“Every pilot has two bags, an experience bag and a luck bag. When he first starts out his experience bag is empty and his luck bag is full. Every time the pilot survives doing something stupid or dangerous, he takes a little out of the luck bag and puts it in the experience bag. The trick is to fill the experience bag before the luck bag runs out.” ― Kerry McCauley, FERRY PILOT: Nine Lives Over the North Atlantic ― Highly recommended read! Happy New Year from Finland! 👍😎
Someone once said: Changing your mind is not a bad thing. It is called Learning. The only way, we can improve and evolve, is to learn. To be openminded enough to consider other opinions too and always give our own knowledge at least a chance of a doubt.
So true. I used to interview graduates for their first job and one of my favourite questions was “how much about this subject do you know”…one kid replied 90 percent. I was astonished
Excellent video, Magnar. In my profession, petroleum geology, which I have practiced for over 45 years, the Dunning-Kruger effect occurs a lot and the result can often be disastrous.
The Dunning-Kreuger effect works two ways; not only in overestimating one's own competence but also in underestimating the competence of those around you.
Magnar - YOU NAILED IT! I've been unsuccessfully trying to get people to look beyond their "Ignorant Arrogance" many times without much success. I've tried to use the Dunning-Kruger Effect in many situations but have never been able to get my point across properly. Thank you SO MUCH for assembling & presenting this so perfectly. This video is going to be my MAIN GO-TO from here on out.
Thanks for the lesson instructor Magner🙂 I have often made mistakes when I get cocky - falling for the Dunning-Krueger effect. Luckily, the aircraft I fly do not cause fatality…
I also watch Captain Joe here on UA-cam and he always says 'A good pilot is always learning'. I really like it when he says that. I also believe that it doesn't just apply to pilots, but everyone should always be learning. No human being can ever know everything - even if we lived for a million years because we are just too small in comparison to knowledge.
This is the same effect with ANY occupation or knowledge, i.e. riding motorcycles. I try to remain in the mindset that I do NOT know everything, but that realization makes me not only wise but constantly learning.
"Stick and rudder" by Wolfgang Langewiesche, this was the book that, after gaining my PPL, pushed me real fast into realizing that I knew little to nothing about how to fly an airplane properly.
Hi Magnar, very true statements! The instructor story touched me and you are right, because I’m earning my money as an instructor as simple as it is. My statement to every pilot is: try to enhance your personal flight envelope=learn to widen your limitations.
With over 40 years of flying experience I realized early on in my career that I had been incredibly lucky, even so far as to survive a plane crash in the Rocky Mountains. Later on it might have appeared that I was overly cautious, but the truth is that I had learned my lessons and knew that caution should never be 'thrown to the wind'. It has served me well. I always recall the old adage..... There are old pilots and their are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots. If you are learning to fly, read lots of books on aviation accidents, learns as much as you can about weather and strike up conversations with the older pilots. You will learn a lot if you take their wisdom to heart.
I'm glad to hear you survived the accident. So far, I have not had any accidents, and I intend to keep it that way. As a consequence, I'm becoming more and more cautious as my retiring age is getting closer. Regarding "there are old pilots and their are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots," there are a few exemptions. Recently, I met Blaine Bjarnarson, an experienced Twin Otter pilot with experience from Canada and Maldives. He has written a book about his life. It's named "Old Pilot Bold Pilot." Hereby recommeneded.
Very interesting video and loads of incredible quotes Magnar. I've got 150hrs & fall into the "old not bold" camp. My peers tell me I'm a good pilot but that has never stopped me from making mistakes and trying to learn from them. Sometimes it works... but I can see your point that I will be susceptible to the D-K effect at some time in my flying career. Thanks for highlighting this very important subject!
Couldn't agree more with you! Mine observation is that people not being educated experts, in the fields that are fairly complicated lacking basic toolset to understood the thing they trying to be armchair experts. Also the ability to find short answers for complicated subjects made thing worst. As you pointed there is a reason why pilots learning aerodynamics, doctors are studying chemistry, and engineers physics. Easy to be terribly wrong when skipping those initial steps 🤪
Magnar i can't be more agreeing with you. It is a life-time process and in the end, you realise you know so little and so much has still to be discovered. As a matter of fact when started hanggliding ot gave a whole new idea of flying and a different perspective. If you have the opportunity you should try. As always thank you for your input. 🙏
I'm 58 and I can say quite safely that 95% of what I thought I knew and understood at 21 was either partially or completely wrong. Getting into a technical field and having to learn, troubleshoot and fix complex machines was humbling to say the least, but a great gift. I always tell young people starting out (if they'll listen) that one of the most important skills to have is to realize what you DON'T know and never feel ashamed to admit that. Go find the answer.
The self awareness of one's own relative ignorance often develops with increasing knowledge and experience. I'm an airline pilot and certainly not a CFD engineer or anything like that. I realized at some point that I didn't really understood lift. I had learnt the basics of it but it didn't entirely make sense to me. I then did some reading and watched some of the videos you watched yourself (Babinski, Fidkowski) and others (McLean, Anderson...). They all seem to have a different point of view on the issue... I might be wrong here but I see very marked difference in their respective explanations. I came to the conclusion that it's a quite complex subject matter and that while the phenomenon is obviously well modelized and calculated, its root cause(s) is (are) still disputed. If asked, I would have to answer that I don't know what makes an airfoil fly. I have a reasonable understanding of the factors involved but eventually, I don't know WHY.
Keep up the good work cpt. In the middle of my atpls. It’s crazy the amount of students who just want to get through the subjects to “just pass” so they can move on. Knowledge is power especially when things go wrong up there. I can’t get enough of some subjects 🤣
Your fellow students will get the shock of their life when they start on their first type rating 🤣 Edit: They should also think about their future job interviews. Many chief pilots like to ask about aviation related topics like regulations, aircraft performance, etc.
Haha, “pass the top gun stage” … love it. I’m just few hours pass the 200 mark. I agree, after certain amount of hours (or maybe just my age too) you learn to sit out the bad weather and other bad behaviours.
I think the mistake that people make is thinking that the Bernoulli effect relies on the cross section alone, not the angle of attack . And there are loads of video's explaining that, the cross section of the wing is not the main driver of lift, which is true, and that shape uses said effect. And is then mentally shortend by either the maker of the video he got his info from, or themselves to the Bernoulli effect has a minority part in making lift. What happens then when someone says, the Bernoulli effect, they think, I know that, thats not important, its the angle of attack!. Even if this is also simplified, have not looked it up, but I am pretty sure the cross section becomes a major factor of lift with full flaps, or at least really significant.
Some guys are addicted to fly. And will lie to their friends and family about "I know how to fly with strong winds" Or "I know how to fly in this bad weather, LETS GO ! Thousands of passengers have been killed by those guys. You have to be able to spot a liar. Liars are overconfident a lot.
Nicholas in his book discusses the properties of the human and animal brainm. For my research presentation, I wold like to cite the scientific origin of this model. I can't find it in Nicholas' book, so I assume I have seen it in one of your numerous videos. Did you mention this reference (the researcher), or did I see it elsewhere?
Because our life is so short relatively speaking and we learn all the time. Would you say its better to learn a little about everything than concentrate on one subject?
I think you are suffering from the Dunning Kruger effect, too. You missed the other half of the effect, like most people that think they understand it. You explained the insult side of the meaning, the meaning one would use when belittling beginners. There is another side of it, that causes experts to overestimate the competence of their peers. When a true expert sees shoddy work, they are very likely to attribute it to laziness, malice, carelessness, recklessness, or something negative, because in their mind, that person is just as capable as they are, so it "must have been" that negative thing. I suffer from it, too. I get all mad about poorly made programming libraries and frameworks. I can't resist thinking they didn't care. Even when I consciously remind myself it is the Dunning Kruger effect.
“Every pilot has two bags, an experience bag and a luck bag. When he first starts out his experience bag is empty and his luck bag is full. Every time the pilot survives doing something stupid or dangerous, he takes a little out of the luck bag and puts it in the experience bag. The trick is to fill the experience bag before the luck bag runs out.” ― Kerry McCauley, FERRY PILOT: Nine Lives Over the North Atlantic ― Highly recommended read! Happy New Year from Finland! 👍😎
Someone once said: Changing your mind is not a bad thing. It is called Learning.
The only way, we can improve and evolve, is to learn. To be openminded enough to consider other opinions too and always give our own knowledge at least a chance of a doubt.
So true. I used to interview graduates for their first job and one of my favourite questions was “how much about this subject do you know”…one kid replied 90 percent. I was astonished
Excellent video, Magnar. In my profession, petroleum geology, which I have practiced for over 45 years, the Dunning-Kruger effect occurs a lot and the result can often be disastrous.
The Dunning-Kreuger effect works two ways; not only in overestimating one's own competence but also in underestimating the competence of those around you.
Magnar - YOU NAILED IT! I've been unsuccessfully trying to get people to look beyond their "Ignorant Arrogance" many times without much success. I've tried to use the Dunning-Kruger Effect in many situations but have never been able to get my point across properly. Thank you SO MUCH for assembling & presenting this so perfectly. This video is going to be my MAIN GO-TO from here on out.
Thanks for the lesson instructor Magner🙂 I have often made mistakes when I get cocky - falling for the Dunning-Krueger effect. Luckily, the aircraft I fly do not cause fatality…
I also watch Captain Joe here on UA-cam and he always says 'A good pilot is always learning'. I really like it when he says that. I also believe that it doesn't just apply to pilots, but everyone should always be learning. No human being can ever know everything - even if we lived for a million years because we are just too small in comparison to knowledge.
Well said! I always keep the Dunning Kruger effect in mind, especially when learning something new. You can never know how much you DON’T know!
This is top quality instruction, guidance and wisdom. Well done.
This is the same effect with ANY occupation or knowledge, i.e. riding motorcycles. I try to remain in the mindset that I do NOT know everything, but that realization makes me not only wise but constantly learning.
Definitely motorcycles.
"Stick and rudder" by Wolfgang Langewiesche, this was the book that, after gaining my PPL, pushed me real fast into realizing that I knew little to nothing about how to fly an airplane properly.
Hi Magnar, very true statements! The instructor story touched me and you are right, because I’m earning my money as an instructor as simple as it is. My statement to every pilot is: try to enhance your personal flight envelope=learn to widen your limitations.
With over 40 years of flying experience I realized early on in my career that I had been incredibly lucky, even so far as to survive a plane crash in the Rocky Mountains. Later on it might have appeared that I was overly cautious, but the truth is that I had learned my lessons and knew that caution should never be 'thrown to the wind'. It has served me well. I always recall the old adage..... There are old pilots and their are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots. If you are learning to fly, read lots of books on aviation accidents, learns as much as you can about weather and strike up conversations with the older pilots. You will learn a lot if you take their wisdom to heart.
I'm glad to hear you survived the accident. So far, I have not had any accidents, and I intend to keep it that way. As a consequence, I'm becoming more and more cautious as my retiring age is getting closer.
Regarding "there are old pilots and their are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots," there are a few exemptions. Recently, I met Blaine Bjarnarson, an experienced Twin Otter pilot with experience from Canada and Maldives. He has written a book about his life. It's named "Old Pilot Bold Pilot." Hereby recommeneded.
Very interesting video and loads of incredible quotes Magnar. I've got 150hrs & fall into the "old not bold" camp. My peers tell me I'm a good pilot but that has never stopped me from making mistakes and trying to learn from them. Sometimes it works... but I can see your point that I will be susceptible to the D-K effect at some time in my flying career. Thanks for highlighting this very important subject!
Couldn't agree more with you! Mine observation is that people not being educated experts, in the fields that are fairly complicated lacking basic toolset to understood the thing they trying to be armchair experts. Also the ability to find short answers for complicated subjects made thing worst. As you pointed there is a reason why pilots learning aerodynamics, doctors are studying chemistry, and engineers physics. Easy to be terribly wrong when skipping those initial steps 🤪
"A little learning is a dangerous thing." - Alexander Pope, _An Essay on Criticism,_ 1774
Magnar i can't be more agreeing with you. It is a life-time process and in the end, you realise you know so little and so much has still to be discovered. As a matter of fact when started hanggliding ot gave a whole new idea of flying and a different perspective. If you have the opportunity you should try. As always thank you for your input. 🙏
I started flying hangglider when I was 18. I learned a lot from that!
2+2=5... That "slogan" was constantly painted on my high-school - until the school board gave up and ordered a proper sign stating it!
I'm 58 and I can say quite safely that 95% of what I thought I knew and understood at 21 was either partially or completely wrong. Getting into a technical field and having to learn, troubleshoot and fix complex machines was humbling to say the least, but a great gift. I always tell young people starting out (if they'll listen) that one of the most important skills to have is to realize what you DON'T know and never feel ashamed to admit that. Go find the answer.
It is a pity I cannot give more than one like in this video. Great job, Magnar!
The self awareness of one's own relative ignorance often develops with increasing knowledge and experience.
I'm an airline pilot and certainly not a CFD engineer or anything like that. I realized at some point that I didn't really understood lift. I had learnt the basics of it but it didn't entirely make sense to me.
I then did some reading and watched some of the videos you watched yourself (Babinski, Fidkowski) and others (McLean, Anderson...). They all seem to have a different point of view on the issue... I might be wrong here but I see very marked difference in their respective explanations.
I came to the conclusion that it's a quite complex subject matter and that while the phenomenon is obviously well modelized and calculated, its root cause(s) is (are) still disputed. If asked, I would have to answer that I don't know what makes an airfoil fly. I have a reasonable understanding of the factors involved but eventually, I don't know WHY.
Keep up the good work cpt. In the middle of my atpls. It’s crazy the amount of students who just want to get through the subjects to “just pass” so they can move on. Knowledge is power especially when things go wrong up there. I can’t get enough of some subjects 🤣
Your fellow students will get the shock of their life when they start on their first type rating 🤣
Edit: They should also think about their future job interviews. Many chief pilots like to ask about aviation related topics like regulations, aircraft performance, etc.
Haha, “pass the top gun stage” … love it. I’m just few hours pass the 200 mark. I agree, after certain amount of hours (or maybe just my age too) you learn to sit out the bad weather and other bad behaviours.
Brilliant video and important message. Well done.
Thank you very much! Indeed: Not only a good Pilot is always learning.
hello capt. waitiong for your take on Nepal Yeti airlines crash
Thank you . I learned something. (and can't wait to learn more).
Great video Magnar. It was fun to see a picture of your family!
I think the mistake that people make is thinking that the Bernoulli effect relies on the cross section alone, not the angle of attack .
And there are loads of video's explaining that, the cross section of the wing is not the main driver of lift, which is true, and that shape uses said effect. And is then mentally shortend by either the maker of the video he got his info from, or themselves to the Bernoulli effect has a minority part in making lift. What happens then when someone says, the Bernoulli effect, they think, I know that, thats not important, its the angle of attack!.
Even if this is also simplified, have not looked it up, but I am pretty sure the cross section becomes a major factor of lift with full flaps, or at least really significant.
thank you for this video, I hope peoples will learn from this !
Hello Captain.could you please make a video , for Manual flying with FD and Raw data flying ? Thank you
I like the idea, that we’re only dwarfs standing on the shoulders of giants.
Well done🙂
Some guys are addicted to fly. And will lie to their friends and family about "I know how to fly with strong winds" Or "I know how to fly in this bad weather, LETS GO ! Thousands of passengers have been killed by those guys. You have to be able to spot a liar. Liars are overconfident a lot.
Yes I know it very well.
Nicholas in his book discusses the properties of the human and animal brainm. For my research presentation, I wold like to cite the scientific origin of this model. I can't find it in Nicholas' book, so I assume I have seen it in one of your numerous videos. Did you mention this reference (the researcher), or did I see it elsewhere?
I'm sorry, but I don't know the source for this.
Because our life is so short relatively speaking and we learn all the time. Would you say its better to learn a little about everything than concentrate on one subject?
How about both?
Quick question: if a pilot like me has no competence to begin with, but loads of confidence, is it still the effect in the title?
I think you are suffering from the Dunning Kruger effect, too. You missed the other half of the effect, like most people that think they understand it. You explained the insult side of the meaning, the meaning one would use when belittling beginners.
There is another side of it, that causes experts to overestimate the competence of their peers. When a true expert sees shoddy work, they are very likely to attribute it to laziness, malice, carelessness, recklessness, or something negative, because in their mind, that person is just as capable as they are, so it "must have been" that negative thing.
I suffer from it, too. I get all mad about poorly made programming libraries and frameworks. I can't resist thinking they didn't care. Even when I consciously remind myself it is the Dunning Kruger effect.
The usual answer from an IT Expert how a computer works: "It explains itself."
NO, IT DOESN´T!!!😕
Expecting employees to be better than they are? That's what I call the Elon Musk effect.
Your videos are always interesting and informative! Gott nytt år från Sverige!
Godt nytt år!
The Far Side. Hilarious!!!