@@iwantobelieveYou think the average person cares about pretty much anything outside of what directly impacts them? Trash, roads, sanitation….minute expats start to point fingers at shady practices or pure exploitation…we are simply told to go home. People aren’t interested in fixing things. They have no buy in…
As a foreigner not allowed to own land, condos are my only option. But why would I want to BUY, and lock myself into a specific location when I can hop around the Philippines and "Rent as I go".
As a Filipino, I suggest to never buy a condo unit here in PH. It's overprice, very tiny, have ugly design, and very hard to resell. There's tons of hidden fees as well.
@@ozzymick1431 You can have control if you set up a Philippine Corporation, become a member of the corporation and have the corporation lease it back to you for 25 years with an option of renewal. Talk to a real estate attorney. Put the original certificate of title from register of deeds in your safe deposit box in your home country too. Condos aren’t a good option.
@Gregory-Masovutch Wow! You really know your stuff. Thanks for the heads up but I'm a retiree in my 70s. Happy living in a provincial town in Laguna Province with my 60yo Filipina partner (no flussy, but lovely lady). Had my ups and downs financially in Australia but happy to rent a 2 brm apartment for 6,000php per month, almost as much as my WEEKLY rent for a tiny room in a share house in Aust. I fly home every 6 months for medical check ups and family reunions. So all good 👍.
Guess what those developers anticipated the influx of POGOS Mostly Chinese😂... So what now since PH govt had pushed their total ban ... So why not the government let non Chinese foreigners buy /own those influx of condos if that can help the economy... Really happy those POGOs totally dismantled in our system we can do better...
True! I’ve stayed in several overpriced condos (via Air BnB), some were only 2 years old, but the paints were already peeling, tiles lifting, etc. Nowadays, I prefer to stay in hotels, where you can actually call staff if needed.
Kahit 500k I would not buy a condo. Ang mahal ng Dues at taxes. Triny ko matulog sa isang unit sa airbnb last Christmas eve to see whats happening, jusko parang ghost town bihira ang tao considering dikit sa Venice Grand Canal Mall.. sa gabi bihira ang units ang may ilaw sa katapat na towers. Promise Ghost town feels tlga. Yung ginamit naming unit halatang not used for a very long time. Majority pa ng tao nakikita ko is halatang nag Airbnb lang din dahil Christmas season lang. Also, hindi ko na ulitin mag checkin dun ang mahal ng parking 600 overnight. Pero pag hotel free. Wala akong makitang bahid ng opportunity tlga..
Spot on! This is just real talk instead of those so-called economists that are downplaying the market since they have their own self-interests in keeping the prices high. A correction needs to happen as the middle class cannot afford a home anymore. Remote work needs to be reinforced as well to keep healthy levels in the real estate market.
The philippines is now at the top 3 in asean in terms of economic growth and development. Kindly deepen your searches more so you can have the correct data and information regarding the country’s economy. These data are available on line and on govt channels such as ptv 4 and rtvm and on bbm’s instagram, you tube and fb accounts. Finally, fyi..,middle class in the Philippines is very strong. They are the target buyers of these condo units other than the ofws and balikbayans or returning ofws. These developers are not stupid to put their investment on projects which they have not studied beforehand. Btw.. middle class here are those who have houses in private villages and buy condos for investment and for their extended families. They earn at least 100k up to 250k pesos a month and are executives in their companies and those who own small and medium sized businesses are also included in that category. You may think thst those people who have sari sri stores and fish / meat vendors in the local markets and in tondo manila are poor but hell, no. You would be surprised to find thise small store owners are better off than you and have millions of savings but do not flaunt their wealth because they are contented with simple living but spend their money wisely
Very true the oligarchs have no talent other than jacking up prices and/or shortchanging buyers with cheaper materials and labor, and unfinished amenities, etc.
It costs at most 30k USD to build a tiny concrete shoe box in the sky with poverty wages and shit quality furnishings. The profits are in excess of 90%. This is obvious. A 50% price crash isn't going to stop the building. It is still a suckers price for would be buyers. The corrupt huge corporations are selling to the Filipino rich, not the OFWs. The Philippines has a corrupt business class with huge profits and poor business practices which is why the country is the worst value in Asia for tourists.
But these "genius" so called expats are experts...they know everything about the Philippines .... they're the only ones that can afford and the ofw's. Shhh...they know best because they speak English with a foreign accent.
@@matrices3987 The land prices are also inflated plus the HOA doesn’t even own the land. So with the 50 year rule, the land owner can resell the land at any price and the condo owners are stuck at a pro-rata share whatever that number is.
@@1949cr Bad news-even OFWs are being hit hard by inflation and sky-high Col anywhere in the world, making investing in our own land difficult and almost nonsensical
CONDOS are toooo expensive in the Philippines. Oversupply true. And even OFW's cannot afford it and foreigners too. OVERPRICING, different taxes etc etc, association dues. Problem with the structure, problem with the electric bills. Its not only CONDOs even houses and lots, unbelievable prices. Who can afford it? Perhaps mostly corrupt people who don't earned their money by hardworks, druglords etc... we don't know??
Yep, foreigners said Malaysia and Thailand are cheaper and still have bigger space/room, while having better public transportation. They said our condominiums are overpriced because of POGO, they pay high, no more POGO, now it's oversupply.
THEY WERE NOT made for tghe average filipinos. the ordinary filipinos were the farthest from their greedy greedy minds. those condos were made for the POGO's. so sorry.
PH's highest GDP export isn't OFW's or tourism, it's actually semiconductors which is the highest complexity export that currently exists. PH is set to be a benificiary of Taiwan diversifying production and the US Chips act making PH semiconductor production a key node in the move away from China.
Those condos weren’t worth the prices they were charging 5 years ago. Only a fool would purchase at today’s prices. When considering the quality and size of these condos the prices are grossly overpriced. It will be a crash!
A few things you're not getting about the Philippines. One is these developers are insanely rich, far more liquid than the government. Another is it's not a normal RE market by any stretch. Vendor finance on low deposits is standard practice. The default terms are written into the purchase contracts, there won't be any foreclosure auctions. Another is "OFW" is a specific program where the wages are way below lawful minimum wages in countries with normal trade laws. (They aren't buying any BGC condos).
@@1776dougie No one is actually buying these. The corporations are just squeezing every ounce they can from anyone daring enough to try. It’s a bit of a scam, honestly. Lmao
I agree with you 1000% I first noticed the greed after visiting mctan Island in 2023. I've been into real estate for over 30yrs and I was blown away at the prices there in cebu. The infrastructure is below the average living standards. Sure the condo buildings are nice but it's like parking a new Bently in a salvage yard of junk cars. Once you're outside the confines of the gated compound it's like wtf? The greed for foreign dollars have cast a sense of delusional ideas in the minds of the greedy developers who believe it ok to overcharge for the condos. I called this coming crash in 2023. It's impossible for this to sustain.
@@MRwaterlicious Also look straight down the window of many of these condominiums beachside or in the provinces and what do you see? Shack housing, slum living, roosters and old tricycle’s and poor folks struggling right next to your condo. I remember seeing this in Engano Lapu Lapu. Look out the window but not straight down. The same thing with Megaworld Festival Walk Condominiums in Iloilo.
The condo bubble already burst. There’s already 60% oversupply of units. The over inflated prices have become so unreasonable that no one is buying them. The next bubble to burst is real estate in parts of metro Manila where POGO operators used to reside like Paranaque, Pasay. Same with Cavite (especially Tagaytay). 80% of housing there are up for sale and been sitting in the market for 2 years already. It’s because these realtors price their listings way too high. We have no database of comparables that’s why sellers over inflate their selling price. It’s so outrageously expensive that it cheaper to buy a property in the States.
There’s so many of that properties that will soon becomes empty because non of the local can afford that high price of living. Most OFW would rather own a land instead of getting stuck in that trendy ghettos.
Nailed it in the head... These corporations never learned from the US economy crashed back in 08... Right now, I'm gonna let my money grow through my 401K & stocks. When the right time comes up, its time to buy buy buy but definitely not a condo in Makati or BGC...
BGC / Real Estate in the Philippines isn’t an investment like we think of it in the West. The only benefit is use…You get to go back and forth to the same location…Manila isn’t a great city… BGC may be the nicest spot but it’s essentially fake…Its a private developer that made essentially a Philippines Beverly Hills, it’s not representative of the overall state of the city or stability.
Made in toxic China materials for condo construction have made Manila condos unsafe to live in. For example, toxic radioactive sheet rocks, tiles that causes fibrosis of the lungs. These are but a tiny sample of why the developers have used inferior Chinese materials at the buyer's expense.
Why blame China? It's the cheap landlords and Filipino development firms that are poisoning people - choosing to buy the worst of the worst products. I've lived in China in apartments 1/5th the cost of a BGC condo that have good quality materials, albeit a simple design with no amenities. It's a choice of the developer. They can buy good quality materials, from China or elsewhere, or they can buy the worst of the worst from China or India and poison their customers.
Well said brother. Dammmm, u speak the truth. To those who claim that condo prices would rise later for better return, u just parked your 300k USD or more and not even getting 1% ROI. And that pure stupidity as an investor
Having leased a condo in McKinley West for 1 year my wife and I were blown away by the number of unoccupied condos. In addition quite a few units were owned by folks who had never occupied or even rented their units. So we were the first renters of their unit. When I asked why they bought the unit in the first place they said it was an investment and they hoped to flip it for a profit. Unfortunately every other unit in the building had the same idea, so competition was tough and they now needed to rent the unit to help with their condo mortgage asap. Long story short we bargained them down to what we felt was a fair monthly rent.
Buying a condo as an investment for lease is not a good idea these days. It will take at least 10 years or more before your ROI or return on investment or unless you're into buy and sell with a great salestalk.
@@Ncollins99 if some one invested 6-5 years ago, then yes its almost 3x ROI, but after covid, price just skyrocketed.. people could not sell their condos at current price... alot waitng for the bubble for bargain discount condos defaulting... unless building developers has rites to buy first....somethings afoot alot of speculation as of late.
@@mjfab74 we saw something similar down south with land. Many 10 year old gated communities with ALL the lots sold and maybe only three or four homes actually built. Looked like a place to park your cash ‘if’ you believe that there would be good equity after a number of years.
What I noticed/learned while renting a condo for a month in BGC. The 33rd floor I was on in this 3 year old condominium was a ghost town. I would go days not seeing anyone on the entire floor. There would a handful of people in the lobby of the building on Friday night, but still very few people and maybe one family on my entire floor besides me on a weekend. I would speak to the man who was in charge of building short term rentals (day/week). One day I asked him what the deal was not seeing anyone on my floor. He told me people bought on speculation and things have been over built/sold. He told me a year lease 3 years ago was going for a 1,000Php peso a sqm (45 sqm equaled 45K per month). Today, if the buyer/speculator can find someone, it's at between 800-900 per sqm or 36K-40.5k p/m on an annual lease. The short term rental manager further told me the buyers of the units had to refurbish at 3 years because of the initial poor quality. I jokingly said to the man 'So you wouldn't recommend buying a unit'. He replied not unless you want sakit ng ulo (a headache).
The Philippine property market is fairly well compartmentalized in that banks are extremely cautious on handing out mortgages. Defaults do happen and will continue to happen as we head into the uncertainties of a post-POGO world and a slowdown in the global economy. This price correction in the property market would probably be very tame and might not be as severe simply because the owners or buyers of these condos are spread out around the world. One economy might be booming while others are struggling. It's not gonna be a domino effect as many would hope it would be to snag a good bargain.
Anyone who buys a unit almost twice the proce of another adjacent apartment older by a few years only, it will not end well when the bubble starts to blow up. An example would be the Shore Residences at MOA.
Average Philippinos on $10,000 USD per year can't afford $500,000-$750,000 USD apartments. I think greedy supplier of funds (banks, REITs, , Investment funds) would need to worry if they're chasing perpetual returns since the oversupply could lead to asset impairment if the apartments not sold. Alternatively they can just rent out the apartments.
Honestly its WAYYYY overpriced in Philippines. I was looking for Condos for 500K USD and I was APPALLED by the poor selection of condos and the kitchens were SOO SMALL. For 500K USD you can get a BEAUTIFUL PENTHOUSE in Colombia in MEDELLÍN AND BOGOTÁ with a lot of SQUARE FOOTAGE and beautiful large kitchens and the standard of living is better than the Philippines. I hope there's a HUGE correction so the ordinary FILIPINO can AFFORD a home there.
I did not think the article was talking about condo building turnover? Maybe I mis-read it. It's ALWAYS about selling price, right now the Manila condos are WAY overpriced. If a seller lets his condo for a "market fair" price, it will likely sell quicker than most out there (condition and location aside). BGC will draw a premium price but the market will ultimately decide what the price is.
I was in the Philippines last and have notice a lot of condominiums and still continue to build and wonder who’s gonna buy all this unit, majority of the Filipinos working abroad are not rich. I’m predicting that there will be a real state collapse in the Philippines sometime in the future.
The 3x price increase in the past 5 years is the safety net for the developers and it's the reason the construction rate is up. The construction costs are essentially the same and the land investment is practically irrelevant when it comes to condos. There's no crash coming.
I would love continuing updates on the condo market in BGC. There is another vlogger there in BGC saying some of the same things, but he’s such a pompous A-hole, it’s hard to listen to his videos.
Firstly, it can be challenging to discuss serious topics like the economy and lifestyle, especially in casual settings like the street. Secondly, Mergim, I've been following your work since your initial comparison between Thailand and the Philippines. I must say, you've done a great job with your in-depth report on the condo market situation in the Philippines. Kudos to you, my friend-keep up the great work! I hope to see you covering a wide range of topics soon.
Mergim -- How do the prices look (?) - AND - rental price for fully furnished studios in Eastwood City ? More people can afford it there - but very curious if many (?) units are available & still prices @ about $320/mo. ? How is the infrastructure there ? 🤔
China 🇨🇳 property market has crashed 50% in the last 2 to 3 years which is a problem for the Philippines 🇵🇭 because about 50% of property investment pre pandemic 😷 was Chinese 🇨🇳 foreigners are mostly renters so who is buying these condos now 🙀
first video I've ever seen from you, you're quite grounded and i find that your take is the most realistic from all the others I've seen about this issue, well done
These developers have far more money than the government. They ARE the government. It's the major families who run the Philippines, and they will never run out of cash. You are right that the price of condos (for sale or for rent) are going to come down because Marcos sent the Pogos home and so now there are very few renters, but there will never be a risk of any of the developers going broke.
Do you think that the poor Filipino people will pay for the debt of these rich developers? They will be hunted by the Filipino people. Anyway according to ABS CBN news there is an oversupply of condos in metro Manila and breakdown is Quezon city - 18,000 units, Bay area- 10,000, Ortigas - 8,000 , Makati 4,000 . BGC is out of the list. I think it is time for BBM to regulate the number of condo construction in the country or make more office buildings because there is more demands for office buildings in the country.
Developers have a weird layout of their condos making more units per buildings in such a small room for an artificially inflated prices as if the Philippines have a land supply problem like in Hong Kong then it would be understandable to make a building where it can house more units but developers did this since they taught they can sold each of the units and get away with the profits but in reality the condos they build are empty and that's what they get from being greedy. Btw you forgot to mention that the Philippines have the highest labor tax in South East Asia. I also agree with you that Filipinos should upskill but with the current 1987 constitution that stipulated 60%-40% ownership of business (Filipino 60%/Foreign 40%) tends to make investors shy away from investing in the Philippines given with the poor infrastructure and corruption in establishing a business. That's why most of the Filipino companies here are service oriented industries majority of which are the BPO companies.
I've heard that those ownership restrictions have been changed recently, and now foreigners can own 100%, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps it has to do with this issue.
60-40 is easily bypassed and isn't even the biggest problem, it's just a red herring, it's easily dealt with by complex ownership structures. The biggest problem is high electricity cost (low fossil fuel reserves, island geography, weak investments on renewables, no nuclear power generation) and corruption (self-explanatory).
Mergim -- From what I can gather from the comments, I made the following conclusion: >> Limited Ownership: Condominiums cater to wealthier segments, not the average Filipino. >> Focus on Affordability: Most Filipinos prioritize affordable housing over high-end condos. >> Economic Resilience: Other key sectors like agriculture and BPOs buffer the broader economy. >> Potential Rent Benefits: A crash could make urban living more affordable for renters. Philippine policymakers could significantly expand the economy by adopting "inclusive economic development," a strategy successfully implemented by neighbouring ASEAN countries. Unfortunately, political personalities and name recognition often hold greater sway with the voting public than substantive and progressive policy ideas, hindering long-term economic progress.
Great video Mergim, we went South, looking at purchasing land in Luzon. I am about to put out a video about issues with (Filipino), land purchases, that we witnessed. Keep up the good work! CJC Three
I personally disagree with the BPO take, While it does not pay rly high, it is still a source of revenue for the govt and having seen the manufacturing salaries, they even pay WAY LESS than the BPO side. High end manufacturing may pay better in the end BUT they require some convincing from investors to manufacture here which currently they are hesitant because of the exorbitant prices of energy costs here. If the Government remove the BPO here, the countries that gives the jobs will just outsource elsewhere like for example in India. The gambling side like pogo, Im fine with that to be removed but the other jobs field is good.
@@sentimentalboy81I agree with the blogger’s assessment of the condo situation in the Philippines and, BGC, in particular. I have been looking into buying a condo unit in the BGC area but decided against it because I find the price too high, unrealistic and unjustifiable even though affordability is not an issue. In my personal opinion, I’m much better off buying a real estate investment in the U.S., especially in the Silicon Valley because selling in the future won’t be problem at all. It’s quite the opposite situation pretty much everywhere else in the Philippines including BGC: very easy to buy but extremely difficult to unload due thousands of unsold real estate properties constantly flooding the market. For this reason, I have been on the fence unable to find justification for buying a condo unit at such an exorbitant price with suspect build-quality. I also did research and found out that there are literally thousands of condos for sale throughout the Philippines, including basically thousands of units unsold in BGC alone. Many of the condos sit on the market unsold for years. Therefore, there’s definitely an over supply of condo units in the Philippines, including BGC. At what point is the unsustainable price of real estate market in the Philippines going to crash is not a matter of IF but WHEN. It will be bloody and ugly when it finally happens. I might finally decide to scoop up a condo unit in BGC at a discount or bargain basement price that I’m comfortable with. But really, time is on my side as I’m in no hurry.
Also this bloke doesn't understand that of the $40-50 billion USD received in taxes and marked for gov expenditure each year, probably a third of that expenditure is pilfered by corrupt bureaucrats and politicians which is then poured into real estate. There are financial laws and constraints which prevent that pilfered money from being invested aboard and so it's trapped in the Philippines, boosting the condo market irrationally. Hence the lack of infrastructure spending, a lot of those potential infra funds are pocketed by the politicians. The market is corrupted money from politicians and bureaucrats who likely pocket a $1million USD or $2 mil every year. There are around 19,000 bureaucrats and politicians who pocket around that much each year. The buyers of these condo's are not working class people or even foreigners / OFW's, it's the corrupt bureaucratic and politician class with millions of dollars each.
As of last year, Bangkoks over-supply of apts/condos dwarfed that of Manila. Yet amazingly prices have held firm if not risen in 2024. I guess demand from foreigners as well as middle class Thais with a higher GDP than Phil sort of mitigates the problem.
Because there is less demand in Thailand hence prices dont rise up plus the fact that their population is small and yet its an aging population meaning not many new generations that will work and fuel their economy in the future. Very few number of future “buyers” of estates.
Really,? I started the purchase of a condo in chiang Mai ten years ago. But decided not to complete. Just checked the second hand price. And it is the same now as 10 years ago
Buying condos is stupid. Renting condos and buying a house are the only options. Never get fooled by sellers that units are sold out it is just a scam to fool you.
I agree with this guy. The Phils is not what it use to be. The Phils has lost is glammor. many of the guys that moved there are getting old an passing on. Plus many other variables are involved. Samething is taking place in Cebu. Question? Why move to the Phils to live within the exact same enviorment that we have here being in the city. The reality is the Phils is much to Westernized, and its turning people off. It use to be reasonable to live there. But now the costs are very simular to the West.
I almost bought a condo unit near MOA as an investment. 7M php 15 years to pay. Thank god my finance brain was still working because I cannot reconcile how should I earn profit from it if I put it on Airbnb. I would pay around 45k in mortgage exclusive of int. I just knew immediately that the bank would earn at least 2m on interest. Crazy! I need to earn at least 75k a month on rent to cover all cost including mortgage. I don't believe I will earn that on Airbnb a month unless it's a long term rental but I knew only foreigners can afford it. 90% of population can't afford a condo. You gotta be realistic as an ofw. I am just happy to decline the investment. The broker got irritated with me with all my questions. I am happy I kept asking questions. 7mPhp is almost a downpayment for me here to buy a house & lot in europe. Better to buy a house & lot in PH than a condo. Even a developed lot is better already. Most filipinos would buy that than a condo.
I hope so. They're all overinflated and the prices developers are putting up are ridiculous. I'd like to set up a base there but I'd rather go for foreclosures and flash sales because you never know what type of admin those new buildings would get. We bought an SM Light unit nearby but the cockroaches there are notoriously bad and elevators were so slow it takes 30mins to even get out. I heard some similar stories with the maybe med-lower end projects. High-end are just overpriced for very little benefit.
I purchased condos 6 months ago with delivery in December 2031. Even got a 20% discount as a cash buyer. Exclusive location in BGC. I guess all I can do is sit back and wait 😊
@teeh7125 Yes, it only recently started the foundations. It's marketed as one of the most upscale condo towers in BGC. It will be the tallest building in BGC. Megaworld realty is behind the project. A trusted company in the Philippines
Not trying to scare everyone but this is always in the back of my mind, maybe because i was traumatized with my experience when I was a child in Manila in 68 . Seem like everyone have forgotten that Philippines is in the Pacific "Ring Of Fire" zone. One nasty earthquake and the Condo Business in the Philippines is dead. I hope and pray that we will never ever have to experience the big one. But last year, two major earthguakes with 6.8 and a 7.4 magnitude hit the southern part of Philippines. The country also records an average of 20 earthquakes per day. I am hoping those buildings are earthquake proof that can withstand a massive quake. If not, God help us all! I am in the market of my retirement home but for this reason, I will never buy a Condo nor live around high risers.
You got a point. I was in the Philippines just last January and I got worried about people living on this high rise condo unit if there will be an earthquake, my cousin died in that Miami building collapsed and not even cause by an earthquake.
Nice info Mergim! I am an expat from NYC and would like to live in BGC someday. I am a musican who plays drums and guitars, is there a soundproof music room in most BGC condo where I can practice/play my loud instruments for a fee?
Very short answer, no. Home prices and apartment prices worldwide should be crashing. Within a 10 minute drive there are over 100 vacant units, prices haven't come down much. They should be 50% lower already.
Cambodia and Thailand condos are 1/3 the price and are much larger and nicer. Ph condo market is the biggest and the most FOMO pumped up market I have ever seen. It is total absurd. I can pick up a one bedroom in Canada for less money than in the PH, rent it out and the difference after all fees and taxes will give me almost unlimited rental options here. Why on earth would I ever buy anything here?
@@LAXAMAND I did not buy anything. I am renting a 5 year old condo in a very prestigious business area in the Philippines. I am looking to buy in Cambodia but for one year I will be here in the Ph. Thailand is nice too but Thai Visa is a total night mare unless you have 135K USD to blow on a 20 year ellite. Cambodia has the easiest visa in the world.
It will only affect those who built these useless, tight, shoe box room called condos. People are not dumb, they will not buy these sorry excuse of a room called condos. Greed will come back and bite them back.
I have friends or friends-of-friends who are nurses/ engineers/ programmers abroad. They buy condo units as part of their retirement plans. The condos are also their home-base whenever they fly in for vacations. Agree with you though, some developers are being greedy, not taking care of their clients. There’s a recent vlog from the Kito Family channel complaining about the quality of the condo that they have purchased. This gives a bad reputation to Philippine condos in general 😢
Actually based on latest statistics, BGC has only 1,800 unsold units. The lowest in Metro Manila. Quezon city is the highest with over 20,000 units unsold.
Pogos jacked up rental prices of condos. Now that they're gone, prices are now free falling, which can be a good thing so that more locals can afford to buy one. But even if the prices go down, locals are probably not the target market, but ofws and foreigners who want to invest or retire. But even ofws are considering buying houses in the provinces, and foreigners are going somewhere else with better prices and return of investment such as Thailand or Vietnam. With no one buying or renting condos, they're just dead assets, and another evergrande situation is waiting in the local real estate market. Even as a local, i don't think buying a condo in metro is worth your money lmao
What about foreigners who just want to live in a glass luxury condo on the 35th floor, feeling like you're urban and sophisticated and a recluse, with no neighbours, just focusing on your books and computer
Condo prices are ridiculously high and the unit sizes are super small. The financing system is not very foreigner friendly. Locals get 15yr loans and foreigner are required to pay in 5 yrs
Crash or no crash, it's best not to expect anything to change. 😂 When everything's hyped up, people here generally become irrational about property, and prices tend to skyrocket. Reality only bites when the properties get foreclosed. But probably not in BGC or Makati. Those who can afford property there will have the deep pockets to hang on to their units for generations. People are suckers for prestige. 😅😂🤣
Yes, I believe there are over supply of condos in the Philippines. I bought my condo in 2010. The condo building I'm in now is only 40% occupied. It's 30 storey-high. Each floor has 23 units. Sadly, more & more condos are built every day.
The elephant in the room is the global debt $303 trillion in debt. The only thing the economy is chugging along is the U.S as a reserve currency has the ability to print money and that too is running out of time when U.S government defaults and services grinds to a halt. When the consumer stop spending in general cars or homes, the economy tanks think about 1929 depression and 2007 it just a matter of time.
@@stevem437 Well steve if i met you someday and offer you in my hand and on my left is a gold nugget and in my right hand is a $50 dollars in a brief case what would you choose? If you pick the right answer i would happily give you the "RED PILL" just like Morpheus in the Matrix.
I've lived in Davao over a year, seeing the market flooded with condos and the prices keep going up. They don't know the rule of holes: when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. They keep raising prices and building, mark up is insane. Keep in mind, Davao isn't a huge expat city, but they build like think it is. Studio condos that should be 2m list for 4 to 8m (this is a much cheaper market), units that should be 10m, they ask 20-30, and you see the same ads and no turnover. Most of the existing are less than 50% sold, even after many years. Many of the sold units are airbnb, not residents, so the actual number of buyers who actually live there is probably closer to 5-10% of the units built, at most. Yes, I'm waiting for a major correction.
There are different variables to take into account. One : is new units available . Two: Are existing units that are being sold by previous owners or repossession. Third : is the units that haven't been built yet but are looking for deposits. We saw what happened in China with their real estate crash and hundreds of people losing their investment. Air b&b and rental units are going to be on the rise, and the prices are going to drop . $50k dollars seems to be the starting price because the developers know that the minimum for an srrv investment is $50k dollars, and that is for a very small studio unit . The Filipinos are very patient people and will sit on these units until they get what they are asking for.
if the avg salary in Manila is 40-50K then the studio rent should not be more than 12-15K a month, but i see the studios or 1BR;s are going for 40-60K in BGC area, who and how the people are able to afford these rent in Manila? To pay a rent of 50-60K a month you need to have atleast 250k-300K income, is it what people earn in Manila? I am not from Philippines, so your input is welcome
If you have not done it yet, would love to see you do an analysis on Eastwood, an amazing place also. If/When the Pesos crashes harder, let's say 100 pesos/USD, that will be a great time to pick up some condos there :) peace.
Developers should not slow down. We still have a lot of unmet demand. They should lower the price to the average pay for the area/district. When it spirals downward, I hope it reaches back to 2 years' average salary. Many hold for as long as possible; study says over 3 years, but there will be a limit. Can't hold on to a property no one wants to buy at market price forever. When it begins, it will be a quick race to sell or downward pressure to sell.
When you have even their own politicians saying saying there is a massive over supply and the quality is terrible plus lack of maintenance I don't understand the prices. Thankfully we can buy land and build.
Another thing many forget is that they base the price compared to first word country where construction highly regulated, worker salary is very expensive. They need insurance. All steps are inspected thoroughly... They want the same price without any of that.
Big players like Ayala Land don’t drop their prices. They’re in for the long haul, and they have tons of cash. Maybe they’ll offer a longer payment term on the deposit, but that’s it. Ayala has better money managers and smarter people than the Philippine government
Who are panicking? 😂
Average Filipinos don't care what happens to corrupt greedy corporations 😂
true, average Filipinos will not care cause it can't afford condo.
yeah rich people problem, probably wouldnt even feel it....probably the one spreading rumors so they could aquire more default assets.
Yup, 90% can't afford condo, so crushing maybe beneficial for the people, or maybe not ,still too much.
well, if our economy crashes then it's us the masses will suffer greatly, not the real estate developers or the rich, so you should start to care.
@@iwantobelieveYou think the average person cares about pretty much anything outside of what directly impacts them? Trash, roads, sanitation….minute expats start to point fingers at shady practices or pure exploitation…we are simply told to go home. People aren’t interested in fixing things. They have no buy in…
As a foreigner not allowed to own land, condos are my only option.
But why would I want to BUY, and lock myself into a specific location when I can hop around the Philippines and "Rent as I go".
As a Filipino, I suggest to never buy a condo unit here in PH. It's overprice, very tiny, have ugly design, and very hard to resell. There's tons of hidden fees as well.
@@ozzymick1431 You can have control if you set up a Philippine Corporation, become a member of the corporation and have the corporation lease it back to you for 25 years with an option of renewal. Talk to a real estate attorney. Put the original certificate of title from register of deeds in your safe deposit box in your home country too.
Condos aren’t a good option.
@Gregory-Masovutch Wow! You really know your stuff. Thanks for the heads up but I'm a retiree in my 70s. Happy living in a provincial town in Laguna Province with my 60yo Filipina partner (no flussy, but lovely lady).
Had my ups and downs financially in Australia but happy to rent a 2 brm apartment for 6,000php per month, almost as much as my WEEKLY rent for a tiny room in a share house in Aust.
I fly home every 6 months for medical check ups and family reunions.
So all good 👍.
Guess what those developers anticipated the influx of POGOS Mostly Chinese😂... So what now since PH govt had pushed their total ban ... So why not the government let non Chinese foreigners buy /own those influx of condos if that can help the economy... Really happy those POGOs totally dismantled in our system we can do better...
@@lornaismael6212thanks for the tip.
Its already happening. Philippine condos are way overpriced and many are in bad shape or poor quality.
tru❤
True! I’ve stayed in several overpriced condos (via Air BnB), some were only 2 years old, but the paints were already peeling, tiles lifting, etc. Nowadays, I prefer to stay in hotels, where you can actually call staff if needed.
due to Chinese workers
I bought a foreclosure bank owned condo in the Philippines and paid 1.2 million php for originally 5.3 million price.
Years ago. Most of Ayala groups units revert to Ayala ownership in default, necessary to maintain 60% Filipino ownership.
@@Ghekko-kw3zz So why would an outsider buy? Makes no sense at all.
Kahit 500k I would not buy a condo. Ang mahal ng Dues at taxes. Triny ko matulog sa isang unit sa airbnb last Christmas eve to see whats happening, jusko parang ghost town bihira ang tao considering dikit sa Venice Grand Canal Mall.. sa gabi bihira ang units ang may ilaw sa katapat na towers. Promise Ghost town feels tlga. Yung ginamit naming unit halatang not used for a very long time. Majority pa ng tao nakikita ko is halatang nag Airbnb lang din dahil Christmas season lang. Also, hindi ko na ulitin mag checkin dun ang mahal ng parking 600 overnight. Pero pag hotel free. Wala akong makitang bahid ng opportunity tlga..
@@ThinkingJames Developers built condos just to be occupied by "ghosts". Too expensive to buy as well as rents are sky high.
where did you found your condo?
as a filipino i thank you for your very honest oppinion in this topic, because the main stream media sugar coating this issue.
Spot on! This is just real talk instead of those so-called economists that are downplaying the market since they have their own self-interests in keeping the prices high. A correction needs to happen as the middle class cannot afford a home anymore. Remote work needs to be reinforced as well to keep healthy levels in the real estate market.
The philippines is now at the top 3 in asean in terms of economic growth and development. Kindly deepen your searches more so you can have the correct data and information regarding the country’s economy. These data are available on line and on govt channels such as ptv 4 and rtvm and on bbm’s instagram, you tube and fb accounts.
Finally, fyi..,middle class in the Philippines is very strong. They are the target buyers of these condo units other than the ofws and balikbayans or returning ofws. These developers are not stupid to put their investment on projects which they have not studied beforehand. Btw.. middle class here are those who have houses in private villages and buy condos for investment and for their extended families. They earn at least 100k up to 250k pesos a month and are executives in their companies and those who own small and medium sized businesses are also included in that category. You may think thst those people who have sari sri stores and fish / meat vendors in the local markets and in tondo manila are poor but hell, no. You would be surprised to find thise small store owners are better off than you and have millions of savings but do not flaunt their wealth because they are contented with simple living but spend their money wisely
Very true the oligarchs have no talent other than jacking up prices and/or shortchanging buyers with cheaper materials and labor, and unfinished amenities, etc.
Lee-Chiu. hahahaha
It costs at most 30k USD to build a tiny concrete shoe box in the sky with poverty wages and shit quality furnishings. The profits are in excess of 90%. This is obvious. A 50% price crash isn't going to stop the building. It is still a suckers price for would be buyers. The corrupt huge corporations are selling to the Filipino rich, not the OFWs. The Philippines has a corrupt business class with huge profits and poor business practices which is why the country is the worst value in Asia for tourists.
But these "genius" so called expats are experts...they know everything about the Philippines .... they're the only ones that can afford and the ofw's.
Shhh...they know best because they speak English with a foreign accent.
Correct. Huge dirty money flows into condo land banks. Moreover foreigners cannot own houses or land so are forced into condo scam
@@matrices3987 The land prices are also inflated plus the HOA doesn’t even own the land. So with the 50 year rule, the land owner can resell the land at any price and the condo owners are stuck at a pro-rata share whatever that number is.
The business class here literally own the politicians are are more powerful than them
Selling Price is rediculously high. Average Filipino earners cannot even afford a nipa hut.
Can they afford Pizza Hut?
Buyers are all overseas workers. Try and keep up.
@@1949cr Bad news-even OFWs are being hit hard by inflation and sky-high Col anywhere in the world, making investing in our own land difficult and almost nonsensical
@@pizzaearthpancakesandother2549 No we usually eat at Shakeys or Greenwich.
@@abepenamante5577 so , there are only local workers and ofw's? Where do u put the business and land owning classes in the Philippines?
CONDOS are toooo expensive in the Philippines. Oversupply true.
And even OFW's cannot afford it and foreigners too. OVERPRICING, different taxes etc etc, association dues. Problem with the structure, problem with the electric bills.
Its not only CONDOs even houses and lots, unbelievable prices. Who can afford it? Perhaps mostly corrupt people who don't earned their money by hardworks, druglords etc... we don't know??
Google search “Ponzi Scheme”. This is what’s currently happening in the Philippines.
Yep, foreigners said Malaysia and Thailand are cheaper and still have bigger space/room, while having better public transportation. They said our condominiums are overpriced because of POGO, they pay high, no more POGO, now it's oversupply.
OFW is a scam.
Rent, rent, rent. Owning a condo in the Philippines is folly
THEY WERE NOT made for tghe average filipinos. the ordinary filipinos were the farthest from their greedy greedy minds. those condos were made for the POGO's. so sorry.
PH's highest GDP export isn't OFW's or tourism, it's actually semiconductors which is the highest complexity export that currently exists. PH is set to be a benificiary of Taiwan diversifying production and the US Chips act making PH semiconductor production a key node in the move away from China.
Those condos weren’t worth the prices they were charging 5 years ago. Only a fool would purchase at today’s prices. When considering the quality and size of these condos the prices are grossly overpriced. It will be a crash!
A few things you're not getting about the Philippines. One is these developers are insanely rich, far more liquid than the government. Another is it's not a normal RE market by any stretch. Vendor finance on low deposits is standard practice. The default terms are written into the purchase contracts, there won't be any foreclosure auctions. Another is "OFW" is a specific program where the wages are way below lawful minimum wages in countries with normal trade laws. (They aren't buying any BGC condos).
Exactly this is not California,these developers have way deep pockets the only deal is a foreigner fire sale
if OFWs aren't buying condos, foreigners aren't buying them, regular Filipinos arent buying them, whos buying then?
@1776dougie migrant Filipino investors mainly (NOT OFW program)
@@1776dougie No one is actually buying these. The corporations are just squeezing every ounce they can from anyone daring enough to try. It’s a bit of a scam, honestly. Lmao
@@1776dougie it is a way rich politicians/drug lords hide their money
I agree with you 1000% I first noticed the greed after visiting mctan Island in 2023. I've been into real estate for over 30yrs and I was blown away at the prices there in cebu. The infrastructure is below the average living standards. Sure the condo buildings are nice but it's like parking a new Bently in a salvage yard of junk cars. Once you're outside the confines of the gated compound it's like wtf? The greed for foreign dollars have cast a sense of delusional ideas in the minds of the greedy developers who believe it ok to overcharge for the condos. I called this coming crash in 2023. It's impossible for this to sustain.
@@MRwaterlicious Also look straight down the window of many of these condominiums beachside or in the provinces and what do you see? Shack housing, slum living, roosters and old tricycle’s and poor folks struggling right next to your condo. I remember seeing this in Engano Lapu Lapu. Look out the window but not straight down. The same thing with Megaworld Festival Walk Condominiums in Iloilo.
The condo bubble already burst.
There’s already 60% oversupply of units.
The over inflated prices have become so unreasonable that no one is buying them.
The next bubble to burst is real estate in parts of metro Manila where POGO operators used to reside like Paranaque, Pasay. Same with Cavite (especially Tagaytay). 80% of housing there are up for sale and been sitting in the market for 2 years already.
It’s because these realtors price their listings way too high. We have no database of comparables that’s why sellers over inflate their selling price.
It’s so outrageously expensive that it cheaper to buy a property in the States.
Taguig BGC have least unoccupied unit while Ortigas have 18000 unoccupied units while QC have 60000
Only 1800 units in bgc unsold.. 😂😂😂😂
@brodixtv4993 It's actually 1,300 units or roughly 2 1/2 buildings. Go count the number of Buildings in BGC if you think that's an over supply
Whoa! How about makati? If I were to buy, there are only two places I’d consider: Gramacy or Venice Lux suites. Hehe.
Ortigas has 13500 approx, QC has 18800.BGC 1300 From where are you getting those numbers. 😂
There’s so many of that properties that will soon becomes empty because non of the local can afford that high price of living. Most OFW would rather own a land instead of getting stuck in that trendy ghettos.
Nailed it in the head... These corporations never learned from the US economy crashed back in 08... Right now, I'm gonna let my money grow through my 401K & stocks. When the right time comes up, its time to buy buy buy but definitely not a condo in Makati or BGC...
BGC / Real Estate in the Philippines isn’t an investment like we think of it in the West. The only benefit is use…You get to go back and forth to the same location…Manila isn’t a great city… BGC may be the nicest spot but it’s essentially fake…Its a private developer that made essentially a Philippines Beverly Hills, it’s not representative of the overall state of the city or stability.
Made in toxic China materials for condo construction have made Manila condos unsafe to live in. For example, toxic radioactive sheet rocks, tiles that causes fibrosis of the lungs. These are but a tiny sample of why the developers have used inferior Chinese materials at the buyer's expense.
Source? That’s quite an alarming thing to say without any evidence
Why blame China? It's the cheap landlords and Filipino development firms that are poisoning people - choosing to buy the worst of the worst products. I've lived in China in apartments 1/5th the cost of a BGC condo that have good quality materials, albeit a simple design with no amenities. It's a choice of the developer. They can buy good quality materials, from China or elsewhere, or they can buy the worst of the worst from China or India and poison their customers.
@@jerryppih source: trust me bro
Proof?
BS ..... likely caused by very poor local builders & workers without any skill or proper training.
Well said brother. Dammmm, u speak the truth.
To those who claim that condo prices would rise later for better return, u just parked your 300k USD or more and not even getting 1% ROI. And that pure stupidity as an investor
Having leased a condo in McKinley West for 1 year my wife and I were blown away by the number of unoccupied condos. In addition quite a few units were owned by folks who had never occupied or even rented their units. So we were the first renters of their unit. When I asked why they bought the unit in the first place they said it was an investment and they hoped to flip it for a profit. Unfortunately every other unit in the building had the same idea, so competition was tough and they now needed to rent the unit to help with their condo mortgage asap. Long story short we bargained them down to what we felt was a fair monthly rent.
Buying a condo as an investment for lease is not a good idea these days. It will take at least 10 years or more before your ROI or return on investment or unless you're into buy and sell with a great salestalk.
Chinese will buy up the empty condos
@@jhunocampo4310 Agreed, I think quite a few folks are just figuring that out now, unfortunately......
@@Ncollins99 if some one invested 6-5 years ago, then yes its almost 3x ROI, but after covid, price just skyrocketed.. people could not sell their condos at current price... alot waitng for the bubble for bargain discount condos defaulting... unless building developers has rites to buy first....somethings afoot alot of speculation as of late.
@@mjfab74 we saw something similar down south with land. Many 10 year old gated communities with ALL the lots sold and maybe only three or four homes actually built. Looked like a place to park your cash ‘if’ you believe that there would be good equity after a number of years.
The condo developers and investors avoid talking about PHILIPPINES 🇵🇭 CONDO CRASHED ISSUES 😂😂😂😂😂
I'm an investor. Only idiots like you think we're panicking because you want us to fall to your miserable level. Misery loves company
Yes it is over supply for 2 year's. After that there will be a rise again. This is the good time to buy now 😂
@@j.r.6517 not yet one more year baba pa ang real estate prices kc wala buyers
What I noticed/learned while renting a condo for a month in BGC. The 33rd floor I was on in this 3 year old condominium was a ghost town. I would go days not seeing anyone on the entire floor. There would a handful of people in the lobby of the building on Friday night, but still very few people and maybe one family on my entire floor besides me on a weekend.
I would speak to the man who was in charge of building short term rentals (day/week). One day I asked him what the deal was not seeing anyone on my floor. He told me people bought on speculation and things have been over built/sold. He told me a year lease 3 years ago was going for a 1,000Php peso a sqm (45 sqm equaled 45K per month). Today, if the buyer/speculator can find someone, it's at between 800-900 per sqm or 36K-40.5k p/m on an annual lease. The short term rental manager further told me the buyers of the units had to refurbish at 3 years because of the initial poor quality.
I jokingly said to the man 'So you wouldn't recommend buying a unit'. He replied not unless you want sakit ng ulo (a headache).
There’s really a surplus of high-end condos and lack of low-end affordable condominiums.
The Philippine property market is fairly well compartmentalized in that banks are extremely cautious on handing out mortgages. Defaults do happen and will continue to happen as we head into the uncertainties of a post-POGO world and a slowdown in the global economy. This price correction in the property market would probably be very tame and might not be as severe simply because the owners or buyers of these condos are spread out around the world. One economy might be booming while others are struggling. It's not gonna be a domino effect as many would hope it would be to snag a good bargain.
Agree, and as mentioned the developers have their own banks, nothings stopping them from just restructuring their debts til kingdom come
AI is going to take a big bite out of the BPO industry. More pain ahead! 13:46
Anyone who buys a unit almost twice the proce of another adjacent apartment older by a few years only, it will not end well when the bubble starts to blow up. An example would be the Shore Residences at MOA.
It's overinflated, the bubble would pop really soon.
You can say the same about USA. People have been saying this since 2007. Heybe printed way too much money. It will fall but not soon enough.
10 years ive heard this
lol noob take GEN Z.. maybe you dont have experience in real estate
Average Philippinos on $10,000 USD per year can't afford $500,000-$750,000 USD apartments. I think greedy supplier of funds (banks, REITs, , Investment funds) would need to worry if they're chasing perpetual returns since the oversupply could lead to asset impairment if the apartments not sold. Alternatively they can just rent out the apartments.
Honestly its WAYYYY overpriced in Philippines. I was looking for Condos for 500K USD and I was APPALLED by the poor selection of condos and the kitchens were SOO SMALL. For 500K USD you can get a BEAUTIFUL PENTHOUSE in Colombia in MEDELLÍN AND BOGOTÁ with a lot of SQUARE FOOTAGE and beautiful large kitchens and the standard of living is better than the Philippines. I hope there's a HUGE correction so the ordinary FILIPINO can AFFORD a home there.
I went and looked at a couple condos in Newtown 2 years ago and there were units that had been on listings for 4 years.
What location is vgc?🤷♂️or is it bgc?
I did not think the article was talking about condo building turnover? Maybe I mis-read it. It's ALWAYS about selling price, right now the Manila condos are WAY overpriced. If a seller lets his condo for a "market fair" price, it will likely sell quicker than most out there (condition and location aside). BGC will draw a premium price but the market will ultimately decide what the price is.
I was in the Philippines last and have notice a lot of condominiums and still continue to build and wonder who’s gonna buy all this unit, majority of the Filipinos working abroad are not rich. I’m predicting that there will be a real state collapse in the Philippines sometime in the future.
Hit 240k today Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in September 2024
No crash will happen, maybe a 10% drop at most over the next 12 months.
It is already, but most filipino like me doesnt care, its out of our league.
It's just like in Canada, the citizens can't afford a home.
The 3x price increase in the past 5 years is the safety net for the developers and it's the reason the construction rate is up. The construction costs are essentially the same and the land investment is practically irrelevant when it comes to condos.
There's no crash coming.
I would love continuing updates on the condo market in BGC. There is another vlogger there in BGC saying some of the same things, but he’s such a pompous A-hole, it’s hard to listen to his videos.
Is it Brian the Lion or something. I can't remember his name.
Firstly, it can be challenging to discuss serious topics like the economy and lifestyle, especially in casual settings like the street.
Secondly, Mergim, I've been following your work since your initial comparison between Thailand and the Philippines. I must say, you've done a great job with your in-depth report on the condo market situation in the Philippines. Kudos to you, my friend-keep up the great work!
I hope to see you covering a wide range of topics soon.
Mergim -- How do the prices look (?) - AND - rental price for fully furnished studios in Eastwood City ? More people can afford it there - but very curious if many (?) units are available & still prices @ about $320/mo. ? How is the infrastructure there ? 🤔
Very honest review about Philippines real estate bubbles.
NOT Condo crash but Plane Crash in South Korea a few hours ago.
You are more aware of this problem than locals here.
Well articulated view on real estate market conditions in Philippines.
Keep "em coming!
China 🇨🇳 property market has crashed 50% in the last 2 to 3 years which is a problem for the Philippines 🇵🇭 because about 50% of property investment pre pandemic 😷 was Chinese 🇨🇳 foreigners are mostly renters so who is buying these condos now 🙀
Good stuff, please keep posting content like this, the REAL situation in the Ph in a foreign perspective
first video I've ever seen from you, you're quite grounded and i find that your take is the most realistic from all the others I've seen about this issue, well done
These developers have far more money than the government. They ARE the government. It's the major families who run the Philippines, and they will never run out of cash. You are right that the price of condos (for sale or for rent) are going to come down because Marcos sent the Pogos home and so now there are very few renters, but there will never be a risk of any of the developers going broke.
Do you think that the poor Filipino people will pay for the debt of these rich developers? They will be hunted by the Filipino people. Anyway according to ABS CBN news there is an oversupply of condos in metro Manila and breakdown is Quezon city - 18,000 units, Bay area- 10,000, Ortigas - 8,000 , Makati 4,000 . BGC is out of the list. I think it is time for BBM to regulate the number of condo construction in the country or make more office buildings because there is more demands for office buildings in the country.
Developers have a weird layout of their condos making more units per buildings in such a small room for an artificially inflated prices as if the Philippines have a land supply problem like in Hong Kong then it would be understandable to make a building where it can house more units but developers did this since they taught they can sold each of the units and get away with the profits but in reality the condos they build are empty and that's what they get from being greedy.
Btw you forgot to mention that the Philippines have the highest labor tax in South East Asia.
I also agree with you that Filipinos should upskill but with the current 1987 constitution that stipulated 60%-40% ownership of business (Filipino 60%/Foreign 40%) tends to make investors shy away from investing in the Philippines given with the poor infrastructure and corruption in establishing a business. That's why most of the Filipino companies here are service oriented industries majority of which are the BPO companies.
I've heard that those ownership restrictions have been changed recently, and now foreigners can own 100%, if I'm not mistaken. Perhaps it has to do with this issue.
60-40 is easily bypassed and isn't even the biggest problem, it's just a red herring, it's easily dealt with by complex ownership structures.
The biggest problem is high electricity cost (low fossil fuel reserves, island geography, weak investments on renewables, no nuclear power generation) and corruption (self-explanatory).
@1776dougie thanks for also mentioning this
Mergim -- From what I can gather from the comments, I made the following conclusion:
>> Limited Ownership: Condominiums cater to wealthier segments, not the average Filipino.
>> Focus on Affordability: Most Filipinos prioritize affordable housing over high-end condos.
>> Economic Resilience: Other key sectors like agriculture and BPOs buffer the broader economy.
>> Potential Rent Benefits: A crash could make urban living more affordable for renters.
Philippine policymakers could significantly expand the economy by adopting "inclusive economic development," a strategy successfully implemented by neighbouring ASEAN countries. Unfortunately, political personalities and name recognition often hold greater sway with the voting public than substantive and progressive policy ideas, hindering long-term economic progress.
Great video Mergim, we went South, looking at purchasing land in Luzon. I am about to put out a video about issues with (Filipino), land purchases, that we witnessed.
Keep up the good work!
CJC Three
Foreigners are not allowed to buy and own land in the Philippines! So, why are you talking about buying land in Luzon?
@ if you actually read my comment, I said (Filipinos), in my specific case my wife of 40 years marriage is a Filipina.
I personally disagree with the BPO take,
While it does not pay rly high, it is still a source of revenue for the govt
and having seen the manufacturing salaries, they even pay WAY LESS than the BPO side.
High end manufacturing may pay better in the end BUT they require some convincing from investors to manufacture here which currently they are hesitant because of the exorbitant prices of energy costs here.
If the Government remove the BPO here, the countries that gives the jobs will just outsource elsewhere like for example in India.
The gambling side like pogo, Im fine with that to be removed but the other jobs field is good.
Ai gonna really hit bpo hard
@@sentimentalboy81I agree with the blogger’s assessment of the condo situation in the Philippines and, BGC, in particular. I have been looking into buying a condo unit in the BGC area but decided against it because I find the price too high, unrealistic and unjustifiable even though affordability is not an issue. In my personal opinion, I’m much better off buying a real estate investment in the U.S., especially in the Silicon Valley because selling in the future won’t be problem at all. It’s quite the opposite situation pretty much everywhere else in the Philippines including BGC: very easy to buy but extremely difficult to unload due thousands of unsold real estate properties constantly flooding the market. For this reason, I have been on the fence unable to find justification for buying a condo unit at such an exorbitant price with suspect build-quality. I also did research and found out that there are literally thousands of condos for sale throughout the Philippines, including basically thousands of units unsold in BGC alone. Many of the condos sit on the market unsold for years.
Therefore, there’s definitely an over supply of condo units in the Philippines, including BGC. At what point is the unsustainable price of real estate market in the Philippines going to crash is not a matter of IF but WHEN. It will be bloody and ugly when it finally happens. I might finally decide to scoop up a condo unit in BGC at a discount or bargain basement price that I’m comfortable with. But really, time is on my side as I’m in no hurry.
OFWs are not the target market. BGC is just too expensive for the average OFW.
There aren’t as many foreigners visiting or moving the php compared to several years ago. The allure isn’t there anymore.
If you want to talk about Condo crash, it's in Malaysia and Thailand that's why the rents there are VERY LOW compared to Manila. 😊
Dude do your basics.
@florian483 yes, that's the basic fact you should know. 😊
Prices in Thailand and Malaysia are quite normal. Philippines is 50% overpriced.
True😂
@@VittoShulman they are not normal because they're way below 6 percent annual interest rate 😊
Also this bloke doesn't understand that of the $40-50 billion USD received in taxes and marked for gov expenditure each year, probably a third of that expenditure is pilfered by corrupt bureaucrats and politicians which is then poured into real estate. There are financial laws and constraints which prevent that pilfered money from being invested aboard and so it's trapped in the Philippines, boosting the condo market irrationally. Hence the lack of infrastructure spending, a lot of those potential infra funds are pocketed by the politicians. The market is corrupted money from politicians and bureaucrats who likely pocket a $1million USD or $2 mil every year. There are around 19,000 bureaucrats and politicians who pocket around that much each year. The buyers of these condo's are not working class people or even foreigners / OFW's, it's the corrupt bureaucratic and politician class with millions of dollars each.
Why would anyone buy? Perhaps they like get getting surprise bills they don't understand. Just rent for less and move when you feel like it.
As of last year, Bangkoks over-supply of apts/condos dwarfed that of Manila. Yet amazingly prices have held firm if not risen in 2024. I guess demand from foreigners as well as middle class Thais with a higher GDP than Phil sort of mitigates the problem.
Because there is less demand in Thailand hence prices dont rise up plus the fact that their population is small and yet its an aging population meaning not many new generations that will work and fuel their economy in the future. Very few number of future “buyers” of estates.
Really,? I started the purchase of a condo in chiang Mai ten years ago. But decided not to complete. Just checked the second hand price. And it is the same now as 10 years ago
@manijj4j52 google thailand gdp vs philippines. Also Thais per capita income much higher than PH. And thats the more relevant part.
You are correct, Thailand is much richer than the Philippines. In the Philippines, there is no middle class, only rich and everyone else
Buying condos is stupid. Renting condos and buying a house are the only options. Never get fooled by sellers that units are sold out it is just a scam to fool you.
Are you married to a Filipino? You can’t buy a home if you’re a foreigner.
@@stevem437 when you are married you still cant buy a home!
Dude did his research quite well. Quality content today, Merg.
I agree with this guy. The Phils is not what it use to be. The Phils has lost is glammor. many of the guys that moved there are getting old an passing on. Plus many other variables are involved. Samething is taking place in Cebu. Question? Why move to the Phils to live within the exact same enviorment that we have here being in the city. The reality is the Phils is much to Westernized, and its turning people off. It use to be reasonable to live there. But now the costs are very simular to the West.
I almost bought a condo unit near MOA as an investment. 7M php 15 years to pay. Thank god my finance brain was still working because I cannot reconcile how should I earn profit from it if I put it on Airbnb. I would pay around 45k in mortgage exclusive of int. I just knew immediately that the bank would earn at least 2m on interest. Crazy! I need to earn at least 75k a month on rent to cover all cost including mortgage. I don't believe I will earn that on Airbnb a month unless it's a long term rental but I knew only foreigners can afford it. 90% of population can't afford a condo. You gotta be realistic as an ofw. I am just happy to decline the investment. The broker got irritated with me with all my questions. I am happy I kept asking questions. 7mPhp is almost a downpayment for me here to buy a house & lot in europe. Better to buy a house & lot in PH than a condo. Even a developed lot is better already. Most filipinos would buy that than a condo.
Foreigners can't own land in the Philippines! So what are you talking about?
It’s not that it takes that long to sell a whole building. It’s when a condo goes on the market it takes that long to sell that unit.
Agree. The forecast for the next 5-10 years sounds like cheaper rents and beer prices holding steady! 🙀
I hope so. They're all overinflated and the prices developers are putting up are ridiculous. I'd like to set up a base there but I'd rather go for foreclosures and flash sales because you never know what type of admin those new buildings would get. We bought an SM Light unit nearby but the cockroaches there are notoriously bad and elevators were so slow it takes 30mins to even get out. I heard some similar stories with the maybe med-lower end projects. High-end are just overpriced for very little benefit.
I purchased condos 6 months ago with delivery in December 2031. Even got a 20% discount as a cash buyer. Exclusive location in BGC. I guess all I can do is sit back and wait 😊
You fell for it? Lol
You shouldn’t have done that.
oh oh hmmm😢
7 years out?
Are you sure?
@teeh7125 Yes, it only recently started the foundations. It's marketed as one of the most upscale condo towers in BGC. It will be the tallest building in BGC. Megaworld realty is behind the project. A trusted company in the Philippines
Not trying to scare everyone but this is always in the back of my mind, maybe because i was traumatized with my experience when I was a child in Manila in 68 . Seem like everyone have forgotten that Philippines is in the Pacific "Ring Of Fire" zone. One nasty earthquake and the Condo Business in the Philippines is dead. I hope and pray that we will never ever have to experience the big one. But last year, two major earthguakes with 6.8 and a 7.4 magnitude hit the southern part of Philippines. The country also records an average of 20 earthquakes per day. I am hoping those buildings are earthquake proof that can withstand a massive quake. If not, God help us all! I am in the market of my retirement home but for this reason, I will never buy a Condo nor live around high risers.
California and Washington are part of that Ring of Fire
Ruby Tower? ❤
@@dancampana6757 Yes!
@@dancampana6757 Yes!
You got a point. I was in the Philippines just last January and I got worried about people living on this high rise condo unit if there will be an earthquake, my cousin died in that Miami building collapsed and not even cause by an earthquake.
it's normal for real estates to only sell out upto 80% of their units
Exactly. Construction usually start once 70% of units are presold
Nice info Mergim! I am an expat from NYC and would like to live in BGC someday. I am a musican who plays drums and guitars, is there a soundproof music room in most BGC condo where I can practice/play my loud instruments for a fee?
There was a report 2 days ago that there are 67,000 empty condos in the the Manila area.
Very short answer, no. Home prices and apartment prices worldwide should be crashing. Within a 10 minute drive there are over 100 vacant units, prices haven't come down much. They should be 50% lower already.
Cambodia and Thailand condos are 1/3 the price and are much larger and nicer. Ph condo market is the biggest and the most FOMO pumped up market I have ever seen. It is total absurd. I can pick up a one bedroom in Canada for less money than in the PH, rent it out and the difference after all fees and taxes will give me almost unlimited rental options here. Why on earth would I ever buy anything here?
Did you buy in Cambodia, Thailand, or Canada? If you did, how's the ROI?
@@LAXAMAND I did not buy anything. I am renting a 5 year old condo in a very prestigious business area in the Philippines. I am looking to buy in Cambodia but for one year I will be here in the Ph. Thailand is nice too but Thai Visa is a total night mare unless you have 135K USD to blow on a 20 year ellite. Cambodia has the easiest visa in the world.
It will only affect those who built these useless, tight, shoe box room called condos. People are not dumb, they will not buy these sorry excuse of a room called condos. Greed will come back and bite them back.
I have friends or friends-of-friends who are nurses/ engineers/ programmers abroad. They buy condo units as part of their retirement plans. The condos are also their home-base whenever they fly in for vacations.
Agree with you though, some developers are being greedy, not taking care of their clients. There’s a recent vlog from the Kito Family channel complaining about the quality of the condo that they have purchased. This gives a bad reputation to Philippine condos in general 😢
Actually based on latest statistics, BGC has only 1,800 unsold units.
The lowest in Metro Manila.
Quezon city is the highest with over 20,000 units unsold.
I'd bet that the actual number of vacancies is higher than reported and scarcity is being hyped to raise prices for profit and other reasons...
Pogos jacked up rental prices of condos. Now that they're gone, prices are now free falling, which can be a good thing so that more locals can afford to buy one. But even if the prices go down, locals are probably not the target market, but ofws and foreigners who want to invest or retire. But even ofws are considering buying houses in the provinces, and foreigners are going somewhere else with better prices and return of investment such as Thailand or Vietnam. With no one buying or renting condos, they're just dead assets, and another evergrande situation is waiting in the local real estate market. Even as a local, i don't think buying a condo in metro is worth your money lmao
What about foreigners who just want to live in a glass luxury condo on the 35th floor, feeling like you're urban and sophisticated and a recluse, with no neighbours, just focusing on your books and computer
On point - appreciate your analysis!
Condo prices are ridiculously high and the unit sizes are super small. The financing system is not very foreigner friendly. Locals get 15yr loans and foreigner are required to pay in 5 yrs
It reminds me about, miami florida and portland, oregon when i was there 4 years ago. But, BGC IS ALWAYS THE BEST
Another issue is Philippines not allowing foreigners from buying land.
Which in turns doesn’t allow them to invest more into the Philippines
Its a crash. The developers are just greedy
Crash or no crash, it's best not to expect anything to change. 😂
When everything's hyped up, people here generally become irrational about property, and prices tend to skyrocket.
Reality only bites when the properties get foreclosed. But probably not in BGC or Makati. Those who can afford property there will have the deep pockets to hang on to their units for generations.
People are suckers for prestige. 😅😂🤣
What is "turning over" mean? Conversion from single owner of the building ro single unit sales? Just curious since you keep using the term
Yes, I believe there are over supply of condos in the Philippines. I bought my condo in 2010. The condo building I'm in now is only 40% occupied. It's 30 storey-high. Each floor has 23 units. Sadly, more & more condos are built every day.
40% is rather high occupancy!
The elephant in the room is the global debt $303 trillion in debt. The only thing the economy is chugging along is the U.S as a reserve currency has the ability to print money and that too is running out of time when U.S government defaults and services grinds to a halt. When the consumer stop spending in general cars or homes, the economy tanks think about 1929 depression and 2007 it just a matter of time.
We've been hearing about that for 20 years
The global debt? What planet do we owe money to?
@@stevem437The man in the moon, and he's calling his debt in soon
@@stevem437 Well steve if i met you someday and offer you in my hand and on my left is a gold nugget and in my right hand is a $50 dollars in a brief case what would you choose? If you pick the right answer i would happily give you the "RED PILL" just like Morpheus in the Matrix.
@@stevem437 Well steve if i was Wells Fargo, i'm the first one to sell you properties in Florida no money down.
I've lived in Davao over a year, seeing the market flooded with condos and the prices keep going up. They don't know the rule of holes: when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. They keep raising prices and building, mark up is insane. Keep in mind, Davao isn't a huge expat city, but they build like think it is. Studio condos that should be 2m list for 4 to 8m (this is a much cheaper market), units that should be 10m, they ask 20-30, and you see the same ads and no turnover. Most of the existing are less than 50% sold, even after many years. Many of the sold units are airbnb, not residents, so the actual number of buyers who actually live there is probably closer to 5-10% of the units built, at most. Yes, I'm waiting for a major correction.
There are different variables to take into account. One : is new units available . Two: Are existing units that are being sold by previous owners or repossession. Third : is the units that haven't been built yet but are looking for deposits. We saw what happened in China with their real estate crash and hundreds of people losing their investment. Air b&b and rental units are going to be on the rise, and the prices are going to drop . $50k dollars seems to be the starting price because the developers know that the minimum for an srrv investment is $50k dollars, and that is for a very small studio unit . The Filipinos are very patient people and will sit on these units until they get what they are asking for.
if the avg salary in Manila is 40-50K then the studio rent should not be more than 12-15K a month, but i see the studios or 1BR;s are going for 40-60K in BGC area, who and how the people are able to afford these rent in Manila? To pay a rent of 50-60K a month you need to have atleast 250k-300K income, is it what people earn in Manila? I am not from Philippines, so your input is welcome
They are catering to expats, not to Filipinos. And btw average salary in Manila is 20-30k, 40-50k is a bit higher than average
Why would I buy a unit in BGC if I can rent it for $30 a day?
If you have not done it yet, would love to see you do an analysis on Eastwood, an amazing place also. If/When the Pesos crashes harder, let's say 100 pesos/USD, that will be a great time to pick up some condos there :) peace.
I really hope our politicians in the Philippines are listening. Excellent points of concerns were addressed in this video.
The. Prices of condos in Manila. Skyrocketed due to the. Call center phenomenon.. they will be occupied.
Developers should not slow down.
We still have a lot of unmet demand.
They should lower the price to the average pay for the area/district.
When it spirals downward, I hope it reaches back to 2 years' average salary.
Many hold for as long as possible; study says over 3 years, but there will be a limit.
Can't hold on to a property no one wants to buy at market price forever.
When it begins, it will be a quick race to sell or downward pressure to sell.
When you have even their own politicians saying saying there is a massive over supply and the quality is terrible plus lack of maintenance I don't understand the prices. Thankfully we can buy land and build.
Another thing many forget is that they base the price compared to first word country where construction highly regulated, worker salary is very expensive. They need insurance. All steps are inspected thoroughly... They want the same price without any of that.
I'm renting a 2br up North here in Clark. Sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the CRASH to buy 3br next year.
What’s the web site to check these properties
Big players like Ayala Land don’t drop their prices. They’re in for the long haul, and they have tons of cash. Maybe they’ll offer a longer payment term on the deposit, but that’s it. Ayala has better money managers and smarter people than the Philippine government