Very interesting video many thanks. However I think it depends on the league too, for example some league matches usually have high 0-0 odds due to their games scoring a lot. You can find matches with high 0-0 odds and 3-4 lay the draw odds. So there a value there.
If you lay at half time a goal will be more signficant and move the draw more. But some of that depends on how the match is playing out. The market will start to discount that after the first half.
I tend to measure return on stake. So my measurement is tiny compared to 5%, but still substaintal if you just measure the fact I am reusing my stake many times over.
@betangeltv Thanks! It makes sense you'd look at it like that. Your videos are really good. You actually come across really well, good voice and you balance it well talking slowly and in terms of how most would understand. I've done over 1.5's, under 2.5's and lay the draw. However, I know that horses is where it's at it seems. I've got a £3,000 re-usable bank roll and I'd love to £800+ profit per month on average throughout a year. I'm learning the Bet Angel software in depth and I'll purchase in due course and hopefully things will go well from there 🙏
Interesting. It's something I've thought about over the years but never really looked at. I wonder how it how it looks at those more favourable odds based on expected goals, or expected goals of the relevant team who are those odds.
Not really much detail in this video. Which matches should be chosen? When do you exit? Which type of matches do you let run to the end? Furthermore there is zero need to bring home and away into it. A home favourite at 1.8 is of no difference to an away favourite at 1.8.
Hi Peter, As always a super video, i do have one question, and i am guessing there are many ways of doing this, but in regards to insurance, what would be your approach to this, i am thinking something like back at whatever the under 0.5 odds is, and then lay for the same amount then draw is covered, yes do understand that there is a time gap where this is very vulnerable, i am however very interested in your approach to the "insurance" part of this, also if anyone else have any ideas i would love to hear that too . Kindest regards to all of you Michael Weber
I almost convered insurance in depth on this video, but ran out of time. Generally speaking it doesn't make sense as the price never moves enough to cover the cost of insurance. The only time it would work is at the extremes of the market.
@@betangeltv I kinda got that. Just thinking that the insurance sometimes might be too high. So question should really have been more like how to keep the cost down. Or simply look for valubet for insurance that would fit the criteria for laying the draw. Ones again thanks for an outstanding channel
@@dubs15 If you need insurance then your strategy has issues .... Your strategy should stand on it's own. Insurance will reduce profit. Insurance might help in an individual trade but if you always take insurance, you don't believe in the long term viability of the strategy.
The heat maps are great. Don't do football trading myself but that's great insight. Should be more likes!
Thanks, it's always a bit dissapointing when you share the results of 18,000 matches and only get a handful of likes.
on your order flow strategy, what exit strategy on losing position?
Very interesting video many thanks. However I think it depends on the league too, for example some league matches usually have high 0-0 odds due to their games scoring a lot. You can find matches with high 0-0 odds and 3-4 lay the draw odds. So there a value there.
Every time i try this strategy, after the second or third match there is a draw 0-0 that wipes my hopes in this approach.
So find matches where the home team is expected to score first and only lay odds with home team back prices of between 2.22-2.5......?
Have a watch of the video I do on predicting draws and use it in conjuction with that.
If you lay a bet at 3 decimal odd 100£ if you win you only get the double amount but if you lose, you lose 300£, how fair is that?
You only lose £200 at 3 decimal. The backer keeps there stake and you pay out £200.
Would it be best laying at half time in this case, since the draw odds would have dropped significantly after 45 minutes, meaning less liability?
If you lay at half time a goal will be more signficant and move the draw more. But some of that depends on how the match is playing out. The market will start to discount that after the first half.
Awesome and fun info, would it be possible to show that graph from hafltime aswell? :D
That would be a whole different video as the dynamics change a lot at half time.
"Making things look much simpler than what they are". Pot and kettle there Peter😀
LOL, I do it by accident because I'm well practised rather than because I want to flog an e-book.
Great video! Any idea what a realistic ROI would be throughout a year? I'm just looking at 5% ROI as my ideal target
I tend to measure return on stake. So my measurement is tiny compared to 5%, but still substaintal if you just measure the fact I am reusing my stake many times over.
@betangeltv Thanks! It makes sense you'd look at it like that. Your videos are really good. You actually come across really well, good voice and you balance it well talking slowly and in terms of how most would understand. I've done over 1.5's, under 2.5's and lay the draw. However, I know that horses is where it's at it seems. I've got a £3,000 re-usable bank roll and I'd love to £800+ profit per month on average throughout a year. I'm learning the Bet Angel software in depth and I'll purchase in due course and hopefully things will go well from there 🙏
Many thanks for your comments. It sounds like you are going about things the right way.
Thankyou, Peter. Is this data just English league or does it include Cup , International etc ?
Interesting. It's something I've thought about over the years but never really looked at. I wonder how it how it looks at those more favourable odds based on expected goals, or expected goals of the relevant team who are those odds.
If you learn to price a football market, that's the key to most football based systems.
Great video im back in love with lay the draw again
Welcome back
/admin and everyone's details were there 🤣- internet security was incredibly slack in the early days
Not really much detail in this video. Which matches should be chosen? When do you exit? Which type of matches do you let run to the end? Furthermore there is zero need to bring home and away into it. A home favourite at 1.8 is of no difference to an away favourite at 1.8.
Hi Peter, As always a super video, i do have one question, and i am guessing there are many ways of doing this, but in regards to insurance, what would be your approach to this, i am thinking something like back at whatever the under 0.5 odds is, and then lay for the same amount then draw is covered, yes do understand that there is a time gap where this is very vulnerable,
i am however very interested in your approach to the "insurance" part of this, also if anyone else have any ideas i would love to hear that too .
Kindest regards to all of you
Michael Weber
I almost convered insurance in depth on this video, but ran out of time.
Generally speaking it doesn't make sense as the price never moves enough to cover the cost of insurance. The only time it would work is at the extremes of the market.
@@betangeltv I kinda got that. Just thinking that the insurance sometimes might be too high. So question should really have been more like how to keep the cost down. Or simply look for valubet for insurance that would fit the criteria for laying the draw. Ones again thanks for an outstanding channel
@@dubs15 If you need insurance then your strategy has issues ....
Your strategy should stand on it's own. Insurance will reduce profit.
Insurance might help in an individual trade but if you always take insurance, you don't believe in the long term viability of the strategy.
Ryan Carruthers has been making money easily on LTD since Adam was a lad. 🤣
Ryan carruthers is hung like a mouse
@@faithtasha-b3z the biggest fraud on the internet he is mate. How he keeps a straight face I’ll never know.
Interesting , I created a version but never used
mind me asking what kind of version you made ?
Why is the profit so much in the red all the way along where the home side odds are so low and the home team score first?
That would be the case if the away team score first, I think you may be looking at that.