Unfiltered | Will the ANC fall below 50%?
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- Опубліковано 13 бер 2024
- Political parties and voters are busy preparing for what most experts say will be South Africa's most fiercely contested Election to date. The country's elections have been dominated by the African National Congress, which assumed power during the landmark 1994 General Elections.
Good evening and welcome to Unfiltered I am your host Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh.
The governing party has consistently garnered above 60% of the vote, falling short of gaining a two-thirds majority in the 1999 polls, with a massive 65.90% of the vote. Latest opinion polls and surveys show a dramatic decline in electoral support for the ANC.
Tonight we ask: Will the ANC fall below 50%?
To help me unpack the topic I am joined in Studio by Professor David Everatt from the WITS School of Governance, Independent Political Analyst Ms Khanyi Magubane, and Mr Terry Tselane who is the Executive Chairperson of the Institute of Election Management Services in Africa. On ZOOM I'm joined by Mr Ray Hartley, who is Research Director at the Brenthurst Foundation.
For more news, visit sabcnews.com and #SABCNews on all Social Media platforms.
The ANC will always drop support no matter how brilliant their campaigns occur
Great presenter❤ very informative. My the best for SA WIN 🙏🏻 South Africa 🇿🇦 no corruption ❤️ no loadshedding 💖 🇿🇦 no crime 🇿🇦 peace ❤️
And Equality.
Thank you Mam'!
Elections are full of surprises and electorate are unpredictable always. Youth are untrusted voters.
They should get the same as their school pass marks - 30% or less!
They won't fall below 50% they will fall below 40%
I heard today they are 38%.
@@tonythebomb4147 😂😂🤣🤣 only after 29 man we will know for now keep lying to each other
You know you are wrong.
@@Josephalive101 Shall see not long to go.
30% even die hard comrades are gatvol look at Zuma that says a lot😂
I think the first question that should be asked in any poll should be......Are you registered to vote? If you use such a large segment of people to poll and a percentage of them are not registered, the result may not be a true reflection.
jah neh
This predictions about the outcome of 2024 election are misleading. 1- The DA is loosing support Mashaba and Musi Maimane saga. So the DA prediction must be below + - 20%, The EFF we have seen how they have being active throughout the season Malema always using all opportunity available to do media and rallies across the country , the have chosen very well their voters poor people in this country. And Malema knows the hows of appealing to the people in villages and the townships, so I am wondering of this results but the contributing factor will be access to the internet and data to participate to this poll so clearly majority of EFF voters will not participate. I think that on the ANC and MK is not far to my prediction, EFF above 20%.
What a great interview and what fantastic guests. Thank you Sizwe
Sizwe is the best in this; big up my brother well researched interview
ANC is like Kaizer Chiefs, people like them. But they make it hard for people to support them
Which people like them?
for those whom ANC is religion. They were sworn into it, like kids confirmed in church. For life.@@AndrewMcFarlane_1
Irrelevant example 😂
😂Stop it via Amakhosi 😅
Kabelo Mataboge once said that, there are 2 organizations, which are ANC and Kaizer Chiefs
It's not really a question of if anymore. It's a question of how far it will fall.
I am hoping for 30%
30% is what they will get...39% is still a win for them.
38% is wht ANC will get
If they didn't fall below 50% koba bayaloya lol.
The most people pray for a new government.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.
I agree that is why they have been in power since at 2008 when load shedding and sars destruction started.
Never underestimate the racist vergramtes attitude that would make voters keep on voting the way they do due to lack of alternative.
@@penekedirero4636 there are alot of alternatives this yr. Anc also has 2 parties using the same name but r pretty much anc ,in my opinion u know. Ppl need to stop voting for colour, our country is dead pretty much and needs to be saved for future generations .
@penekedirero4636 "Racist ver... wat?" Are we looking for the unicorn in south africa ? The main racists are the EFF and ANC who are always talking about race otherwise they'd be irrelevant ? There are many
alternatives.
Hey wena stupid racist don't hypocrite and play domkop the people who are racially abusing black people in different work and education institution are racist white afrikaner and those white racist party leader you will never hear them trying stop or discourage it because its what they believe in.When the white farmer being attacked they will be up in arms because they have got this stupid white supremacy mentality
Let us not fool ourselves - The ANC, EFF and MK are one you will see us merged after the elections... Strategy is a key factor....
and they will never see it coming nice thinking
@@tebellorankadi everyone sees it coming 😂
Our People Love Criminals In Politics, Citizen Concerned, UA-cam.
@@tonitappous2422 beware of the comrades !
Zuma announced it in his smug" birthday message to Juju"
The interesting part is that if ANC below 50 % the posibility of us having president from opposition is at hand.wow it will be so interesting.
SA is like a sick patient suffering from cANCer - lying on a hospital bed calling out for help - it needs a party that cares about the country and its people more than itself - and has a proven track record - a party that is honest - hard working and treats all people equally and with respect. SA needs your help.
Agree 100 % I feel the multicoalition will do the trick and hv the faith that will going better
IFPOr Da
Lets hope ANC drops in the polls, and that there is no viable coalition!!!
any poll putting mk at 3rd and eff at 4th is not a serious poll
eff wil stay 3rd and mk is gonna come 5th maximum
eff and anc will be close 2 and 3, but mk will win easy
EFF and MK will make ANC fall below 30 percent
They sleep together at night
EFF is being under estimated like Donald Trump in the USA . All the polls are fake and are made to discourage the EFF voters from going to polls. EFF is not tribal political party but a national organization. Mk, IFP, and others are not national organizations.
Yes and we love it@@AndrewMcFarlane_1
Even if they do EFF is the embroy of anc youth league. MK is the offspring of ANC. They are all the same and are all bad for democracy. They will work together and continue to destroy rsa. The 3 parties are just a distraction to give us ppl rhe idea of having a right to choose better, they are all the same and all will work together ! In my opinion to save rsa non of them should be voted for. In all 3 parties there ia proof of corruption, lies, Crimes, why are they even an opinion anymore.
MK. Party will drop if Mr Zuma is disqualified.
How does one take part into these poles? I always see results but never the process.
I think its done by telephone. They call you.
You can tell by the look on his face that Sizwe enjoyed every minute of this
Zuma give birth to state capture but thy called out let us returned the country frm state capture
We shall see what shall transpire at the end of this election what will be the will of the people. But as for me I don't see the ANC see winning.
The only way the anc willbtry to turn this around is to start by making empty promises and hope people are dumb enought to beleive what they saying
To really think MK can pass EFF is madness.the only analysis than can be believed is that EFF will be the official opposition if not remain on its position.
People who lives in Eastern Cape, North West, Limpopo, Mpumalanga, why are they voting ANC?
hope that their loyalty might one day be rewarded
Who must we vote for
anyone who is not famous for corruption or chaos? @@user-fb9jx8pw3f
@@user-fb9jx8pw3fAny of the zillion other parties- preferably one that gets the job done.
I used to vote for Two parties, now, I'll be voting for ACTIONSA ( Provincial and National)
ONCE Form President Thobo Mbeki standup 70 % is possible for ANC.
Rise Mzansi and ActionSa they gonna be the biggest surprise
SABC must keep this guy. He's articulate.
So chuffed to see a professional host on this platform that has over 2.2 million subscribers.
There is no way ANC pass 45,% mark 50 % is to far for them they will be less than 40 % and we are very happy for that
They will fall below 30% which is level one in their matric certificates
We want ACTION we dont need dictators .We suffered so much and we dont need a repeat again .We tired of corruption and politicians enrichening themselves.😮😮😮
The preparation for collision governance should be attended to. Matching of manifestos so there is no delay in a positive output to the country.
That is the job for each voter
Why do people over estimate the power of the eff
DA has already proven that it can manage a whole province even better than the ANC.
Where did it prove that?
@@slindilesliegums7960DA has the only municipalities that are not in debt with millions. DA's Western Cape is THE ONLY province not full of potholes. DA is the only party that maintains their buildings. and there is soooo much more. When last have you been to Western Cape? any person with eyes can see that DA run province is the best run..
people are saying but look ate the crime in the Cape flats, the ANC is still in control op SAPS even in Western Cape, and that is the only failing part of the Western Cape.
I really think as far as the South African community, myself included as well, don't care anymore who is going to win the elections. The only thing we all S.A community "demand" is, whichever party is going to win the elections. Should be robust enough to reverse all the wrong things we are experiencing right now. According to me, my suggested coalition parties is, i know perfectly well that those two parties behave like enemies towards each other, but both of them they want their people to live a normal, modern, descent, lifestyle. They will start to tolerate each other as they know exactly what they want. I absolutely know that there will be some hiccups on the way, but a solution can be found. My coalition government parties are the EFF party and the DA party, but definitely not the ANC, MK, including all the many other parties you can think of. There are so many factors to justify that. I know that there will be so many people who are going to ask me the question, " Are you out of your mind?" My only answer, which i will be giving to them right now, is NO, because both the parties are going to make South Africa a desirable Rainbow nation. Therefore, people forget me and just try to think deeply about what I said in this comment.
Where does this guy get these 39% and 10% and 2% from?
The rule is you need to watch the video 100 times to know
I doubt it will fall below 50%, if anything they might improve - The assumption that the ANC is losing support my not be accurate considering that the smaller parties are not gaining either. There is no justification for having 115 parties on the ballot , this might just work in ANC's favor.
I,think EFF will get more votes than DA
Go 4 the tried and tested ANC😢😢😢 Others will take 4 years to learn the ropes on how to run a country😮😮😮
If one takes into account Zuma being a member of the ANC still and trying to save the ANC MK votes are technically ANC votes, but the Ramaphosa ANC won't get those for free, they will have to sweat for them.
My poll from my bones for the ANC 42_43%, at most 45%, nothing more.
My bones are telling me 38%
Is very much falcious for Zuma because he went out of jail on medical parole. Is a shame with all former Presidents of SA.Now we see him dancing like a new baby
DA only hope for South Africa or we end up like Zimbabwe.
That Brendhurst chart is miss leading, the multiparty charter involve smaller parties. How will they beat EFF? DA is the only big party there and IFP, but the later won't make it to 3%.
Do you have data to back your claims?
DA is dropping ,IFP is dropping UDM is dead others dont exist its a joke
@@tebellorankadi where did you buy your qualification from?
IPSOS polls even have DA below the EFF and they somehow have them at 27%, its giving polling out of touch whites and black elites
Multi Party Charter to rescue and save South Africa and its citizens...nationally...provincially.....regionally....districally and locally...
MK will never be below EFF and ANC. Because MK is the government for its self. Once an MK it's will always be an MK. 💪 Power to people.
Enkosi mntakhwethu. U doing a gr8 job. Again very educational and informative. Danko!!!
It is in the interests of the Country :
1. For ANC to fall below 50% down to 35% and DA to less than 20% down to 15% so that there is 0 DANC. This must be, not because of their failure locally but because of their stance regarding Israel Palestine war( which in my view Country did well under ANC to stand up for humanity, but Country is likely to pay dearly under ANC Leadership so would be under silent DA).
2. Taking Israel Palestine out of equation, for our affairs SACANS need to give PA; EFF and FF + are chance
This is an obvious case they will win but with 46%
The eff can forget about a huge percentage growth.
Only in ur dreams.
even if it stays below 50%, it will still govern thats the sad part because it will be around 47% which they will need a minor opposition for coallission ..and give them one department and few municipalities
They will get 23%.
We should ask the psychics and check the betting with the bookies... just like we do before the July Handicap.
please check my prediction
Imagine...😂 Putting my money on a dead horse 🐎 ANC
I think we need a mad man like Big Mac, Gayton
I have been voting for years and have never voted for the ANC and here im "maybe this year I should support the ANC" 😂😂 voters guys are unpredictable i tell you
You want to throw your vote 😂😂😂
Most SAns are going to vote for EFF
rephrase: most uneducated and brainwashed SAfricans will vote eff
We are not consided as citizens, only during the vote we see so many parties emmerging with the same slongan word's we just watch still waiting to see more no delivery services mentioned only about the other pary concerned so its not to our interest
We are only considered their workers bees, to provide all the money they need. We are all their peasants.we work for the state.
@1986aurora we not compensated for any land compensated 600 0000 will be allocated to the blacks
@1986aurora I have no hope for voting in this election.........stay safe beware for forwho you voting me counting Anc out of our life
EFF should move away from open border policy.. It's really doing it a lot of damage...
It will so interesting to see a coalition but partnering with EFF might be dangerous..
Origionally africa was a boaderless continent and there was nothing wrong with that untill the colonisers imposed this boarders.so any african who knows the origin of africa will never embrase boarders.
There is something you guys miss. We ANC supporters are not out there wishing bad for other parties. We are more like Kaiser Chiefs' fans, we do not dump a team just because it does not perform well for a season. We stay the course. We just punish it by not attending their games but come the big days like derby you will see us there. So come elections you will see us in the elections voting ANC to 60%.
If you follow mainstream media now you will think that Ukraine is crushing Russia and has been from 22 Feb 2022. I know what I am saying, ANC has the old, the young and the youth. If you saw my daughter in the streets you'd swear she'd vote for EFF, but she is an ANC at heart.
😂😂😂😂
How naive can voters be!!? Can you unseat a party that has a track record of delivering services nationally with just a manifesto and no reputation of service delivery in at least one province?
mk members are more then 9 million....they are more that didn't register as members, taxi driver, truck drivers, cleaners, security, gran parents, those that are 35 yrs and more.....kuzoshuba
Wasted votes.
MK will be in coalition with ANC
Can we do something about this intro music? Sounds like the Undertaker has just walked in ☠
9 thousand people is nothing, why we even discussing this poll.
This is another election year for ANC. Formation of MK party and loadsheding will cost ANC a lot of votes
Use indeed never underestimate stupidity of an average voter, I think another thing that should retrospect the latter local government elections where anc promised to tactle the issue of councillor who imposed to people after people chose their preferred candidates, did the anc delt with that issue? Definitely they didn't then how do you trust such people for your future I think that is bizzare let them sit to 28% that is the position they deserve, eff I wish they do well on this come May 29
ANC will get 52% EFF30 DA15%
It's NOT the experts to determine the fate and future of SA but the ordinary people in SA. The majority of us we are sick and tired of the ANC and we will make sure we vote them out without fear or favor. I am EFF and EFF is me.
They going to rig
It is too early to predict the ANC will fall under 50% just because there are so many newborn parties.The parties that were born before 1994 ,they got more experience ,they don't make lot of noise.
Vote ActionSA, Rise Mzansi or BOSA!
4 Great options for jobs and prosperity!
don't forget UIM
@@ladygrace6208 yes and UIM!
ANC OUT!!!
Never 🎉
These surveys are not presenting the full view of people across South Africa. The ANC will still win the upcoming elections with 53.5% and the EFF will be in second position with 24.8%, the DA with get 12.3%, and the MK will get less than 5% and other parties will share the remaining votes.
I see ANC getting 48%
Well I may be angry at someone for a time, but when they need help im a battle, I may lend a helping hand. This is no stupidity, and if it is yhen we are all stupid 😅
The long answer is "yes".
People whether ANC participated actively to gain fŕeedom it was time ,apartheid was gonna fall down not only ANC brought democracy and other parties contributed , Azapo, PAC ,Bantu Holomisa ,and other parties participated ,who says ANC alone liberated us ,this is or was a collective efforts leave Zuma my President alone.
What are the chances ANC can go into a coalition with DA or with EFF ?
with DA no, DA said they will not go into coalition again with a party that is our biggest problem. DA will be in the MPC. but with EFF yes possibly which will be doomsday for sure😢
When DA and the MPC stand together, our people and country will be saved 🙏
Yes they will get below 50 percent of the vote no Zuma No EFF vote DA the only party that has the knowledge are fully competent and know how to govern lets get South Africa back to being a proud Nation vote DA and rid SA of this rot lets unite and vote the ANC out of power
Amen.
In your dreams
Where did they ever govern?don't tell me about western cape because blacks are treated badly there
DA is the way... to homelessness, privatization of public services to ensure poor people have no access to it. A party that wants to MEANS TEST a R350 grant. Like me as a working individual will waste my time to get R350 or maybe they think our unemployed youth don't want to find jobs because R350 can get you soooo much. If you're wealthy and don't want to see that wealth drop in any way, even if it means living in a better country, vote DA. For the rest of us regular people who don't live their lives in suburbs, gated communities and actually have to catch a taxi to go to work, there are better options
@@fanamlawuli6761please look at UIM manifesto and what they stand for. they are for us all!
Mk won't beat eff or ifp never i bet with my last cent
True brother
30%
Where was the Brunthust survey done😂. Hai maan, one can see this is a gimmick foundation 😂😂
If ANC will be beaten by the votes,mbulula must be shown his way out of ANC what he hv did to zuma is a big mastake
If bengaba above 50 percent bobe bathenge ama vote as usually
Corruption speaker lady also is sela
Those graphs are rabish
They are going to fall below 30
Blar blar mbalula
Why people don't talk about what will happen to MK party when Mr Zuma is RIGHTFULLY disqualified by the IEC?
I just don’t see less than 40% for ANC. I don’t know where the votes will go. KZN will decide this election
65 % ANC
not this time brother. and NEVER will they get above 50% again.
MPC will save us from the dictatorship of cANCer. whether you see it or not, the ANC is not for the people.
I think this poll is 😂😂
We had our bad day's please we need new governments local and most importantly we suffered the higher cost of living fuel prize rising. Criminals paradise no person allowed to even out of fear defend thier self ,they are arrested yet the Criminals are free to break in our home to murder loot all valuable and leave, during that time no police van available, police officers work with criminals so where is Law and order as we the citizens are ruined from lowshedding, that's when thugs break in do many incidents reported no confidence yet innocent children babies get kidnapped they not on time our police service is very poor below poor rated
Correct. I pray for a new party to save south africa. Non that are anc or have come from anc
@1986aurora whe is India Palka speaking on behalf of Anc do she really realize what South African Indian's facing on a daily life there's plenty time for voting we need a party to serve all race just the 4 race groups is it too much to ask
@@user-yp1pu8kj7p I agree. It would be nice that in my lifetime there actually was a goverment that represents all of south africa . We haven't had that in 30 yrs
How naive can voters be!! U can't beat a party that, against all odds, has a reputation of delivering services at the national level with just a manifesto and close to no track record of service delivery.
@@1986aurorawatch some videos about UIM who is part of the MPC, they need more seats, the MPC they will be our saving grace
ANC will win the election, and DA will move, to 4, FFP 5,6.IFP 8ActionSa.
Polls will decieve you.. Anc will get the 50% .. ANC has a lot of silent voters in provinces like Limpopo Mpumalanga and Eastern cape which I dont see it changing as those people are loyal to the anc .. eben if it performs poor on other provinces .. these 3 provinces will boost its results
Yes of cause 💪
I still don't understand why black people vote for DA, visit wc townships, you will be shocked by DA oppression on black people. it's rather sad really. Whether is PA, Bosa, Rise mzantsi, Action SA same funders. With All mentioned, if they win, they will bring the mighty apartheid.
Apartheid will never happen again, it is against the constitution. the problems in wc townships are crime, which is directly still the fault of the ANC because they still control SAPS in wc.. please look at the UIM and what they stand for. they formed the MPC, they will be holding all the parties accountable for their promises
Why "WALSH"?
why not?
@@elloohno1349 So you also don't know.lt was a genuine question. Still is.
@@brightonmukwindidza9627 no I dont and I was also wondering actually but im assuming its part of his family name
Mother's surname
I wonder why though
less than 20%, my prediction MK 54%, ANC16%, EFF12%, DA 9% ( 9% for the rest)
My prediction
ANC - 39%
EFF- 25%
DA - 16%
MK - 10%
The rest share 10%
My prediction
SA 2024 national election results
CCP: 60%
Republicans: 20%
Rock spider party: 10%
@thabelofortune i doubt the anc will fall below 48%. DA wont improve, EFF will shrink slightly. And some small parties will increase. Most ANC votes lost will be voters who stop voting
@@gerritkruger4014 what's your prediction especially on top 5 party. Wanna see how many percentage you give each.
@@gerritkruger4014 based on what?
I put EFF no2 Mk 3 DA4
This is a joke, 😂😂.