A Possible 2034 Future For The US Auto Industry
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- Опубліковано 7 чер 2024
- #acwj
What does the future hold for the US auto industry? What does a possible 2034 look like.
Today, hopefully with a bit of foresight and a touch of humor, I look at a hypothetical world of 2034!
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Stellantis goes bankrupt.🤣I can definitely imagine that because they’re a compilation of a bunch of terribly managed and poor quality brands.
Maybe Stellantis gets broken back up into a couple of companies? They seem like a pig's breakfast of well known but declining brands to me.
@@UncleJoeLITEYeah, bring back Chrysler Corporation, Fiat, Peugeot, and Opel, all independent of each other. Stellantis was such a dumb idea.
Here's the deal. I see them as a largely unmanageable mess of too many brands stepping all over each other. Like GM before their bankruptcy, but far, far worse in some ways.
However, if I'm doing a video predicting consolidation in the industry due to an economic recession, then breaking the company up doesn't make sense. So, I see brands being cancelled and consolidated within the company.
@@AllCarswithJonI agree. And the way Stellantis officials lied to us about consolidating and closing American factories when they clearly promised not to in the terms of the merger, just paves the way for more lies and consolidation up ahead. I hate how business people run a company to strip it instead of growing it. Like Chrysler under Fiat was initially the boost Chrysler needed, then Marchionne past away and FCA disintegrated and merged with PSA which then ruined Chrysler Corporation further. Sorry for the rant.😅
Wellum, I GUESS, after a BAILOUT, I think there is pressure by Governments, IMF (US led Int. Monetary Fund), & ECB (Euro Common Bank) for Car Companies to MERGE.
(1) I THINK CHYSLER GOT REEMED MY MERCEDES.
(2) Did FIAT REALLY WANT CHRSLER ??
(3) I know, I know, Emmisions & Crash Requirements; BUT, I would have LOVED to drive the Opel GT (GM was NOT going to let the Opel GT loose in American market as a much cheaper alternative to its domestic products & some of Opels small Sedans (probably same reasons). THAT ALL SAID, HOW CAN MAKE OPEL....
AND MESS UP ON VEGA... We're they trying to screw up the Vega. BETTING THE FARM on a controversial Aluminum Engine SEEMS DUMB.
Also in 2034 those simple 2003 vehicles that are easy to fix and a window into the golden age of not having a touch screen
Please don't get me all depressed this morning, Jon. I'm gonna just roll with you and see where we end up.
$150k for a 2035 Chevy Trax!! House $2.5 million. Household Wages $60k. Big Mac combo $65.99.
I reckon it will be worse than that the way things are going...
Many 50s and 60s era middle class homes in California are already listing for $1.5 million and up. I saw a video of a 50s era middle class Eichler mid-century modern home listed for $1.7 million! And it was practically in tear-down condition. The address is near Silicon Valley though.
These are low estimates
Nah average wage is gonna be 36k, and houses will be tens of millions
@@MisterMikeTexasthat’s because of all the people in California who agree they need more homes built, they just don’t want them built by them. The Not In My Back Yard movement tries to keep their property values high, at the expense of new homes being built. Austin, Texas is building new homes and rents are decreasing. California is losing population and the leadership seems to be okay with this all going down to protect the interests of a dying off group of homeowners who want their property taxes low and prices sky high.
Prop 13 which was passed by voters in 1978, locks property taxes based off of purchase date rather than true inflation adjusted value, giving longtime owners a subsidy and encouraging them to never sell the property.
They’re also doing really bad because land is expensive and everyone wants a single family home with a yard. It doesn’t work that way and continue to be affordable.
Who knows? By 2034, the largest ICE engine available might be a triple turbo 1.5 L 3-cylinder, and Mustang may have long since been put out to pasture due to poor sales, and the now very-constraining EPA emissions/fuel economy regs, joining Challenger, Camaro, Firebird, and long since departed AMC Javelin. Meanwhile, a 2034 Ford Escape is $120K.
God a 1.5 3 cylinder with 3 turbos is insane and I want it is bad in my yaris
@@rt_goblin_hoursScotty Kilmer may not be around to talk you out of it by then. I don't think he's on board with turbos.
Yep. These idiots need to be censored. I guess he doesn't want to live his life without tyranny.
Short of the Fed seizing more power to strong-arm states I can see some states being very different as far as auto regulations go with some being very strict or very lax. An example is my state of Florida doesn't even have vehicle inspections and pretty much anyone that can fog a window can get a license. I can see a Cash4Clunkers 2.0 occurring in the late 2020s to cull most of the non-hybrid gas vehicles, especially those made before the mid 2010s.
I will never own an EV
BEVs, an insane solution to an imaginary problem.
I'll be hanging on to my 1959 Chevy
I want to hear this again in ten years and compare.
Ngl I hate predictions but this is spot on
I will make sure to drive any car with an Iron Duke i4 and take it to one of these quiet zones and let everyone hear the amazing sound of crude 80s mechanisms
I just hope the future contains an electric pinto revivial
I've been thinking for a long time that EV conversions for classic cars would be a big business. I know that modern EV "skateboard" platforms are superior to any type of ICE to BEV conversions....but I think that many people would like to go to an electric motor if they could do it with a car they really enjoy driving.
@@warrenny there's ev tech being developed using hub motors which seem to be the best for ev conversions
As far as the pinto, I meant more so hey since pintos catch on fire and evs catch on fire what could possibly go wrong
@@rt_goblin_hours Sure.....even when I lived in San Diego nearly 20 years ago, there were EV conversions happening. The disadvantage for ICE to EV is the platform/chassis. Wasn't initially designed for carrying batteries, so the conversions are not ideal.
I just think that someway, especially with batteries being better (more power-less weight) a conversion could be standardized across many classic car models. Anyway, it was just an idea.
Some "Classic" conversions are more suitable than others for PURE Battery Electric Vehicle. As far as pure BEV, I BELIEVE WE ARE BEING BRAINWASHED INTO A IDEAL THAT IS NOT AN IDEAL.
That said, Minimization of HYBRID Components, SMALLER SIZE VEHICLES, AND FIERO TYPE PLASTIC OVER ALUMINUM SUBFRAME (I did not say Carbon Fiber) COULD LEAD TO BOTH EXCITING NEW VEHICLES & CLASSIC CONVERSIONS.
Only 20% are ICE vehicles....no way. More like 60% with 20% full electric
you covered all the bases with your prediction. it will be different but it will be the same. i'll stick my neck out and bet you'll be 100% correct.
You may have got a lot of this right, Jon. I think we have stretched the rubber band of technology too far in one direction, and the fallout is hard to predict. Ha, the rubber band of technology! Cheers 🇨🇦
Really cool story, bro.
in 2034 i'll still be driving my 03 ,02 and 1998. 08 is about as new as im ever going to go. things after that fell off a cliff.
Jon, I'm pleased to see someone else also appreciates the possibilities of Nikola. I'm hopeful!
Jon, oh Lord, I hope you're wrong. Nevertheless, thanks for the forecast!
Love the porch chats
We live in a centralized society the government will only get larger
If your assertion of a global financial crisis comes true, I wonder what, if any, car brand names don't survive (remembering 2008 and what Ford and GM had to do). Mitsubishi Motors comes to mind, but I don't know what their market share is in other parts of the world. I wonder if low price, reasonably reliable Chinese cars could kill them off in whatever markets they still occupy. In addition, there are a number of marques in Europe that aren't in the US market that could suffer a brand bloodbath.
I had predicted that by the mid to late 2030s, the auto industry would have failed again. Chrysler got bailed out in 1979, 2009 so continuing the trend 2039. Like you predicted with a GM factory in Africa and I keep saying that Gretchen Whitmer needs to wake up and realize that GM and Ford will bail on Michigan if they must. Michigan needs to work on being more diverse so when they inevitably fail again or leave for good, they aren’t hurt so bad.
Hello from Charlotte NC Keep up the good work making videos Jon. We may get an electric car by 2034, but I am forever keeping my 2011 Ford F-150 with a twin turbo Ecoboost. It's part of the family now. LOL
Hello! Here in Charlotte too. :)
@@AllCarswithJon Charlotte is kind of the Goldilocks zone in the country.
JON, this was a very juicy topic, indeed. Many brought out there ideas, opinions, attacked FABLES, brought out their own crystal balls, hunches, & doubts. The topic was ripe for ramifications of Technology, Government (message, policy, legislation) & Big Insurance Company influence, Safety issues (& Law Enforcement issues), future Traffic Control, American consumer Expectations, Predispositions, & Resistances, Energy & Ecology hopes & dreams, AND INHERENT QUALITIES OF AMERICAN SOCIETY IN GENERAL.
Needless to say, there will some "horse trading," negotiations, & lobbying between Government, the Big 3, & Foreign Manufacturers (Especially those that build in the U.S. 🇺🇸, Canada🇨🇦, and Mexico
🇲🇽. ALONG THE WAY, NEBULOUS & PRELIMINARY "STANDARDS" WILL HAVE TO BE DEVELOPED.
As for the Major External Threat....
How long can we keep "Barbarians at the Gate" (& at Bay). No doubt they will dump (excuse me market) to Asia, near Asia, Russia, Eastern Block, AND FINALLY PRESSING EUROPE'S MARKETS ??
Jon, I always enjoy your content, I’m a long time subscriber and a devoted fan and I’m really enjoying the outdoor videos. Thanks for sharing and keep up the great work.
Hey, thanks for the feedback on the walk-and-talk format! :)
You live in a really pretty neighborhood
Sounds like a great horror movie to me.
Ford should go back to the 1970s.
1970s Ford pick-up trucks were awesome.
Average new car price hits 100000
Get ready, everybody. These horrendous SUVs are gonna take over.
You're a tough nut to Crack. Can't tell what your opinion really is but guess that doesn't matter right? Any future is dystopian to those from the prior generations. I promise if I could go back in time I would pamper my 89 Integra and keep it forever. Alas it's a poster oven now and lives only in my heart.
I would have finalized the purchase of that Datsun 240z back in 1976 and stashed the car away somewhere.
Can you make a video about car and driver ad pontiac is back.😊
I mean, the official response from GM is “We understand the ad was a joke and it was not placed by GM or anyone affiliated with GM. We appreciate the passion for all our brands as well as a good sense of humor.”
Still, it's had me thinking if there's even the potential for a Pontiac revival. I may do a video on that thought, but no promises. :)
I expect a big fight in Congress over expansion of China based companies and brands in the USA/Canada. That could be affected by PRC's possible takeover of Taiwan. Geely is already in the USA, including with a plant, as own Volvo cars. I expect Geeley and BYD to force into the USA market due to challenging trade laws. They will be like Hyundai and Kia years ago, offer affordable cars, CUV and SUV to break into the market. The 40-40-20 mix of full EV's, hybrids and full IC's may be possible.Full IC's will have to be available in Alaska, most of Canada, and rural areas. I also think many won't have 2-3 car families, go back when only had 1 family vehicle. With many working at home, more cars may not be necessary or affordable. In the USA, Chrysler and Dodge will be long gone (I think they will be gone in a year or 2).
I didn’t know this guy was a dev he’s been in the server for awhile kinda low key laid back guy but you listen to him an you will be surprised
Guy is missing one key effect. Economy becomes seasonal depending on where you live. Up north economy slows down dramatically with winter and picks up in spring. That changes nearly everything and both people and investment money go south.
Mark Cuban will continue to be a boob in any decade. I do hope you’re right about the Chinese cars coming though.
🤣🤣🤣
I think most of this prediction is way off.
I don't feel like explaining here, but other than California and maybe NYC, I don't see the majority of this happening. Definitely not within 10 years, and most likely not in many of our lifetimes, with how much consumer pushback there would be.
President Mark Cuban 🤣🤣🤣 Fun Video, love a good hypothetical
Glad you like it!
Lol. Good imagination.
You want cool cars? Look to the past, not to the future.
Dunno, if trends continue, Mack trucks will be personal transport by 2034. I reckon hybrids will dominate the near future. Re our road trains - they operate in the outback where there is almost no traffic & no rail line [yet]. Passing one requires patience, nerves & some skill. You always wait for them to signal it's safe before moving out.
_As a forecaster, I reckon 2034 is too far off off to predict, given all the news/trouble in the US atm. I'm unconvinced Jon [just for a change] but I'll check back in a decade & I hope you are largely correct. =)_
It's always dangerous to predict a future, and I really hesitated on this video. But I thought it would be fun and was thought-provoking for me!
I THINK WE NEED TO ADDRESS SOME PYSCHOLOGICAL & POLITICAL ISSUES ABOUT AMERICA:
* They dont make NEW, SMALL HOUSES IN AMERICA !!! A family of four would be happy to buy an AFFORDABLE, 1200 sq ft Patio (zero lot line) home rather than a "Flat" with shared walls like an Apartment, Town Home, or Mondo Condo.
* The density in urban centers is unacceptable to most US citizens.
* And while Mass Transit WORKS in Europe, in our US heterogeneous environmenta, WOULD IT BE SAFE ?? !! ??
* AMERICANS STILL OPERATE ON ROADS LIKE THE WILD WEST. Crowded to be sure; but, Americans SURROUND THEMSELVES WITH THE SPACE OF BIG VEHICLES (Big Pickups & Big SUVs); in ADDITION THERE ARE KILLER SEMI-TRUCKS & TRAILERS ON THE ROAD.
* In America, if you have it, FLAUNT IT; OR, Buy It On Credit.
* While we may COMPLAIN in the US about Gas Prices, this Country has some of the cheapest Gasoline Prices In THE WORLD. An Opiate provided by the American Political Machine; BUT, also cheap energy makes our existing Economy run better.
* Widespread Rapid & Mass Transit is Quickly & Quietly KILLED In This Country.
*M A R K C U B A N*
Let’s think more positive folks.
Everyone always thinks the future is gonna be a disaster but things end up never changing as much as everyone thinks.
The future is ao bright...
Hmmm...my predictions are quite different (and may be more reflective of 2040)...
Car prices will continue to increase as new technologies will be costly. The average car will cost over $100,000. Self-driving cars will become a reality and Uber-like companies buy heavily into them. In urban areas, most people will choose to stop owning a car and will just rely on a smartphone app to summon a self-driving car to their door and drop them off at their location. City busses are phased out as those on public assistance have self-driving ride credits added to their accounts.
Many homes in the city are being built without driveways or garages since so many people don't own cars. Parking decks and parking lots are mostly empty now and are being converted to other uses.
More and more stretches of interstate are "self-driving cars only." With all cars on those designated interstates driving themselves, average speeds have increased to 100 mph, there are almost no accidents, and cars travel in long, closely-packed, caravans. These caravans cut down on wind resistance and achieve longer ranges for the cars.
Like most predictions about the future you will probably be way off the mark!
Probably. But it'll be fun to look back and see!
Unfortunately, I believe your forecasts are too conservative and optimistic.
I had some others I'd considered, but they were a bit too 'out there'.... and it *is* only 10 years...
Chinese cars manufacturers should expand into the USA market
The future looks very bleak indeed
It's like Europe today, just 10 years behind..😅. I believe the PRC EVs will steamroll the market and most legacy brands will be gone.
@Airpang // So you like Forced labor, IP theft, PRC seeding & steering of their industries, Product / Price dumping; AND WTO CHEATING IN GENERAL ??
@@adrianmonk4440 No, but I still believe they will be successful.
Ill still be driving my 02 Tacoma. With the high prices and lack of quality, i dont see anything getting better. I couldnt be any less interested in electric or hydrogen. Just build me an affordable, reliable, ICE vehicle!
Sounds kinda badish
All the U.S. cars will be the same. No innovation, no sedans, no pony cars. Just EVs and SUVs.
They'll be no more V8s in 2034 unfortunately 😢
(solar panels on every roof and parking lot )
It will take a lot more than that to put an EV in every driveway! =)
Cloudy Cleveland Ohio has entered the chat
@@UncleJoeLITE (batteries are practical - wherever there is electricity you can get a charge )
@@ronhoover5516 (by charging overnight you do your grid a favor )
EXCELLENT PROPHECY.
I AGREE WITH JON, THE LATEST CONTRACT WITH UAW IS UNSUSTAINABLE IN THE LONG RUN. In Japan, High School grads have The Caliber of an 2 year associates degree, in contrast to
to the beer swilling, mediocre, apathetic, portion of rhe UAW. YOU DON'T DESERVE IT.
The only way the UAW survives is if they can bully their way into the import branded plants. GM, Ford and what’s left of Chrysler will continue to move production offshore until there are just a few plants left.
Ahhh, Errr, Uhmm, why is pure Battery Electric Vehicle such a GOOD PHRASE; AND MASS TRANSIT, & HYBRID SUCH BAD PHRASES ???
Just Remember, THERE ARE PLACES IN EUROPE with better solutions. I have been to Hanover, Germany mostly covered by PEDESTRIAN STREET MALLS & "PARKS." You get off work;; Have a beer or two;; Go to the small Bodega near the Train Station;; Buy dinner Groceries;; Get on the correct Rail or Light Rail;; AND GO HOME, sort of. From there you catch a bus, then grab your bicycle or Econobox vehicle, and finish the last leg HOME. OR GOD FORBID, WALK.
easiest future to predict: electric crossovers, electric trucks, electric mustang/camaro/charger + whatever Tesla is selling.
Downtowns is dead ... reason de-population ... majority will live outside and got government paychecks and do what ever they are pleased ... AI run everything ... Job is hobby for humans ...
The 2034 year your described in this video seems like a nightmare. Regulation over regulation, no freedom. I don’t want the future to look like that. We have to vote all those progressiste left leaning politician out.
🙄🙄
Agreed 100%
@@jermainec2462You say “🙄🙄” but he’s got a point. More regulation equals less freedoms and a step closer to communism.
@@jermainec2462 what is your problem? explain your side ! Don't just make a face without an explanation .
@brentkiely657 I get tired of people picking sides ,the whole government. Is trash ... 🗑 People argue on the internet all day long about the left, about the right, about democrats, about republicans, but at the end of the day, all of them are trash ...
you can't keep voting in the same old crusty people in office and expect them to have new ideas, LOL
That's part of the reason why our government can't get anything done. All of this will affect what and how we drive in the future...
this man is just speculating the future, that doesnt mean it's actually gonna happen ...