Is Dubai Real Estate in a Bubble? Warning Signs and Predictions

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  • Опубліковано 21 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 331

  • @MohHus-r7o
    @MohHus-r7o 11 місяців тому +32

    I saw the Dubai boom of 2006 fall of 2009, again boom 2012 fall 2016 and boom again 2021., what it tells that those who have holding power and have patience you will end up in profit there no such place like Dubai. There is a charm in this city attracts you.

    • @Jordan-wg6gg
      @Jordan-wg6gg 7 місяців тому +5

      Yes amazing charm of no history and cheap builds from exploited labour.. lovely!

    • @safetyadvisorspecialist7272
      @safetyadvisorspecialist7272 3 місяці тому

      It’s 2024 and it’s a BOOM baby

  • @RussianPlus
    @RussianPlus 11 місяців тому +16

    Dubai has too much construction going on, and there is no shortage . Real estate agents are trying to sell new projects. Because they get a commission . But once you buy that, it’s really difficult to sell it because there is no shortage of new apartments. Too much construction. Too much supply.

    • @barbarasara4033
      @barbarasara4033 10 місяців тому

      Thank you so much. I never knew it.

    • @alamgirbaig6080
      @alamgirbaig6080 9 місяців тому

      Which country is good for moving and investment.

    • @xhabbisgoated
      @xhabbisgoated 9 місяців тому

      That’s correct it hard to resell the property

    • @יהושערובינשטיין
      @יהושערובינשטיין 7 місяців тому +1

      Depends on which areas!!!

    • @SonniTheDog
      @SonniTheDog 4 місяці тому +2

      Demand vastly outstrips supply and supply is released very carefully. No issues selling properties, all moves very fast. If you don't own a property here then you have no right to even comment on the situation.

  • @Hereticalable
    @Hereticalable 4 місяці тому +8

    I lived there since 2000 - it's up and down like a rollercoaster. People have ZERO long term thinking and extremely high demands for returns.

  • @RomilCPatel
    @RomilCPatel Рік тому +56

    One of the big issues in Dubai is that there is virtually unlimited supply.
    In Hong Kong for example there is a limited amount of land and regulations make it so that builders have to go through a lot to build out more supply. Compare that to Dubai where there is a vast amount of land and little regulatory hurdles stopping builders from building out.

    • @HoDLum
      @HoDLum Рік тому +12

      Exactly!! I never understood how the prices are going up so much where there is so much construction going on. Personally I think this is unsustainable and the bubble will burst hard.

    • @btc1m654
      @btc1m654 Рік тому +9

      Location is scarce. Properties far faraway from the center are extremely cheap whereas properties in the palm or downtown area keep going up

    • @nomadclient4047
      @nomadclient4047 Рік тому +11

      Dangerous to buy in Dubai now, Michael deserves thanks for warning us when other channels just want your money. 💰

    • @coolrunnings5383
      @coolrunnings5383 Рік тому +5

      It also depends on the vicinity of the area … for example, USA has vast amounts of space, but NYC is limited.

    • @niallmcdonagh1093
      @niallmcdonagh1093 Рік тому

      Having lived in the Gulf for 30 years I can tell you that Dubai is a massive Ponzi scheme. Built by slave labour for a nepotistic Islamic elite in an unliveable hot and humid climate...and yet suckers are drawn in every minute...mankind is truly laughable...

  • @masoodrazaq
    @masoodrazaq 8 місяців тому +4

    This is sober analysis based on facts and well grounded skepticism. I have been an investor/owner in Dubai and seen massive swings in supply/demand and prices over several cycles since 2007. If you own off-plan and things go sour, it is a legal quagmire to get your money back or sue the developer for breaches. The fallacies of most analyses are overestimating immigration and demand. Even if there are huge population growth plans in D33, it doesn’t mean that they will materialize. Best bet is to buy ready property at reasonable prices in good locations or scarcity factors such as seaview, central location, with few similar units (small projects) etc. These should hold value and hopefully grow at a reasonable rate.

  • @markuswunsch
    @markuswunsch 10 місяців тому +10

    Another important thing to consider is that a nice home is just that but if you want to do business as well then you should look at the economic infrastructure in Dubai too!
    This said, I know quite a few centimillionaires and billionaires who own property in Dubai and some of them even live there but they all have kept their family offices and startup HQs in other places like NYC, London, SF,... so while rich people are moving there, their businesses often do not and so Dubai is primarily a luxury second home market!
    And no Dubai will not be able to solely survive on just fancy - and in my eyes often tacky - real estate projects and insta models and youtubers....

    • @realestatematedxb
      @realestatematedxb 8 місяців тому +1

      A bubble forms when the Economy is stagnant and real estate prices continue to go up... you're spot on, one cant really analize a bubble purely on supply... like he did here.
      Also, tacky projects are real😂

  • @maamir4
    @maamir4 Рік тому +18

    Hello from Canada. Great Analysis. Exactly the video I was looking for. Honest & objective analysis on Dubai RE market and not a typical FOMO sales video.

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +3

      Appreciate the support! Anything you'd like to see next?

    • @realestatematedxb
      @realestatematedxb 8 місяців тому

      Looking for reasons NOT to buy in Dubai, and you will find them. Look for reasons to buy in Dubai and you will find them.
      He has nothing to gain from making this video and if you buy or not, so I appreciate him as a creator.
      Interesting to see Canadians market share in Dubai is increasing. Must be the 45% tax?
      OMG yes FOMO videos are cringe.

  • @relaxandlivelife7093
    @relaxandlivelife7093 3 місяці тому +2

    Very realistic and no bs video. Im sure a lot of bubbles were burst ! Too bad for them. Some people just don’t accept the reality

  • @MauricioTassara-su4mx
    @MauricioTassara-su4mx 9 місяців тому +2

    Great insightful video. Do you have a similar view on the Abu dhabi TE market ?

  • @VinwapGames
    @VinwapGames Рік тому +8

    Agents tried to sell me the apartment telling he can list it the very next day for 30% more and wait for next buyer because prices will go up for sure within a year. And that's why offplan are selling out within hours of launch. Most of the off plan market is pure speculation and will be the cause of Dubai real estate market correction

  • @Drushen07
    @Drushen07 10 місяців тому +4

    The difference in this market , is that investor don’t use debt as leverage as in western markets. Developers are also very liquid and don’t need sales to fuel development of next phases. This means an investor can hold out much longer to get the price they require for the units. The end user mortgage buyer situation is different limited supply at the moment , increasing rental prices and increase property price. Newer units have much less SQM BUA relative to older complexes but are expensive in the ready market.

    • @Kehua800
      @Kehua800 4 місяці тому

      Only issue with what you're saying is that buyers that are super rich even they 1 day need a return on their investment and traditional they make their money or clean their money by selling to working class. Once the working class has been removed which is happening in Dubai at an alarming rate which nobody is talking about that's the massive crash coming, the working-class salaries have dropped. Then what? rich keep buying properties from each other - you need a working class!

  • @MikeTPDubai
    @MikeTPDubai Рік тому +8

    I'm living through this here in Dubai!!! The bubble is caused by the dirty money being laundered through property, it's that simple. The dirty money doesn't care how much it degrades as long as it's cleaned and can buy other properties over seas. This place is a washing machine!

    • @EricPetersen2922
      @EricPetersen2922 Рік тому +2

      Will the dirty money run out? Nope….

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +4

      There's always been dirty money in Dubai but there hasn't always been a bubble in Dubai. This is more than just dirty money, it's demand that rose in excess of supply and it's speculation layered on top of that

    • @Hayekenshort
      @Hayekenshort 4 місяці тому

      Guess what dirty money is everywhere, and anyhow dirty money still choose the best investement available among thousands of different choices. Dubai attracts everyone, the "dirty"money narrative is just a lousy excuse from the established western economy to keep their monopoly , it won t work.

  • @mh1137
    @mh1137 7 місяців тому +5

    One parameter that one should look at also is the number of families coming to settle and live in Dubai... And currently it's booming ! The number of russian families in particular increased significantly. I am impressed also to see Malls full ! The inflow is massive. I visit Dubai since 10 years now and I have never seen that before ! Lots of people buy to live here now. The current social and political trends in Europe + War tensions + risk of taxation on Deposits in Europe (they work on that...) works in favor of Dubai imho

  • @danyalkay7530
    @danyalkay7530 8 місяців тому +5

    What other city you can leave your doors unlocked or leave your car keys and not get stolen, or get robbed for your watch whilst you're walking home. It's 1 of very few safe city, blows all of Europe and north America out of the market, regarding safety

  • @luigipanza9898
    @luigipanza9898 10 місяців тому +2

    Thanks for these valuable considerations!
    Instead of purchasing properties for flipping, what about considering short-term rentals? This could match a higher demand for travelers in Dubai because of work, tourism, etc.

  • @User1976valid
    @User1976valid Рік тому +4

    Even after property not appreciate… rental cash flow should give good returns in 7/8 years … sell it after on same price. 800k 1bhk should give 60k rent each year. Location close to metro should help on getting rental . Just thought

  • @dejancontent2895
    @dejancontent2895 7 місяців тому +2

    What about Marina, Jbr, Jlt? Are they good places to invest for the longer term due to the rent and limited supply? The market will always go up and down, but I feel those areas will always be popular for tourists with small regard for what is happening with the market at large in Dubai. Also, the supply is limited in those areas, not many free plots left. What are your thoughts?

  • @TheBetterkhan
    @TheBetterkhan 7 місяців тому +8

    this is exactly i am hearing for last 25 years, property prices correction are normal thing everywhere. people from india and pakistan particularly gets benefits anyways as their currencies keep declining on certain pace. more then 200 projects were handed over in 2020/22 and the same point of view was at that time too but dubai is proving everyone wrong every-time.

  • @JulianaKung
    @JulianaKung 9 місяців тому +1

    But what if we factor in the gaming/hospitality giants that are entering Dubai? Would you not consider that would propel demand and prices?
    That was what happened in Macau and real estate prices quadrupled.

  • @DunyadaMisafir
    @DunyadaMisafir Рік тому +4

    When we buy a house in Dubai, we only get a residence and work permit in the United Arab Emirates, right? So we don't get visa-free access to countries where UAE citizens can go without a visa, right?
    For example, when we buy a house in Greece for a golden visa, we not only get a work and residence permit in Greece, but we also buy the right to go to EU member states without a visa.
    Which country would you recommend if we are going to buy a house in order to get the right to go to many countries in the world without a visa, including the European Union?

    • @sophiewanlin8612
      @sophiewanlin8612 Рік тому +1

      I'm no professional, so why not try turkey?

    • @btc1m654
      @btc1m654 Рік тому

      There is talk that the GCC will allow residents to travel with no visa

    • @pures1n
      @pures1n Рік тому

      yea but greece golden visa only lets you go to other schengen countries for 90 days
      but yea UAE residency doesnt give you same travel privileges as a UAE citizen. though UAE is in talks of having visa free access to EU even after ETIAS goes live, even for resident holders. which would be pretty crazy for the russians who dont currently have access to EU, but would get it through dubai residency

    • @dimebagg1
      @dimebagg1 Рік тому +2

      I doubt Europe would allow that as UAE residency holders are a very “multicultural” crowd which I’m sure Europe isn’t too smitten about allowing them in check free.
      I’d love to see a link of dubai contemplating that if you can share. (I’m not disputing it)

    • @peterpeter8217
      @peterpeter8217 Рік тому

      @@dimebagg1 The EU allowing 1 million multicultural refugees check in free every year.....

  • @alexandertraveler510
    @alexandertraveler510 10 місяців тому +2

    Not sure if I agree totally. A lot of supply is in the not expat areas which expat people don’t want to live. Unless there is a big new marina coming I don’t see much increase in high end demand

    • @emmadavis9039
      @emmadavis9039 6 місяців тому

      It's called Dubai Creek Harbor

  • @veronikauae
    @veronikauae 3 місяці тому +2

    I’ve lived here since 2000 .. the market is volatile mainly because vast majority of people here are expats, UAE doesn’t give citizenship to foreigners (except for very rare exceptions) .. so when something happens and people get laid off (2008, Corona ) .. people have to move out of the country unless they find work fast … hence the volatility .. But it’s a great place to invest if you buy in the right time .. and I think this video is correct and it will likely happen what’s described ..

  • @-RBR
    @-RBR Рік тому +10

    The temperature completely kills Dubai for me. I don't get the appeal at all and I can't imagine living there for more than couple of months a year (winter only). Amazing city built on a fucking frying pan.

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +6

      It actually wasn’t that bad for me. I’ve even spent the summer in Dubai. Wasn’t a big deal at all

    • @vimalcurio
      @vimalcurio Рік тому +3

      ​@@OffshoreCitizendid you live inside most of the time?

    • @NadimKaram-NaiiDz
      @NadimKaram-NaiiDz Рік тому

      @RBR....you're a Cardano fan in Dubai? We should connect! See you in the Cardano Summit?

    • @md.fakhrulislam285
      @md.fakhrulislam285 Рік тому

      You realise littlebit late.i avoided only for weather.

    • @alexandertraveler510
      @alexandertraveler510 10 місяців тому

      Crypto guys ?

  • @RomilCPatel
    @RomilCPatel Рік тому +2

    Are you aware of any publicly traded builders or REITs that focus exclusively on Dubai real estate?

  • @darrengrant7762
    @darrengrant7762 10 місяців тому +1

    The transport infrastructure also can't support the housing market growth too at the moment

  • @HoDLum
    @HoDLum Рік тому +11

    This is exactly the video I was hoping to see.

  • @bbrebozo6417
    @bbrebozo6417 Рік тому +3

    Didn’t the sheik also issue a rule on off plan real estate sales to restrict the frequency of suspended projects? A lot of those in Dubai. If I were going to immigrate into Dubai I’d want a visa that isn’t attached to real estate.

  • @MacSaxe
    @MacSaxe Рік тому +14

    corporation tax, associated paperwork hassles and the very real fear of making mistakes in an unforgiving legal framework - plus a nearly guaranteed future income tax on global earnings haven’t yet been priced into property.

    • @notahobbit1
      @notahobbit1 Рік тому +1

      Guaranteed future income tax on global earnings? Yeah that's not happening, that would kill Dubai right off and I'm not sure where you are getting your info from.

    • @MacSaxe
      @MacSaxe Рік тому +6

      @@notahobbit1 people said vat wouldn’t happen, then they said corporation tax wouldn’t happen and if it did it would kill Dubai , then they said it wouldn’t affect freezone companies and if it did it would kill freezone, etc etc.
      A year ago freezone companies were advertising in their literature and websites a guaranteed 50 years free of corporation tax, now that’s all gone, deleted.
      At the same time phrases saying no income tax ever, have become no income tax in the foreseeable future… things change very fast in UAE and it’s impossible to say with any certainty what tomorrow will hold. How long does foreseeable mean?
      One thing however is guaranteed - more tax will come.
      All taxes added up will still be lower than those in high tax jurisdictions and as such UAE will remain a very good place to live due to so many factors beyond low tax - but to believe income tax won’t come ever is more a case of wishful thinking than sound tax planning

    • @dimebagg1
      @dimebagg1 Рік тому

      They don’t need the tax money to the extent you’re describing especially as the trade off is pushing away investments and capital inflows as well as their no tax monicker

    • @dimebagg1
      @dimebagg1 Рік тому

      @@MacSaxethough you are very correct on all you stated :)

  • @mehrdaddavani3532
    @mehrdaddavani3532 Рік тому +3

    if u buy the best location and best tower its very good, u must know where to buy

    • @alexsorov1958
      @alexsorov1958 10 місяців тому

      Any suggestions ❤ where to buy?

  • @JamesDan-s5e
    @JamesDan-s5e Місяць тому

    Great video, it's simple supply and demand, there is a huge amount of supply which is outpacing the demand, prices will dip in 26.

  • @ruhelmiah2133
    @ruhelmiah2133 11 місяців тому +2

    What if u want to buy to do air bnb?

  • @khalidumar3834
    @khalidumar3834 11 місяців тому +2

    Great insightful video, very hard to find such information, internet is full of real estate agents who always say its a good time to buy

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  11 місяців тому

      Thanks! Always happy to provide authentic opinions and advice. What are your thought on the topic?

  • @realestatematedxb
    @realestatematedxb 8 місяців тому +1

    You find what you look for.
    Few interesting takes on the information you wanted to share.
    Objective or Subjective.
    There's an interesting time ahead for sure, and what if nothing you said transpires, what if this market is in its infantsy stage. What if the population actually doubles...
    I appreciate transparency in content and you did your best here. Making folks aware of possibilities, but what about making people aware of the opportunities as well...

  • @amirsnags8663
    @amirsnags8663 9 місяців тому

    What properties are the best to purchase for personal use in terms of value for money?
    Also is there a hedge against real estate bubble in dubia?

  • @TomJacksonDXB
    @TomJacksonDXB Рік тому +7

    Over 15,000 registered agents now in Dubai, with unregistered agents at least double this...
    There are going to be a lot of investors who buy into particular areas where lots of supply is coming onto the market and they will get burnt.
    However, 69% of supply by 2028 is in the apartment sector. Considering Dubai's expat population is relatively young, these people will demand Townhouses / Villas as they look to start families. So there are still good opportunities out there especially in the secondary market where can purchase Townhouses at a relatively cheap prices in locations like Townsquare or Mira.
    There are still opportunities out there, but, you need to pick the location and product very carefully. Very informative video and it will be interesting to see how it plays out!

    • @trendtradertrender4328
      @trendtradertrender4328 Рік тому +1

      There is nothing wrong with Townsquare, Mira or even Arabian Ranches 3, Villanova. The prices for Townhouses are almost equally there , there might be some 5-6% difference in prices but with your 2028 projection, and I think you are right, this areas will increase further, especially in Townhouse / Villa Segment. For apartments I am not that optimistic yet

    • @TomJacksonDXB
      @TomJacksonDXB Рік тому

      ​@@trendtradertrender4328 Exactly, quite a few Townhouses / villas are pretty fairly valued and would unlikely see a large fall in capital values and will still achieve a steady rental income. Bullish on the prices long-term :)

    • @ac_utd6252
      @ac_utd6252 Рік тому

      100% agree on villas and townhouses which is the reason I bought in Damac Hills 2 as a steady investment, unique area which is extremely green, no risk of oversupply, rents have increased over 30%, people who live there love the charming family nature of the community, already landscaped and many parts built so can get return quicker and they are building 6 new roads from the community which will make getting to any part of Dubai quick in less than half an hour with no traffic (which is a big issue in Dubai)

  • @kk3528
    @kk3528 Рік тому +9

    Dubai real estate is super super bubble and will fall like a knife.the price of property is super hyped through marketing firms and paid gurus who do lot of marketing leading to this bubble

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому

      What are your predictions?

    • @mariannybejarano5340
      @mariannybejarano5340 10 місяців тому

      Yes to even make the situation worst, they are hyping with information like the new casino , new tallest building etc so people get fooled into the off plan purchases

  • @naeembahadur6480
    @naeembahadur6480 Рік тому +13

    Absolutely agreed with Micheal about over supply market. But Dubai market is unpredictable, and comparing UAE within the Middle East is paradise for end the users and investors. I’m living in Dubai over 30 years, I believe the easiest and smooth transection if can happen anywhere in the world that is Dubai. I would suggest avoid buying property through bank mortgage and buy unique location will never disappoint you. 😊

    • @dinofabrizzi2116
      @dinofabrizzi2116 Рік тому

      Hi naeem.. I am an italian investor... So you've been living in Dubai forse such a longtime...Great.. Can i send you an email top exchange infos ? Thank you !

    • @neilbenji
      @neilbenji 11 місяців тому

      @@dinofabrizzi2116 Hi, I can probably be of a great help for you in this regards.

    • @alexsorov1958
      @alexsorov1958 10 місяців тому

      Hi, what do you mean by unique location ? Can you give example as a person that lives there

    • @mehsanm
      @mehsanm 7 місяців тому

      Barari

  • @Ramboisme
    @Ramboisme 6 місяців тому

    Where can I find a report on upcoming luxury residences ? I think you mentioned 80+ projects?

  • @zubinwarden7888
    @zubinwarden7888 Рік тому +1

    What’s the name of the crypto OTC in SINGAPORE

  • @luramb4
    @luramb4 10 місяців тому +1

    Fully agree, developers and agents are creating FOMO by promising generous capital gains for 2026-2027, but the large number of properties available by that time suggest the opposite. That feels like the end of an accumulation phase to me and I think prices will start dropping as supply will overtake demand.

  • @pabloenrique810
    @pabloenrique810 2 місяці тому

    Good talking we need some images when you talk for ppl we don't there , tks

  • @hmubtakir
    @hmubtakir Рік тому +2

    Thank you for a realistic assessment and presentation so that those interested in investment can make informed decisions as the bubble is due in the market

  • @Noonelson
    @Noonelson Рік тому +2

    Not sure where youre comparing Canadian rent? Toronto is more expensive than Dubai

    • @SIrfan-qj9oq
      @SIrfan-qj9oq Рік тому

      toronto and canadah is a shit hole

  • @fritzmetzger22
    @fritzmetzger22 Рік тому +4

    Also let's remember the net yield in Dubai is around 4-5%, lower than what you can get on treasuries risk-free

    • @dimebagg1
      @dimebagg1 Рік тому +4

      Rent ROI is 8-10 percent. Excellent. if that’s what you meant by yield.

    • @straightshootah7550
      @straightshootah7550 Рік тому

      ​@@dimebagg1where?? marina and bb around 5-6%

    • @JudgeDredd888
      @JudgeDredd888 Рік тому

      @@dimebagg1Maybe international city if you rent beds its 10%

    • @abhaykaul1210
      @abhaykaul1210 11 місяців тому

      marina is 8-9% if you get a good distress deal.

  • @brianpereira7483
    @brianpereira7483 Рік тому +7

    The whole world has been in this bubble but go where its undervalued as much as possible or rent and wait till the washout begins

  • @td97hde
    @td97hde 11 місяців тому +1

    During the last property boom in Dubai, many of the developers went bust and ran away from Dubai due to price and some even stopped developing for 10+ years to get back during the recent years to finish the property. People have a short memory and we will see the same again as you drive to Palm there is an unfinished building that the developer left in 2009 and it is so damaged that the government has been ordered to demolish it people who invested in that property never got their money back and lost there investment.
    the said the same for property use will go up for EXPO 202X and which did not happend and the current project does not support the usage which will crash the property market again.

  • @petersmith2040
    @petersmith2040 10 місяців тому +1

    The best time to buy RE in Dubai is when there’s a market crash and a lot of speculators are panicking. You can probably get a lifestyle 5-star hotel residence unit for a song.

    • @MeMe-wz5hv
      @MeMe-wz5hv 7 місяців тому +1

      No shit Sherlock

  • @nnuae
    @nnuae Рік тому +5

    I can't fathom why an offplan unit would cost double what already available ones are selling for (like the "cheap" 25m AED villas I'm spammed with for Palm Jebel Ali / apartments in Bugatti Tower / Cavalli Tower), but that's the Dubai market for you, I suspect a lot of the buyers shop online and don't even visit the place and don't dive deep into what's going on.
    Then a lot of people are buying as an easy way to get crypto winnings into traditional assets without the hassle from the banks, and are perfectly willing to lose 10-ish percent to have that happen, but even so, the off plan market is a joke.
    I guess places like the Marina where there's constant demand, high yields on short-term rentals and no new supply will maintain their prices better than the rest of the city, but some of the newer neighbourhoods could see their prices cut in half. Still, people need to be cautious because of the poor construction quality on perhaps half the units there.
    Business Bay is getting extremely overpopulated, not to mention the far off areas like JVC.

    • @alexandertraveler510
      @alexandertraveler510 10 місяців тому

      How do you know which buildings are good quality?

    • @patrickjean-philippe7679
      @patrickjean-philippe7679 8 місяців тому

      I agree on the poor building quality which this far put me off buying anything.

  • @TheGreaterBenefic
    @TheGreaterBenefic 10 місяців тому +1

    As a person who survived the 2007/2008 crash... I am convinced that this time around the crash is going to be waaay worse. Its not the right time to buy for sure.

    • @samsadeniz
      @samsadeniz 10 місяців тому +2

      Same goes for stocks

  • @alexandertraveler510
    @alexandertraveler510 10 місяців тому +1

    Foreigners can’t buy in most areas, including the center. The problem is that the touristic places are also the nice places so you don’t have a local feel. No one really wants to go to even jvc

  • @pak74x
    @pak74x Рік тому +2

    Address Downtown studio now seeling for 1.8mil AED was offered below 1mil AED offplan some 17 (+-) years ago. That gives you about 3-4% yearly appreciation longterm with big swings.

  • @saintstyle
    @saintstyle Рік тому +2

    Hey Michael, thanks for the long awaited video! Would love to hear your opinion about the war in Israel in regards of its possible affect on UAE? 😢

    • @AhmadouXodia
      @AhmadouXodia 10 місяців тому

      Rich Palestinians might come. Poor not allowed in dubai

  • @Teatime9800
    @Teatime9800 Рік тому +2

    18.6 year cycle in play from 2026...it's amazing how property cycle works

  • @ThomasTomiczek
    @ThomasTomiczek 4 місяці тому +1

    I am with you on the bubble - but the AED is tied to the USD and the USD is on the path to hyperinflation - there is no bubble that can pop that will neutralize a 50% drop in USD value. That said, there are real questions about the viability of UAE property in the next 20 years - mostly because a LOT of people, and this includes professionals with good earning, are going to lose their jobs to AI and their "gloves" (Robots controlled by AI). This includes workers, but it goes up to professionals and people running businesses that serve those. Dubai is not cheap - who loses their job will move out. If that starts being a LOT of people, this will impact the real estate market.

  • @smm24hpanel9
    @smm24hpanel9 9 місяців тому +1

    Unfortunately the new 9% tax rules will not improve the prices i heard of lott people got scared from this new law.

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  9 місяців тому

      Where do you see things going from here?

  • @User-sl4kg
    @User-sl4kg 7 місяців тому +2

    They started to sell off plan properties at the malls as if they were selling an iphone cover. Sick

  • @andrescv2665
    @andrescv2665 Рік тому +5

    700k US dollars for a condo of 800 ft, no thanks, only to be used for 3 months bc the weather is too hot

    • @pures1n
      @pures1n Рік тому +1

      agreed lol but them tax benefits though, if u got a lot of money coming in it could be worth it
      3 months in great winter weather and then asia/eu 6-7 hour flight away for the rest of the year sounds pretty ideal to me.

    • @samuliceo
      @samuliceo Рік тому

      Dubai has good weather for 8 months per year.

    • @TheNjd1995
      @TheNjd1995 9 місяців тому

      Rent for 9% and up ROI

    • @laibayusra4456
      @laibayusra4456 2 місяці тому

      Depend which area you are investing …

  • @ussamaalkaissi2994
    @ussamaalkaissi2994 11 місяців тому

    Informative video. So you believe, we should postpone buying till 2025 when the market dips?

  • @SuperMarioUno
    @SuperMarioUno 9 місяців тому

    I’m coming to Dubai for a new job in July 24. I’m looking for a one or 2 bed unit. I expect to stay in Dubai 5 years. Should I be renting in the first year and buying in the second year? What’s the best scenario? I want to live as “rent free” as possible, and be able to at least rent out the property if I leave Dubai or sell it with some capital appreciation. From this discussion, it seems capital appreciation maybe be a capital depreciation in 2027? Any ideas ?

    • @randomuser6306
      @randomuser6306 5 місяців тому

      What did you end up doing? I think your best bet is to buy a cheaper unit, easier to rent out and less exposed to the big swings. Long term Dubai rental is a good return.

  • @ADAM-fy8ht
    @ADAM-fy8ht 8 місяців тому

    I love ❤️ it , your comments were very sincere. 👍

  • @mohammedusman4970
    @mohammedusman4970 9 місяців тому

    From an end user point and reading the news frequently and following dxb RE analysis like this, I'm feeling that prices will go down in secondary market in 2026 and I think that will be best time for an end user to buy a property through bank mortgage or cash in the secondaey market. Emaar and Damac are the top developers for retaining the property value.

  • @michaelionita
    @michaelionita Рік тому +1

    Finally an honest video about this topic. Appreciate that thank you 🙏

  • @mrgreen1633
    @mrgreen1633 8 місяців тому +1

    I agree.I see a big downturn after 2025. I see too many built and adverts on Dubai which I did not see in 2023.All indicates bargains in 2-4 years

  • @nomadclient4047
    @nomadclient4047 Рік тому +7

    Thanks Michael for the warning that you dont get on other channels. I sure wish I hired you instead.

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +2

      Happy to be of service :)
      Feel free to reach out in case you need any assistance in the future

    • @Unhappy_Nomad_Client
      @Unhappy_Nomad_Client Рік тому +2

      How are you? It's been awhile. I am struggling to recover all the lost time and money wasted on NC.

  • @OXboxy
    @OXboxy 9 місяців тому

    Very interesting video, thanks.
    Regarding the statistics that you are mentioning, that there will be up to 1mn new units added to the market by 2030 - could you please kindly share the source of that?
    I was able to find only this “The total number of housing units in Dubai is expected to reach one 1mn before the end of this decade”, which means that by 2030 the total number of units will reach 1mn vs. your statement that extra 1mn is coming to the market.
    Thanks.

    • @OXboxy
      @OXboxy 9 місяців тому

      Also in the video you are saying that it is hard to imagine how Dubai population could double in the next 7 years.
      Actually, as was mentioned in Dubai Economic Agenda ‘D33’, the emirate aims to double its GDP by 2033, which will result in a demand for human resources. The population by this stage is expected to approach six million, up from 3.5 million today, with the Dubai Urban Master Plan 2040 taking this number to 7.8 million a few years later.
      So the prospect for the population to double is actually not that impossible.

  • @Needisupply
    @Needisupply Рік тому +1

    That is true alot of people who were in the banking sector left earlier this year and went to Australia... Things will change rapidly.

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому

      How do you see things changing?

    • @Needisupply
      @Needisupply Рік тому

      The economy is changing fast, wars are making things go in the negative every where . Even in USA our economy is in a tail spin...@@OffshoreCitizen

    • @aths4u
      @aths4u Рік тому +1

      Why left

  • @DianaStavrou
    @DianaStavrou 10 місяців тому

    What if you live here so buying vs wasting time to rent
    Also what about demand from abroad (not just the resident population )

  • @GordonGekko98
    @GordonGekko98 Рік тому +5

    I want to move to Dubai in a few years so I’m hoping by 2025 the market takes a dip and I can get the golden visa cheap

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому

      Feel free to reach out in case you need any assistance :)

    • @umairiqbal8747
      @umairiqbal8747 Рік тому

      how much one need to invest for Golden visa @@OffshoreCitizen

    • @perditafavour5139
      @perditafavour5139 10 місяців тому

      ​@@OffshoreCitizenthank you fortisgret inside how can I reach out to you please 🙏

  • @rupjolly
    @rupjolly Рік тому +2

    Good video! You laid it all out really well...

  • @Mymi12-r8w
    @Mymi12-r8w Рік тому +1

    I bought a 2 bedroom townhome pre launch all cash (196kusd ) at a a”supposed 50 % discount” from the retail price but handover is in 4 years. I planned to move to Dubai in 2027 ‘28 with my family but now I’m unsure that will do that .after watching you, I may end up selling it in one to 1 /12 yers and get out before prices come down . You are right , if you end up living in it it’s ok, what about to just renting it for a few years then sell it when the market goes up again in 2030s. ?

    • @MohHus-r7o
      @MohHus-r7o 11 місяців тому

      I will help you selling, Am a 15yr experience agent

    • @Masa-gh9mf
      @Masa-gh9mf 8 місяців тому +1

      That certain developer you bought your property from will delay in handover as they usually do.

  • @abdulwahabkayani9607
    @abdulwahabkayani9607 9 місяців тому +7

    US and Canada don't provide the security that dubai does and the lifestyle.

  • @ac_utd6252
    @ac_utd6252 Рік тому

    Best value to look at in Dubai is on villas and townhouses which is the reason I bought in Damac Hills 2 as a steady investment, unique area which is extremely green, no risk of oversupply, rents have increased over 30%, people who live there love the charming family nature of the community, already landscaped and many parts built so can get return quicker and they are building 6 new roads from the community which will make getting to any part of Dubai quick in less than half an hour with no traffic (which is a big issue in Dubai)

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +3

      It was a great buy but the past is not the future lots of competition coming up it won't continue appreciating at those rates

    • @landoincu5321
      @landoincu5321 11 місяців тому

      @@OffshoreCitizenthat rate of appreciation is been registered everywhere in Dubai in mean i can see that increase in marina jbr jlt too both in rent and sales this in the last 3 years

    • @alexandertraveler510
      @alexandertraveler510 10 місяців тому +1

      It’s too dry there inland. Not a good place to live

  • @MultiHeywatsup
    @MultiHeywatsup Місяць тому

    can we get a followup after one year

  • @samfweil
    @samfweil 8 місяців тому +1

    Finally an honest answer! Appreciate it

  • @jenniferbarnea3103
    @jenniferbarnea3103 9 місяців тому

    Hi, can yo make a video 📹 taking about who are the biggest construction 🚧 companies in Dubai?

    • @xhabbisgoated
      @xhabbisgoated 9 місяців тому

      Emaar
      Damac
      Ellington
      Danube
      Binghatti
      Al wasl
      Nakheel

  • @aliasgarkapadia-c7b
    @aliasgarkapadia-c7b 3 місяці тому

    can anyone advice me their honest reviews on emaar south investment? if i think long term (atleast 3-4years), is the capital appreciation obvious? any negatives?

    • @User50Ft
      @User50Ft 2 місяці тому

      It's a bubble, especially off plan market... If you want to really invest in dubai for the long term, go for something ready.

  • @piusamulraj8358
    @piusamulraj8358 7 місяців тому

    excellent , when all projects come together even rentals will go down , over supply.

  • @ccccc9939
    @ccccc9939 8 місяців тому

    I think buying to live and if you are planning to keep property for a long time is still a good idea. Not necessarily better then European cities but dubai does have a lot of tax breaks and getting a golden visa if you can is good security. I don’t think i would solely invest in dubai as buy to let market if that was an option - purely because at one point if the number of people moving to dubai drops, they will have a massive influx of new build homes empty and it will drive all the pricing down

  • @dimitril1950
    @dimitril1950 Рік тому +4

    agree with almost all points. I went to Dubai in May and found out it's just too late to enter the RE market, while my friends got me insides from their relatives working for 10y+ in EMAAR and DAMAC. Nowadays, you can find just a few interesting markets, and the rest will face the correction in '24-27.

    • @beingme4420
      @beingme4420 11 місяців тому

      What do you mean by correction? Thanks

    • @jebeno321
      @jebeno321 11 місяців тому

      Real talk.
      Real estate is on a downturn in the next year. Better to wait for a better risk-reward opportunity after volume drops dead and commercial RE tanks.

  • @WallStreetIceCream
    @WallStreetIceCream Рік тому +3

    still better option than California saftey and cost

  • @robro8
    @robro8 11 місяців тому +2

    this was such a nice, smart, intuitive explanation of how to evaluate things like this from a macro lens. thank you.

  • @sairon63
    @sairon63 9 місяців тому

    Based on UBS there is no Bubble in Dubai and it think the only way to find some non-educated clients for opening up their off-shore by your company is to tell lie to them, maybe you can increase your chase to survive among many big company formation players in the region. Good Luck.

  • @hamzaallsalem3057
    @hamzaallsalem3057 Місяць тому

    I respect your opinion although i don’t know from where did you get your facts and information. There are many points i can discuss but i will mention 3 important points.
    1- from those 400 units in each building there are bad units and great units the great ones are around 10% which will be 40 desired units for home owners or tenants. Your math for flipping should cover those 10% only not the blocked view ones or low floors ones
    2- you mentioned in your video about one sector which is Real Estate but there are many sectors are booming as well. Dubai Government is so strategic they dont depend on 1 Sector like other countries. When they say we are 1st City in the world means they are 1st in all sectors
    3-You didnt mention also how the government is protecting your money and how much the government is engaged in all investments through Escrow accounts, Technologies, ease of transfer between Buyers and sellers and So On.
    Again with all do respect to your opinion but you should cover all corners before giving a judgement.
    Best Regards
    Hamza

  • @sairon63
    @sairon63 9 місяців тому +1

    Some people have very negative fictitious view and opinion about everything because they left their home country and they thought like they might have more privilege than others if they come to the UAE and then they faced with the reality, keep in mind that some people are scaring other people about something they are going to do alone to remove the competition and if it was a bad place to live or do a business, these people were the first ones who closed down their businesses and left it there not sitting in Dubai and earning money they couldn't earn in their first world country.

  • @PriyaMani-hq2tb
    @PriyaMani-hq2tb 7 місяців тому

    There is a shortage of villas and townhouses and therefore investors will always want to buy villas as opposed to apartments.

  • @ridbuzz
    @ridbuzz Рік тому +2

    It's 2008 all over again! People never learn, and their greed always gets them where it hurts most!

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому

      I wouldn't say it's 2008. Some markets are definitely fragile

  • @_FredCo
    @_FredCo 7 місяців тому +1

    Very interesting point of view.

  • @melsenbabe
    @melsenbabe Рік тому +3

    Thank you for the super interesting and candid video Michael! As I'm sure you are aware, the exact dynamics you describe in the pre-construction market are currently unfolding in Canada. The major difference between Canada and the UAE is that in the case of the latter, the "collateral" of their human quantitative easing program is of much more pristine quality. I hate talking about human being in those terms, but that is exactly how Fin Mins are designing and implementing policies. Would you say some/most recent eastern European buyers are likely to hold on to their properties in the UAE as winter dachas after the current turmoil at home subsides? That wouldn't surprise me, but I'd appreciate your on-the-ground take. At any rate, it seems like the glut of supply you are indicating will adversely affect the local real estate market as an investment vehicle.

  • @Azraf14
    @Azraf14 10 місяців тому +1

    @offshore citizen, apparently the Chinese are entering dubai and soon will be swarming in. And when they come in, the population can double in less than 7 years. These new casino projects in Dubai among other factors are drawing them in. I have a feeling the unlikely continued price hike you mentioned in the video, will indeed happen

  • @lliamjurdom9505
    @lliamjurdom9505 Рік тому +1

    Yes all property is a bubble simple as that .... soon to be displaced by other alternatives that you cannot see right now - but they are coming ...

    • @tw9419
      @tw9419 Рік тому +1

      Which alternatives?

    • @PENTHOUZZE
      @PENTHOUZZE Рік тому

      live in the pod?

    • @aths4u
      @aths4u Рік тому

      @@PENTHOUZZElol

  • @speedfreak9717
    @speedfreak9717 Рік тому

    Great video ! Good to see you again

  • @gurtejduggal7218
    @gurtejduggal7218 11 місяців тому +7

    A place like Dubai where the government talks about 10 year and 20 year plans, as well as execution of these plans with fearless motive to build something great, there is no stopping this market. Yes it will be at top at some point,but not before 2030. So go for it ❤

    • @greveeen
      @greveeen 10 місяців тому

      I believe this too

  • @brp361
    @brp361 Рік тому +40

    Not a bubble...a superbubble.

    • @nomadclient4047
      @nomadclient4047 Рік тому +4

      Right on

    • @md.fakhrulislam285
      @md.fakhrulislam285 Рік тому +1

      Ultra Super bubble.

    • @abidshah1940
      @abidshah1940 9 місяців тому +12

      Dubai is best place to live in the world. For all not for just Muslims. Cheap fuel, no taxes, cheap labour, easy connectivity accross the globe as living in the centre of the world, epic security and safety, booming business, getting lush green day by day, artificial clouds for comfort and rain occasionally, best food, excellent and cheap transport, availability of all state of the art projects for tourists, shopping heaven, consistency of government, no political turmoil or chaos, strong currency, yet cheap property prices than shitty London, rain Goddess Manchester, pocket picker Barcelona, ridiculously expensive Tokyo, high crime rated Newyork, racist Sydney, islamophophobic Paris, an Army cantt Berlin, slummy , radicalised & pollutic India....

    • @FirstnameLastname-gy4bz
      @FirstnameLastname-gy4bz 7 місяців тому +1

      Except housing bubbles are never to burst anymore. Look at Canada

    • @neonomad1939
      @neonomad1939 6 місяців тому

      ​@@abidshah1940 Tokyo isn't expensive anymore. You need to update.

  • @ComfortNanaYaaSerwah
    @ComfortNanaYaaSerwah 9 місяців тому

    great info. thank you

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  9 місяців тому

      Always a pleasure!
      Anything you'd like to see next?

  • @msmsa520
    @msmsa520 Рік тому

    I think the RE market in dubai will start correction by Q2 2024.
    There are talks of introducing new rules regarding RE regulations by 2024 summer. New laws = market stagnation.
    Better watch out for stuff like that.

  • @Neuroman
    @Neuroman Рік тому +5

    Interesting. I had to leave Dubai due to air pollution triggering my asthma.

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +1

      Sorry to hear that! :(

    • @landoincu5321
      @landoincu5321 11 місяців тому +1

      Well that is another issue to fix there in Dubai together with water running through the pipes which in my opinion should be filtered before enter in contact with skin.
      And nobody say nothing about it..The problem with dubai is also that u won’t ever have a democratic debate about those issues as who rule the city doesn’t absolutely want to show the world those big issues. Even the little crimes happening within the city are well obscured by any news because that may undermine the city reputation of safe place. This way won’t support the organic growth and improvement of the city community

  • @bbrebozo6417
    @bbrebozo6417 Рік тому

    The other factor is the Persian vs Arab thing. The former are just across the gulf and the did lob missiles into the kingdom next door. They go to Dubai too and are probably not going to do something like that to the UAE, but the UAE is Arab (the middle A). And there’s an ongoing war on the Arabian peninsula.

  • @anandhu_sekhar733
    @anandhu_sekhar733 4 місяці тому

    70% of the residential properties are empty due to high rent. You will get the same in manhattan for much lesser. Also the recent flood and extreme climate making dubai worst place to live

  • @rundns
    @rundns Рік тому +3

    Less than 400k UHNW in the world. How many of them want to live in Dubai?? How many people can afford $100m penthouses. Probably less than 10k people in the world. Do they want to invest that much money in a place that is next to a geopolitical disaster zone? I’d say not! When this bubble bursts it will be uglyy

    • @OffshoreCitizen
      @OffshoreCitizen  Рік тому +5

      You’re right, it’s all about the numbers.
      1. How many people can afford it?
      2. Of those who can afford how many will actually buy that particular project?
      In the end we come to conclusion that there’s more supply than demand

  • @RideAsil
    @RideAsil Рік тому

    Thank you for your video 👍👍