Vlad Vexler has made a reaction video where he expands on my arguments. I agree with everything Vlad says, and I highly recommend you watch his video too. ua-cam.com/video/ALLQLsfucvw/v-deo.html
I have often wondered whether Russia and China shooting themselves in the foot so badly in recent years was just a coincidence or part of a US strategic scenario. Having the enemy overreach and exhaust himself prematurely is a strategy that has worked countless times for the US, in both peace and wartime.
@@Sonmi-451 The USA has shot itself in the foot overseas far more than Russia or China for decades. The USA has pointedly learned nothing by doing it either.
As long as Blinkin runs around the planet meddling in everything making really "clumsy" decisions i can't imagine it being much of a strategy to begin with. Stoltenberg seems like he's demoted to press secretary. Should China take over the reigns for a while I'm questioning if that's a bad thing in comparison.
During WW II propaganda relied on shutting down all communication channels, besides those which were politically correct. It in fact didn't work back then already, as BBC was sending radio messages via the English channel anyways. These days it's even more difficult to isolate a population from opposite information. Nevertheless Russia tries to shut down opposing media platforms. But the people already tasted free media. And while older people are often stuck, the younger generations know how to get information from other sources aside from the official news. It's less about NATO planning something. It's more about lost liberties wich Russians already grew accustomed to. That is not a plan, but an automatic transformation, which happened anyways. It'll be interesting to see how both forces will change Russia, making the people politically engaged, while taking away a large part of their liberties. On top of that, demanding the people to literally die for the Russian regime. 🤺🤷😉
This is probably the first time I have to strongly disagree with Anders. Hoping that Russians would develop a sense of agency is a pipedream. Anders is by no means alone in being misinformed and wrong here. I think most western european politicians share exactly the same illusion about Russians. Russians have been slaves most of their history. They've had only two short periods of being free (couple of decades before the 1917 revolutions, and the other between 1991 - 2012 or so). The slave mentality - disengagement, apathy, fear, self pity, obedience, lack of respect (of themselves and towards others), no sense of responsibility, etc. - is an unspoken, but integral part of their upbringing. They won't just magically dispel the patterns of thought that have been there for their whole life. It's utterly foolish and ignorant to assume so. Sure there are exceptions, mainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Most of these people have left Russia by now, though. In summary, if there will be some kind of "popular uprising" in Russia, you can be pretty damn sure it's not a grass roots movement. This BTW, is also the reason members of Russian elite do genuinely believe that so called color revolutions are plots organized by CIA or other intelligence services. They simply don't believe in concepts like individual freedom or individual agency. Those things have never played any part in their world. They cannot fathom the meaning of individual freedom because they have never experienced it and neither did anyone they ever knew. For them, it's an abstraction without reality - or a clever propaganda trick the Western elites and governments play.
Hi Anders, Thankyou. As a regular follower of Vlad, he referenced you, to also consider watching, which I did. It is always enlightening to consider other opinions, perhaps as Vlad often point's out this gives balance to the subject under review, offering greater perspective. I for one have subscribed and look forward to seeing more of your posts Perth West Australia
You make a good point about the level of disengagement in Russian politics. One of the reasons that many western analysts gave as to why they believed there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine, is that there was no attempt in Russian media to prepare the Russian public for war. I now understand why this didn't happen - there was simply no need to bring the Russian people "on side", since they have no political agency within Russia.
Russia has roughly 150mio citizens. Up to now, 150,000 Russian soldiers got killed or extremely hurt in Ukraine - that is 1 out of thousand Russians. Nearly all of them are men - so it is like 1 out of 500 men. Most of them are from a certain age range, so it is 1 out of 250 men out of this group. That means nearly everybody has gone to school with someone from this group, nearly everybody has worked together with someone from this group, or visited the same sports club... This war has come close to home very fast...
In the big cities they may not get conscripted but they now realize that they’re becoming a Third World Country. All the interviews on 1420 I’ve seen show Russians very proud of how strong and powerful they are, how “everybody” wants their natural resources. To get lumped in with Africa, India, Iran and China is not what they consider part of their “Royal” lineage. They are “European” white folks gosh darn it.
That's why all this talk of putin "freezing" this conflict is wishful thinking on behalf of the tankies. Can't freeze a conflict if you are the one profusely bleeding in it. putin lost that alternative when he turned the war hot last year.
The problem in Russia with empowering people politically is that they probably lack the democratic "gene" To what degree are Russians capable of loosing a political argument and then respecting the wishes of the majority? We often see in other fallen dictatorial countries how the new political diversity ends up with factional violence.
Excellent commentary! Since early last year, I've seen some commentators liken contemporary Russian Federation's socio-political order to that of Nazi Germany at its peak of internal power and coherence. That has almost certainly never been the case and is unlikely ever to be the case, and this was observable all along based on cues such as Putin's actions, what he did and did not say, and the actual manifestations of social engagement with his war project. Claims have repeatedly been made about Putin having very high popularity during his decades in power; while it is certainly true that any opposition he has faced has been progressively squelched the evidence for his high popularity has never been particularly compelling or prima facie valid. Good polling is challenging even in the most open societies and the capacity to conduct good social science in general is progressively diminished by oppression. Civil wars never emerge out of thin air, meaning that, in hindsight it is often easy to identify the moderating or even mediating factors which precipitated the outbreak of conflict. But this does not mean that civil wars have "diagnostic signs" which allow us to predict when, where and how they will occur, or if they will occur at all. In some cases, societies can persist in states of relative instability for years or even decades with disorder and internal conflict which suggest an impending civil war and it never actually happens. All this to say: it is impossible to predict if, when, where or how a civil war will arise in RF. But, the signs that one could arise have been present for quite some time, and those signs grow more pronounced and widespread as time goes on. Western leaders, commentators, etc., and ANYONE who wishes to promote humanity and Ukraine in particular are behooved to recognize this and do what they can to promote a civil war in RF because that is the least bad prospect for this horror coming to an end. The simplest way for any and all of us to promote Putin's downfall is simply to talk about it, but another critical factor is to NOT suffer chauvinistic generalizations about Russians, which I have seen some of the most open-minded, well-informed and well-intentioned commentators do (not you Anders!). Russians who are either opposed to Putin or merely uncommitted need to know that, many or ideally MOST people in the rest of the world do not hate them simply for being Russian and moreover, that people outside Russia harbor hopes for a reformed Russian society which plays a positive, harmonious and generative role in the international order. The same is true for any and all people who are subject to an oppressive regime (e.g., China, Iran, North Korea, etc.). Hate Putin, hate his regime, hate his loyal followers, but DO NOT hate "Russians" in general, and especially those who are not clearly aligned with Putin. That is the single most important thing for all of us to keep in mind at all times and probably the single most effective way a common person can contribute. As far as "20%" of the RF being opposed to the Putin regime, as you note, it is quite difficult to speculate confidently about such proportions, so I don't think it is particularly edifying to do so. I did want to say though that, 20% of a population being strongly opposed to an authoritarian or even a totalitarian regime would tend to be regarded as a potentially ample fraction to drive a civil war by many scholars. There is no fixed or agreed-upon fraction of a population that is required to provoke a successful revolution, as this can vary depending on a variety of factors such as the political and economic context, the level of support from other social groups, the strength and tactics of the ruling regime, and the availability of resources and external support. Some scholars and activists have suggested that a critical mass of around 3-5% of the population may be necessary to sustain a social movement or political campaign, while others argue that even a small minority can have a significant impact on social change through strategic organizing, mobilization, and media outreach. However, it is important to note that the success of a revolution or social movement is not solely determined by the size of its following, but also by factors such as leadership, organizational structure, ideology, and tactics. Because Putin's decades-long project to "de-politicize" the Russian society was so successful up until Feb 2022, his regime is in some ways quite vulnerable to a potential insurrection or revolt against his power, particularly if that revolt is being led by a confederation of secessionist "Governors" of Federal Subjects (I believe their actual title in Russian is "Head," but effectively the regional administrators of oblasts and other Federal Subjects are equivalent to what we call "Governors" in the U.S.). I think that it is pretty widely accepted that actual support for and loyalty to the Putin regime is considerably lower in some of the territories of RF comprising historically oppressed and marginalized ethnicities within the Russian Federation (e.g., Tatars, Dagestani, the various indigenous peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East, Chechens and other North Caucasus peoples, Roma people, migrants and refugees, etc.), to say nothing of persons whose identity makes them a target for repression by the regime (LGBT persons and political activists among others). My hunch is that there is a very large fraction of the total population of the Russian Federation who dislike Putin and this war intensely, but they are not unified and they lack voice. Those last two factors can change pretty rapidly and I suspect that they have already been changing considerably during the past 14 months. We might think of a Western society as an iceberg with a substantial fraction of the total mass above the waterline, lets say 50% or even more; meaning that, the actual dimensions of the phenomenon are mostly visible and making the capacity to guess what comes next easier. Because of how disengaged Russians have been for decades, the fraction that is above the waterline is probably an order of magnitude LESS than in "open" societies like ours in the West, so more like 5% or less. The fact that there have been hundreds of anomalous "incidents" inside Russia (some VERY remote from Ukraine), such as fires, explosion, apparent acts of sabotage, assassinations, etc., seem to corroborate this notion that there is actually much more going on "under the waterline" than is immediately visible to anyone, but especially those of us who are neither experts on contemporary Russian society, nor living inside Russia, which is the vast majority of commentators on the war.
If you see street interviews in russia, most say they support the war, but most are very scared saying it..... Once they get over that fear things hopefully get moving.
Russian Federation is already in the middle of its downfall. The British empire as well didn’t disappear in one day 😂. But Russian break up won’t take that long 😊
I am a bit surprised that Putin feels like the Ukraine war is worth so much effort... wouldn't it make more sense for him to simply "declare victory", move on, and downplay any future counterattacks by Ukraine? Seems much less risky that way...
@@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo Except for being a Russian, being part of a Russian family and growing up in that Russian family, regularly visiting the country, speaking the language, following Russian politics as a political philosopher, being immersed in Russian literature/ music/ culture his entire life, etc.
@@Lorenz1973 He and his family moved to Israel when he was 9 years old. Regularily visiting Russia? AFAIK he visited Russia three or four times in the last 30 years. He might know a thing or two about Russia, but hardly about Russians.
Good analysis, very informative, and like always both un-biased and thought-provoking. You mentioned your interview/ conversation with Maxim Katz, I watched it and highly recommend it to others. Knowing that you only upload new content when you really have something on mind, many thanks for all your work, it helps us to better understand how the things work on a broader spectrum, making it easier for us to draw our own conclusions.
@sixmillionsilencedaccounts3517 Russia producing military supplies and equipment to Ukraine to be wasted, destroyed or used up makes Russian GDP look higher but it makes Russians and their economy no better off than if Russia just blew up those military supplies and equipment in the parking lots of the factories where they were made. Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine only a low percentage of Russia's GDP like China's GDP was actual consumer spending that was of benefit to citizens and now things are worse. Producing military shells and bullets and military vehicles to send to Uktaine inflates the Russian GDP but is of absolutely no real benefit to Russia or to Russian citizens. As well, it would be foolish to trust any economic information supplied by the Russian government which lies all the time.
One little addition to what you were saying. It not only matters what percentage of Russians who become politically engaged join "bubbles" other than the Putin bubble but it also matters how those people are distributed across Russia. If 17% of all Russians join a non-Putin bubble that may not sound like a high percentage but if they are to some extent concentrated in certain regions so that in those regions at least 50% of people are in a particular non-Putin bubble then that is a serious concern for Putin. If in particular Moscow and another large western Russian city both have at least 50% of the population in a particular non-Putin bubble then even if in the country as a whole "only" 17% of people are in that particular non-Putin bubble he will still be in a very difficult position.
Thank you! As always, you have put reason, words, and examples to my emotions, and it allows me to better organize my thoughts and think more clearly. Your 11+ minutes here have been more useful than many hours of other people's blather.
To win we'd need SOME help. Anything! It's been over a YEAR asking to close the sky, send troops or give us planes, or at least stop buying russian oil and West has done NOTHING! Except buy more fossil fuels from russians and sing kumbaya. No embargoes, recent US leak shown there's NO secret training or special forces work underway. Only embassy guards inside... Nothing is done, only talks and minimal supply of ammo and tech that barely covers our losses. Goddamn russia is presiding in UN Security Council. You can't even imagine how much Ukrainians despise the Westerners now. Inaction that killed millions, in Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Ukraine, Georgia and wherever else russians will decide to pillage next.
Thank you Anders! Always great videos! #RussiaIsATerroristState Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
Yes really helpful thank you. It is doubly a critical moment because not only has Putin reached a point where he has to change the internal Russian political status quo, but the Ukrainians, armed with high morale and some decidedly heavy weaponry, are about to try to defeat his army in a fight to the finish. I keep seeing those young Ukrainian men at the beginning or the war going out to meet the second most powerful army in the world carrying Stingers wearing blue jeans. They had absolutely no chance, yet war is the father of all things.
As you said, Putin's future depends on his success in Ukraine, where UK, Germany, USA and the strong will of the Ukrainians to stay independent also play a role. Ergo, Putin's future in the hands of foreign powers.
I think a Venn diagram would fit the situation better, to be honest. The steps do not necessarily happen in order, and the second step may well have happened already.
Great Vlog, but you are so incorrect when you say Putin taught people to stay out of politics. That level of disengagement has formed over many generations who learned that you do not disagree with the State or your life becomes difficult. Even at the level of getting gas put into a street, if it doesn't happen as promised, it's probably graft, keep quiet, make a fuss and you might find your laid off at work. People from the Western Cities are so different to the rest of Russia too. They are more likely to be educated, to have travelled outside of Russia and to use the WWW more. They tend to have a wider perspective than is pushed through the State Controlled media. Generally you have a very Western perspective on Russia that people can suddenly become interested in politics and throw off generations of inculcation. Recently what we have seen have been protests _to the state_ by mothers of lost soldiers, not protests _against the state_ . After all the State is something that you have to accept as a Russian. And, that is the core of it, for generations Russians have been taught to accept. Putin is perhaps only interested in keeping the populace on side as, if he becomes unpopular, then those in the Kremlin might try to topple him. What we might see is a move by Federation States to secede from the Federation, if there is a power vacuum. We must remember that Russia keeps very substantial levels of troops in each State and they are always troops from a different State. If a State like Chechnya secedes then we may see a domino effect. Thanks for the Vlog 👍
Excellent analysis, Anders. You clearly explain several key points I've been wondering about with regards to the Russian social contract that requires a large segment of the population to remain morally "asleep" and apathetic and uninterested in politics in order for Putin to survive. Thank you.
If the social contract needs to be broken then Putin can also call upon his trump card "Patriotism". If he can successfully play this card then it trumps all political diversity problems in the country. Patriotism is one of those things that is totally engrained into the Russian psyche.
It took me a while to get my head around this political apathy at the start of the war. I watched street interviews with ordinary Russians and was astounded by their detachment from what was going on.
From the average Russian perspective Ukraine is just the last entry on a list of “military operations” in and around its borders Russia has been engaged in in the last 2 decades. I doubt Russian state media give citizens actual info on what’s going on and to what scale. They certainly don’t publish data about human losses and certainly don’t talk about the war crimes their troops commit. I saw an interview where an old lady categorically denied Russians massacred civilians. “Our soldiers don’t do those things.”
@@pansepot1490 1) Putin haven't invaded a single country that wasn't bombing civilians at Russian borders 2) According to BBC sponsored Mediazona for march 4 there are 16k Russian losses (not including DNR and LNR forces) according to cementeries and reports on social media. Roughly the same amount of people die in car crushes in Russia per year. 3) You will always have bad people in any army and it's impossible to avoid due to human nature. For example recently there was a report about Australian soldiers killing civilians for fun in Afghanistan and forcing inexperienced soldiers to kill pow to get their first kill 4) There's indeed zero evidence that Russians did anything bad to civilian population. I remember one video of civilian getting of bike and sneaking to Russian positions to get shot later. Which was well deserved, especially considering that Ukrainian government gave civilians weapons in first days of war. And there are countless of videos of ukrainian civilians protesting Russian forces, staying Infront of tanks or asking Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets and no hostile actions towards them later
@@pansepot1490 People belive in what they wish to belive.Your comment simple suggest some UkraineWest propaganda sound humoristic for many independent thinkers.
The war started in 2014. Before that they invaded Georgia in 2008. West really helped with "russian reboots" and buying record amount of oil. We had literal Navalny protesters caught as PoWs, even the few russians who protest their own government still go to war because they're just like that.
I said before it is the mother's that will make change there have been sparks but as you say it make take the mother's closer to Moscow, St Petersburg to lose their son's
I predicted Russia "balkanizing" way back 2014 after the Crimea incident. When a country starts playing imperialistic games in current year Europe you know it doesn't have much time left.
Life is not a video game. Taking crimea did not destabilise Russia. If anything it probably helped it politically. War is a destabilising factor inherent to itself.
@@BobWill1846 Only on the most surface levels of detail is your statement correct. At the time, yes, it did seem to help out Russia. However, it unleashed a long chain of events which hurt Russia far more than taking a bit of land could help out. It served as a wake up call to Russia's imperial ambitions, and allowed Ukraine to start gathering strength.
My guess, for some time now, has been that Russia will end up as a cross between Belarus and North Korea. It will collapse into a much smaller country, dependant as a vassal state, upon China, who will keep them poor and struggling, but strong enough to remain a thorn in the west’s flesh. At least, that seems to be what Xi has decided? Note: Chinese electronic maps (their version of Google Maps and so on) have changed the names of regions in the southern areas of the Russian, “Federation,” back to their old Mandarin designations. If that is not a statement of intent, from a nation that is just as desperate as Russia for an injection of, “population,” to curb their demographic crisis, then what is?
@@BobWill1846 : That’s right. “Life is not a video game,” which is why Russia LOSING Crimea is not the, “world shattering,” threat to the world’s stability that Putin so desperately wants you to think it is. There can be no negotiations for peace until the last Russian jackboot has been removed from Crimea. And if that needs to be over Putin’s dead body, so be it. But he’s the only individual on the planet who’s staked his life on keeping it. And the rest of Russia won’t want to sacrifice anything more, once they’ve already lost so much by then. Demagogues can’t buy loyalty, as Putin will find out. When you call for, “peace,” you really mean, “surrender.” Not happening.
I believe the 'critical mass' threshold is around that 20 percent mark, where things can start to 'boil over'. I'm not sure if there are people in the Kremlin who have idea of the complexities of trying to run a 'populist' dictatorship in a country that is fighting a war that many people don't feel enthuastic about and which is going more or less badly. Thanks for the video!
I’ve watched many street interviews with ordinary Russians and when asked what they think about political or policy topics a very common response is “I’m not an expert in such things, so I don’t have an opinion.” This might be fear of expressing an opinion or they are genuinely detached from any political agency or thought.
That's literally what PoWs say too. So anyone sniffing hopium that russians are SECRETLY anti-war, we literally catch Navalny supporters who claim to be apolitical yet came to kill us as part of their armed forces. See Zolkin interviews. Those are the "ordinary russians". Like, a dude was arrested for protesting corruption... Still went to war. They're fine with genocide.
Great work as always Anders. I watch a few Russian UA-camrs and follow some on other Social Media. Also some who are older and not in risk of mobilization. It’s always interesting to see their takes on the political climate inside Russia! Another issue I would absolutely love hearing your take on, is the request for more modern weapon platforms, such as Multirole/Fighter Jets, (Gripen, F16, etc.), Multirole/CAS like attack helicopters, more air defence units, and of course, more Leopard 2. Is it even realistic for Ukraine to retake Crimea within a foreseeable future unless we supply these platforms??? The Russians are heavily entrenched by now, preparing for Ukraine going on the offense! My personal opinion is we might as well start making sure Ukraine can receive and utilize such platforms - I’ve learned a long time ago a saying I try to implement in my own life, “having the right tools is half the job" - and I think it’s about time we start focusing on giving Ukraine the right tools….. As always, thank you for your insight - as always, your perspective is very much appreciated! Tusind tak for at du bruger tid på at dele dine tanker om krigen med os Anders!
Agreed and why are Ukraine still waiting for ALL the right tools? This is the free worlds duty to ensure hitler clones get a clear message.” YOU DON’T PUSH THE FREE WORLD AROUND EVER”
I'm curious if Ukraine can develop thermobaric rockets, because NATO doesn't use them. Those would make quick work of Russian trenches. One deep breakthrough would lead to mass panic, and the collapse of the Russian front, like it did in Kharkiv.
My only concern is the transition time to go from 1980s vintage Warsaw Pact hardware to the 2K generation: the levels of automation might make operational use easy, but maintenance and support an issue. Also, I have no idea how all this different NATO hardware works together. Is there enough compatibility between EU and US hardware to swap between them? I’m an ex-USAF “wrench bender”, and remember major issues between variants of the same aircraft. Inventory lags could slow operational tempo to a crawl if loses are high.
Like a good TV series you left me hanging on your final comments Anders and I am now waiting for the next installment. Please follow up with the instability scenarios. Russia breakup, loss of Belarus support, ultra nationalists displacing Putin, etc
The majority of the Belarussian population are against Lukachenko. Belarus are a Russian vassal state in line with those liberated when USSR collapsed. The East German archieves showed that approximately 15-20% of the population were in some shape or form working for, or were forced informers, against the rest. Given the electronic surveillance world we live in, Belarus probably do not need that high a percentage, but I do not think it are far of. I agree with your requests. The instability scenarios are really interesting. Would not be far fetched that current situation could lead to regions/blocks inside Russia seeking independence. Personally I have no doubt WE can handle Russia AND China together if we just have some principle we follow. My fear are the collapse of USA or that it falls into facism. You have to be American to call the US system democracy and it have been diluted over time. I truly worry for USA and its population. The 86% of Americans that a few days before the war against Iraq after 9/11 that in a huge demographic survey agreed to the statement: "Should US invade Iraq to revenge 9/11?" are numbers POOtin never would be able to achieve in an open honest survey in Russia. Considering it were a total lie from USA´s side 86% are a scary percentage showing you can get the US population to believe anything in 50 days as long as all media do not do their job. Free media LOL. Democracy naahhh. Lobby laws that judicially would resemble corruption in ANY EU nation: Check!. POOtin´s efforts to aid Trumps election successfully were a pinnacle in POOtin´s political life for him. Some, not least in the fossil fuel industry, seems very keen on this war to go on forever. WHY do we not step more up and make sure POOtin are crushed in a few weeks in Ukraine? Dark forces in own ranks!
A more detailed analysis of the situation in Belarus and in different states/ regions across Russia would be rather interesting… can’t see many Belarusian people supporting any of their dictator’s actions, also wondering about some of the Russian regions that were disproportionately affected by military recruitment/ draft, various ethnic minorities, economically disadvantaged regions, etc.
I just want to point out that a lot of free space now exists in Russian prisons, and that free space can be maintained if existing prisons are revolving doors for the military. Failing to obey the instructions of a police officer will get you arrested. FSB troops exist for a reason, and it's not to invade other countries.
Thank you Anders for your very thorough and extremely informative approach to explaining this dreadful war. I appreciate that and I agree with you. Ty again.
I have Russian relatives and can say, Russian society is quite affected a lot by propaganda. At least the older generation doesn't know what's going on and believes mostly what is said on tv. The younger generation is quite diverse. My wife and some of her friends don't like putin, also not the war. Still they sometimes also cheer with the Russian military as their patriotic mindset does want Russia to succeed in this situation. On a rational basis they anyhow understand there is not so much left to win, especially for the indivual Russian who gets nothing from territorial gains, but a lot of new sanctions and economical problems. And even if they agree that putin is a problem, many are very neutral on making a demonstration, as the consequences are huge and they could be arrested. So for the moment I would say Putin is still stable, it all depends how sanctions will still affect the life of normal russians (which still has not the big effect) and of course if Ukraine can succeede in counter offensives. Both could demoralize russians a lot, who are in the end of course also tired by this conflict (even if they still support putin)
@@virgiliustancu9293 We are all affected by media, of course. Still it depends how broad you inform yourself and willing to inform yourself (as a lot of people prefer to stay in a filter bubble, which also happens in the west of course). And also how many possibilities you have to inform yourself (plurality of media provided). I have Russian relatives and know the Russian (or Russian state media) view on the conflict very well. Still here I stick with the western one, as the Russian media regarding the conflict just makes no sense (everywhere Nazis but not in Russia) and has simply the job to justify conquering foreign land.
@@virgiliustancu9293 So that's the best response you can come up with? I thought that Russian internet trolls doing this as their day job could do much better. I guess not.
What I find most amazing is that in those last 14 months or so Russia suffered losses that way surpass those of their occupation of Afghanistan, which resultet in the end of the Soviet era, but currently the Russian society makes the impression of being braindead or brutalized. My guess is that Putin and his thugs will try to corner the Russian society into compliency.
One of the issues here is that Putin has criminalized the Anti-War movement. It is not possible to criticize, protest, or in any way push back against Putin's policies in regards to the war without risking police harassment and intimidation, arrest and imprisonment (for example, for the man whose daughter drew an anti-war picture), or even worse. Given this, at what point they will actually mobilize against him and organize a cogent Anti-war movement - if at all - is very hard to predict.
That's what makes it especially dangerous for Putin, they have no idea where the breaking point is and they can't monitor public sentiment if people are forbidden from expressing their actual opinions. If it is going to change then it'll happen bit-by-bit at first and then all-at-once.
I imagine that a lot of these disengaged russian already have an opinion or sets of values that they simply do not voice. Therefor it isn't as easy as just engaging the public in politics and convincing them that they should support Putin's agenda, one would also have to convince (a portion of) them that their current beliefs are wrong, which is a very difficult task.
You have some good points there. B.t.w. welcome in NATO (when those other two countries get their *sses together), we have been keeping the chair warm for you, Swedish sisters and brothers, since 1949. Hälsning från Danmark.
"We" have noticed that there is a generation factor in Russian people's perception of the war, in two events the younger mostly male population (Who would be most affected by the war)fled Russia and Russia has tried to make this more difficult for the upcoming mobilisation (Putin will have to mobilise or he will lose anyway), the younger females have been seen protesting against the war, the middle generation seem to accept their fate without having an alligance to Putin (....and are more likely to be ineffective as they are majorly addled on vodka) and the older generation (Who are unlikely to be involved in the war) are mostly Putin supporters, so a swing is needed in the younger generation, which if mobilisation turns up in Moscow or St Petersburg elite might be easily achievable, obviously success on the battlefield is important for Ukraine in the coming months to rachet the pressure on Putin by a number of degrees, a significant decline in the Russian economy would help matters as well which is also not far from the reality, with a little bit of luck Russia could be in a major pickle by July or August!?!
Why do you think that Russian beliefs are wrong but yours are right? Do you think that NATO population should rise up against their leaders and make them leave middle east? Do you think Palestine should take back their territory from Israel and restore their borders? Do you think that USA should stop sending weapons to Taiwan and respect Chinas sovereignity and borders?
@@yellowtunes2756 Taiwan....It's about money. Europe is in the process of building factories that can produce chips when they are ready, cool the interest for Taiwan. But who is right Taiwanese are ethnically Chinese but people in a country have the right to secede. It has happened in the history of my own country
It will be interesting to see the impact of returning soldiers from Ukraine. It was these people telling the stories to friends and families that ended the Soviet war with Afghanistan and the US war with Viet Nam
@@normanstevens4924 Do you remember what happened after the USSR left Afghanistan? The losses in Afghanistan was NOTHING compared to the losses Russia is facing in Ukraine! There’s a very high chance that this could result in the end of the Federation, or at least regions attempting to go for independence!
There are now thousands of people who know how to use weapons who can choose to get angry at Putin, Ukraine, or another scapegoat. At some point they could organize an uprising together. For now, they're following orders even if it means killing their own men for retreating. They don't sound enthusiastic in the intercepted phone conversations Ukraine has released or the public appeals for better gear. (Complaining about gear is one of the few forms of protest that doesn't risk a long prison term.)
I read an article written by a Russian trying to explain the mindset of the average Russian. He mentioned a rally Navalnyj held back when he was running. A very excited guy came up to Navalnyj after his speech and told him, "if you become President, then I will definitely vote for you" - and no, it wasn’t poor translation of what had been said! I’ve heard an old Russian saying that goes something like this: "Never wish death upon the Tzar", and while it to most sound as support of the Tzar/regime, the implicit meaning/unspoken part, is that the replacement might easily be even worse!
@@gorillaguerillaDK And this nicely explains Russia's high rate of alcoholism and death rate - signs of despair. I imagine China is deliberately not selling them fentynal if they are propping up Russia.
Vlad Vexler has made a reaction video where he expands on my arguments. I agree with everything Vlad says, and I highly recommend you watch his video too. ua-cam.com/video/ALLQLsfucvw/v-deo.html
Tak Anders 👍 Super kanal du laver Iøvrigt /Jens/KN-R
Vlad has a very deep understanding of what goes on so thank you. ^^ (tak!)
So weird, I just made a comment that is, pretty much, the topic of this exact video. This feels so weird. Wow, even Pandora's Box. It's getting scary!
Way ahead of you Anders, way ahead of you 😅
🇺🇦
Remember that Ceausescu's end started with a bunch of people whistling at one rally...
Being Politically disengaged helps one to avoid falling out of 10th floor windows
In hindsight, NATO and China couldn't themselves have planned a better plan for isolating Russia and permanently remove them as a geopolitical rival.
I have often wondered whether Russia and China shooting themselves in the foot so badly in recent years was just a coincidence or part of a US strategic scenario. Having the enemy overreach and exhaust himself prematurely is a strategy that has worked countless times for the US, in both peace and wartime.
@@Sonmi-451
Never attribute to malice what can be done by incompetence…
@@Sonmi-451
The USA has shot itself in the foot overseas far more than Russia or China for decades. The USA has pointedly learned nothing by doing it either.
As long as Blinkin runs around the planet meddling in everything making really "clumsy" decisions i can't imagine it being much of a strategy to begin with. Stoltenberg seems like he's demoted to press secretary. Should China take over the reigns for a while I'm questioning if that's a bad thing in comparison.
During WW II propaganda relied on shutting down all communication channels, besides those which were politically correct. It in fact didn't work back then already, as BBC was sending radio messages via the English channel anyways.
These days it's even more difficult to isolate a population from opposite information. Nevertheless Russia tries to shut down opposing media platforms. But the people already tasted free media. And while older people are often stuck, the younger generations know how to get information from other sources aside from the official news.
It's less about NATO planning something. It's more about lost liberties wich Russians already grew accustomed to.
That is not a plan, but an automatic transformation, which happened anyways.
It'll be interesting to see how both forces will change Russia, making the people politically engaged, while taking away a large part of their liberties. On top of that, demanding the people to literally die for the Russian regime.
🤺🤷😉
👍👍 Anders videos are "Quality over Quantity" once again
Thank you and greetings from 🇨🇭👍
This is probably the first time I have to strongly disagree with Anders. Hoping that Russians would develop a sense of agency is a pipedream. Anders is by no means alone in being misinformed and wrong here. I think most western european politicians share exactly the same illusion about Russians.
Russians have been slaves most of their history. They've had only two short periods of being free (couple of decades before the 1917 revolutions, and the other between 1991 - 2012 or so). The slave mentality - disengagement, apathy, fear, self pity, obedience, lack of respect (of themselves and towards others), no sense of responsibility, etc. - is an unspoken, but integral part of their upbringing. They won't just magically dispel the patterns of thought that have been there for their whole life. It's utterly foolish and ignorant to assume so.
Sure there are exceptions, mainly in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Most of these people have left Russia by now, though. In summary, if there will be some kind of "popular uprising" in Russia, you can be pretty damn sure it's not a grass roots movement.
This BTW, is also the reason members of Russian elite do genuinely believe that so called color revolutions are plots organized by CIA or other intelligence services. They simply don't believe in concepts like individual freedom or individual agency. Those things have never played any part in their world. They cannot fathom the meaning of individual freedom because they have never experienced it and neither did anyone they ever knew. For them, it's an abstraction without reality - or a clever propaganda trick the Western elites and governments play.
Hi Anders,
Thankyou.
As a regular follower of Vlad, he referenced you, to also consider watching, which I did.
It is always enlightening to consider other opinions, perhaps as Vlad often point's out this gives balance to the subject under review, offering greater perspective.
I for one have subscribed and look forward to seeing more of your posts
Perth West Australia
You make a good point about the level of disengagement in Russian politics.
One of the reasons that many western analysts gave as to why they believed there wouldn't be a war in Ukraine, is that there was no attempt in Russian media to prepare the Russian public for war. I now understand why this didn't happen - there was simply no need to bring the Russian people "on side", since they have no political agency within Russia.
No need for a 3 day war
Russia has roughly 150mio citizens. Up to now, 150,000 Russian soldiers got killed or extremely hurt in Ukraine - that is 1 out of thousand Russians. Nearly all of them are men - so it is like 1 out of 500 men. Most of them are from a certain age range, so it is 1 out of 250 men out of this group.
That means nearly everybody has gone to school with someone from this group, nearly everybody has worked together with someone from this group, or visited the same sports club...
This war has come close to home very fast...
In the big cities they may not get conscripted but they now realize that they’re becoming a Third World Country. All the interviews on 1420 I’ve seen show Russians very proud of how strong and powerful they are, how “everybody” wants their natural resources. To get lumped in with Africa, India, Iran and China is not what they consider part of their “Royal” lineage. They are “European” white folks gosh darn it.
I interviewed 150+ russians on telegram.. this video 100% resume what i understud from those interviews..
Keep up the great work Anders!
I love the way this man thinks. Excellent analysis
This was outstanding! Excellent video (I may use a clip of it).
That's why all this talk of putin "freezing" this conflict is wishful thinking on behalf of the tankies. Can't freeze a conflict if you are the one profusely bleeding in it. putin lost that alternative when he turned the war hot last year.
The problem in Russia with empowering people politically is that they probably lack the democratic "gene" To what degree are Russians capable of loosing a political argument and then respecting the wishes of the majority? We often see in other fallen dictatorial countries how the new political diversity ends up with factional violence.
Excellent commentary! Since early last year, I've seen some commentators liken contemporary Russian Federation's socio-political order to that of Nazi Germany at its peak of internal power and coherence. That has almost certainly never been the case and is unlikely ever to be the case, and this was observable all along based on cues such as Putin's actions, what he did and did not say, and the actual manifestations of social engagement with his war project. Claims have repeatedly been made about Putin having very high popularity during his decades in power; while it is certainly true that any opposition he has faced has been progressively squelched the evidence for his high popularity has never been particularly compelling or prima facie valid. Good polling is challenging even in the most open societies and the capacity to conduct good social science in general is progressively diminished by oppression.
Civil wars never emerge out of thin air, meaning that, in hindsight it is often easy to identify the moderating or even mediating factors which precipitated the outbreak of conflict. But this does not mean that civil wars have "diagnostic signs" which allow us to predict when, where and how they will occur, or if they will occur at all. In some cases, societies can persist in states of relative instability for years or even decades with disorder and internal conflict which suggest an impending civil war and it never actually happens. All this to say: it is impossible to predict if, when, where or how a civil war will arise in RF. But, the signs that one could arise have been present for quite some time, and those signs grow more pronounced and widespread as time goes on. Western leaders, commentators, etc., and ANYONE who wishes to promote humanity and Ukraine in particular are behooved to recognize this and do what they can to promote a civil war in RF because that is the least bad prospect for this horror coming to an end. The simplest way for any and all of us to promote Putin's downfall is simply to talk about it, but another critical factor is to NOT suffer chauvinistic generalizations about Russians, which I have seen some of the most open-minded, well-informed and well-intentioned commentators do (not you Anders!). Russians who are either opposed to Putin or merely uncommitted need to know that, many or ideally MOST people in the rest of the world do not hate them simply for being Russian and moreover, that people outside Russia harbor hopes for a reformed Russian society which plays a positive, harmonious and generative role in the international order. The same is true for any and all people who are subject to an oppressive regime (e.g., China, Iran, North Korea, etc.). Hate Putin, hate his regime, hate his loyal followers, but DO NOT hate "Russians" in general, and especially those who are not clearly aligned with Putin. That is the single most important thing for all of us to keep in mind at all times and probably the single most effective way a common person can contribute.
As far as "20%" of the RF being opposed to the Putin regime, as you note, it is quite difficult to speculate confidently about such proportions, so I don't think it is particularly edifying to do so. I did want to say though that, 20% of a population being strongly opposed to an authoritarian or even a totalitarian regime would tend to be regarded as a potentially ample fraction to drive a civil war by many scholars. There is no fixed or agreed-upon fraction of a population that is required to provoke a successful revolution, as this can vary depending on a variety of factors such as the political and economic context, the level of support from other social groups, the strength and tactics of the ruling regime, and the availability of resources and external support. Some scholars and activists have suggested that a critical mass of around 3-5% of the population may be necessary to sustain a social movement or political campaign, while others argue that even a small minority can have a significant impact on social change through strategic organizing, mobilization, and media outreach. However, it is important to note that the success of a revolution or social movement is not solely determined by the size of its following, but also by factors such as leadership, organizational structure, ideology, and tactics. Because Putin's decades-long project to "de-politicize" the Russian society was so successful up until Feb 2022, his regime is in some ways quite vulnerable to a potential insurrection or revolt against his power, particularly if that revolt is being led by a confederation of secessionist "Governors" of Federal Subjects (I believe their actual title in Russian is "Head," but effectively the regional administrators of oblasts and other Federal Subjects are equivalent to what we call "Governors" in the U.S.).
I think that it is pretty widely accepted that actual support for and loyalty to the Putin regime is considerably lower in some of the territories of RF comprising historically oppressed and marginalized ethnicities within the Russian Federation (e.g., Tatars, Dagestani, the various indigenous peoples of the North, Siberia, and the Far East, Chechens and other North Caucasus peoples, Roma people, migrants and refugees, etc.), to say nothing of persons whose identity makes them a target for repression by the regime (LGBT persons and political activists among others). My hunch is that there is a very large fraction of the total population of the Russian Federation who dislike Putin and this war intensely, but they are not unified and they lack voice. Those last two factors can change pretty rapidly and I suspect that they have already been changing considerably during the past 14 months.
We might think of a Western society as an iceberg with a substantial fraction of the total mass above the waterline, lets say 50% or even more; meaning that, the actual dimensions of the phenomenon are mostly visible and making the capacity to guess what comes next easier. Because of how disengaged Russians have been for decades, the fraction that is above the waterline is probably an order of magnitude LESS than in "open" societies like ours in the West, so more like 5% or less. The fact that there have been hundreds of anomalous "incidents" inside Russia (some VERY remote from Ukraine), such as fires, explosion, apparent acts of sabotage, assassinations, etc., seem to corroborate this notion that there is actually much more going on "under the waterline" than is immediately visible to anyone, but especially those of us who are neither experts on contemporary Russian society, nor living inside Russia, which is the vast majority of commentators on the war.
Very well thought out and fresh angled take on social problems that are soon to face russia
If you see street interviews in russia, most say they support the war, but most are very scared saying it..... Once they get over that fear things hopefully get moving.
Russian Federation is already in the middle of its downfall. The British empire as well didn’t disappear in one day 😂. But Russian break up won’t take that long 😊
I am a bit surprised that Putin feels like the Ukraine war is worth so much effort... wouldn't it make more sense for him to simply "declare victory", move on, and downplay any future counterattacks by Ukraine? Seems much less risky that way...
That is certainly what the US does with all it's wars.
The funniest thing is Western Putin supporters, who no matter what will continue to see him as a master strategist!
Another ace summary - your thoughts and considerations are appreciated 🙂
Tak Anders!
Anders ,What about Metropolitian Kirill becoming friendly with Putin ?
Isn't this against the Orthodox Faith?
Thank you so much for continuing to upload!
Useful model. Cheers.
Time to decolonise last colonial empire left -Russia
Don't forget that Russia is loosing war and longer this war drugs more pointless will be for people
Aaaahh. the territories were annexed by elections? That is kind of the opposite of losing.
When it comes to engaging the deliberately politically disengaged, I can also recommend following the channels of Vlad Vexler.
I back up that recommendation of both "Vlad Vexler" and "Vlad Vexler Chat" channels.
Excellent channel.
Mr Vexler does not know much about the Russians.
@@Pierluigi_Di_Lorenzo
Except for being a Russian, being part of a Russian family and growing up in that Russian family, regularly visiting the country, speaking the language, following Russian politics as a political philosopher, being immersed in Russian literature/ music/ culture his entire life, etc.
@@Lorenz1973 He and his family moved to Israel when he was 9 years old.
Regularily visiting Russia? AFAIK he visited Russia three or four times in the last 30 years.
He might know a thing or two about Russia, but hardly about Russians.
Good analysis, very informative, and like always both un-biased and thought-provoking.
You mentioned your interview/ conversation with Maxim Katz, I watched it and highly recommend it to others.
Knowing that you only upload new content when you really have something on mind, many thanks for all your work, it helps us to better understand how the things work on a broader spectrum, making it easier for us to draw our own conclusions.
🇺🇸💙💛🇺🇦👍🏻
Mostly it sounds like wishful thinking.
@@Slavic_Goblin Of course it's BS. IMF predicts for 2024 higher GDP growth for Russia than for the USA. Propagandist clown.
@@sixmillionsilencedaccounts3517
I wouldn't take those predictions seriously.
@sixmillionsilencedaccounts3517 Russia producing military supplies and equipment
to Ukraine to be wasted, destroyed or used up makes Russian GDP
look higher but it makes Russians and their economy no better off than
if Russia just blew up those military supplies and equipment in the
parking lots of the factories where they were made.
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine only a low percentage of
Russia's GDP like China's GDP was actual consumer spending
that was of benefit to citizens and now things are worse.
Producing military shells and bullets and military vehicles
to send to Uktaine inflates the Russian GDP
but is of absolutely no real benefit to Russia or to Russian citizens.
As well, it would be foolish to trust any economic information
supplied by the Russian government which lies all the time.
pootin has done a great job of letting the whole world see what Russia really is. Well done clap clap.
Great analysis, thanks. Putin is in the position of "zugzwang." He has to do something, and every move just digs his hole deeper.
Great propaganda you win the Goebbels Award!!!
Impressive clarity as usual. One question; doesn’t Putin always have the option of outright and general repression?
This "psychological analysis" actually explains how human beings tick all over the world, not only Russians.
One little addition to what you were saying.
It not only matters what percentage of Russians who become politically engaged
join "bubbles" other than the Putin bubble
but it also matters how those people are distributed across Russia.
If 17% of all Russians join a non-Putin bubble that may not sound like a high percentage
but if they are to some extent concentrated in certain regions so that in
those regions at least 50% of people are in a particular non-Putin bubble
then that is a serious concern for Putin.
If in particular Moscow and another large western Russian city
both have at least 50% of the population in a particular
non-Putin bubble then even if in the country as a whole
"only" 17% of people are in that particular non-Putin bubble
he will still be in a very difficult position.
Politically disengaged = If you say something you jump out of a window.
Saying nothing is safe.
Thank you! As always, you have put reason, words, and examples to my emotions, and it allows me to better organize my thoughts and think more clearly. Your 11+ minutes here have been more useful than many hours of other people's blather.
Really intelligent analysis! Respect 🫡
Very good and perceptive analysis. I found it amazing how Russians when interviewed say "I don't follow politics" and then scuttle off.
Thank you. Watching from Alaska.
Thank you, Sir. I think the sooner Ukraine wins the better.
Win what they cant
To win we'd need SOME help. Anything! It's been over a YEAR asking to close the sky, send troops or give us planes, or at least stop buying russian oil and West has done NOTHING! Except buy more fossil fuels from russians and sing kumbaya. No embargoes, recent US leak shown there's NO secret training or special forces work underway. Only embassy guards inside... Nothing is done, only talks and minimal supply of ammo and tech that barely covers our losses. Goddamn russia is presiding in UN Security Council. You can't even imagine how much Ukrainians despise the Westerners now. Inaction that killed millions, in Syria, Libya, Myanmar, Ukraine, Georgia and wherever else russians will decide to pillage next.
Thank you Anders! Always great videos!
#RussiaIsATerroristState
Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
Excellent analysis -- your argument has good explanatory power.
If you like worthess generalizations
Yes really helpful thank you. It is doubly a critical moment because not only has Putin reached a point where he has to change the internal Russian political status quo, but the Ukrainians, armed with high morale and some decidedly heavy weaponry, are about to try to defeat his army in a fight to the finish. I keep seeing those young Ukrainian men at the beginning or the war going out to meet the second most powerful army in the world carrying Stingers wearing blue jeans. They had absolutely no chance, yet war is the father of all things.
meantime ... 100 thousand of subscribers
👏🏻😃
Thanks for noticing. Yes, quite a milestone.
As you said, Putin's future depends on his success in Ukraine, where UK, Germany, USA and the strong will of the Ukrainians to stay independent also play a role. Ergo, Putin's future in the hands of foreign powers.
On point, coherent and without sensationalism presented. Thanks for the analysis.
Too bad he just pulls things out of his ass, it has nothing to do with reality.
Wow, I'm very surprised to see someone outside of Russia who has such a great understanding of things inside Russia.
Tak Anders
Your demonstration on the diagram of the change from a one step process to a two step process was very helpful
I think a Venn diagram would fit the situation better, to be honest. The steps do not necessarily happen in order, and the second step may well have happened already.
Always find your video essays informative and thoughtful. Thank you
I really enjoy this mans analysis. He is a smart bugger and his insights are inspiring. I enjoy his talks immensely.
I agree. And Anders can cook the most important points down to 10 mins. where others would spend ½ hour or more.
Another insightful analysis from APN.
Great Vlog, but you are so incorrect when you say Putin taught people to stay out of politics.
That level of disengagement has formed over many generations who learned that you do not disagree with the State or your life becomes difficult. Even at the level of getting gas put into a street, if it doesn't happen as promised, it's probably graft, keep quiet, make a fuss and you might find your laid off at work.
People from the Western Cities are so different to the rest of Russia too. They are more likely to be educated, to have travelled outside of Russia and to use the WWW more. They tend to have a wider perspective than is pushed through the State Controlled media.
Generally you have a very Western perspective on Russia that people can suddenly become interested in politics and throw off generations of inculcation. Recently what we have seen have been protests _to the state_ by mothers of lost soldiers, not protests _against the state_ . After all the State is something that you have to accept as a Russian. And, that is the core of it, for generations Russians have been taught to accept.
Putin is perhaps only interested in keeping the populace on side as, if he becomes unpopular, then those in the Kremlin might try to topple him.
What we might see is a move by Federation States to secede from the Federation, if there is a power vacuum. We must remember that Russia keeps very substantial levels of troops in each State and they are always troops from a different State. If a State like Chechnya secedes then we may see a domino effect.
Thanks for the Vlog 👍
Excellent analysis, Anders. You clearly explain several key points I've been wondering about with regards to the Russian social contract that requires a large segment of the population to remain morally "asleep" and apathetic and uninterested in politics in order for Putin to survive. Thank you.
If the social contract needs to be broken then Putin can also call upon his trump card "Patriotism". If he can successfully play this card then it trumps all political diversity problems in the country. Patriotism is one of those things that is totally engrained into the Russian psyche.
That's the clearest explanation of how "politics" work in Russia that I've heard. Thank you.
Second that ........ An eye opener.
Appreciate your time and insights!
Thought provoking and insightful.
Thanks for your videos, Anders!
Please make more.
Thanks!👍🌞
And that's a big LIKE from me and a SUBSCRIBE as I found you eminently reasonable with excellent arguments. Cheers, Dude.
Really clever piece of analysis (my English!). Congratulations
It took me a while to get my head around this political apathy at the start of the war. I watched street interviews with ordinary Russians and was astounded by their detachment from what was going on.
Probably on the channel “1420” here on YT?!😅
From the average Russian perspective Ukraine is just the last entry on a list of “military operations” in and around its borders Russia has been engaged in in the last 2 decades. I doubt Russian state media give citizens actual info on what’s going on and to what scale. They certainly don’t publish data about human losses and certainly don’t talk about the war crimes their troops commit.
I saw an interview where an old lady categorically denied Russians massacred civilians. “Our soldiers don’t do those things.”
@@pansepot1490 1) Putin haven't invaded a single country that wasn't bombing civilians at Russian borders
2) According to BBC sponsored Mediazona for march 4 there are 16k Russian losses (not including DNR and LNR forces) according to cementeries and reports on social media. Roughly the same amount of people die in car crushes in Russia per year.
3) You will always have bad people in any army and it's impossible to avoid due to human nature. For example recently there was a report about Australian soldiers killing civilians for fun in Afghanistan and forcing inexperienced soldiers to kill pow to get their first kill
4) There's indeed zero evidence that Russians did anything bad to civilian population. I remember one video of civilian getting of bike and sneaking to Russian positions to get shot later. Which was well deserved, especially considering that Ukrainian government gave civilians weapons in first days of war. And there are countless of videos of ukrainian civilians protesting Russian forces, staying Infront of tanks or asking Russian soldiers to put sunflower seeds in their pockets and no hostile actions towards them later
@@pansepot1490 People belive in what they wish to belive.Your comment simple suggest some UkraineWest propaganda sound humoristic for many independent thinkers.
The war started in 2014. Before that they invaded Georgia in 2008. West really helped with "russian reboots" and buying record amount of oil. We had literal Navalny protesters caught as PoWs, even the few russians who protest their own government still go to war because they're just like that.
I said before it is the mother's that will make change there have been sparks but as you say it make take the mother's closer to Moscow, St Petersburg to lose their son's
great work. love your analysis. always a pleasure watching your vids
All you said make sense…
You are one of the most clever UA-camr…
Thank you from 🇨🇦
Liked and a new subscriber for you. Great explanation, always learn a lot from you. Thanks!
I predicted Russia "balkanizing" way back 2014 after the Crimea incident. When a country starts playing imperialistic games in current year Europe you know it doesn't have much time left.
Life is not a video game. Taking crimea did not destabilise Russia. If anything it probably helped it politically. War is a destabilising factor inherent to itself.
@@BobWill1846 How do you land grab without war? Your comment is very shallow, demonstrating your inability to connect the dots.
@@BobWill1846 Only on the most surface levels of detail is your statement correct.
At the time, yes, it did seem to help out Russia.
However, it unleashed a long chain of events which hurt Russia far more than taking a bit of land could help out.
It served as a wake up call to Russia's imperial ambitions, and allowed Ukraine to start gathering strength.
My guess, for some time now, has been that Russia will end up as a cross between Belarus and North Korea. It will collapse into a much smaller country, dependant as a vassal state, upon China, who will keep them poor and struggling, but strong enough to remain a thorn in the west’s flesh. At least, that seems to be what Xi has decided? Note: Chinese electronic maps (their version of Google Maps and so on) have changed the names of regions in the southern areas of the Russian, “Federation,” back to their old Mandarin designations. If that is not a statement of intent, from a nation that is just as desperate as Russia for an injection of, “population,” to curb their demographic crisis, then what is?
@@BobWill1846 : That’s right. “Life is not a video game,” which is why Russia LOSING Crimea is not the, “world shattering,” threat to the world’s stability that Putin so desperately wants you to think it is. There can be no negotiations for peace until the last Russian jackboot has been removed from Crimea. And if that needs to be over Putin’s dead body, so be it. But he’s the only individual on the planet who’s staked his life on keeping it. And the rest of Russia won’t want to sacrifice anything more, once they’ve already lost so much by then. Demagogues can’t buy loyalty, as Putin will find out.
When you call for, “peace,” you really mean, “surrender.” Not happening.
I believe the 'critical mass' threshold is around that 20 percent mark, where things can start to 'boil over'. I'm not sure if there are people in the Kremlin who have idea of the complexities of trying to run a 'populist' dictatorship in a country that is fighting a war that many people don't feel enthuastic about and which is going more or less badly. Thanks for the video!
Too bad we never had 20% against the iraq waaar liies until after the war.
80 \ 20 is a natural number very stable... When that number changes the nature itself balance it again but in the other way
I’ve watched many street interviews with ordinary Russians and when asked what they think about political or policy topics a very common response is “I’m not an expert in such things, so I don’t have an opinion.” This might be fear of expressing an opinion or they are genuinely detached from any political agency or thought.
It just their hidden bias, if you ask them of camera and pretend you are on their side they will say "i enjoy our army killing those hohols!!"
That's literally what PoWs say too. So anyone sniffing hopium that russians are SECRETLY anti-war, we literally catch Navalny supporters who claim to be apolitical yet came to kill us as part of their armed forces. See Zolkin interviews. Those are the "ordinary russians". Like, a dude was arrested for protesting corruption... Still went to war. They're fine with genocide.
Great work as always Anders.
I watch a few Russian UA-camrs and follow some on other Social Media.
Also some who are older and not in risk of mobilization.
It’s always interesting to see their takes on the political climate inside Russia!
Another issue I would absolutely love hearing your take on, is the request for more modern weapon platforms, such as Multirole/Fighter Jets, (Gripen, F16, etc.), Multirole/CAS like attack helicopters, more air defence units, and of course, more Leopard 2.
Is it even realistic for Ukraine to retake Crimea within a foreseeable future unless we supply these platforms???
The Russians are heavily entrenched by now, preparing for Ukraine going on the offense!
My personal opinion is we might as well start making sure Ukraine can receive and utilize such platforms - I’ve learned a long time ago a saying I try to implement in my own life, “having the right tools is half the job" - and I think it’s about time we start focusing on giving Ukraine the right tools…..
As always, thank you for your insight - as always, your perspective is very much appreciated!
Tusind tak for at du bruger tid på at dele dine tanker om krigen med os Anders!
Just my personal opinion on more weapons, no war has ever been lost because of too much firepower.
Agreed and why are Ukraine still waiting for ALL the right tools? This is the free worlds duty to ensure hitler clones get a clear message.” YOU DON’T PUSH THE FREE WORLD AROUND EVER”
My opinion is just leave it as it is and finish off that needless intervention of the states.
I'm curious if Ukraine can develop thermobaric rockets, because NATO doesn't use them. Those would make quick work of Russian trenches.
One deep breakthrough would lead to mass panic, and the collapse of the Russian front, like it did in Kharkiv.
My only concern is the transition time to go from 1980s vintage Warsaw Pact hardware to the 2K generation: the levels of automation might make operational use easy, but maintenance and support an issue. Also, I have no idea how all this different NATO hardware works together. Is there enough compatibility between EU and US hardware to swap between them?
I’m an ex-USAF “wrench bender”, and remember major issues between variants of the same aircraft. Inventory lags could slow operational tempo to a crawl if loses are high.
Well done Anders!
Well, it’s a good thing for everyone that we have individuals who make an effort to be well informed and share their insight with everyone else….
Thank you.
Good points.. I think russia "will" break up.. its inevitable
You are THE MAN! love how well you articulate issues.
You could do whatever you wanted so long as you stayed out of politics _or_ dared to be, I don't know, gay or whatever.
Yeah, for some reason that is seen as a political statement in Russia.
Well, just look at the US where being LGBTQ+ is considered a political statement by a lot of conservatives!
Nobody has the crystal ball but I value Ander's thoughts very much.
Excellent analysis. Great insights 👍
Thanks Anders! A great analysis!
Like a good TV series you left me hanging on your final comments Anders and I am now waiting for the next installment. Please follow up with the instability scenarios. Russia breakup, loss of Belarus support, ultra nationalists displacing Putin, etc
The majority of the Belarussian population are against Lukachenko. Belarus are a Russian vassal state in line with those liberated when USSR collapsed. The East German archieves showed that approximately 15-20% of the population were in some shape or form working for, or were forced informers, against the rest. Given the electronic surveillance world we live in, Belarus probably do not need that high a percentage, but I do not think it are far of. I agree with your requests. The instability scenarios are really interesting. Would not be far fetched that current situation could lead to regions/blocks inside Russia seeking independence.
Personally I have no doubt WE can handle Russia AND China together if we just have some principle we follow. My fear are the collapse of USA or that it falls into facism. You have to be American to call the US system democracy and it have been diluted over time. I truly worry for USA and its population. The 86% of Americans that a few days before the war against Iraq after 9/11 that in a huge demographic survey agreed to the statement: "Should US invade Iraq to revenge 9/11?" are numbers POOtin never would be able to achieve in an open honest survey in Russia. Considering it were a total lie from USA´s side 86% are a scary percentage showing you can get the US population to believe anything in 50 days as long as all media do not do their job. Free media LOL. Democracy naahhh. Lobby laws that judicially would resemble corruption in ANY EU nation: Check!.
POOtin´s efforts to aid Trumps election successfully were a pinnacle in POOtin´s political life for him. Some, not least in the fossil fuel industry, seems very keen on this war to go on forever. WHY do we not step more up and make sure POOtin are crushed in a few weeks in Ukraine? Dark forces in own ranks!
A more detailed analysis of the situation in Belarus and in different states/ regions across Russia would be rather interesting… can’t see many Belarusian people supporting any of their dictator’s actions, also wondering about some of the Russian regions that were disproportionately affected by military recruitment/ draft, various ethnic minorities, economically disadvantaged regions, etc.
-If- when Russia breaks up please alert me in time; I will need to be stocked up on *popcorn* when that happens.
Russia still lives in the 19th century.
Another brilliant analysis well presented. Thanks, Anders!
As usual a super interesting video
I just want to point out that a lot of free space now exists in Russian prisons, and that free space can be maintained if existing prisons are revolving doors for the military. Failing to obey the instructions of a police officer will get you arrested. FSB troops exist for a reason, and it's not to invade other countries.
Has obviously been watching the UA-camr political philosopher Vlad Vexler
Thank you Anders for your very thorough and extremely informative approach to explaining this dreadful war. I appreciate that and I agree with you. Ty again.
What a great description of the potential Russian political options.
Thank you . Always love your insights .
I have Russian relatives and can say, Russian society is quite affected a lot by propaganda. At least the older generation doesn't know what's going on and believes mostly what is said on tv. The younger generation is quite diverse. My wife and some of her friends don't like putin, also not the war. Still they sometimes also cheer with the Russian military as their patriotic mindset does want Russia to succeed in this situation. On a rational basis they anyhow understand there is not so much left to win, especially for the indivual Russian who gets nothing from territorial gains, but a lot of new sanctions and economical problems. And even if they agree that putin is a problem, many are very neutral on making a demonstration, as the consequences are huge and they could be arrested. So for the moment I would say Putin is still stable, it all depends how sanctions will still affect the life of normal russians (which still has not the big effect) and of course if Ukraine can succeede in counter offensives. Both could demoralize russians a lot, who are in the end of course also tired by this conflict (even if they still support putin)
And you are affected by the Western propaganda.😂😂😂
@@virgiliustancu9293 'western propaganda' like Russia invading and killing their neighbours is bad
@@virgiliustancu9293 We are all affected by media, of course. Still it depends how broad you inform yourself and willing to inform yourself (as a lot of people prefer to stay in a filter bubble, which also happens in the west of course). And also how many possibilities you have to inform yourself (plurality of media provided). I have Russian relatives and know the Russian (or Russian state media) view on the conflict very well. Still here I stick with the western one, as the Russian media regarding the conflict just makes no sense (everywhere Nazis but not in Russia) and has simply the job to justify conquering foreign land.
The majority of Russian people support the genocidal war against Ukraine. Until that changes, nothing will change.
@@virgiliustancu9293 So that's the best response you can come up with? I thought that Russian internet trolls doing this as their day job could do much better. I guess not.
What I find most amazing is that in those last 14 months or so Russia suffered losses that way surpass those of their occupation of Afghanistan, which resultet in the end of the Soviet era, but currently the Russian society makes the impression of being braindead or brutalized. My guess is that Putin and his thugs will try to corner the Russian society into compliency.
One of the issues here is that Putin has criminalized the Anti-War movement. It is not possible to criticize, protest, or in any way push back against Putin's policies in regards to the war without risking police harassment and intimidation, arrest and imprisonment (for example, for the man whose daughter drew an anti-war picture), or even worse. Given this, at what point they will actually mobilize against him and organize a cogent Anti-war movement - if at all - is very hard to predict.
That's what makes it especially dangerous for Putin, they have no idea where the breaking point is and they can't monitor public sentiment if people are forbidden from expressing their actual opinions. If it is going to change then it'll happen bit-by-bit at first and then all-at-once.
I imagine that a lot of these disengaged russian already have an opinion or sets of values that they simply do not voice. Therefor it isn't as easy as just engaging the public in politics and convincing them that they should support Putin's agenda, one would also have to convince (a portion of) them that their current beliefs are wrong, which is a very difficult task.
You have some good points there.
B.t.w. welcome in NATO (when those other two countries get their *sses together), we have been keeping the chair warm for you, Swedish sisters and brothers, since 1949. Hälsning från Danmark.
"We" have noticed that there is a generation factor in Russian people's perception of the war, in two events the younger mostly male population (Who would be most affected by the war)fled Russia and Russia has tried to make this more difficult for the upcoming mobilisation (Putin will have to mobilise or he will lose anyway), the younger females have been seen protesting against the war, the middle generation seem to accept their fate without having an alligance to Putin (....and are more likely to be ineffective as they are majorly addled on vodka) and the older generation (Who are unlikely to be involved in the war) are mostly Putin supporters, so a swing is needed in the younger generation, which if mobilisation turns up in Moscow or St Petersburg elite might be easily achievable, obviously success on the battlefield is important for Ukraine in the coming months to rachet the pressure on Putin by a number of degrees, a significant decline in the Russian economy would help matters as well which is also not far from the reality, with a little bit of luck Russia could be in a major pickle by July or August!?!
Why do you think that Russian beliefs are wrong but yours are right?
Do you think that NATO population should rise up against their leaders and make them leave middle east? Do you think Palestine should take back their territory from Israel and restore their borders? Do you think that USA should stop sending weapons to Taiwan and respect Chinas sovereignity and borders?
@@yellowtunes2756 Taiwan....It's about money. Europe is in the process of building factories that can produce chips when they are ready, cool the interest for Taiwan.
But who is right Taiwanese are ethnically Chinese but people in a country have the right to secede. It has happened in the history of my own country
@@jesperrasksuldrup1541 eastern Ukranian regions also should have right to leave Ukraine, don't you think?
It will be interesting to see the impact of returning soldiers from Ukraine. It was these people telling the stories to friends and families that ended the Soviet war with Afghanistan and the US war with Viet Nam
Yes, it will have a huge impact on Russian society going forward.
Yes, but those were ethnic Russians from Moscow and St Petersburg. Returning Chechens or Siberians are not going to influence the political discourse.
@@normanstevens4924
Do you remember what happened after the USSR left Afghanistan?
The losses in Afghanistan was NOTHING compared to the losses Russia is facing in Ukraine!
There’s a very high chance that this could result in the end of the Federation, or at least regions attempting to go for independence!
There are now thousands of people who know how to use weapons who can choose to get angry at Putin, Ukraine, or another scapegoat. At some point they could organize an uprising together. For now, they're following orders even if it means killing their own men for retreating.
They don't sound enthusiastic in the intercepted phone conversations Ukraine has released or the public appeals for better gear. (Complaining about gear is one of the few forms of protest that doesn't risk a long prison term.)
It really help understand the lack of Russian people reactions; I guess I will stop expecting anything from them, except for their complicity.
I read an article written by a Russian trying to explain the mindset of the average Russian.
He mentioned a rally Navalnyj held back when he was running. A very excited guy came up to Navalnyj after his speech and told him, "if you become President, then I will definitely vote for you" - and no, it wasn’t poor translation of what had been said!
I’ve heard an old Russian saying that goes something like this: "Never wish death upon the Tzar", and while it to most sound as support of the Tzar/regime, the implicit meaning/unspoken part, is that the replacement might easily be even worse!
@@gorillaguerillaDK And this nicely explains Russia's high rate of alcoholism and death rate - signs of despair. I imagine China is deliberately not selling them fentynal if they are propping up Russia.
It seems young Russians quickly got an opinion on the war when there was a mobilization. Complicit until they might suffer.
Well made video. Helps me take in different ideas and opinions.
You are a breath of fresh air. I enjoy your calm explanation of these trying times.
Great video
Concise, clear and thoughtful. Thank you. It's refreshing to have a channel discuss this topic without the click bait.
This guy's face IS click bait!
Politically disengaged or Putinically engaged.
Good stuff (as always). Thank you, Anders