Porsche 911 Carrera Depreciation Is Dead | Will It Ever Come Back?
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- Опубліковано 9 чер 2024
- I have bad news for you if you have been dreaming about a Porsche 911 Carrera. Values are stuck and are not coming down anymore. Is this the new normal or will prices soon continue their downward trajectory.
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Content
00:00 No depreciation
00:28 Price trends 992, 991, 997, 996
05:19 Benchmarking
06:31 Cars are selling slower
08:30 Conclusion
Disclaimer: The Content is for educational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained in this video constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any cars. The information published has been obtained from or is based on sources which are believed to be accurate and complete. Although reasonable care has been taken, the completeness and the accuracy of any information published cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions may be wrong and may change at any time. You should always carry out your own independent verification of facts and data before making any purchase decision. - Авто та транспорт
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How about analysis on the Mercedes G wagons? I'm not really into these but they seem to hold their price!
991.2 GT3RS, please and thanks.
More on this soon
Have a look at this video: ua-cam.com/video/i2xpVz7QwKY/v-deo.html
991.2 Carrera T
Found your channel through your insta posts being shown in my feed. Instant sub. Great work!
Thanks Misha. Love your content as well.
Glad I did what I did then! Moved from a first generation M2 to a 991.1 Carrera. I imagine that while the 911 stayed flat-ish, the M2 would have dropped a decent bit further, especially since the new one just came out. I made the change about 9-10 months ago, so I think I nailed it.
Couldn't be happier, so I won regardless, but I can also feel confident that my timing was good.
Always appreciate these videos, thank you!
I would love to see another update on the Lexus LC 500 in the near future.
Thanks for your updates!
that one is volatile too, I remember they sell at discount in 2018, but looks like used price spike later
@@protoss7777 seems like the prices are starting to drop a bit, im thinking of picking one up in the not too distant future...would be curious to see where prices are drending.
That convertible is the shit
@@protoss7777no, thst’s not what happened. You can buy a fully featured 2018 LC500 for less than $60k and prices are continuing to drop. I currently have a 911 997 Turbo as my daily driver and as I get older, thinking about trading into an LC 500. I have decided to delay this trade because the Porsche market is so strong and the LC 500s continue to depreciate a pretty high rate. No doubt the LC 500 is a terrific GT car, but prices look like they’ll continue to drop for a while.
Can we broad stroke this and say as long as the price of new 911s continue to increase, there will be stability and even appreciation in the previous generations? Also can we see the same analysis for the turbo market across generations?
All manufacturers constantly increase their prices, especially during the past 10 years or so.
I think in Porsche's case it's the reputation. There has been a huge hype around Porsche for years now, lots of younger enthusiasts who have come into a financial position where they are able to afford one.
If this positive notion around the brand continues the prices will stay stable. If there happens to be a shift in perception prices will drop.
If somehow some other manufacturer becomes the new hottest thing or if there's some big scandal around Porsche.
That's my view, I could be wrong.
@@barbarusbloodshed6347 I agree with your statement, but I also think that a lot of the Porsche hype is justified as the quality and performance continues to outshine many of their competitors.
Yes, please include market data for Europe! And thanks for the analysis
@@j.d.4681 the planet is constantly rotating, all apples are edible.
Anyway, just because a manufacturer keeps increasing the price for something doesn't mean the price people are willing to pay is going up.
I think Porsche already overdid it and they're selling less than they could if prices were a little lower.
As I said there's a big hype around the brand and that's the reason they are getting away with it - for now.
We don't know whether the hype will continue, so all of this is speculation. And your argument is simplistic to the point that it is just false.
There are lots of factors playing into the pricing and lots of factors that play into the demand and the price people are able and willing to pay.
Saying that Porsche will just keep increasing prices and that "therefore" prices for older models must remain stable is just... well, it's just incorrect.
This is also what I asked for! Btw, I wonder how much of Porsche appreciation or super slow depreciation can be ascribed to “the instagram effect.” Remember, Instagram and TikTok came into the global mainstream over the past decade, and all kinds of luxury goods increased awareness and desirability
Thank you for excellent analysis.
I think in nutshell you can say that 911 is a wanted car. It is as well a sign of success as a dream car of a young boy finally rewarding himself. The 911 family seems to reflect this regardless of the model. What would be interesting to study (how?) is the segments of buyers. Because I can see at least three different discrete segments (with overlap, sure). The people who buy new 992s are quite different to those who buy 996s and everything in between forms a spectrum. Maybe a comparison between new car market vs. second hand would reveal something. Obviously the special models like GT3 RS have a weird market mechnisms of its own.
As a long time member of a national Porsche Club I can easily see that the people who own 911s are somewhat different from each other. If you buy a new car the story is usually professional success while a 996 is a story of a long time dream come finally true. A lot of the more valuable cars are about “old money” and not so often about “oppotunist money”. The 911 love is usually long time. My dream took 43 years to become true. We all speak Porsche fluently but we are hardly a homogenous group otherwise which then means we will always have some statistical noise or fuzzyness in the predictions.
Another interesting development is if you look prices in the US vs. Europe and Europe vs. small European countries. Im sure Asian markets are very aggressive but Australia might also tell something. And then of course the asking price is hardly ever the actual sales price.
Regardless of my theoretical/academic notes I think you have done excellent job.
We know that we are still not able to build reliable overall market prediction models for mid or long term. Too many variable, too many abnormalities. And yet we seem to know what the weather is in 100 years - and it has plenty more variables not to mention of the number of time steps…
I remember back in the days when 991s use to depreciate.... you could even get an air cooled for like 15k because no one was nostalgic for them... lol
Tell me about it, I've been looking daily for the last 6 months, and this is bonkers.
I did the same thing for two years then one popped up and I pulled the trigger. Now that I have had it a year I would have spent the extra money to get it soon. It is everything you have been dreaming about. Go to autocross and track days and you will really see what the car can do. Hope you purchase soon!
Thanks for making these videos!
Any chance of getting the 991.2 T data in a video? I understand there aren’t many.
a low mileage 997.2 Targa manual just sold on BAT 2 weeks ago for $80,000.
Great video as usual.
Are these based on “asking prices?”
Also how do you get days for sale over 90 days etc if it’s private party for sale?
Lastly how do you factor you cabriolet and/or PDK vs manual transmission as most data seem to be on base models?
Thanks, it is great to hear that you enjoy the content.
- All the prices are asking prices
- The selling time estimate is based on the listing time. I.e. i use a proxy, not the actual selling time.
- I check the trends for differences in roof type and transmission type. Generally speaking, there are no differences in the yoy change. Only the price levels are different.
An i8 update would be nice (i know they arent many of us) also maybe a general analysis of correlation between discontinuation and price variance (vipers, r8s, i8s etc…)
Awesome review. These cars are becoming a asset alternative and store of wealth due to demand dynamics.
I love my 997.1 base. Numeric short shifter plus m030 Porsche damper/springs with gt3 sway bars and gt3 lower control arms for camber. The thing just grips.
Exactly what I want to do with my 997.2, except I want the B16 Bilsteins since I have PASM.
Since porsche will be releasing the new 992.2, will it increase the rate of depreciation for prior year cars?
The other thing i feel isnt emphasized enough is the seasonality of the sports car market both in terms of comparing year over year and when those “3 months” of seller delay occurs. If you put a sports car for sale in august or september va may or june in the entire northern states you would obviously have discounts. You need to filter out that variance as jt probably is consistent historically every year
I would love to have a Cayenne video. Thanks!
They will come down. Current trends not broadcasted in the mainstream media are that all big ticket items are showing shift in demand. US housing and commercial properties are stagnant, and some areas are in decline. Interest rates will increase despite the hype. Watch and wait until 2025 September.
Hey can make a video on what cars that we can buy that is not effected by mileage as much I want to know which cars so I can use one those as a daily driver
Here you go: ua-cam.com/video/x9DAbJeRM9Y/v-deo.htmlsi=ocwMSdHpRAPILyPV
Ive been looking at the same 2022 at a Porsche dealer for sale for 9 months now and they have not reduced the price at all.
Or sold it
I wish I could own a modern 911. But the price jump between a base 981 Cayman to 991, 992 or even a 987.2 is just massive here in Australia.
I have owned 3 Caymans now.
I have never driven a 911. But I just cant see these cars being significantly better than a 981 Base or S.
Surely a 911 isn't worth 2x (997.2), 3x (991), or 4x (992) from the price of a 981.
You're right, the 981 was a sweet spot in being modern but still with the flat 6. The gts 4.0 is too much of a gap, but the 981 S is where its at. Trade in your base for a little more torque, unless it's a pure weekend car that you always drive at high revs
@Jay-xr3sb Yeah, it's purely a weekend car only used for fun roads in the hills. If I could find a local S in a good colour with a few options. At a good price. I probably would consider upgrading.
But coming from S2000s and MX5s. The base suits me just fine. It sounds great being revved out.
@@ForgetfulFoot then it's perfect for you!
@@ForgetfulFootso you have PSE?
@tobiaskolb9011 No, I dont have PSE. According to my wife and neighbours.. The stock engine is plenty loud enough in sport mode. However, I have got a used AWE exhaust I am going to fit next week. Hopefully its sounds ok.
What about the 992 Turbo S models?
Maybe next analysis Porsche Cayenne market? In Porsche line most popular model.
Cant wait for the German data
What cars do you leave out of the market averages and why?
The ones for which market supply is really low are excluded to avoid the inclusion of wrong estimates.
Can u make a vid abt nissan gtrs. Looks like prices r going up
Great great vids
Doesn‘t inflation also play a role? I‘d expect used car prices to have a correlation with inflation as if a new car costs more you‘d probably also pay more for a used one.
Of course that still doesn‘t explain why the 911 goes down less than others (or maybe others didn‘t increase the price for new models as much as Porsche?).
I agree. If inflation was the same rate for the past 20 years, then these prices would've gone done more. However since prices of everything has inflated it makes sense that these prices haven't dropped as much as they normally would, because the price of a 992, just like everything else, isn't dropping much and on some cases increasing like everything else
Just got a mint 991.2 CS for 85 with 27k miles and a clean PPI. I think I make out good. What do you think?
CPO would be $120k-$130k based on what I’m seeing on Porsche Finder today. Seems like a steal.
Until pricing power weakens on new 911 cars, this will continue. These trends are primarily due to Porsche consistently increasing all-in pricing on its new cars. A low mileage 991.1 GTS at $120k is a poor value vs its original cost, but that’s irrelevant. The fact a new one is hard to get and near $200k with options is what matters. It’s the same reason the Nissan GTR has such a flat curve. Prices doubled on new ones and kept used near their MSRP. Given Porsche is owned by Volkswagen, I do not expect them to be able to cut production when the downturn eventually arrives. Odds are they’ll offer incentives too.
I have a theory on future value of the 911’s. The success of the Macan (which out sells 911’s twofold) has created a new younger generation of Porsche buyers. In the past Porsche owners were a small percentage of the population. The affordable Macan has introduced a whole new income level to the pure driving enjoyment of Porsche vehicles. Additionally the Cayman and Boxster owners tend to graduate to the 911 if/when financial situations allow. These buyers over time will payoff homes, college tuition etc. and desire to own the best of what Porsche has to offer. The future demand for 911’s in all variants will remain strong….just a theory.
but but but what about 996 turbo?
They are covered over here ua-cam.com/video/Fom_74UsCzo/v-deo.htmlsi=_V6KSKmxLlY5WZT-
Just put a deposit for a new 992 carrera, basically all dealerships I taked to told me that it would take over a year to get it, I hope I don't get tired of waiting
Can we do a deeper dive into the 991.1 GTS
Anything specific you would like to know?
@@fourwheeltrader perhaps if there is more to the numbers such as a correction or over correction based on past values or do your current numbers suggest supply/demand or maybe there is a suggestion towards other influences like model variances (4GTS vs GTS vs mileage vs targa vs convertible)….or truly not enough data to show correlation. It was just interesting to see the 991.1 GTS go down in price vs the other 991.1 models and also see that other generation GTS’s see better numbers. Great videos and analysis as always!!
FYI - the seasonal pattern is real, especially in colder climates. I have a 991.1 cab & when I tried to trade it in back in November (in Colorado) I was offered $59k, was in yesterday & was offered $68k trade-in.
Chicago here. Unless the perfect spec 991.1 comes up, I’ll be waiting until Q4 to pull the trigger.
I don’t understand this market. I considered buying a 991.2 CS listed for $101K over a year ago. Same car today is listed for $108K. You’re telling I could have made a profit owning this car for all this time? It’s a 7 year old used car, not even exclusive model. How is this possible?
992.2 is coming and it will be naturally aspirated hybrids. It will be interesting to see how that will affect the prices of 992.1. If the new Panamera and Taycan are any indication, it looks like the active suspension will be an even bigger deal than the hybrid system.
Only the GTS
The Porsche Brand was built on slow depreciation and projected as the Accountants choice. Porsche has become a commodity brand just like the rest. The Boxster saved the Brand which was close to Bankruptcy in 1996 them all the fundamental values were second to profitability. Even the once European Chic, sophisticated 911 Carrera small lightweight car reflecting Ferdinand Porsches ideal, has become a bloated plastic laden lump.
What about 911 Turbos from 997 and 991 generations. Here in Dubai, 997 turbos have barely budged since 10 years ago! Depreciation is snail-like, but now actually flat and possibly appreciating. Does anyone have any insights on 991 turbos? The 992 turbo is so expensive, older turbos should be appreciating or stable. This is like the Rolex effect applied to vehicles.
This is the latest turbo market update: ua-cam.com/video/Fom_74UsCzo/v-deo.htmlsi=D6CkCTXnwhrVPkrE
This is great news
Of course the car I like is going up 😭
911 demographic are big holders of financial assets. When risk assets started bull run in Oct 2023 it also marked bottom for 911 market from my anecdotal observation (992 wait list muppet here)
It is correct
911 turbo?
ua-cam.com/video/Fom_74UsCzo/v-deo.htmlsi=47FwRE59vrFj6z1d
LX LC 500
You are funny guy. If 911 depreciates so much why I cannot find them in those better prices? Mayby you leave in your virtual world:)
Figure in inflation they are falling
bro do you ever deliver any good news? 😒😒
for real, the pandemic fucked everything man. previous gen 911s should be half these prices
Good news for collectors 😂
@@WheresTheAnyKey1yeah dude it’s sad , only thing can fix this is a total economic recession, and even then that’s not guaranteed 🤦♂️
Did you just get up from under that rock?
911s are over priced and not worth buying. By the time they come down, there'll be good EVs available
This is because Porsche increased the prices. But 911 prices will come down significantly in a few years. But by then there's going to be better options in the EV space
Pure nonsense...as soon as the stock market tanks these high end car values will follow
When 992.2 will be in the market, it will start to go down. I think the early 992 base and S trims will go down below $100k.
40% drop for sure from September and another 15% from january... all these will get half price by march.
It is impossible !
@@laetussanta absolutely yes instead, we should see prices at least 10 % below pre corona... also 991 is short squeezing with used 992 prices... Porsche cannot keep hiking prices forever NOR absorb used 911's at these price tags for a selling a new car.... there will be a gargantuan fall in prices once 992.2 i announced in october... and January next year a further 10 15% price drop...992 are already over 5 years old...5 years on a Porsche is a hell lot of time buddy.
@@AbyNeon It depends from the new 992.2 price tag: it could be higher than the actual 992.1..
@@laetussanta It might, but then they are already selling very few cars after their 20% price hike 2 years ago.
Seeing a lot of overpriced 911s sitting on market these days. Sellers probably overpaid for inventory and can’t afford to cut prices unless they become desperate. Manual transmission cars are trading at a $10k premium to PDK cars.
100%. Most people who buy 911s aren't hurting for money, but have very fragile egos. Buying a 911 is about the worst financial decision a person could make right now. There's going to be a total upheaval in this space and then the 911 fan boys will seem silly.
No they won’t. They are driving a 911
1998 targa 993 6 sp
Not true i ownd a 992 911S the latest edition ive seen them for £85k convertible. Ive owned 5 porsches
So what is not true? This video only applies to the us market.
UK market is completely different. Market going rates are significantly lower, market liquidity is at all-time lows - you can find 812s for £200k now vs. EU market bottom €300k. Taycan market has 40% markdowns when you drive your car off the lot, 911 market premiums that used to be £100k over in the GT3 market are down to 0.
@@DivineFrag taycan turbos lose 50% driving off the lot in the UK. Porsche UK has 700 second hand taycans listed
So care to explain your previous statement about the market being “not true”?
Who cares?
It will not return while people with more money than brains are around....