Having it ended with a truce mediated by President 🥔 of all people leaves me feeling like I watched an entire thriller season and then the finale was replaced with an episode of Sponge Bob.
This is not an attempted coup. The army is not going to flip and if Wagner tries to drive on Moscow, Russian airpower will destroy his columns. It's an extortion plot to extract from Putin what Wagner wants, hence the deal.
Prigozhin is just like a cartel leader or mob boss. Cartel leaders don't retire, they lead the cartel and are successful at killing their rivals or they are dead or imprisoned. Prigozhin is still alive and not imprisoned, so he must be succeeding at the moment. Every day that passes and he is still alive and not imprisoned means he still has real power to hurt Putin.
The key question for 18 months, where is the Russian air force? Prigozhin spread his forces along 1200km of motorway. This can not be done with an active air force
Maybe, just maybe, the Russian goverment didn't want to kill other Russians before other options had been explored. I mean I know that's against all the 'orc' and 'Putler' rhetoric, but it could be tru.
It was literally shot down in the process? 6 helis down. The russian air force cannot approach anti-air systems. That's why they fire long range American missiles that US blocks Ukraine from receiving but lets russia make with their components from afar, out of reach of air defenses. And they ONLY hit large buildings. Like the house across me.
There was an airforce, Wagner shot down something like 5 russian helicopters and a surveillance plane. One more reason why this will likely have consequences, even if the drama dies down for now. Looks like both Wagner and Russian forces didnt openly engage in combat otherwise. At least not on a large scale, there was some shootouts reported.
I'm also interested in the concequences for the CAE, Lybia, Chechnya, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh etc. The places where Wagner is active beyond Ukraine. It would be apreciated to get your opinion on how the current situation will effect the these.
I read a lot of comments below, I have two questions for some of them: 1. why don't you watch the video before commenting? 2. before commenting, make sure understand what Anders is saying
The current situation, less than an hour after the video was uploaded, still doesn't make sense to me. It appears Prigozhin gave up his effort, is going to dismantle his army and will go to exile in Belarus, without getting any reward for doing so. Yes, there's a promise he won't be prosecuted, but we all know a promise is worth virtually nothing in Russian politics. So, I'm still watching out for any advantage Prigozhin got for agreeing to the peace deal. Are there forces or conditions which could have killed him and are unaware to the public or just me? Did he get something the public doesn't know yet? Did it take this run to Moscow to make him aware that Putin doesn't like him anymore? I guess I have to wait quite a while to find out.
The Wagner group fights for money from the corrupt leadership of Moscow. Money is of cause part of the deal negotiated by Lukashenko. But I guess it will become a problem to make a fair distribution of money to the other military leaders in the Wagner group. The relationship here will be difficult to handle.
It will also be interesting to see how the people around Putin deal with what Prigozhin said about the real reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. That cannot be undone. Moreover, his mercenaries also shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane. If Putin were to accept that so easily without consequences, he would look completely weak. It is also absolutely incomprehensible why Putin needed Lukashenko for the alleged deal. Was there no one in Russia who could do this, no common acquaintance who could talk to Prigozhin?
I doubt Russia's stance will change in any way. Prigozhin tried to overthrow his government, that's treason. Nobody listens to a traitor to their country as that person clearly doesn't care about the wellbeing of the country. Probably said all those those reasons for the invasion of Ukraine because they perfectly line up with the Western position and was hoping for Western support. Which of course is wishful thinking. Who says Russia's lying about the war while having a paid military in the war? If he really thought Russia was lying, he would have had his army fight alongside Ukraine from the beginning, then his words would have value. Currently his words are just propaganda. We may not like Putin but Western leaders don't want to deal with that scum running Russia.
He straight up. Without mincing words. Came out and said the entire war is built on lies. That the reasons for it are entirely fallacious. It’s a shocking thing to see a high level Russian saying things like this. It’s so incredibly damaging to the Russian cause in Ukraine. Like how can Putin keep this guy around after this? He destroyed the entire framework of justification for the ukraine invasion.
Can you elaborate on this idea that Wanger "shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane?" I had not heard that yet. Not saying it is false, just curious if you can point toward sources? With things happening fast in Russia and so many voices claiming so many things, it is wise to be skeptical about most things you hear. In this case, I had heard another source ("Inside Russia," who is a native Russian living in exile in Tashkent, so he avails himself of a broad-spectrum of Russian language sources) say that there had been "one clash confirmed" between Putin regime forces and Wagner forces with the attack having been conducted with aircraft of some sort, but no mention of any craft shot down.
If this was planned it wasn't planned long ago as Wagner was fighting in bakhmut and suffering heavy losses until very recently. I wonder if Prigozhin was not just afraid of getting assassinated or jailed and decided his best chances were with a desperate risky attempt at building a bargaining position to bail himself out of trouble.
On the battlefield, things are bad, but in the economy, it's all wrong and it's an open question whether Russia has enough foreign currency for the next three months. If Russia "runs out of money" then collapse is a reality. Prigozhin is a thoroughly unpleasant person and should be thrown in jail for the rest of his life, but he is not stupid. He won't start something that he knows will trigger a one-way ticket from a 6th floor window. What happened was carefully planned, although from the outside it might look foolish and a fight he couldn't possibly win, I'm not so sure the goal of the operation was to win (i.e. take Moscow). And frankly, what the Moscow authorities did also seemed rehearsed. I'm not sure Prigozhin was alone in this either. But what if the purpose of the operation was to help Putin create a political "Off-Ramp" to stop the war in Ukraine? Putin can say that he is sure that Russia will win a just victory in Ukraine, but he has to pull the army back to Russia to secure the motherland? The blame will fall on Soigu and Gerasimov and all those who have "lied" to Putin. I'm curious to see what happens in the next few days.
None of it looked rehearsed to me. Aircraft were shot down. Roads were torn up. Fuel storage tanks were set on fire. No doubt the events will allow more flexibility in making dramatic decisions, but it's unlikely that it was a choreographed show. It's really unlikely that having everyone "in the know" could result in the secret being kept. It only takes one lucky loyalist to kill a lot of people, escalating to larger conflict.
Essentially you want Russians to overthrow their government which would cause immense suffering for the Russian people? Yeah people are apathetic for not destroying their country. If we want Ukraine to win, it won't be because we hoped Russians woke up and destabilized their home.
many sees Putin as the less of evils. in 1917 there was a very strong dislike of the tsar. not so much towards the current tsar today it seems. but many are tired of the war. something might be cooking, and first signs today
Hello from Canada. I would gladly watch if you go for an deeper analysis of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine’s options. Thank-you very much for sharing your thoughts with us, I know I am better informed because of you.
This is insane. What is his angle? Why would he stop, this is not going away for proggy. Or was it a fake all along, i didn't think it was, but now i'm no longer sure. Man this war is weird.
Makes more sense if you think of it in more medieval/early renaissance terms. Prighozin is a mercenary leader who reminded his boss what happens if you start messing with te paychecks or his company. Google Sack of Rome.
@@TheStephaneAdam that makes sense for the show of force. But the stirring the pot with him calling out the lies and going against the narative is kinda out of place. And he really screwed over the people who came out in support of him, they will be in a heap of trouble and will make anyone think twice of supporting him the next time. And there will be a next time. Unless this was a setup organised with putin himself, this is not over for proggy and he will be someone they will want to get rid of at some point in the future.
@@TheStephaneAdam Yeah people still view Russia as a superpower, and this stuff is confusing from that perspective. If we instead imagine Russia is more like Congo or something, then this makes more sense.
Putin fled like a coward straight away. He was straight out of Moscow on his plane to St Petersburg. Zelenskyy on the other hand stayed with his country and people when they were attacked by Russia. I agree that it was a false flag on Wagner. It was concocted. Prigozhyn would probably be even worse than Putin but you are right that he seems to be appealing to a lot of Russians. Looks like Prigozhyn will be falling from the window of a tall building soon now that he backed down? Ukraine should cross its troops on all the dried-up reservoirs and switch the taps off upstream temporarily. Great opportunity to get across and surprise the Russians in the South. None of those reservoirs are mined and we have had a month of fairly hot weather in Europe recently. UK and Germany both have droughts. Other countries may be similar. The thing I am most concerned about right now is that Russia has mined the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and plans to blow it up. This would be devastating because it would cause a humanitarian crisis that Ukraine would need to deal with and would delay the counter-offensive. That whole area would become a dead zone. Several hundred thousand people would need to evacuate. The water passing by would be contaminated. And food prices would immediately shoot up which would be especially bad for poorer countries in the world leading to more conflict. I think Ukraine really needs to consider sending in special forces and Western nations and NATO may need to assist them to take back Zaporizhzhia and prevent a critical situation.
@@steveclark8304 Something I read a long while back. Not sure it was attributed there either. It is not a chiastic construct like "when the going gets tough, the tough get going" but I have remembered it all this while. Glad you appreciate it as well!
@@austenhead5303 True, as things panned out. Over a 24 hour period. Russians can't even manage a proper mutiny or coup. My remark was triggered by Anders's opening remark, check again. Coup is preferred to mutiny nowadays, even as in failed coups, in Africa and South+Central America for example.
@@amar-2 But it wasn't even a failed, pathetic coup. It wasn't any sort of coup. Prigozhin didn't try to topple the government, didn't so much as say a word to that effect, he just had beef with Shoigu and Gerasimov and threw a temper tantrum. This was a temper tantrum with tanks.
The main thing, narrator is pathological russophobe, so his opinion is far from truth It was a loyalty test for russian government etc, it isn't a mutiny , just show..
@@187Rajah Nah. This whole mess was worthless as a "coup", but it did do some damage to Russia's morale and reputation. The Russian brass wouldn't have staged this for such an unnecessary reason. Or at all, really. This was weird, but it was real. I think that either Prigozhin just cracked and had a temper tantrum on his own, and he got big-headed enough after all of Wagner's success to expect much more support than he got, OR Western alphabet agencies got to him somehow. He was spewing Ukrainian talking points in the lead-up to this and demonstrably lying about the situation at the front, so Western involvement doesn't seem unlikely. Either way, good riddance. He's been unstable for months. Glad he's gone. Maybe Lukashenko can get him a shrink. Agree on the russophobic commentator though. Westerners live in their own little bubble where Russians are perpetual villains from Rocky. What else is new? I don't even bother anymore.
Pff as soon as somebody is doing shit in Russia they say it is the West faul. In the End alot of people in the Russian system are just idiots . So I guess the bad West thing works for brainwashed russians . But in the West we just take some Popcorn and enjoy the Show.
One more point on well planned: they started the attack on Friday night when mot of the upper ranks of the military, FSB and Kremlin were drunk. They had to collect at the Kremlin while hammered and sit there and work as they slowly got hungover. That has to help a lot.
This was fascinating. I think you're spot on about the planning, and I'd add that I think it means that wagner had a contingency plan for this for a long time, and the Russian military had none. I think it also means that they would have not done this had they any fear of reprisal. Or in other words, Putin has already lost effective control over some groups Hoping the struggle continues, for the sake of Ukraine.
This has been boiling for quite some time. Prigozhin booked great results and criticized the Russian army for not arming them properly. (while the Russian army in turn wanted to integrate Wagner into the army) And when at some point they had to retreat somewhere they noticed the road back was covered in mines. So when they started to demine the roads, they got attacked by a Russian army unit. Wagner quickly defeated that unit but the commander wouldn't say who gave the order to attack him. So Prigozhin was in a situation where he gets attacked by the military top. So he needed to get Putin's attention while at the same time keep his troops together. It was a bald and desperate move but in the end it paid off. Now he can go to Belarus, away from the claws of the military and he keeps his army and independence. To say that Putin lost control and somehow his power is crumbling is absolute nonsense. This was not a march against Putin, there were no plans to overthrow the government or anything either. Prigozhin holds zero political power in Russia....he is just as easily disposed of by Putin in the same way he built him into what he is today. This was a cry for attention and maybe rightfully so. So now he keeps his position and men and he will be stationed in Belarus where the Russian army can't mess with him and as a result he now probably reports directly into Putin instead of the military command, keeping his independance. Putin has not lost control of anything, there is no coup and there is not gonna be one either. He also doesn't have cancer like they claimed and Russia is not gonna collapse or whatever. So sorry, but there is no struggle. No vultures are circling above the Kremlin either.
@@hiufgterde Your perspective is interesting, and I can see how that could be the perspective of many. However... Had this happened in the time of Stalin, or any other Russian or Soviet leader, all involved would be dead. Had this happened in the US, today, all involved would be under arrest and charged with treason. Putin isn't showing restraint here, he's showing weakness, even by western standards. That's not new, though. The open criticism by a military leader of the civilian leadership is grounds for dismissal in any army in the world. Unless it's Putin.
You can be sure that calls were being made and alliances formed as that column was driving toward Moscow...just in case. It's likely Prigozhin knows there are thoughts on the minds of those in the power centers of Russia that a coup could be in the works if Putin is seen to be weak. Prigozhin's feint towards Moscow was a catalyst to getting those power centers moving in that direction. This is probably only the opening salvo in a struggle that might takes weeks to play out. I think if Ukraine wins back Crimea it's over for Putin.
What is more likely to happen now is that the traitors that have exposed themselves, will find sudden deaths by the fsb the comming weeks. Nobody is ever going to be stupid enough to support proggy ever again. And there won't be anyone else left that wants to rebel against putin.
It was clear that no matter what this war would be the end for Putin's regime since there was no way they could get out of it unless they won and there has never been a chance of them winning. It's however shocking that it's happening this quickly.
Tentative alliances had to have been formed before this started. Prigozhen never had the strength to win alone. He can't possibly be that bad at calculating odds. All the regular Russian military units just gave way before him. He just walked right into the military headquarters in Rostov. He stopped to talk to people.
Sir, I firmly believe that your perspective is right on the money! It is very refreshing to hear a clear and concise analysis of what could be happening based on what little real information is getting out. Thank you! I subscribed to your channel and look forward to more of your videos.
Certainly was interesting. It is not unusual to see a two strike win over a Prime Minister. Even highly popular ones. The first one is unexpected to the general public and rebuffed but damages is done and credibility damaged. The second challenge works. Arguably Australia's most popular Prime Minister fell to the second strike. Putin has damaged himself in his broadcast. He shat his pants in public and fled Moscow. Prigozhin was to be punished to the full extent but no it is OK if he goes to Belarus. I am wondering how much he & Wagner will be paid off. It is a tradition for Empires to bribe foes to go away. It is a closer drive for Prigozhin next time - just 8 hrs 36 mins instead of the 12 from Rostov. Fun fun fun.
Hi Anders. You did a great job on DR today! It’s always such a pleasure to get your perspective on how the war unfolds! Tak for at du gider at bruge noget af din fritid på at dele din indsigt med os andre - du er en rigtig nørd, og jeg mener det på den allermest positive måde!
The idea that this would have required advance planning makes sense to me, however what doesn’t seem to have been planned is what would happen after Rostov. One would think Prigozhin would have contacted people in advance to make sure of their support. Or maybe he thought he had backing but his backers chickened out?
Excellent takes. I agree, the situation is far from over and a catastrophe for Putin. There's no coming back from this anymore. This will keep getting worse if Putin does not squash this insubordination. But so far he seems extremely weak, incompetent and clueless. Absolute humiliation.
@@Khairuldean-vz4mp we all wished he would nuke moscow as soon as convoy approached it or at least nuke Rostov and Voronezh earlier... But there's time for everything. It's not IF but when russia will be nuked at this point.
@@KasumiRINA - How can Putin Nuke or even bomb Rostov when it’s the HQ for the entire Ukraine war? All the Russian high command are in Rostov, along with all their military vehicles including tanks, heavy weapons, grads, radar equipment, computer installations, technology gear, IT stuff, intelligence gathering junk, and tons and tons of guns and ammunition. Sure, good idea, that would end the war. Plus….Isn’t there an old Russian joke about bombing Voronezh? Something akin to shooting oneself in the foot.
Putin looked useless in his TV address to castigate the potty mouthed chef's treason, what's he going to say now, can potty mouth trust Belarus's leader, etc., etc.!?!
Prigozhin has sowed the seed of doubt. Prigozhin isn't desperate, time on his side. Not being trapped into a lengthy siege on Moscow was a smart move. Prigozhin just needs the air force on his side and then he will try again. Something else which people have not picked up on is Prigozhin has trapped Putin. Putin was going to blame Shoigu BUT Putin has now publicly backed Shoigu...
This raises a whole set of new questions 1 should Prigozhin be “safe” in Belarus?That’s a complete joke! 2 what will happen to the Wagner group both the ones that are still in Ruzzia/Ukraine but also the ones that are in the rest of the world 3 How could the Wagner Group take Rostov so easily 4 Now with many of the lies about the war out of the box in Ruzzia…how can people continue to pretend to support it 5 who is really behind this..surely not only the Wagner group so will a “post Hitler-July1944 nation wide hunt now take place 6What did Putin actually do yesterday…Was he on the plane that left Moscow (if he was he will not only appear weak but also a coward) 7 will Ruzzia now just continue this insane war or will they have to withdraw and somehow recouperate?
The west should begin to work on their response on a Nuke hitting Ukraine (Kiev probably) from Bielorussia. A Nuke who was conveniently displaced there a few weeks ago and that was "captured" (cough!) by Prigozhin's force because of a "disagreement" (cough! Cough! ) with Putin and Loukachenko. And here you have a Nuke launched on Kiev by a "bandit" from a foreign country. Dr. NO would be proud.
@@Christopher_Giustolisi Yeah, I seem to recall that being about Ukraine breaking the Minsk agreement and NATO breaking THEIR assurance that it wouldn't come any closer for, oh, the twentieth time. Try again.
It was not about a coup. Prigo only wanted to be out of prison and make/keep billions of money he makes from his african mines. Also he want the russian ministry of defense financing his soldiers (that would have stopped 1st July). I guess Putin payed a lot for this deal.
Love you stuff. Funny, you Americanized Wagner. I know you're fluent in Danish, Russian, English and I'd guess you gotta have some German too. Most people in the U.S./U.K. use the German pronunciation for Wagner. Then again you're a multilanguage god :-)
Thank you for another great explanation Anders. #russiaisaTerroristState Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
Good commentary thanks Anders. Prigozhin is a charismatic warlord. It’s difficult for me to imagine he’ll simply just give it all up and go quietly into exile but that may well happen. Why wouldn’t he opt for retirement in Belarus? I guess we’ll soon see.
Dear Anders, once again thank you for your brilliant analysis. Every normal person was hoping for more than the end, which we see so far. There's a lot of open questions and a lot of fog. And congratulations to your pronunciation of russ. names, у вас отлично получается!
Thanks for your quick reaction to these events in Russia. Your opinion on this is always very valuable. It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the foreign affairs of Russia considering the presence of the Wagner group in many countries.
It looks like it didn't develop. An enormous hole has been created, that's for sure. That insight about Putin sounding like a broken record is spot on.
After 24 hours of mutiny mayhem in Russia, the crisis seems to have fizzled out. Wagner group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's next destination is reported to be Belarus after a deal was reached with that country's strongman leader, Alexander Lukashenko.
I didn't initially think of this - that way - that this is well planen - but I must admit, the mere fact that Prigozhin is not in jail or killed - points to the fact, that Putin got court off guard ! - It seems Prigozhin has better intel than Putin - The odd for Prigozhin keep rising
I've heard that Putin is in this insulated bubble with his sycophants telling him what he wants to hear, doesn't use the internet either. Typical dictator scenario, so he doesn't really know everything that's going on. If I was Prigozhin I'd be wary about being poisoned and stay away from high rises. I've never seen such an overt coup oriented advance turned around like this. Strange.
If I were Prigozhin, and I had failed in my attempted takeover of Moscow, I would simply withdraw with my mercenary forces to a more secure area. And await Putin's next move. Knowing that whatever action he took, he would also be having to defend against a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. And that I had the ability to severely disrupt that. And potentially lose the whole war for Putin - A kinda 'nuclear option'. Which I'm sure every true Russian patriot could appreciate.
it had to be planned to SOME degree, but it couldn't have been planned all that well, because otherwise he wouldn't take a deal in the first few hours of the revolt. I find it rather weird that he took the deal so quickly. If it would have been planned so well, I just don't see Prigozhin taking a deal. Something super unexpected must have happened for Prigozhin to take a deal like this. It's all rather weird.
@@vyli1 I think it is what it appears to be. A coup. Its not the first in recent Russian history either. In 1991 communist hardliners did the same, and failed. Yeltsin was more successful in 1993 during the October Coup. I think it was pretty well planned. TV stations were hacked, and put out pro-Prigozhin propaganda. He's been selling himself to all sides. The pro war/anti war/anti corruption crowd (he does run Putin's internet research agency, after all). And he was able to effectively just walk into Rostov.
How secure would Prigozhin be in Belarus? A country completely in the hands of Russia so if (when) Putin wants to get rid of him-what on earth would stop him?Belarus police?Gimme a break!
Russia had USA as enemy for long time and for many reasons. NATO was born in 1949 as counter-force to USSR expansion and today under different circumstances the mission is still valid. USA needs a secure Europe for its own security and economy, while Russia represents a threat to the the region. It is fair to assume USA and Ukraine bet on inner turmoil inside Russia and Prigozhin could be chance to become a heavy weight inside Russian apparatus. Furthermore Russian population counts 145 millions of which 40 millions are minorities. There is generational divide within Russia, younger generations prefer to be part of the West and have non desire to fight for an empire..
Many thanks for the good analysis Anders. Having half a foot in Eastern Europe, with both Ukranian and Russian friends, your analysis sounds spot on. Tak tak
Have you ever noticed the parallels between Putin and Czar Nicholas II? They are both short. Neither is/was a particularly dynamic speaker. Both were losing wars against smaller countries better equipped and led. In both cases the morale of the army was poor. Sounds like another situation of history rhyming.
![[UA] NAVI проти G2 Esports | Blast Premier Fall Final](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/QWlIm4FGESQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Having it ended with a truce mediated by President 🥔 of all people leaves me feeling like I watched an entire thriller season and then the finale was replaced with an episode of Sponge Bob.
Exactly! Who even writes this script? 😄
😅😅😅 very good 👍 👏 👏
This is not an attempted coup. The army is not going to flip and if Wagner tries to drive on Moscow, Russian airpower will destroy his columns. It's an extortion plot to extract from Putin what Wagner wants, hence the deal.
That sums it up perfectly.
Very good description.
I don't know Sponge Bob, but it sounds a big marshmallow, à lá the Michelin Man.
Prigozhin is just like a cartel leader or mob boss. Cartel leaders don't retire, they lead the cartel and are successful at killing their rivals or they are dead or imprisoned. Prigozhin is still alive and not imprisoned, so he must be succeeding at the moment. Every day that passes and he is still alive and not imprisoned means he still has real power to hurt Putin.
The Russian upper class are all mafiosos!
Well put.
The official explanation doesn't tell us the real deal....
Don't worry. There is no problem in Russia that can't be fixed with a little Novichok or a push from a window.
Pringles just blue balled everyone, he was this close to greatness.
Also his expiration date is due soon
"Pringles" L M F A O
He could have been then next Lenin instead he will be forgotten like General Rokossovsky who took Berlin to end WW2 in Europe.
Priggy is pure calculating evil. He's worse than Putin. I wouldn't want to see him with the nuclear weapons codes.
@@Contrajoeas a former restauranteur/caterer maybe Pringles actually makes a bit of sense
He will die a natural death in exile.
Wagner got “security guarantees”. From Putin. What a relief.
Just stay away from all open windows - just to be sure.
The key question for 18 months, where is the Russian air force?
Prigozhin spread his forces along 1200km of motorway. This can not be done with an active air force
Maybe, just maybe, the Russian goverment didn't want to kill other Russians before other options had been explored. I mean I know that's against all the 'orc' and 'Putler' rhetoric, but it could be tru.
Wallowing in a puddle of it's own cowardice
In the workshop for maintenance and overhaul.
Where else?
Operational rates always have been horrendous in russian federation.
It was literally shot down in the process? 6 helis down. The russian air force cannot approach anti-air systems. That's why they fire long range American missiles that US blocks Ukraine from receiving but lets russia make with their components from afar, out of reach of air defenses. And they ONLY hit large buildings. Like the house across me.
There was an airforce, Wagner shot down something like 5 russian helicopters and a surveillance plane. One more reason why this will likely have consequences, even if the drama dies down for now.
Looks like both Wagner and Russian forces didnt openly engage in combat otherwise. At least not on a large scale, there was some shootouts reported.
Wagner getting to Moscow quicker than Russia could get to Keiv LMAO 😂😂😂
Yeah, they seem to have marched hundreds of kilometers in one day?!? Something's not making sense...
No one was trying to stop them
@@OttomanSultana Okay, but didn't they call it "the March" of something?
@@OttomanSultana All right. Thanks for explaining it in its military context.
Ends up nothing happened, west critics are so stupid and baseless
😂😂 Every one of your predictions turned out nonsense...the beginning of the end🤣🤣
Stupid programme. Out of reality and facts. Only depends on the poor imagination of the author.
Looks like Prigozhin is off to Belarus making most of what you said not really applicable.
I'm also interested in the concequences for the CAE, Lybia, Chechnya, Mali, Nagorno-Karabakh etc. The places where Wagner is active beyond Ukraine. It would be apreciated to get your opinion on how the current situation will effect the these.
I read a lot of comments below, I have two questions for some of them:
1. why don't you watch the video before commenting?
2. before commenting, make sure understand what Anders is saying
The current situation, less than an hour after the video was uploaded, still doesn't make sense to me. It appears Prigozhin gave up his effort, is going to dismantle his army and will go to exile in Belarus, without getting any reward for doing so. Yes, there's a promise he won't be prosecuted, but we all know a promise is worth virtually nothing in Russian politics.
So, I'm still watching out for any advantage Prigozhin got for agreeing to the peace deal. Are there forces or conditions which could have killed him and are unaware to the public or just me? Did he get something the public doesn't know yet? Did it take this run to Moscow to make him aware that Putin doesn't like him anymore? I guess I have to wait quite a while to find out.
Could be he was doing that to get a better deal, but overestimated his support by elites/population and agreed to a shitty one.
If the nukes Russia was moving there are actually still there that could be what Prighozin is after in Belarus
The Wagner group fights for money from the corrupt leadership of Moscow. Money is of cause part of the deal negotiated by Lukashenko. But I guess it will become a problem to make a fair distribution of money to the other military leaders in the Wagner group. The relationship here will be difficult to handle.
Well, we know what they want us to know.
Wagner has given up already lol you shill ....
It will also be interesting to see how the people around Putin deal with what Prigozhin said about the real reasons for the invasion of Ukraine. That cannot be undone. Moreover, his mercenaries also shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane. If Putin were to accept that so easily without consequences, he would look completely weak. It is also absolutely incomprehensible why Putin needed Lukashenko for the alleged deal. Was there no one in Russia who could do this, no common acquaintance who could talk to Prigozhin?
^^^ All of this Russian leaders need to be strong Putin now looks weak and Prigozhin looks incredibly smart and strong that cant stand
Shows how isolated Putin is.
I doubt Russia's stance will change in any way. Prigozhin tried to overthrow his government, that's treason. Nobody listens to a traitor to their country as that person clearly doesn't care about the wellbeing of the country. Probably said all those those reasons for the invasion of Ukraine because they perfectly line up with the Western position and was hoping for Western support. Which of course is wishful thinking. Who says Russia's lying about the war while having a paid military in the war? If he really thought Russia was lying, he would have had his army fight alongside Ukraine from the beginning, then his words would have value. Currently his words are just propaganda. We may not like Putin but Western leaders don't want to deal with that scum running Russia.
He straight up. Without mincing words. Came out and said the entire war is built on lies. That the reasons for it are entirely fallacious. It’s a shocking thing to see a high level Russian saying things like this. It’s so incredibly damaging to the Russian cause in Ukraine. Like how can Putin keep this guy around after this? He destroyed the entire framework of justification for the ukraine invasion.
Can you elaborate on this idea that Wanger "shot down four helicopters and a Russian army plane?" I had not heard that yet. Not saying it is false, just curious if you can point toward sources? With things happening fast in Russia and so many voices claiming so many things, it is wise to be skeptical about most things you hear. In this case, I had heard another source ("Inside Russia," who is a native Russian living in exile in Tashkent, so he avails himself of a broad-spectrum of Russian language sources) say that there had been "one clash confirmed" between Putin regime forces and Wagner forces with the attack having been conducted with aircraft of some sort, but no mention of any craft shot down.
😂😂 you’re updated.. the revolution it’s over!
Wake up! 😂😂
You post the date on screen, things are moving so fast, you need to post the time also, lol
If this was planned it wasn't planned long ago as Wagner was fighting in bakhmut and suffering heavy losses until very recently. I wonder if Prigozhin was not just afraid of getting assassinated or jailed and decided his best chances were with a desperate risky attempt at building a bargaining position to bail himself out of trouble.
Thanks for the quick reaction!
On the battlefield, things are bad, but in the economy, it's all wrong and it's an open question whether Russia has enough foreign currency for the next three months. If Russia "runs out of money" then collapse is a reality.
Prigozhin is a thoroughly unpleasant person and should be thrown in jail for the rest of his life, but he is not stupid. He won't start something that he knows will trigger a one-way ticket from a 6th floor window.
What happened was carefully planned, although from the outside it might look foolish and a fight he couldn't possibly win, I'm not so sure the goal of the operation was to win (i.e. take Moscow).
And frankly, what the Moscow authorities did also seemed rehearsed.
I'm not sure Prigozhin was alone in this either.
But what if the purpose of the operation was to help Putin create a political "Off-Ramp" to stop the war in Ukraine?
Putin can say that he is sure that Russia will win a just victory in Ukraine, but he has to pull the army back to Russia to secure the motherland?
The blame will fall on Soigu and Gerasimov and all those who have "lied" to Putin.
I'm curious to see what happens in the next few days.
None of it looked rehearsed to me. Aircraft were shot down. Roads were torn up. Fuel storage tanks were set on fire.
No doubt the events will allow more flexibility in making dramatic decisions, but it's unlikely that it was a choreographed show. It's really unlikely that having everyone "in the know" could result in the secret being kept. It only takes one lucky loyalist to kill a lot of people, escalating to larger conflict.
Awesome analysis. Definitely showing the signal in the midst of a lot of a lot of noise. Very timely.
Big problem for Putin. Prizoghin has done great damage. Even pro Russia people admit it.
I think we can't underestimate the apathetic culture in Russia. It makes it hard to rally people to anything en mass.
Essentially you want Russians to overthrow their government which would cause immense suffering for the Russian people? Yeah people are apathetic for not destroying their country. If we want Ukraine to win, it won't be because we hoped Russians woke up and destabilized their home.
Unless you have a weak leader they dont like that shit
many sees Putin as the less of evils. in 1917 there was a very strong dislike of the tsar. not so much towards the current tsar today it seems. but many are tired of the war. something might be cooking, and first signs today
Apathetic people wont defend you either though
Why would we rally if both Wagner and army are both our citizens?
Hello from Canada. I would gladly watch if you go for an deeper analysis of the current situation in Russia and Ukraine’s options. Thank-you very much for sharing your thoughts with us, I know I am better informed because of you.
Very interesting developments.
The beginning of the end for Putin? This will not age well. Check back in 6 months.
I like to get my info from multiple sources but I generally wait for your views before forming a opinion.
So devastating it was over in a few hours. Hopefully the Russian people will get the final push they think is needed to finsh the job.
This is insane. What is his angle?
Why would he stop, this is not going away for proggy.
Or was it a fake all along, i didn't think it was, but now i'm no longer sure.
Man this war is weird.
Makes more sense if you think of it in more medieval/early renaissance terms. Prighozin is a mercenary leader who reminded his boss what happens if you start messing with te paychecks or his company.
Google Sack of Rome.
@@TheStephaneAdam that makes sense for the show of force.
But the stirring the pot with him calling out the lies and going against the narative is kinda out of place.
And he really screwed over the people who came out in support of him, they will be in a heap of trouble and will make anyone think twice of supporting him the next time.
And there will be a next time.
Unless this was a setup organised with putin himself, this is not over for proggy and he will be someone they will want to get rid of at some point in the future.
@@TheStephaneAdam Yeah people still view Russia as a superpower, and this stuff is confusing from that perspective. If we instead imagine Russia is more like Congo or something, then this makes more sense.
Putin fled like a coward straight away. He was straight out of Moscow on his plane to St Petersburg. Zelenskyy on the other hand stayed with his country and people when they were attacked by Russia. I agree that it was a false flag on Wagner. It was concocted. Prigozhyn would probably be even worse than Putin but you are right that he seems to be appealing to a lot of Russians. Looks like Prigozhyn will be falling from the window of a tall building soon now that he backed down?
Ukraine should cross its troops on all the dried-up reservoirs and switch the taps off upstream temporarily. Great opportunity to get across and surprise the Russians in the South. None of those reservoirs are mined and we have had a month of fairly hot weather in Europe recently. UK and Germany both have droughts. Other countries may be similar.
The thing I am most concerned about right now is that Russia has mined the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and plans to blow it up. This would be devastating because it would cause a humanitarian crisis that Ukraine would need to deal with and would delay the counter-offensive. That whole area would become a dead zone. Several hundred thousand people would need to evacuate. The water passing by would be contaminated. And food prices would immediately shoot up which would be especially bad for poorer countries in the world leading to more conflict. I think Ukraine really needs to consider sending in special forces and Western nations and NATO may need to assist them to take back Zaporizhzhia and prevent a critical situation.
As was once said: A revolution is a revolt that succeeded, a revolt is a revolution that failed.
Who said that? Very profound.
@@steveclark8304 Something I read a long while back. Not sure it was attributed there either. It is not a chiastic construct like "when the going gets tough, the tough get going" but I have remembered it all this while. Glad you appreciate it as well!
This was neither. A mutiny, at most.
@@austenhead5303 True, as things panned out. Over a 24 hour period. Russians can't even manage a proper mutiny or coup. My remark was triggered by Anders's opening remark, check again. Coup is preferred to mutiny nowadays, even as in failed coups, in Africa and South+Central America for example.
@@amar-2 But it wasn't even a failed, pathetic coup. It wasn't any sort of coup. Prigozhin didn't try to topple the government, didn't so much as say a word to that effect, he just had beef with Shoigu and Gerasimov and threw a temper tantrum.
This was a temper tantrum with tanks.
Hello. While this was not a deathblow it has wounded Putin deeply and it is only a matter of time before the sharks come for him. Putin is done.
Complicated issues explained succinctly, accurately, and timely such that a layman can understand! Much appreciated!
The main thing, narrator is pathological russophobe, so his opinion is far from truth
It was a loyalty test for russian government etc, it isn't a mutiny , just show..
@@187Rajah
Let's go for nuclear war
That's will be more news worthy
agreed
@@187Rajah Nah. This whole mess was worthless as a "coup", but it did do some damage to Russia's morale and reputation. The Russian brass wouldn't have staged this for such an unnecessary reason. Or at all, really.
This was weird, but it was real. I think that either Prigozhin just cracked and had a temper tantrum on his own, and he got big-headed enough after all of Wagner's success to expect much more support than he got, OR Western alphabet agencies got to him somehow. He was spewing Ukrainian talking points in the lead-up to this and demonstrably lying about the situation at the front, so Western involvement doesn't seem unlikely.
Either way, good riddance. He's been unstable for months. Glad he's gone. Maybe Lukashenko can get him a shrink.
Agree on the russophobic commentator though. Westerners live in their own little bubble where Russians are perpetual villains from Rocky. What else is new? I don't even bother anymore.
Pff as soon as somebody is doing shit in Russia they say it is the West faul. In the End alot of people in the Russian system are just idiots .
So I guess the bad West thing works for brainwashed russians . But in the West we just take some Popcorn and enjoy the Show.
So, here we are, April 2024, the Wagner attack was insignificant.
One more point on well planned: they started the attack on Friday night when mot of the upper ranks of the military, FSB and Kremlin were drunk. They had to collect at the Kremlin while hammered and sit there and work as they slowly got hungover. That has to help a lot.
I was really hoping you were going to upload about this. It is absolutely insane ...
Wagners achievements- took around 9 months to get Bakhmut 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣. Just one small city that much time. Wagner PMC 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
This was fascinating. I think you're spot on about the planning, and I'd add that I think it means that wagner had a contingency plan for this for a long time, and the Russian military had none. I think it also means that they would have not done this had they any fear of reprisal. Or in other words, Putin has already lost effective control over some groups Hoping the struggle continues, for the sake of Ukraine.
24 June 2023 / Wagner
This has been boiling for quite some time. Prigozhin booked great results and criticized the Russian army for not arming them properly. (while the Russian army in turn wanted to integrate Wagner into the army) And when at some point they had to retreat somewhere they noticed the road back was covered in mines. So when they started to demine the roads, they got attacked by a Russian army unit. Wagner quickly defeated that unit but the commander wouldn't say who gave the order to attack him. So Prigozhin was in a situation where he gets attacked by the military top. So he needed to get Putin's attention while at the same time keep his troops together. It was a bald and desperate move but in the end it paid off. Now he can go to Belarus, away from the claws of the military and he keeps his army and independence. To say that Putin lost control and somehow his power is crumbling is absolute nonsense. This was not a march against Putin, there were no plans to overthrow the government or anything either. Prigozhin holds zero political power in Russia....he is just as easily disposed of by Putin in the same way he built him into what he is today. This was a cry for attention and maybe rightfully so. So now he keeps his position and men and he will be stationed in Belarus where the Russian army can't mess with him and as a result he now probably reports directly into Putin instead of the military command, keeping his independance.
Putin has not lost control of anything, there is no coup and there is not gonna be one either. He also doesn't have cancer like they claimed and Russia is not gonna collapse or whatever. So sorry, but there is no struggle. No vultures are circling above the Kremlin either.
@@hiufgterde Your perspective is interesting, and I can see how that could be the perspective of many. However... Had this happened in the time of Stalin, or any other Russian or Soviet leader, all involved would be dead. Had this happened in the US, today, all involved would be under arrest and charged with treason. Putin isn't showing restraint here, he's showing weakness, even by western standards. That's not new, though. The open criticism by a military leader of the civilian leadership is grounds for dismissal in any army in the world. Unless it's Putin.
Ends up nothing happened, west critics are so stupid and baseless
@@tomsmith3045I expect to see massive purges in the coming days. If that doesn't happen, pootin is a dead man.
well 6 hrs later the chess peices change again Anders , but still think Putin is in trouble
Thanks for the video!
Another video that has aged really well!!
Preghozin goes to Belarus, takes over army, invades Ukraine from north and takes Kiev, if successful he gets to rule Belarus?
Absolutely ROCKS .....makes weird. but. 'perfect' scene. !!
When your Chef is cooking up a Batch of Revolution….!
Man, its most nonsensical thing i heard all day.
You can be sure that calls were being made and alliances formed as that column was driving toward Moscow...just in case. It's likely Prigozhin knows there are thoughts on the minds of those in the power centers of Russia that a coup could be in the works if Putin is seen to be weak. Prigozhin's feint towards Moscow was a catalyst to getting those power centers moving in that direction. This is probably only the opening salvo in a struggle that might takes weeks to play out. I think if Ukraine wins back Crimea it's over for Putin.
What is more likely to happen now is that the traitors that have exposed themselves, will find sudden deaths by the fsb the comming weeks.
Nobody is ever going to be stupid enough to support proggy ever again. And there won't be anyone else left that wants to rebel against putin.
It was clear that no matter what this war would be the end for Putin's regime since there was no way they could get out of it unless they won and there has never been a chance of them winning. It's however shocking that it's happening this quickly.
Yes
Tentative alliances had to have been formed before this started. Prigozhen never had the strength to win alone. He can't possibly be that bad at calculating odds.
All the regular Russian military units just gave way before him. He just walked right into the military headquarters in Rostov. He stopped to talk to people.
@@recoil53 Whoever he made aliances with seemed to have backed down when it came to walk the walk - so that´s why it ended like this
Really love your analysis... Thanks.
Thank you so much. I've been so eager to hear your take.
Sir, I firmly believe that your perspective is right on the money! It is very refreshing to hear a clear and concise analysis of what could be happening based on what little real information is getting out. Thank you! I subscribed to your channel and look forward to more of your videos.
As of yesterday, RESISTANCE IS POSSIBLE!
Please....wagner group in convoy march towards moscow in plain sight.... dont you think the Russian army would easily take out.... laughable
Really hope you’re right that it’s the begging of the end
Certainly was interesting. It is not unusual to see a two strike win over a Prime Minister. Even highly popular ones. The first one is unexpected to the general public and rebuffed but damages is done and credibility damaged. The second challenge works. Arguably Australia's most popular Prime Minister fell to the second strike.
Putin has damaged himself in his broadcast. He shat his pants in public and fled Moscow. Prigozhin was to be punished to the full extent but no it is OK if he goes to Belarus.
I am wondering how much he & Wagner will be paid off. It is a tradition for Empires to bribe foes to go away. It is a closer drive for Prigozhin next time - just 8 hrs 36 mins instead of the 12 from Rostov.
Fun fun fun.
Hi Anders.
You did a great job on DR today!
It’s always such a pleasure to get your perspective on how the war unfolds!
Tak for at du gider at bruge noget af din fritid på at dele din indsigt med os andre - du er en rigtig nørd, og jeg mener det på den allermest positive måde!
He’s a far higher class of expert than most TV news usually have. DR, though, is one of the best mainstream news outlets though.
Vi nerder må stå sammen, uansett hvilket fag det må være :)
@The_ZeroLine I completely agree with both of your arguments.
@@The_ZeroLine
Yes, it's no wonder that Reporters Sans Frontiers put the Scandinavian countries high in the freedom of press and credibility scale .
@@Imwer
Enig!
Well planned, sure, impressively so. The end for Putin, fantastic, keep fantasizing
Perhaps Prygozhyn is trying to place himself like Kadyrov, in that he has an independent force that works with Putin on his terms
Didn't he have that already?
@@paulhargreaves1497 he had but he got an ultimatum that wagner would be under the mod from july 1st
Appreciate your analysis 🎉
The idea that this would have required advance planning makes sense to me, however what doesn’t seem to have been planned is what would happen after Rostov. One would think Prigozhin would have contacted people in advance to make sure of their support. Or maybe he thought he had backing but his backers chickened out?
Pure propaganda. This guy earns a living being paid tax dollars to completely mislead you.
Excellent takes. I agree, the situation is far from over and a catastrophe for Putin. There's no coming back from this anymore. This will keep getting worse if Putin does not squash this insubordination. But so far he seems extremely weak, incompetent and clueless. Absolute humiliation.
It's hard to look strong when you're being fed false information. He's been stupid enough to surround himself with yes men.
@@E3ECO
Let's go for nuke then
@@Khairuldean-vz4mp we all wished he would nuke moscow as soon as convoy approached it or at least nuke Rostov and Voronezh earlier... But there's time for everything. It's not IF but when russia will be nuked at this point.
@@KasumiRINA - How can Putin Nuke or even bomb Rostov when it’s the HQ for the entire Ukraine war? All the Russian high command are in Rostov, along with all their military vehicles including tanks, heavy weapons, grads, radar equipment, computer installations, technology gear, IT stuff, intelligence gathering junk, and tons and tons of guns and ammunition. Sure, good idea, that would end the war. Plus….Isn’t there an old Russian joke about bombing Voronezh? Something akin to shooting oneself in the foot.
Putin looked useless in his TV address to castigate the potty mouthed chef's treason, what's he going to say now, can potty mouth trust Belarus's leader, etc., etc.!?!
"It does not really make that much sense..."
That comment says it all. 😮😮 ❤
(Hope you are well.)
Mr Putin looks as if he is very annoyed by what is going on.
I'm interested in how annoyed the Oligarchs are.....but they're probably just counting their money.
Will you do update on what happened. I'm literally just lost what is going on??????
Prigozhin has sowed the seed of doubt.
Prigozhin isn't desperate, time on his side. Not being trapped into a lengthy siege on Moscow was a smart move.
Prigozhin just needs the air force on his side and then he will try again.
Something else which people have not picked up on is Prigozhin has trapped Putin. Putin was going to blame Shoigu BUT Putin has now publicly backed Shoigu...
Yeah, he's gonna regroup in Minsk. LOL.
Prigozhin just needs a little time to gather his forces from Ukraine and Africa
He is a dead man walking!
@@wideyxyz2271 "HE" can be Prigozhin, Putin or both!
@@wideyxyz2271that's right. All putin's assassins need do is pierce Prigozhin's 25,000 man army. So simple
On the other hand, having an "internal threat" can also play into Putin's advantage.
This raises a whole set of new questions
1 should Prigozhin be “safe” in Belarus?That’s a complete joke!
2 what will happen to the Wagner group both the ones that are still in Ruzzia/Ukraine but also the ones that are in the rest of the world
3 How could the Wagner Group take Rostov so easily
4 Now with many of the lies about the war out of the box in Ruzzia…how can people continue to pretend to support it
5 who is really behind this..surely not only the Wagner group so will a “post Hitler-July1944 nation wide hunt now take place
6What did Putin actually do yesterday…Was he on the plane that left Moscow (if he was he will not only appear weak but also a coward)
7 will Ruzzia now just continue this insane war or will they have to withdraw and somehow recouperate?
The west should begin to work on their response on a Nuke hitting Ukraine (Kiev probably) from Bielorussia. A Nuke who was conveniently displaced there a few weeks ago and that was "captured" (cough!) by Prigozhin's force because of a "disagreement" (cough! Cough! ) with Putin and Loukachenko. And here you have a Nuke launched on Kiev by a "bandit" from a foreign country. Dr. NO would be proud.
Thanks for your quick, yet sharp evaluations. Much appreciated!
Security guarantees? I think we all know how much Russia´s security guarantees are worth.
No. We don't. Explain. When has Russia been the first party to not keep to a deal they made?
@@austenhead5303 when they attacked Ukraine. Remember that war? The war that is currently going on?
@@Christopher_Giustolisi The day befor Russia invaded Ukraine Putin said they would not.
@@austenhead5303 Do you really need a list or are you just another Russkie licker?
@@Christopher_Giustolisi Yeah, I seem to recall that being about Ukraine breaking the Minsk agreement and NATO breaking THEIR assurance that it wouldn't come any closer for, oh, the twentieth time. Try again.
Such a shame prigozhin bottled it, i had the popcorn all ready for a good night in front of the TV....gutted.
Me too😢
They can't even organise a coup 😞
It was not about a coup. Prigo only wanted to be out of prison and make/keep billions of money he makes from his african mines. Also he want the russian ministry of defense financing his soldiers (that would have stopped 1st July). I guess Putin payed a lot for this deal.
Not sure it was a coup attempt
It was never meant to be a coup
@@01blaval So Putin dug up the roads leading to moscow for a laugh ?
The chickens have flown the coop
The oligarchs fled the coup.
Prigozhin was a disappointment. Still, who knows...
"Давайте не поддаваться спокойствию и сохранять панику!" :D
"Товарищи революция отменяется, а теперь дискотека" )))
Devastating sure....they already ran away....But great prank tho ! 😂
Always enjoy your videos
I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin’s offered him Belarus if he takes out Luka. 🤔🤔
Who could have guessed that mercenaries cause problems. You are literally giving up your monopoly on violence.
Oddest pronunciation of Prigozhin I've ever heard.
@Anders Puck Nielsen • I was hoping you would do a video on this. Thank you once again for your very helpful analysis. 👍
It's totally coordinated. Wagner group was so easy to move to Moscow unlike those who really rebelled from Belgorod.
This vlog is one of the best to understand what is going on in the Russia Ukraine war! Thanks from Sweden Anders!
Love you stuff. Funny, you Americanized Wagner. I know you're fluent in Danish, Russian, English and I'd guess you gotta have some German too. Most people in the U.S./U.K. use the German pronunciation for Wagner. Then again you're a multilanguage god :-)
Thank you for another great explanation Anders.
#russiaisaTerroristState
Victory, Freedom, Full Reparations, and all of Ukraine's Land for Ukraine, this includes Donbas and Crimea! 💙💛
Coincides with my gut feeling, except that Prigozhin may have highly place allies in the Russian hierarchy, which I didn't think of.
Good commentary thanks Anders. Prigozhin is a charismatic warlord. It’s difficult for me to imagine he’ll simply just give it all up and go quietly into exile but that may well happen. Why wouldn’t he opt for retirement in Belarus? I guess we’ll soon see.
Any update to this video from you Anders?
Best analysis on UA-cam, as usual. Thanks for sharing so quickly!
Hi!, Anders, I used to live in Rude/ dk, great time! even meet the Dansk soldiers in exercise! while camping! *** =)
Dear Anders, once again thank you for your brilliant analysis. Every normal person was hoping for more than the end, which we see so far. There's a lot of open questions and a lot of fog.
And congratulations to your pronunciation of russ. names, у вас отлично получается!
Акцент действительно лёгкий, едва уловимый. Было бы интересно услышать как Андерс произносит фамилию Борщёв и умеет ли он к месту материться.
Thanks for your instightful observation.
Thanks for your quick reaction to these events in Russia. Your opinion on this is always very valuable. It will be interesting to see the effects of this on the foreign affairs of Russia considering the presence of the Wagner group in many countries.
Was he expecting more forces/units to come out and support him? He seemed to give up pretty quickly...
It looks like it didn't develop. An enormous hole has been created, that's for sure. That insight about Putin sounding like a broken record is spot on.
The FACT that Putin FLED Moscow for St. Petersburg shows he's a COWARD who doesn't TRUST his Security Forces!
After 24 hours of mutiny mayhem in Russia, the crisis seems to have fizzled out. Wagner group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's next destination is reported to be Belarus after a deal was reached with that country's strongman leader, Alexander Lukashenko.
I didn't initially think of this - that way - that this is well planen - but I must admit, the mere fact that Prigozhin is not in jail or killed - points to the fact, that Putin got court off guard ! - It seems Prigozhin has better intel than Putin - The odd for Prigozhin keep rising
I've heard that Putin is in this insulated bubble with his sycophants telling him what he wants to hear, doesn't use the internet either. Typical dictator scenario, so he doesn't really know everything that's going on. If I was Prigozhin I'd be wary about being poisoned and stay away from high rises. I've never seen such an overt coup oriented advance turned around like this. Strange.
If I were Prigozhin, and I had failed in my attempted takeover of Moscow, I would simply withdraw with my mercenary forces to a more secure area. And await Putin's next move. Knowing that whatever action he took, he would also be having to defend against a major Ukrainian counteroffensive. And that I had the ability to severely disrupt that. And potentially lose the whole war for Putin - A kinda 'nuclear option'. Which I'm sure every true Russian patriot could appreciate.
I also initially thought that this outcome discredits Prigo, but now I think that it discredits both equally!
it had to be planned to SOME degree, but it couldn't have been planned all that well, because otherwise he wouldn't take a deal in the first few hours of the revolt. I find it rather weird that he took the deal so quickly. If it would have been planned so well, I just don't see Prigozhin taking a deal. Something super unexpected must have happened for Prigozhin to take a deal like this. It's all rather weird.
@@vyli1 I think it is what it appears to be. A coup. Its not the first in recent Russian history either. In 1991 communist hardliners did the same, and failed. Yeltsin was more successful in 1993 during the October Coup.
I think it was pretty well planned. TV stations were hacked, and put out pro-Prigozhin propaganda. He's been selling himself to all sides. The pro war/anti war/anti corruption crowd (he does run Putin's internet research agency, after all). And he was able to effectively just walk into Rostov.
How secure would Prigozhin be in Belarus?
A country completely in the hands of Russia so if (when) Putin wants to get rid of him-what on earth would stop him?Belarus police?Gimme a break!
Russia had USA as enemy for long time and for many reasons. NATO was born in 1949 as counter-force to USSR expansion and today under different circumstances the mission is still valid. USA needs a secure Europe for its own security and economy, while Russia represents a threat to the the region. It is fair to assume USA and Ukraine bet on inner turmoil inside Russia and Prigozhin could be chance to become a heavy weight inside Russian apparatus.
Furthermore Russian population counts 145 millions of which 40 millions are minorities. There is generational divide within Russia, younger generations prefer to be part of the West and have non desire to fight for an empire..
A " Revolution in Russia " :D
What a big dud for the NATO media 😄
Prigozhin first got their hopes high, and then gave them an anti climax 🤣
Many thanks for the good analysis Anders.
Having half a foot in Eastern Europe, with both Ukranian and Russian friends, your analysis sounds spot on.
Tak tak
Have you ever noticed the parallels between Putin and Czar Nicholas II? They are both short. Neither is/was a particularly dynamic speaker. Both were losing wars against smaller countries better equipped and led. In both cases the morale of the army was poor. Sounds like another situation of history rhyming.
The russians cant finish anything, not even a coup....it's like I am rewatching the final season of game of thrones...
Prigogine travels from Minsk to Moscow in sealed railway car to assume the reins of power.