Catching up on your videos. Funny hearing your RDJ impressions given everyone is now like "instant win! instant win!" for his performance in Oppenheimer.
I know everybody says how gorgeous Brother Bro is (and he is), but you, Cole, are very handsome yourself! Love you guys! This is exciting, looking at the lineup of movies this year!
Same. Grabbed him in supporting at 100/1 and put a super bet on the category, after the Vanity Fair article that confirmed he will be campaigning, Im all here for it. BlackBerry is honestly in my Letterboxd top 4, I adore every ounce of that movie
@@Wired4Life2 listen, I wish he was in actor, but he can’t compete with that crowd. I’ll take actor -> supporting fraud for a small indie (with a lot of heart) over what Williams pulled last year any day
I honestly feel like people are putting Spiderverse higher than it should be, and people are not paying enough attention to The Boy And The Heron. Thinking back to 2002, they nominated The Two Towers but gave it barely any Oscars. What did they do? They waited for the final in the trilogy and then gave it the praise it deserved. There is also the stigma against superhero movies that the academy holds. For The Boy And The Heron, it has been getting rave reviews and is opening Tiff. It also has a compelling story for people to vote for the final film by Hayao Miyazaki.
I'll only be sold on Spider-Verse for picture once I see the response to How Do You Live in Japan's release. I have a feeling like HDYL could be stronger than Spider-Verse at the end of the day by virtue of being an original screenplay and getting into that category easier. I could see HDYL getting international, animated, score, and original screenplay nominations which would be a stronger candidate than Spider-Verse.
Same here. Frankly, there’s a narrative behind Miyazaki getting into director. Nabbed him at 100/1 in there because frankly it’s a hopediction but I need it.
@@devdanferguson7616 My hot take is that I'm putting him at #1 in my Director list. If the movie takes off there's a strong narrative to award him Best Director
@@Wired4Life2 it is not. It is an original story that has nothing in common with the content of the book, simply people and their stories should intertwine with th book in the movie.
I’m confident that Past Lives will do well in Independent Spirit Awards but it’s difficult to appeal to EVERYONE like EEAAO so it will be nominated but not win…😢
@@nate-it9xq reviews really don’t mean much when it comes to Oscars - otherwise films like Joker, Elvis, and Trial of the Chicago 7 (which weren’t exactly loved by critics) wouldn’t have been nominated and films like No Bears, First Cow, and Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn would have. What matters is how mainstream friendly and crowd pleasing a film is. Past Lives might be mainstream friendly, but is by no means a crowd pleaser. But then, I might be speaking with bias because I thought the film was mediocre.
@@k-203_DV Sure, but when a film is accessible reviews that are this positive do mean something. You’re right that crowdpleasers don’t need them as much, but this is more of a critical darling that’s *also* mainstream, and very personal to many.
@@nate-it9xq but then, tying back to my original point, wasn’t The Farewell this exact kind of film? The critical acclaim for Past Lives isn’t overwhelming- it’s acclaimed, yes, but I’m not hearing critics call it a game changer. Critical/indie darlings that were released in the summer typically get overlooked come Oscar season. The last one to earn a Best Picture nomination was Boyhood- which was released a decade ago and was touted as a game changer and landmark in cinema. Past Lives doesn’t have that kind of acclaim and I think that will make it more difficult for it to become a contender. Maybe I’m wrong though.
Honestly, Killers of the Flower Moon is the only one at the moment with a conventional narrative I can see, particularly for supporting actress tying into its story. I still think there could be a breakout hit we're overlooking. Like I remember calling EEAAO last year. I can't see movies like Air or Oppenheimer winning best picture since both are more conventional nominees relative to the recent slate of nominees with a more of a modern societal message. If Barbie's reviews are golden I would definitely not sleep on it. It likely will have a feminist message wrapped in a very smart marketing campaign and some standout performances. Big Truman Show vibes, even if it was snubbed the year it was nominated.
Idk if it would be better to talk about this now, or closer to awards season, but I wonder if you could make a video regarding how the WGA & SAG-AFTRA strikes will impact this awards season. With tensions high and actors standing in solidarity not promoting their movies, will that affect smaller movies by them not having enough exposure, or will the opposite happen since now major blockbusters aren’t able to promote their movies through their actors as well? Would this increase the chances of movies being promoted prior to the strike getting nominated? How did the 2007-08 writers strike affect that awards season? And would it be a big talking point in acceptance speeches from actors and writers? Regardless of what happens, I support both strikes. 👍👍
Great episode! I have been curious about The Bikeriders, as I had it noted pretty early this year as a possible contender. It's not mentioned much despite a great cast and director.
I really have a bold prediction that Maestro may not be nominated for best picture but I could be wrong. I’m hearing From past Test Screenings that Bradley Cooper May be going for Oscar Gold. Great video guys 👍
Frankly, I think it’s gonna bomb hard. Test screening results have me feeling like it’s only gonna see makeup and actor, and frankly I can see it blanking completely. If Cooper seems like he WANTS an Oscar through the movie, the Academy might just be like “no.” and give no noms
I currently don't have Maestro in any category. The only above the line category I think it has a realistic shot to get nominated in is Lead Actor, besides that I'm very confident that this is one of this year's Babylon/The Son/Amsterdam/Bardo etc.
I will say even if piano lesson comes out This year John David Washington played the role on Broadway last winter and he wasn’t even nominated for a Tony even though he was brilliant in the part
don't underestimate Oppenheimer for Visual Effects. If you're a stem major (im computer engineering) and you've taken a thermodynamics or advanced physics class then you know there's lots of opportunities in this movie for incredible visuals, particularly ionizing radiation and nuclear fission which can be very beautiful if deadly phenomena. Dont go into the movie thinking there'll just be an explosion i think Nolan has more up his sleeve!
With Emily Blunt I can see why because Nolan usually struggles with female characters, but the way they underestimated Downey Jr and even mocked people for predicting him… I just don’t get it
@@seankoontz4235 i can see that with emily blunt but to me i always had the feeling she was going to have moments in the film that would stand out, i never dismissed any of the supporting candidates because we just didn’t know how their roles were going to play out.
I understand why you’re cautious but The Zone of Interest is not Foxcatcher or Spencer. It had a NINETY-EIGHT on Metacritic. There’s a very real possibility this ends up being the film of the decade. It’s getting in, no matter what. Even if it occurs via the ‘The Tree of Life’ route, it’s happening.
Big gambles here, but I grabbed Glenn Howerton in supporting and Miyazaki in director with super bets on both at 100/1. I’ll change down the line, but I’m feeling high-risk, high-reward.
Putting Howerton in Best Supporting Actor is CATEGORY FRAUD, though. F that. Put Howerton in BEST ACTOR, cowards. >_< Yes on AT LAST slotting in Hayao Miyazaki for Best Director.
@@Wired4Life2 since I guess we’re reposting our comments… listen, I wish he was in actor, but he can’t compete with that crowd. I’ll take actor -> supporting fraud for a small indie (with a lot of heart) over what Williams pulled last year any day
@@devdanferguson7616 Convenience, man. Gotta love it. I don’t like it overall, but an admitted+borderline Supporting character prevailing in Lead takes balls. (But yeah, in hindsight, Williams would’ve walked away with Supporting, instead of an overt career award to Jamie Lee Curtis, who’s inferior to Stephanie Hsu in the same film.) Lead going Supporting is just cowardly, not to mention condescending to non-A-list thespians and kids. I despise it with all my being. NGL, I’d rather Howerton lose in Best Actor than win in Best Supporting Actor.
@@Wired4Life2while I would normally agree, this is a unique situation with the fact that BlackBerry is a low-grossing IFC film. Glenn getting into supporting would still be extremely impressive considering he’s still competing with juggernauts like Robert De Niro and Ryan Gosling in the category. If an actor/actress like Williams category frauded from lead to supporting, I would be upset, but for Glenn Howerton? Nah, he deserves any nomination
@@devdanferguson7616 But that’s the thing, though. Williams actually was Supporting in _The Fabelmans._ Gabriel LaBelle’s Sammy is the sole Lead POV. Category-frauding Williams from Supporting to Lead based on her stature and billing was all for nothing.
I think a lot of people (including myself)) were not considering Kingsley Ben-Adir for a nomination cause the Bob Marley movie is releasing in 2024, but after checking the IMDb page it says its expected to release 12 of January and the Oscar nominees will be in the 23 January. If the movie releases when expected he has a chance to get a nomination because everyone will be talking about him. But if the movie is delayed he is out.. Do you guys think he might get a nom if the movie releases on 12 January?
No. That is not how it works. In order to qualify, a film just needs qualifying run of a one-week theatrical release in one of six U.S. cities before December 31st. And the studio will do that for Bob Marley as well. Still Alice (for which Julianne Moore won her Oscar) had it's official limited release January 16th 2015 and it played in LA and NYC in December 2014 to qualify. I watched it the Angelica Film Center in NYC back then. The Worst Person in the World had it's official release February 4th 2022 and it scored two Oscar nominations that same month. People take public release dates way too seriously when it comes to predictions. If you think public opinion influences industry/press voting then go ahead but awards voters get to see everything before the end of the year at voters' screenings or via screening links anyway.
@@pb.j.1753 you are right, completely forgot about that. They will make a limited release for the Bob Marley movie for sure. I think Kingsley Ben-Adir has a good chance to be nominated with all of this considered.
Yall re SLEEPING on Rosamund Pike. If she goves a juicy performance in Salt burn, she can easily win. People are still NOT OVER her Gone Girl masterclass and she didnt even win a single award over Julianne Moore. If she fdts a Supporting nod, She can very easily win
Killers Of The Flower Moon I'm sure get nominations for the Oscars 2024 Best Picture but win same fate as the The Irishman.. Either Barbie or Next Goal Wins my bet/want for win Picture
Just found your channel, been watching previous years to see what you thought! Question: How early do you submit your gold derby predictions? I want to do well, but also feel like I earned my place, you know?
the comparison isnt fair. Women Talking was a great movie and was paid dust in terms of acting awards, whereas I think Color Purple will do great in terms of acting consideration even if the movie doesn't turn out to be great.
It’s based on a musical that is based on a movie. People seem to be forgetting that this isn’t an update of a classic like WSS, or the first adaptation of a classic like Les Mis. It’s also from a first-time director. I’m predicting this will get a middling reaction when it screens, just like Women Talking, and then drop out of everyone’s acting predictions. It’ll end up with maybe a Picture nomination and a couple of techs at best.
The main point of my comparison is that everybody expects these to be big contenders with multiple acting noms all season long until they screen and people respond negatively to blatant Oscar bait.
But Oppenheimer is his other historic movie, in the same category as Dunkirk, while most of his other stuff was genre. As long as it’s good, I fully expect Oppenheimer to be nominated.
Okay, since you guys are not doing it, I’m going to try to predict the barbenheimer metascores since the embargos are almost over…. Barbie will open with a high 70s I feel like, cuz it’s going to be divisive and not for everyone so I’ll guess a 77/78! Oppenheimer I think it’s gonna do better, but I don’t think it’s going to be as high as Dunkirk was so I’m thinking a high 80s… I’ll guess 86/87!
i just saw Asteroid City, and boy oh boy, it might the best Wes film. He is not a meme director, there's actually much deep thought put into that screenplay. Sounding fun (which it does) is difficult part, and he makes it sound fun. Its beyond aesthetics (while its obviously gorgeous aesthetically). Some days before I watched Spiderverse. I enjoyed it, i praise the technical achievement. But it just felt so overstuffed that I felt bored, there were times I felt into my mind, instead of watching it. That didn't happen with Asteroid City. Air, while not being bad, is zero bold, its a matinee film that could have been done in the 90s. Im only sold for Matt and Viola's nominations, if the competition is non stiff. Meanwhile, there are two other films rarely talked about, which are Rye Lane, probably the best romantic comedy of the last twenty years (if we count out Licorice Pizza) and Suzume, which is a magnificent piece of storytelling and animation. Also, Mia Goth supporting character for Infinity Pool and Joaquin's in Beau is Afraid are being paid dust (i mean, i get these films are divisive, even I have problems with both) (for reference, my favorite films from last year were Tar, Banshees, and the wrongfully snubbed Decision to Leave)
Barbie is based on an IP with a predetermined world and set of characters. Napoleon is based on true events, meaning if it adapts the events directly rather than relying on a previous interpretation (historical literature, a documentary, etc.), they consider it as Original.
I doubt it. It’s not going nearly as well at the box office (still OK) and it’s a pretty standard « what if » romance. It’s not going to have the same type of passion EEAAO had.
I seriously doubt it. It's more like this year's Aftersun in terms of being a quiet, naturalistic indie that is enjoyed by critics. EEAAO grossed over $140 million. Way more people have seen it compared to Past Lives which has only grossed $6 million. The only thing they have in common is that they feature Asian characters and are highly rated on LB
@@pb.j.1753agreed. I hated EEAAO and have Past Lives as my number 3 of the year so far (behind ATSV and neck-and-neck with Asteroid City, just losing out for originality).
I just looked at all the best picture box office numbers since 2010 and the winners always get past the break even point (Budget times 2.5). Right now the top 4 are Past Lives, KOFM, Color Purple, and Oppenheimer. Based on the budgets of the films Past Lives needs to make 80ish million, KOFM thanks to Apple TV only needs 300 instead of 500 million. And both Color Purple and Oppenheimer need 250 million. Personally I think unless Past Lives gains a ton of momentum, Oppenheimer is the only one with a chance of getting past the break even point and potentially even doubling it!
I love Past Lives but I don't think it will win Picture. No directorial debut film has won since American Beauty in 2000 and I don't think Past Lives is THAT iconic to beat everyone else this season.
@@ChrolliForever Ehhh, I’m less sure about that. Gosling only has one or two scenes where he dominates without Robbie also there, whereas there is much of the film where we’re just with Robbie.
I feel like everyone is underestimating the impact Kevin Costner’s Horizon could have on the Oscar race. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but I think given everything known about the project, it could be this year’s Hacksaw Ridge.
Guys, Robert Downey J.R's character was one of the most important people in Oppenheimers life, especially during the security hearings. DO NOT DOWNPLAY HIM.
I really don't get all the love and obsession for The Color Purple and Barrino. Right now, she is not in my Top 5. It's her first performance in a movie and she is directed by a music video director. And she is NOT an actress. Right now I don't fall in the trope "she is a beautiful singer" cause singing isn't acting and the Academy knows that (no Zegler or Hudson in Respect). Of course, I can be wrong, and I 'll be happy to change my mind once I see the film. My #1 is Huller. I also think people are overestimating Oppenheimer. Writing? Really? For a Nolan movie he wrote alone? Not happening! Blunt #6? I mean, can you name a Nolan in film in which a woman was actually a character?
@@pb.j.1753 I actually believe that he can't write a good character period, cause he can't write. But at least his male characters have, at least, a personality. Women ones are just stains on the screen. I can already predict Pugh's character to be just the brainless one who will make tons of question to Oppenheimer so that he can explain to us all the scientific rules and Blunt to be just his loving wife.
I thought Johansson’s character in The Prestige was well-done (yes, she primarily served a role in other characters stories, but that is what a supporting role does). I’m dubious of Nolan in writing because every one of his movies has a major story flaw (exception kind of being Dunkirk, which just kind of doesn’t have a story) but the trailers making the writing look good combined with the historic subject material makes me think it has a chance.
@@thrawncaedusl717 C'mon, Johannson in Prestige isn't a role, and it shows the fact that we can't even remember her name despite being very fundamental for the story. And for Oppenheimer in screenpaly I just can't see it happening. Nolan is not a good writer and the trailer just confirms it. Most writing doesn't mean better, especially since rule #2 for writing is: less is more. And it doesn't seem to respect this rule with all those didactic/paternalistic dialogues
@@aqualcunopiaceclassico3201 not knowing the name of the character does not indicate bad writing (at least for me). I’m halfway through rewatching The Killing of a Sacred Deer and could not tell you any of the characters name. Historically, Nolan’s writing has not been great, but it also hasn’t been so terrible that he could never write an Oscar level script.
@nafischowdhury7375 It’s easy to say that, but Lily Gladstone was talking about it a few days ago and it seems like the “important” factor just might push it
@@nafischowdhury7375if williams was up for supporting actress, she would beat JLC easily. But I am still sour about it that condon didn't win the oscar and I loved EEAAO.
No way. Armageddon Time was dead on arrival in Cannes with ok reviews and no buzz to win a prize. Zone of Interest was immediately a Palme D’Or contender and had rave reviews because it is formally and narratively radical. Armageddon Time is conventional in comparison.
Am I the only one surprised there isn’t more Oscar hype for Napoleon? I know Ridley Scott has been more miss than hit lately, but this seems perfectly in his wheel house for an historical epic with an even bigger scale than Gladiator
Napoleon and The Killer are underrated. Napoleon has a good package with Ridley Scott, Joaquin, and below the line nominations. The only thing is that the stills released so far look kind of muddy. The Killer is a genre movie but apparently the book delves into some heavy themes. With Fassbender as the lead and Fincher at this matured point of his career, I'm sure it will be more than a genre movie and the potential to be a masterpiece.
@@pb.j.1753 House of Gucci got bad reviews and The Last Duel was a small movie that came out during the height of Covid. Napoleon is a larger scale project.
@@purekinemaIn hindsight we are all smarter aren’t we. Except your learnings are a little weird. How is Last Duel small? It had a 100 million dollar budget. If something like Last Duel is small to you, what are indie films like Moonlight and Get Out? And how is it a factor that it came out during the pandemic? And how is it a factor that Napoleon expensive to begin with? Doesn’t mean it’s any good and will get good reviews. Bad reviews don’t always mean a film can’t do well at awards. Look at Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book and Lady Gaga did get a Best Actress nomination everywhere except at the Oscars. The fact is both films were expected to do sth at the Oscars and bombed in their own ways.
BlackBerry is by far the best movie of the year so far. Nice job conveniently not mentioning Howerton's HCA mid-year win over the other contenders. He should be winning Best Actor, but if he's really going Supporting, then that should be a cakewalk for him. But it never works out like that. He's extraordinary. Spider-Verse is annoyingly overrated. It's losing momentum already and will be forgotten by the fall. Past Lives is the real deal, but it reminds me of First Cow, Mass, Aftersun, etc as the critic and/or Twitter favorite that is too small to really make waves. Gold Derby did a good enough job for this point in the year, but there will be several we don't even know about yet that will crash the party. Cheers!
"Original" just means not based on any material previously published. The "Best Original Screenplay" doesn't mean most original idea, it means best screenplay that's not an adaptation.
@@martinmuller397 That is true. However, movies like Promising Young Woman, EEAAO, Get Out won because they were the most original idea, at least to voters. Past Lives fits the first criteria, but not the second.
@@tonyg76 The category is Best Original Screenplay, not Most Original Screenplay. It's all about the execution of an idea that matters in storytelling.
SpiderVerse was great, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon both look great However, this looks like a weaker year overall. Last year was alot better
@@seankoontz4235Exactly, the first half especially is the best we've had in forever! BlackBerry, Falcon Lake, Sisu, A Thousand and One, Past Lives, etc. If even a handful of the top contenders hit, 2022 will have been crushed by 2023
Catching up on your videos. Funny hearing your RDJ impressions given everyone is now like "instant win! instant win!" for his performance in Oppenheimer.
The arms are getting bigger every video!
Watching this in the future after watching Oppemheimer and seeing them think Robert Downey Jr. is a glorified cameo is adorable
I know everybody says how gorgeous Brother Bro is (and he is), but you, Cole, are very handsome yourself! Love you guys! This is exciting, looking at the lineup of movies this year!
Time for brother bro to do this shirtless
Guys, lookin' good! Been lifting?
That's what I thought too 🙃
The short shorts, so hot.
Great video too lol
17:52 well that didn’t age well
17:40 is the real thing that aged terribly
They thought there was no shot in hell RDJ gets nominated yet he ends up sweeping the awards season
Can you guys please make a top 20 favorite movies of all time video!
I really hope howerton gets a great campaign.
Same. Grabbed him in supporting at 100/1 and put a super bet on the category, after the Vanity Fair article that confirmed he will be campaigning, Im all here for it. BlackBerry is honestly in my Letterboxd top 4, I adore every ounce of that movie
Putting Howerton in Best Supporting Actor is CATEGORY FRAUD, though. F that. Put Howerton in BEST ACTOR, cowards. >_
@@Wired4Life2 listen, I wish he was in actor, but he can’t compete with that crowd. I’ll take actor -> supporting fraud for a small indie (with a lot of heart) over what Williams pulled last year any day
Time for our Golden God to get nominated!
@@benabramowitz18 In Best ACTOR.
I’d rather Howerton lose in Best Actor than win in Best Supporting Actor. FUCK Lead=>Supporting category fraud.
I honestly feel like people are putting Spiderverse higher than it should be, and people are not paying enough attention to The Boy And The Heron. Thinking back to 2002, they nominated The Two Towers but gave it barely any Oscars. What did they do? They waited for the final in the trilogy and then gave it the praise it deserved. There is also the stigma against superhero movies that the academy holds. For The Boy And The Heron, it has been getting rave reviews and is opening Tiff. It also has a compelling story for people to vote for the final film by Hayao Miyazaki.
I'll only be sold on Spider-Verse for picture once I see the response to How Do You Live in Japan's release. I have a feeling like HDYL could be stronger than Spider-Verse at the end of the day by virtue of being an original screenplay and getting into that category easier. I could see HDYL getting international, animated, score, and original screenplay nominations which would be a stronger candidate than Spider-Verse.
Same here. Frankly, there’s a narrative behind Miyazaki getting into director. Nabbed him at 100/1 in there because frankly it’s a hopediction but I need it.
Could the Screenwriters branch debate on whether _HDYL_ is an adaptation or not?
@@Wired4Life2 it’s been confirmed to be original. The book plays into the plot, but it’s not adapted
@@devdanferguson7616 My hot take is that I'm putting him at #1 in my Director list. If the movie takes off there's a strong narrative to award him Best Director
@@Wired4Life2 it is not. It is an original story that has nothing in common with the content of the book, simply people and their stories should intertwine with th book in the movie.
I’m confident that Past Lives will do well in Independent Spirit Awards but it’s difficult to appeal to EVERYONE like EEAAO so it will be nominated but not win…😢
Past Lives has serious The Farewell vibes. It seems like a contender now, but will be a nonstarter come actual awards season.
@@k-203_DV It's got better reviews, and is far more personal than The Farewell. I don't think they're comparable.
@@nate-it9xq reviews really don’t mean much when it comes to Oscars - otherwise films like Joker, Elvis, and Trial of the Chicago 7 (which weren’t exactly loved by critics) wouldn’t have been nominated and films like No Bears, First Cow, and Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn would have. What matters is how mainstream friendly and crowd pleasing a film is. Past Lives might be mainstream friendly, but is by no means a crowd pleaser. But then, I might be speaking with bias because I thought the film was mediocre.
@@k-203_DV Sure, but when a film is accessible reviews that are this positive do mean something. You’re right that crowdpleasers don’t need them as much, but this is more of a critical darling that’s *also* mainstream, and very personal to many.
@@nate-it9xq but then, tying back to my original point, wasn’t The Farewell this exact kind of film? The critical acclaim for Past Lives isn’t overwhelming- it’s acclaimed, yes, but I’m not hearing critics call it a game changer. Critical/indie darlings that were released in the summer typically get overlooked come Oscar season. The last one to earn a Best Picture nomination was Boyhood- which was released a decade ago and was touted as a game changer and landmark in cinema. Past Lives doesn’t have that kind of acclaim and I think that will make it more difficult for it to become a contender. Maybe I’m wrong though.
I finally looked up what Gold Derby is. Made some Barbieheimer 2-ish predictions.
Honestly, Killers of the Flower Moon is the only one at the moment with a conventional narrative I can see, particularly for supporting actress tying into its story. I still think there could be a breakout hit we're overlooking.
Like I remember calling EEAAO last year.
I can't see movies like Air or Oppenheimer winning best picture since both are more conventional nominees relative to the recent slate of nominees with a more of a modern societal message.
If Barbie's reviews are golden I would definitely not sleep on it. It likely will have a feminist message wrapped in a very smart marketing campaign and some standout performances. Big Truman Show vibes, even if it was snubbed the year it was nominated.
Oppenheimer reviews say otherwise right now. Might just be a front runner.
Robert Downey Jr. Is getting nominated for Oppenheimer 100%
Yes, things have changed since the opening of Barbenheimer.
I too have no idea why they never marketed his role in the movie even though he's in essence a co-lead
Idk if it would be better to talk about this now, or closer to awards season, but I wonder if you could make a video regarding how the WGA & SAG-AFTRA strikes will impact this awards season.
With tensions high and actors standing in solidarity not promoting their movies, will that affect smaller movies by them not having enough exposure, or will the opposite happen since now major blockbusters aren’t able to promote their movies through their actors as well?
Would this increase the chances of movies being promoted prior to the strike getting nominated?
How did the 2007-08 writers strike affect that awards season? And would it be a big talking point in acceptance speeches from actors and writers?
Regardless of what happens, I support both strikes. 👍👍
rdj is getting a lot of praise
Great episode! I have been curious about The Bikeriders, as I had it noted pretty early this year as a possible contender. It's not mentioned much despite a great cast and director.
Brother bro is mr peanut butter
RDJ coming in for a nomination 🔥
We need another retrospective video 🙏
Killers of the Flower Moon! Let’s goooooooo
I’ve heard The Holdovers might be going to Venice and TIFF.
TBH: with the Alexander Payne controversy, I'm not sure if The Holdovers will do all that well with the Oscars!
3:12 spider verse didn’t even win animated feature lol
GoldDerby might be largely correct, but the Awards Expert app might be more correct. 😉
Manifesting an android release
I really have a bold prediction that Maestro may not be nominated for best picture but I could be wrong. I’m hearing From past Test Screenings that Bradley Cooper May be going for Oscar Gold. Great video guys 👍
Both of them have been predicting that for months now, so it’s not that bold😁
Frankly, I think it’s gonna bomb hard. Test screening results have me feeling like it’s only gonna see makeup and actor, and frankly I can see it blanking completely. If Cooper seems like he WANTS an Oscar through the movie, the Academy might just be like “no.” and give no noms
Best Actor will be interesting now that the actors’ strike is officially happening, meaning Bradley won’t be able to campaign his ass off
@@seankoontz4235 honestly, good, I don’t want to see him begging for an oscar for months on end
I currently don't have Maestro in any category. The only above the line category I think it has a realistic shot to get nominated in is Lead Actor, besides that I'm very confident that this is one of this year's Babylon/The Son/Amsterdam/Bardo etc.
It's funny hearing your thoughts on Robert Downey Jr after all the Oppenheimer reviews just came out saying he's coming for supporting actor 😂
I hope Napoleon is good enough to be a contender.
The Last Duel was the best movie of that year and they didn't give a rat's ass about it, so I highly doubt Napoleon is gonna move the needle.
I will say even if piano lesson comes out This year John David Washington played the role on Broadway last winter and he wasn’t even nominated for a Tony even though he was brilliant in the part
I saw it last December. The performances were much better than the play itself which was good but not great
@@nicholasbrake4189 you saw both the movie and play?
@@nafischowdhury7375 The play
I’m almost certain The Piano Lesson is confirmed 2024 by Netflix
Samuel L. Jackson wins supporting actor in 2025 😁
don't underestimate Oppenheimer for Visual Effects. If you're a stem major (im computer engineering) and you've taken a thermodynamics or advanced physics class then you know there's lots of opportunities in this movie for incredible visuals, particularly ionizing radiation and nuclear fission which can be very beautiful if deadly phenomena. Dont go into the movie thinking there'll just be an explosion i think Nolan has more up his sleeve!
them proclaiming for so long that blunt and downey jr aren’t a thing and then the reviews came out
With Emily Blunt I can see why because Nolan usually struggles with female characters, but the way they underestimated Downey Jr and even mocked people for predicting him… I just don’t get it
@@seankoontz4235 i can see that with emily blunt but to me i always had the feeling she was going to have moments in the film that would stand out, i never dismissed any of the supporting candidates because we just didn’t know how their roles were going to play out.
Jodie Comer didn't win a lot of emmys. She won lead actress for Killing Eve in 2019
She won a Tony recently lol, she's 2/3 for the triple of crown.
I understand why you’re cautious but The Zone of Interest is not Foxcatcher or Spencer. It had a NINETY-EIGHT on Metacritic. There’s a very real possibility this ends up being the film of the decade. It’s getting in, no matter what. Even if it occurs via the ‘The Tree of Life’ route, it’s happening.
The only thing is can A24 get two films in
@@seankoontz4235 I don’t think they even need to campaign The Zone of Interest; it would be like Drive My Car, just through pure passion for the art.
if blackberry gets acting nom it should be for matt johnson.
For Best Actor I’m starting to lean towards maybe Paul Giamatti winning the Oscar.
did you see the trailer? it’s probably a nomination but the baity performances are going to overshadow him
That would be a dream come. True
I honestly don't know what gonna happen with this category this year, so I guess nothing is impossible?
Big gambles here, but I grabbed Glenn Howerton in supporting and Miyazaki in director with super bets on both at 100/1. I’ll change down the line, but I’m feeling high-risk, high-reward.
Putting Howerton in Best Supporting Actor is CATEGORY FRAUD, though. F that. Put Howerton in BEST ACTOR, cowards. >_<
Yes on AT LAST slotting in Hayao Miyazaki for Best Director.
@@Wired4Life2 since I guess we’re reposting our comments…
listen, I wish he was in actor, but he can’t compete with that crowd. I’ll take actor -> supporting fraud for a small indie (with a lot of heart) over what Williams pulled last year any day
@@devdanferguson7616 Convenience, man. Gotta love it.
I don’t like it overall, but an admitted+borderline Supporting character prevailing in Lead takes balls.
(But yeah, in hindsight, Williams would’ve walked away with Supporting, instead of an overt career award to Jamie Lee Curtis, who’s inferior to Stephanie Hsu in the same film.)
Lead going Supporting is just cowardly, not to mention condescending to non-A-list thespians and kids. I despise it with all my being.
NGL, I’d rather Howerton lose in Best Actor than win in Best Supporting Actor.
@@Wired4Life2while I would normally agree, this is a unique situation with the fact that BlackBerry is a low-grossing IFC film. Glenn getting into supporting would still be extremely impressive considering he’s still competing with juggernauts like Robert De Niro and Ryan Gosling in the category. If an actor/actress like Williams category frauded from lead to supporting, I would be upset, but for Glenn Howerton? Nah, he deserves any nomination
@@devdanferguson7616 But that’s the thing, though. Williams actually was Supporting in _The Fabelmans._ Gabriel LaBelle’s Sammy is the sole Lead POV.
Category-frauding Williams from Supporting to Lead based on her stature and billing was all for nothing.
I heard Color Purple might be getting delayed with the actors’ strike
Howerton supremacy
I think a lot of people (including myself)) were not considering Kingsley Ben-Adir for a nomination cause the Bob Marley movie is releasing in 2024, but after checking the IMDb page it says its expected to release 12 of January and the Oscar nominees will be in the 23 January. If the movie releases when expected he has a chance to get a nomination because everyone will be talking about him. But if the movie is delayed he is out.. Do you guys think he might get a nom if the movie releases on 12 January?
No. That is not how it works. In order to qualify, a film just needs qualifying run of a one-week theatrical release in one of six U.S. cities before December 31st. And the studio will do that for Bob Marley as well.
Still Alice (for which Julianne Moore won her Oscar) had it's official limited release January 16th 2015 and it played in LA and NYC in December 2014 to qualify. I watched it the Angelica Film Center in NYC back then.
The Worst Person in the World had it's official release February 4th 2022 and it scored two Oscar nominations that same month.
People take public release dates way too seriously when it comes to predictions. If you think public opinion influences industry/press voting then go ahead but awards voters get to see everything before the end of the year at voters' screenings or via screening links anyway.
Releasing that late in the season could actually end up hurting its chances. Won’t have enough time to build up proper buzz.
@@pb.j.1753 you are right, completely forgot about that. They will make a limited release for the Bob Marley movie for sure. I think Kingsley Ben-Adir has a good chance to be nominated with all of this considered.
Bob marly realese trailer bevore tow days wstch it
Yall re SLEEPING on Rosamund Pike. If she goves a juicy performance in Salt burn, she can easily win. People are still NOT OVER her Gone Girl masterclass and she didnt even win a single award over Julianne Moore. If she fdts a Supporting nod, She can very easily win
BLACKBERRY is amazing...!
I'm waiting for the noms for Maestro! ❤
Napoleon is sweeping since KOTFM, Dune 2 and Color Purple will be pushed back LOL
💀
Killers Of The Flower Moon I'm sure get nominations for the Oscars 2024 Best Picture but win same fate as the The Irishman..
Either Barbie or Next Goal Wins my bet/want for win Picture
I think flowers only win will be in supporting actress (Lily is WINNING,i'm 100% of that)
@@CRM-114 don't be so sure
Just found your channel, been watching previous years to see what you thought! Question: How early do you submit your gold derby predictions? I want to do well, but also feel like I earned my place, you know?
The collaboration not on there at all and I think that’s being underestimated a little bit
Am I the only one who thinks The Color Purple is going to be this year’s Women Talking, at best?
Pls expand
the comparison isnt fair. Women Talking was a great movie and was paid dust in terms of acting awards, whereas I think Color Purple will do great in terms of acting consideration even if the movie doesn't turn out to be great.
It’s based on a musical that is based on a movie. People seem to be forgetting that this isn’t an update of a classic like WSS, or the first adaptation of a classic like Les Mis. It’s also from a first-time director. I’m predicting this will get a middling reaction when it screens, just like Women Talking, and then drop out of everyone’s acting predictions. It’ll end up with maybe a Picture nomination and a couple of techs at best.
The main point of my comparison is that everybody expects these to be big contenders with multiple acting noms all season long until they screen and people respond negatively to blatant Oscar bait.
Don’t Look Up is another good example of this.
I usually don't give a flying f about Wes Anderson films but Asteroid City was decent enough to maybe get into Picture.
I hope it is in Oscar discussions at least and isn’t just written off as “not an Oscar movie”, when quality-wise it absolutely is.
Nolan has made many films now an only Dunkirk got a Best Picture nom. I don't think Oppenheimer is that safe.
My same thoughts. I have it #10, but rn I don't think it is going to make it.
Inception for best picture nom
@@mxaxr_ You are right. Thanks!
But Oppenheimer is his other historic movie, in the same category as Dunkirk, while most of his other stuff was genre. As long as it’s good, I fully expect Oppenheimer to be nominated.
Inception got a BP nod too.Oppenheimer is a super safe bet at this point
Brother bro, it’s time you make a shirtless video, those arms demand it
I’ll ask one more time 🙏🏻
What about one of those videos predicting the metascores of unreleased films from the season before Barbie and Oppenheimer??
Okay, since you guys are not doing it, I’m going to try to predict the barbenheimer metascores since the embargos are almost over….
Barbie will open with a high 70s I feel like, cuz it’s going to be divisive and not for everyone so I’ll guess a 77/78!
Oppenheimer I think it’s gonna do better, but I don’t think it’s going to be as high as Dunkirk was so I’m thinking a high 80s… I’ll guess 86/87!
Banshees Of Inisherin, Tár, and The Fablemans should’ve waited a year to come out because this year seems ho-hum 😬
Sandra is a good contender…. But lets not sleep on fantasia
i just saw Asteroid City, and boy oh boy, it might the best Wes film. He is not a meme director, there's actually much deep thought put into that screenplay. Sounding fun (which it does) is difficult part, and he makes it sound fun. Its beyond aesthetics (while its obviously gorgeous aesthetically). Some days before I watched Spiderverse. I enjoyed it, i praise the technical achievement. But it just felt so overstuffed that I felt bored, there were times I felt into my mind, instead of watching it. That didn't happen with Asteroid City.
Air, while not being bad, is zero bold, its a matinee film that could have been done in the 90s. Im only sold for Matt and Viola's nominations, if the competition is non stiff.
Meanwhile, there are two other films rarely talked about, which are Rye Lane, probably the best romantic comedy of the last twenty years (if we count out Licorice Pizza) and Suzume, which is a magnificent piece of storytelling and animation.
Also, Mia Goth supporting character for Infinity Pool and Joaquin's in Beau is Afraid are being paid dust (i mean, i get these films are divisive, even I have problems with both)
(for reference, my favorite films from last year were Tar, Banshees, and the wrongfully snubbed Decision to Leave)
Why is something like Barbie considered adapted screenplay but something like Napoleon is original?
Barbie is based on an IP with a predetermined world and set of characters.
Napoleon is based on true events, meaning if it adapts the events directly rather than relying on a previous interpretation (historical literature, a documentary, etc.), they consider it as Original.
I’m worried Past Lives will have the same toxic fandom that EEAAO did. Really hope not
I doubt it. It’s not going nearly as well at the box office (still OK) and it’s a pretty standard « what if » romance. It’s not going to have the same type of passion EEAAO had.
Can we please stop comparing these two just because they are from A24 and are about Asian people? They are good in their own unique ways.
I seriously doubt it. It's more like this year's Aftersun in terms of being a quiet, naturalistic indie that is enjoyed by critics. EEAAO grossed over $140 million. Way more people have seen it compared to Past Lives which has only grossed $6 million. The only thing they have in common is that they feature Asian characters and are highly rated on LB
@@pb.j.1753agreed. I hated EEAAO and have Past Lives as my number 3 of the year so far (behind ATSV and neck-and-neck with Asteroid City, just losing out for originality).
I agree. The EEAAO fandom was toxic.
I just looked at all the best picture box office numbers since 2010 and the winners always get past the break even point (Budget times 2.5). Right now the top 4 are Past Lives, KOFM, Color Purple, and Oppenheimer. Based on the budgets of the films Past Lives needs to make 80ish million, KOFM thanks to Apple TV only needs 300 instead of 500 million. And both Color Purple and Oppenheimer need 250 million. Personally I think unless Past Lives gains a ton of momentum, Oppenheimer is the only one with a chance of getting past the break even point and potentially even doubling it!
I love Past Lives but I don't think it will win Picture. No directorial debut film has won since American Beauty in 2000 and I don't think Past Lives is THAT iconic to beat everyone else this season.
Can they still do the Oscars if the strike is still happening by then?
It’s not gonna last that long. Thousands and thousands of actors and performers can not afford to not work for that long.
SOUND OF FREEDOM!
Putting Howerton in Best Supporting Actor is CATEGORY FRAUD, though. F that. Put Howerton in BEST ACTOR, cowards. >_
Liking about category fraud. Gosling is lead, not supporting hate category fraud.
@@ChrolliForever Ehhh, I’m less sure about that. Gosling only has one or two scenes where he dominates without Robbie also there, whereas there is much of the film where we’re just with Robbie.
I’m more confident the marley movie gets in BP over holdovers
I feel like everyone is underestimating the impact Kevin Costner’s Horizon could have on the Oscar race. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, but I think given everything known about the project, it could be this year’s Hacksaw Ridge.
Guys, Robert Downey J.R's character was one of the most important people in Oppenheimers life, especially during the security hearings. DO NOT DOWNPLAY HIM.
Who cares?
He’s barely in the movie
Past Lives gonna dominate!
Why are they so high on The Holdovers i stg
yeah same.
I wish these "wokies" would set aside their biases and also talk about the, surprise smash-hit, "Sound of Freedom"!🤔
I really don't get all the love and obsession for The Color Purple and Barrino. Right now, she is not in my Top 5. It's her first performance in a movie and she is directed by a music video director. And she is NOT an actress. Right now I don't fall in the trope "she is a beautiful singer" cause singing isn't acting and the Academy knows that (no Zegler or Hudson in Respect). Of course, I can be wrong, and I 'll be happy to change my mind once I see the film. My #1 is Huller. I also think people are overestimating Oppenheimer. Writing? Really? For a Nolan movie he wrote alone? Not happening! Blunt #6? I mean, can you name a Nolan in film in which a woman was actually a character?
Nolan could not write a good female character if his life depended on it
@@pb.j.1753 I actually believe that he can't write a good character period, cause he can't write. But at least his male characters have, at least, a personality. Women ones are just stains on the screen. I can already predict Pugh's character to be just the brainless one who will make tons of question to Oppenheimer so that he can explain to us all the scientific rules and Blunt to be just his loving wife.
I thought Johansson’s character in The Prestige was well-done (yes, she primarily served a role in other characters stories, but that is what a supporting role does). I’m dubious of Nolan in writing because every one of his movies has a major story flaw (exception kind of being Dunkirk, which just kind of doesn’t have a story) but the trailers making the writing look good combined with the historic subject material makes me think it has a chance.
@@thrawncaedusl717 C'mon, Johannson in Prestige isn't a role, and it shows the fact that we can't even remember her name despite being very fundamental for the story. And for Oppenheimer in screenpaly I just can't see it happening. Nolan is not a good writer and the trailer just confirms it. Most writing doesn't mean better, especially since rule #2 for writing is: less is more. And it doesn't seem to respect this rule with all those didactic/paternalistic dialogues
@@aqualcunopiaceclassico3201 not knowing the name of the character does not indicate bad writing (at least for me). I’m halfway through rewatching The Killing of a Sacred Deer and could not tell you any of the characters name. Historically, Nolan’s writing has not been great, but it also hasn’t been so terrible that he could never write an Oscar level script.
Spiderverse will NOT get nominated for Best Pic! Fearless Forecast! Stop hyping it. It will just be relegated to Best Animated Film
Killers will sweep this year I’m calling it
Couldn’t help but notice it’s number 1 in literally all of its categories 😮
it's gonna have the early frontrunner curse kinda similar to The Fabelmans.
@nafischowdhury7375 It’s easy to say that, but Lily Gladstone was talking about it a few days ago and it seems like the “important” factor just might push it
@@seankoontz4235 lily gladstone is the strongest bet for this movie. and I agree this has a better chance than The Fabelmans.
@@nafischowdhury7375if williams was up for supporting actress, she would beat JLC easily. But I am still sour about it that condon didn't win the oscar and I loved EEAAO.
I really strongly feel The Zone of Interest is this year's Armageddon Time
No way. Armageddon Time was dead on arrival in Cannes with ok reviews and no buzz to win a prize. Zone of Interest was immediately a Palme D’Or contender and had rave reviews because it is formally and narratively radical. Armageddon Time is conventional in comparison.
except The Zone of Interest will end up as the most acclaimed movie of the year which 'll be hard to ignore.
Am I the only one surprised there isn’t more Oscar hype for Napoleon? I know Ridley Scott has been more miss than hit lately, but this seems perfectly in his wheel house for an historical epic with an even bigger scale than Gladiator
you can't trust Ridley Scott. it could be a disaster or a masterpiece. plus his movies haven't done well with the academy in a long time.
Ridley Scott's prime is gone. Maybe a nom. For phoenix, BUT I think that's the maximum.
Why do you guys suddenly have such a high pitch?
Bryan Tyree Henry literally got a single nom for Causeway last year…don’t act like Glenn Howerton doesn’t have a chance, it’s July
The passion is absolutely there for Glenn I think
past lives WILL win. we'll make it win.
Doesn’t deserve it in the slightest
It’s a boring film. It’s not impactful enough to win an Oscar
Napoleon and The Killer are underrated.
Napoleon has a good package with Ridley Scott, Joaquin, and below the line nominations. The only thing is that the stills released so far look kind of muddy.
The Killer is a genre movie but apparently the book delves into some heavy themes. With Fassbender as the lead and Fincher at this matured point of his career, I'm sure it will be more than a genre movie and the potential to be a masterpiece.
I reeeally don’t understand why Napoleon is being slept on so much
House of Gucci and Last Duel were expected to be serious awards contenders and were eventually not.
@@pb.j.1753 House of Gucci got bad reviews and The Last Duel was a small movie that came out during the height of Covid. Napoleon is a larger scale project.
@@purekinemaIn hindsight we are all smarter aren’t we. Except your learnings are a little weird.
How is Last Duel small? It had a 100 million dollar budget. If something like Last Duel is small to you, what are indie films like Moonlight and Get Out? And how is it a factor that it came out during the pandemic? And how is it a factor that Napoleon expensive to begin with? Doesn’t mean it’s any good and will get good reviews.
Bad reviews don’t always mean a film can’t do well at awards. Look at Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book and Lady Gaga did get a Best Actress nomination everywhere except at the Oscars.
The fact is both films were expected to do sth at the Oscars and bombed in their own ways.
Ridley Scott’s Exodus bombed in every way and had a great package on paper and a huge budget. His films are not a regular at awards for a reason.
BlackBerry is by far the best movie of the year so far. Nice job conveniently not mentioning Howerton's HCA mid-year win over the other contenders. He should be winning Best Actor, but if he's really going Supporting, then that should be a cakewalk for him. But it never works out like that. He's extraordinary.
Spider-Verse is annoyingly overrated. It's losing momentum already and will be forgotten by the fall. Past Lives is the real deal, but it reminds me of First Cow, Mass, Aftersun, etc as the critic and/or Twitter favorite that is too small to really make waves.
Gold Derby did a good enough job for this point in the year, but there will be several we don't even know about yet that will crash the party. Cheers!
Putting Howerton in Best Supporting Actor is CATEGORY FRAUD. F that. Put Howerton in BEST ACTOR, cowards. >_
What is original about Past Lives? Seems like a more original script should win the category.
Is easy win for Past Lives for Original Screenplay so no competition
Again, why an easy win? Not the most original movie.
"Original" just means not based on any material previously published. The "Best Original Screenplay" doesn't mean most original idea, it means best screenplay that's not an adaptation.
@@martinmuller397 That is true. However, movies like Promising Young Woman, EEAAO, Get Out won because they were the most original idea, at least to voters. Past Lives fits the first criteria, but not the second.
@@tonyg76 The category is Best Original Screenplay, not Most Original Screenplay. It's all about the execution of an idea that matters in storytelling.
SpiderVerse was great, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon both look great
However, this looks like a weaker year overall. Last year was alot better
I actually think this year seems much better
🙄 yearly is barely half over
@@seankoontz4235Exactly, the first half especially is the best we've had in forever! BlackBerry, Falcon Lake, Sisu, A Thousand and One, Past Lives, etc. If even a handful of the top contenders hit, 2022 will have been crushed by 2023
I think this year is not a weak year, is a better year than last year. Last year was mediocre
Last year was a weak year. The only Oscar movie I liked was The Whale.
Neither EEAAO or ATSV are best picture worthy nominees LOL!
ATSV I think because I loved more but not Everything Everywhere
EEAAO already won best picture, you guys need to move on from the hate train.
@@nafischowdhury7375 Well, if the fans of the movie were not such movie snobs and treated us "haters" so badly we would. It is just a movie after all.
How does Ferrari not get into the top 10? It will probably be as good or better than ford v Ferrari. I think you guys are sleeping so hard on it!
Asteroid City was weird and a 🥱. Wes Anderson is an overrated director.