As mentioned, I broke one of these hands down in more detail in the Upswing Poker private Facebook group. To get aceess to that and our step-by-step course to crushing No Limit Hold'em, get in The Lab: www.upswingpoker.com/the-poker-lab/
Hello doug! im a big fan of you and your videos , but i disagree totally with the first hand you should folded ... 75 % of the time you are losing to sets or to pairs ... said that you still one of my fav poker minds , SALUDOS DESDE PERU AMIGO !
The spreadsheet, "if he can have AA-JJ or AK". Wait what? You have AA so the likelihood he has AK or AA is that much smaller. Doug talked himself into a jam and that's a whole lot of production to justify it. No white Magic.
I like that the viewers are balancing their likes and dislikes on the videos. Sure, like is standard but you want to mix in some dislikes to keep Doug guessing.
I mean, I'm no pro, but if I'm watching that pre-flop action, there's no way in hell he has anything but KK, QQ, or JJ to me.. The all-in seemed crazy.. take one more card at least. He's all in no matter what at that point.
@Doug Polk Poker, dude with all due respect that first play was a complete donk move. Why would you push all in on a flop like that if you knew he had better than a marginal hand? The only time where this would work would obviously be if he was bluffing but other than that he has you beat. If anything you should've shoved pre-flop or checked the flop to see what happens next. And lastly, that last hand with pocket Queen's, I don't know what to say. It's another steaming moment from losing with pocket aces. One thing to learn is most people don't bluff with scenarios such as yours. And when you were squirming in your seat with pocket Queens, you knew you had to be beat. Like many others, you let emotions get the best of you and that's why you lost. Trust me~ I know...
The only time he sounds like he knows what he’s talking about is when he’s analyzing other people’s hands and that’s because he knows what both players cards are already lmao. Do better Doug pop. Get good.
Peter Lohnes at that point, you just gotta minimize the pot and call till you get lucky. You’re drawing to a 10 or an ace if you think you’re behind and win a huge pot. Your opponent can easily have AX, as worst for you, the sets and two pairs. No way it would be small ace. At this point you can’t really fold your AA and you have to minimize the pot as it’s possible for AK, which about half the time you’re probably winning with AA of a guy just trying to move, but you don’t want to make the pot big due to as likely as your opponent can bluff, they also as likely they have you beat but you still have 6 outs so you have about 20% catching up. But to jam on the flop is IDIOTIC AND A VERY IMPULSIVE MOVE.
this guy 4-bets u (possibly with KK, QQ, JJ) and then flop is so scary and you go all in? seriously? terrible play i think.. don't understand why people call so-called poker experts...
Jo Doug, just wanted to say I love the quality and amount of content you put out at the moment. Really goes to show how much passion and appreciation you have for the game and your fans. Awesome work, keep it up man! :)
@@Cowtymsmiesznego And what about the QQ vs AA? LMAO. AA is the nuts. OFC he´s gonna have Aces or 999 when going all in on that flop. Flush draw would just raise. Even 999 would just raise make it seem like a flush draw and trap the fuck out of him. I doubt any other hand would jam on that flop.
I played a 400 player tournament today (made 50th, but no cash, sadly). Early on I played a pivotal hand that was almost the exact first hand that Doug shows (AA vs KK with kings hitting a set on the flop, and then all of the money going in). The difference was that I was the guy with the set of kings... and my opponent riverred the ace.
Hey man, just wanted to say I really love the content. I've not played the game in a while, was big into it back in 2014 2015ish (the game not the stakes haha, risk management smh) but I've been loving all your videos, at first it was hard to keep up with you at first, but you break it down, pretty well, to after a few videos, everything started to flood back, about ranges, I always loved the videos where pros just lay it all out straight and tell exactly what they were thinking during certain hands their strategy, etc. One of the big reasons I was (or still am I guess s fan of Negreanu's small ball series). So crazy how this game changes from just s few years. Anyways, I'll hop off now lmao. But thanks for the vids and free content, if I get back into it, I'll def be lookin at your paid strategy stuff, always want to support good content providers. Also, if you happen to see this, what do you think of the crypto poker sites like CoinPoker. Think its probably just best to stick to traditional poker rooms that accept crypto to fiat conversions? Or (not sure how much you know about blockchain tech but) do you think a dedicated tokenized poker platform have a spot and legitimate use case. Thanks again Doug.
@@LTDANMAN44 no i saw that, but I've never seen that done anywhere else except for on this show. Is that common, or is it more so something that almost only happens on this show?
Awful jamb. If there is ever an easyish fold post flop with aces...this is it. No amount of explaining will make it any different. It's actually kind of annoying
I dont play GTO or give a damn about math, all I know is my lag style makes fish like you pay me off with crap all day long. Poker is about instinct and the sooner this GTO bullshit dies the better!
@@kingoftheilluminati9942 Damn right, sir! That's why all the "instinct" guys from years past are still super super crushing it and why none of the top pros for the past 5-10 years pay any attention to this 'GTO bullshit'! 100% on the mark, preach on brother!
2nd hand was a cooler but AA was a clear fold on KQJ after being 3 bet and then stevens lead on the flop. no way he was even leading AK its always a set
The statement that it's always a set is ridiculous. You cannot make those kind of generalizations at that level of play. It absolutely can be AK it can also be Tens.
you're a moron dude AK is never going to be 4betting here when doug has AA blocking the hand. Stevens is very rarely even 4 betting tens here and also hardly ever leading with them as that flop could have easily hit doug. open your eyes fanboy, its clearly 100% a set, 100% of the time. Growing as a poker player you should accept that you made a mistake and evaluate where you went wrong. Positive if someone else was holding the AA this hand review would be different
Well Doug, the only hand your opponent could have here that 4 bet, that you can beat is MAYBE AK. This is where having alot of Live Experience, can really be more beneficial than showing a bunch of possible hands and a graph. When you consider the fact that alot of bad 4 bets could be made with KQ, KJ, and Even QJ, and you cannot beat those hands as well, Jamming with AA is really a bad move man. It's the absolute worse board possible for your hand. So, if you are going to Jam on any board, why not just jam preflop as a 4.1-1 favorite? If you jam pre, and then you decide to run it 2x, you would probably atleast break even
Blake L Of course he created it. Super rudimentary analysis. His variables are the hand assumptions in column A and the percentages in column B (I think it was A and B) and his formula was in the far right column, and is essentially just multiplying and dividing. All of the other data was static.
You're a better player than Doug asking about a $1 poker game ? Sounds like you need a lifetime supply of Seroquel I'm sure Doug will play a heads up game with you Why not put up $10000 with that big mouth of yours, blinds at 25/50 and you don't stop until someone has it all?
I think you missed out a set of brackets/parentheses in your excel formula i.e. Cell J5 reads ((I5-G5) * 1-B5) + ((E5+F5) * B5) rather than ((I5-G5) * (1-B5)) +((E5+F5) * B5) Pretty sure this only further strengthens your point but just wanted to check I wasn't being dumb Keep up the great content!
I love the commentary..."he could have kings, queens, or jacks, maybe queen/Jack..." and then the flop comes where ALL of those hands now beat aces, and he raises all in.
Does that spreadsheet take in account how often villain mathematically shows up here with AK or AA when you have the AA in your hand, Doug? Cause he probably shows up there with a set more often than AK, and definately way more often than the AA. - I don't know the guy you're playing against, but if he's on the tighter side and doesn't 4bet AK 100% of the time preflop you should probably only give him 50% for the AK, no? ... So, AA starts to look pretty bad on that flop with that scenario, imho. - Anyway, you'll probably never read this, so I guess I'll just stop rambling and take a beer instead. - Cheers.
TD you're entirely correct. In his math AA AK had the same value as KK QQ JJ even though KK QQ JJ are much more likely based solely on the fact that he is holding AA.
Can anybody please provide a cogent explanation as to why Doug's play can't be summarized fundamentally as, "given the stack sizes, I will virtually never fold pocket aces."
When math players play these stakes and don't give a fck about live reads, this is what happens. After your 4bet, he already was counting your chips. As you do not show in your video, but I remember watching it live and thinking, why would Doug not pay attention to his opponent, when playing such a big pot. I know you don't believe in live reads, what is a big mistake. If you play these stakes with such good player, you have to work on every possible edge you can find. And... Jason just always has it, when he is shoving here. At least don't snap like you have 99. Show me one spot where he does not have at least KK in such a situation. Btw, when did you stop listening to advice, since when do you think you know it all. When will you understand that live full ring or even SnG HU is a different game then deepstack hu cashgames. You keep telling how great you play when you lose, instead of working on your leaks
Live reads are definitely underrated and I'm actually pretty curious as to why Doug doesn't add that tool to his arsenal? IMO that's one thing that makes Dwan of the best high stakes cash game players in the world. He doesn't stop glaring at his opponent, while he acts, while they act, when the cards flop etc. Just my .02
He's a wannabe math player. He doesn't even understand the mathematics of poker. He just reads stuff on the internet, and goes with it. If he truly understood mathematics, he would've got it all in preflop when the odds are definitely in his favor.
This is why I don't play poker any more (other than for fun with friends). I considered taking it to the next level but realized there is way, way more luck, or randomness/lack of control, involved than anyone wants to admit. The skill that can be obtained simply will never be able to overcome the odds/luck of the game. This is why you see the top players constantly rotating. If skill were able to overcome the odds then there would be 10 guys that consistently dominated every tournament for decades and decades. What we see instead is a constant stream of guys come and go. Sure there are always a couple of hundred that stay in it but that is simply because they choose to stick around and play a ton of games.
Of course thats why only a select few have made it in poker. Look at all the old school crushers most are broke now. Its gambling and any idiot can win and variance can crush you for years. Doyle said he had a year or two where he literally didnt win one hand lol..probably exagerating but what he means is variance crushed his soul for a year straight with mostly coolers and bad beats.
It's funny to see hands from 2017. This is where GTO gets too out of line - as well as trying to defend the line. This is an exploitative situation. I'm pretty sure the other guy does't even know what card removal is, therefore, trying to defend a jam in this situation is not going to work. Well, you can say "we're are developing a strategy and would play this every time" - that is not going to work and will loose money in the long run if playing against recreational players. Against a pro, no questions asked, it's a jam.
Should've shipped it in preflop. I think that's the correct play. Before he makes his set, you're at such an advantage. And if you're going to run it twice, you'll almost definitely win both.
And how often you actually think kings will fold heads up to a preflop shove after they reraised? The shove preflop hardly accomplishes much if anything.
This video is very reassuring of why to not take this game too seriously. You got rocked with the aces, and ignored all of your own 15 min rant advice and depended on 6 real outs at best post flop . You got coolered with the queens, and snapped off six figures like it was a set in the second hand. Nothing remotely different than what an average player would do playing this game.
I enjoy your content you provide for us Doug. Thank you for sharing your insight and wisdom over hundreds of videos you provide for us to view and the way you present them with laughter and comedy to make it entertaining is amazing. Go ask WSOP ME director ask if you can next years commentator, I'm sure they can not say ''no''. :D
so Doug; basically you spent 10 minutes displaying a Good Will Hunting chart, when at the end of the day, he had either Queens, Kings, or the other two Aces. According to the 2018 academy of poker, you holding AA blocks AK, and therefore, his 21K flop bet should've been a clear sign that you were beat. Lets speed up the video to "I have Aces, I may hit a gutterball nut straight, or running diamonds, and I decided to go for it. Makes total sense rather than displaying an EV chart that means zero .
Hard to sift through all the retards on here. I was about to talk about the idiocracy that exists in the minds of most of these comments...but nahhh. Cancerous is being polite.
I was telling myself what a terrible call Doug! And then he busted out the excel spreadsheet to explain how jamming wasn't a bad play. I almost fell out of my chair laughing LMFAO
QQ hand is standard. Just a cooler. But not a huge fan of the AA - KK hand. Much better to mostly just 5bet GII pre but as Doug said, it's okay to flat occasionally. Once that flop comes it's really awful. You block AK and as stated in the video he's super heavily weighted towards KK, QQ, JJ. In fact, there are more combos of them (9) than there are AK (6) so I no, I don't like the jam at all on the flop. And yes, I do think Brandon is much less likely to be getting out of line especially against someone with as prolific a profile as Doug. Called by sets, fold out all worse hands and you even have the Ad to block Ax suited hands Brandon is getting out of line with (if he's going to get out of line, it'll likely be one of these hands). Not Doug's GTO style, but I do think it was possible to make a profitable/exploitable fold on the flop. If you call the 4bet with AA is there any flop you would consider folding if your opponent continued or would you jam 100%? Because if you're not folding AA on this flop, there basically isn't a flop that you wouldn't jam right?
One of the only reasonable comments here, I've just been shaking my head at the rest of them. You make good points and I agree this is a bad flop but QJT is worse since AK is 4-bet with a much higher frequency than AT so you only beat KK(but KK still has decent equity) and bluffs and some Ax hands like AQ/AJ that you block, I remember 3-betting AA IP checking back the QJT flop and folding to a big turn bet in that spot (only $600 deep 2-5 but the logic is the same) but KQJ although similar is not quite as bad as QJT. I though the same thing so I ran this through Pio and AA with Ad has an EV of 6000 and it's strategy is jam 36% call 64%(with no plans on folding safe turns). 6000 is bad since we've already put in 17k but it's not so bad we should fold to a balanced opponent. We could fold to a nit who underbluffs in this spot and doesn't really 4-bet bluff ever and doesn't really make any plays but the players in this game are on the show for a reason, they all have some moves and have the ability to bluff from time to time so I don't think we really can exploit anyone at this table very hard. Then again I don't know this player well I'm just assuming that he's got some game since he's on the show, maybe there's something I don't know about him.
+PokerOCD, Why is the jamming percentage so high? I would think this would be a flat much more often, to keep turn bluffs in and given the betting polarization due to AK removal effect. What am I missing here?
Phil Ebben Pio finds equilibrium solutions. These solutions are rarely "always do this", most solutions are mixed like 65/35 for the better line and 35/65 for other lines, this makes it harder to put it on a hand.
I realize in general, an action isn't correct 100% of the time. But is 6 combos of AK enough to merit the raise 1/3 of the time? If villain has JJ-KK and ATs in their range, that's 11 combos we lose to. That is not enough AK combos calling us to merit the raise, unless my math is off.
Talks about just calling with aces to stack someone then literally gets stacked by someone calling with aces. Gotta love pros that can’t follow their own words.
All three sets are right in your face man, I thought you were good enough to fold there. But who im I to say, you are the pro not me. He is never 4 betting with AK or QK , so is obvious that he has a set.
I mean it’s not bad to call the flop but jamming all in on that board is stupid. You have 6 outs of being behind, and your opponent could be bluffing or if two pair, at least you can improve on the turn. I like a call for small price due to the fact of your outs and I think it’s about %20 that you’ll catch up.
The worse part of this, is when Doug is thinking of what to do, I can nearly hear his squeaky voice, talking absolute bullshit about random hands he might have.
+Ken C Thanks Ken. This year I have the 1 drop, the party 5k during SCOOP on stream, got 2nd in a poker masters event, etc. Even this week, I only lost 60k on PAD. I'm axtjay up a ton of money this year, but people only want to talk about the most recent events rather than the entire sample.
So I am pretty confused and have concluded that 'Doug's spreadsheet / calculations are incorrect. The computations in the J column are incorrect due to some missing parenthesis. The point of the exercise remains somewhat accurate but you cannot base decisions on incorrect math from a spreadsheet. That column at 9:25 in the clip should read which is way different than his calculation. Something just seemed "off" in my looking at it: -$21,906 $16,646 $25,336 -$2,166 $25,137 $32,089 $13,151
Doug what hands are he betting on that flop considering the pre-flop action that you could possibly be ahead of? I understand that you are an advanced and accomplished player but this really makes no sense in my mind that he could ever be betting that flop that amount and not be absolutely certain he is ahead. Considering the pre-flop action the flop itself and the fact that he is out of position what could he be doing with that bet in that spot other than betting for value/inducing??
adam connolly I get that, and I'm not crazy about Doug snap jamming there, but I'm pretty sure I would at least call one street there. I'm not Doug so I'm not an expert but I feel like you hand has a lot of equity to fold there, even against a tight player.
Liam Gannon yes Aces alone are not that amazing it is a one pair hand. In this spot it is more likely than not at least in my opinion that you’re opponent either has trips or two pair. I wouldn’t put him on top set specifically but you are losing to many likely hands considering the pre-flop raising at least in my opinion. It kind of seems like a spot where Doug said my two hole cards are aces therefore I am going all in no matter what.
Jeo the easy response is Doug hates folding. He has a lot of success because he can afford to make ridiculous bluffs and afford to never fold. That is a wicked combo to have when the game is dictated by throwing $$ around.
Doug i think you need to add some exploitative play into your game...if you're always focusing on the GTO strategy you become unable to avoid cooler situations like this. From an exploitative standpoint when Koon flats your 4-bet pre rather quickly i think it's very apparent that he has a strong hand here, warning bells should be going off. I think this should be a clear check on the flop both for pot control and also to make hands like 10's or JJ feel much more comfortable about the situation and be able to get more value from those holdings on later streets. I understand that this is a cooler and very difficult hand to get away from but i feel like you played it in a way that does not allow you to get much value from worse, however i do not think that Koon has very many bluffs in this spot altho still possible.
John Malvasio Explained perfectly. To avoid getting stacked from coolers, you need to rely on reads and throw the GTO strategy out the window. With enough losses on the bankroll, I'm sure that this gets a GTO player to adapt their game back to that strategy.
uhm the very definition of gto is that it is impossible to exploit a gto strat. that is the only reason people started applying gto to poker to begin with.... but they you are probably trolling me here so gg XD
GTO or not, and this is strictly just my opinion, but I don't see the need to 🚢 my entire stack in with one pair. Out of curiosity, *especially* with PAD's monster stakes, why not play a lil more smallball, and waiting til it's much more of a "sure" thing?
As mentioned, I broke one of these hands down in more detail in the Upswing Poker private Facebook group. To get aceess to that and our step-by-step course to crushing No Limit Hold'em, get in The Lab: www.upswingpoker.com/the-poker-lab/
Hello doug! im a big fan of you and your videos , but i disagree totally with the first hand you should folded ... 75 % of the time you are losing to sets or to pairs ... said that you still one of my fav poker minds , SALUDOS DESDE PERU AMIGO !
If he is up against a set only 75%, than it's an obvious Jam.
Doug, in the long run, GTO wins as long as you make the appropriate GTO folds. lol
The spreadsheet, "if he can have AA-JJ or AK". Wait what? You have AA so the likelihood he has AK or AA is that much smaller. Doug talked himself into a jam and that's a whole lot of production to justify it. No white Magic.
The likelihood of them having AK is about as much as them having a set.
Dougs favorite part of this video was calling himself a celebrity in the title.
More $ than subscribers. Hopefully referring to himself as a celebrity will bring them in
You spoiled it bro
I'd say degenerate gambler than a celebrity, but he's done very well for himself though.
Now I understand why he quit!
Poker is Brutal
haha i was watching like whos the celebrity?
I like that the viewers are balancing their likes and dislikes on the videos. Sure, like is standard but you want to mix in some dislikes to keep Doug guessing.
Shawn Mitchell
That is HILARIOUS!
This comment made my day!! :D
hahaha :)
lol
I see you've studied YTO (youtube optimal).....have you run YOLO solver? (youtube online likes obviously)
I came here for the riveting conversation about tuition costs at Stanford.
lmao
I never use this acronym but damn, I just wish they would STFU!!!!!!!!!
who was that annoying twat?
Do private colleges get tax breaks? Im not up on current policy but im pretty sure they do.
Nothin better than some white guy talking about how rich white private school kids are getting screwed over
"He mainly has KK, QQ, JJ when a player 4 bets like this."
Flop comes K,Q,J
I'm all in! LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Aaron Soto LOL I was laughing at that tooo.. ohh boyyy
I mean, I'm no pro, but if I'm watching that pre-flop action, there's no way in hell he has anything but KK, QQ, or JJ to me.. The all-in seemed crazy.. take one more card at least. He's all in no matter what at that point.
guys, do you guys even listen? People can have bluffs ,don’t say the word always in poker....
@Doug Polk Poker, dude with all due respect that first play was a complete donk move. Why would you push all in on a flop like that if you knew he had better than a marginal hand? The only time where this would work would obviously be if he was bluffing but other than that he has you beat. If anything you should've shoved pre-flop or checked the flop to see what happens next.
And lastly, that last hand with pocket Queen's, I don't know what to say. It's another steaming moment from losing with pocket aces. One thing to learn is most people don't bluff with scenarios such as yours. And when you were squirming in your seat with pocket Queens, you knew you had to be beat. Like many others, you let emotions get the best of you and that's why you lost. Trust me~ I know...
I think he played a little too much GTO here - it's not online
"It's gonna be all of it, Doug"
Brutal.
LOL I read that right as it was said
Mike Postle would've folded after the flop.
lmao
*Mike Postle would've check/folded the flop.
There, fixed it for ya!
Not so fast...Mike Postle would've folded the flop.
CTO
Wrong, Postle would've folded the 4 bet preflop.
“We’re gonna get a little more complex than normal here” to help justify me losing an make me feel better about it lol
Lmao
I saw a guy in an elvis costume on the strip trying to hustle tourists , looked just like this dude.
And on a completely unrelated note, the price of Upswing Poker is going up.
Bob Georgiou hahahaha 😂😂😂😂
Time for another 1 hour infomercial to cover his leaks :)
Now *THAT* is comic gold at its best.
Is it worth a plug nickel?
eBay patriotpokergear ** t-shirts hats long sleeves & hoodies low prices
"UA-camr, Doug Polk refers to himself in the third person"
"It's gonna be all of it, Doug." That was nasty
Doug, you spent so much time around Phil Helmuth and still haven't learned any white magic? Come on man
who is the UA-cam celebrity ?
rene herrera very nice observation !
Why you hatibg? 😭😂
Ikr. I was wondering if PewDiePie played poker. Different meaning of the word celebrity nowadays.
exactly, i didn't get it either....
don't know is it you Rene
"Our hand begins with Brian Rast yammering on incessantly about the economics of higher education..."
Im just trying to figure out whos the "UA-cam Celebrity" is. I dont know any of them...Someone tell me please
Doug, do you ever post videos where it looks like you know what your doing? Haha
Nathan Lee lol
He post vids of him losing some money and been koo about it. How many have you posted b? Exactly
The only time he sounds like he knows what he’s talking about is when he’s analyzing other people’s hands and that’s because he knows what both players cards are already lmao. Do better Doug pop. Get good.
I am a novice, just curious, What is the benefit of running it twice, to the hand who is a heavy favorite?
@@kevinwalery9716 Reduce variance. Also respect for people who are playing for big money
It’s ok Doug you still know how to down a glass of beer!
c'mon Doug. You know you messed this one up. Next Video: "I can still learn to play better"
I don't mind calling, however when my opponent four bets there, how can I not put him on KK or QQ and release on that HORRIBLE flop
Peter Lohnes at that point, you just gotta minimize the pot and call till you get lucky. You’re drawing to a 10 or an ace if you think you’re behind and win a huge pot. Your opponent can easily have AX, as worst for you, the sets and two pairs. No way it would be small ace. At this point you can’t really fold your AA and you have to minimize the pot as it’s possible for AK, which about half the time you’re probably winning with AA of a guy just trying to move, but you don’t want to make the pot big due to as likely as your opponent can bluff, they also as likely they have you beat but you still have 6 outs so you have about 20% catching up. But to jam on the flop is IDIOTIC AND A VERY IMPULSIVE MOVE.
Dezu123 spr was definitely not 1.5... also shoving and calling wasn’t definitely equal to a shove... the bet was about a 1/3 of your chip count.
Saving this video to serve as a reminder how “ not to play AA “ .... brutal to watch
And also how not to play QQ lmfao
Should have gone all-in pre-flop. So you'll have an excuse of being out-flopped instead.
Kudos for showing yourself losing hands. Very humble.
way over analysis he has got to have kk or qq in that situation or at worst ak thats not a good play at all
this guy 4-bets u (possibly with KK, QQ, JJ) and then flop is so scary and you go all in? seriously? terrible play i think.. don't understand why people call so-called poker experts...
i would love to hear this kid just say, "you know, i made a mistake, i could have played better".
Long explanation for a simple hand you got spanked in Doug.
Jo Doug, just wanted to say I love the quality and amount of content you put out at the moment. Really goes to show how much passion and appreciation you have for the game and your fans. Awesome work, keep it up man! :)
+Michel Rieckhoff Thanks Michel! Appreciate you stopping by and dropping a comment
kudos for breaking down hands you lose. hearing your thinking/analysis is very valuable
also i find it amusing you tout AA-QQ as your “fav hands” - who doesn’t think the same 😂
How can you lose with your favorite hand???
Superpasi7 it just doesn't seem right!!
you dont think that his face is too nitty to have anything else but set???///
Steven had trip KANGS
Getting beat on the river lol
Doug Polk Poker fuck you doug joke
no question you go all in pre flop there. You either take down a nice pot or you force your opponent to make a decision with KK.
Doug, you know, I am STILL waiting on that Halloween-'Polkergeist'-Special that you never promised!
"It's gonna be all of it Doug"
Commentator at the end: "It's gonna be all of it Doug" that was nasty.
how could you not fold when you're up against the nuts, Doug?
He was never up against the nuts in this video though...
@@Cowtymsmiesznego And what about the QQ vs AA? LMAO. AA is the nuts. OFC he´s gonna have Aces or 999 when going all in on that flop. Flush draw would just raise. Even 999 would just raise make it seem like a flush draw and trap the fuck out of him. I doubt any other hand would jam on that flop.
8:27 whats the program being used to chart the stuff?
lmao...Doug trying to “balance” against someone he’ll hardly play ever again
Justifying his donkey call
you don't balance against specific people you dumbass. you balance your specific strategy..
I played a 400 player tournament today (made 50th, but no cash, sadly).
Early on I played a pivotal hand that was almost the exact first hand that Doug shows (AA vs KK with kings hitting a set on the flop, and then all of the money going in).
The difference was that I was the guy with the set of kings... and my opponent riverred the ace.
"Its gonna be all of it Doug" Got me laughin so hard at the very end xDD
He deserved it. Why would anyone 4-bet QQ? LMAO WTF. And this guy calls himself a poker pro and a celebrity HAHAHA what a joke this guy is.
@@Jakub269 you're so result oriented, you'll never beat sauce123 in a hu challenge if you keep it up!
Hey man, just wanted to say I really love the content. I've not played the game in a while, was big into it back in 2014 2015ish (the game not the stakes haha, risk management smh) but I've been loving all your videos, at first it was hard to keep up with you at first, but you break it down, pretty well, to after a few videos, everything started to flood back, about ranges, I always loved the videos where pros just lay it all out straight and tell exactly what they were thinking during certain hands their strategy, etc. One of the big reasons I was (or still am I guess s fan of Negreanu's small ball series). So crazy how this game changes from just s few years. Anyways, I'll hop off now lmao. But thanks for the vids and free content, if I get back into it, I'll def be lookin at your paid strategy stuff, always want to support good content providers.
Also, if you happen to see this, what do you think of the crypto poker sites like CoinPoker. Think its probably just best to stick to traditional poker rooms that accept crypto to fiat conversions? Or (not sure how much you know about blockchain tech but) do you think a dedicated tokenized poker platform have a spot and legitimate use case.
Thanks again Doug.
Dwan could have gotten away from both hands
True, he got away from the Triads so why not two poker hands?
Lmao
Does anybody know why they put two different sets of cards at 10:50?
they both agreed to run it twice
@@LTDANMAN44 no i saw that, but I've never seen that done anywhere else except for on this show. Is that common, or is it more so something that almost only happens on this show?
Awful jamb. If there is ever an easyish fold post flop with aces...this is it. No amount of explaining will make it any different. It's actually kind of annoying
the donkey tries to justify it with math lol
WOW AWFUL PLAY HERE, NO AMOUNT OF MATH IS GONNA JUSTIFY THIS.
Danny Johnston Wrong, my friend. Math justifies everything in poker.
I dont play GTO or give a damn about math, all I know is my lag style makes fish like you pay me off with crap all day long. Poker is about instinct and the sooner this GTO bullshit dies the better!
@@kingoftheilluminati9942 Damn right, sir! That's why all the "instinct" guys from years past are still super super crushing it and why none of the top pros for the past 5-10 years pay any attention to this 'GTO bullshit'! 100% on the mark, preach on brother!
2nd hand was a cooler but AA was a clear fold on KQJ after being 3 bet and then stevens lead on the flop. no way he was even leading AK its always a set
measuringtap3 you're an idiot
+measuringtap3 What do you mean by leading, I think you mean the term cbetting
The statement that it's always a set is ridiculous. You cannot make those kind of generalizations at that level of play. It absolutely can be AK it can also be Tens.
you're a moron dude AK is never going to be 4betting here when doug has AA blocking the hand. Stevens is very rarely even 4 betting tens here and also hardly ever leading with them as that flop could have easily hit doug. open your eyes fanboy, its clearly 100% a set, 100% of the time. Growing as a poker player you should accept that you made a mistake and evaluate where you went wrong. Positive if someone else was holding the AA this hand review would be different
measuringtap3
While I am a fan of doug in this instance I'm more limely to 4bet AK or TT because its doug.
“Hindsight is 20/20” with a pinch of rationalization.
Well Doug, the only hand your opponent could have here that 4 bet, that you can beat is MAYBE AK. This is where having alot of Live Experience, can really be more beneficial than showing a bunch of possible hands and a graph. When you consider the fact that alot of bad 4 bets could be made with KQ, KJ, and Even QJ, and you cannot beat those hands as well, Jamming with AA is really a bad move man. It's the absolute worse board possible for your hand. So, if you are going to Jam on any board, why not just jam preflop as a 4.1-1 favorite? If you jam pre, and then you decide to run it 2x, you would probably atleast break even
AA, KK and QQ... skill gets buttfucked and all that is left is pure luck...
Hey, Doug I know this is an old video but how did you create that spreadsheet? I would love to study that way myself.
Blake L Of course he created it. Super rudimentary analysis. His variables are the hand assumptions in column A and the percentages in column B (I think it was A and B) and his formula was in the far right column, and is essentially just multiplying and dividing. All of the other data was static.
Study, just don't learn how to study or play from the youtube loser
Douglas
I could've used that 371 to buy a house. Shame on u
ARE U STUPID? Mine was $150k 2 houses
I am pretty sure he was thinking "you never fold AA"" lol
My friends and I play with 1$ to see the flop no pre flop raises hold em and crazy pineapple do u have any advice for this type of cash game?
Owen O'Connor , yes don't play in it . You might as well play slots
Be lucky. It's just about the only thing that will matter.
Money is the only thing that keeps people from calling
You have to raise the stakes enough for people to worry about
Try a $100 buy in or $300
ok thanks guys even tho not even doug has advice for this one. tbh i feel like i'm a better live player than doug no offense doug just my opinion
You're a better player than Doug asking about a $1 poker game ?
Sounds like you need a lifetime supply of Seroquel
I'm sure Doug will play a heads up game with you
Why not put up $10000 with that big mouth of yours, blinds at 25/50 and you don't stop until someone has it all?
I think you missed out a set of brackets/parentheses in your excel formula i.e.
Cell J5 reads ((I5-G5) * 1-B5) + ((E5+F5) * B5)
rather than ((I5-G5) * (1-B5)) +((E5+F5) * B5)
Pretty sure this only further strengthens your point but just wanted to check I wasn't being dumb
Keep up the great content!
Doug's the fish in that lineup lol. They are only there because of him ;)
Lukas Wirmsberger lol for reals
D T bro why you so mad?
did you consider shoving all in pre, then running it more than once
Self proclaimed celebrity 😂
I love the commentary..."he could have kings, queens, or jacks, maybe queen/Jack..." and then the flop comes where ALL of those hands now beat aces, and he raises all in.
Does that spreadsheet take in account how often villain mathematically shows up here with AK or AA when you have the AA in your hand, Doug? Cause he probably shows up there with a set more often than AK, and definately way more often than the AA. - I don't know the guy you're playing against, but if he's on the tighter side and doesn't 4bet AK 100% of the time preflop you should probably only give him 50% for the AK, no? ... So, AA starts to look pretty bad on that flop with that scenario, imho. - Anyway, you'll probably never read this, so I guess I'll just stop rambling and take a beer instead. - Cheers.
TD you're entirely correct. In his math AA AK had the same value as KK QQ JJ even though KK QQ JJ are much more likely based solely on the fact that he is holding AA.
Not enough spreadsheets in poker videos. Thumbs up & subbed.
Do you have any clips where you lay down great hands or are you always calculating value and outs and making excuses why you should stay in a pot?
Can anybody please provide a cogent explanation as to why Doug's play can't be summarized fundamentally as, "given the stack sizes, I will virtually never fold pocket aces."
When math players play these stakes and don't give a fck about live reads, this is what happens. After your 4bet, he already was counting your chips. As you do not show in your video, but I remember watching it live and thinking, why would Doug not pay attention to his opponent, when playing such a big pot. I know you don't believe in live reads, what is a big mistake. If you play these stakes with such good player, you have to work on every possible edge you can find. And... Jason just always has it, when he is shoving here. At least don't snap like you have 99. Show me one spot where he does not have at least KK in such a situation. Btw, when did you stop listening to advice, since when do you think you know it all. When will you understand that live full ring or even SnG HU is a different game then deepstack hu cashgames. You keep telling how great you play when you lose, instead of working on your leaks
Max Winn You could just tell Doug this at the next super high roller you meet him at instead of typing all thi...oh wait..
Max Winn live reads hahahaha yeah right mentalist 😂😂
Live reads are definitely underrated and I'm actually pretty curious as to why Doug doesn't add that tool to his arsenal?
IMO that's one thing that makes Dwan of the best high stakes cash game players in the world. He doesn't stop glaring at his opponent, while he acts, while they act, when the cards flop etc.
Just my .02
Max Winn
+1
He's a wannabe math player. He doesn't even understand the mathematics of poker. He just reads stuff on the internet, and goes with it. If he truly understood mathematics, he would've got it all in preflop when the odds are definitely in his favor.
i sighed when the spreadsheet came up
Does he call himself a youtube celebrity lmfao
This is why I don't play poker any more (other than for fun with friends). I considered taking it to the next level but realized there is way, way more luck, or randomness/lack of control, involved than anyone wants to admit. The skill that can be obtained simply will never be able to overcome the odds/luck of the game. This is why you see the top players constantly rotating. If skill were able to overcome the odds then there would be 10 guys that consistently dominated every tournament for decades and decades. What we see instead is a constant stream of guys come and go. Sure there are always a couple of hundred that stay in it but that is simply because they choose to stick around and play a ton of games.
Of course thats why only a select few have made it in poker. Look at all the old school crushers most are broke now. Its gambling and any idiot can win and variance can crush you for years. Doyle said he had a year or two where he literally didnt win one hand lol..probably exagerating but what he means is variance crushed his soul for a year straight with mostly coolers and bad beats.
"All in all, a super fun day of poker for me.". Urgh good grief....I guess that feeling is comparable to me losing 4 hundo. Man. Different level.
where can I watch the full episodes?
Hard to justify the 1st hand but harder to listen to his voice...
It's funny to see hands from 2017. This is where GTO gets too out of line - as well as trying to defend the line. This is an exploitative situation. I'm pretty sure the other guy does't even know what card removal is, therefore, trying to defend a jam in this situation is not going to work. Well, you can say "we're are developing a strategy and would play this every time" - that is not going to work and will loose money in the long run if playing against recreational players. Against a pro, no questions asked, it's a jam.
20% of the time, Aces lose every time. I hope you factored this into your analysis Doug!
Which means 80% of the time, Aces win. I'll take my chances
Not right. If 20% of the time they lose every time, 80% of the time they can still lose sometimes.
Cowtymsmiesznego But when they lose 20% of the time they can also win by bluffing lol
No, because then they don't lose every time if they sometimes win by bluffing...
Yes, because if you sometimes bluff 20% of the time you don't lose 80% of the time by not bluffing
doug: this spot is EXACTLY the same spot as I faced AA vs a 4 bet. Next sentence: This spot is a little bit different though
Should've shipped it in preflop. I think that's the correct play. Before he makes his set, you're at such an advantage. And if you're going to run it twice, you'll almost definitely win both.
And how often you actually think kings will fold heads up to a preflop shove after they reraised? The shove preflop hardly accomplishes much if anything.
You must be pissed so bad that you’ve had to make spreadsheets 🤣
Honestly, I wish I could lose 300k playing poker.
This video is very reassuring of why to not take this game too seriously. You got rocked with the aces, and ignored all of your own 15 min rant advice and depended on 6 real outs at best post flop . You got coolered with the queens, and snapped off six figures like it was a set in the second hand. Nothing remotely different than what an average player would do playing this game.
I had to fast forward through every moment of that narration.
Love these poker hand break downs. Keep them coming!
+Blake Burke Thanks Blake! Have quite a few more planned for the future
With the KQJ flop should of been easy fold for AA,,come on man,,
I enjoy your content you provide for us Doug.
Thank you for sharing your insight and wisdom over hundreds of videos you provide for us to view and the way you present them with laughter and comedy to make it entertaining is amazing.
Go ask WSOP ME director ask if you can next years commentator, I'm sure they can not say ''no''. :D
How do players deal with people just rambling and rambling
so Doug; basically you spent 10 minutes displaying a Good Will Hunting chart, when at the end of the day, he had either Queens, Kings, or the other two Aces. According to the 2018 academy of poker, you holding AA blocks AK, and therefore, his 21K flop bet should've been a clear sign that you were beat. Lets speed up the video to "I have Aces, I may hit a gutterball nut straight, or running diamonds, and I decided to go for it. Makes total sense rather than displaying an EV chart that means zero .
Cancerous comment section lol
TIMS3O #RaiseIT
Hard to sift through all the retards on here. I was about to talk about the idiocracy that exists in the minds of most of these comments...but nahhh. Cancerous is being polite.
I was telling myself what a terrible call Doug! And then he busted out the excel spreadsheet to explain how jamming wasn't a bad play. I almost fell out of my chair laughing LMFAO
Yeah a player his caliber still thinks thats a good play I guess i dont know shit. Obviously dude flopped a set lol
QQ hand is standard. Just a cooler. But not a huge fan of the AA - KK hand. Much better to mostly just 5bet GII pre but as Doug said, it's okay to flat occasionally. Once that flop comes it's really awful. You block AK and as stated in the video he's super heavily weighted towards KK, QQ, JJ. In fact, there are more combos of them (9) than there are AK (6) so I no, I don't like the jam at all on the flop. And yes, I do think Brandon is much less likely to be getting out of line especially against someone with as prolific a profile as Doug. Called by sets, fold out all worse hands and you even have the Ad to block Ax suited hands Brandon is getting out of line with (if he's going to get out of line, it'll likely be one of these hands). Not Doug's GTO style, but I do think it was possible to make a profitable/exploitable fold on the flop.
If you call the 4bet with AA is there any flop you would consider folding if your opponent continued or would you jam 100%? Because if you're not folding AA on this flop, there basically isn't a flop that you wouldn't jam right?
One of the only reasonable comments here, I've just been shaking my head at the rest of them. You make good points and I agree this is a bad flop but QJT is worse since AK is 4-bet with a much higher frequency than AT so you only beat KK(but KK still has decent equity) and bluffs and some Ax hands like AQ/AJ that you block, I remember 3-betting AA IP checking back the QJT flop and folding to a big turn bet in that spot (only $600 deep 2-5 but the logic is the same) but KQJ although similar is not quite as bad as QJT. I though the same thing so I ran this through Pio and AA with Ad has an EV of 6000 and it's strategy is jam 36% call 64%(with no plans on folding safe turns). 6000 is bad since we've already put in 17k but it's not so bad we should fold to a balanced opponent. We could fold to a nit who underbluffs in this spot and doesn't really 4-bet bluff ever and doesn't really make any plays but the players in this game are on the show for a reason, they all have some moves and have the ability to bluff from time to time so I don't think we really can exploit anyone at this table very hard. Then again I don't know this player well I'm just assuming that he's got some game since he's on the show, maybe there's something I don't know about him.
+PokerOCD Fair analysis. Fwiw the same player 4b 44 earlier in the session
+PokerOCD, Why is the jamming percentage so high? I would think this would be a flat much more often, to keep turn bluffs in and given the betting polarization due to AK removal effect. What am I missing here?
Phil Ebben Pio finds equilibrium solutions. These solutions are rarely "always do this", most solutions are mixed like 65/35 for the better line and 35/65 for other lines, this makes it harder to put it on a hand.
I realize in general, an action isn't correct 100% of the time. But is 6 combos of AK enough to merit the raise 1/3 of the time? If villain has JJ-KK and ATs in their range, that's 11 combos we lose to. That is not enough AK combos calling us to merit the raise, unless my math is off.
Talks about just calling with aces to stack someone then literally gets stacked by someone calling with aces. Gotta love pros that can’t follow their own words.
All three sets are right in your face man, I thought you were good enough to fold there. But who im I to say, you are the pro not me. He is never 4 betting with AK or QK , so is obvious that he has a set.
so true, only beating TT and AK.
I mean it’s not bad to call the flop but jamming all in on that board is stupid. You have 6 outs of being behind, and your opponent could be bluffing or if two pair, at least you can improve on the turn. I like a call for small price due to the fact of your outs and I think it’s about %20 that you’ll catch up.
The worse part of this, is when Doug is thinking of what to do, I can nearly hear his squeaky voice, talking absolute bullshit about random hands he might have.
Shoving that flop was spewwww
Im in awe that these 2 have the nerve to carry on a fucking conversation during a hand
This vid is the perfect example of when the poker 'expert' becomes the prey. A lot easier to know what to do, when ya know the hole cards.
Did your spreadsheet include A10s?! That's what I thought.
I love ya man, but hate a sad story. Please show a few big wins so we can all have a happy ending.
+Ken C Thanks Ken. This year I have the 1 drop, the party 5k during SCOOP on stream, got 2nd in a poker masters event, etc.
Even this week, I only lost 60k on PAD. I'm axtjay up a ton of money this year, but people only want to talk about the most recent events rather than the entire sample.
Doug Polk Poker ok Doug, glad you're doing fine("only lost 60k"😱) and I won't see you selling pencils on Las Vegas blvd.
"I had a super fun day playing poker"
So I am pretty confused and have concluded that 'Doug's spreadsheet / calculations are incorrect. The computations in the J column are incorrect due to some missing parenthesis. The point of the exercise remains somewhat accurate but you cannot base decisions on incorrect math from a spreadsheet. That column at 9:25 in the clip should read which is way different than his calculation. Something just seemed "off" in my looking at it:
-$21,906
$16,646
$25,336
-$2,166
$25,137
$32,089
$13,151
I fast forward through all the commentary.
so you watch a 15 second video? me too.
Cause you dont understand
Thanks for passing this highly informative tidbit on.
I unsubscribed
What I don't get is if you put him on a range of KK/QQ/JJ then you are easily behind. He did re raise fairly polarized IMO.
Doug what hands are he betting on that flop considering the pre-flop action that you could possibly be ahead of? I understand that you are an advanced and accomplished player but this really makes no sense in my mind that he could ever be betting that flop that amount and not be absolutely certain he is ahead. Considering the pre-flop action the flop itself and the fact that he is out of position what could he be doing with that bet in that spot other than betting for value/inducing??
Is there anyway you are gonna fold on that flop?
especially as brandon c bet 20k leaving himself 40 ish behind....
adam connolly I get that, and I'm not crazy about Doug snap jamming there, but I'm pretty sure I would at least call one street there. I'm not Doug so I'm not an expert but I feel like you hand has a lot of equity to fold there, even against a tight player.
Liam Gannon yes Aces alone are not that amazing it is a one pair hand. In this spot it is more likely than not at least in my opinion that you’re opponent either has trips or two pair. I wouldn’t put him on top set specifically but you are losing to many likely hands considering the pre-flop raising at least in my opinion. It kind of seems like a spot where Doug said my two hole cards are aces therefore I am going all in no matter what.
Jeo the easy response is Doug hates folding. He has a lot of success because he can afford to make ridiculous bluffs and afford to never fold. That is a wicked combo to have when the game is dictated by throwing $$ around.
Jesus, our boy Dougie fresh down a cool mil in these high stakes televised cash games.
Doug i think you need to add some exploitative play into your game...if you're always focusing on the GTO strategy you become unable to avoid cooler situations like this. From an exploitative standpoint when Koon flats your 4-bet pre rather quickly i think it's very apparent that he has a strong hand here, warning bells should be going off. I think this should be a clear check on the flop both for pot control and also to make hands like 10's or JJ feel much more comfortable about the situation and be able to get more value from those holdings on later streets. I understand that this is a cooler and very difficult hand to get away from but i feel like you played it in a way that does not allow you to get much value from worse, however i do not think that Koon has very many bluffs in this spot altho still possible.
John Malvasio Explained perfectly. To avoid getting stacked from coolers, you need to rely on reads and throw the GTO strategy out the window. With enough losses on the bankroll, I'm sure that this gets a GTO player to adapt their game back to that strategy.
XDD im not sure if john was trolling or not. i just hope it was a troll
Actually i dont like that gto stuff...i mean if you know your opponent and that he plays straight gto, its exploitive as fuck!
uhm the very definition of gto is that it is impossible to exploit a gto strat. that is the only reason people started applying gto to poker to begin with.... but they you are probably trolling me here so gg XD
GTO or not, and this is strictly just my opinion, but I don't see the need to 🚢 my entire stack in with one pair.
Out of curiosity, *especially* with PAD's monster stakes, why not play a lil more smallball, and waiting til it's much more of a "sure" thing?
How much more equity do we have when we have backdoor flush draw comparing to not having?
where did Polk get all his money sure wasn't from playing poker
How did you get two turns and two rivers, I don't understand