The Porsche 911 Carrera Market Froze | Correction Incoming?
Вставка
- Опубліковано 24 лют 2024
- Buyers who were hoping for an enormous market correction during 2023 got disappointed. Porsche 911 Carreras are still selling for top dollar and this trend continues as we enter 2024.
Follow me on Instagram
/ fourwheeltrader
Contact me
fourwheeltrader@gmail.com
More market analyses
Porsche: • Porsche depreciation a...
Ferrari: • Ferrari depreciation a...
McLaren: • McLaren depreciation a...
Audi: • Audi depreciation anal...
Quarterly car market updates: • Car market deep dives
We saw that 911 carrera prices froze during last year. Prices came down by an average rate of -1.8% and changes fluctuated between roughly -4% and +0.5% per generation. This is significantly different from the rest of the market.
Patience, however, might be rewarded. We saw that cars were selling slower for the first time since February last year and this potentially could mark the start of weaker prices.
Of course, this trend breach in the unsold inventory by no means guarantees that prices will actually start to come down. That’s not the message here. The message is that there is one small indication that prices could start to soften slightly and that we didn’t see any of these during last year. Yet, it could just as well be a false alarm.
Disclaimer: The Content is for educational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this video constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any cars. The information published has been obtained from or is based on sources which are believed to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable care has been taken, the completeness and the accuracy of any information published cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions may be wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any purchase decision. - Авто та транспорт
*More market analyses*
Porsche: ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66dKJQug4xwskaR8tqUEtg_i.html
Ferrari: ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66fjX4_e99Lu5gN2rlOtBhrE.html
McLaren:ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66dlx4PN9VpM2-gSLKB0WVFn.html
Audi: ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66fTWOIizW1gGdyJNvxyLXNm.html
Mercedes: ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66fljQWz7PVLNUiggjZ5FGv_.html&si=3dyHoeOeVE4c1uR5
Chevrolet: ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66c-lJQmVKZ_mEKWaln3CcRH.html&si=V-CHGuBXNecc3OZp
General car market updates: ua-cam.com/play/PLkx3WmwEN66eE4KxbIXZHxMf637v0CsVy.html
People in the know about Porsche know that there is no substitute. Porsche owners stay Porsche owners, and they usually upgrade, like me. Unless you have a lot of Porsche owners not staying with the brand, then prices will stay where they are. I don't see a significant drop in prices on pre-owned Porsches because supply is fairly limited. A base 992 is currently starting at $116,050 and with some general options, you are looking at $125,000. The price increase on a new base brings up the prices on a used base 992, because there just aren't that many out there. And, you can't get a better car for the money. What other car with ONLY 379 horsepower, gives you a 0 to 60 time of 3.2 seconds? None. That's one of the reasons I upgraded from my Cayman GTS 4.0 manual to a base 992 with Sport Chrono and PDK. I love my 911, and I don't believe "the sky is falling" rhetoric and I don't see the bottom falling out of the Porsche market, ever. Just my opinion.
Thanks for the continued analysis, I see some negative comments occasionally from people that don’t seem to understand the volatility and uncertainty of what you do and I wanted to make sure to add another voice on the other side of that. Your content is excellent.
Agreed. Harald’s analyses are fantastic. I’ve noticed he went from a Saturday afternoon (2 pm EST for me) to a Sunday afternoon release. My afternoon coffee schedule is different, but still as enjoyable and is always a good addition to my weekend.
Thanks for the kind words. Your support is appreciated.
Thanks Kyle. Saturday is still the default release day. If the video goes live on Sunday it means that I didn't manage to finish it on time 😬.
It’s astonishing how well these 911s hold value. Superb cars.
Another home run review... I am going to try and forward your link to more friends, you deserve to have 100k followers!
Thanks, it is much appreciated.
Thanks for the link/update. From what I am seeing and your latest analysis seems to confirm is the 997.2 GTS is solid and should be moving forward, at least I hope so. Low mileage, well maintained, CPO whether PDK or MT is where I would park my cash and did. Keep up the great job!
Thanks for your analysis.
Although I don’t have conducted any detailed analysis like you did, clearly the carried over inventory is also increasing in Italy.
Asking prices are decreasing by 1 or 2% approx after the first 3 months cars sit on the lot and the number of new 992 available has never been so high.
The market is not crashing at all but nowadays a buyer has definitely more options to choose from.
Analytical, insightful, honest and unbiased. TY.
Best news ever... from the car market perspective.
One thing that you mentioned but would like to add is regarding the 991.1 and 991.2 models. From your graphs, it shows that the 991 models are finally at or a little below the price they were pre-pandemic which is crazy when you think about it because it means that in 4 years of use the cars have barely depreciated. In 2020, the 991 were newer and still about the same price as they are now which really tells me that the car market is still overinflated and will continue the trend downwards as things go back to the normal that was pre-pandemic pricing.
Edit: The graph I am talking about includes numbers that are inflation adjusted.
You’re not considering inflation and the devaluation of the US Dollar
Inflation also has a role to play in the values
Certainly, for the 991 i included the inflation adjusted numbers.
Maybe not as inflated as you might think. These were inflation adjusted numbers, and as you know, inflation has been very high. This means that the capital and labor costs to build the 2024 units is much greater than the pre-pandemic costs. This infers that 911s depreciate slightly faster than the rate of inflation, which means they are steal compared to many other vehicle options
There are 1400 991's for sale on autotrader in the US right now. That's a lot of supply. I think it has to start putting downward pressure on those cars. The 997 is only about 600.
As posted above the GTS 997.2 rwd market will be not only enjoyable to drive but for free at worst.
Great update.. hoping to see Panamera charts next! 😊
Good work. Thank you!
Enjoy your videos. What data do you examine to determine how long cars have been on sale?
Fantastic as usual well done. Do you believe that the GT specifically 997 market will follow the same trend?
Love the data and visuals. Whether it’s Porsches or real estate, we won’t see any major shifts unless the fed drastically shifts interest rates. OR when people start losing their jobs (mass layoffs).
Great content thank you
981 GT4 and 718 GT4 would be awesome!
Great job. I enjoy your channel. I have been trying to decide between the 911 991.1 2016 and Mercedes AMG GT 2018 Base. Which one would you recommend based on reliability?
Macan GTS, with the EV on the way, this model would benefit from a thorough deep analysis
Looking to buy a GT3 in the next month or two. Can't tell you how helpful these videos have been when doing my research. Thank you.
If I recall, vinwiki just had a gt car person...that is someone you can reach out to.
Still riding a minor bump from the pandemic in my 991.2 Targa 4S. In at 122k and still over 130 at retail, while enjoying 10k in miles over the last four years. Gonna keep it.
Of course it depends on mileage and condition but I am starting to see a larger delta for 991.2 GT3s asking prices with some still in the $195-205K but others from $170-185k. My theory is that people overpaid over the past few years and aren’t willing or able to sell their cars due to being upside down. Those that didn’t sell during the peak of the GT3 market might now be running into to financial distress or simply want to move on so this subset is more realistic and are listing these cars at the lower end of the range, because they can. Will be interesting to watch.
Appreciate the update! Seems I picked up my 991.1 at the right time; about 6 months ago! They seem to be trending with standard depreciation, if a tad less. The real question now, at least for me, where do they bottom? I don't plan on selling. But I'm always fascinated by markets, so I enjoy trying to predict them. 991.1s are disliked versus 997.2s, but I think they'll stand up well against anything newer. If true, I don't think they'll sink as low as the 996s (accounting for inflation), or as far out in time. I'm guessing they'll bottom in the $45k range, probably in the next 5-8 years. We'll see!
Would it be possible that the slow in sales for 992 was due to model itself? I see a number of people who upgrade to 992 from 991 switching back to 991 after a year or two, which possibly cause the relative steady price in 991 series, especially on 991.2.
Boxster/spyder cayman market
Would like to see a Panamera update as well as Ferrari 612 (which seems to go missing when you do Ferraris and V12s).
Great vid
There’s A LOT of noise and questionable info out there in regard to the 911 market but I believe what’s presented here is pretty accurate, at least in the US. I’ve been shopping for a 991.2 C4S coupe for about a year and just pulled the trigger on one about a week ago. I followed prices down, they seemed to bottom out, inventory nationwide of C4S coupes (non-cab, non-targa) dried up pretty significantly, and now prices seem to be holding very firm, if not creeping back up just slightly. I was also told by a Porsche Center GM that owners are trading in their 992s for pre-owned 991.2s, which would also jive with the data presented here. Feels like while 992 values may continue coming down, 997s and 991s will likely hold pretty firm. Then again, who really knows?!?! 🤣 Just pleased as punch to finally own one of these amazing machines. Thanks for the informative video. 👍
May I ask where you source your data?
992 base went up like 20k since launch here in the US. 97k-117k
Yea these videos talking about the prices going down aren't talking about in the US thats forsure
This video covers the US market. Prices can be above msrp but still decrease. In the case of the 992, however, they were stable during last year.
@@fourwheeltrader I'm looking on autolist and cargurus all the time and I don't see any major changes at all on 992 911s. It should be coming though since the 992.2s are coming later this year
@@user-my4xu4gf1z Seems about right, as you can see in the video, prices were very stable.
i believe that we're (in the US) seeing the market soften a little, especially for base and S 992s...i am also noticing that CPO cars are hanging around a little longer and dealers are dropping the price on them after 30+ days or so. i have also noticed an uptick of private sellers which indicates to me that they are not getting the $$$ out of their trades. just my opinion though
Have you taken into account of the 911 all stuck at US distribution port centers because of use of the parts embargo and U.S. Customs stoping dealership delivery.
@fourwheeltrader how does this compare to your recent Boxster video where you said it’s a good time to buy? Seems odd they would move in opposite directions, no?
The boxster video showed that boxsters lost less than the market average and that it could be a good moment to buy because you could benefit from the winter dip. If there would be a correction in the complete market, i still expect them to lose less than the average. However, as i mention in the video, a change in one indicator does not guarantee that such a drop will actually occur.
Thank god, let them prices fall
Did you watch the video?
Why would you want your 911 to fall?
@@danhall5761Probably because he’s waiting to buy one at a discount.
They're going to fall a lot
@@danhall5761unnaturally low depreciation isn't good for buying used because eventually the bottom will fall out. I've talked many people out of buying used 911s. Most moved to other vehicles entirely. Porsche has literally poisoned the well.
When you look at pricing do you consider as the cars get older the mileage also increases?
Yes, but sometimes i break it down further to evaluate the price trends within a certain mileage category.
911 prices are vastly different between pdk cars and manuals. I'd suggest drill deeper into splitting the transmission then we can see a very different picture.
Price levels are different among transmission types but the trends are for the common models, in general, not significantly different. That is, they are shifted in parallel. I did a complete video on this a while ago, you can find it in the Porsche playlist on my channel.
I'm sure the anticipation for the 992.2 is causing some slowdown of the 911s. I know I have been hesitant to buy a new 911 due to that.
very cheap compare to french Porsche sale market. Add +60.000 usd to see what I mean 😮
Ty 4 the video btw
The slower car sales has more to do with all the 911s and other models stuck at port due to chip US customs issue. Don’t think the prices will soften. In fact Porsche will probably raise prices in response to their slowed sales and strong purchasing power of consumers.
I see you used $ (USD) . are the talking a global averages of cars sold and prices or just in the US?
The video only covers the US market. I will add the German one in the second half of this year.
Definitely doesn’t include UK and Europe. 911 prices have been in free fall for the last 6 months.
@@cp4512the US needs 6 months and it'll be worse here
I do think there are some folks waiting for the 992.2.
Agree with you and it will be interesting to see the price action on 992.1
Lots of uncertainty with 992.2 engines now, and most hate the digital gauges (me included) and the new vertical slat grilles - I think the exterior and interior are a downgrade. I think 992.1's with manual will hold well (I am hoping as I have a Carrera T manual), with the hybrids incoming that means those powertrains will not allow for manual so there will be even fewer 911's available to row your own gears.
@@MrSchn3ll I don’t disagree. I currently have a ‘22 C2S Cab manual with over 40,000 miles on it. I ordered a ‘24 C2S Cab manual so I can have one for the long haul. We don’t even know if the 992.2 will be available in a stick do we?
Recession and expensive car loans will do the job. It's always been like that.
Where can we find similar analyses for the EU market?
I will include the german 911 market in the second half of the year. From march onwards there will be other videos that include the DE and/or UK market.
This is great news! @@fourwheeltrader
Bravo
G63 amg please.
981S is solid, i think the market is bottoming or flat. For the next year, if rates drop at the end of the then thats it
Yeah, I tend to agree. Unless everything collapses. The next 12-24 months could be a great time to buy and enjoy a future classic before they actually become desirable again.
I purchased a base 981 PDK about 1 month ago. I suspect I will lose a bit this year. But it should be far less than any 718 model.
Not even close. They're going to fall significant in the next 6-12 months.
What about Turbo cars?
They are covered in the market update for the turbos. Have a look at the channel.
Base price of new 911 is $115k now 😂
yes no dealers order a no opt car
What happened? People realised it’s not such a great car?
Car prices barely have come down that much interest rate are up so makes not difference In less you are a cash buyer
They limit production so inventory is purposefully low creating a sales model akin to auctions. Speculators buy them up, torture and abuse them for a few hundred miles and then flip them back to dealers. This is what Porsche is doing to their loyal customers to rip them off and pay for all the costly EV losses they are suffering from their stupidity. I refuse to pay a 50% increase in price for a 911. So, the fools can pay this and I’ll move on to another brand…maybe a new MB AMG GT 63.
GTR
As a future seller, Let them Prices RISE!!!!
People have been saying this for the last 4 years....
People perhaps, but not the analyses on this channel. Most updates last year pointed towards an exceptionally strong 911 market.
24 of 56 videos last year were about Porsche. Almost 1/2 I think you are great but it’s a little too Porsche heavy
What other car would you like to see? I experimented with some different models (both stand alone and grouped together) but it are the porsche videos that consistently get the most views. However, this is not a porsche only channel so i will continue to add more brands and models.
@@fourwheeltrader what about the super SUVs? You barely do Lambos. More Corvette not just C8. I’ve never seen a BMW M car video. AMG Benz? Lotus? Tesla, Lucid?
@hine Many models that you mentioned are covered on the channel (Lambos (incl Urus), M cars, AMG GTs, G63, Evoras ) but updated on a less frequent basis as the views are low for those videos. Have a look at the different playlists for each brand: www.youtube.com/@fourwheeltrader/featured
Also, some less popular models are grouped together in broader market updates. These are usually listed under 'Car market deep dives'.
Dodge viper
People who want cars for enjoyment and not for investment:-
👍👍👍👍👍
No one should buy a 911 unless it's at where it should be. Don't over pay. You just push up the market.
So you make a video saying JayMm is wrong about a market collapse on Porsche, then a few months later post this vid. What value is your content ??????
I think the market is holding well. And a loss of 1.8 percent year over year. I think if you went the conclusion he says the only indication is inventory is slightly slower to sell. That said, good CPO cars are still hot hot hot..
Try watching the video before posting a comment.
I am sure the UK market is a bit different to the US market. Especially on things such as economy/cost of living etc. Car supply may also be significantly different since Stuttgart factory is only a short drive away.
@@fourwheeltrader I did, why do you think I didn't???
@@ForgetfulFoot Jaymm is in the UK, that is the point. Why say he is wrong if you don't know due to being a different geo ?
Since options and color greatly affect pricing, I am sure the Porsche enthusiasts (nerds) would appreciate it if you could compare pricing between coupe, cabriolet and targa. Manual vs PDK. Sports exhaust vs without. Sports chrono vs without. And the various colors too. As we know options and color greatly affect pricing.
I eventually found/bought a Porsche spec'ed the way I wanted...an immaculate guards red 2014 991.1 S cabriolet with 17500 miles, manual transmission, sports exhaust, sports chrono, multifunction/heated steering wheel, ventilated seats and new tires for $87K.
In my research of 991.1s cabriolet, the more common black/white/silver/gray colors, PDK and without sports exhaust with around 50K miles cost 10-20K less the one I bought. Similar optioned targa 991.1S were $10-30K more than my cabriolet.
Thanks for your informative analysis.
Thanks for your feedback. Coupes, cabriolets, pdks, and manuals all have different price levels but there is for the common models, in general, no significant difference in the trend itself. I.e. the trends are shifted parallely. That's why i am not showing the splits in the videos anymore.
Some colours can have a large effect on the price, but it is difficult to reliably establish that the trend is significantly different from the rest as desirable colours tend to be rare. I have a video on the channel that investigates if red ferraris outperform non-red ones, it would be interesting to do something similar for the porsche market.