In 2004 I bought a Rolex submariner for 4k and I sold it for 16k a month ago. I also just bought 3 more submariners for 10k each. Ready for prices to go up and make some cash
News Flash...The newest 2020 Rolex Submariner Ref 126610LN (Date) is already selling for 14-15K on the grey market. These prices will fluctuate over time as did the GMT Batman, Pepsi and others but in my opinion the price point the grey market sets will set the baseline for value as it's near impossible to obtain steel sport models at retail. The value for the Sub will continue to rise and will be double the current price in 2030. I was fortunate to buy the new 2020 Sub at my local AD and didn't even think twice about it because I know what it will be worth, that's not why I bought it however I wear it everyday because what's the point you can't take it with you.
Anyone have any ideas how much the discontinued gold submariners will be worth in 5 10 years. I paid 21k for my 2017 gold sub with blue bezel in 2018. In 4 years it has almost doubled in value
The new Submariner 41 will be a super star and THE modern Submariner to own after all the dust settles after a few years. It’s a $15.5k+ watch now and won’t go anywhere but up over the years. That said, luxury watches are a lifestyle and NOT a investment.
Some of your assumptions could be hopelessly wrong. Inflation does not always get lower over time, it depends on economic circumstances, it could feasibly rise to 10% whatever. Also there is no guarantee that the demand for Rolex watches will stay as strong for ever. Competition from other watches, new concepts, economic depression can always take place. Even shares in what were perceived to be blue chip companies have gone bust.
@@whereRbearsTeeth pal it was a surprise offer I had to put it on a no interest credit card. I used the fact I could alway sell it down the road and make a profit let me take the watch doesn't make me a bad guy. You sound jealous that I had such a good relationship with my AD I got the Submariner you can't. For your information the watch is on my wrist and paid for.
Just speaking from historic figures, prices have increased average by 50% per decade the past two decades, and that’s not even across the board Dollar value obviously is a significant factor here but about a decade ago a sub retailed for around 5500 in Europe, now it’s around 7800 depending on the country and VAT respectively DD WG, 20k now 30k SS Daytona however 9k now 13k Just bringing this up because they are priced in CHF and converted accordingly across the globe to be somewhat even and deter watch tourism to some extent, as could be seen in the Brazil currency shopping bubble where Rolex was the only luxury brand to remove prices from displays and adjusting them daily
Hey that’s hard for me to say because I would have to see the watch in person to determine condition which plays a huge difference in the flat 4 values.
I'm looking for my 1st rolex. So are you saying a new 2030 sub will cost that much? Or a 2021 sub will be worth that? Some 2021s are selling for 11-15k now. What will an older submariner be worth at that time, like a 2019, 18, 17, 16 etc??
Talking about a brand new Sub in 2030. The current subs will definitely cost a lot less but it’s possible that they will run more than they do now. It’s hard to pin point a value on the 2019 because it will depend on whether the sudden interest in the maxi-case returns. For example, I personally prefer the maxi-case and it’s squared off lugs. I think there’s a group of people that think the same. I’m sure that group will grow over time. If you’re looking to get a new one on the grey/used market, I’d recommend waiting for this year’s Rolex releases to launch so the interest shifts to those models: probably the explorer 2. Hopefully that will momentarily soften the sub market. I still think the 116610 is a better buy in terms of grey/used market value than the 126610. The 126610 might have a little more depreciation before it continues to climb but that’s unlikely with the 116610 because it has been discontinued.
Every video I watch I always think this is pretty much bark and jack... having you highlight that at the start of the vid put a smile on my face, thanks for making my weekend with another awesome upload:)
Thank you so much for enjoying it! Was a bit of an extra edit for barely a few seconds. Now I see it was worth it! Maybe it's because I gel with his videos so much that I subconsciously strive towards that. Not a bad thing I guess! :)
I’m looking to buy my first automatic and although I like Rolex and fancy a no-date submariner, the grey market prices are quite outrageous. In central Europe a decent 14060 is ~€8-9K and 114060 ~€10-11K. I guess the price will always go up on these discontinued models so there is a low risk of losing money, and perhaps even cash in, but is it a good idea to buy at these prices? I guess if you want one and sleep on it, you will soon end up paying a grand or two more.
Yeah I think the 114060 is a good buy now at low 10s in EU. Maybe there’s a little room for negotiation there. I see them holding strong, they will probably appreciate at least a grand every year or two. Even if they suddenly don’t appreciate, I don’t see them losing any value despite the watches getting older.
Good point, but it’s hard to estimate what the percentage shifts will be across the years so I just took a rough approach. I think it’s better to overestimate in this case than underestimate but naturally it’s not all that accurate.
Interesting video! Totally agree that it would be nice if the price did not inflate too much since I would love more people to be able to afford a Rolex. However, as you mentioned right now it is a supply issue anyway so Rolex can do almost anything they want
I purchased the 16610lv Submariner 50th anniversary back in 2003 to pass down to my son. It has been sitting Gavin the safe for 18 years now. I have seen prices going as high as $50,000 for an unworn watch. I will give it to him when he graduates from college. He is only 14 now. I wonder how much it will be worth in 10 years?
Great perspective! But way too simple to make a prediction..... You havent taken into the consideration that its nearly impossible to buy subs at msrp, and the market price has far exceeded your prediction on particular models already 10 years before your prediction time. Some sport models has already doubled like the new kermit. And we have no idea the hype will still be there in 10 years. It might be at retail 18k but 12k market price, or 18k retail 30k+ market value.
Thanks Yi! Very true and very possible. The reason I didn’t take the actual premium values into consideration is because it’s quite based on hype and I don’t know if it’s mathematically possible to predict hype. At least I’m far from capable of that. Also another thing that would play the most crucial role is people having the same continued craze for these particular models, which over a 15 year period I think is unlikely. Just 4-5 years ago we had all these models sitting on shelves at the Rolex AD. Another thing is some new brand could come in and sweep up would be waitlist Rolex customers: like Zenith. So yeah you’re absolutely right but I could not have made any calculations for super inflated market value. It would have seemed like a wild unbelievable and blind guess. :)
IMHO, a classic Rolex Submariner will hold its value and likely double in value over a ten year period. Government’s manipulate currency and as of 2022, inflation in the US is imminent.
Rolex watches are not investments. They are luxury goods. If I was interested in appreciation of the investment I would invest in something else. If you are worried about the cost of this item or if you need this item to appreciate for you then maybe you can't afford it?
Definitely not an investment! I hope prices fall as well. Regardless of how much wealth a person has, it’s simply not possible to say that one doesn’t care after you cross tens of thousands of dollars. Whether people like it or not, the state of the market is the result of people treating these watches as investments. Bad practice, I agree. I hope it stops. Thanks Glen :)
Well if you look at the price evolution of Rolex steel sports watches in the past 5-10 years it’s easy to see that they are great investments. For example, Submariner no-date (various references) has increased in grey market/second hand 50% in price over past 5 years. There are only very few stocks or other investments that can provide that kind of return on investment. Even real estate not and the initial investment is considerably higher.
Basically start buying "affordable" vintage Rolex now, because the market for those will explode.....as a new Rolex SS sports watch in 2030 will not be an option for about 97% of us
I don’t think that’s predictable at the moment because we don’t know how the next iteration of the submariner will be received. Depending on that, the current one could be more or less desirable. If it’s a 2021 NOS then it will definitely be worth more than a new 2030 one at retail. Can’t say how much yet though.
That’s tough to say. We will definitely have revisions of all sports models by then. I think the general public would’ve outgrown their fascination with Rolex and their waitlist nonsense by then as well. But regardless I think they’re gonna do well. Maybe not wildly above retail tho. The 116610LV Hulk might sit around the mid 30k USD. Just a random estimate though. I’d say Daytona is too difficult to say because not always have they been desirable as they are atm.
Speculation, the market is due for a correction. There will be a market collapse definitely before 2030 so just wait and pick them up if you can then. Submariners are produced in quantities not a limited or small numbers, the problem is the grey market buys then thru ADs and control the market. And a lot a people that have access to Ads are also buying and flipping.
Quite possible but it would probably occur in the later half between now and 2030. It’s very difficult to gauge whether a stock/real estate market correction will affect the watch market. Most people believe it won’t since these are items of an asset class like art, not bound to most markets. Regarding production, I believe Rolex is trying to produce a lot less steel and more precious metals.
People already safe Queen their Rolex. Guys In London don’t wear Rolex because of theft. Collectors don’t wear vintage pre-1985 watches (Rolex) 1) they are increasing in value 2) risk of adding wear to a watch 3) not reliable, water resistant, or accurate. We always see collectors on UA-cam or at RedBar events. These guys only bust out their collection pieces for pics. They no longer wear these old timepieces as many use to back in the mid 2000’s when they were cheap and a dime a dozen.
The New Standard Time Nato Straps : standardtime.myshopify.com/collections/all
In 2004 I bought a Rolex submariner for 4k and I sold it for 16k a month ago. I also just bought 3 more submariners for 10k each. Ready for prices to go up and make some cash
14000 USD was offered to me for a 116610LN 2017
I denied ,they will go much higher by 2030
News Flash...The newest 2020 Rolex Submariner Ref 126610LN (Date) is already selling for 14-15K on the grey market. These prices will fluctuate over time as did the GMT Batman, Pepsi and others but in my opinion the price point the grey market sets will set the baseline for value as it's near impossible to obtain steel sport models at retail. The value for the Sub will continue to rise and will be double the current price in 2030. I was fortunate to buy the new 2020 Sub at my local AD and didn't even think twice about it because I know what it will be worth, that's not why I bought it however I wear it everyday because what's the point you can't take it with you.
You’re winning the game. Also glad to hear it’s used properly as a watch!
And the return i get on my savings now is virtually zilch
Anyone have any ideas how much the discontinued gold submariners will be worth in 5 10 years. I paid 21k for my 2017 gold sub with blue bezel in 2018. In 4 years it has almost doubled in value
Bought my Hulk in 2010 right after the release from DavidSW for $7400. Now…….. well you get it.
That was a fantastic decision!
I don't think of my two Rolex es as an investment more something I enjoy and hopefully keep their worth in years to come
It would be awesome if everyone did this tbh!
Rolex Watch, is a physical and real investment! Where as a Stock, Fake, hypothetical! Rolex is a Solid foundation, investment! Good Analogy!
Thanks Simon :)
The new Submariner 41 will be a super star and THE modern Submariner to own after all the dust settles after a few years. It’s a $15.5k+ watch now and won’t go anywhere but up over the years. That said, luxury watches are a lifestyle and NOT a investment.
It’s already the submariner to own, commanding the most a new sub ever did on the grey market. I wonder where it can go from here for SS watch.
My submariner is a lifestyle investment
Some of your assumptions could be hopelessly wrong. Inflation does not always get lower over time, it depends on economic circumstances, it could feasibly rise to 10% whatever. Also there is no guarantee that the demand for Rolex watches will stay as strong for ever. Competition from other watches, new concepts, economic depression can always take place.
Even shares in what were perceived to be blue chip companies have gone bust.
Yep that’s why I reiterated a couple of times that my assumptions were based on things continuing the way they are at the moment.
Back last Thanksgiving my Ad offered me the new Submariner. I wasn't even looking for one. But I bought it thinking of it as a ten year Bond.
You are what is wrong with the watch community
@@whereRbearsTeeth pal it was a surprise offer I had to put it on a no interest credit card. I used the fact I could alway sell it down the road and make a profit let me take the watch doesn't make me a bad guy. You sound jealous that I had such a good relationship with my AD I got the Submariner you can't. For your information the watch is on my wrist and paid for.
Prices for a 41mm Sub date is now $19k and higher
Just speaking from historic figures, prices have increased average by 50% per decade the past two decades, and that’s not even across the board
Dollar value obviously is a significant factor here but about a decade ago a sub retailed for around 5500 in Europe, now it’s around 7800 depending on the country and VAT respectively
DD WG, 20k now 30k
SS Daytona however 9k now 13k
Just bringing this up because they are priced in CHF and converted accordingly across the globe to be somewhat even and deter watch tourism to some extent, as could be seen in the Brazil currency shopping bubble where Rolex was the only luxury brand to remove prices from displays and adjusting them daily
Hi is the Rolex Kermit Flat 4 mark 1 a good buy now at around usd26.5k? Thanks
Hey that’s hard for me to say because I would have to see the watch in person to determine condition which plays a huge difference in the flat 4 values.
I'm looking for my 1st rolex. So are you saying a new 2030 sub will cost that much? Or a 2021 sub will be worth that?
Some 2021s are selling for 11-15k now.
What will an older submariner be worth at that time, like a 2019, 18, 17, 16 etc??
Talking about a brand new Sub in 2030. The current subs will definitely cost a lot less but it’s possible that they will run more than they do now. It’s hard to pin point a value on the 2019 because it will depend on whether the sudden interest in the maxi-case returns. For example, I personally prefer the maxi-case and it’s squared off lugs. I think there’s a group of people that think the same. I’m sure that group will grow over time. If you’re looking to get a new one on the grey/used market, I’d recommend waiting for this year’s Rolex releases to launch so the interest shifts to those models: probably the explorer 2. Hopefully that will momentarily soften the sub market. I still think the 116610 is a better buy in terms of grey/used market value than the 126610. The 126610 might have a little more depreciation before it continues to climb but that’s unlikely with the 116610 because it has been discontinued.
@@StandardTime thanks man!!
Look at the prices now... big jump..
the vintage rolex never drop in price. it is the best investment in watches
Are you calculate that production of Rolex anualy Will produce 2.000.000-3.000.000 rolex pero year un 2025-2030?
What do tho think about explorer 2 265170
then why are they all selling for way less online (used )?
Every video I watch I always think this is pretty much bark and jack... having you highlight that at the start of the vid put a smile on my face, thanks for making my weekend with another awesome upload:)
Thank you so much for enjoying it! Was a bit of an extra edit for barely a few seconds. Now I see it was worth it! Maybe it's because I gel with his videos so much that I subconsciously strive towards that. Not a bad thing I guess! :)
I’m looking to buy my first automatic and although I like Rolex and fancy a no-date submariner, the grey market prices are quite outrageous. In central Europe a decent 14060 is ~€8-9K and 114060 ~€10-11K. I guess the price will always go up on these discontinued models so there is a low risk of losing money, and perhaps even cash in, but is it a good idea to buy at these prices? I guess if you want one and sleep on it, you will soon end up paying a grand or two more.
Yeah I think the 114060 is a good buy now at low 10s in EU. Maybe there’s a little room for negotiation there. I see them holding strong, they will probably appreciate at least a grand every year or two. Even if they suddenly don’t appreciate, I don’t see them losing any value despite the watches getting older.
Bought a 124060 one month ago for 12,5. Now it‘s already ind the 14-15s 😄 cant go wrong even with the high grey market prices, you just can be late
No way on earth that the pre ceramics are worth the asking price. The newer ceramic models are leagues above them in quality.
Most years the prices increases are less than 6%. For example, in 2022 the increase is roughly 3 to 4%.
Good point, but it’s hard to estimate what the percentage shifts will be across the years so I just took a rough approach. I think it’s better to overestimate in this case than underestimate but naturally it’s not all that accurate.
Interesting video! Totally agree that it would be nice if the price did not inflate too much since I would love more people to be able to afford a Rolex. However, as you mentioned right now it is a supply issue anyway so Rolex can do almost anything they want
Thanks mate :)
I purchased the 16610lv Submariner 50th anniversary back in 2003 to pass down to my son. It has been sitting Gavin the safe for 18 years now. I have seen prices going as high as $50,000 for an unworn watch. I will give it to him when he graduates from college. He is only 14 now. I wonder how much it will be worth in 10 years?
Great perspective! But way too simple to make a prediction..... You havent taken into the consideration that its nearly impossible to buy subs at msrp, and the market price has far exceeded your prediction on particular models already 10 years before your prediction time. Some sport models has already doubled like the new kermit. And we have no idea the hype will still be there in 10 years. It might be at retail 18k but 12k market price, or 18k retail 30k+ market value.
Thanks Yi! Very true and very possible. The reason I didn’t take the actual premium values into consideration is because it’s quite based on hype and I don’t know if it’s mathematically possible to predict hype. At least I’m far from capable of that. Also another thing that would play the most crucial role is people having the same continued craze for these particular models, which over a 15 year period I think is unlikely. Just 4-5 years ago we had all these models sitting on shelves at the Rolex AD. Another thing is some new brand could come in and sweep up would be waitlist Rolex customers: like Zenith. So yeah you’re absolutely right but I could not have made any calculations for super inflated market value. It would have seemed like a wild unbelievable and blind guess. :)
Holding on my LN discontinued model for as long as I can till I need the cash 👀
Wise man
IMHO, a classic Rolex Submariner will hold its value and likely double in value over a ten year period. Government’s manipulate currency and as of 2022, inflation in the US is imminent.
Yep, sounds sound :)
Rolex watches are not investments. They are luxury goods. If I was interested in appreciation of the investment I would invest in something else. If you are worried about the cost of this item or if you need this item to appreciate for you then maybe you can't afford it?
Definitely not an investment! I hope prices fall as well. Regardless of how much wealth a person has, it’s simply not possible to say that one doesn’t care after you cross tens of thousands of dollars. Whether people like it or not, the state of the market is the result of people treating these watches as investments. Bad practice, I agree. I hope it stops. Thanks Glen :)
Well if you look at the price evolution of Rolex steel sports watches in the past 5-10 years it’s easy to see that they are great investments. For example, Submariner no-date (various references) has increased in grey market/second hand 50% in price over past 5 years. There are only very few stocks or other investments that can provide that kind of return on investment. Even real estate not and the initial investment is considerably higher.
Basically start buying "affordable" vintage Rolex now, because the market for those will explode.....as a new Rolex SS sports watch in 2030 will not be an option for about 97% of us
You talk the talk!
But can you walk the walk big guy ?
Thats the new price tho, lets say you have a 2021 submariner in a really good condition. For how much would that go for in 2030?
I don’t think that’s predictable at the moment because we don’t know how the next iteration of the submariner will be received. Depending on that, the current one could be more or less desirable. If it’s a 2021 NOS then it will definitely be worth more than a new 2030 one at retail. Can’t say how much yet though.
Where do you see the "hyped" watches in 2030? LIke a daytona or a hulk or something along those lines?
That’s tough to say. We will definitely have revisions of all sports models by then. I think the general public would’ve outgrown their fascination with Rolex and their waitlist nonsense by then as well. But regardless I think they’re gonna do well. Maybe not wildly above retail tho. The 116610LV Hulk might sit around the mid 30k USD. Just a random estimate though. I’d say Daytona is too difficult to say because not always have they been desirable as they are atm.
Even datejust are hard to find lol
It’s sad at this point..
The Sub looks huge in your wrist.
Camera makes it look odd. It wears on the smaller side actually.
Speculation, the market is due for a correction. There will be a market collapse definitely before 2030 so just wait and pick them up if you can then. Submariners are produced in quantities not a limited or small numbers, the problem is the grey market buys then thru ADs and control the market. And a lot a people that have access to Ads are also buying and flipping.
Quite possible but it would probably occur in the later half between now and 2030. It’s very difficult to gauge whether a stock/real estate market correction will affect the watch market. Most people believe it won’t since these are items of an asset class like art, not bound to most markets. Regarding production, I believe Rolex is trying to produce a lot less steel and more precious metals.
Now it’s selling at 20 to 30k and it’s only 2021
No no it’s still around 11-13k USD for a standard black sub.
Now it’s going for 20-24 k 😭
Imagine 2030
Inflation is way higher than 2%, more like 15% for the next 5 years. Buy bitcoin
lol. The opening
Anything that can help you to make money and you're happy with it, is an investment.
True!
in 2030 100 kg of rice maybe for this sub
My prediction is 107.83kg. I’ve run the algorithms.
Well the grey market will be £25k +
Oh god I hope not!
Bought my Hulk in 2010 right after the release from DavidSW for $7400. Now…….. we’ll you get it.
Solid appreciation on that ☝️
That's the end of wearing Rolex, everyone will be keeping them in a safe.
Seems doom and gloom doesn’t it...
@@StandardTime that's my problem with my Rolex pieces, they're becoming too valuable for their own good.
Fully agree!
People already safe Queen their Rolex. Guys In London don’t wear Rolex because of theft. Collectors don’t wear vintage pre-1985 watches (Rolex) 1) they are increasing in value 2) risk of adding wear to a watch 3) not reliable, water resistant, or accurate. We always see collectors on UA-cam or at RedBar events. These guys only bust out their collection pieces for pics. They no longer wear these old timepieces as many use to back in the mid 2000’s when they were cheap and a dime a dozen.
Wear mine for work. A bit like owing a classic car and keeping it in a museum never to be used: Pointless
Lol that’s not what blue chip stock means. Muppet
😂
You have fake Sub in video!
Nope.
👍🏻