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There is still one major problem on the horizon: None of the airliners stiff flying in Russia will ever be allowed to operate external flights. After missing maintenance schedules, and with unofficial parts and servicing (if any) done, they can never be registered in another country. Boeing and Airbus now consider them as scrapped.
Really? how do you know this? where is that stated? if it was a Bus all that’s needed is proof that the vehicle has been tested and safe and then it’s back in business- even if the vehicle was cut and welded so it’s not hard for me to see why it would be any different in this case,
@@Hellofa6irdDidn't understand the video huh? These planes no longer comply with servicing and insurance requirements. They can't fly out of third world neo-fascist ruSSia. They won't be granted airspace access unless it's for them to be seized at the recieving airport.
@@Hellofa6irdRussia stole them. No one in their right mind is going to accept ANY documentation offered by such a corrupt, immoral organization. Those planes are indeed SCRAP.
Cant try anyone if they hide out in russia. Russia is just a modern day Tortuga. A pirate haven where any scum and villainy can hide out from law and order.
Betcha Russian airlines will have a bit of trouble leasing new planes in the future , even after the war ends. Same old story with insurance companies: "You're in good hands , just like a good neighbor , we're on your side" ...until you have a claim and then boy howdy, they will do anything to delay ,deny, or reduce the payment and spend too much trying to save $$.
Naw, Dictator Putin will ask Dictator Trump for planes and Dictator Trump will oblige. The dumb corporate CEOs who put Trump in power will discover that they made a mistake way too late.
Correction required Joe. Planes and their spare parts need to be maintained in strict compliance with manufacturer specifications for airworthiness currency - not warranty. Parts can have their own maintenance schedule and documentation requirements. If it's not valid - e.g. maintenance wasn't performed by a currently approved engineer, the part cannot be used, and must be scrapped; or if it's the airplane; it can't be flown or onsold. They can't be legally flown through the airspace of most countries in that state. Warranty is a completely different legal / commerical concept.
It is also not covered by warranry if servicing is non compliant. Russia xhanged its' laws to allow airworthy certificates but no insurance is possible; hence the court action between the owner and the airline company...
The planes don't even have to fail. Eventually they'll run out of suicidal pilots. It will reach a point where any sensible pilot will refuse the risk. They're using already used part for replacements. This will not have a happy ending.
Excellent report, Joe. Great explanations on leasing. Cannibalized aircraft are essentially worthless and a flying liability. For all intents and purposes, Aeroflot and the other airlines are no longer international carriers. Countries with airlines servicing Russian destinations or accepting flights from Russia may face secondary sanctions, including the termination of scheduled flights in and out of western airports. Certain eastern Mediterranean and Middle East countries come to mind along with the PRC. This could include commercial airlines and private charter carriers. Due to the growing liability, leasing companies may need to pay higher rates to insurance companies for aircraft entering Russian airspace.
Have you not yet understood how the sanctions regime has failed? And you want to pile on secondary sanctions to piss off other countries? The BRICS countries have a part of their core mandate, not to apply sanctions on other members. So China / India / UAE etc, will never sanction Russia, they will instead apply sanctions on the West in retaliation. Thereby starting a global trade war which the West cannot win.
When you say 'Cannibalized aircraft', do you mean the ones parts are pulled from or the ones that recieve parts from other aircraft? It's a big difference. The later is quite common even in the west, as long as the part was oprational before installation. Some smaller airlines even buy parts planes like one buys a parts car.
@@12pentaborane I'm saying: 'the ones that receive parts from other aircraft' that have not been re-tested or re-certified to international standards. The donor aircraft become a parts 'bone yard'.
@@gregash7683 I'm putting a lot of faith in the maintenance practices of Russian aviation, but I'm sure they have some sort of tracking of which parts came from where along with documents on what is and isn't a good part. If a slat needs to swapped I'm sure the Russian maintenance crew has a paper copy of the procedures and tolerances to remove, find, certify, and install one. If those planes are in Russia the maintenance equipment for them is probably also there, if the airlines want to keep what they have safe and up to code.
@@12pentaborane If Russian preventive maintenance is like the evidence of PM elsewhere in the country - especially in the military, I would buy a horse for travel
Back in the days of glasnost and perestroika, I traveled with Intourist across the former Soviet Union…One memorable internal flight on a Russian built plane, started with the pilots walking through to the cockpit carrying a short length of copper wire and a screwdriver. While during take off, having a number of the light cowlings falling from the ceiling on to passengers and the floor…apart from that, it was an uneventful flight.
The Soviet airline industry missed out on an opportunity. They could have offered this flight experience to Westerners looking for adventure in the former Soviet Union.
In the late 70'ies flying in Siberia (don't ask) I once was seated in some crazy loud Tupolev or Ilushin while about 10 Russians were standing in the gangway the whole flight, including takeoff and landing. Most bizarre thing I have ever experienced flying commercially. Second place goes to a European charter airline where a stewardess asked me if I would be willing to take someone else's child on my lap for the flight.
It's not just a matter of parts wearing out. Most parts are 'lifed' and have to be removed before that life expires so any parts they are cannibilising from other aircraft will also have part or all of their life expired. It's all illegal, those aircraft would be instantly grounded the minute they leave russian airspace!
Irianians and China will let them fly over there and other Russia aligned states. But yes the Airspace for those Airplanes is closed. Russia's only Option is to get it's own Aircraft Passenger Aircraft Production running, they have a Chance as long as corruption doesn't impede it to much, they might even get a good Market in China or Iran for their Yakovlev MC-21 as it is International compliant but missed it's certification for Easa and FAA by 2-4 Month as both Organisations stopped Certifications for Russian Airplanes in March 2022. Russia has a chance but most likely throw it away as it has now a workers shortage and everything goes into the war, when not founds go into privat pockets instead of important projects. I give Russia a 5% Chance that they got the Yakovlev MC-21 Production line running in 2025 and at full capacity in 2026.
After my father was aged out of flying passenger aircraft, he went on to fly for these leasing companies, effectively repossessing planes all over the world. I wonder what he thinks of this. I'll have to ask him and see if he still remembers. Dementia is a cruel bastard.
If Russia has seized these planes, then could the lease companies not put claims against frozen Russian assets in the West? Same for the insurance companies? (Though I’d prefer these assets go to rebuild Ukraine.)
Sadly there is a lot of people queueing for those assets already. quik mafs say 400 planes at 200M each is 80B already. Add ukraine rebuilding and continuous military aid until this ends and there isn't a whole lot left even if we take every single cent of it (as we should, to be clear) Russian economy is/was roughly the size of Italy before this started, a middle of the road european country. They don't have magical unlimited piles of gold as much as they would like to believe so and most of it in the oligarchs hands anyway.
@arlenbell4376 Yes, which in this case means pretty much never as nobody is going to take a risk when they have proven they will screw around and lose them money.
Great; Chinese aircraft. We've seen the Tofu apartment blocks, we've seen the meccano (no insult to Meccano, they were designed as toys) bridges, we've seen the airborn EV's, witnessed the fake everything, now it appears we're going so see unseaworthy aircraft 🙈. China, where even the China can't hold hot water...
@@WinnipegOne177 You mean like Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Air Serbia, Beijing Capital, China Eastern, Air China, Xiamen Air, Air Arabia, El Al, Flydubai and many others that are doing business right now?
The standard operating procedure for insurance companies: 1. Offer coverage 2. Collect premiums 3. Don't pay out claims This is how they all work. It's just Ferengi rule of acquisition #1: Once you have their money, never give it back.
@@punzer They all do; it is called Reinsurance and the biggest owner of the reinsurer giant is Warren Buffet ! He's not silly ! Was in the industry a long time ago ! So was I.
None of the 450 aircrafts that was stolen, have any value outside Russia. The moment one of these crafts lands in a wastern airport, it will be grounded, due to lack of transperancy in the maintenance and spares. Upgrading them is close to impossible and at least extremely expensive. These crafts are being cannibalised at increasing speed. Does anyone have the competence to guess when this will be a dead end ?
I came here to write exactly this! All these airframes are now scrap metal, $0.25 per kilogram. Too bad that aircraft are built to be relatively lightweight.
Iran does it with their F-14 fighters. Send by USA when Iran was still a friendly Nation. While they don't fly as much as airliners they still undergo wear and tear. Seems they still have some flying.
Excellent summary! The only relevant Chinese large aircraft manufacturer is COMAC and they have zero capacity to supply planes to Russia; furthermore, COMAC relies almost entirely on western parts, tech, avionics, etc. to assemble their planes, and they are currently barred by their western suppliers from re-selling onward to Russia.
There are two more aspects on this: 1. I don't think that any of the financing/leasing companies (and the manufacturers) will touch anything Russian for a very long time. So, even if the war is over tomorrow, Russian will not be able to buy new planes. 2. Aeroflot worked very professionally over the last 25 years or so to become a respected and safe airline with on-time flights. They sported new aircraft, friendly staff (well, by Russian standards...) and professional pilots and they even outsourced their maintenance to a German company. Now, all that goodwill is gone. Again, even if the war ended tomorrow and they were allowed to buy new planes, it would take another 20 years to get back to where they were in early 2022. I actually feel sorry for the good people of Aeroflot and I suspect Mr. Putin is not flavour of the month in their HQ.
How will Russia in the future be able to afford any foreign infrastructure?? Most people will want to be repaid for past losses before doing any more business with Russia!!
What on earth makes you people believe that the Russian's are ever going to look back to the West?? People really do believe that the West is best and no country on earth can manage without us!! This foolish sense of self importance is going to cause the downfall of the Western World. Russia has the funds to buy the aircraft outright if they need to, they can form their own leasing and insurance companies, that is not rocket science and sure not something which only the Western world can do. Are people even aware that 4 of the top 10 largest banks in the world are Chinese? And people foolishly think they are unable to setup leasing and insurance?? This is why some 40 countries are lined up to join the BRICS+ group, they are getting ready for a new world order where the West will be far less important.
As a home owner who went through hurricane Katrina, I am all too familiar with insurance companies who do everything within their power to avoid paying fair claims.
Agreed. This is the logical choice. The FIRST in line for ANY siezed Russian money MUST be Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Ukraine NEVER entered into any 'risk fraught' DEAL to LEASE their Sovereign Country and citizens to Russia. This is a Buyer Beware situation. Air Lines and Leasers took a calculated risk.. and lost. They chose poorly.
The prosperity of several countries is based on the fact that they are a constitutional state. In Russia, where the law of the jungle applies, most areas outside the big cities are poor and f*cked up. Doing the same injustice to Russia that the Putin regime is doing to other countries is good for the feeling of revenge, but bad for the reputation of a constitutional state.
unfo there are rules in the west which have to be honored by western law makers - hence it is more than doubtful that any claim can be settled by frozen Russian assets .... sorry that the West has normal rules like this ... one reason why the EU as problems with these russian assets ..
Very good proposal. Cannot see why it should not be done. Same principle should apply to companies that lost their business interest in Russia due to them ceasing to operate in Russia as a result of being forced to do so due to sanctions.
Really enjoyed this! My daughter has been a general aircraft mechanic for decades. She works as an Inspector now as well as administration in a parts factory. Our dinner conversations are in depth talking about aircraft. She is spending her 2 wk vacay right now being an IA for helicopters fighting fire in WA state. We live in Oregon. ❤U
A defense based on redefining the term "act of war" is ludicrous. Where would that process end? That is a pretty hefty lift for an attorney. This loss is theft. That is a much simpler argument to make IMO. Even if the aircraft can be recovered later, the inability to account for maintenance makes the aircraft ineligible for flight certification and future insurance. They are scrap.
A problem is that it is 400 of them. Russia are not going to be able to afford new planes and Russia is HUGE. Basically either they continue to fly unreliable planes or they do not fly.
@@michaelpettersson4919 I realize that they would likely continue to be used within Russia if regular business were to ever return. But then Russia would set the terms to the owners (later) for this exclusive use. Because they have no value outside of the country, that would be pennies on the dollar. These planes are stolen now and will forever be lost IMO.
I mean ... it's not exactly surprising ... I think a airliner ist sort of inbetween a washing machine and a country ... Russia ist a country of thieves.
The Russians even stole animals out of the Kherson Zoo and the bones of Potemkin from a cathedral in Kherson. Not to mention countless washing machines. What else is new indeed!
Some corrections of information from this video: 1. Boeing and Airbus aren't the source of the sanctions, the western governments are. 2. The sanctions cover many airplane parts. The Chinese-made narrowbody passenger jet contains western parts subject to sanctions which can't be exported to Russia, which is why China can't sell those airplanes to Russia. A similar issue exists with the Russian built narrowbody, as it uses western parts, including the engine. Russia and China are both scrambling to develop internally built replacements. Otherwise, good information which was new to me.
I'm pretty sure that at least according to the international law, a war is a war irrespective of any "official declaration" of war. And I don't think most wars even have been "declared" as such.
Britain and France declared war on Germany when they invaded Poland. Did they go help Poland? No, they did nothing and waited for Germany to attack. It was called the Phony War or sitzkrieg.
@@linmal2242 Possibly not after their misuse by Russia but at least the Irish firms exposed to this theft will be wanting the value of those planes recovered?
@@Peter_Scheen tbh i dont agree, sure thats the excuse that the west is using but i feel there is enough evidence to claim repayment of damages done in ukraine to simply file a damage claim and the judge to decide that those assets can be used/seized to pay for the damages. russia caused the damage, so russia must pay for it, just like any other damage claim that courts handle regularly
@@Peter_Scheen - According to which law??? Which court or judge ruled on who is a friend of Putin when we stole all those private individual assets? Which court or judge rules that it's Ok to steal the 'interest earned on the frozen Russia state assets. There is no law in the West, not if they can steal assets and dress it up in the media as a righteous deed!!
Insurance has been a scam since day one. You pay money to people who spend it and then some to hire lawyers/etc to make sure they won't have to pay you out.
A government that doesn’t respect property rights, by expropriating those airplanes, won’t pay any heed to what some other court system rules about it.
Now a good question is when Russia loses its illegal war how are Russian Airlines going to buy any plains as I don't think any one will ever lease or land aircraft in Russia
Note to self: check that the aircraft maintenance schedule has been done properly in the coming years before booking international travel. Those Russian-held aircraft are about to fall to pieces!
In the chapter "Insurance Companies" you state that this situation hasn't happened before. In fact I think it has, if you go back to the 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Iraqi forces. There was a BA 747 trapped on the ground along with around 15 Kuwaiti aircraft at Kuwait's international airport. In this instance the Hull War insurers paid out a significant value for these aircraft hulls, so there is a precedent
I did last year from St Petersburg to Novosibirk, Siberia. The only dodgy flight was Embraer plane same as Prigozhin was on that blew out of the sky. That plane made strange noises on 2am flight to Irkutsk for connecting flight to Bangkok lol
@judithbradford9130 Sounds like you don't travel much. Many people have friends and family to visit in Russia, which doesn't mean that they support Putin and/or the war in Ukraine (a sovereign country). Aeroflot was a good airline, from a customer's viewpoint. I wouldn't have the faintest idea about how they ran their business. Turkish Airlines still flies to Russia.
Russias sezure of those airliners should be viewed as theft by the world Court and be held liable for all losses caused. And as such the lessors should be covered by the insurance companies.
They should put DRM on planes being sold to Russia in the future. They'll need to connect to the Boeing or Airbus server every time before taking off, otherwise the software won't allow it to take off :D
A couple of these aircraft have already made forced landings in fields in Russia, fortunately without any loss of life, and were abandoned their as it wasn't worth retrieving them.
He believes that Russia naturally owns Ukraine and that every Ukrainian is a Russian serf. It’s absolutely the only set of things he has no doubts about.
not that bad on the cognitive front unfortunately, his buddies like trump and the saudi prince, musk etc still doing their new world order thing... usa is now a kingdom, if you missed it.. this will pretty much change the world, especially if that orange horror moves into the white house again...
@@markiangooleyPutin has yet to see a place he doesn't think belongs to Russia. I would LOVE to see him try to take back Alaska. Please Vlad, just try.
I don't understand what is so complicated about this case. Russia stole those planes. Vehicles are stolen all of the time. Surely insurance companies are used to dealing with stolen vehicle claims.
Well, the planes were flying while Russia gathered army near Ukraine. So if you're a lessor and your plane is kind of old, it's in your best interest to send your plane to a risky country and hope they are stuck there and sue insurer for full cost of the plane
Ah, a classic nuanced dilemma of the legal arts. Allow me to extrapolate on this, it goes something like this: Client: "I/we bought an insurance in case something bad happens, and now said something bad has happened. We now urge you to hold up your agreed upon part of this contract, and provide the agreed upon financial payout, that we can recuperate our losses." Insurance company: "I don wanna."
Regarding the ad: *_You should NOT send in your DNA for testing. The test results are probably sold to insurance company, and you risk loosing your insurance, or the price can rise significantly!_*
Not if you're danish - healtcare is taken care of by the goverment - no need for insurrance for that - healthcare is equal no matter how rich or poor you are - and yess the ambulance is also free of charge
Parts like landing gear and engines are use and age limited. Without heavy maintenance with spares, aircraft are perishable even if they are not flown. Airframe manufactures carry insurance on every hull. Operators carry lots of insurance too. Russia have an indigenous aircraft industry, know known as United Aircraft Corporation and are in partnership with China on various planes. Soviet era commercial and freighters had a terrible safety record. China found developing a competitive aircraft to western standards of performance and safety is very difficult, even with support by western companies. Think COMAC. Interesting article! The insurance companies will keep the lawyers employed for years on this one.
Wouldn't an insurance company be able to sue the Russian state if they were forced to pay for seized planes? Russia does have assets in Europe and America....
That's what I was thinking. Whoever takes the hit here, leasing companies or insurance companies, surely they have a good case for recovering the money from sanctioned russian cash reserves. You can't just steal hundreds of airliners.
Thanks for the explanation of aircraft leasing. It is interesting Russia is complaining about having their financial assets frozen when they have seized assets of companies with a Russian presence.
@@stevenclarke5606 We’re not talking about the meat, though, in commercial air travel. Couple big maintenance-driven air disasters might get people’s attention
One further aspect is that passenger aircraft have to carefully log maintenance and replacement parts added to the aircraft. Now that Boeing and Airbus have withdrawn their personnel this work is being performed by unrecognised personnel. In addition the parts are either cannibalized from the fleet or purchased on the black market and do not have a documentation chain to an authorised supplier. As such those aircraft are effectively scrap they will never be allowed in international airspace again as they could never get insured or certificated to travel in international airspace. So even when the wars end the Russian aircraft will not be able to travel abroad and any new aircraft that does travel will be immediately impounded for debt by the leasing cos.
Yes the “Master Strategist’s” words. There’s been nothing Special about it, he started a war for money, control, man power, military hardware manufacturing, IT skills, raw materials and Ukraine’s warm water ports. It had nothing to do with the RuZZian speaking population in Ukraine he doesn’t care about them , that’s just one of Dictator VP’s many lies. He is the biggest liar on the planet so they made an emoji that looks like him 🤥
Maybe it's to recent for this video but the russian airline S7 has announced the grounding of its airbus A320neo fleet because they cannot maintain the pratt and Whitney PW1100g engines they use, that's 31 A320 and 8 A321neo, they are considering shipping them out of the country to possibly Iran who maintains engines from western aircraft, although apparently older engines than the neo's.
Domestic Russian and Chinese Airline production also relies heavily upon Western components and Avionics so it's going to be pretty difficult for Russia to pivot to Russian or Chinese aircraft in the short to medium term while sanctions remain in place.
Although the Chinese capabilities may change in time, Russia's capability to pivot to Russian aircraft materials is probably permanently doomed, because of the intense brain-drain happening at the moment. If there aren't any engineers left to design not just the parts but the entire *processes* to make them, then how will they be able to make their own...?
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There is still one major problem on the horizon: None of the airliners stiff flying in Russia will ever be allowed to operate external flights. After missing maintenance schedules, and with unofficial parts and servicing (if any) done, they can never be registered in another country. Boeing and Airbus now consider them as scrapped.
Really? how do you know this? where is that stated? if it was a Bus all that’s needed is proof that the vehicle has been tested and safe and then it’s back in business- even if the vehicle was cut and welded so it’s not hard for me to see why it would be any different in this case,
@@Hellofa6irdmaintenance records. If you can't demonstrate a continuous provenance, you're screwed.
@@Hellofa6ird And you want to believe Russian "proof?" 🤣
@@Hellofa6irdDidn't understand the video huh?
These planes no longer comply with servicing and insurance requirements.
They can't fly out of third world neo-fascist ruSSia.
They won't be granted airspace access unless it's for them to be seized at the recieving airport.
@@Hellofa6irdRussia stole them. No one in their right mind is going to accept ANY documentation offered by such a corrupt, immoral organization. Those planes are indeed SCRAP.
We shouldn’t forget that Russia shot down a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine and got away with it.
mh17
Cant try anyone if they hide out in russia. Russia is just a modern day Tortuga. A pirate haven where any scum and villainy can hide out from law and order.
but they didnt.
@@bogdanboros9551, Yes they did. Russia invaded Donbas in 2014.
Girkin got a life
Betcha Russian airlines will have a bit of trouble leasing new planes in the future , even after the war ends. Same old story with insurance companies: "You're in good hands , just like a good neighbor , we're on your side" ...until you have a claim and then boy howdy, they will do anything to delay ,deny, or reduce the payment and spend too much trying to save $$.
Naw, Dictator Putin will ask Dictator Trump for planes and Dictator Trump will oblige.
The dumb corporate CEOs who put Trump in power will discover that they made a mistake way too late.
Konstatin, from channel "Inside Russia " has even more dramatic point of view.
What other outcome would you expect ? They are hardly going to let Putin get away with that without major sanctions !!!
All western investments will be impossible for decades.
@@Oheng75Russia will be owned by China within the next decade, I’ll bet.
Correction required Joe. Planes and their spare parts need to be maintained in strict compliance with manufacturer specifications for airworthiness currency - not warranty. Parts can have their own maintenance schedule and documentation requirements. If it's not valid - e.g. maintenance wasn't performed by a currently approved engineer, the part cannot be used, and must be scrapped; or if it's the airplane; it can't be flown or onsold. They can't be legally flown through the airspace of most countries in that state. Warranty is a completely different legal / commerical concept.
Perhaps you should inform Boeing, they seem to be having some problems with the parts they are fitting in their aircraft.
@@delboyg01You can't have uncompliant bolts if you don't put bolts in it in the first place (insert Eddie Murphy meme).
It is also not covered by warranry if servicing is non compliant. Russia xhanged its' laws to allow airworthy certificates but no insurance is possible; hence the court action between the owner and the airline company...
@@robinkelly1770 ruSSian "airworthy" certificates are worthless in most other countries.
@@delboyg01 Boeing has a separate set of issues, but it remains a legitimate company. Russia is a criminal state.
Russian Airline Pilots, buying their own parachutes.
Hit the ground softer with western ones. Yet, N Korean parachutes get you there faster. Way, fast.
Second hand from red army. Slight bullet holes may occur.
@@brianharding5618 😂
Temu has backpacks for sale labeled as parachutes......lol
As long as the plane is flying, the doors are blocked
The planes don't even have to fail. Eventually they'll run out of suicidal pilots. It will reach a point where any sensible pilot will refuse the risk.
They're using already used part for replacements. This will not have a happy ending.
Just a matter of time, there has already been an accident of one aircraft.
Excellent report, Joe. Great explanations on leasing. Cannibalized aircraft are essentially worthless and a flying liability. For all intents and purposes, Aeroflot and the other airlines are no longer international carriers. Countries with airlines servicing Russian destinations or accepting flights from Russia may face secondary sanctions, including the termination of scheduled flights in and out of western airports. Certain eastern Mediterranean and Middle East countries come to mind along with the PRC. This could include commercial airlines and private charter carriers. Due to the growing liability, leasing companies may need to pay higher rates to insurance companies for aircraft entering Russian airspace.
Have you not yet understood how the sanctions regime has failed? And you want to pile on secondary sanctions to piss off other countries? The BRICS countries have a part of their core mandate, not to apply sanctions on other members. So China / India / UAE etc, will never sanction Russia, they will instead apply sanctions on the West in retaliation. Thereby starting a global trade war which the West cannot win.
When you say 'Cannibalized aircraft', do you mean the ones parts are pulled from or the ones that recieve parts from other aircraft? It's a big difference. The later is quite common even in the west, as long as the part was oprational before installation. Some smaller airlines even buy parts planes like one buys a parts car.
@@12pentaborane I'm saying: 'the ones that receive parts from other aircraft' that have not been re-tested or re-certified to international standards. The donor aircraft become a parts 'bone yard'.
@@gregash7683 I'm putting a lot of faith in the maintenance practices of Russian aviation, but I'm sure they have some sort of tracking of which parts came from where along with documents on what is and isn't a good part. If a slat needs to swapped I'm sure the Russian maintenance crew has a paper copy of the procedures and tolerances to remove, find, certify, and install one. If those planes are in Russia the maintenance equipment for them is probably also there, if the airlines want to keep what they have safe and up to code.
@@12pentaborane If Russian preventive maintenance is like the evidence of PM elsewhere in the country - especially in the military, I would buy a horse for travel
Back in the days of glasnost and perestroika, I traveled with Intourist across the former Soviet Union…One memorable internal flight on a Russian built plane, started with the pilots walking through to the cockpit carrying a short length of copper wire and a screwdriver. While during take off, having a number of the light cowlings falling from the ceiling on to passengers and the floor…apart from that, it was an uneventful flight.
The Soviet airline industry missed out on an opportunity. They could have offered this flight experience to Westerners looking for adventure in the former Soviet Union.
In the late 70'ies flying in Siberia (don't ask) I once was seated in some crazy loud Tupolev or Ilushin while about 10 Russians were standing in the gangway the whole flight, including takeoff and landing. Most bizarre thing I have ever experienced flying commercially. Second place goes to a European charter airline where a stewardess asked me if I would be willing to take someone else's child on my lap for the flight.
You were lucky they weren't carrying a Boeing MCAS software disk to be loaded!
There's a Yakov Smirnoff joke in there somewhere
@@andrewallen9993 I was lucky Yevgeny Prigozhin wasn’t flying with me…
It's not just a matter of parts wearing out. Most parts are 'lifed' and have to be removed before that life expires so any parts they are cannibilising from other aircraft will also have part or all of their life expired. It's all illegal, those aircraft would be instantly grounded the minute they leave russian airspace!
Irianians and China will let them fly over there and other Russia aligned states. But yes the Airspace for those Airplanes is closed. Russia's only Option is to get it's own Aircraft Passenger Aircraft Production running, they have a Chance as long as corruption doesn't impede it to much, they might even get a good Market in China or Iran for their Yakovlev MC-21 as it is International compliant but missed it's certification for Easa and FAA by 2-4 Month as both Organisations stopped Certifications for Russian Airplanes in March 2022. Russia has a chance but most likely throw it away as it has now a workers shortage and everything goes into the war, when not founds go into privat pockets instead of important projects. I give Russia a 5% Chance that they got the Yakovlev MC-21 Production line running in 2025 and at full capacity in 2026.
only for first world or nato as we call it. which was going to happen anyway. doubt china/africa or south america cares.
After my father was aged out of flying passenger aircraft, he went on to fly for these leasing companies, effectively repossessing planes all over the world. I wonder what he thinks of this. I'll have to ask him and see if he still remembers. Dementia is a cruel bastard.
If Russia has seized these planes, then could the lease companies not put claims against frozen Russian assets in the West? Same for the insurance companies? (Though I’d prefer these assets go to rebuild Ukraine.)
I am sure some clever lawyer has thought about it. There are probably legal cases being prepared for that at this moment.
Sadly there is a lot of people queueing for those assets already. quik mafs say 400 planes at 200M each is 80B already. Add ukraine rebuilding and continuous military aid until this ends and there isn't a whole lot left even if we take every single cent of it (as we should, to be clear)
Russian economy is/was roughly the size of Italy before this started, a middle of the road european country. They don't have magical unlimited piles of gold as much as they would like to believe so and most of it in the oligarchs hands anyway.
@CalgarGTX. YES, Sad but true. But yea, Ukraine 🇺🇦 First.
So western companies should be forced to fund ukraine rebuilding? How very russian of you.
@@lucdrouin4653 If someone steals your stuff, you go to a court, right? No rocket science.
Hard to see another foreign airline, insurer, or lessor in the airline industry ever doing business in russia again.
In the business world”never” just means “until” . . . 💰
@arlenbell4376 Yes, which in this case means pretty much never as nobody is going to take a risk when they have proven they will screw around and lose them money.
Great; Chinese aircraft. We've seen the Tofu apartment blocks, we've seen the meccano (no insult to Meccano, they were designed as toys) bridges, we've seen the airborn EV's, witnessed the fake everything, now it appears we're going so see unseaworthy aircraft 🙈. China, where even the China can't hold hot water...
@@WinnipegOne177 You mean like Turkish Airlines, Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, Air Serbia, Beijing Capital, China Eastern, Air China, Xiamen Air, Air Arabia, El Al, Flydubai and many others that are doing business right now?
@@NJ-wb1cz he is bot.
The standard operating procedure for insurance companies:
1. Offer coverage
2. Collect premiums
3. Don't pay out claims
This is how they all work. It's just Ferengi rule of acquisition #1: Once you have their money, never give it back.
What is keeping them from mutually insuring each other like they do in the shipping industry?
@@punzer They all do; it is called Reinsurance and the biggest owner of the reinsurer giant is Warren Buffet !
He's not silly ! Was in the industry a long time ago ! So was I.
@@linmal2242 Mutual insurance is not the same as reinsurance.
🖖
That works on us plebes. People that have lawyers get special consideration
That's equal to relying on outdated software at 35000 ft.
None of the 450 aircrafts that was stolen, have any value outside Russia. The moment one of these crafts lands in a wastern airport, it will be grounded, due to lack of transperancy in the maintenance and spares. Upgrading them is close to impossible and at least extremely expensive. These crafts are being cannibalised at increasing speed. Does anyone have the competence to guess when this will be a dead end ?
I came here to write exactly this! All these airframes are now scrap metal, $0.25 per kilogram. Too bad that aircraft are built to be relatively lightweight.
They were written off the moment war started.
Iran does it with their F-14 fighters. Send by USA when Iran was still a friendly Nation. While they don't fly as much as airliners they still undergo wear and tear. Seems they still have some flying.
Lesson learned, NEVER do any kind of business with Russia EVER !!! And there ruble is ruble. Thanks Joe !
Hmm, and how will Russia pay reparations if they loss outright post war?
The Ruble is rubble. I TOTALLY AGREE 👍🏾
Lesson: Don't fly with Russia.
dont do anything! with ruSSia!
Lesson: Don't lend any money to Russia. Note: This lesson will be applied over the next 100 years. Good work Russia!
@@mikaham681 dont trade with them.
Dont relie on them.
Dont ever trust them.
This will hold, for 100 Years.
@@mikaham681 Don’t even acknowledge RuZZia!
Boeing planes Garbage
Excellent summary! The only relevant Chinese large aircraft manufacturer is COMAC and they have zero capacity to supply planes to Russia; furthermore, COMAC relies almost entirely on western parts, tech, avionics, etc. to assemble their planes, and they are currently barred by their western suppliers from re-selling onward to Russia.
Conclusion: Never, EVER, do business with Russia.
That's why trump likes doing business with Putin.
100%
There are two more aspects on this: 1. I don't think that any of the financing/leasing companies (and the manufacturers) will touch anything Russian for a very long time. So, even if the war is over tomorrow, Russian will not be able to buy new planes. 2. Aeroflot worked very professionally over the last 25 years or so to become a respected and safe airline with on-time flights. They sported new aircraft, friendly staff (well, by Russian standards...) and professional pilots and they even outsourced their maintenance to a German company. Now, all that goodwill is gone. Again, even if the war ended tomorrow and they were allowed to buy new planes, it would take another 20 years to get back to where they were in early 2022. I actually feel sorry for the good people of Aeroflot and I suspect Mr. Putin is not flavour of the month in their HQ.
How will Russia in the future be able to afford any foreign infrastructure?? Most people will want to be repaid for past losses before doing any more business with Russia!!
Dictator VP has signed RuZZia’s death warrant. What a Master Strategist 🤥
@@kaythegardener They lost all trustworthyness by now. There's no way they can ever join the world community again, North-Korea 2.0
What on earth makes you people believe that the Russian's are ever going to look back to the West?? People really do believe that the West is best and no country on earth can manage without us!! This foolish sense of self importance is going to cause the downfall of the Western World. Russia has the funds to buy the aircraft outright if they need to, they can form their own leasing and insurance companies, that is not rocket science and sure not something which only the Western world can do.
Are people even aware that 4 of the top 10 largest banks in the world are Chinese? And people foolishly think they are unable to setup leasing and insurance?? This is why some 40 countries are lined up to join the BRICS+ group, they are getting ready for a new world order where the West will be far less important.
Well if they have money they can buy, but if you meant lease, then I would agree with you.
As a home owner who went through hurricane Katrina, I am all too familiar with insurance companies who do everything within their power to avoid paying fair claims.
ditto
As a change of ownership took place by Russia, a good case could be made to use frozen Russian funds to cover the cost.
Agreed. This is the logical choice. The FIRST in line for ANY siezed Russian money MUST be Ukraine. 🇺🇦 Ukraine NEVER entered into any 'risk fraught' DEAL to LEASE their Sovereign Country and citizens to Russia.
This is a Buyer Beware situation. Air Lines and Leasers took a calculated risk.. and lost. They chose poorly.
The prosperity of several countries is based on the fact that they are a constitutional state. In Russia, where the law of the jungle applies, most areas outside the big cities are poor and f*cked up. Doing the same injustice to Russia that the Putin regime is doing to other countries is good for the feeling of revenge, but bad for the reputation of a constitutional state.
unfo there are rules in the west which have to be honored by western law makers - hence it is more than doubtful that any claim can be settled by frozen Russian assets ....
sorry that the West has normal rules like this ... one reason why the EU as problems with these russian assets ..
Very good proposal. Cannot see why it should not be done. Same principle should apply to companies that lost their business interest in Russia due to them ceasing to operate in Russia as a result of being forced to do so due to sanctions.
Putin branched out into the piracy business.
Really enjoyed this! My daughter has been a general aircraft mechanic for decades. She works as an Inspector now as well as administration in a parts factory. Our dinner conversations are in depth talking about aircraft. She is spending her 2 wk vacay right now being an IA for helicopters fighting fire in WA state. We live in Oregon. ❤U
Go girl!
A defense based on redefining the term "act of war" is ludicrous. Where would that process end? That is a pretty hefty lift for an attorney.
This loss is theft. That is a much simpler argument to make IMO. Even if the aircraft can be recovered later, the inability to account for maintenance makes the aircraft ineligible for flight certification and future insurance. They are scrap.
A problem is that it is 400 of them. Russia are not going to be able to afford new planes and Russia is HUGE. Basically either they continue to fly unreliable planes or they do not fly.
@@michaelpettersson4919 I realize that they would likely continue to be used within Russia if regular business were to ever return. But then Russia would set the terms to the owners (later) for this exclusive use. Because they have no value outside of the country, that would be pennies on the dollar.
These planes are stolen now and will forever be lost IMO.
Stealing airliners? What else is new.
I mean ... it's not exactly surprising ... I think a airliner ist sort of inbetween a washing machine and a country ... Russia ist a country of thieves.
About as new as jacking USD reserves
@@scroopynooperz9051 nobody jacking USD RESERVES
@@tlhamp0 lol are we not paying attention? Or have they just misplaced $300 billion of Russian foreign currency and gold reserves? 😂
The Russians even stole animals out of the Kherson Zoo and the bones of Potemkin from a cathedral in Kherson. Not to mention countless washing machines. What else is new indeed!
Insurers reneging on insurance claims? No surprise at all. Interesting topic and content. Thank you Joe.🌂🙏⛔
Joe...thanks...your blogs are top notch...always learn more than I knew before...Thank you!
Some corrections of information from this video:
1. Boeing and Airbus aren't the source of the sanctions, the western governments are.
2. The sanctions cover many airplane parts. The Chinese-made narrowbody passenger jet contains western parts subject to sanctions which can't be exported to Russia, which is why China can't sell those airplanes to Russia. A similar issue exists with the Russian built narrowbody, as it uses western parts, including the engine. Russia and China are both scrambling to develop internally built replacements.
Otherwise, good information which was new to me.
I am an International Business student and i always watch yur videos to gain more knoeledge in Global Business. Thank you
In a kleptocracy, anything is fair game! Just make sure they can't fight back much.
I'm pretty sure that at least according to the international law, a war is a war irrespective of any "official declaration" of war. And I don't think most wars even have been "declared" as such.
Britain and France declared war on Germany when they invaded Poland. Did they go help Poland? No, they did nothing and waited for Germany to attack. It was called the Phony War or sitzkrieg.
Greetings from the Emerald Isle 🇮🇪🇬🇧 🧬
You'll be wanting your planes back, then.
@@leecooper8589 Cash only, thank you!
@@leecooper8589 Used planes ?
@@linmal2242 Possibly not after their misuse by Russia but at least the Irish firms exposed to this theft will be wanting the value of those planes recovered?
If Russia can seize private assets then why can't foreign countries seize Russian Assets and give that to Ukraine?
Russia does not seize anything -- they steal everything. There's somewhat of a difference.
Because we work according to law.
@@Peter_Scheen tbh i dont agree, sure thats the excuse that the west is using but i feel there is enough evidence to claim repayment of damages done in ukraine to simply file a damage claim and the judge to decide that those assets can be used/seized to pay for the damages. russia caused the damage, so russia must pay for it, just like any other damage claim that courts handle regularly
@@Peter_Scheen - According to which law???
Which court or judge ruled on who is a friend of Putin when we stole all those private individual assets?
Which court or judge rules that it's Ok to steal the 'interest earned on the frozen Russia state assets.
There is no law in the West, not if they can steal assets and dress it up in the media as a righteous deed!!
Has already happened.
Insurance has been a scam since day one. You pay money to people who spend it and then some to hire lawyers/etc to make sure they won't have to pay you out.
A government that doesn’t respect property rights, by expropriating those airplanes, won’t pay any heed to what some other court system rules about it.
Putler: "Everything is going according to plan!"
Joe, you sure are doing something right other youtubes are using you as a reference which is how i heard about you. keep up the fabulous work.
Now a good question is when Russia loses its illegal war how are Russian Airlines going to buy any plains as I don't think any one will ever lease or land aircraft in Russia
Payment in gold
An additional cost is long haul airlines now have to fly around Russia rather than over it.
This is why Finnair for example uses Airbus A350-900. Finnair can fly around the Ruzzia.
The extra cost is off-set against the savings from the exorbitant airspace fees that Russia charges
Not a huge diversion and many countries still can fly over Russia.
@@verttikoo2052always depending on the route
@@hedleythornelike what? China? North Korea? Iran?
Note to self: check that the aircraft maintenance schedule has been done properly in the coming years before booking international travel.
Those Russian-held aircraft are about to fall to pieces!
In the chapter "Insurance Companies" you state that this situation hasn't happened before. In fact I think it has, if you go back to the 1990 invasion of Kuwait by Iraqi forces. There was a BA 747 trapped on the ground along with around 15 Kuwaiti aircraft at Kuwait's international airport. In this instance the Hull War insurers paid out a significant value for these aircraft hulls, so there is a precedent
Nobody will ever be stupid enough in the future to lease (or insure) planes to be used by russian airlines.
Do not count on it. Greed is a huge motivator! Like Caterpillar in Russia…not in Vietnam during war…wink, wink…!
it astonishes me ANYBODY would fly on a Russian airline.
I did last year from St Petersburg to Novosibirk, Siberia. The only dodgy flight was Embraer plane same as Prigozhin was on that blew out of the sky. That plane made strange noises on 2am flight to Irkutsk for connecting flight to Bangkok lol
Russian Roulette
@judithbradford9130 Sounds like you don't travel much. Many people have friends and family to visit in Russia, which doesn't mean that they support Putin and/or the war in Ukraine (a sovereign country). Aeroflot was a good airline, from a customer's viewpoint. I wouldn't have the faintest idea about how they ran their business. Turkish Airlines still flies to Russia.
@@John-ih2bx Wanting to visit family doesn't make Russian stolen aircraft any less death traps
Russias sezure of those airliners should be viewed as theft by the world Court and be held liable for all losses caused. And as such the lessors should be covered by the insurance companies.
Joe you forgot to cross reference the increased number of plane crashes in Russia since the start of the war
They should put DRM on planes being sold to Russia in the future. They'll need to connect to the Boeing or Airbus server every time before taking off, otherwise the software won't allow it to take off :D
Look Dear, there's a washing machine on the wing of our plane
A couple of these aircraft have already made forced landings in fields in Russia, fortunately without any loss of life, and were abandoned their as it wasn't worth retrieving them.
Thanks for doing this one. I had mentioned it as a topic a few months back.
Yeah, Putin, how'd that whole imperialistic conquest thing work out for you?
I just talked to him: he still thinks he is an absolute genius
He believes that Russia naturally owns Ukraine and that every Ukrainian is a Russian serf. It’s absolutely the only set of things he has no doubts about.
not that bad on the cognitive front unfortunately, his buddies like trump and the saudi prince, musk etc still doing their new world order thing... usa is now a kingdom, if you missed it.. this will pretty much change the world, especially if that orange horror moves into the white house again...
@@markiangooleyPutin has yet to see a place he doesn't think belongs to Russia.
I would LOVE to see him try to take back Alaska. Please Vlad, just try.
@@jefferyshute6641that's comrade Adolf Pootin to you.
I don't understand what is so complicated about this case. Russia stole those planes. Vehicles are stolen all of the time. Surely insurance companies are used to dealing with stolen vehicle claims.
Well, the planes were flying while Russia gathered army near Ukraine. So if you're a lessor and your plane is kind of old, it's in your best interest to send your plane to a risky country and hope they are stuck there and sue insurer for full cost of the plane
Ah, a classic nuanced dilemma of the legal arts. Allow me to extrapolate on this, it goes something like this:
Client: "I/we bought an insurance in case something bad happens, and now said something bad has happened. We now urge you to hold up your agreed upon part of this contract, and provide the agreed upon financial payout, that we can recuperate our losses."
Insurance company: "I don wanna."
Regarding the ad:
*_You should NOT send in your DNA for testing. The test results are probably sold to insurance company, and you risk loosing your insurance, or the price can rise significantly!_*
Not if you're danish - healtcare is taken care of by the goverment - no need for insurrance for that - healthcare is equal no matter how rich or poor you are - and yess the ambulance is also free of charge
@@larsandersen6170 It could affect new life insurance policies.
That would be an American problem, if true.
wanna buy a tin foil hat ???
@@Casey-JonesYou think this is NOT true? 😅 Maybe re-consider.
Parts like landing gear and engines are use and age limited. Without heavy maintenance with spares, aircraft are perishable even if they are not flown.
Airframe manufactures carry insurance on every hull. Operators carry lots of insurance too.
Russia have an indigenous aircraft industry, know known as United Aircraft Corporation and are in partnership with China on various planes. Soviet era commercial and freighters had a terrible safety record. China found developing a competitive aircraft to western standards of performance and safety is very difficult, even with support by western companies. Think COMAC.
Interesting article! The insurance companies will keep the lawyers employed for years on this one.
Where do they source aircraft tyres which are probably the essential consumable with highest turnover ?
Probably A Cheap Chinese Copy.
You wouldn’t want these tyres on your car , let alone hoping that they will stay intact on a landing
Great information. Thank you.
Your statue looks like it's holding up your UA-cam award with its feet 😅
Excellent update, thank you for sharing
Wouldn't an insurance company be able to sue the Russian state if they were forced to pay for seized planes? Russia does have assets in Europe and America....
That's what I was thinking. Whoever takes the hit here, leasing companies or insurance companies, surely they have a good case for recovering the money from sanctioned russian cash reserves. You can't just steal hundreds of airliners.
But it will have to be Russian state assets. Not Russian private assets
How do you enforce the suit
@@markwriter2698 I guess a court in Europe or the US could seize funds frozen there?
U do good credible journalism , thanks .
Russia doesn't want to play by the rules of the game. Well fine. Go play in your own yard. 😂
Thanks
"From Russia's point of view, this situation is not ideal". What a diplomatic way of saying that they are COMPLETELY fucked long-term.
Great update Joe 😊
The Swiss...as usual expecting to profit from war.
Thanks Joe, very interesting , must have taken a bit of research for this one.
Thanks for the explanation of aircraft leasing. It is interesting Russia is complaining about having their financial assets frozen when they have seized assets of companies with a Russian presence.
Great job, Joe Blogs. I learned something important today.
The engines are another significant concern. Some failure modes progress rapidly & can result in catastrophic mishaps.
Mate, it's Russians. They are expendable.
This situation has never worried about Safety, Russia has plenty of canon fodder
@@stevenclarke5606 We’re not talking about the meat, though, in commercial air travel. Couple big maintenance-driven air disasters might get people’s attention
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦❤️
Glory to All of the Heroes of Ukraine … & Thanks Joe for informing us about the Stolen Aircraft situation… 💙💛💙
One further aspect is that passenger aircraft have to carefully log maintenance and replacement parts added to the aircraft. Now that Boeing and Airbus have withdrawn their personnel this work is being performed by unrecognised personnel. In addition the parts are either cannibalized from the fleet or purchased on the black market and do not have a documentation chain to an authorised supplier. As such those aircraft are effectively scrap they will never be allowed in international airspace again as they could never get insured or certificated to travel in international airspace. So even when the wars end the Russian aircraft will not be able to travel abroad and any new aircraft that does travel will be immediately impounded for debt by the leasing cos.
Don’t forget. Iran is doing maintenance on these planes
@@16rumpole And Iran has it's own problems.
Hi Joe. I forgot to thank you for your good work in my earlier comments. Thank you, you are appreciated
It is not a war, it's just a special operation. 😏
If we agree, why don't we add Ukraine to NATO-membership, no war no opposition to NATO
Yes the “Master Strategist’s” words. There’s been nothing Special about it, he started a war for money, control, man power, military hardware manufacturing, IT skills, raw materials and Ukraine’s warm water ports. It had nothing to do with the RuZZian speaking population in Ukraine he doesn’t care about them , that’s just one of Dictator VP’s many lies. He is the biggest liar on the planet so they made an emoji that looks like him 🤥
Yeah, and Russian ships don't get sunk. They get promoted to submarines 😂
Really amazing legal summary
Case in point, don't keep your ship in a crazy neighbor's pool(this includes China, Germany)
Probably your best video yet Joe
You're the bomb, Joe!
super well researched episode, thank you Joe !
Thanks
Great information. Thank you
Maybe it's to recent for this video but the russian airline S7 has announced the grounding of its airbus A320neo fleet because they cannot maintain the pratt and Whitney PW1100g engines they use, that's 31 A320 and 8 A321neo, they are considering shipping them out of the country to possibly Iran who maintains engines from western aircraft, although apparently older engines than the neo's.
Outstanding!
Thank you, Joe!
Domestic Russian and Chinese Airline production also relies heavily upon Western components and Avionics so it's going to be pretty difficult for Russia to pivot to Russian or Chinese aircraft in the short to medium term while sanctions remain in place.
Although the Chinese capabilities may change in time, Russia's capability to pivot to Russian aircraft materials is probably permanently doomed, because of the intense brain-drain happening at the moment. If there aren't any engineers left to design not just the parts but the entire *processes* to make them, then how will they be able to make their own...?
Greetings from Oregon USA. Great video thanks for all you do.
I wonder how long before we hear of the first russian air accident due to compromised safety
Been a few already
@@michaeldunham3385place a link please.
You probably don’t not hear about it, unless some partisans happens to film it.
@@elisabethnygaard8525 ah ok - thanks
Turkey is doing the maintenance.
This was extremely interesting and an important document to the airline industry that affects all of us!! Thanks Joe!!
Putin’s unforeseen consequences 🤣😂
We both love watching your channel - keep it going and we are greatly cheered by your last 'cheer you up clip'! Peter and Alison
love u
Thanks for posting this video
Very interesting!
Your a great analyst. I like your work here.
When the war is over and things have settled down a bit, I wonder if leasing companies will even lend planes to Russia?
Joe. An absolutely fascinating video. Thank you.
Special Insurance Operation
Great video thank you for all the information provided by your good self keep smiling and be happy
Fly Russian and avoid the draft. They won't send you to war in a bodybag!
Thanks Joe. It's a big issue travelling a unsafe public transport at Top dollar
Morning Joe.