Turns out it’s harder than I thought. But we all got a chance to learn about unconscious overconfidence. Where else do you see the Dunning-Kruger Effect show up in the world?
Truck driving, everyone thinks they know how a truck works, and they think they're all the same. Every load, every trailer, every trip is different and you're literally just winging it with your experience every second of every day, especially with the terrible drivers in the cars being the worst drivers ever.
I AM a pilot, and I instructed in a 737 simulator for about a year and a half. The first of your actual manual landings was not a crash. I don't know why he told you that you "crushed the gear". Your rate of descent was fine at touchdown. In fact, it was even softer than the auto-land did. And the 737 is capable of REALLY planting onto the runway, which is actually a safer landing in adverse weather. I'd call that first landing a success. Though, the rest were... well... rough.
It was a bit hard to tell, but it's possible he landed too far forward on the front gear before the back gears. I've heard the larger planes are meant to land on the rear gears, which can take a lot of punishment, unlike the front. But I have no clue what I'm talking about, so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt
I'm curious, do pilots these days generally use autopilot to land, or do they do it manually? Presumably they still have to keep in practice in case the autopilot fails?
Depending on the equipment and category of approach you can either use Autoland, or (my preference) disconnect the autopilot 200 feet or more above the ground and hand fly the last part of the approach.@@monkeymox2544
Manually, although for the early approach phase, the plane flies on autopilot, you baby sit it until on final [around 1 nautical mile out (VARIES)], then you disengage the AP and hand fly the aircraft carefully to touchdown, in case of an emergency or bad weather, A CAT III verified aircraft can perform a landing via the computer (auto land), although this is not always available, and in very bad weather conditions planes will simply not be permitted to fly.@@monkeymox2544
When people say "I could land the plane", you did exactly what they think they could do . No one thinks they'd have a commercial-level landing, but people think they have the possibility to make sure everyone lands without dying. You literally proved that it's possible.
Only on the new-gen plane that could land itself tho. On the other planes he set one on fire and one crashed, it just didn't show in the simulator itself.
That’s what I figured. I bet I could land it. Would it be a good landing? No of course not, the plane will probably be damaged in the millions for repair, but I would be able to walk off of it rather than be carried away in a body bag.
It seems that with more coordination it’s quite possible to land the plane. You can’t say everyone is going to “crunch” the landing gear. If he didn’t make that same 1 mistake twice it would have been a complete success. P.s. every single large commercial aircraft has autopilot for flying and landing for at least 20 years now. I was a guest in the cockpit for a commercial flight and the pilot asked me if he should manually land the plane without autopilot so I could watch, and he did. They are pretty smooth he did it like it was nothing, perfectly, and we were laughing and joking around with the other crew in the cockpit.
@@Spunkton you're missing his point. When someone says "I could land a plane" they mean "I could put this plane on the ground without killing as many people as if it crashed uncontrolled", which the video absolutely showed. You would have caused millions in damages, but at least people wouldn't be dead. Both crashes would have resulted in damages and fires, but the emergency crews would have been standing by because ATC would know that there is an untrained civilian flying a massive plane. So most would have survived.
As a 20 year pilot I’m impressed that he could even make it to the runway especially in the weather. Keep hitting the Microsoft flight sim. It’s clearly paying off.
I'm a student pilot, and yet I feel like I know absolutely nothing about what I'm doing....all of the time 😆 But yeah.... He did good considering he isn't in any actual classes.
@@RedBroski Yeah, I don't think its till you're a student pilot that you realize just how overwhelming it can be. Even simple things become hard because you're so task saturated. Good luck on the training!
As a pilot I would say that on your second attempt you would probably have saved all lives on board, despite damaging the plane. In an emergency situation I'm happy to call that a successful landing.
I agree. Couldnt have asked for a better outcome! That touchdown looks like maybe 800-900fpm+ heavy, will probably have structural dmg but all lives saved maybe minor injuries nothin too serious. I mean, untrained, first time in a full motion sim, getting instructions via radio or from the back and having to figure out what the instructions mean. The stress levels would be immense esp in a real life landing. So he did great!
If you can walk away from the landing, it's a good one. If you can use the plane again, it's a great landing. If the plane doesn't require any repairs it was a perfect landing.
There's a difference between a crash, and a crash with fatalities. If a good landing is one you walk away from and as far as I'm concerned you did an impressive job. Plus taking into account BOS has a huge runaway and many emergency services, if the pilots stroke out on my flight I'd definitely want you to land it.
My first time with my instructor, while he was lining up the runway he said "every landing is a crash, either controlled or uncontrolled, but any crash you walk away from is a good landing"
Landing a 737 with no flying experience: I’m not at all confident that anyone besides myself would be smart enough and brave enough to even attempt this and actually have a good chance at success. I would 100% step up and say “Everyone please relax, I’ve got this” to the entire 737 plane full of people and see if there’s another person on board that was not a total panicky idiot, and if we’re extremely lucky there would be someone and then I would be even more confident and would ensure everyone on board that we will all be landing safely and they would be with their loved ones shortly while reassuring them again of our absolutely certain ability to get us on the ground safely. I’d give it a 99.999% chance we succeed as long as we keep coms with our real pilot on the ground and or air traffic controllers. It might not be perfectly straight, and someone still may need to come onboard to help us park, or drive us up to the gate but I know for an absolute fact that I can check my ego with pride and would for sure let that happen if needed. We would all be very happy regardless, and I would laugh at our story and my inability to drive her once on the ground about not being able to park this big old’ plane but could manage figure out how to get us all on the ground safely!
There's a quote on the videogame War Thunder that talks exactly about that. It goes as following; "The plane is on the ground and the pilot is alive, a great landing it is!"
But there are airports with runways that aren't very big. Narita (Japan) has an infamously short runway because of huge failures in acquiring land for the airport that led to decades of protests that are technically still ongoing. But there's also the fact that take off and landing are the most dangerous times. Chances are, any untrained landing is going to end in fatalities, not end with a mere crash.
I've encountered the term, "Dunning-Kruger Effect," countless times. I think it's totally awesome that you actually had Dunning included in your video.
There is also a positive side to the Dunning-Kruger effect, because if people really knew what was ahead of them, a lot of people wouldn't have started the journey in the first place.
Yea, if someone asks if you know how to land a plane say you know how to operate the radio. The emergency frequency is 121.5 MHz and will always have someone lisening unless your out of range of everyone.
@@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 Even then you have UHF. Tune to different frequencies on the MCDU and callout. Stay in the lower frequencies like single digits. Kinda sucks having to spray and pray but it's better than nothing. If the plane has wifi and you can see an airports IATA code on one of the DU's you can Google their ATC's frequency. All of this assumes you have time though. I'd assume that autopilot and autothrottle are already on in this scenario. Commercial jets have TCAS so other airliners will most likely deviate. Now smaller planes without TCAS. Someone who doesn't know anything about an airplane will probably just be scared and confused about why the plane is yelling at them to climb/descend. Assuming automatic TCAS isn't on.
@@Edss-nr6xw A smaller plain tho is easyer to fly manually. Its more responsible, big engines take longer to spin up and bigger objects take longer to slow down.
I have a bachelor degree in aviation: I became a pilot in college. This donning-krueger affect I think it's very real and without knowing it, I experienced it during my flight training. That's where good instructors come in. Because you don't know what you don't know, it's a very fine line to know when you did something well or need improvement. Flight training is all about training, training, and training some more; you build from the previous lesson and before you know it, you're proficient. Handle an emergency while you're task saturated... do that and you can be taught to fly. What he said about chain of events is so true. There's never ever any one reason why accidents happen; it's always a chain of events and we strive to stop that chain of events at any one point.
The second and third attempt, while technically a crash, would probably totally survivable by most if not all passengers. That's good enough for a novice.
I've been watching a lot of flight videos lately. So, how confident am I that I could land a plane? Assuming full automation and ideal conditions, close to 100%. A fully manual landing, also 100%. Granted, survival of the plane and passengers in that situation would probably be around 0%, but I could definitely get the plane out of the sky and onto the ground.
Valid! Specific parameters such as: “survival of all on board” and “plane is still capable of flying afterward” really do make all the difference here.
This reminds me of when I was learning to drive. From what others have told me it seems that this is a pretty universal experience, but when I started learning to drive I was cautious because I knew that I didn’t know much. But by the time I went through the process of having a permit, taking the tests, and getting my required hours of experience I was confident in my abilities. So I wasn’t all that cautious after I got my license. And within the first year, like many others, I got into an accident. The accident really showed me just how inexperienced I was and it made me much more cautious as a driver and I think I’m a much better driver because of it.
@@Kunyitthecatto as if all of the world's problems are caused by lack of individual self reflection. Unicorns would decend from the heavens to facilitate efficient trade and end starvation and suffering all around the world! And there would be no need for silly things like resources, or armies or borders because we'd all be super self reflective
When I was first learning to drive (in the very first driving lesson, when I had never driven before) my driving instructor showed me how to put the car in reverse and how to change gears and then he was just like: "Ok, now drive the car onto this 60km/h road". I definitely did not feel confident that I knew what I was doing.
I recommend driving to a place you haven't been before/are unfamiliar with once and a while if you get too cocky. I'm terrible at directions and suddenly forget how to read signs from being panicky. Muscle memory controls a lot more than people think and is probably why it's even possible to blank out while driving in the first place.
@@Chloe-dc3bm I got the chance to take off, fly, and land all on my “own” in a real plane with zero training whatsoever😅, and I found out that even flying straight is WAY more complicated than I expected, and I had played a lot of simulators. Now honestly landing was easier somehow, but hella scary, I felt like I was at a 45° angle
This is 100% the case in survival scenarios as well. It's well documented that since the new survival shows have become more and more popular (think Survivorman, Survivor, Man vs Wild) more and more people incorrectly assume they can survive in the wilderness and end up getting lost in a large forest requiring rescue.
Beyond those shows, in my experience most people who hunt/fish/grow crops overestimate their ability to survive after a cataclysmic disaster/event. And while they would likely survive better than someone without those skills, they probably wouldn't do as well as they initially thought.
Or people thinking they can be an effective President of the United States or CEO because they've seen other people do it, but wind up being a disaster
“An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.” Niels Bohr I love this quote, i always put it in the end of all my classes. Both from the angle of how important mistakes and exposure/experience is to building knowledge and also to dispel the myth that the best professional never had a mistake or is beyond failing. I think a lot of what has been learned had huge prices, how many first aviators died? But being able to learn from their mistakes without paying the same price is what makes the right education a miracle. Forming pilots, surgeons, nuclear physicists without deaths is a miracle.
I was considered an expert by others in my industry and was asked to train new staff. It used to make me angry as hell. So many things that I was never taught but had to learn by trial and error and they would have me train others.
In regards to the statistics about partially experienced pilots being more deadly than new pilots…I’ve been a carpenter for 25 years now and when I was just starting out the guy I worked for made a comment about how this same phenomenon manifests itself in my profession. After I had been framing houses for about six months I was feeling like I finally understood how (when I started I was completely inexperienced with building things or even using tools) a house is built, and my confidence led me to take on a side job building a deck for my cousin. When I told my boss he replied, “Keep in mind you know just enough to be dangerous.” What he was saying was that I think I can build a house on my own, but there’s still so much I have to learn that if I do attempt it on my own I will likely make mistakes that I’m not even aware of, and could build something that isn’t structurally sound, which could be very dangerous to the homeowner if a structural failure occurred. Now, 25 years later as a very experienced contractor I realize how little I knew, but how confident I was in my abilities.
I am a pilot. I can tell you that flying IS mentally exhausting. On the subject of "Dunning-Kruger", long before I had even heard of the study, I would talk of the five stages of competence: Unconsciously Incompetent - You don't know what you don't know. You have absolutely no idea what you must learn. Consciously Incompetent - You now have some idea of the enormity of the task before you but you still don't know how to do it. Consciously Competent - You can now do it. However, you must think about it in order to be able to do it. You cannot do it automatically. Unconsciously Competent - Now you can do it without thinking about it. You can walk AND chew gum. This, often inevitably, leads to: Unconsciously Incompetent - You are not paying attention to what you are doing. You have over-estimated your ability and have grown complacent. ("The Killing Zone"). The trick is to remain somewhere between Step 3 and Step 4. Allow your automatic responses to do the thing (be "pilot flying") whilst your conscious mind pays attention to your performance (being "Pilot Monitoring").
yep, hence I love checklists and their procedures. They actually give you a reason to go through every step without being fully "automated" on doing them. Although I'm pretty sure many airmen had the situation where they said check although it wasn't, also by habits after doing a known checklist for the umpteens time. ^^
@@BruceCarbonLakeriver - Likewise. I am a great believer in the efficacy of checklists. Quite often, for some things, i don't even use written checklists. I use "visual" checklists. For example, I am preparing to leave the house to travel. Rather than write up a checklist. I put all the things I need to take in one place so that I know that I have everything when that area is clear. A rather simplistic example but I think it illustrates the kind of thing that I mean.
I used to race motocross and we would talk about the most dangerous racers. We agreed that beginners were somewhat dangerous, especially in the first turn. However, it was the newly ranked novices (one class up from beginners) who were the most dangerous. They start to believe they have it all figured out and push beyond their capabilities and frequently cause the worst accidents. Expert class was the safest, and fastest class. Everyone knows what they are doing, and can reliably predict what others will do.
As a pilot, it is quite flattering to hear that you are so fascinated with our work. In the same way, I am fascinated with scientific topics in which you are the professional, haha. Landing is typically the most delicate and often stressful part of flying, and you actually did better than I was expecting. Great video!
Landing is definitely the most stressful. Esp. if the ILS system is down or the airfield doesn't have one. Take off is not much of an issue and once in the air at altitude there's not much to be worried about.
@@brucesmith5426 Interestingly in a glider it is the opposite. Landing is less stressfull than taking off. There are way more things that can go wrong at landing than at taking off.
@@haltux I couldn't tell you about a glider. In a true glider you could be correct.It could be as most don't have any type of thrust involved for T/O. But any landing is just a controlled crash.
You know what is scary? You dont recognize how valuable your knowledge and ability is and you need others to remind you. This is not a grey hound bus even though because of the can of tuna with wings feeling ppl get from the cramped seating. For reference look at how much a bus driver makes compared to a pilot and if you still cant figure out your value after that you should probably stop piloting especially with passengers. You want to have a pity party and fly into a mountain, do it alone please, thanks.
0:45 I'm an avionics technician. I've dabbled in Microsoft Flight Simulator and know a decent amount about how planes work. I can't land one. But I know that COM1 or COM2 is probably already set to the nearest ATC tower, look for the Push-To-Talk button on the CCD, press it and ask them to guide me through it. The good thing is autopilot will help a lot. The bad news is you still have to get the jet in the right configuration for approach, descent and landing. You also have to line up with the runway correctly. I've seen crosswinds nearly make senior pilots cause a tail strike or wing strike. If there's a crosswind you're boned.
I have always said, I can guarantee you that while having never flown an aircraft bigger than a suitcase, I can land a plane. I make no promises about the number of casualties however, even a crash landing is a landing and I never promised anyone would survive, lol. That being said. I think a decent number of people, if they can keep calm, could land a plane with at least one of the passengers surviving. In a modern plane even with adverse weather, probably some people will survive which is still better than none.
@@2009dudeman Most people don't know this but planes are made of aluminum. It's light weight and usually hundredths of an inch thick. A scratch big enough to catch your finger on the skin of the aircraft (the green under panels, it's green because it's bare aluminum with primer on it) is required to be depth tested to see if it's within limits. Happened where I work recently. Someone scratched the skin and NDT had to come out with an ultrasonic test set to determine the thickness of the skin in that spot. It was within limits (thankfully) but people who don't understand how fragile the fuselage skin is wouldn't understand why such a tiny scratch is cause for major concern. Aluminum is delicate. Over time as the fuselage expands and contracts due to extreme temperatures at higher altitudes and cabin pressurization that tiny scratch will become a crack in a relatively short amount of time. Eventually it will lead to rapid depressurization. Aluminum is malleable and flexes well. That's also its weakness. For reference, thicker aluminum foil is around 0.072 inches thick. A lot of planes have skin thicknesses around 0.125 inches. Not even an entire one-hundredth of an inch thicker. I'm not an engineer by any means. But that alone doesn't give me much hope for the odds of a decently hard landing going well. Because I *seriously* doubt with the yoke in the hands of a completely inexperienced person they will be able to keep the jets landing gear parallel with the runway. _Especially_ if there's a crosswind. A tail strike would be devastating. A wing strike would be bad too. All in all, in my experience, engineers focus their effort on the computer systems and flight surfaces on board to mitigate the need for a hard landing... in the hands of an experienced pilot. We're talking about someone who potentially hasn't even played microsoft flight simulator taking a stab at it. My money is on the decimating themselves and anything nearby.
@@Edss-nr6xw none of that is relevant to the fact that having even a completely unaware person in the cockpit with ATC provides a higher chance of survival for people on the plane, than lacking the cockpit empty in case of pilot incapacitation, which has a result of 100% fatalities. Cool that you are in the industry, but having a person that's alive and can follow an order from someone, on it's own, provides a higher chance of survival than a person that's incapacitated and can't follow orders. We saw it here where listening to the actual pilot tell you how to program the plane resulted in a rather 'normal ' landing. Adverse weather just increases the risk of critical damage, it doesn't make auto pilot non-functional. Besides, chances are the pilots are incapacitated long before diversion to better weather isn't possible, at which point you can be talked through the process.
I was also an airframe mech. The thing is anyone simple-minded like me can learn to land on their first flight in the sim even without calm winds. You can practically make the airliners autoland with some simple guidance. In real life, you would probably break the landing gear to some extent. He was in a sim, so I have no idea what was really holding him back besides not being a pragmatic guy maybe. Plenty of people have landed planes in real life emergencies where the pilot was incapacitated. It's not easy, but these people didn't even slide off the runway. Also, they would guide you to an airport without a crosswind or anything.
After a couple of Ryan air flights I thought “this cannot be normal” and “are they landing like this on purpose?” Go figure they do, they are trained to land with a faster approach to reduce the chances of having to abort the landing, no matter the weather or wind situation. They argue is safer but mostly is to reduce the chances of delays and costs caused by aborted landings.
I remember reading that the Dunning-Kreuger effect was strongest for highly competent experts (PhDs, the worlds bests surgeons, etc) when dealing with fields other than their specialty.
Wow! That's interesting. Especially when you dig deep knowledge in your field, you should realize how much respect you have to give into other fields..
That's really surprising. The PhDs I know essentially all suffer from imposter syndrome, they're far from being overconfident even in their own fields. I can see older, successful, established Phds being the opposite though.
I talked with the world-famous Andreas Gruentzig, M.D. (Heidelberg) just days before he flew his Beechcraft into the ground. I was told that he was sure his altimeter was wrong, though I have no direct knowledge of that.
I went to one when I was in high school. The flight part was so fun. I was too nervous to land. I will never forget that flight. Also it was a hot day and when we were taxiing out and a tar patch stuck to one of the tires.
@Don't Read My Profile Photo dude....why??? Too many people do this and it's totally pointless and more of an annoyance than anything. You aren't actually joining a conversation, you are interrupting one to basically say "look at me!" and what exactly do you gain from doing this?? You could do some really cool stuff with your UA-cam but you chose to do this "don't read" stuff. Why?? What is the end result you are expecting from doing this??
I love that, essentially, at 2:52 Dunning is telling us most people who think they know what the D-K effect is, display themselves the effect: “[it’s] an*entire family* of effects, but the one that everybody knows is […]”. Touché, Dr. Dunning!
I remember when my dad got our first flight simulator. He had (short-lived) asperations of learning how to fly, so he bought some gear to make the practices more realistic. Like I said, he gave up pretty quickly, but I loved the simulator and played for years. The one frustration I had was that, unlike my dad, I couldn't seem to land any of the planes. I started to feel better when I met someone with the same problem-my uncle, a former air force pilot who's been flying 737s since I was an infant. He was a co-captain when he realized that he couldn't land planes on Microsoft Flight Simulator, so part of his job was literally to handle the landing of the plane he couldn't land in the simulator. That made me feel a little better lol
I worked with a field service technician that had previously worked on flight simulators. He said a pilot took him up in a small plane. When they were cruising the pilot asked if he wanted to fly it. He said he didn't know how. The pilot said he had experience with flight simulators. So my friend took over and made level and going the right direction. Then the plane starting climbing so my friend adjusted the flaps and leveled it off again. Then it started diving and he again go it to right altitude and level. Then he realized the pilot was laughing his head off. The pilot was a big guy and was sitting at the center of gravity and leaning forward and backwards. The pilot said that flight simulators don't simulate everything.
I'm a pilot myself .First of all great content . For some clarification . Being a pilot isn't about just handling the controls , it's about doing and knowing much more things . Some of which are knowing how the weather behaves , emergency procedures , laws in the air ,aircrafts systems etc...besides the landing techniques differ between weather conditions . Watching many documenteries about the human body for fun does not give anyone 1 percent of the knowledge of a real doctor . Again great content , keep it up !
To say it more simply, as a pilot you need to be a manager and have a vast amount of knowledge and skills that you can instantly recall to make the right decisions that will bring the aircraft safely back to the ground.
@@kellydalstok8900 Thanks for the info and I'll make sure to remember that before my next flight. Maybe knowimg that can help me develop my skills in training.
@@MrCoffis flying safely is also about gaining sufficient experience of what certain g forces feel like on the body and being aware of optical and other physiological illusions
That “Airplane” reference was absolutely necessary, thanks! 😂 This was a great example of the Dunning-Kruger(sp?) effect. As I heard so often back in the 70’s, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Even worse, the simulation is an ideal scenario. Clear skies, good weather, no turbulence, no other planes, no worries about if you can land and where, no screaming passengers, along with the fact that you know it isn’t real so you aren’t as freaked out and stressed as you would be.
Well, you don't have to worry too much about other planes. ATC would be vectoring the other planes away from the emergency landing that you're making, because you're going to crash and there will be a fire.
Yeah, in an actual crisis, Gilded Bear is correct. The MOMENT you've announced the in air emergency, even while ATC is telling you how to switch the transponder to emergency frequency, other controllers are clearing the sky as far and wide as they can possibly make it for you... You'll pretty much have the whole of the airspace to yourself.
Because I've watched this video on the Dunning-Kruger effect, I'm 100% confident I know everything about it and I'm now a qualified expert on knowing what I don't know.
I'm an archaeologist, and each time we do activities in which we interact with visitors, I know I'm bound to get that one person who's going to know everything better than me because they watched a documentary. And oh boy that particular person will let you know that they possess The Knowledge.
Actually, thats just not true....historically speaking novices are actually more likely to complete a task with more success than a relevant expert....I saw a documentary about this.
@@wiredforstereo The number of people who bash vegans versus the numbers of vegans who actually behave the way they're accused of, it's like 100-to-1. And I'd take a proselytizing vegan over a hateful meat-eater any day. Keep burning the planet, my friend.
Well the question is: How do you become an expert? By reading, and watching, and gaining experience from other experts. Takes a significant amount of time, but at some level of study, you become an expert yourself. And at that point, you yourself contribute to the knowledge base.
"The knowledge you need to come to the right decision is exactly the same knowledge that you need to decide whether or not the right decision has been made." "If you lack the first, then you lack the knowledge needed for the second assessment." This blew my mind. Never forgetting this quote I think.
And probably the same for everything else that has a "kill zone", I'll bet. Familiarity breeds contempt - until it's bred out of you by ohgodohgodwe'reallgonnadie. Still, I am convinced that people who need to acquire a domain skill on a routine basis (e.g., software developers) have a slightly higher tolerance to the DK effect - by pattern recognition if nothing else. That is to say: by the fifth or seven time that you went "how hard can this be?" and then followed up with "oh god this is hard", if you are tempted to go "how hard can this be?" again you will probably get that feeling of foreboding that goes "oh wait, I've seen this movie, I think I know how it ends". Spoiler warning: it never ends well. The usual result is that, instead of underestimating te required effort by two orders of magnitude, you might only underestimate by one. Ain't that great? Insert AI joke here.
@@o0alessandro0o Somthing that takes skill to keep you alive needs to respected at All times. Ego = Accidents . In most cases that iv observed at least.
@@o0alessandro0o no not at all realy but I agree with you. Iv seen this myself when I 1st acquire my motorcycle license. The people that came with no experience are all still alive that I know of. But out of the 5 people that came in with "claimed experience" 2 of them were killed the 1st year on the rd legally and 1 a couple years later. All 3 at excessive speeds on a road that couldn't possibly support high speeds. Their egos litraly killed them..
As someone who just recently completed the motorcycle training course, acquired my license and began riding, I remind myself of this before every ride to bring me back to reality so I try not to exceed my current skills.
I'm so glad you covered this. As a pilot I actually get people who come up to me on occasion telling me that they could do my job as well as I can (maybe not verbatum, but it's what they imply). Whenever I ask about their training or qualifications, they don't give me anything substantial. Not trying to pat myself on the back, but I know more about planes and flying them than the average joe with no real training/experience. But I know very little about a bunch of other topics as well. I can't tell you how to install or fix an HVAC unit, or electrical wiring. Just trust the experts in their fields. We know a lot that you don't about certain subjects.
As a sim racer and aviation nerd, i would love to get the chance to crash in one of these beautifull machines, i used to play alot of flight sim as a kid
The idea that the video and vibrations of the simulator don’t show when you crash is absolutely wildly pathetic. It’s such an obvious and basic requirement for this to even be vaguely realistic.
In my field (surgery) we say that there are two “peaks” of mistakes in the practice, from the “young” surgeon (based on ignorance/inexperiece) and from the “older” surgeon (based on overconfidence). You gotta keep a very high degree of self confidence to cut people open, but its also very healthy to have a certain dose of fear/doubt to not cut your own fingers off 😂
As a lawyer who has a lot of cases revolving around medical malpractice (on both sides, so I sometimes represent the suing patient and sometimes defend the accused doctor/hospital), I can 100 % confirm this. The vast majority of cases we have are either surgeons who have less than 5 years or more than 30 years of experience.
Winnipeg had a pediatric cardiac surgeon retire. His replacement was confident and attempted surgeries on infants that might not have been advisable. Before long the nurses refused to work with him in OR.
My wife was a flight attendant. We traveled a lot, and it was a running joke that maybe THIS would finally be the flight where I might be needed to be the emergency volunteer (with no flight training) to land the plane safely. Of course, this is really the stuff of movies, like Airport 75 and Airplane. But it's an effective way to illustrate DK. Thanks!
It's happened quite a lot in real life though. Just recently down in Miami a passenger had to land when the pilot had a heart attack and I'm pretty sure she didn't have any experience.
@@hellterminator that's assuming both pilots and all flight attendants are incapacitated at the same time. But yes, it's definitely not as likely to happen on a big commercial jet.
This video perfectly demonstrates the importance of Crew Renource Management and the priority structure of Aviate-Navigate-Communicate. The pilot flying needs to focus on keeping the aircraft in the air. The other pilot needs to focus on navigating, reading checklists, and communicating with air traffic control. It's pretty crazy to juggle all of those tasks by yourself, let alone without any real piloting experience.
This effect was pretty obvious to me when I switched operating systems from Windows to Linux. Now I had watched a fair share of videos about all sorts of different things and how to set stuff up, but when I had the first issues I was completely at a loss for a solution in that moment. Some things took a lot more time and getting familiar with before I was able to actually execute them well, things like customization options which I thought were super easy turned out to be FAR above my skill level yet. But through pushing across that hill I now slowly start to actually be able to understand what I actually can and cannot do with my system. This was a very nice demonstration for me on how I vastly overestimated my skill set, especially since I always considered myself to be a bit of a tech-savy.
I use Linux without a GUI for my job and for research. But I know that I can mess things up that would take so long to repair that I keep my data separate from the OS/docker, load the data that I want to the OS file system, manipulate it there, and then manually backup data after analysis. That way I can't accidently corrupt my data, and when things go wrong I just use a new image/docker/fresh install. I want to eventually use linux with a GUI as my day to day OS, but I remember how lost and overwhelmed I get when certain tools I need have compatibility issues, and how many different ways there are of setting different settings, that I know that I eventually would be able to get over major hills. In this case, even after you become an expert, a lot of it will actually seem quite simple, and you will wonder why you felt so intimidated before, because it wasn't really that it was hard, it was just unfamiliar.
@@eroraf8637 yeah, especially since a lot of platforms / frameworks seem to not understand the importance of having docs other than very terrible docs made directly from their javadocs annotations
@@baadlyrics8705 Agreed. A flight simmer does know more than someone who knows nothing about aviation, but I never for a moment thought that one of us could fly and land a 737 without ripping the plane apart and killing everyone or very nearly everyone aboard. Full autopilot ILS landing, sure but not manually.
when i was a young kid at some random sports & 'remote control crafts' store at some random place with my random uncle i once stumbled upon a legit simuator setup for flight sims. i spent the next hour trying to just bloody land. my uncle wanted to leave after an hour but APPERANTLY he was so amazed i was silent and focussed that he let me be. took me over 2 hours of repeated attempts to finally make it to 3 safe landings in a row. Ever since i've never ever believed i could land a real jet (without serious) training.
So the quote from Socrates: "I know that I do not know." is more current than ever. Thanks for the video. Well made. It was fun, and I do appreciate the interview with Mr. Dunning. PS: (SCNR) It seems many people with a little knowledge "in the death zone", who have an outrageously huge self assurance like to go to politics... And too many tend to believe them as these guys radiate confidence.
I used to watch videos like that and in depth explanations of how all the systems of an aircraft work. Eventually, I started taking flight lessons and flying real planes, and I realized that, while those videos helped me a lot, there is a huge difference between learning about flying a plane and actually doing it.
What was he talking about? Was he referring to his own ignorance about the knowledge of Musk’s knowledge? One of the benefits of a PhD is that you have to teach complete newbies in your field, and neophytes, and undergrads majoring in your field. PhDs can speak to and explain at many levels. It is an incidental part of the degree process. Musk has spent the better part of two decades understanding “rocket science” and has demonstrated the ability to explain what is going on to complete idiots.
I'm also curious what he was referring to, and have little clue. My best guess is that he's referring to the fact that Elon has defended the name "autopilot" in Tesla's cars for their ADAS as an imperfect system, and that Dr. Dunning has something to say about that since this autopilot apparently is pretty powerful/reliable, given some location information. But maybe it's related to Dragon/Starship landings? Or something else?
I have to object to "technically, I crashed" after the second landing. You may have damaged the plane and started a fire, but you were in the air, and now you're not, and you're still alive, and that means that you, sir, have just landed. It might not have been pretty, and it may *also* be accurate to say you crashed, but if I'm the proverbial passenger asked to land the plane, my take is simple: any landing that everyone walks away from is a good landing, period.
i saw tons of the dunning-kreuger effect in art school lol its amazing to me to see how confident an artist can get with a few successful projects under their belt. I, myself might be smack dab in the middle of this effect but being self aware about your abilities can definitely help you check your ego.
I do electronics since 4 and I'm always confident I could make a particular circuit irl from my head. But everytime I try I feel absolutely the most idiot person in this planet.
I wish there was a way to get more good feedback on my 3D art. Although I've learned a lot and can do pretty well in some areas, there is still so SO much I do not know especially in fundamentals like anatomy that I really really would like to learn more of, but I usually do not get much good feedback at all when I ask online.
This has to be one of the best videos I have watched on UA-cam. I now know, that I actually don't know anything. So I just quit my job for everyone's safety. But seriously. As every year passes and I gain more knowledge in my profession, I lose more and more confidence in my ability to do the job, I've done for 10 years.
I've played flight sims since I was a little kid, I bought some commercial simulator time for my 30th birthday I didn't crash it a single time and could even do a ILS approach. It was really fun and I plan on doing it again for my 40th. The hardest part really is getting used to the coordination required for using rudder, throttle, and the yoke at the same time while monitoring your speed it's very different than playing a sim on your computer
Depending on how you've played them, the gap between your knowledge and reality may vary a lot. Also depends on what you mean by learning to drive. Is it common driving like getting your driver's licence, or are you talking about race-driving?
@@stryker1797and in addition, what game, and the experience and lesson from playing the game, since Mario Kart is also called a racing game alongside games like Forza, Need For Speed, GRID and such. I'd prefer not talk about Forza Horizon.
I'm a 17 year old aviation enthusiast. I love planes, and I fly intercontinental flights on Microsoft FSX and FS20, I'd love to try and take off and land a plane in a real simulation. This video was really fun to watch ❤
Loved your analysis from the practical data. I myself have flown Cessna and i know that flying a sim and the real deal is way way different. Our virtual worlds have exposed us to more and more to this affect and the need to fit socially actually cause most of us to - fake it, till we make it. Cheers!!!
I'm an aerospace structural analysis engineer with over 10 years of experience. I think I gained a lot of confidence when I realized there is no way in hell I know everything, ask dumb questions (even when I feel like I'm expected to know it), and have other people look at my work.
This is a great subject. I am fairly proficient in flying helicopters in Sims but after trying in real life I wasn't prepared for how different the two are. I knew it would be difficult but I didn't realize how much. One thing most sums don't prepare you for us for are the feelings of positive and negative gs and their effect on flight and the lack of feedback through the controls. Some force feedback controllers could give you a slight idea but not like real life. Lastly I wasn't prepared for turblance and what effect it has on helicopters in real life. I would be cruising along at 1100 ft and traveling 70 knts and the whole. Helicopter would jump up and sideways. This is a feeling that no home simulator can replicate to my knowledge.
I fly RC helicopters and let two of my friends try them, one of whom is a helicopter pilot. Both rolled the aircraft almost instantly and then insisted "but I didn't push the stick that way!" A cousin of mine who's a fixed-wing pilot was able to briefly hover my heli, set it back down, and then handed the radio back and said "yeah that's *really* hard, thanks for letting me try!"
@@stickyfox I was just thinking about RC helicopters. I used to fly one with a 40 inch rotor with a glow fuel engine. That thing was a b@#tch to learn to fly! Aint nooo way I would let someone "just try it." You're basically letting them crash your stuff.
@@lovetofly32 I know it was dumb... but it was a Blade CP with cheap parts and I'd crashed it so many times I could rebuild it in minutes.... Plus, the very first time I tried to hover it like the videos, with the ping-pong balls and everything, it just rolled right over and broke without even leaving the ground and it was kinda my first impression too, "but I didn't even push the stick that way!"
@@stickyfox Flying RC helicopters takes a lot of training and muscle memory because you have to predict what the heli will do before it does it, if you act on reaction only you crash ...
I done fine my first try on a sim.. only broke one wing clean off and blew out every tire.. lol. never stop learning in your field(s) is how you avoid D-K... and stay in them..
"Is there anyone here who knows how to land a plane?!" Raises hand "You do??" "I mean... I've played flight sims before." "Sir, please put your hand down." "okay."
Ehhh, you'd be surprised just how in depth some of us go and how much we know. In fact someone with 500 hours of time flying their fake 737 would have a far better chance at landing than the 150 hour C152 pilot. I've seen videos where they do this kind of comparison and you can tell the 152 pilot is in WAY over his head and he knows it.
Someone with sim experience would be much better than someone with 0 idea of how to fly an aircraft. However I think the flight attendants could do a better job than 99 percent of people so unless you are a pilot or at least an aerospace engineer, you should keep your hand down unless you are literally the only person still physically able to try.
@Joseph flight attendants receive emergency training and the know the procedures to follow when the pilots are incapacitated, they should in theory remain calm in case of an emergency which is very important. If my memory serves me correctly they have assisted pilots in certain emergencies of a similar nature before, let me go dig that up.
I love aviation channels. 74 gear, pilot debrief, and theflightchannel are among my favorites, and I've never once sat on a plane and thought, "Yeah, i could do this"😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Pro Tip: When you're landing, don't use the stick to climb/descend, if you're off the glideslope, adjust your throttle in small increments (you will get a feel for it after enough practice), more throttle will cause you to climb and less throttle will cause you to descend... When you try to make these adjustments on the stick, pulling up will cause you to lose speed and can lead to an aerodynamic stall, pushing the nose down causes an increase in speed which can cause you to overshoot your landing, you want to adjust your speed while maintaining the optimum descent angle for your aircraft...
This is true for light aircraft, but on large airliners it doesn't really work. The aircraft has too much inertia and just doesn't respond quickly enough to changes in thrust. That's why they primarily use pitch to control the descent rate while letting the autothrottle maintain airspeed.
Hey Joe, I am 67 years old. I have know several "geniuses". This includes two world famous inventers. What I discovered, in line with Dunning - Krueger, is that the most gifted often have a delusions that they are also experts in many unrelated fields. For example, if an inventor designs advanced military aircraft why would he also expect expertise in aircraft subassemblies? Also, chemistry, botany, handy capping race horses, global warming, and plate tectonics? I suggest the most gifted are also the worst offenders of Dunning -Krueger effect. This was a good video.
yes, that's observable even in daily life with friends/mates that are very skilled and trained in various fields of study or work. the big difference I feel however is the self-confidence and lack of ability to see own mistakes. someone who's smart and accomplished in any kind of topic often kind of understands what it takes to be an actual expert and while those kind of people might initally think they are in the right they are also very quick to realize their partner in discussion has way more experience and knowledge to offer and turn down their personal pride. the least knowledgeable proclaim the loudest is an important part of the dunning-kruger-theorem if I'm not mistaken. secondly at least for some I see this "false self-confidence" in smart people as kind of a defense mechanism against Dunning-Kruger effect because if you have to little confidence in your knowledge you will start to loose voice against someone with less reasoning in certain topics
@@jjr1728the cutest dogs are the ones you own dammit, no dog is better than another (except for the dogs that are just straight evil because god damn some of them want nothing but mayhem and violence)
@@TUCOtheratt which is not what I am, yet you think you know. The level of incompetence in gvt is the same as in any other field, if anything it has more scrutining. You're textbook Dunning-Krugering, dude. Just watch the video again but listen this time.
October 1, 2007 never had given a thought to flying. My father in law gave me Microsoft flight simulator. I became obsessed with it. I studied and practiced the Cessna and my and my local airport (in the simulator). October 7, 2007 I went to my (real) airport and flew the real Cessna. Left seat, communicate with tower, taxi, take off, touch and go twice, land. And taxi back. It was so beyond awesome. It was EXACTLY like what I expected all because of the simulator. The most fascinating thing I've ever done in my life.
What is Microsoft flight simulator? Do you need a gaming computer for it, does it look like a real simulator? Im just a girl who would love to pretend to fly a plane just cos its fascinating. Is it free or is it a game tou have to purchase?is it even a game?
@@heatherwoodley8244 1. You do need a good computer for it, but you can also play it on the Xbox 2. It looks very realistic 3. It's closer to a simulator than a game, but it's very accessible to beginners 4. It's $60 (or $10 a month with the Game Pass)
I'm just an ordinary guy. No special knowledge, no education beyond the basics, but, one talent I've always had. I've always been able to do ANYTHING I could watch someone else do. This realization isn't absolute in that, even though I have extensively proved this fact to myself over decades, I'm still hesitant to jump into something. My first job at fifteen, I learned in one hour how to cook/bake everything in the restaurant without fail. I've rebuilt cars just by watching someone else. I only call a service person due to time constraints, otherwise I fix everything in my house, cars, or electronics.
In sanskrit there is a saying, "Alpavidya bhayankari", meaning "Very little knowledge is dangerous". Which is also part of the lyrics of the song Its my life by Dr. Alban :D
I’m a pilot and can assure everyone out there than almost no one would be able to land a 737 without some kind of training lol. With that being said it wouldn’t take much training to be able to land a 737. A person with a private pilots license and a atc in their ear could put a 737 on the ground safely.
Do you think some flight simulator experience would enable one to bring the plane down without killing everyone? I am having an argument with my brother. Only requirement is that there are survivors.
@@waynebimmel6784 His first landing "started a major fire." It is entirely possible to evacuate the airplane during a major fire, so there would be some survivors, you just wouldn't have everyone survive
The graph about the pilots experience level versus risk is really interesting to me in that I am a trained arborist with 20 years of experience. It's always in the top three most dangerous jobs in America. Like the pilots the guys most likely to lose their life aren't the new guys who don't know anything, those guys are proper scared. It's the guys between three and six years experience. The guys that think they've seen it all and haven't yet actually had to rescue another human being out of a tree. They haven't yet made a simple mistake that almost cost them everything. I've seen young men fall from ridiculous Heights, light themselves on fire from a power line, knock themselves out with a thousand pound log, cut their arms or their legs with chainsaws, explode transformers. The one thing they always have in common is that they're not afraid anymore and they don't need anyone else's input. After such an incident if he gets through it he will be one of the most reliable people that you could have on your crew. If he hasn't seen it yet or done it to himself it's almost assuredly going to happen. With every success without a mistake he marches closer and closer to disaster.
I don’t think I’d be anywhere near the most qualified to land the plane in a disaster scenario, but I still kind of think I could do it if nobody else wanted to. I’ve always wanted to try it. But without the part where I crash and die.
This is so much more than just about trying to land a plane. It applies to every aspect of our perception of life, especially now with social media. It also ties in nicely with your previous video about how the brain works. Quite educative and enlightening! ❤️
The whole thing about some experience being more deadly/dangerous also applies to motorcycles. Most accidents/deaths are either when people first start out, or around 1-3 years of riding under their belt. As for this video, much like you after reading/watching so much I figure I could bring one down with guidance and full autopilot, but yeah, not fully manual. Maybe a Piper Cub with guidance, but not an jet airliner, lol.
I've experienced this as a bus driver, there was a period after I passed my test and started driving on routes and I thought I knew what I was doing, three months and three (Minor) crashes later I came face to face with the Dunning-Kruger effect only months later did it finally click what I was doing wrong.
"There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-the ones we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld unintentionally summarizing the Dunning-Kruger effect.
An unknown known sounds like Socrates/Plato's idea of 'anamnesis': that we have innate knowledge that we're unaware of and learning involves uncovering what we knew all along.
Growing up skateboarding, I always thought it looked so easy when I saw others skating. It was never easy. That was my first experience with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
I've played msfs for years and I feel confident programming an ILS landing and intercepting the localizer and glide slope and everything else. What I'm skeptical of is how well I could finish the landing after the wheels touch the ground. That part seems super skills-based.
1st) you might need the proper auto brake setting 2nd) read the checklists ^^ 3rd) in such a scenario no one would expect you to taxi that plane. As an emergency landing you simply follow instructions. I'd assume they ask you to set the parking brake on the runway you've landed on, and turn of the engines and turn on the APU (+ maybe some other stuff) for safety.
The crazy thing about the Dunning-Kruger effect is that even though i know it exists, even though I see and know the results, I still can't help but feel i would do better than Joe did were i given this test. I too watch a lot of youtube videos on aviation, I watch videos from pilots who get into the details on all the things that go on during takeoff and landing, and breakdown all the instruments in the plane and their purpose, and I've learned a lot from these videos. I also have played lots of flight sim games, and still do every once in a while. I also have exactly 0 hours flying an actual plane. I'm familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect, I know that it might be completely false, but I still can't help feeling that I'd at least do better than Joe were I put through the same test, although I have no way of actually proving it. Until I actually do the test, I can't help but assume I'd do better, and there's nothing I can do to change that thinking.
@@SonoftheBread ikr! and the kicker is I actually work at a place that produces helicopters and trains pilots on their platform. I was given the chance to fly on their training simulator, which is on the level that we see in this video but for the helicopters they make. I was awful at it. I managed to land without breaking the helicopter, but the helicopter was rattling a lot because of my jerky inputs, i got blown around by the wind more than I thought I would, and bonked the tail off the top of a building on the way down, but the videos I watch, and the planes I fly in FSX are not helicopters... sooo.... >.> I've played DCS as well, but I am a bad fighter, so I didn't get into it. I like simulating commercial flights instead.
Well you probably *do* have more experience than Joe, so you'd probably do better than him. I didn't watch the whole video as I was just interested in the flying part not the philosophy, but he didn't seem to be the kind of guy that played around on simulators and watches YT flying videos. I want to try one of these sims too, there's one of these public ones nearby, might be a cool gift to myself!
I was put in a really difficult situation when I was hired as an automation programmer without having the necessary knowledge (after the owner's suggestion). In my first month the only other programmer quit, leaving me with a bunch of delayed projects and a huge mess of programs. I often found myself telling the owner that my job is really hard because at every step I had to consider what I didn't know. But this made me very aware of the fact I didn't know enough and I setup procedures for testing and QA that in the end I ended up being the best programmer the company ever had. I had no idea about this effect but with methodical thinking I was able to discover it and overcome it. Now I also know the name for it.
When I was getting my pilots license, my instructor said that we were now ready for me to start actually landing the plane. We had worked on slow flight, pattern and approaches, the flare etc. now it was time to do it! As I waited for him to pass his vast knowledge over to me, he looked at me and said “ sorry but I can teach you how to land. You will have to teach yourself”! Oh great, thanks. This was actually true. He had taught me all he could, now it was purely practice and experience. Getting that feel for the flare, judging the exact height to flare, feeling the plane settling down and loosing ground effect, and at the same time staying centered on the runway. It takes time, repetitive practice and the development of a “new sense”. It was a thrilling and rewarding process to learn to fully be able to consistently land the plane on my own. And then he said “OK you can do this. I am getting out and you are going to solo fly this plane and come back and land. Wow, oh boy. Literally do or die. I did.
From what I remember a teenage girl had to do her first solo flight and the gear malfunctioned and a recording of air-flight-controller conversation exists online.
You should do a video on the second half of DK, where people who /are/ experts in their field have a hard time understanding how little a beginner knows. It's hugely important when teaching but most people just can't seem to recall how clueless they were when they were beginning. I taught drivers ed back in the day, and it amazed me how often parents would consistently skip basic steps when teaching their kids to drive just because it was obvious to them. Simple things like how hard you press the accelerator or how far you turn the wheel on a right vs left turn. It's overwhelming to most kids, but most parents would almost always default to just saying "it's so easy" over and over. Btw, imo, hearing "it's so easy" is the number 1 indicator a teacher/instructor is unqualified.
Funny you should mention that. I was taught how to drive by my mother who drove school busses. My father straightened out the clutch and stick part of my driving. A few years after that, I told them I was going on a fraternity camping trip (in an 1981 VW Rabbit with a 5 speed and a 1600cc Diesel engine.). Gave them all the details that you're supposed to give when going on a road trip driving yourself. Not one word of advice. Halfway up Arizona Highway 87 (on my way to Christopher Creek, AZ), having passed several signs telling commercial truck drivers to downshift and getting passed by everything else, I realized that maybe fifth gear wasn't good on steep inclines. When I asked my dad why they didn't tell me, his exact words were, "We'd figured you'd would figure it out yourself." Geese, thanks Dad. I made damn sure not to make that mistake with my daughter.
There's also a phenomenon by which experts overlook basic flaws because they are so focused on exquisitely detailed knowledge. For example, discoveries of new celestial objects are often made by amateur astronomers, while the pros are more apt to be zeroed in on one particular problem they are trying to solve.
I eyerollingly smirked when you started the, "and please return your tray tables..." then threw my hands up in a huge V and shouted, "Joooeee!!!" when it turned into a Leslie Nielsen quote! When your instructor said, "we're all counting on you" earlier on I wondered if he wasn't referencing the same, now I'm (probably excessively) overjoyed 😂
I had a maiden flight with a ULM and a very well skilled pilot in the Verdon in the Alpes de Haute Provence. Although I flew RC model planes at the time, I couldn’t do what he did there. Landing was really like flying into the mountain, flaring at the last moment, on a slope of about 20 degrees. Quite sure that was a pilot with skills to go save people in the mountains. Reminds me of Alexandre de Saint Exupery. One of the pioneers. He watched how birds were landing in the mountains.
That "Killing Zone" graphic is very true in the military as well. For instance, in the Army generally, all the young gung-ho privates think they know so much and run around like chickens and often die in battle first because of it, I mean, they played COD! As they mature and realize the gravity of the overall mission, they tend to be more studied and experienced and then plan accordingly and are less likely to die. Of course, as they continue to rank up, they get further and further from the actual battlefield. Most LTCs and Colonels and up haven't seen a battlefield in years.
I feel there maybe a way to avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect. One of the attributes of critical thinking is to challenge all assumptions and biases, if you re-evaluate those assumptions and biases within the subject matter of choice your left with knowledge that is known or unknown. Having this list of knowledge that is known to you is like a shopping list, always able to pick out the knowledge you know but also understanding the knowledge you don't know. The clarity of the knowledge we know should be regularly be checked.
Turns out it’s harder than I thought. But we all got a chance to learn about unconscious overconfidence. Where else do you see the Dunning-Kruger Effect show up in the world?
Now try to do any other random specialized job in the world guided by an expert, just to "prove a point"...
everywhere 😟
Politics
Truck driving, everyone thinks they know how a truck works, and they think they're all the same. Every load, every trailer, every trip is different and you're literally just winging it with your experience every second of every day, especially with the terrible drivers in the cars being the worst drivers ever.
Everywhere, unfortunately.
I've only read a little about the Dunning-Kruger effect, but I think I have a pretty solid understanding of it
Nice
I see what you did there
😂
Hahahaha
The first rule of Dunning-Kruger club is you don’t know you’re in Dunning-Kruger club.
I AM a pilot, and I instructed in a 737 simulator for about a year and a half. The first of your actual manual landings was not a crash. I don't know why he told you that you "crushed the gear". Your rate of descent was fine at touchdown. In fact, it was even softer than the auto-land did. And the 737 is capable of REALLY planting onto the runway, which is actually a safer landing in adverse weather. I'd call that first landing a success. Though, the rest were... well... rough.
Putting this feather in my hat for the rest of my life
are you saying he's certified for Ryanair?
@@bubbleboi28 on manual, yes
@@bubbleboi28 overqualified, actually
It was a bit hard to tell, but it's possible he landed too far forward on the front gear before the back gears. I've heard the larger planes are meant to land on the rear gears, which can take a lot of punishment, unlike the front. But I have no clue what I'm talking about, so take what I'm saying with a grain of salt
Pilot here, the fact that you actually made it TO the runway in IFR is better than a lot of pilot trainees do.
I'm curious, do pilots these days generally use autopilot to land, or do they do it manually? Presumably they still have to keep in practice in case the autopilot fails?
Depending on the equipment and category of approach you can either use Autoland, or (my preference) disconnect the autopilot 200 feet or more above the ground and hand fly the last part of the approach.@@monkeymox2544
Autopilot is disabled during landing, too many variables so little time to avert if something goes wrong, as well as other things.@@monkeymox2544
Manually, although for the early approach phase, the plane flies on autopilot, you baby sit it until on final [around 1 nautical mile out (VARIES)], then you disengage the AP and hand fly the aircraft carefully to touchdown, in case of an emergency or bad weather, A CAT III verified aircraft can perform a landing via the computer (auto land), although this is not always available, and in very bad weather conditions planes will simply not be permitted to fly.@@monkeymox2544
@@monkeymox2544 Depends on the category of ILS at the runway and the type of Autoland system in the plane.
When people say "I could land the plane", you did exactly what they think they could do . No one thinks they'd have a commercial-level landing, but people think they have the possibility to make sure everyone lands without dying. You literally proved that it's possible.
Only on the new-gen plane that could land itself tho. On the other planes he set one on fire and one crashed, it just didn't show in the simulator itself.
That’s what I figured. I bet I could land it. Would it be a good landing? No of course not, the plane will probably be damaged in the millions for repair, but I would be able to walk off of it rather than be carried away in a body bag.
Literally
It seems that with more coordination it’s quite possible to land the plane. You can’t say everyone is going to “crunch” the landing gear. If he didn’t make that same 1 mistake twice it would have been a complete success.
P.s. every single large commercial aircraft has autopilot for flying and landing for at least 20 years now. I was a guest in the cockpit for a commercial flight and the pilot asked me if he should manually land the plane without autopilot so I could watch, and he did. They are pretty smooth he did it like it was nothing, perfectly, and we were laughing and joking around with the other crew in the cockpit.
@@Spunkton you're missing his point. When someone says "I could land a plane" they mean "I could put this plane on the ground without killing as many people as if it crashed uncontrolled", which the video absolutely showed. You would have caused millions in damages, but at least people wouldn't be dead. Both crashes would have resulted in damages and fires, but the emergency crews would have been standing by because ATC would know that there is an untrained civilian flying a massive plane. So most would have survived.
As a 20 year pilot I’m impressed that he could even make it to the runway especially in the weather. Keep hitting the Microsoft flight sim. It’s clearly paying off.
Isnt it amazing how much SA can be drained simply by being in the weather?! I hate being IMC.
For real man, I was expecting it to go much worse.
Im a 737 pilot
While not great, for a person with no aviation background, both tries were actually pretty good
I'm a student pilot, and yet I feel like I know absolutely nothing about what I'm doing....all of the time 😆
But yeah.... He did good considering he isn't in any actual classes.
@@RedBroski Yeah, I don't think its till you're a student pilot that you realize just how overwhelming it can be. Even simple things become hard because you're so task saturated. Good luck on the training!
As a pilot I would say that on your second attempt you would probably have saved all lives on board, despite damaging the plane. In an emergency situation I'm happy to call that a successful landing.
I agree. Couldnt have asked for a better outcome! That touchdown looks like maybe 800-900fpm+ heavy, will probably have structural dmg but all lives saved maybe minor injuries nothin too serious. I mean, untrained, first time in a full motion sim, getting instructions via radio or from the back and having to figure out what the instructions mean. The stress levels would be immense esp in a real life landing. So he did great!
If you can walk away from the landing, it's a good one. If you can use the plane again, it's a great landing. If the plane doesn't require any repairs it was a perfect landing.
Well, they used to say any landing you can walk away from...
As they say, any landing you can walk away from is a good one
I used to hear, any landing you can walk away from is good one, any you can fly the plane again…
There's a difference between a crash, and a crash with fatalities. If a good landing is one you walk away from and as far as I'm concerned you did an impressive job. Plus taking into account BOS has a huge runaway and many emergency services, if the pilots stroke out on my flight I'd definitely want you to land it.
My first time with my instructor, while he was lining up the runway he said "every landing is a crash, either controlled or uncontrolled, but any crash you walk away from is a good landing"
Landing a 737 with no flying experience:
I’m not at all confident that anyone besides myself would be smart enough and brave enough to even attempt this and actually have a good chance at success. I would 100% step up and say “Everyone please relax, I’ve got this” to the entire 737 plane full of people and see if there’s another person on board that was not a total panicky idiot, and if we’re extremely lucky there would be someone and then I would be even more confident and would ensure everyone on board that we will all be landing safely and they would be with their loved ones shortly while reassuring them again of our absolutely certain ability to get us on the ground safely. I’d give it a 99.999% chance we succeed as long as we keep coms with our real pilot on the ground and or air traffic controllers. It might not be perfectly straight, and someone still may need to come onboard to help us park, or drive us up to the gate but I know for an absolute fact that I can check my ego with pride and would for sure let that happen if needed. We would all be very happy regardless, and I would laugh at our story and my inability to drive her once on the ground about not being able to park this big old’ plane but could manage figure out how to get us all on the ground safely!
There's a quote on the videogame War Thunder that talks exactly about that. It goes as following; "The plane is on the ground and the pilot is alive, a great landing it is!"
But there are airports with runways that aren't very big. Narita (Japan) has an infamously short runway because of huge failures in acquiring land for the airport that led to decades of protests that are technically still ongoing. But there's also the fact that take off and landing are the most dangerous times. Chances are, any untrained landing is going to end in fatalities, not end with a mere crash.
@user-nf7ui7dz1z
You are completely insane.
I've encountered the term, "Dunning-Kruger Effect," countless times. I think it's totally awesome that you actually had Dunning included in your video.
There is also a positive side to the Dunning-Kruger effect, because if people really knew what was ahead of them, a lot of people wouldn't have started the journey in the first place.
Stephen King once said, "if you don't start out a little too big for your britches how do you ever hope to fill them?"
Fax!
@@nathanjasper512 Oh I misunderstood, I was starting out a little too big for my bitches.
Joe, I would like to have seen you do this with Tom Scott as your co-pilot.
Willing to try again! Let’s go Tom!
Tom Scott will only do it with the seats reversed lol
That would be very entertaining
Might be the most unreliable flight crew ever 😂😂 jk
Yessss
I feel like the hardest part is knowing how to channel into the right radio frequency to get help from the runway you are going to
Just talk into the microphone while pushing the push to talk button. Whoever is on the other line of the current frequency will help you all the way.
@@sientguyThe problem is that you might already be out of range of everyone on the frequency.
Yea, if someone asks if you know how to land a plane say you know how to operate the radio. The emergency frequency is 121.5 MHz and will always have someone lisening unless your out of range of everyone.
@@baltulielkungsgunarsmiezis9714 Even then you have UHF. Tune to different frequencies on the MCDU and callout. Stay in the lower frequencies like single digits. Kinda sucks having to spray and pray but it's better than nothing. If the plane has wifi and you can see an airports IATA code on one of the DU's you can Google their ATC's frequency.
All of this assumes you have time though. I'd assume that autopilot and autothrottle are already on in this scenario. Commercial jets have TCAS so other airliners will most likely deviate. Now smaller planes without TCAS. Someone who doesn't know anything about an airplane will probably just be scared and confused about why the plane is yelling at them to climb/descend. Assuming automatic TCAS isn't on.
@@Edss-nr6xw A smaller plain tho is easyer to fly manually. Its more responsible, big engines take longer to spin up and bigger objects take longer to slow down.
I have a bachelor degree in aviation: I became a pilot in college. This donning-krueger affect I think it's very real and without knowing it, I experienced it during my flight training. That's where good instructors come in. Because you don't know what you don't know, it's a very fine line to know when you did something well or need improvement. Flight training is all about training, training, and training some more; you build from the previous lesson and before you know it, you're proficient. Handle an emergency while you're task saturated... do that and you can be taught to fly. What he said about chain of events is so true. There's never ever any one reason why accidents happen; it's always a chain of events and we strive to stop that chain of events at any one point.
You can do this at Embry-Riddle. I was always fascinated with this degree. However, it costs a lot of money.
Swiss cheese effect, sometimes all the holes line up and you end up with a major incident.
*Dunning-Kruger
@@ihtfp69you can do this at Embry-Riddle, but be prepared to pay 2x as much as anywhere else to get the same degree and ratings.
You should re-take basic English.
The second and third attempt, while technically a crash, would probably totally survivable by most if not all passengers. That's good enough for a novice.
A good landing is one you (and everyone else on the plane) can walk away from, an excellent landing is one after which you can use the plane again.
He got on the runway which is probably better than most people
You are right, but Joe expected not to crash, and that was the point.
Joe made it to the runway with out automation in IMC conditions. That's really impressive.
Tell that to the families of the 1% passengers that died
I've been watching a lot of flight videos lately. So, how confident am I that I could land a plane? Assuming full automation and ideal conditions, close to 100%. A fully manual landing, also 100%. Granted, survival of the plane and passengers in that situation would probably be around 0%, but I could definitely get the plane out of the sky and onto the ground.
If you squint real hard it's a landing
yeah, most people tend to be quite adept at this Lithobraking manoeuvre, which is also true with cars after a few drinks
Had us in the first half Ngl😂
Valid! Specific parameters such as: “survival of all on board” and “plane is still capable of flying afterward” really do make all the difference here.
Any landing you can walk away from is a good one.
This reminds me of when I was learning to drive. From what others have told me it seems that this is a pretty universal experience, but when I started learning to drive I was cautious because I knew that I didn’t know much. But by the time I went through the process of having a permit, taking the tests, and getting my required hours of experience I was confident in my abilities. So I wasn’t all that cautious after I got my license. And within the first year, like many others, I got into an accident. The accident really showed me just how inexperienced I was and it made me much more cautious as a driver and I think I’m a much better driver because of it.
I wish everyone has the same self awareness and ability to self-reflect like you here. World will be a utopia.
@@Kunyitthecatto as if all of the world's problems are caused by lack of individual self reflection.
Unicorns would decend from the heavens to facilitate efficient trade and end starvation and suffering all around the world! And there would be no need for silly things like resources, or armies or borders because we'd all be super self reflective
When I was first learning to drive (in the very first driving lesson, when I had never driven before) my driving instructor showed me how to put the car in reverse and how to change gears and then he was just like: "Ok, now drive the car onto this 60km/h road". I definitely did not feel confident that I knew what I was doing.
I fell asleep at the will 2 years after I got my license
I recommend driving to a place you haven't been before/are unfamiliar with once and a while if you get too cocky. I'm terrible at directions and suddenly forget how to read signs from being panicky. Muscle memory controls a lot more than people think and is probably why it's even possible to blank out while driving in the first place.
Now that I'm aware of the Dunning-Kruger effect, I think I have what it takes to land the plane
The dunning kruger effect strikes again!
Give me a 5 minute rundown. I'm landing that plane like a pro!
Expert pilots are just mad that gaming nerds could do what they do with a couple hours of flight sim😂😂😂
@@Chloe-dc3bm I got the chance to take off, fly, and land all on my “own” in a real plane with zero training whatsoever😅, and I found out that even flying straight is WAY more complicated than I expected, and I had played a lot of simulators. Now honestly landing was easier somehow, but hella scary, I felt like I was at a 45° angle
If I had air traffic control talking to me, I could definitely land the plans
This is 100% the case in survival scenarios as well. It's well documented that since the new survival shows have become more and more popular (think Survivorman, Survivor, Man vs Wild) more and more people incorrectly assume they can survive in the wilderness and end up getting lost in a large forest requiring rescue.
Or we live in the modern world and it’s more accurately reported
@@Skim_beeble7125 - Prior to the modern era more people probably could survive in the wilderness, as far more people had to out of necessity.
Beyond those shows, in my experience most people who hunt/fish/grow crops overestimate their ability to survive after a cataclysmic disaster/event.
And while they would likely survive better than someone without those skills, they probably wouldn't do as well as they initially thought.
Or people thinking they can be an effective President of the United States or CEO because they've seen other people do it, but wind up being a disaster
@@kingetzel2755 How many cataclysms have you experienced lol
“An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.”
Niels Bohr
I love this quote, i always put it in the end of all my classes. Both from the angle of how important mistakes and exposure/experience is to building knowledge and also to dispel the myth that the best professional never had a mistake or is beyond failing.
I think a lot of what has been learned had huge prices, how many first aviators died? But being able to learn from their mistakes without paying the same price is what makes the right education a miracle.
Forming pilots, surgeons, nuclear physicists without deaths is a miracle.
Simple rule: Beginners make beginner's mistakes, experts make expert's mistakes!
According the Bohr, I would be an expert at marriage!
I was considered an expert by others in my industry and was asked to train new staff.
It used to make me angry as hell.
So many things that I was never taught but had to learn by trial and error and they would have me train others.
Another quote I like along these lines is an amateur practices until they get it right and professionals practice until they can’t get it wrong.
In regards to the statistics about partially experienced pilots being more deadly than new pilots…I’ve been a carpenter for 25 years now and when I was just starting out the guy I worked for made a comment about how this same phenomenon manifests itself in my profession. After I had been framing houses for about six months I was feeling like I finally understood how (when I started I was completely inexperienced with building things or even using tools) a house is built, and my confidence led me to take on a side job building a deck for my cousin. When I told my boss he replied, “Keep in mind you know just enough to be dangerous.” What he was saying was that I think I can build a house on my own, but there’s still so much I have to learn that if I do attempt it on my own I will likely make mistakes that I’m not even aware of, and could build something that isn’t structurally sound, which could be very dangerous to the homeowner if a structural failure occurred. Now, 25 years later as a very experienced contractor I realize how little I knew, but how confident I was in my abilities.
The killing zone typically happens between 50-300 hours of flight time.
My dad goes by "measure 3 times, THEN saw"
When you realise you can have the Dunning-Kruger effect in relation to knowledge about the Dunning-Kruger effect..
You’re blowing my mind, Orange!!
That is so meta.
Ironically, this is what I was thinking when the discoverer himself is talking about it..
people that question themselves usually do not suffer from the dunning kruger effect. Introspection is like the best way to prevent it
@@MCRuCr Or maybe that's what one would think if they don't know enough about it...
I am a pilot. I can tell you that flying IS mentally exhausting.
On the subject of "Dunning-Kruger", long before I had even heard of the study, I would talk of the five stages of competence:
Unconsciously Incompetent - You don't know what you don't know. You have absolutely no idea what you must learn.
Consciously Incompetent - You now have some idea of the enormity of the task before you but you still don't know how to do it.
Consciously Competent - You can now do it. However, you must think about it in order to be able to do it. You cannot do it automatically.
Unconsciously Competent - Now you can do it without thinking about it. You can walk AND chew gum.
This, often inevitably, leads to: Unconsciously Incompetent - You are not paying attention to what you are doing. You have over-estimated your ability and have grown complacent. ("The Killing Zone").
The trick is to remain somewhere between Step 3 and Step 4. Allow your automatic responses to do the thing (be "pilot flying") whilst your conscious mind pays attention to your performance (being "Pilot Monitoring").
yep, hence I love checklists and their procedures. They actually give you a reason to go through every step without being fully "automated" on doing them. Although I'm pretty sure many airmen had the situation where they said check although it wasn't, also by habits after doing a known checklist for the umpteens time. ^^
@@BruceCarbonLakeriver - Likewise. I am a great believer in the efficacy of checklists.
Quite often, for some things, i don't even use written checklists. I use "visual" checklists.
For example, I am preparing to leave the house to travel. Rather than write up a checklist. I put all the things I need to take in one place so that I know that I have everything when that area is clear. A rather simplistic example but I think it illustrates the kind of thing that I mean.
@@halfrhovsquared Me too! And I feel like a nerd about this. But guess who didn't have forgotten something? Yep, me :)
Checklists FTW! :)
Well put! 👌🏽👌🏽
I used to race motocross and we would talk about the most dangerous racers. We agreed that beginners were somewhat dangerous, especially in the first turn. However, it was the newly ranked novices (one class up from beginners) who were the most dangerous.
They start to believe they have it all figured out and push beyond their capabilities and frequently cause the worst accidents.
Expert class was the safest, and fastest class. Everyone knows what they are doing, and can reliably predict what others will do.
As a pilot, it is quite flattering to hear that you are so fascinated with our work. In the same way, I am fascinated with scientific topics in which you are the professional, haha. Landing is typically the most delicate and often stressful part of flying, and you actually did better than I was expecting. Great video!
Landing is definitely the most stressful. Esp. if the ILS system is down or the airfield doesn't have one. Take off is not much of an issue and once in the air at altitude there's not much to be worried about.
@@brucesmith5426 Interestingly in a glider it is the opposite. Landing is less stressfull than taking off. There are way more things that can go wrong at landing than at taking off.
@@haltux I couldn't tell you about a glider. In a true glider you could be correct.It could be as most don't have any type of thrust involved for T/O. But any landing is just a controlled crash.
a
You know what is scary? You dont recognize how valuable your knowledge and ability is and you need others to remind you. This is not a grey hound bus even though because of the can of tuna with wings feeling ppl get from the cramped seating. For reference look at how much a bus driver makes compared to a pilot and if you still cant figure out your value after that you should probably stop piloting especially with passengers. You want to have a pity party and fly into a mountain, do it alone please, thanks.
0:45 I'm an avionics technician. I've dabbled in Microsoft Flight Simulator and know a decent amount about how planes work. I can't land one. But I know that COM1 or COM2 is probably already set to the nearest ATC tower, look for the Push-To-Talk button on the CCD, press it and ask them to guide me through it. The good thing is autopilot will help a lot. The bad news is you still have to get the jet in the right configuration for approach, descent and landing. You also have to line up with the runway correctly. I've seen crosswinds nearly make senior pilots cause a tail strike or wing strike. If there's a crosswind you're boned.
I have always said, I can guarantee you that while having never flown an aircraft bigger than a suitcase, I can land a plane. I make no promises about the number of casualties however, even a crash landing is a landing and I never promised anyone would survive, lol. That being said. I think a decent number of people, if they can keep calm, could land a plane with at least one of the passengers surviving. In a modern plane even with adverse weather, probably some people will survive which is still better than none.
@@2009dudeman Most people don't know this but planes are made of aluminum. It's light weight and usually hundredths of an inch thick.
A scratch big enough to catch your finger on the skin of the aircraft (the green under panels, it's green because it's bare aluminum with primer on it) is required to be depth tested to see if it's within limits. Happened where I work recently. Someone scratched the skin and NDT had to come out with an ultrasonic test set to determine the thickness of the skin in that spot. It was within limits (thankfully) but people who don't understand how fragile the fuselage skin is wouldn't understand why such a tiny scratch is cause for major concern.
Aluminum is delicate. Over time as the fuselage expands and contracts due to extreme temperatures at higher altitudes and cabin pressurization that tiny scratch will become a crack in a relatively short amount of time. Eventually it will lead to rapid depressurization. Aluminum is malleable and flexes well. That's also its weakness.
For reference, thicker aluminum foil is around 0.072 inches thick. A lot of planes have skin thicknesses around 0.125 inches. Not even an entire one-hundredth of an inch thicker.
I'm not an engineer by any means. But that alone doesn't give me much hope for the odds of a decently hard landing going well. Because I *seriously* doubt with the yoke in the hands of a completely inexperienced person they will be able to keep the jets landing gear parallel with the runway. _Especially_ if there's a crosswind. A tail strike would be devastating. A wing strike would be bad too. All in all, in my experience, engineers focus their effort on the computer systems and flight surfaces on board to mitigate the need for a hard landing... in the hands of an experienced pilot. We're talking about someone who potentially hasn't even played microsoft flight simulator taking a stab at it.
My money is on the decimating themselves and anything nearby.
@@Edss-nr6xw none of that is relevant to the fact that having even a completely unaware person in the cockpit with ATC provides a higher chance of survival for people on the plane, than lacking the cockpit empty in case of pilot incapacitation, which has a result of 100% fatalities.
Cool that you are in the industry, but having a person that's alive and can follow an order from someone, on it's own, provides a higher chance of survival than a person that's incapacitated and can't follow orders.
We saw it here where listening to the actual pilot tell you how to program the plane resulted in a rather 'normal ' landing. Adverse weather just increases the risk of critical damage, it doesn't make auto pilot non-functional. Besides, chances are the pilots are incapacitated long before diversion to better weather isn't possible, at which point you can be talked through the process.
I was also an airframe mech. The thing is anyone simple-minded like me can learn to land on their first flight in the sim even without calm winds. You can practically make the airliners autoland with some simple guidance. In real life, you would probably break the landing gear to some extent. He was in a sim, so I have no idea what was really holding him back besides not being a pragmatic guy maybe. Plenty of people have landed planes in real life emergencies where the pilot was incapacitated. It's not easy, but these people didn't even slide off the runway. Also, they would guide you to an airport without a crosswind or anything.
From what i hear, you landed it better than most Ryan Air pilots
LoL 😂yeah I can believe that!
Why are you degrading his ability like that? *most*? :D
Ryanair, who belly flop every landing from at least 50ft ...yup
😂😂
After a couple of Ryan air flights I thought “this cannot be normal” and “are they landing like this on purpose?”
Go figure they do, they are trained to land with a faster approach to reduce the chances of having to abort the landing, no matter the weather or wind situation. They argue is safer but mostly is to reduce the chances of delays and costs caused by aborted landings.
I remember reading that the Dunning-Kreuger effect was strongest for highly competent experts (PhDs, the worlds bests surgeons, etc) when dealing with fields other than their specialty.
Wow! That's interesting. Especially when you dig deep knowledge in your field, you should realize how much respect you have to give into other fields..
That's really surprising. The PhDs I know essentially all suffer from imposter syndrome, they're far from being overconfident even in their own fields.
I can see older, successful, established Phds being the opposite though.
@@arthanor9631 yeah. I think serious doctors are much more humble considering the amount of complexity they are dealing with..
I talked with the world-famous Andreas Gruentzig, M.D. (Heidelberg) just days before he flew his Beechcraft into the ground. I was told that he was sure his altimeter was wrong, though I have no direct knowledge of that.
I believe it's called ultracrepidarianism
Currently at an Aviation camp where I get to fly planes, with an instructor of course, this video can not have been posted at a more perfect time!🤣
Good luck with your training
Good luck!
I went to one when I was in high school. The flight part was so fun. I was too nervous to land. I will never forget that flight. Also it was a hot day and when we were taxiing out and a tar patch stuck to one of the tires.
Any reccomendations??? I want my PPL for the fun of flighting
@Don't Read My Profile Photo dude....why??? Too many people do this and it's totally pointless and more of an annoyance than anything. You aren't actually joining a conversation, you are interrupting one to basically say "look at me!" and what exactly do you gain from doing this?? You could do some really cool stuff with your UA-cam but you chose to do this "don't read" stuff. Why?? What is the end result you are expecting from doing this??
8:55 This is where I had wished Leslie Nielsen came into the cockpit to say, "Good luck, we're all counting on you." LOL
Update: HA!! I can't stop laughing. You ended the video perfectly with the best "Airplane" quote! LOVE IT!!
I love that, essentially, at 2:52 Dunning is telling us most people who think they know what the D-K effect is, display themselves the effect: “[it’s] an*entire family* of effects, but the one that everybody knows is […]”. Touché, Dr. Dunning!
I remember when my dad got our first flight simulator. He had (short-lived) asperations of learning how to fly, so he bought some gear to make the practices more realistic. Like I said, he gave up pretty quickly, but I loved the simulator and played for years. The one frustration I had was that, unlike my dad, I couldn't seem to land any of the planes. I started to feel better when I met someone with the same problem-my uncle, a former air force pilot who's been flying 737s since I was an infant. He was a co-captain when he realized that he couldn't land planes on Microsoft Flight Simulator, so part of his job was literally to handle the landing of the plane he couldn't land in the simulator. That made me feel a little better lol
For some reason I read that as "who's been flying 737s since *HE* was an infant." 😂
I worked with a field service technician that had previously worked on flight simulators. He said a pilot took him up in a small plane. When they were cruising the pilot asked if he wanted to fly it. He said he didn't know how. The pilot said he had experience with flight simulators. So my friend took over and made level and going the right direction. Then the plane starting climbing so my friend adjusted the flaps and leveled it off again. Then it started diving and he again go it to right altitude and level. Then he realized the pilot was laughing his head off. The pilot was a big guy and was sitting at the center of gravity and leaning forward and backwards. The pilot said that flight simulators don't simulate everything.
It's about the feel
@@stephenolan5539😂
I'm a pilot myself .First of all great content . For some clarification . Being a pilot isn't about just handling the controls , it's about doing and knowing much more things . Some of which are knowing how the weather behaves , emergency procedures , laws in the air ,aircrafts systems etc...besides the landing techniques differ between weather conditions . Watching many documenteries about the human body for fun does not give anyone 1 percent of the knowledge of a real doctor . Again great content , keep it up !
To say it more simply, as a pilot you need to be a manager and have a vast amount of knowledge and skills that you can instantly recall to make the right decisions that will bring the aircraft safely back to the ground.
@@MrCoffis Nicely briefed .
Have you heard of the space comma? It’s usually not a sign of competence in any field.
(Spoiler: the right way to write it would be comma space)
@@kellydalstok8900 Thanks for the info and I'll make sure to remember that before my next flight. Maybe knowimg that can help me develop my skills in training.
@@MrCoffis flying safely is also about gaining sufficient experience of what certain g forces feel like on the body and being aware of optical and other physiological illusions
That “Airplane” reference was absolutely necessary, thanks! 😂
This was a great example of the Dunning-Kruger(sp?) effect.
As I heard so often back in the 70’s, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.
Even worse, the simulation is an ideal scenario. Clear skies, good weather, no turbulence, no other planes, no worries about if you can land and where, no screaming passengers, along with the fact that you know it isn’t real so you aren’t as freaked out and stressed as you would be.
Well, you don't have to worry too much about other planes. ATC would be vectoring the other planes away from the emergency landing that you're making, because you're going to crash and there will be a fire.
The only accurate part is "no streaming passengers". Everything else has been in MS FS since at least 2004.
Yeah, in an actual crisis, Gilded Bear is correct. The MOMENT you've announced the in air emergency, even while ATC is telling you how to switch the transponder to emergency frequency, other controllers are clearing the sky as far and wide as they can possibly make it for you... You'll pretty much have the whole of the airspace to yourself.
Hm, wasn't he in IMC in the last attempt?
you remind me of my dad every time I think I accomplished something
Because I've watched this video on the Dunning-Kruger effect, I'm 100% confident I know everything about it and I'm now a qualified expert on knowing what I don't know.
After reading your comment I’m quite confident in my ability to land a commercial airliner.
It's the Dumming-Kreuger effect you maroon.
I'm an archaeologist, and each time we do activities in which we interact with visitors, I know I'm bound to get that one person who's going to know everything better than me because they watched a documentary. And oh boy that particular person will let you know that they possess The Knowledge.
Actually, thats just not true....historically speaking novices are actually more likely to complete a task with more success than a relevant expert....I saw a documentary about this.
Yep, you just proved the point.
Same is true for vegans, interestingly enough.
@@wiredforstereo The number of people who bash vegans versus the numbers of vegans who actually behave the way they're accused of, it's like 100-to-1. And I'd take a proselytizing vegan over a hateful meat-eater any day. Keep burning the planet, my friend.
Well the question is: How do you become an expert? By reading, and watching, and gaining experience from other experts. Takes a significant amount of time, but at some level of study, you become an expert yourself. And at that point, you yourself contribute to the knowledge base.
"The knowledge you need to come to the right decision is exactly the same knowledge that you need to decide whether or not the right decision has been made."
"If you lack the first, then you lack the knowledge needed for the second assessment."
This blew my mind. Never forgetting this quote I think.
This "killing zone" curve is exactly the same as for motorcycles.
And probably the same for everything else that has a "kill zone", I'll bet.
Familiarity breeds contempt - until it's bred out of you by ohgodohgodwe'reallgonnadie.
Still, I am convinced that people who need to acquire a domain skill on a routine basis (e.g., software developers) have a slightly higher tolerance to the DK effect - by pattern recognition if nothing else.
That is to say: by the fifth or seven time that you went "how hard can this be?" and then followed up with "oh god this is hard", if you are tempted to go "how hard can this be?" again you will probably get that feeling of foreboding that goes "oh wait, I've seen this movie, I think I know how it ends". Spoiler warning: it never ends well.
The usual result is that, instead of underestimating te required effort by two orders of magnitude, you might only underestimate by one. Ain't that great?
Insert AI joke here.
@@o0alessandro0o Somthing that takes skill to keep you alive needs to respected at All times.
Ego = Accidents .
In most cases that iv observed at least.
@@damianbigelow9511 That's... True, objectively speaking. I'm not sure it's entirely germane to my original point, however.
@@o0alessandro0o no not at all realy but I agree with you.
Iv seen this myself when I 1st acquire my motorcycle license.
The people that came with no experience are all still alive that I know of.
But out of the 5 people that came in with "claimed experience" 2 of them were killed the 1st year on the rd legally and 1 a couple years later. All 3 at excessive speeds on a road that couldn't possibly support high speeds.
Their egos litraly killed them..
As someone who just recently completed the motorcycle training course, acquired my license and began riding, I remind myself of this before every ride to bring me back to reality so I try not to exceed my current skills.
I'm so glad you covered this. As a pilot I actually get people who come up to me on occasion telling me that they could do my job as well as I can (maybe not verbatum, but it's what they imply). Whenever I ask about their training or qualifications, they don't give me anything substantial. Not trying to pat myself on the back, but I know more about planes and flying them than the average joe with no real training/experience. But I know very little about a bunch of other topics as well. I can't tell you how to install or fix an HVAC unit, or electrical wiring. Just trust the experts in their fields. We know a lot that you don't about certain subjects.
I can imagine those gamers into sim games thinking, "how much that flight sim setup cost?"
Don't call me out like this
Literally in the $millions.
As a sim racer and aviation nerd, i would love to get the chance to crash in one of these beautifull machines, i used to play alot of flight sim as a kid
@@Pilsnor - There are ways that you can do that. Expect to pay $200-500 an hour for that privilege.
@@deanfowlkes that does actualy not sound too bad to be honest 😅
The idea that the video and vibrations of the simulator don’t show when you crash is absolutely wildly pathetic. It’s such an obvious and basic requirement for this to even be vaguely realistic.
In my field (surgery) we say that there are two “peaks” of mistakes in the practice, from the “young” surgeon (based on ignorance/inexperiece) and from the “older” surgeon (based on overconfidence).
You gotta keep a very high degree of self confidence to cut people open, but its also very healthy to have a certain dose of fear/doubt to not cut your own fingers off 😂
Or forget an instrument in the patient.
As a lawyer who has a lot of cases revolving around medical malpractice (on both sides, so I sometimes represent the suing patient and sometimes defend the accused doctor/hospital), I can 100 % confirm this. The vast majority of cases we have are either surgeons who have less than 5 years or more than 30 years of experience.
“Hey what’s this thing?” *pokes with scalpel*
Winnipeg had a pediatric cardiac surgeon retire. His replacement was confident and attempted surgeries on infants that might not have been advisable. Before long the nurses refused to work with him in OR.
I'll be quite honest, I was impressed with his ability to single pilot hand fly an ILS in IMC conditions in a 737. Bravo.
My wife was a flight attendant. We traveled a lot, and it was a running joke that maybe THIS would finally be the flight where I might be needed to be the emergency volunteer (with no flight training) to land the plane safely. Of course, this is really the stuff of movies, like Airport 75 and Airplane. But it's an effective way to illustrate DK. Thanks!
It's happened quite a lot in real life though. Just recently down in Miami a passenger had to land when the pilot had a heart attack and I'm pretty sure she didn't have any experience.
Odds are someone in the crowd actually is a pilot
@@crispy9175 On small planes. It can't happen on a big airliner since 9/11 because a passenger will not get into the cockpit.
@@hellterminator that's assuming both pilots and all flight attendants are incapacitated at the same time. But yes, it's definitely not as likely to happen on a big commercial jet.
I've flown solo, but I know just looking at the bank of instruments in an air liner that I'd be lost.
This video perfectly demonstrates the importance of Crew Renource Management and the priority structure of Aviate-Navigate-Communicate. The pilot flying needs to focus on keeping the aircraft in the air. The other pilot needs to focus on navigating, reading checklists, and communicating with air traffic control. It's pretty crazy to juggle all of those tasks by yourself, let alone without any real piloting experience.
This effect was pretty obvious to me when I switched operating systems from Windows to Linux. Now I had watched a fair share of videos about all sorts of different things and how to set stuff up, but when I had the first issues I was completely at a loss for a solution in that moment. Some things took a lot more time and getting familiar with before I was able to actually execute them well, things like customization options which I thought were super easy turned out to be FAR above my skill level yet. But through pushing across that hill I now slowly start to actually be able to understand what I actually can and cannot do with my system. This was a very nice demonstration for me on how I vastly overestimated my skill set, especially since I always considered myself to be a bit of a tech-savy.
Google is your friend. Literally 80% of my ability to code and troubleshoot boils down to being good at finding info on forums.
I use Linux without a GUI for my job and for research. But I know that I can mess things up that would take so long to repair that I keep my data separate from the OS/docker, load the data that I want to the OS file system, manipulate it there, and then manually backup data after analysis. That way I can't accidently corrupt my data, and when things go wrong I just use a new image/docker/fresh install.
I want to eventually use linux with a GUI as my day to day OS, but I remember how lost and overwhelmed I get when certain tools I need have compatibility issues, and how many different ways there are of setting different settings, that I know that I eventually would be able to get over major hills.
In this case, even after you become an expert, a lot of it will actually seem quite simple, and you will wonder why you felt so intimidated before, because it wasn't really that it was hard, it was just unfamiliar.
Well i did a ton of stuff right away when i got it
@@eroraf8637 yeah, especially since a lot of platforms / frameworks seem to not understand the importance of having docs other than very terrible docs made directly from their javadocs annotations
just knowing about linux apart from "haha penguin OS" is probably enough to consider yourself at least more tech-savvy than the average
This guy, a non pilot, just executed a hand-flown ILS to minimums, and he managed to get to the runway. That's kind of impressive ngl.
Wouldn't call it on the glideslope per se but still impressive lol
I get what you mean but it’s not impressive because he just showed anyone can do it
@@Industry-insider no, defintely not anyone.. Put someone in that seat with NO knowledge of planes at all and look how it goes
@@baadlyrics8705 Agreed. A flight simmer does know more than someone who knows nothing about aviation, but I never for a moment thought that one of us could fly and land a 737 without ripping the plane apart and killing everyone or very nearly everyone aboard.
Full autopilot ILS landing, sure but not manually.
@@mikoto7693 that's a gross exaggeration.
when i was a young kid at some random sports & 'remote control crafts' store at some random place with my random uncle i once stumbled upon a legit simuator setup for flight sims.
i spent the next hour trying to just bloody land.
my uncle wanted to leave after an hour but APPERANTLY he was so amazed i was silent and focussed that he let me be.
took me over 2 hours of repeated attempts to finally make it to 3 safe landings in a row.
Ever since i've never ever believed i could land a real jet (without serious) training.
So the quote from Socrates: "I know that I do not know." is more current than ever.
Thanks for the video. Well made. It was fun, and I do appreciate the interview with Mr. Dunning.
PS: (SCNR) It seems many people with a little knowledge "in the death zone", who have an outrageously huge self assurance like to go to politics... And too many tend to believe them as these guys radiate confidence.
I used to watch videos like that and in depth explanations of how all the systems of an aircraft work. Eventually, I started taking flight lessons and flying real planes, and I realized that, while those videos helped me a lot, there is a huge difference between learning about flying a plane and actually doing it.
Exactly what I thought about learning to drive using the simulator vs actually driving on the road
Flight attendant: "Does anybody know how to land this plane?"
Me: "Once!"
One way or another, sooner or later, if I were seated at the yoke the plane would make contact with terrain or water.
That's all it takes,You're hired!
The apprehension in Dr. Dunning's voice when he says "Uhhhh, interesting--don't tell Elon Musk" was priceless.
Wait, when was that?
@@FelipeKana1 18:45
So What would Elon Musk do with that information?
What was he talking about? Was he referring to his own ignorance about the knowledge of Musk’s knowledge?
One of the benefits of a PhD is that you have to teach complete newbies in your field, and neophytes, and undergrads majoring in your field. PhDs can speak to and explain at many levels. It is an incidental part of the degree process.
Musk has spent the better part of two decades understanding “rocket science” and has demonstrated the ability to explain what is going on to complete idiots.
I'm also curious what he was referring to, and have little clue. My best guess is that he's referring to the fact that Elon has defended the name "autopilot" in Tesla's cars for their ADAS as an imperfect system, and that Dr. Dunning has something to say about that since this autopilot apparently is pretty powerful/reliable, given some location information. But maybe it's related to Dragon/Starship landings? Or something else?
Love all of your videos, but really liked this one, Shirley!
Surely you can’t be serious
“Knowing how much you don't know gives life a purpose.” Great quote, Joe 👍🏻
I have to object to "technically, I crashed" after the second landing. You may have damaged the plane and started a fire, but you were in the air, and now you're not, and you're still alive, and that means that you, sir, have just landed. It might not have been pretty, and it may *also* be accurate to say you crashed, but if I'm the proverbial passenger asked to land the plane, my take is simple: any landing that everyone walks away from is a good landing, period.
i saw tons of the dunning-kreuger effect in art school lol its amazing to me to see how confident an artist can get with a few successful projects under their belt. I, myself might be smack dab in the middle of this effect but being self aware about your abilities can definitely help you check your ego.
I do electronics since 4 and I'm always confident I could make a particular circuit irl from my head. But everytime I try I feel absolutely the most idiot person in this planet.
I wish there was a way to get more good feedback on my 3D art. Although I've learned a lot and can do pretty well in some areas, there is still so SO much I do not know especially in fundamentals like anatomy that I really really would like to learn more of, but I usually do not get much good feedback at all when I ask online.
Well we’ve seen what happens when we turn away some people from art school
@@What_was_wrong_w_jst_our_names based
This has to be one of the best videos I have watched on UA-cam.
I now know, that I actually don't know anything.
So I just quit my job for everyone's safety.
But seriously. As every year passes and I gain more knowledge in my profession, I lose more and more confidence in my ability to do the job, I've done for 10 years.
I've played flight sims since I was a little kid, I bought some commercial simulator time for my 30th birthday I didn't crash it a single time and could even do a ILS approach. It was really fun and I plan on doing it again for my 40th. The hardest part really is getting used to the coordination required for using rudder, throttle, and the yoke at the same time while monitoring your speed it's very different than playing a sim on your computer
You should consider pursuing a lisence :)
As a person who have played racing games a bit and now learning to drive in real life on mechanics, I felt the power of Dunning-Kruger effect
Depending on how you've played them, the gap between your knowledge and reality may vary a lot. Also depends on what you mean by learning to drive. Is it common driving like getting your driver's licence, or are you talking about race-driving?
@@stryker1797and in addition, what game, and the experience and lesson from playing the game, since Mario Kart is also called a racing game alongside games like Forza, Need For Speed, GRID and such.
I'd prefer not talk about Forza Horizon.
I'm a 17 year old aviation enthusiast. I love planes, and I fly intercontinental flights on Microsoft FSX and FS20, I'd love to try and take off and land a plane in a real simulation. This video was really fun to watch ❤
Real simulation.... Oxymoron.
@@Mephilis78lol
@@Mephilis78but also an accurate statement.
@@Mephilis78there’s a significant difference between an FAA certified simulator and a desktop pc flight sim
Loved your analysis from the practical data. I myself have flown Cessna and i know that flying a sim and the real deal is way way different.
Our virtual worlds have exposed us to more and more to this affect and the need to fit socially actually cause most of us to - fake it, till we make it.
Cheers!!!
Oh god, I love that pilot. "We're all counting on you." If only he said it multiple times in the video. :P
I’m glad someone else caught it lol
He would never say that IRL though, this would be a very stupid thing to say, since it would put unnecessary stress on the non-pilot pilot.
All I could think about was Airplane - only other thing missing was the profuse sweating 😅
@@SentientSingularity 17:56 This and the "we are all counting on you" made me so happy. Airplane is a classic. And the owe so familiar memes... 😂
@@paulaneilson5110 And the autopilot did not inflate. Sad!
I'm an aerospace structural analysis engineer with over 10 years of experience.
I think I gained a lot of confidence when I realized there is no way in hell I know everything, ask dumb questions (even when I feel like I'm expected to know it), and have other people look at my work.
This is a great subject. I am fairly proficient in flying helicopters in Sims but after trying in real life I wasn't prepared for how different the two are. I knew it would be difficult but I didn't realize how much. One thing most sums don't prepare you for us for are the feelings of positive and negative gs and their effect on flight and the lack of feedback through the controls. Some force feedback controllers could give you a slight idea but not like real life. Lastly I wasn't prepared for turblance and what effect it has on helicopters in real life. I would be cruising along at 1100 ft and traveling 70 knts and the whole. Helicopter would jump up and sideways. This is a feeling that no home simulator can replicate to my knowledge.
I fly RC helicopters and let two of my friends try them, one of whom is a helicopter pilot. Both rolled the aircraft almost instantly and then insisted "but I didn't push the stick that way!"
A cousin of mine who's a fixed-wing pilot was able to briefly hover my heli, set it back down, and then handed the radio back and said "yeah that's *really* hard, thanks for letting me try!"
@@stickyfox I was just thinking about RC helicopters. I used to fly one with a 40 inch rotor with a glow fuel engine. That thing was a b@#tch to learn to fly! Aint nooo way I would let someone "just try it." You're basically letting them crash your stuff.
@@lovetofly32 I know it was dumb... but it was a Blade CP with cheap parts and I'd crashed it so many times I could rebuild it in minutes....
Plus, the very first time I tried to hover it like the videos, with the ping-pong balls and everything, it just rolled right over and broke without even leaving the ground and it was kinda my first impression too, "but I didn't even push the stick that way!"
@@stickyfox Flying RC helicopters takes a lot of training and muscle memory because you have to predict what the heli will do before it does it, if you act on reaction only you crash ...
I done fine my first try on a sim.. only broke one wing clean off and blew out every tire.. lol.
never stop learning in your field(s) is how you avoid D-K... and stay in them..
"Is there anyone here who knows how to land a plane?!"
Raises hand
"You do??"
"I mean... I've played flight sims before."
"Sir, please put your hand down."
"okay."
simmer > person that really doesn't know what to do
Ehhh, you'd be surprised just how in depth some of us go and how much we know. In fact someone with 500 hours of time flying their fake 737 would have a far better chance at landing than the 150 hour C152 pilot.
I've seen videos where they do this kind of comparison and you can tell the 152 pilot is in WAY over his head and he knows it.
@@Sovek86 true, id like to see this video with someone actually deep into a sim 747. I bet hed pull it off very well
Someone with sim experience would be much better than someone with 0 idea of how to fly an aircraft. However I think the flight attendants could do a better job than 99 percent of people so unless you are a pilot or at least an aerospace engineer, you should keep your hand down unless you are literally the only person still physically able to try.
@Joseph flight attendants receive emergency training and the know the procedures to follow when the pilots are incapacitated, they should in theory remain calm in case of an emergency which is very important. If my memory serves me correctly they have assisted pilots in certain emergencies of a similar nature before, let me go dig that up.
As the Darkest Dungeon narrator would say: "Remind yourself that overconfidence is a slow and insidious killer."
I hope this dude realizes (based off the videos he makes and the views), he definitely has the skill set and available funds to become a pilot.
Give me that kitty
I love aviation channels. 74 gear, pilot debrief, and theflightchannel are among my favorites, and I've never once sat on a plane and thought, "Yeah, i could do this"😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Pro Tip: When you're landing, don't use the stick to climb/descend, if you're off the glideslope, adjust your throttle in small increments (you will get a feel for it after enough practice), more throttle will cause you to climb and less throttle will cause you to descend...
When you try to make these adjustments on the stick, pulling up will cause you to lose speed and can lead to an aerodynamic stall, pushing the nose down causes an increase in speed which can cause you to overshoot your landing, you want to adjust your speed while maintaining the optimum descent angle for your aircraft...
This is how I learned about that: If you want to go up, pull the yoke, if you want to descent, pull the yoke further. 😂
Me who already knows that 😂😂😂😂😂
Pitch for airspeed, power for altitude. Could never forget it 😂
This is true for light aircraft, but on large airliners it doesn't really work. The aircraft has too much inertia and just doesn't respond quickly enough to changes in thrust. That's why they primarily use pitch to control the descent rate while letting the autothrottle maintain airspeed.
Doesn’t work in airliners.
Hey Joe, I am 67 years old. I have know several "geniuses". This includes two world famous inventers. What I discovered, in line with Dunning - Krueger, is that the most gifted often have a delusions that they are also experts in many unrelated fields. For example, if an inventor designs advanced military aircraft why would he also expect expertise in aircraft subassemblies? Also, chemistry, botany, handy capping race horses, global warming, and plate tectonics? I suggest the most gifted are also the worst offenders of Dunning -Krueger effect. This was a good video.
yes, that's observable even in daily life with friends/mates that are very skilled and trained in various fields of study or work. the big difference I feel however is the self-confidence and lack of ability to see own mistakes. someone who's smart and accomplished in any kind of topic often kind of understands what it takes to be an actual expert and while those kind of people might initally think they are in the right they are also very quick to realize their partner in discussion has way more experience and knowledge to offer and turn down their personal pride. the least knowledgeable proclaim the loudest is an important part of the dunning-kruger-theorem if I'm not mistaken.
secondly at least for some I see this "false self-confidence" in smart people as kind of a defense mechanism against Dunning-Kruger effect because if you have to little confidence in your knowledge you will start to loose voice against someone with less reasoning in certain topics
What about labrador owners? Would us labrador owners be considered as superior by virtue of the fact that labs are the cutest dogs?
@@jjr1728the cutest dogs are the ones you own dammit, no dog is better than another (except for the dogs that are just straight evil because god damn some of them want nothing but mayhem and violence)
@@BisexualPlagueDoctor no. Labradors are the cutest.
Like Neil Tyson talking about things he has nothing to do with on Joe Rogan show. "We don't have flying cars because bridges exist"
1:00 Glad to know I'm not the only one who binges these kind of videos. Aviation is Awesome!
The "Dunning-Kruger effect"... observable in nearly every government program.
Let me guess, you have no experience or working knowledge of gvt programs, right?
@@aeon_zero I have a lifetime of experience dealing with incompetent government programs and incompetent government employees ...like you.🤣
@@TUCOtheratt which is not what I am, yet you think you know. The level of incompetence in gvt is the same as in any other field, if anything it has more scrutining.
You're textbook Dunning-Krugering, dude. Just watch the video again but listen this time.
This is a needed video in this day and age. It's a shame those that need to see it most won't watch it.
October 1, 2007 never had given a thought to flying. My father in law gave me Microsoft flight simulator. I became obsessed with it. I studied and practiced the Cessna and my and my local airport (in the simulator). October 7, 2007 I went to my (real) airport and flew the real Cessna. Left seat, communicate with tower, taxi, take off, touch and go twice, land. And taxi back. It was so beyond awesome. It was EXACTLY like what I expected all because of the simulator. The most fascinating thing I've ever done in my life.
What is Microsoft flight simulator? Do you need a gaming computer for it, does it look like a real simulator? Im just a girl who would love to pretend to fly a plane just cos its fascinating. Is it free or is it a game tou have to purchase?is it even a game?
@@heatherwoodley8244 1. You do need a good computer for it, but you can also play it on the Xbox 2. It looks very realistic 3. It's closer to a simulator than a game, but it's very accessible to beginners 4. It's $60 (or $10 a month with the Game Pass)
The difference between watching someone do an unfamiliar task and doing it yourself is HUGE.
I'm just an ordinary guy. No special knowledge, no education beyond the basics, but, one talent I've always had. I've always been able to do ANYTHING I could watch someone else do.
This realization isn't absolute in that, even though I have extensively proved this fact to myself over decades, I'm still hesitant to jump into something. My first job at fifteen, I learned in one hour how to cook/bake everything in the restaurant without fail. I've rebuilt cars just by watching someone else. I only call a service person due to time constraints, otherwise I fix everything in my house, cars, or electronics.
@@nyeahgarner2420 same with me, then I went to engineering school and (except for the higher classes) I was bored like hell xD
In sanskrit there is a saying, "Alpavidya bhayankari", meaning "Very little knowledge is dangerous". Which is also part of the lyrics of the song Its my life by Dr. Alban :D
I recently did my ICAO English exam on radiotelephony for pilot school and all those VASAviation ATC videos were unironically really helpful
I’m a pilot and can assure everyone out there than almost no one would be able to land a 737 without some kind of training lol. With that being said it wouldn’t take much training to be able to land a 737. A person with a private pilots license and a atc in their ear could put a 737 on the ground safely.
How many hours do you think is necessary to perform a safe landing aka a landing that everyone can walk away from?
Do you think some flight simulator experience would enable one to bring the plane down without killing everyone? I am having an argument with my brother. Only requirement is that there are survivors.
@@TheErilaz They already implied the answer, 40, that's what it takes to get a PPL
@@schwig44 maybe even less, you do solo landings at 10-20 hours so with some luck you'd be able to land the 737 with help
@@waynebimmel6784 His first landing "started a major fire." It is entirely possible to evacuate the airplane during a major fire, so there would be some survivors, you just wouldn't have everyone survive
The graph about the pilots experience level versus risk is really interesting to me in that I am a trained arborist with 20 years of experience. It's always in the top three most dangerous jobs in America. Like the pilots the guys most likely to lose their life aren't the new guys who don't know anything, those guys are proper scared. It's the guys between three and six years experience. The guys that think they've seen it all and haven't yet actually had to rescue another human being out of a tree. They haven't yet made a simple mistake that almost cost them everything. I've seen young men fall from ridiculous Heights, light themselves on fire from a power line, knock themselves out with a thousand pound log, cut their arms or their legs with chainsaws, explode transformers. The one thing they always have in common is that they're not afraid anymore and they don't need anyone else's input. After such an incident if he gets through it he will be one of the most reliable people that you could have on your crew. If he hasn't seen it yet or done it to himself it's almost assuredly going to happen. With every success without a mistake he marches closer and closer to disaster.
I don’t think I’d be anywhere near the most qualified to land the plane in a disaster scenario, but I still kind of think I could do it if nobody else wanted to. I’ve always wanted to try it. But without the part where I crash and die.
I am impressed that Dr Dunning is still alive and you got the change of interviewing him.
This is so much more than just about trying to land a plane. It applies to every aspect of our perception of life, especially now with social media. It also ties in nicely with your previous video about how the brain works. Quite educative and enlightening! ❤️
The whole thing about some experience being more deadly/dangerous also applies to motorcycles. Most accidents/deaths are either when people first start out, or around 1-3 years of riding under their belt. As for this video, much like you after reading/watching so much I figure I could bring one down with guidance and full autopilot, but yeah, not fully manual. Maybe a Piper Cub with guidance, but not an jet airliner, lol.
Nincompoopery is a word I didn't know I needed to hear. What a wonderful word
I've experienced this as a bus driver, there was a period after I passed my test and started driving on routes and I thought I knew what I was doing, three months and three (Minor) crashes later I came face to face with the Dunning-Kruger effect only months later did it finally click what I was doing wrong.
What were you doing wrong?
@jeremymontasser6182 Basically, just not being aware of the size of the vehicle and not planning a turn correctly.
@@james10o1 ah, makes sense. Thans for elaborating!
"There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns-the ones we don't know we don't know." - Donald Rumsfeld unintentionally summarizing the Dunning-Kruger effect.
There are also unknown knowns, which are things you take for granted and never think about, so you don't know you know.
An unknown known sounds like Socrates/Plato's idea of 'anamnesis': that we have innate knowledge that we're unaware of and learning involves uncovering what we knew all along.
Growing up skateboarding, I always thought it looked so easy when I saw others skating.
It was never easy.
That was my first experience with the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Well done . I've always wanted to try out a proper simulator
I've played msfs for years and I feel confident programming an ILS landing and intercepting the localizer and glide slope and everything else. What I'm skeptical of is how well I could finish the landing after the wheels touch the ground. That part seems super skills-based.
Yeah flight sims helps
1st) you might need the proper auto brake setting
2nd) read the checklists ^^
3rd) in such a scenario no one would expect you to taxi that plane. As an emergency landing you simply follow instructions. I'd assume they ask you to set the parking brake on the runway you've landed on, and turn of the engines and turn on the APU (+ maybe some other stuff) for safety.
The crazy thing about the Dunning-Kruger effect is that even though i know it exists, even though I see and know the results, I still can't help but feel i would do better than Joe did were i given this test. I too watch a lot of youtube videos on aviation, I watch videos from pilots who get into the details on all the things that go on during takeoff and landing, and breakdown all the instruments in the plane and their purpose, and I've learned a lot from these videos. I also have played lots of flight sim games, and still do every once in a while. I also have exactly 0 hours flying an actual plane.
I'm familiar with the Dunning-Kruger effect, I know that it might be completely false, but I still can't help feeling that I'd at least do better than Joe were I put through the same test, although I have no way of actually proving it. Until I actually do the test, I can't help but assume I'd do better, and there's nothing I can do to change that thinking.
I'm in the same boat. Experience with DCS and FSX one decent sim equipment makes me feel probably more confident than I should.
@@SonoftheBread ikr! and the kicker is I actually work at a place that produces helicopters and trains pilots on their platform. I was given the chance to fly on their training simulator, which is on the level that we see in this video but for the helicopters they make. I was awful at it. I managed to land without breaking the helicopter, but the helicopter was rattling a lot because of my jerky inputs, i got blown around by the wind more than I thought I would, and bonked the tail off the top of a building on the way down,
but the videos I watch, and the planes I fly in FSX are not helicopters... sooo.... >.>
I've played DCS as well, but I am a bad fighter, so I didn't get into it. I like simulating commercial flights instead.
+chefDano3 Think of it like watching fights all your life and doing no training for a fight and then having a real one.
Ikr, now that I have the Thrustmaster Airbus Captain Pack + Fenix A320 I feel even more overconfident 😭
Well you probably *do* have more experience than Joe, so you'd probably do better than him. I didn't watch the whole video as I was just interested in the flying part not the philosophy, but he didn't seem to be the kind of guy that played around on simulators and watches YT flying videos. I want to try one of these sims too, there's one of these public ones nearby, might be a cool gift to myself!
I believe I'm currently working for the Dunning Kruger company
13 hours ago!?! My brain is malfunctioning
How in the world does this say this comment was posted 13 hours ago? The vid was posted like 5 minutes ago?
@@bluethunder_ The video may have been unlisted then uploaded later
@@bluethunder_ guys guys… they might be a supporter of the channel or something stop freaking out
Hint hint Patreon
I was put in a really difficult situation when I was hired as an automation programmer without having the necessary knowledge (after the owner's suggestion). In my first month the only other programmer quit, leaving me with a bunch of delayed projects and a huge mess of programs. I often found myself telling the owner that my job is really hard because at every step I had to consider what I didn't know. But this made me very aware of the fact I didn't know enough and I setup procedures for testing and QA that in the end I ended up being the best programmer the company ever had. I had no idea about this effect but with methodical thinking I was able to discover it and overcome it. Now I also know the name for it.
When I was getting my pilots license, my instructor said that we were now ready for me to start actually landing the plane. We had worked on slow flight, pattern and approaches, the flare etc. now it was time to do it! As I waited for him to pass his vast knowledge over to me, he looked at me and said “ sorry but I can teach you how to land. You will have to teach yourself”! Oh great, thanks. This was actually true. He had taught me all he could, now it was purely practice and experience. Getting that feel for the flare, judging the exact height to flare, feeling the plane settling down and loosing ground effect, and at the same time staying centered on the runway. It takes time, repetitive practice and the development of a “new sense”. It was a thrilling and rewarding process to learn to fully be able to consistently land the plane on my own. And then he said “OK you can do this. I am getting out and you are going to solo fly this plane and come back and land.
Wow, oh boy. Literally do or die. I did.
From what I remember a teenage girl had to do her first solo flight and the gear malfunctioned and a recording of air-flight-controller conversation exists online.
You should do a video on the second half of DK, where people who /are/ experts in their field have a hard time understanding how little a beginner knows. It's hugely important when teaching but most people just can't seem to recall how clueless they were when they were beginning.
I taught drivers ed back in the day, and it amazed me how often parents would consistently skip basic steps when teaching their kids to drive just because it was obvious to them. Simple things like how hard you press the accelerator or how far you turn the wheel on a right vs left turn. It's overwhelming to most kids, but most parents would almost always default to just saying "it's so easy" over and over.
Btw, imo, hearing "it's so easy" is the number 1 indicator a teacher/instructor is unqualified.
Funny you should mention that. I was taught how to drive by my mother who drove school busses. My father straightened out the clutch and stick part of my driving. A few years after that, I told them I was going on a fraternity camping trip (in an 1981 VW Rabbit with a 5 speed and a 1600cc Diesel engine.). Gave them all the details that you're supposed to give when going on a road trip driving yourself. Not one word of advice.
Halfway up Arizona Highway 87 (on my way to Christopher Creek, AZ), having passed several signs telling commercial truck drivers to downshift and getting passed by everything else, I realized that maybe fifth gear wasn't good on steep inclines. When I asked my dad why they didn't tell me, his exact words were, "We'd figured you'd would figure it out yourself." Geese, thanks Dad. I made damn sure not to make that mistake with my daughter.
There's also a phenomenon by which experts overlook basic flaws because they are so focused on exquisitely detailed knowledge. For example, discoveries of new celestial objects are often made by amateur astronomers, while the pros are more apt to be zeroed in on one particular problem they are trying to solve.
I eyerollingly smirked when you started the, "and please return your tray tables..." then threw my hands up in a huge V and shouted, "Joooeee!!!" when it turned into a Leslie Nielsen quote! When your instructor said, "we're all counting on you" earlier on I wondered if he wasn't referencing the same, now I'm (probably excessively) overjoyed 😂
I had a maiden flight with a ULM and a very well skilled pilot in the Verdon in the Alpes de Haute Provence. Although I flew RC model planes at the time, I couldn’t do what he did there. Landing was really like flying into the mountain, flaring at the last moment, on a slope of about 20 degrees. Quite sure that was a pilot with skills to go save people in the mountains. Reminds me of Alexandre de Saint Exupery. One of the pioneers. He watched how birds were landing in the mountains.
That "Killing Zone" graphic is very true in the military as well. For instance, in the Army generally, all the young gung-ho privates think they know so much and run around like chickens and often die in battle first because of it, I mean, they played COD! As they mature and realize the gravity of the overall mission, they tend to be more studied and experienced and then plan accordingly and are less likely to die. Of course, as they continue to rank up, they get further and further from the actual battlefield. Most LTCs and Colonels and up haven't seen a battlefield in years.
In a situation where you have to take over for the pilot, the goal is to do a controlled crash where people survive. Anything better is cake.
I feel there maybe a way to avoid the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
One of the attributes of critical thinking is to challenge all assumptions and biases, if you re-evaluate those assumptions and biases within the subject matter of choice your left with knowledge that is known or unknown.
Having this list of knowledge that is known to you is like a shopping list, always able to pick out the knowledge you know but also understanding the knowledge you don't know.
The clarity of the knowledge we know should be regularly be checked.
so essentially, creating a virtual second brain to question the one you have? ;-)
@@joansparky4439 Kinda, its more like being mindful of the knowledge you have rather than making assumptions on top of assumptions
Considering I just started ground school to get my PPL (private pilots license) - which will take months - I really need to be mindful of this effect.