reflects that.
Back in the day my parents told me how lucky I was to be born here..that means shit now
..seems we have the best of them coming here I will add. We don't have the shit the UK or France has, good people, just too many.
The "right way" to deal with the problem would be to "turn back time". Peter does indeed have a unique perspective.
German here...our population is still growing and we are running out of living space in the cities. Yes, our old people are highly annoying because they prevent basically any change. But how can you persistently proclaim our doom and downfall when we are definitely not running out of people?!
Retiree NIMBYs drive the inflation of house prices in California too.
Actual German people or immigrants?? Big fucking difference. Most immigrants still want to live like they did back home in shit home countries.
I just came back from Italy, one thing that struck me was there were a lot of service jobs were done by foreigners , most from Africa and the far east.
Cus the Italians abandoned the place.
The choice of many of these nations seems now to be that they either allow themselves to be culturally subsumed, or they go through a period of horrific suffering and collapse based on aging. I imagine that Italy will choose the latter based on what I understand about their cultural opinions
I would argue that being "culturally subsumed" by third world savages is worse than a "collapse based on aging".
no,when the first pensions won't be payed fo a few months,everyone here will ask for immigrants. An this shoulf happen within the next 12/15 years if the predictions of ISTAT (the italian official statistics office) is to be believed.
It doesn't really strike me as very confident to think that your culture can't withstand modest amount of imigration.
The Countries who overly produce populations are least likely to look after themselves or subsume other countries effectively without turning them into basket cases, wars will most probably reduce their numbers drastically anyway and the West can turn things around, it does not yet have the will to do so, it's not too late for the West but it is for "some" Countries, China will most probably provide the fate that awaits Countries near terminal decline and this will focus minds (Japan's population is older but far more fitter overall)!?!
@@victorcapel2755 it isnt "modest" to import 3/4ths of the working population, yet if you have 1 child per women for 2 generations, thats the shortfall
1:43 'young' for Italy means people in their 60s...
Happy birthday to you sir!
There’s videos of Some Americans purchasing inexpensive houses there but it seems like mostly middle age (not having any more children) to elderly people.
Yes... it would seem that house ownership is pushed with the hopes that a willing serfdom of immigrants will support them in their old age... the serfs will get wise some time... just saying.
Mostly just for vacationing.
Yes, those house deals are done by senior expats that already have the capital, as a vacation/retirement homes. Young people are very rare for the simple reason that career and work opportunities in those locations are insufficient, so not much potential for raising a family. It's a demographic black hole with benefits.
Old, retired Americans that contribute nothing to the system going to Europe for the lower cost of living. Young, skilled Europeans going to America for the higher salaries and higher standard of living.
Europe is getting shafted.
@@roguegryphonica3147 If you get paid for a job you willingly take, you are not a serf. Just saying.
Many countries have so many economic or cultural issues that discourage raising families, but there's so much pressure to not change so the country at large can change course. In the U.S., we have laws that protect a lot of expectant or recent mothers, but a number of employers try to find a way around them because they don't want the working mothers to inconvenience THEM, even if they understand that it's better for society to make it as easy as possible for workers to raise families. It's just a different way of being a NIMBY. "Yes, WE should do all of these things to improve our society, but I just don't want it to inconveniences ME."
1:30 when an Italian in a country town says “they all moved to the city” they mean move to Rome, London, Frankfurt, Berlin or Stockholm”. When they say “young” they mean 35-40+😂
and Milan considering that now most Milanese are of Southern origins. And its been like that since the 50's.
The people of genova have nice big shutters on their windows, to keep the sunlight out and the aircon in. Might explain the absence of domestic lights...
Thats why italy has to one euro homes to sell. These towns are almost abandoned in italy
Hey if we buy one how can we improve it hire contractor?
Same thing in downtown high rise condos in austin. Debt vehicles for wealth growth. Nothing of real utility.
The problem with immigration in Europe is that it failed, horribly. Countries like Sweden, Germany, France used to be extremely safe, but after 2015 immigration crisis they became extremely unsafe in some parts. Sweden being the best example of this, you have literal no-go zones in immigrant ghettos. So in my eyes, Canada style immigration plan can't work, at least not with people from Africa and Muslim world.
The Canadians are a lot smarter about vetting people that are let in, from my experience interacting with the immigrant populations in Canada. Most Canadian immigrants are hard working people with good civic values. What Sweden and Germany did was stupid, naive, and irresponsible.
Anime pfp
Hell Windsor Ontario Canada is celebrating the families they have "rescued" from GAZA!!??!! We are NOT smart about immigration here. @@BasePuma4007
Peter NEBER talks about the infrastructure collapse in the third world now that people are sooo desperate to come to west
I travel Africa and it’s getting crazy
One Zambian hospital said a whole ward left in a month to go to Europe and created big problems
That’s top of iceberg
He never talks about the people in west trapped on benefits that could mitigate immigration if like REFORM uk raising tax paying rate to encourage back to work etc
this. if Italy opens up, it won't be English, German or even Ukrainians who come in. it will be Egypt, Morocco and Asia.
Always so uplifting. Thank you Peter.
In the end, whoever makes the most babies will inherit the world that remains.
we are not far away from solving aging medically
The microplastics will help preserve us into our 110s… problem of course is that pretty soon the retirement age will have to be about 80.
Right now that is sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East.
@@RandomGuy-lu1en Oh really? and the flying cars are also close?
@@RandomGuy-lu1enEven if we "solved" aging, are you suggesting that people will continue to work indefinitely and not go into retirement? All you've described is a situation where the people who consume the most and generate the least get to do so indefinitely. That doesn't help the situation at all.
I just got back from Rome and my cousin told me how expensive housing is there verses their salaries, so I doesn't make sense that this is an issue. Also, energy is very expensive there, so the light analogy doesn't work. I was asked by my Air BnB host to shut off the AC and all of the lights when I left the apartment to go walk the town.
Less than a third lit up... Yes, yes... You know... I rarely use all rooms in my house at once. Typically I use exactly one room at any given time. So why exactly should the lights in the other rooms be on?
Trust the [lightbulb] science. 😅
He’s talking about demographics and part of that is how these buildings are not occupied by families where multiple people would be there and have multiple lights on.
@@aklimar2208 And I'm talking about "How does he know that?". In some rooms the lights are on, in most they're not. That's how it always has been in any house or apartment I've lived in (obviously only when it's dark outside and when I'm home), because sensible people don't keep the lights on in all the rooms they are currently not using. And nobody can use all rooms at once. So why is it significant in this case? It neither means that there are unoccupied apartments in those buildings (or less occupied apartments than there were 50 years ago), nor does it mean that the occupied apartments have less inhabitants per apartment than they had 50 years ago.
He's showing us a snapshot without anything to compare it to (like a photo from the same building several decades earlier) and tries to sell that as evidence (or and indication or whatever) for a trend.
@@phillipweber7195 You are correct in that Peter does not provide evidence or data or comparisons or anything else to back up his words. Everything is his opinion. The video and commentary about the lights was just a visual way to communicate his opinion.
@@aklimar2208 Okay. Maybe that's how it was meant.
But I'd like to see a lawyer using that kind of argument in a court: "My client is innocent, Your Honor, this video showing him killing, cooking and eating three babies is just the prosecutor's opinion."
As I see it, videos (as in actual footage) are typically used as more than just to say "This is my opinion." They are (if not faked) evidence of something, in this case merely evidence of the lights not being on in certain rooms. But if someone with some authority whom you trust (and why would a YT user be subscribed to a channel they don't trust?) implies that this footage shows this or that, then many will just believe it, as if it were actual proof.
I am once again astonished that everyone is only now catching up to what Mark Steyn was writing about twenty years ago.
People will emigrate to Italy but it won't be nice polite Canadians.
He said Canadian-style, meaning immigration like that which has taken place in Canada from other countries. Not Canadians moving to Italy.
@@christophersmith6510 I think Toronto on the Mediterranean sounds better than Mumbai on Lake Ontario, which is what Canada seems hell bent on creating.
A TON of Americans and Canadians are moving here, actually. The international residents' community in several regions (including mine, Tuscany) is growing so fast, most people don't even realize HOW fast.
@@Myria83Lies.
@@inelnos What? I live in Florence and I know many of them. They are buying properties everywhere (apartments and palazzi in the city center, villas and castles in the countryside). We had already had a boom of arrivals before the pandemic, but now the Florentine province is literally FLOODED by Americans, Canadians and British citizens. They are the first to comment the numbers: "Damn. Half the US seem to be moving here... Has it always been like this?".
I think there is still some migration of young Italians towards Milan or Rome or Bologna (major public university), but Peter is correct about the great picture.
Milan and Rome gets you trapped in renting forever. there's no future there. wages are low. rents are stratospheric.
Can you address the crazy cost of housing, and ability for younger people to save any money, which will dueectly effect child bearing.
He has discussed that in a couple different videos I think
Hello from Nice, just was down the coast in Menton and Monaco
Anyone else see that movie children of men ?
Love the depeche mode reference. :)
I feel attacked. I'm 36 and I go to bed before 9pm every night I'm not working. :)
Some of us are just boring and tired and need to get up in time to have coffee and be the first to view your nature walks.
Are you me?
@@Tea4Texas I don't think so. I said coffee, your name says tea. I could be wrong though, I'm too tired to think about it right now.
@@benholland3721 ahhh close then… but I still like your style.
Do you not have kids?
@@thomaskreke4635 I do. I go to bed the second they go to bed.
I wondered why Venice was so dark at night earlier this year; makes sense now!
Somehow we'll manage, until we are alive we csn still change curse
The problem is housing became so expensive when everyone moved to the cities. The best way out of this fertility crisis is it extremely subsidized housing for families
Can't be just housing, but also schools, after-school activities, career development, street security, and transportation that allows kids to get around town without their parents long before they can drive.
Their problem is that they make it very hard for ambitious people. So the migrants that stay there are only the most desperate
I’m such a big fan of Peter’s work that when the posts don’t show up on time at 6 AM, it kind a ruins my mood 😂
Good point because recently they showed Sardinia saying kids wanted to leave the island for the city because they do not want to raise goats.
However, if you join the booming shipping and/or the cruise industry (remember Colon/Columbus leaving the city and getting the dough from Isabella, the Queen of Castile), will your apartment have the lights on?
While you are still there ask if who is the best ever Goalkeeper of Italy (don't even dream of saying in my opinion ....).
Zoff lol
@@huna1950 Don't even dream of saying it in Genoa.
@@surajitgoswami1871 lol…but hear in mind when it comes to Americans and Peter is no exception…they are utterly hopeless trying to read the room when it comes to ANYTHING Europe…still it’s nice he’s not up a mountain or in an office to at a USA seminar and actually on the ground to places he speaks of with ahem an apparent expertise….and to ask him about football would make him even more irrelevant lol
Italy was the only team at the Euros from Western Europe that had a European team. Keep it that way.
You are literally cheerleading the country with the biggest demographic collapse 😂
@jkin1447 it will still be Italy though not a third world dump
@@jkin1447 youtube keeps deleting my comment about "new Europeans"
@@AP-iu2ty maybe because it’s racist?
@@jkin1447
How does immigration help demographics?
Check out the traffic (or lack thereof)! Seems like that’s also a similar bellwether to so few lights being on in the residential areas
What a sad and hopeless situation.
Not really. If anything, it lowers the cost of living and possibly better wages. The multiple European plagues killed a lot of Europeans, they cost of living lowered and wages went up... because there's less people to feed.
@@spicychad55 Lol you’ll just be a wallet for old people
Plagues effected everyone including old this time old remain and need help
Come to Alberta Peter! We need you to help kick start this separation
Having Children is Expensive. 🤷🏻♂️
I don’t Want to live in Poverty, in
order to feed & Educate a Child.
Thanks Peter.
2:13 as a Canadian, be careful what you wish for.
You don’t realize how important is immigration..
Nice to mention Japan. I live in central Tokyo and there are days where I don't see Japanese people in my area. Chinese, Vietnamese, Uzbeki, Indian, American, that's my street mostly. How different it was from pre covid where I felt special as a foreigner in Japan, now has turned into the Japanese being special in Japan.
The solution is so simple... Give women a 25% income tax discount for every dependent child under 18. From 4 or more kids you therefore pay no income tax. Encourages work and reproductive rates
Russia, Hungary, Singapore etc did that and it didn’t work. It’s as if women prefer other things to being mothers when given the chance.
Suddenly Billionaires will be seeking to marry (with prenup) spouses with four children 😂
How will countries with stagnent economic growth have any revenue at all after lower taxes to such an extent?
@@lemontec Depends how you define "didn't work". No it's not a magic solution but it helps. The Russian birth rate now is similar to the birth rate of white people in the USA.
@@lemontec Economy is only one factor. Space, and logistic play a really major role. The burden to coordinate your life between a job that eat up almost all your time and the need of the kids is at times unbearable. Our society revolves around production not family.
If there is so many countries with population problems you listed, is there enough immigrants in the world to fix it? You said a never ending immigration wave but from where? If you can find that wave for Italy where are going to find it for Germany? Is there a fix big/quick enough before a collapse, or is a collapse unavoidable and young people need to have bigger families to rebuild to old heights after the fall? Is it even possible to come back if these countries fall?
The collapse is unavoidable, and it is highly unlikely that things will come back to "normal.' However, there is a 12,000 year cyclical surprise waiting in the wings, to surprise us all sometime before 2050. Don't push your luck folks. 😇
There's no shortage of immigrants.
Don't worry Peter. Your boy is emailing communities in Sardinia for a 1 euro house.
I know someone who did that. It is basically: rebuilding a house around the shell of an old, unlivable house which you may not tear down. You must renovate
I will wait for a better deal before I relocate to Genoa, Tuscany, etc
@@RicBentley hello, if am not wrong, there are restrictions on renting out or selling such properties, isnt't it?
@@RicBentley that's fair but also I'm of Sardinian descent on both sides so I'm not interested in the mainland
@@RicBentleyyes the $1 deals are as great as they sound but there are lots of property’s in the $20,000-,$60,000 range that are move in ready just maybe not as nice as you’d like
As a Spaniard battled in tech for 20 years would love to move from North Europe to places like Spain or Italy. We have so much potential but the opportunities are scarce
Italians are thriving in other countries like the 🇺🇸, but socialism has killed them in Italy
Stop watching Ben Shapiro and look at yourself in the mirror
@@jkin1447 lol shut up
Socialism?
Socialism??? Has nothing to do with it.
US has no shortage of socialism, when it comes to money taken from taxes for thd military.
Brilliant observations! Thank you for all of your hard work and getting the pattern of population distribution out there for us to see.
This is a global phenomenon. Every country in the world have a falling birth rate, save for maybe one or two. Even sub-Saharan African countries are seeing their rates fall dramatically as they industrialize and educate their women. UN population predictions were release in 2020 and then massively reduced down just two years later. Global population will peak in my lifetime (51) and begin a horrible and painful drop that my children will feel the effects of. Humanity seems to have given up.
Humanity is an easily manipulated herd entity.($$$) I'm sure if it gets bad enough in about 20 years they will be brainwashing kids in school about this.
Little factoid: population prediction for Brazil in 2022 (based on 2010 census) 213 million; actual 2022 census result: 203 million.
I think that is a good thing. It's easier to feed less people than more people. More people use more resources, less people use less resources. Kinda works to our advantage in the end.
@@JD-hh9io How exactly is it easier to feed 100 retirees with 50 workers, than 100 retirees with 100 workers?
Bonus points, if agriculture in your area requires tools that can be produced only by industry that requires lets say 70 workers to maintain it.
We quadrupled the yields with modern agriculture, if you don’t have enough people to maintain infrastructure that make the civilization running, it won’t be “yay, there is only 150 of us, we can split food for 200 among less people” but more like “f*ck, there is 150 of us, and without modern provisions, we can produce food for 50”.
@@JD-hh9io the most inane thing I heard today. We have plenty of resources. It’s a distribution that’s a problem.
Hi Peter, big fan of yours, greetings from Turin!
This desire for unending exponential growth and the need to be constantly productive to the max means we don't have time nor the money to have kids. My wife and I decided not to have kids because we had careers we had to grow, we had financial constraints and the families aren't interested in helping us out because hey we live too far away because we had to move to a place that had jobs and couldn't live off in BFE.
Lol i thing i stayed in same building month ago ,there is VW store on base floor
Demographic decline means tough times for the foreseeable, but silver lining means substantially fewer people, with reduced demand for food and materials.
That can only be a net positive for future generations dealing with a less stressed environment...
Problem is, old people don't pay taxes or buy properties. The cost of their medical care skyrockets and there aren't as many healthy young people paying into the system to cover medical costs for all the old people.
@@TheBandit7613 That is why immigration needs to be allowed to occur in those counties at a manageable level where that is a problem to maintain the tax revenue of the community as well as caring for aging.
Well then it becomes population replacement doesn't it XD
I can solve all of this very easily, the rent is too damn high EVERYWHERE.
Dinner at 10 pm? In my country it's sleeping time already
He meant that people are done with dinner at that time and they should be home. In Italy dinner is in a range between 7 and 9 depending where you are, and during summer dinner can shift a bit later.
Could you do a video on Taiwanese demographics there? Their demographic journey has been fascinating and sad to see at the same time. I feel like right now they are at a crossroads between thriving and extinction.
Peter For President!
CIA deepstate for president?!
WE ALREADY HAVE BIDEN, WTF?!
I’m in Denmark and we have a good number of Italians working here, the pay is one of the highest in the E.U. We are also graying, in my town I’m pretty much the youngest at 61 years old.
Italy germany and japan are 3 oldest countries forgot korea
China, Greece, Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, Iraq…
@@kenos911 i was talking about demographics. germany is pretty young
Nope - it's actually South Korea, Chile and Spain according to 2024 first half data.
Italy could solve this problem if they wouldn’t make the process so long given citizenship to people of Italian decent. In currently in the process and they make it so hard that the only reason I’m doing it now is because my mom is retired and can do all the leg with for me, my brother, sister and kids. Many Italian-Americans give up once they hear the long process and work involved.
My grandkids are going to miss out on some great pizza!
Italian pizza is pretty bland