Russia is running out of soldiers
Вставка
- Опубліковано 2 лип 2024
- Russia will have a manpower shortage unless Putin orders another wave of mobilization. In this video I look at some of the numbers and discuss what happened to the soldiers that Russia mobilized in the fall.
0:00 Intro
0:15 Phase 1
1:08 Phase 2
2:34 How long will 300,000 soldiers last?
2:56 Problem with numbers
3:32 Numbers from Ukraine
5:35 Numbers from Mediazona
7:16 Comparison to Afghanistan
8:04 Wounded and prisoners
8:43 Estimating casualties
9:38 Phase 3
10:54 Ukrainian casualties
Follow me on Mastodon: @anderspuck@krigskunst.social
Someone on another channel mentioned something about Russia’s materiel that I think also applies to it’s personnel: Nations don’t usually lose wars because they suddenly “run out” of something. They become “supply constrained” so they can’t get enough ammo, food or troops to the front at a rate needed to keep advancing or even defend what they have taken. They never run out completely in an absolute sense, but they are still undone by shortages.
It’s all very well to count up tanks and shells that you could potentially repair or restore and people you can mobilize but training people (even by mobik standards) equipping them and getting those tanks ready to go takes a lot of money, manpower and time. Russia has been squandering all those things since this started.
Russian war fighting doctrine is why the expended 20,000 to 60,000 shells/day from March 22 thru August 22. Then after that only expended 10,000 to 15,000 shells/day after that. What changed? Plus they have not have any significant land gains since September 22, only huge land losses. Why? Something changed. Less ammo and manpower?
Haven't you heard or seen the violent war Israel has and still raging on innocent and unarmed Palestinians and Ukrainians??, Or you're just a hypocrite who is blind to Israel's fascist agenda??
or logistics win wars...great point
@@davidarchibald50
As long as US, Israel, NATO (North Atlantic Terrorist Organisation) exist, the world will not be peaceful. Russia should remain vigilant.
So realistically, who would have won this war without a 'constant' supply of more and more weapons and ammo from The West, and who would have won very quickly using their OWN resources? Do you seriously think a divided Europe and US can keep this shit up against a determined and fully justified, utterly provoked and pissed off Russia with a ton of resources and cannon fodder?
--
You are just another delusional Useful Idiot US lackey fuelling the bankruptcy and ruiniation of Russia, Europe, The UK and of course UKRAINE.. There is no way Russia will or SHOULD stop until either NATO agrees never to expand into Ukraine or Russia has partitioned Ukraine from the Ukraine, Belarus, Russian border join point in the North to Transnistria in the South.
--
If you don't stand up to The US they'll bleed you dry and financially rape you to death. Russia already experienced this under the Western Muppet Yeltzin, and now The Ukraine is under Zelensky,
Just passing by to have a LoL. 😅😅😅
ukraine mobilize 20k-30k ppl every month and that is why they have enough ppl in units and even form new brigades.
Please keep your lectures coming. I value your perspective a lot.
Konstantin from Inside Russia (Ironic name since he's now in Usbekistan) has said that among his other russian refugee friends who fled the war, a lot of their relatives and friends are still being mobiilized. The mobilization didn't end, it seems to keep going, but silently so that the men and women aren't too worried about it.
I think that is a real important point. Why trust the Russians on the number of mobilized and that it has ended?
@@Jakob_DK According to him and a few others, the President of Russia has to officially declare the Mobilization to be over and sign a document that it has ended, otherwise it continues. Putin was asked by a reporter a few months back if he would sign it, but Putin just replied that its not necessary.
It didn't end, but they need to mobilize something on the scale of 25-40 thousands men per month, and they've been mobilizing something on the scale of 5-10 thousands per month.
@@jaazz90But why are there videos of forced conscription from ukraine and not Russia? Does not make any sense.
Thanks for another very informative video, I always look forward to seeing your new content 👍
I love watching these videos, keep bringing us great stuff!
Excellent as always. Thank you
Well done Anders! Thank you.
I'm glad to see you amongst the viewership, Vlad. I hope you're well.
Thanks, Vlad. :-)
Wonderful to see you here, Vlad! Bless and get well. Two of my favorite 'providers'.
Don’t forget that lot of Russia dead are buried in the battle field or are Lost in the battle field blown to smithereens. And many are unrecoverable and unidentifiable. It happens in wars.
That's MiA category
Another propagandist 😂😂
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 just like you Russian troll.😂😂😂😝😝😜
For western estimate to be anywhere close to accurate, that would have to be the case for 95% of Russian casualties. If you believe that, you’ll probably believe anything to be honest….
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 lol you actually think they are recovering bodies, sad.
Thanks for the update
This aged like fine milk
Seeing as recruits are being sought from Africa and India, it sure did.
Once again, an excellent summary, and on the mark. Thank you.
Always an objective analysis of this unfortunate war. I wish Mr. Puck Nielsen would upload more frequently but he does have a rather important day job.
This guy is a joke...for evidence, check out my recent message.
This guy literally works for a NATO-affiliated think tank.
That's "objective" to you?
@@td6460 Hi TD, what in this video would you point out as biased?
@@bobvulture6547 Saying a nation of 135 million people is running out of manpower is a ludicrous cope. Ukraine has been taking similar, probably higher losses with a population a fraction of Russia's. How about focus on trying to save Ukraine instead of coming up with nonsense about Russian manpower.
@@td6460
Yes, because all of those people are men of the right age with sufficient training and materiel who are willing to lay down their lives in a war that Putin initiated for no good reason whatsoever.
Sure.
Keep 'em coming, Puckles! I know you're a busy man but yours are among the best of the various commentator updates.
Another great video!
Another brilliant and very clear analysis. Thanks so much!
Insightful and sober analysis from Mr Puck Nielson.
We need more of this on UA-cam instead of all the clickbait.
Go watch Perun
We already have too much propaganda. A country that now has about 20million people under its control has no manpower shortage but the enemy that has 200 million has shortages? Wake up! All this propaganda is just to justify more resources poured down a sink hole. You want insight? Go to Col Doug Macgreggor to find out what is going on.
Niel-SEN, not Niel-SON, please. That would make him a Swede, something Danes don't like AT ALL! Thank you, and have a fine day.
Insightful?, Sober? His so-called "analysis" is ridiculously, fatally flawed. Check my comment for details...if you're interested and open-minded.
@@jamesnation9889 boo hoo hoo I am jealous
Excellent video! I look forward to your next one!
Once again, a very solid and well-reasoned argument. 👍
Clear as a bell as always thank you Anders
Excellent, as always. Thank you.
Always informative! TY
Thx Anders! Alleays love your analisys!
Happy Good Friday! You are doing great work!
Certainly a very important point at the very end: Ukraine is constantly mobilising, not in waves like RF. That also has the advantage of being able to constantly train and equip the new manpower.
It absolutely is in waves, 7 in fact since feb 24th.
@@nihluxler1890 Ok, thanks. To clarify - I meant continuing waves, as opposed to the one big wave in RF.
Man power is good and all but you still need supplies and training in order to make them effective.
Imagine being a software engineer or janitor getting shipped off to England for a 5 week training course, there's no way you'll be as effective as someone with 6 months+ of experience.
Not only that but you're going off fighting with a dwindling supply of equipment against an army that has a 10 to 1 artillery advantage.
RIP logic... keep going NAFO bois
They are just dying, you can call it whatever you want...
Until the last Ukranian!!
NATO doesn't care about how they die, only care about how many russians kill, don't forget that.
USA don't care about human life, just how to kill its enemy, they used Ukrania for its own benefits as always do.
Maybe you can understand it better if i call it by the name USA like to use.
This is just a PROXY WAR!
I think I'll learn a lot listening to you, Sir and I look forward to more, Thank you!
Excellent presentation, thank you for your insight! I really enjoy your videos and I consider them to be an accurate and balanced presentation of the facts.
I think it's a worthwhile point as you made it. Our impression here in Ukraine is that losses are not small, but that there's no real political (or even economic) reason not to mobilize more. The limitation here is more hardware than personnel. I have the feeling that while Ukrainian numbers have stagnated, we're going to have a better trained force (with the exception of the air force). Without the quantity of heavy vehicles and guns, there isn't much need for the quantity of manpower.
The value of what might be called crummy or poorly-equipped troops should not be underestimated. These troops can be hold the line in quiet sectors to free up better troops for important battles. As units in being, and as threats only, they can tie down enemy troops. In the last resort they can also fight, using numbers alone as a weapon -- and in some places, due to the nature of the combat, such as in forests and in cities, they are almost as good as anyone else. It's been a big mistake so far that Ukraine has not mobilized many more men and women to fight in this war, which they could surely do based on the size of their population, and whom they could easily supply while fighting on home soil, and in my opinion this perverse reticence has cost them many lives and will lengthen this horrible war.
Polar Vortex, what, have you been living under a rock? Ukraine has majorly mobilized, in multiple and ongoing rounds. It does not have the same manpower-supply problems Russia has.
@@polarvortex3294 Mobilizing troops strains the economy, and it is boring and stressful to sit in a trench and do nothing so if it can be avoided then it is preferable to avoid war exhaustion and to avoid the battered Ukrainian economy of falling even deeper into trouble.
And Ukraine does not have weapons for more troops, and even the army it have today has a shortage of training. And on top of that is it a logistical burden to keep more troops supplied with food and ammunition in the field.
So its better to just fill up the ranks in the army with volunteers and avoid drafting men for a while. As losses goes up it will become more and more important to replace them with new men who are not always so happy about going to war, but the Ukrainian army will remain in fighting shape for some time.
Doing like Russia and sending untrained, badly motivated mobikis to the frontline who are depressed and complain all the time will just drain the fighting morale also for the old professional army.
Europe is now training 60.000 Ukrainian troops - and many of them are trained on advanced weapon systems like Patriot missiles and Leopard 2 tanks and such. So there will not be much training available for new troops.
60.000 men is just a small fraction of armies numbering hundreds of thousands of men.
When attacking a defensive line, the attacker usually needs 3 soldiers for every defender to have combat power parity. But Ukraine has an equipment and training advantage. So Russia should expect to need 5 to 1 to have parity. However, Ukraine is also fighting for survival and their homes, while the Russians aren't particularly motivated, so let's say the Russians need 7 to 1 to have parity with Ukrainian defenders. So then, to win, let's make it tough for them and say Russia needs 9 soldiers for every 1 Ukrainian defender.
So, by this back of the napkin approach, for every 100k soldiers Ukraine brings east to defend the line, Russia would need to mobilize, train, and equip 900k men. With 7MM military age Russian men available, if Putin takes a totalitarian turn and puts the entire country on a war footing, conducts a coercive mobilization, and sends them all West, Ukraine will need to train and equip 1M soldiers to have parity with such a force. These are huge numbers.
@@nattygsbord, well said. And the hardware shortage is severe - I don't mean just tanks or IFVs, things as simple as 60 mm or 80 mm mortars are scarce.
Thankyou for this upload. Clarification is welcome
It's always enlightening and interesting to watch your balanced and informative videos! I'm always excited to see a new posting from you! Thank you for your time and effort in producing these, especially knowing your other demanding professional obligations. I'm an unabashed supporter of Ukraine's war effort and I certainly would like to see an increase in material support for the Ukrainian military. I think the coming months will really be something to behold!
Sign of manpower shortage: trained artillery personnel being handed rifles and ordered to serve as infantry
Insightful and sober analysis from Puck Nielsen.
Thank you! Insightful and interesting as always :)
Great analysis. Again.
Another way to estimate the number of dead/kia would be to use the Oryx numbers of total vechicle losses in ukraine since the beginning of the war, currently Russia have lost 10k pieces of equipment, you dont loose that much without having a big number of dead/wounded soldiers.
Excellent point. Well I asked ChatGPT (lol) for the ratios of past wars => Iraq War / Afghan war have a ~1:10 ratio, so if you lose 10k vehicles, using this rule of thumb, that would result in 100k soldiers lost.
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 3162.
@@chrisjon is that a number of equipment Ukraine has lost?I guess you mean the ones they lost before donations right?
That's a valid strategy for calculating approximate confirmed losses, but I've lost count of the number of videos I've watched on Telegram of russian trenches and surrounding areas full to the brim of dead russian and wagner soldiers. The numbers are absolutely mind blowing! So as always, I think we take all sets of numbers and find the median.
@@mdumisenihlophe4001 thats everything they have confirmed losses on, including UAVs, same goes for russian numbers, thats everything that is Visually confirmed,
For instance of those numbers Ukraine have lost 479 Tanks While Russia have lost 1927 Tanks.
Russia has also run out of class .. but that was 100 years ago ..and they are still out and badly need to re-up
Nice video!
Yet another great video! - thank You very much - and please remember - giving critique is the easiest thing in the world - treat it in kind!.
Thank you!
Excellent explanation. Thanks.
Subscribed easy and concise. Good commentary!
You are a gem Anders. A true gem. 💎
Sound stats, well presented. 👍
Great analysis as always
Thanks, Anders. Another interesting analysis. Greetings from Romania.
Tak for en seriøs analyse, fortalt med et normalt stemmeleje. 👍
Thanks for your clear explanation. Crazy numbers ......
I understand that time is limited and that quality video takes efforts to be produced but your interpretation of the situation is so valuable I hope you can find time to put the effort doing more videos they are so appreciated 🎉❤😊
Please respect that he is not just any youtuber living off this. His day job is being a naval officer in the Danish Defence Academy - doing exactly the same thing! Unless you have acces to military secrets yourself it doesn't get any better that this. He doesn't lay the entire puzzle for you, but you can always trust him to make the best possible pieces!
He also recently put out a video explaining that he would be posting less often, due to other responsibilities. Go watch it.
I have to mention that for long distances Ukrainian don’t count the ru losses. I have been watching the ru casualties list and when hit a big number of ru soldiers deep in line they don’t even add it. They count what they achieve and what they see with their drones in the daily report.
ukraine does not put out reliable Information about Russias losses as we see.
As usual great
Thank you.
I value much your work and for the future help the lessons we need to learn be remembered well.
Thanks!
Thats a good video and well balanced 👍
Great analysis, as always. Thank you so much!
I like how much you improved your channel in a short amount of time. Great stuff ! I'm a fan.
Watch DPA, Weeb Union, NWE war reports, History Legend.... etc to get real war updates. Watch this "The wheelchair General" if you only want to entertain your small brain 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Great analysis
Amazing analisis. Really enjoyed the video. Thank you.
Thank you SO much for another great upload.
Appreciate the work you do, and that you use your skills as a communicator and analyst, giving us your perspective.
Tak for at du gider bruge noget af din fritid på at give os dit perspektiv - du er bare en super NØRD og det er så fedt..
It is not a given that the Russians know the true number of casualties.
Casualty collection and tracking is a complex process.
The corruption revealed by the equipment and supply line shambles makes it very likely they haven't a clue in my opinion and probably even a calculated estimate is not reaching Putin!
Good work.
More alarming for the Russians, I think is that the first-wave of mobilized conscripts could not be adequately armed and equipped. There were numerous video clips from the mobilized personnel showing sub-standard gear and rusted and poorly-preserved weapons.
What would a second mobilization force have to contend with?
Mosin- Nagants?
I mean, mobilized Ukrainian troops are literally using WWI maxim guns, including as anti-air weapons, so….
Great video!
Thanks!
Quality. Like we are used to. Thanks
Nice analyses
Interesting way of analyzing the numbers but from a tactical or strategic standpoint a lot has been left out of the equation. What must be factored in is the types of losses, in other words, what percentage of the officer/NCO corps has been lost? It is very difficult to replace these types of losses, especially in terms of experience. Overall, training of these mobilized troops has been reported to be poor to non-existent so it's like a negative force multiplier. Further mobilizations will only become successively less productive as the pool of those with military experience, or those in the younger age brackets is exhusted. Training aside, there is a significant difference in battlefield performance, physical stamina and endurance between the 18-28 year olds, and those above that group. These factors would apply across the board however, when it comes to the more technical military specialities, it will be near impossible to substitute any of the newly mobilized for any job that requires much more than a few months training, and in the modern military, these technical positions represent a disproportionate percentage of what could be called "lethality" or factors that are considered "force multipliers".
"You go to war with the army you have, not the army you want".
Very good and thorough analysis as usual! Thanks and happy eastern from Germany
As I remember, Budanov said that Russia has hidden mobilization and it was mobilizing 20k a month.
This argument doesn't disprove that Russians will have manpower shortage, but it will probably be less severe than in October
Thanks
Another point is that the 300,000 new soldiers are not all front line combat troops. That includes a lot of people in support roles. Of course the Russian military already had mechanics and such, so if the 300k were primarily intended for combat then it wouldn't be the normal ratio you'd expect in a modern military, but definitely not all of them were intended to be infantry.
The Ukrainians have also been targeting supply dumps and repair depots which must imply the loss of trained specialist personnel.
Ive heard a lot of them are also placed in behind the line positions and such, to make up for all the empty spaces that redirected russian soldiers left.
Very true!
If you look at other force organisations charts, like fx US 3rd Armored Corps, A LOT of the formations and units are support roles. Signal companies, field hospitals, rear echelons of maintenance and supply.
A rule of thumb is normally for every frontline soldier at least 3 are in the rear/support roles. (And thats probably low for NATO standard units)
Thats the same with all armies.
i guess 1 'real' fighter to 7-10 support personal
I would add that "partial mobilisation" never ended, it has slowed down once 300k goal was reached, but there are still reports of people being continuously summoned to at least update their details, go trough refresher training and then many of the end-up being sent to Ukraine. I don't know the numbers, I doubt anyone except of ruzzian MOD knows the numbers, but I would assume it must be in 10s if not 100s of thousands since the official "end" of mobilisation.
As well ruzzian are still taking people out of prisons... and unlike wagner they don't care if one has volunteered...
So yes - since "partial mobilisation" the intake has slowed down, but not completely stopped.
Thank you
Amazing analysis. Greatings from Slovakia!!!
Seriøs analyse med åbne forudsætninger. Valide vurderinger af aktuel situation på slagmarken. Tak til Anders for at bidrage til klarhed over udvalgte aspekter af krigen.
Seriøs bullshit, more like.
This is some _wild_ English. Are you from Scotland?
@@dpelpal It's Danish, as Anders is from Denmark.
@@andriandrason1318 I was just joking. Love Danmark.
Russia is doing fine Ukraine has lost the best part of 750,000 dead and wounded love these Propaganda channels wonder what he'll say when Ukraine collapses. The PMC Wagner "the Musicians" have almost wiped out Bakhmut the main Russian military is still in reserve.
People talk about how Russia has these “massive manpower and resource reserve… which is entirely true… Russia can indeed draw on a very large supply of manpower.
However very rarely is it the case that a government will use their ENTIRE population in a war economy setting.
Ukraine is fighting for its survival so they are willing to use all of their resources in order to not be destroyed
Russia itself isn’t in one of these wars for survival (technically they aren’t even at war) so Ukraine doesn’t need to “destroy Russia” they need to destroy the army that was assembled
Russia has half the population of the United States. Subtract the elderly, children, disabled, etc. and the number of men available is not nearly what people think. This is Russia, not the Soviet Union. No Ukranians, Estonians, Latvians, etc. are available for Russia like they were for the Soviet Union.
And even if Russia wanted to mobilize its entire population, who is going to train all those men? Most of the trainers are dead. And how is Russia going to equip them? Are they going to open up the reserves from WWI or the Russo-Japanese war this time?
@@coolbreeze2.0-mortemadfasc13 plus how many Russians of conscriptable age and fitness are now living in Turkey, Georgia, etc
@@kryzoxy1 LMAOOOOOO SAVING THEIR PEOPLE?!?!? By conscripting them and sending them to fight in Ukraine? Yea right 🤡🤡🤡🤡
@@kryzoxy1 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣That's why they are deporting 1000 children to ruSSia in very bad conditions, taking them away from their parents where they are forced to sig the ruSSian anthem. And if they don't do that they are punished. Horror stories are coming out from children who were getting repatriated from ruSSia to UA!You are talking of +/-2500 civilians that were killed during those 8 years of fighting between Ukrainian military and the DNR and LNR sponsored and armed by ruSSia. And do you call the maybe 500k of ruSSian and Ukrainian soldiers and the Ukrainian civilians in proportion of those 2,5K ?
You are crasy man!
Great stuff Anders! If you have time, please consider making more of these videos. So insightful!
Glad I found this channel. Great presentations of what we honestly believe to be the facts. I will add this channel to my subscription list alongside Jake Broe and Vlad Vexler, Inside Russia, etc. Only the best get my subscription😊 lol
My faves are Anders and Perun
Super interesting video as always, Anders.
I really appreciate your very cool and collected view of the facts.
What facts? Serious question because he didn't use any. This was pure opinion based of what he admitted are unreliable sources. How does that lead to any facts?🤦♂️
Ok, Groomer, how not? He cited estimate sources both high and low, explaining as much, and that the exact numbers don't matter for his point---only that "high attrition rates" do (which all numbers noted support), whatever those specifics may be. He then quite reasonably selected a middling value to compute an example estimate.
@@okgroomer1966Ok, Ivan 🤡
@@jamesedwards6173 Answering 'trolls and the like' - even with the intent to refute then - just boosts their algorithms. Just saying. Otherwise we are in full agreement.
Ok, Groomer undoubtedly is a pathetic troll factory specimen. Not replying to him directly as per Ulrik Schack Meyer's tip.
Those numbers are mindboggling. So much suffering to reclaim someone's idea of a country's glory days.
Samson's doctrine bringing down pillars, we die all. Why wait to be killed inside your house. Come out square with the enemy outside. Our military motto.
Because they’re fake.
@@ffff7164 what's fake?.
@@wilylanet968 Russian glory days.
Zelenskyi isn't trying to reclaim.. And so doesn't Putin.
Zelenskyi is a US puppet who is trying to survive and get rich with mainly help from US ... Putin is trying to push back "silent" (Maidan) NATO expansion.
What a great series of videos! Thank you, Anders! Looking forward to more.
I noticed that in estimating the Russian soldiers losses you first say that a good rule of thumb is to assume for each dead to be 3 wounded. Later you use 2 wounded for each dead to arrive at 1,500/day. I guess, you're trying to err on conservative side, which I applaud.
It's clear how dire must be the situation for the Russians with the materiel; it suffice if we look at their newly fostered dependence on their Iranian, Chinese, and North Korean brethern.
Could it be that Russia continued to "mobilize" (aka force against their will) men into the army after the initial announced mobilization? As in, they said they'd mobilize 300,000, but they actually mobilized say 500,000? This to get more manpower while limiting unrest in Russia itself.
Tak, hr :)
Thanks as always for excellent, level-headed analysis!
Ukraine has lost 200,000 acc. to Col. Macgregor, with the wounded ans missed it is 500,000.
Schiefe Ebene, congrats for citing info from someone who's lost their marbles on this subject?
@@jamesedwards6173 Lol, yup Magregor is like Ritter - whack jobs.
@@jamesedwards6173 You never listened to him.
Schiefe Ebene, please tell me you don't seriously believe that to be a compelling reply.
As always, informative and serious content from you Anders! Glad to see someone on youtube questioning numbers etc. Glory to Ukraine!
haahahahaha that was a good joke
Thank you for the video. I do think your tie bar should be several centimeters higher, though.
A known, but sad and cynical fact, is that its better to badly wound soldiers than kill them. The military thinking here is that a wounded soldier ties up resources. In the case of the Wagner group they may just leave them but overall the attrition remains as a factor alongside the impact on tying up resources to a degree.
It's not just ChVK Vagnera who just leave their wounded behind, the regular Russian army do it as well.
Just like there's the occasional prisoner swap, same happens to recovered bodies...
They will be left behind to rot and die, even though Russia's slogan before the war was "We don't leave our people behind"
I’m not sure, the word KIA resonates much stronger than badly wounded. The political consequences from a high number of KIA is massively bigger than the same number of badly wounded. Even in financial aspect, if a country care enough to spend resources to badly wounded soldiers they usually spend comparable if not more amount of money and resources to the soldier’s family.
Reportedly the Wagner Group just kills their seriously wouned mercenaries!
And they've only got shovels, incredible😂
gulag prisoners beats NATO-trained army by MPL-50 secret weapon
As always, very pertinent, intelligent, well delivered and most of all interesting! Contrary to some other channel, you only publish when you have something to say.
Takk!
Love your videos! Please make more!!! Btw, have you ever concidered making content by interviewing Perun? You guys feel like you have a similar high level of analytical approach, so would be great to hear you interact! ❤
I'll second that. But they both have been to Jake Bro, if I remember correctly?
Crossover of the century
@@ulrikschackmeyer848 Yes they have. I watch Jake Bro every day, but honestly he is more opinions and less analytical. Another great analyst that I found though Jake Bro is Vlad Vexler who breaks down the political dimension of the war.
Hi Anders. Great video, as always. A question that you may touch upon at some time: How is the morale of the two sides? We have heard much about the Russians having an absolutely dismal morale, but how do you see this? I have read many sources, but I often wonder if those sources are 100% objective. Therefore, I would really value your opinion.
Ask yourself when was the last time Ukraine managed to regain some lost territory and you will find out about the morale of Russian soldiers.😏
@@micheleabate146 Well, Ukraine is defending, and to win they only need to grind down the Russian army. For Russia to win, they do need to take land because they're on borrowed time, every day they get weaker while Ukraine gets stronger.
The main reason Russia hasn't taken much land at all in the last 9 months or so is because of combat compliance being extremely low due to poor morale; nobody is willing to fight, hence they need to rely on penal troops.
Besides, in the start of the war when Russia lost almost all of their land gains, you retards were saying that the objective of war "isn't to take land". Now it is?
Intercepted phone calls, prisoners of war, and defectors.
@@micheleabate146 The Ukrainians are holding, waiting for advanced weaponry from the free-world before beginning their offensive. This is all openly understood by the allies. I’m surprised you don’t understand it 🤔
pozor rosii
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
@@micheleabate146 Russian troll account with videos that purport to show election 'fraud' in the USA.
Great unbiased presentation.
Meanwhile, Russia is making steady advances in Bakhmut which they might complete before the Ukranian counter offensive. This reminds me when the Western mainstream media said that Russia was running out of missiles only for them to use more in the upcoming months.
A good informative channel that you've been able to create keep us updated as a NATO military analysis that does a have real factual background in NATO military thinking.
I enjoyed that.
This didn't age well. 420,000 volunteers in 2023 and the army is now at 1,5 million, double its prewar strength.
But far from pre-war quality.
I'm not thinking the equipment at the moment.
@@mariaf.6601Far from prewar quality? How so?
"volunteers" 1.5 now...so these highly motivated troops should make head way to the capital by what date?
@@properjob79You mean Kiev? We'll see.
@@justinswanton287Training, motivation, superiors - all are worse than in the professional contract army.
Then it comes equipment - from tanks to (lack of) boots and tourniquets.
A note on the number of vehicle / plane losses: those are confirmed by video. So the true number is probably higher.
The number of burials is not accurate since russia uses mobile crematoria. Or just leave them. Also, sometimes nothing is left....
The number of casualties is also based on the money reserved by Moscow to be paid to families. And it is excluding wagner and the seperatists. So the number is much higher.
Good point. In general I also think the Ukrainian numbers are pretty good. They have a big interest in maintaining credibility.
@@anderspuck hi, yes i agree, i also find the various channels of people (ukraine matters, etc.) Are as neutral as can be expected, they give both good and bad news. It's quite a contrast to russian trolls who basically claim leopard 2 tanks being destroyed when they weren't even in the country.
Cheers.
And they only count Russians.
Chechians, seperatist and Wagner dose not count.
Not to mention the Russian dead stored in refrigerated trailers by the Ukrainians..
It is not just that, but Ukraine have to maintain a balance, they must go good enough that it is worth investing the time and effort to help them. New weapons systems takes month of training, and Ukraine had to withstand the russian onslaught while being short thousands of soldiers in training.
Ukraine must at the same time not downplay the hardships too much, or it would seem that they do not actually need help.
But in this war, there is no question that Ukraine is winning the propaganda war outside some extreme right morons in the west and a range of dictatorships and failing democracies.
To mobilize more soldiers, wouldn't that also require enough equipment and the capacity to train the newly recruited soldiers to see substancial progress on the battlefield?
And supply. And a strategy. And tactics. Which none of it Russia has. Which again is why so many soldiers die. Which again is why they need more mobilization. Russia is done. The only question is, if they are going to push the button or not, to take us with them while the are going down.
At this point this seems to be a "nice to have" for russia and no longer a requirement. There seem to be a lot of barely equiped fresh recruits involved in russian assaults.
Ideer you are right. But Anders chose ONLY to answer the personnel question, this time around. He usually only does short videos in wich he has something clear to say about ONE important issue.
To me it seems like Russia can't afford to train them or supply them properly at the front, so they count on having strength in numbers rather than being effective.
I do expect the figures regarding Russian losses being closer to the truth than the figures reported by Russia. But it's impossible to get good figures regardless of how you do it. Deaths occurring due to disease and malnutrition are also key items to consider.
Cannon fodder doesn't take a lot of training...