Hero here! I was really excited to see this hand being analysed by my first and favourite poker coach. Thank you, James! You did a great job again. I also enjoyed reading the comment section from this video. There were some really interesting points of view, arguments and questions that I would like to reply. Making a decision on the turn was hard for me, mostly because of the lack of information I had. But I did come with an answer based on the little things I could obtain from villain as well as my experience from a large number of hands played on 2NL Zoom. It's true the pool here contains a lot of fish, but it also contains a lot of regs. I consider villain was most likely a regular. His starting stack was over 100 BBs, he did a well-sized 3bet preflop (3.5X), but most importantly - he used a predefined 64% pot bet button on flop and turn. Fish don't usually do that. I will now review my own hand. I think my preflop play was pretty standard. I'm not a big fan of 4-betting AQo unless I know my opponent is super-aggresive. Folding was also not such a good idea given the 3.21 : 1 pot odds. Check to the raiser on the flop is also the standard line I take. Now here comes an interesting spot. Villain's C-bet on the flop didn't give away too much about his hand. I think his range here resembles his preflop range. In my opinion he most likely has something like TT+, AQ+, and maybe some weaker combos. He can definetely have other combos. Given the fact that I'm ahead of AK, JJ and other possible combos (KQs, 99, Axs, etc.) I decided to call and wait for both the turn card and his action. The turn card could change a lot of things. It could have been a club, an ace, a queen, etc. which would have changed the relative hand strength of both of us. That's one reason for my call on the flop. The other reason was to get some more information from villain. Regulars here do C-Bet a lot on that flop. But they do not double-barrel bluff that much. A check-check scenario on the turn was also to be considered. If it wasn't for these reasons, I would have fold or raised on the flop. Checking the turn was also kind of standard for me. And here comes the decisive point. I would never just call his bet. Either fold or shove. And it all depends on hand-reading. My guess after his turn bet: most probably AA, KK, QQ, AKc, AQ; possibly AK, JJ, TT, AJc and 5% KQ, 99 or some crazy combos. Folding was the best solution from my perspective. Some of you really wanted to know what cards was the villain holding. I found this highly irrelevant. If he showed KK, it wouldn't mean my fold was good. If he showed a bluff, it wouldn't mean my fold was bad. We just have to think in terms of ranges. To conclude: I think villain was rather a regular than a fish and his 64% pot bet on the turn was much rather a value bet than a bluff. Thank you all for your time! Good luck out there and happy grinding!
Com’on. Ur play was awful. u say “I don’t have much information on the V and his range didn’t change much up to the turn”, then go and get that information! You’ve got TPTK and play it like flush/street draw or hit into a small pair. If I would’ve been on the D button, I’d easily bluff u with the same bet sizes with 27o or some garbage like that, since ur play didn’t show any kind of hand strength. Anyway, what u should’ve done is to donk the V on the flop/turn. Considering how it all was played, u should’ve donked on the turn and then u would have the information on the V’s hand. And if the V would really have had Kk+, he would have just reraised ur bet, otherwise he would fold. No draws on his hand for sure. I have no idea how u guys analyze hands without taking into consideration the way a Hero plays hands. Since Vs also play based on the hand range a Hero represents.
Hey man thanks so much for your channel. Its really helped me clean up my leaks. I've always been able to play exploitative and make good decisions/reads post flop, but I was playing way to many hands and putting myself in to many bad positions. This is a game changer in changing my level of play. Thank you so much really.
I love ur hands reviews few who can explainit like u, even someone like me who is from no speaking english country can understand u so easly , thanks u Love from morocco
This is actually a really interesting hand and quiz. The first thing to notice is, that when James constructed Villains range in Flopzilla, at no point did he even discuss the possibility of Villain betting a worse hand for value. Which I completely agree with. So even we have top pair top kicker, we are still in a pure bluff catching situation. This mean, that if we have no idea, what the Villain is up to, we should revert to game theory to determine the range, we give him action with. I did a rough estimation of this, and the answer assuming a 15% VPIP from UTG is, that we should do a bit of both with AQ on the turn. If we fold all 12 combos of AQ, the Villain can exploit us by bluffing with all his AK and whatever else, but if we call all 12 combos of AQ, he can exploit us by never bluffing at all. So ideally we should call with those hands, that dont block his bluff but fold those, who do. And this mean mostly calling with this hand, since it dont block his flush draws. And this is where the quiz get really interesting, because with 80% saying they will call, there is good reason to think, the tendency of the average player pool is to call to much in a spot like this. Because I dont think the average 2NL player is advanced enough to fold AQ with the A of diamonds but call with those without. Or even flip a coin about it, when he have AQ with no diamond, as the answer might be. And because it is like that, the players, who will enjoy most success, will be those, who have a low bluffing frequency as the Villain in the hand. And naturally people, who continue to play, will learn from experience and do, what work in their game but stop doing, what does not work. So there is good reason to assume, that most micro stakes regs have adjusted to the player pools average tendency to become a bit to sticky with TPTK in a spot like this by not bluffing a lot of the turn if at all. To this we can add the info, we actually have in the hand, and which James present pretty fair in the video. The Villain was 3-betting in a multiway pot, he used a turn size, that looked strong, and he acted instantaneously on all streets. Add all this up, and for me this is a good exploitable fold. I think, the Villain has adjusted to the 80% of the player pool, who would call, and that he is therefore not doing a lot of bluffing on the turn, and possibly not even on the flop in a multiway pot. And by somewhat overfolding the turn, unlike 80% of other players, who do the opposite, Hero is making a profitable adjustment to the game, he play.
fundiver198 what range are you giving hero where he can fold some of his AQ from the game theory arguement? its the 3rd best hand we can show up with after sets which will sometimes be flop check raises. We can have worse Qx, a bunch of 10x, flushdraws, straightdraws, JJ, ect. We are getting 2 to 1, i don't know how you can rationalize folding some of our AQ given the piles of other hands we show up with
Just to clarify, when you ran this through GTO software did you run it with hero having ONLY AQ...or with hero holding a range of hands? I have a sneaky suspicion which method was used...
I did not use any software just some simple head calculation. I gave Hero a 15% PRF from UTG and assumed, he call the 3-bet 20% of the time (fold 70% and 4-bet 10%), call the flop bet 60% of the time and stack of 50% of the time on the turn. These are all very reasonable numbers in my opinion and mean, that Hero need to stack off with around 1,0% of hands. I assume, KK-AA gets 4-bet preflop as part of the 10% 4-betting range, which leave 9 combos of sets as the top of Heros range and 12 combos of AQ as the next hand, he can select to call with. 9 combos is less than 1,0% of starting hands, but 21 combos is more than 1,0% leaving AQ as a hand, where he should do a bit of both. I dont see any need for having a check-raising range on the flop given, that a check-call leave only a pot sized bet left, so Hero can essentially always get it in on the river, if he want to. I am not saying, this calculation is perfectly correct or true, but I think, it is close enough to put us on the right track.
For my own fun i did the combinatorics on this myself by hand. Im excluding AK and QQ from range because we should 4bet those. Im also excluding flop check raise for reasons mentioned earlier. Assuming we call the flop cbet with all 10x+ hands, open enders and flush draws we show up OTT with 58 combos. If we take the "implied price" of 2:1 (cuz we are never just calling) we can only fold 50% of the time to this turn bet, meaning we need 29 calling combos. TT, 88, Q10s gets us 8. We need 21 more. AQ and KQ are the next hands up in out range, and we have 24 of those. Easy call using minimum defense frequency as our benchmark.
Nice discussion. It makes one thing apparent to me: I often do not take V's stack-size into consideration because I would have called. But forcing them to commit their stack is obviously a better play.
@@karabomasibi2331 i think 10s would in position even against a UTG open and even hands like JKc, maybe even 79c / 56c. you should be 3bet bluffing your low suited connectors more VS UTG open as you fold out more hands that have you crushed 4s / 5s / 6s so i dont think its unreasonable for the BTN to have some combo draws also.
i find this fold nitty too, especially if we're aware of the SPR we would create by calling the pre-flop 3bet. We go to the flop with an SPR of roughly 3, meaning that I -personally- would stack off any way or another given that we have top pair top kicker. Indeed, we might lose this hand couple times, however, that's why we should have a bankroll.
I think there is some consideration to 4 bet with AQ in this situation since the BB is capped with the call, and decent button players will have more of a wider range to 3 bet with with strong suited connectors like J10s or 910s, as well as KQs to balance out their traditional strong 3 betting range due to equity hands being strong when they have position and can easily continue with club draws, gut shots, and open enders.
I think hero needs to make the decision on the flop because the flop bet creates a two to one situation on the turn. The BB calling the 3bet ruined the hand. Folding pre-flop is a nitty option, but it is a cheap option that avoids this flop situation.
I put villain on something pretty strong, but he didn't slow down with a Q on the board, which would absolutely hit hero's range more likely than his own. It's either the nuts or a bluff, and in the situation with the brick 4d turn, I call. You've got showdown equity, 2pair equity, and you've gotta depend on reads to determine if there's a last club or the board pairs on the river. In that situation, I might minraise. Charge draws. J9 got there, but is that 3bet range? Nah. Minraise.
Line is super strong could easily be pocket kings or aces, i think king jack of clubs would take the same line and it would make sense, although they should be shoving the turn for fold equity
Based on most of your general advice regarding SPR, I think it can be fairly summarized that flopping TPTK is automatic stack off against villain with 3.01 SPR. If his range pre-flop is only AA and KK, hero can't flat call 3bet, am I not correct?
Its not, that his range for 3-betting preflop is only KK-AA. Its that, his range for 3-betting preflop AND C-betting the flop in a multiway pot with at least one likely fishy player, AND betting again on the turn, when he get action, AND not thinking about it, AND not going all in but using a bet slicer button to bet 64% pot, might well be only KK-AA and sets, or at least with a super high density of these hands.
@@fundiver198 at these stakes? This could be any pocket, suited connectors, A10. The only thing we really know it isn't is air bluff. Over say, 100 times in this spot, your queens produce more value than you'll lose to sets/over
@Allen Albright if you're on a table where the average player will only attack the blinds with kings+ you should be smashing that table with aggression to a degree that you can afford to pay this off when it's wrong.
I'm much more of a tournament player than cash, and all I can say is that without specific info on villain I am folding here the majority of the time. At the level I play people just aren't double barrelling enough for this to be long term profitable. I think they will call a lot with AK, but not bluff. Especially in a situation where SPR is nothing and i've called a 3 bet and 2/3 pot flop bet. They are not bluffing here.
KQ is not part of a normal 4-5% 3-betting range. Sure its possible, BTN could be a wide 3-better, but we dont have that knowledge, so we need to rely on general player pool tendencies. Also many nits and tags would pot control with KQ on this board in a 3-bet pot realizing, that they lose to AQ, and they dont beat much, that would give them action, other than some draws.
Exactly. I just don't believe that the average player double barrels at 2/3 pot with a medium value hand. It's either the nuts or air, and it's not air enough times to always call. I know that SplitSuit isn't a big proponent of balance though.
Actually balance is the main argument for committing on the turn, because if we always fold AQ, we are folding to much somewhere along the line. So when James conclude, that folding is to nitty, he is taking a balance or GTO approach to the situation. In tournaments you need to be more conservative when calling in big pots, because the value of increasing your chip stack with 50% is less than the damage inflicted by decreasing it 50%. So as a tournament player it makes more sense to fold in a spot like this. But even in a micro stakes cash game, I think, Hero made a good exploitable fold. We need this to be a bluff around 40% of the time to just break even, and is he really bluffing that much? Maybe he is, but in my opinion most likely not with the limited info, we have on him. This is also part of the reason, who I dont like Zoom all that much. At regular cash tables you pretty quickly get an idea, if someone is wild and out of line, or if someone is playing particularly nitty. And having that information makes the turn decision so much easier.
I think I (as almost exclusively a cash player) have the very opposite problem you have: I get smashed in tournaments because I am used to make calls based on pods odds and ranges, not ICM. That means I call too light and get hammmered. I guess if we two were to face off against each other you'd value bet me out of any tourney while I would run you over in cash games.
I think folding is too nitty. Due to the BBs preflop call, we are getting really great pot odds to call villain's 3-bet. We'd only need 23% to make a call, and that's not even considering the strong implied odds we're getting against his overpair-heavy range. Thus, we should be calling really wide, meaning we have a pretty wide range of about 80-100 combos heading into the flop. I am not saying we need to call with the exact min-defense freq here or that we even need to be perfectly balanced. But considering we only have about 7 or 8 better combos than AQ here, we'd be folding more than 90% of all our hands here against two normal bets. You won't get away with that. Not even at 2nl.
Think it this way - if Hero can't afford putting more money on a brick turn by the way then he should fold preflop or on the flop (the later sounds ridiculous right!). Otherwise his investments preflop+flop does not make any sense. It's the same as if Hero could just hand over 55 cents to the villain without playing the hand. If folding on the flop is freakin ridiculous why folding on a brick turn is NOT ridiculous?
Because people will quite often fire a single shell as a bluff but not follow it up with a dubble barrel. Just ask yourself, if you C-bet the flop as a bluff and get action, do you always continue on a blank turn? Of course you dont, and neither do other players. So the fact, he bet again on the turn, and this time a committing bet, does change the situation. We can still call, and in real time I might well end up doing that especially at 2NL, because I would get into some kind of "WTF its only 1,3$, its the price of nothing, and I dont care, if I lose" mentality. But the fact of the matter is, we only beat a bluff, and we need him to be bluffing around 40% of the time to just break even. And do you really - deeply honest - think this is a bluff 40% of the time given his sizing, his speed of reaction, and the fact he C-bet in a multiway pot, where the 3 player is likely to have calling station tendencies or a very strong range, since he cold called a 3-bet from the BB?
Villain may have zero bluffs and value bet these hands: QQ+, TT, AQ, KQ. Against this range AQo is 41.75%. Secondly, villain's bluff has to work 40% of the time for zero equity hands only. Should villain be semi-bluffing with AK against made hands it must work maybe around 25%. However, very often he may be against bunch of straight/flush draws, in that case his bet is turning into a value bet (perhaps a surprising fact). So vs this mix of made/draw hands an AK would need a fold equity from moderate to almost none (depending on opponent's range). Speaking of the field tendencies. The overall degree of aggression has increased even at 2NL. Self-explanatory. My point in a previous comment was about being consistent with decisions. If Hero always folds top of his range halfway probably he should stop playing poker unless he makes appropriate adjustments to his game. Poker is not a place for making donations. There's just no way for Hero to recoup such losses. Appreciate any comments, open for discussion. Cheers and happy grinding (c) ;)
That is true, but 3-betting AQ and KQ against an UTG open require a very aggressive 3-betting strategy, which the average player at 2NL just dont have. Sure as you move up to say 10 NL or higher, you will find more good players, who put you in tough spots by being aggressive not only, when they have it, but also when they dont. But especially at 2NL the regs are usually very face up, and you can fold in a spot like this and be right the majority of the time. Mind you this is because, the Villain seem to be a reg. If we had any indication, he was a fun player, then its a total different story.
He started with just over a full stack, he used reasonable bet sizing preflop and on the flop, he apparently used a bet slicer button, which he set himself to 64% pot, and he did not take time to think about his decisions. These are all indications, he is likely a reg. Also the reg/fish ratio on PokerStars is at least 4:1. So unless we have fish tells like a short stack, limping into the pot or weird bet sizes, we should always assume, that an unknown player is a reg. Mind you reg does not mean, he is a world class player. It just mean, he is at least trying to win, and he is generally on the tighter and more value oriented side of the spectrum.
When you don't know the guy i think you have to call in principle here, just to see how this guy plays, and what he is capable of. I have seen many times people taking this line like bet bet bet with Ak on these kind of board. I have done it myself many times also.
Surely if a call is break even its a profitable call if you factor in bluffs too, and also the fact it puts people off bluffing you if they see you calling more.
The most valuable information not talked about is that the stakes are micro and it's a table with only 6 players. These factors are huge indicators of shoving. If Phil Ivey is doing that to you, you might consider a fold.
I think villain has no J9 here at all; flush draws and str8 draws like AK and AJs will all behave like this and though he will have 6 KK, 3AA, 1QQ, 3TT, and 2 QTs for 15 value combos, he has easily 15 bluff combos. Those can’t fold now to a shove, but they can fold on a brick river if you call. So I shove online, and at a live game I fold if I know villain to be a nit who doesn’t bluff.
Sick spot. Much harder to figure out online that live. Always folding to the old man, never folding to the young one. Why didn't you talk about frequency James? I feel like that's a huge part of this hand. Hero's calling range seems very face up if we're not exploring the 4bet/fold of AQo and therefore can just be dubbed on all day, especially if we're folding TPTK no bluff blockers.
I honestly don't think that KJ or a non AcKc hand is here. Sure, Villain would be 3betting the top of his range pretty often preflop here, but consider the speed with which he acted. Consider the willingness to leave himself with something remaining (which he wouldn't do if there was no chance he doesn't get outdrawn). You say that you expect him to just shove on the flop to get the most fold equity, but he's the effective stack, so risking his tournament life for a bluff seems reckless. I agree that calling is not the move here, but I'm not risking a 6th of my stack on the hopes that Villain is wider than he should be. The whole table's been described as pretty tight; I see AA and KK most likely here. AcKc may be here, and possibly even pocket Queens for the trips. I wouldn't c-bet a draw in a multi-way pot, personally. What would've helped would be a 4bet on Hero's part preflop. If Villain continues, then it's a definite fold here. Otherwise, it's up for debate. That c-bet really only allows for maybe a quarter of his range to be bluffs. With 9 combos of straight bluff AK, 12 combos of AA and KK, and 1 combo of AcKc, for him to make that c-bet at that size would be losing money from a GTO standpoint. Add that on top of the decrease in fold equity from there being multiple potential callers, his hand *has* to be weighted more towards over pairs, trips and the nut flush draw as a semibluff, which is only one combo out of a potential fourteen, which causes him to be bluffing *less* often than he should be with a bet size that big. Basically, the bet's SUPER polarizing but there's too much evidence pointing to the fact that he could have it compared to the amount that points to the possibility of him not having it, not the least of which being that potentially -EV c-bet from his perspective. The only good thing going for Hero is the favorable SPR, but again, I'm not doubling a Villain up just because I have a low SPR. The cold-caller's call preflop may have lead to the opportunity for more bluffs, but I'd assume the bluff would be a flush draw than a non-club premium hand
I kind of wish this had just gone to showdown so I could know whether or not my analysis was correct. But I'm definitely finding more folds here than shoves
lots of players at these stakes on PS Zoom raise and call big 3bets with trash hands like 65s, 8Ts. I would say that the V in this has 2 pair or overpair.
Am I the only one who would just put him all in on the flop? Why wait? He's gonna bluff the turn with all his draws anyway so just save time since I'm never folding.
Split this was a ZOOM hand.... Its pretty obvious it was KK+ , at 2 NL players are rarely 3betting vs UTG raise with trash hands PD: ZOOM !!!!! Fast fold , Next hand
I played hundread of thousands of hands in Zoom NL2, I made over 1000 dollars there. I would never fold here. If he has KK/AA, I take a note and reload. Otherwise, I have seen stupid crazy bluffs with AKo or worst. Some Brazilians Russians and Chineses are litterally giving you money on those tables...
Of course I could be wrong, but KQ or draws like AcKc could be barreling the same way. I call and then check on river because he's shoving his value hands as well as his air bluffs.
@@Noashakra You may be right but in my experience 4 hands out of 5 this is KKs+ just the way he bet, there are some nutcases out there for sure, I been in this spot before with QQ and been super scared I was going to be coolered and it turns out the person 3 bet me with A 10o, hit top pair with 10's and went crazy on it, sometimes you got to call down hands you don't feel comfortable with, I probably missed out on value sometimes by check raising people who are either bluffing or repping strength just because I wanted to know where I stood in the hand. I can get behind logic of shoving or folding, for me personally depends how much the villians stack is, the lower the more likely I'd call this situation, I guess Poker is a game for the brave and not being afraid is a hard thing to master for the micros.
who's not going to bet that turn with AK or JJ? pretty hard to know someone only 3bets AA/KK in zoom -- on a side note, people (including splitsuit) think it's crazy, but I'd rather just fold or 4-bet preflop. Fold if they're deep stacked, Raise if they're from Russia or South America, lol
Just exited tourney early with this. Had aqs and 3 bet it. Old man who had me covered and 4 x behind put me all in. I called, his ako my aqs, had a flush draw sweat for me but didn’t hold. Bad feels man.
Yo, would you say Red Dead Redemption poker is a solid way of playing poker or is it considered amateurish? I have like a 95% win rate and I'm wondering if that makes me good or not.
While it seems nitty to fold here (especially at these limits), I disagree that we can go much wider than KK+ for his range. There is simple no basis for that, based purely on how hand played out.
I think there is no good answer here. I played months of 2NL Zoom for various reasons :D so I know this player pool very well (17bb/100 on 200k+ hands 4tabling). The average player at 2NL Zoom is very nitty (and nothing compared to 2NL regular table or any live table, it's 2018 not 2005 anymore) when it comes to bluffing especially multiway. I don't think "can't fold the top of my range" (GTO approach) can be applied in this player pool. 99% of the time players just have what they represent because they just don't have enough bluffs, they don't play GTO, they play a nitty game, at least the "regulars". You bump into the more aggressive ones from time to time but that's the exception. How I would see this situation: BU vs UTG 3bet is around 4% in this pool. Cbetting in single raised multiway pot is around 33%, 25% in 3bet pots. Villain bets 2/3 pot into two players very fast: I fold the flop, next hand. :D Sounds silly but that's the way you build your bankroll in Zoom, not by reacting to others (very nitty and tight ranges) but by winning a lot of small pots, making them reacting to you. I learned it the hard way. I know the upswingpoker approach, they're calling stations, they say the same (can't fold this, can't fold that) but yes, you can. People here don't have 20+% bluffing ranges. I would say up to Zoom 16NL you can fold here. Zoom 25NL is where the game starts to be interesting but not by much. That's just the way multiway pots work at microstakes.
Should the Hero have folded preFlop? The stack sizes after calling 3 bet means we are gonna be 5 to 1 spr on flop. A committing bet. The Villain has position and AQo is not amazing hand to begin with. If i call a 3 bet i usually want a hand that is atleast suited so that i can call another bet in flop. I would have folded preflop to a 3 bet. Is this fold too nit-ish?
I think it's a bit too tight. The cold-call from the BB is either a.) a weak player who simply likes their hand or b.) a normal player with a very narrow range. I make the assumption, at this limit, that it is option A more often and as such I think folding is leaving money on the table. Now, you could certainly answer that the money left isn't worth fighting for...or even list assumptions that make folding clearly superior...but in this exact spot I don't fold.
Completely agree with the BB being most likely a fishy player, who like his hand, and dont care if he have to put in 4 or 19 cents to see a flop. Also if we fold AQ to a 3-bet at 6-max, it will create a frequency issue preflop, especially if we are running a LAG playing style. Maybe its not important at 2NL Zoom, where it takes forever to pick up a sample on someone. But in other games you dont want to end up as a target, because every reg see you as a guy with a very high fold to 3-bet on their HUD.
hello! QUESTION PLEASE,, ive been playing for years but just now getting into more gto,, im naturally an aggressive player and has served me well but i e noticed that since i started studying ranges etc its slowed me down as far as aggression because i seem to always assign them made hands,, like. 8J7r flop and i bet as the pfr and they raise,, since 77 88 and possibly JJ are in their range i always level myself into thinking they have a set (or a big J hopefully but) because these low stakes live abc players dont raise alot postflop witbout the goods,, obv theres straight draws and big J's but my question is, how do we stop auto thinking he has a monster ,, is it soley because theres more Jx and 2pairs and straight draws in the range? like if theres more missed hands than made hands we continue always or,,, thanks in advance!
Exactly what I thought. KQs is not generally a 3bet hand, but how many 2nl players know that? They are thinking, "ooh! two picture cards! time to bet (or raise)!"
But raising narrows your range and makes it less likely you hit this board. Calling keeps your range wide and makes it more likely you hit it. For example, you are very unlikely to 3bet preflop with J9, but you would definitely call on the button. You have pretty much announced with your preflop 3bet here, "I don't have a straight on the turn!"
Shouldn't we be analysing our minimum defense frequency and reason that folding here with AQ is hugely exploitative because we already have tons of worst hands we are folding and it is just pure +EV to bluff us with any holding?
Hey James, I am fairly new to playing live poker (played online, but never for real money) and now that I have a decent paying job I've played a couple times, most recently a couple days ago. I have a hand I want to run by you I played in 1/2 NL at my local casino just to make sure I played it correctly. Should I shoot you an email, or should I just post it on here? Thanks, Zach
I have 910 of clubs in early position and I 3bet one limper. The flop comes 24J with 2 spades and one club. The first guy to act shoves enough to cover me. Because I only have 3 to a straight and flush I fold. Is this the right play?
Playing 5/10, I''m SB with 2000 and the villain is button with 2000 also. I have AKo Preflop villain opens to 25 and I reraise to 70 Flop comes KcTd9d I check, villain bets 150, I call, thinking I've got the best hand and the villain might bet another street. Turn comes 7c I check again, still pretty confident I'm ahead most of the time and villain shoves all in. I'm not exactly sure what would make him shove 200BB deep. I don't think villain would play sets or two pair like this, misses out on too much value. I fold thinking while I can be ahead, I cannot make sense of this line of play, it's very possible he does have a monster hand and is trying to make me call with my strong hand.
The fold is fine in my opinion. Looks to me like something strong playing scared because of the very wet board. However your preflop 3-bet should be larger, something around 100 would be fine, especially when you are this deep. On the flop I am also not totally on board with checking. Its a very wet board, and I want to get value now from all his gutshots and whatever not, that might check back and take a free card.
I'm fine with you folding on the turn in this situation because there were too many ways you can be beat. With your opponent on the button, he could easily have raised with QJ and have the nuts, or TT and have a set, among other combos. Your problem is that you reraised pre-flop and then checked/called the flop when you hit top pair top kicker. With flush and straight draws likely, you should never slow play your equity. Also by not betting out on the flop, your opponent's bet was fairly standard and didn't give you any real information on which to evaluate his hand. He could be strong, medium, or on a good draw. All you know at this point is that he liked his hand. By betting out instead, you would have forced him to react to you, and if he raised then you would know there may be trouble. If you choose to check here and he makes a fairly standard bet, you must check raise him to protect your equity and force him to react, again giving you the chance to get more information on how strong he really is. If he still pushes all-in afterward, then you can be pretty sure he isn't just bluffing overcards. On the other hand, your bet and/or raise may make him fold marginal hands or limit betting on a stronger one, saving you money in the long run. And let's face it. It sucks losing a good hand, but it really sucks losing a good hand while never even knowing for sure if you were actually beat!
sorry but i have to comment that this hand went all wrong from the flop...Calling this bet on flop is a total mistake. Either you reraise his bet either you fold. After all he could be betting a fl.draw, or cbetting an AK. If he had an AK by calling the flop you simply make him think that you are after the flush or an open end str8 with KJ...He sees that turn didnt give something dangerous and fired a bigger one. With few words it is push or fold on the flop. Not on turn.
Hero played it wrong and put himself in a difficult position. Bankroll management is for bad runs and bad beats. No amount of bankroll is going to weather the hero’s poker career... Hero is a fish, who specialises in putting himself in a situation where he has to fold top pair top kicker out of position. Lol. Happy grinding indeed.
Is there any merrit to 4 betting pre based on the following logic: 1) BB is almost always a fish and if he's bad enough to call a 3 bet, hes probably bad enough to call a 4 bet. I'd love to have him all to myself 2) If button is reg, my 4 bets screams strength. How happy is he right now if he doesnt have AA or KK? If he is p-fish im in trouble, but, if this is aggrotard this can be a great stack off. 3) I like 4 bet these types of hands once in a while. It makes life very difficult going forward for my opponent going forward when they have hands like 10-10 - QQ and AK vs my 4 bets. I can get more value on AA and KK 4) As long as they dont have AA, im not completely dead
I'll admit id be more worried about the 2nd point. The only other thing I could imagine BB being, is a nit with 10-10-QQ or AK and he didnt want to 4 bet. Thats a very small hand range for him to get in this spot with, so I'm pretty sold on bb being fishy. My buffer for this blowing up in my face, is that its not my default play, just something I do once in a hwile, so my opponents cant put me squarely on KK+ when I 4 bet. Also, once the table has seen the 4 bet with AQ if it gets shown down, I'm planning on getting paid off the rest of the session. Also, thank you very much for your vids. I regularly enjoy them and you've added some real value to my game
It could be a nit not wanting to 4-bet though. I had a very similar hand, when I played 2NL Zoom 6-max a few month ago as a sort of reintroduction to online poker. A 25BB stack opened from UTG, I was BTN with AQ and 3-bet him to 12 BB hoping to isolate him and get it all in preflop against him. Now however the BB wanted to play as well, so he cold called my 12 BB, and UTG called as well putting half his stack in the middle. Pretty awkward spot to say the least, but I got saved by the flop, which came Q, 9, 4. UTG now donked all in for his last 13 BB, and I decided to just call to induce BB to come along as well, and he made a pretty sizable raise. I called, because he should not really have an overpair here, and he should not really flat with 44 or 99 with a short stack behind him, so what could he really have, that beat me? We got it all in on the turn, and BB turned over the one remaining combo of QQ. This is of course just a massive cooler, but it goes to show, that there are some insanely nitty players at 2NL, who are not even comfortable 4-betting QQ against someone with a 25 BB stack and someone isolating that player from BTN.
scared nit is about the only other thing it could be besides a p fish. Good regs are 4 betting or folding. aggrotard probably 4 bet. I do think its much more likely to be fish though, bc the range a nit is flatting with is so small like 10-10-QQ and AK (sometimes)
James (SplitSuit) You’re absolutely right for other stakes. But this is Zoom NL2. The game is completely different! I played millions of hands at this stake and can guarantee it’s by far the best strategy at this specific level/format. instagram.com/p/Bl5uGL1FMBv/
James (SplitSuit) I wanted to reach a monthly 10bb/100 win rate before moving up. It just took me crazy long to finally achieve it 😅 The good news is that I became kind of a specialist of Zoom NL2 lol.
BluFF AQ is still a winning hand. In a tournament where the stacks are smaller it’s quite powerful. But at cash micro stakes 100bb deep and especially Zoom I find it particularly awful when you have to play it in a 3bet pot and out of position. That’s why I recommend folding it preflop against a 3bet OOP. Villains ranges are very strong in these spots. QQ+ AQ+ I guess. Therefore AQo is in a really bad shape against those hands.
How can you say that an opponent has aks of a specific suit within his range but not the other ak's as well. I think you were just showing a worst case scenario type of thing but in real time probly going to put all ak's in this guy's range unless you think he wouldn't take this line without the flush draw
If you fold here why are you even playing the hand? Your range has QQ sometimes, 10s, 88 and then AQ. If you are always folding AQ here, you are folding way to much to these bets (like ridiculously too much). You would only ever be calling like 25-30% of your range, assuming your fold out pocket-pairs and no clubs AK on the flop. Would need the Ace of clubs to ever consider folding here.
He did. Its 2NL, and he started with more than 2$, which is the maximum buyin. He also bet 64% pot on flop and turn, which mean, he is using a bet slicer button and set it to that size himself, because its not a PokerStars standard size. Everything about his actions scream reg not fish.
@Allen Albright I agree although hard to fold AQ,I mean the guy reraises a utg open and then bets into 2 players(one being a 3bet cold caller in the blinds) on a board thats bad for a cbet bluff being so connected, then bets again on turn,I mean what bluffs are here really,is he doing this with any old Ako? I see way more value combos here than bluffs. Ive seen a lot of splitsuits videos and i get the feeling he plays way higher stakes online,because at low stakes or live you are not seeing the average guy do stuff like this,I mean GTO and theoretically correct poker is fine but in the real world people are way underbluffing.
Of course, but for them, the range was 100% KK/AA so it was an auto fold for them. I don't know how you can exclude (at least) AQs from the range of the player... You can look another comment above mine...
Hero here!
I was really excited to see this hand being analysed by my first and favourite poker coach. Thank you, James! You did a great job again.
I also enjoyed reading the comment section from this video. There were some really interesting points of view, arguments and questions that I would like to reply.
Making a decision on the turn was hard for me, mostly because of the lack of information I had. But I did come with an answer based on the little things I could obtain from villain as well as my experience from a large number of hands played on 2NL Zoom. It's true the pool here contains a lot of fish, but it also contains a lot of regs.
I consider villain was most likely a regular. His starting stack was over 100 BBs, he did a well-sized 3bet preflop (3.5X), but most importantly - he used a predefined 64% pot bet button on flop and turn. Fish don't usually do that.
I will now review my own hand. I think my preflop play was pretty standard. I'm not a big fan of 4-betting AQo unless I know my opponent is super-aggresive. Folding was also not such a good idea given the 3.21 : 1 pot odds.
Check to the raiser on the flop is also the standard line I take. Now here comes an interesting spot. Villain's C-bet on the flop didn't give away too much about his hand. I think his range here resembles his preflop range. In my opinion he most likely has something like TT+, AQ+, and maybe some weaker combos. He can definetely have other combos. Given the fact that I'm ahead of AK, JJ and other possible combos (KQs, 99, Axs, etc.) I decided to call and wait for both the turn card and his action. The turn card could change a lot of things. It could have been a club, an ace, a queen, etc. which would have changed the relative hand strength of both of us. That's one reason for my call on the flop. The other reason was to get some more information from villain. Regulars here do C-Bet a lot on that flop. But they do not double-barrel bluff that much. A check-check scenario on the turn was also to be considered. If it wasn't for these reasons, I would have fold or raised on the flop.
Checking the turn was also kind of standard for me. And here comes the decisive point. I would never just call his bet. Either fold or shove. And it all depends on hand-reading. My guess after his turn bet: most probably AA, KK, QQ, AKc, AQ; possibly AK, JJ, TT, AJc and 5% KQ, 99 or some crazy combos. Folding was the best solution from my perspective.
Some of you really wanted to know what cards was the villain holding. I found this highly irrelevant. If he showed KK, it wouldn't mean my fold was good. If he showed a bluff, it wouldn't mean my fold was bad. We just have to think in terms of ranges.
To conclude: I think villain was rather a regular than a fish and his 64% pot bet on the turn was much rather a value bet than a bluff.
Thank you all for your time! Good luck out there and happy grinding!
Totally on board with everything, you say, and your decisions in the hand.
Com’on. Ur play was awful. u say “I don’t have much information on the V and his range didn’t change much up to the turn”, then go and get that information!
You’ve got TPTK and play it like flush/street draw or hit into a small pair. If I would’ve been on the D button, I’d easily bluff u with the same bet sizes with 27o or some garbage like that, since ur play didn’t show any kind of hand strength.
Anyway, what u should’ve done is to donk the V on the flop/turn. Considering how it all was played, u should’ve donked on the turn and then u would have the information on the V’s hand. And if the V would really have had Kk+, he would have just reraised ur bet, otherwise he would fold. No draws on his hand for sure.
I have no idea how u guys analyze hands without taking into consideration the way a Hero plays hands. Since Vs also play based on the hand range a Hero represents.
That was a really bad fold dude ngl...
The guy had 5-6 ...and the river was a 7
He raised me with 5-6 honey - idiot player
@@Generalbas1972 Juanda had trips.
Its Pokerstars.
Opponent probably had 84o and the river was gonna be another 4
I really like this type of video, where you drill down on one action in one hand.
Loved the hand analysis James!!! The way you break it down and show us how to use Flopzilla for off table study is absolutely incredible thank you!
I'd go down in flames with that hand. V would have to be a LOT deeper for me to fold there.
Hey man thanks so much for your channel. Its really helped me clean up my leaks. I've always been able to play exploitative and make good decisions/reads post flop, but I was playing way to many hands and putting myself in to many bad positions. This is a game changer in changing my level of play. Thank you so much really.
I love ur hands reviews few who can explainit like u, even someone like me who is from no speaking english country can understand u so easly , thanks u
Love from morocco
This is actually a really interesting hand and quiz. The first thing to notice is, that when James constructed Villains range in Flopzilla, at no point did he even discuss the possibility of Villain betting a worse hand for value. Which I completely agree with. So even we have top pair top kicker, we are still in a pure bluff catching situation.
This mean, that if we have no idea, what the Villain is up to, we should revert to game theory to determine the range, we give him action with. I did a rough estimation of this, and the answer assuming a 15% VPIP from UTG is, that we should do a bit of both with AQ on the turn.
If we fold all 12 combos of AQ, the Villain can exploit us by bluffing with all his AK and whatever else, but if we call all 12 combos of AQ, he can exploit us by never bluffing at all. So ideally we should call with those hands, that dont block his bluff but fold those, who do. And this mean mostly calling with this hand, since it dont block his flush draws.
And this is where the quiz get really interesting, because with 80% saying they will call, there is good reason to think, the tendency of the average player pool is to call to much in a spot like this. Because I dont think the average 2NL player is advanced enough to fold AQ with the A of diamonds but call with those without. Or even flip a coin about it, when he have AQ with no diamond, as the answer might be.
And because it is like that, the players, who will enjoy most success, will be those, who have a low bluffing frequency as the Villain in the hand. And naturally people, who continue to play, will learn from experience and do, what work in their game but stop doing, what does not work.
So there is good reason to assume, that most micro stakes regs have adjusted to the player pools average tendency to become a bit to sticky with TPTK in a spot like this by not bluffing a lot of the turn if at all. To this we can add the info, we actually have in the hand, and which James present pretty fair in the video. The Villain was 3-betting in a multiway pot, he used a turn size, that looked strong, and he acted instantaneously on all streets.
Add all this up, and for me this is a good exploitable fold. I think, the Villain has adjusted to the 80% of the player pool, who would call, and that he is therefore not doing a lot of bluffing on the turn, and possibly not even on the flop in a multiway pot. And by somewhat overfolding the turn, unlike 80% of other players, who do the opposite, Hero is making a profitable adjustment to the game, he play.
fundiver198 what range are you giving hero where he can fold some of his AQ from the game theory arguement? its the 3rd best hand we can show up with after sets which will sometimes be flop check raises. We can have worse Qx, a bunch of 10x, flushdraws, straightdraws, JJ, ect. We are getting 2 to 1, i don't know how you can rationalize folding some of our AQ given the piles of other hands we show up with
Just to clarify, when you ran this through GTO software did you run it with hero having ONLY AQ...or with hero holding a range of hands? I have a sneaky suspicion which method was used...
I did not use any software just some simple head calculation. I gave Hero a 15% PRF from UTG and assumed, he call the 3-bet 20% of the time (fold 70% and 4-bet 10%), call the flop bet 60% of the time and stack of 50% of the time on the turn. These are all very reasonable numbers in my opinion and mean, that Hero need to stack off with around 1,0% of hands.
I assume, KK-AA gets 4-bet preflop as part of the 10% 4-betting range, which leave 9 combos of sets as the top of Heros range and 12 combos of AQ as the next hand, he can select to call with. 9 combos is less than 1,0% of starting hands, but 21 combos is more than 1,0% leaving AQ as a hand, where he should do a bit of both.
I dont see any need for having a check-raising range on the flop given, that a check-call leave only a pot sized bet left, so Hero can essentially always get it in on the river, if he want to. I am not saying, this calculation is perfectly correct or true, but I think, it is close enough to put us on the right track.
We do block his AK/J/10 bluffs. I agree that it's a marginal decision, but I think folding is ok here some of the time.
For my own fun i did the combinatorics on this myself by hand. Im excluding AK and QQ from range because we should 4bet those. Im also excluding flop check raise for reasons mentioned earlier. Assuming we call the flop cbet with all 10x+ hands, open enders and flush draws we show up OTT with 58 combos. If we take the "implied price" of 2:1 (cuz we are never just calling) we can only fold 50% of the time to this turn bet, meaning we need 29 calling combos. TT, 88, Q10s gets us 8. We need 21 more. AQ and KQ are the next hands up in out range, and we have 24 of those. Easy call using minimum defense frequency as our benchmark.
I think the fold is okay as long as you assign a range for villain. 3bet vs UTG is pretty tight on zoom
Love these quiz videos, Split. Keep up the great work!
Cheers James =)
this video was amazing...keep doing these kind of videos...it helps alot seriously. Especially for who don't have access to flopzila ( like myself )
Checkout equilab. It free and pretty cool. Easy to see range and equity
Nice discussion. It makes one thing apparent to me: I often do not take V's stack-size into consideration because I would have called. But forcing them to commit their stack is obviously a better play.
Thanks for the videos I can watch and rewatch them to improve…
Why didn't you consider AQ in their range?
Stakes also need to be considered, at lower stakes I could see a much more limited range for the quick C-Bets
6:20 wouldn't villian want to bluff AK combos without a club (given that if we call, he can still beat club draws)?
If he did bluff non-club AK combos too, how should that influence hero's line?
@ James. In response to your request for feedback: Yes, please, do continue to post these two part quizzes with explanations. Thanks.
Cheers!
Agree, this is a great way to review hands.
Do we also need to consider the possibility that they have trips by having pocket 8s, 10s, 4s, or Qs?
Would that hand 3 bet preflop?
@@karabomasibi2331 i think 10s would in position even against a UTG open and even hands like JKc, maybe even 79c / 56c. you should be 3bet bluffing your low suited connectors more VS UTG open as you fold out more hands that have you crushed 4s / 5s / 6s so i dont think its unreasonable for the BTN to have some combo draws also.
Hi James, I do enjoy this formal of videos. Keep up the great work.
i find this fold nitty too, especially if we're aware of the SPR we would create by calling the pre-flop 3bet. We go to the flop with an SPR of roughly 3, meaning that I -personally- would stack off any way or another given that we have top pair top kicker.
Indeed, we might lose this hand couple times, however, that's why we should have a bankroll.
I think there is some consideration to 4 bet with AQ in this situation since the BB is capped with the call, and decent button players will have more of a wider range to 3 bet with with strong suited connectors like J10s or 910s, as well as KQs to balance out their traditional strong 3 betting range due to equity hands being strong when they have position and can easily continue with club draws, gut shots, and open enders.
I think hero needs to make the decision on the flop because the flop bet creates a two to one situation on the turn.
The BB calling the 3bet ruined the hand. Folding pre-flop is a nitty option, but it is a cheap option that avoids this flop situation.
Love this. This is exactly the sort of thing I need to fine-tune my game. I'm already an above average player, but just barely.
Updates? How’s you now
Lol good question. I love Ur work Dave
I put villain on something pretty strong, but he didn't slow down with a Q on the board, which would absolutely hit hero's range more likely than his own. It's either the nuts or a bluff, and in the situation with the brick 4d turn, I call. You've got showdown equity, 2pair equity, and you've gotta depend on reads to determine if there's a last club or the board pairs on the river. In that situation, I might minraise. Charge draws. J9 got there, but is that 3bet range? Nah. Minraise.
Pocket 8s
Line is super strong could easily be pocket kings or aces, i think king jack of clubs would take the same line and it would make sense, although they should be shoving the turn for fold equity
Based on most of your general advice regarding SPR, I think it can be fairly summarized that flopping TPTK is automatic stack off against villain with 3.01 SPR. If his range pre-flop is only AA and KK, hero can't flat call 3bet, am I not correct?
Its not, that his range for 3-betting preflop is only KK-AA. Its that, his range for 3-betting preflop AND C-betting the flop in a multiway pot with at least one likely fishy player, AND betting again on the turn, when he get action, AND not thinking about it, AND not going all in but using a bet slicer button to bet 64% pot, might well be only KK-AA and sets, or at least with a super high density of these hands.
@@fundiver198 at these stakes? This could be any pocket, suited connectors, A10. The only thing we really know it isn't is air bluff. Over say, 100 times in this spot, your queens produce more value than you'll lose to sets/over
@Allen Albright if you're on a table where the average player will only attack the blinds with kings+ you should be smashing that table with aggression to a degree that you can afford to pay this off when it's wrong.
I'm much more of a tournament player than cash, and all I can say is that without specific info on villain I am folding here the majority of the time. At the level I play people just aren't double barrelling enough for this to be long term profitable. I think they will call a lot with AK, but not bluff. Especially in a situation where SPR is nothing and i've called a 3 bet and 2/3 pot flop bet. They are not bluffing here.
what if "they are not bluffing" with KQ?
KQ is not part of a normal 4-5% 3-betting range. Sure its possible, BTN could be a wide 3-better, but we dont have that knowledge, so we need to rely on general player pool tendencies. Also many nits and tags would pot control with KQ on this board in a 3-bet pot realizing, that they lose to AQ, and they dont beat much, that would give them action, other than some draws.
Exactly. I just don't believe that the average player double barrels at 2/3 pot with a medium value hand. It's either the nuts or air, and it's not air enough times to always call. I know that SplitSuit isn't a big proponent of balance though.
Actually balance is the main argument for committing on the turn, because if we always fold AQ, we are folding to much somewhere along the line. So when James conclude, that folding is to nitty, he is taking a balance or GTO approach to the situation.
In tournaments you need to be more conservative when calling in big pots, because the value of increasing your chip stack with 50% is less than the damage inflicted by decreasing it 50%. So as a tournament player it makes more sense to fold in a spot like this.
But even in a micro stakes cash game, I think, Hero made a good exploitable fold. We need this to be a bluff around 40% of the time to just break even, and is he really bluffing that much? Maybe he is, but in my opinion most likely not with the limited info, we have on him.
This is also part of the reason, who I dont like Zoom all that much. At regular cash tables you pretty quickly get an idea, if someone is wild and out of line, or if someone is playing particularly nitty. And having that information makes the turn decision so much easier.
I think I (as almost exclusively a cash player) have the very opposite problem you have:
I get smashed in tournaments because I am used to make calls based on pods odds and ranges, not ICM. That means I call too light and get hammmered.
I guess if we two were to face off against each other you'd value bet me out of any tourney while I would run you over in cash games.
The quizz idea is recommended
Hey, I'm with the majority and came to the same all in decision raise you came to. Thanks for the flopzilla demonstration
I think folding is too nitty.
Due to the BBs preflop call, we are getting really great pot odds to call villain's 3-bet.
We'd only need 23% to make a call, and that's not even considering the strong implied odds we're getting against his overpair-heavy range. Thus, we should be calling really wide, meaning we have a pretty wide range of about 80-100 combos heading into the flop.
I am not saying we need to call with the exact min-defense freq here or that we even need to be perfectly balanced.
But considering we only have about 7 or 8 better combos than AQ here, we'd be folding more than 90% of all our hands here against two normal bets.
You won't get away with that. Not even at 2nl.
Think it this way - if Hero can't afford putting more money on a brick turn by the way then he should fold preflop or on the flop (the later sounds ridiculous right!). Otherwise his investments preflop+flop does not make any sense. It's the same as if Hero could just hand over 55 cents to the villain without playing the hand. If folding on the flop is freakin ridiculous why folding on a brick turn is NOT ridiculous?
Because people will quite often fire a single shell as a bluff but not follow it up with a dubble barrel. Just ask yourself, if you C-bet the flop as a bluff and get action, do you always continue on a blank turn? Of course you dont, and neither do other players. So the fact, he bet again on the turn, and this time a committing bet, does change the situation.
We can still call, and in real time I might well end up doing that especially at 2NL, because I would get into some kind of "WTF its only 1,3$, its the price of nothing, and I dont care, if I lose" mentality. But the fact of the matter is, we only beat a bluff, and we need him to be bluffing around 40% of the time to just break even.
And do you really - deeply honest - think this is a bluff 40% of the time given his sizing, his speed of reaction, and the fact he C-bet in a multiway pot, where the 3 player is likely to have calling station tendencies or a very strong range, since he cold called a 3-bet from the BB?
Villain may have zero bluffs and value bet these hands: QQ+, TT, AQ, KQ. Against this range AQo is 41.75%.
Secondly, villain's bluff has to work 40% of the time for zero equity hands only. Should villain be semi-bluffing with AK against made hands it must work maybe around 25%. However, very often he may be against bunch of straight/flush draws, in that case his bet is turning into a value bet (perhaps a surprising fact). So vs this mix of made/draw hands an AK would need a fold equity from moderate to almost none (depending on opponent's range).
Speaking of the field tendencies. The overall degree of aggression has increased even at 2NL. Self-explanatory.
My point in a previous comment was about being consistent with decisions. If Hero always folds top of his range halfway probably he should stop playing poker unless he makes appropriate adjustments to his game. Poker is not a place for making donations. There's just no way for Hero to recoup such losses.
Appreciate any comments, open for discussion. Cheers and happy grinding (c) ;)
That is true, but 3-betting AQ and KQ against an UTG open require a very aggressive 3-betting strategy, which the average player at 2NL just dont have. Sure as you move up to say 10 NL or higher, you will find more good players, who put you in tough spots by being aggressive not only, when they have it, but also when they dont.
But especially at 2NL the regs are usually very face up, and you can fold in a spot like this and be right the majority of the time. Mind you this is because, the Villain seem to be a reg. If we had any indication, he was a fun player, then its a total different story.
How did you deduce he's a reg?
He started with just over a full stack, he used reasonable bet sizing preflop and on the flop, he apparently used a bet slicer button, which he set himself to 64% pot, and he did not take time to think about his decisions. These are all indications, he is likely a reg.
Also the reg/fish ratio on PokerStars is at least 4:1. So unless we have fish tells like a short stack, limping into the pot or weird bet sizes, we should always assume, that an unknown player is a reg. Mind you reg does not mean, he is a world class player. It just mean, he is at least trying to win, and he is generally on the tighter and more value oriented side of the spectrum.
How is shoving better than calling? They only call if they beat you and only fold if they don’t
Very helpful. Thank you teacher
When you don't know the guy i think you have to call in principle here, just to see how this guy plays, and what he is capable of. I have seen many times people taking this line like bet bet bet with Ak on these kind of board. I have done it myself many times also.
Surely if a call is break even its a profitable call if you factor in bluffs too, and also the fact it puts people off bluffing you if they see you calling more.
These kinds of videos are great. Please keep making them.
Cheers Anthony!
The most valuable information not talked about is that the stakes are micro and it's a table with only 6 players. These factors are huge indicators of shoving. If Phil Ivey is doing that to you, you might consider a fold.
I think villain has no J9 here at all; flush draws and str8 draws like AK and AJs will all behave like this and though he will have 6 KK, 3AA, 1QQ, 3TT, and 2 QTs for 15 value combos, he has easily 15 bluff combos. Those can’t fold now to a shove, but they can fold on a brick river if you call. So I shove online, and at a live game I fold if I know villain to be a nit who doesn’t bluff.
I dont think you can discount kq and qj at these limits against unknown either.
Just extra combos that swing the margin of error in hero's favor =)
Sick spot. Much harder to figure out online that live. Always folding to the old man, never folding to the young one.
Why didn't you talk about frequency James? I feel like that's a huge part of this hand. Hero's calling range seems very face up if we're not exploring the 4bet/fold of AQo and therefore can just be dubbed on all day, especially if we're folding TPTK no bluff blockers.
Because it's 2NL and if I go down the frequency rabbit hole the video will quickly reach the hour mark lol
Why didn't you mention the J9 as a possibility?
I honestly don't think that KJ or a non AcKc hand is here. Sure, Villain would be 3betting the top of his range pretty often preflop here, but consider the speed with which he acted. Consider the willingness to leave himself with something remaining (which he wouldn't do if there was no chance he doesn't get outdrawn). You say that you expect him to just shove on the flop to get the most fold equity, but he's the effective stack, so risking his tournament life for a bluff seems reckless. I agree that calling is not the move here, but I'm not risking a 6th of my stack on the hopes that Villain is wider than he should be. The whole table's been described as pretty tight; I see AA and KK most likely here. AcKc may be here, and possibly even pocket Queens for the trips. I wouldn't c-bet a draw in a multi-way pot, personally. What would've helped would be a 4bet on Hero's part preflop. If Villain continues, then it's a definite fold here. Otherwise, it's up for debate. That c-bet really only allows for maybe a quarter of his range to be bluffs. With 9 combos of straight bluff AK, 12 combos of AA and KK, and 1 combo of AcKc, for him to make that c-bet at that size would be losing money from a GTO standpoint. Add that on top of the decrease in fold equity from there being multiple potential callers, his hand *has* to be weighted more towards over pairs, trips and the nut flush draw as a semibluff, which is only one combo out of a potential fourteen, which causes him to be bluffing *less* often than he should be with a bet size that big. Basically, the bet's SUPER polarizing but there's too much evidence pointing to the fact that he could have it compared to the amount that points to the possibility of him not having it, not the least of which being that potentially -EV c-bet from his perspective. The only good thing going for Hero is the favorable SPR, but again, I'm not doubling a Villain up just because I have a low SPR. The cold-caller's call preflop may have lead to the opportunity for more bluffs, but I'd assume the bluff would be a flush draw than a non-club premium hand
I kind of wish this had just gone to showdown so I could know whether or not my analysis was correct. But I'm definitely finding more folds here than shoves
I don't get why would u just check call on the flop. You hit top pair top kicker so to me the correct play there was raise on the flop.
When a player has committed that much to the pot and they still have top pair top kicker, folding for another 59 cents is nitty in the extreme.
Exactly 🤷🏻♂️ if you only shove with the nuts you're never going to make any profit out of poker, hell you're not even enjoying the game 🤦🏻♂️
I was right!
Nice job!
Raising him all in. 😑
lots of players at these stakes on PS Zoom raise and call big 3bets with trash hands like 65s, 8Ts. I would say that the V in this has 2 pair or overpair.
Am I the only one who would just put him all in on the flop? Why wait? He's gonna bluff the turn with all his draws anyway so just save time since I'm never folding.
Sounds pretty bad cause he's gonna fold his bluffs - if he's bluffing you want him to bluff again
Split this was a ZOOM hand.... Its pretty obvious it was KK+ , at 2 NL players are rarely 3betting vs UTG raise with trash hands
PD: ZOOM !!!!! Fast fold , Next hand
I agree with Split's toughts on this hand . For sure was a nit fold (prob at 5NL+ FR)
I played hundread of thousands of hands in Zoom NL2, I made over 1000 dollars there. I would never fold here. If he has KK/AA, I take a note and reload. Otherwise, I have seen stupid crazy bluffs with AKo or worst. Some Brazilians Russians and Chineses are litterally giving you money on those tables...
Of course I could be wrong, but KQ or draws like AcKc could be barreling the same way. I call and then check on river because he's shoving his value hands as well as his air bluffs.
@@Noashakra You may be right but in my experience 4 hands out of 5 this is KKs+ just the way he bet, there are some nutcases out there for sure, I been in this spot before with QQ and been super scared I was going to be coolered and it turns out the person 3 bet me with A 10o, hit top pair with 10's and went crazy on it, sometimes you got to call down hands you don't feel comfortable with, I probably missed out on value sometimes by check raising people who are either bluffing or repping strength just because I wanted to know where I stood in the hand.
I can get behind logic of shoving or folding, for me personally depends how much the villians stack is, the lower the more likely I'd call this situation, I guess Poker is a game for the brave and not being afraid is a hard thing to master for the micros.
who's not going to bet that turn with AK or JJ? pretty hard to know someone only 3bets AA/KK in zoom -- on a side note, people (including splitsuit) think it's crazy, but I'd rather just fold or 4-bet preflop. Fold if they're deep stacked, Raise if they're from Russia or South America, lol
Just exited tourney early with this. Had aqs and 3 bet it. Old man who had me covered and 4 x behind put me all in. I called, his ako my aqs, had a flush draw sweat for me but didn’t hold. Bad feels man.
Yo, would you say Red Dead Redemption poker is a solid way of playing poker or is it considered amateurish? I have like a 95% win rate and I'm wondering if that makes me good or not.
While it seems nitty to fold here (especially at these limits), I disagree that we can go much wider than KK+ for his range. There is simple no basis for that, based purely on how hand played out.
yo split suit , from all the cards what makes you think not at all that the villain actually has J9 suited. or even better j9 of clubs.
great stuff. thank you.
I like the quizzes
Surely villain not going all in was a tell, if he had value why wouldn't he just shove?
Love the content man ! Always good stuff
Thanks Blayde =)
That was a lot of “y’alls”
I've clearly been living in Mississippi for far too long =P
Ha! Great videos. Thanks for all the content.
You're very welcome Brad ♥
The game is Texas hold’em. There’s nothing wrong with a southern dialect.
I think there is no good answer here. I played months of 2NL Zoom for various reasons :D so I know this player pool very well (17bb/100 on 200k+ hands 4tabling).
The average player at 2NL Zoom is very nitty (and nothing compared to 2NL regular table or any live table, it's 2018 not 2005 anymore) when it comes to bluffing especially multiway. I don't think "can't fold the top of my range" (GTO approach) can be applied in this player pool. 99% of the time players just have what they represent because they just don't have enough bluffs, they don't play GTO, they play a nitty game, at least the "regulars". You bump into the more aggressive ones from time to time but that's the exception.
How I would see this situation: BU vs UTG 3bet is around 4% in this pool. Cbetting in single raised multiway pot is around 33%, 25% in 3bet pots. Villain bets 2/3 pot into two players very fast: I fold the flop, next hand. :D Sounds silly but that's the way you build your bankroll in Zoom, not by reacting to others (very nitty and tight ranges) but by winning a lot of small pots, making them reacting to you.
I learned it the hard way. I know the upswingpoker approach, they're calling stations, they say the same (can't fold this, can't fold that) but yes, you can. People here don't have 20+% bluffing ranges. I would say up to Zoom 16NL you can fold here. Zoom 25NL is where the game starts to be interesting but not by much. That's just the way multiway pots work at microstakes.
Why not betting top pair top kicker at the flop?
Should the Hero have folded preFlop? The stack sizes after calling 3 bet means we are gonna be 5 to 1 spr on flop. A committing bet. The Villain has position and AQo is not amazing hand to begin with. If i call a 3 bet i usually want a hand that is atleast suited so that i can call another bet in flop. I would have folded preflop to a 3 bet. Is this fold too nit-ish?
I think it's a bit too tight.
The cold-call from the BB is either a.) a weak player who simply likes their hand or b.) a normal player with a very narrow range. I make the assumption, at this limit, that it is option A more often and as such I think folding is leaving money on the table. Now, you could certainly answer that the money left isn't worth fighting for...or even list assumptions that make folding clearly superior...but in this exact spot I don't fold.
Completely agree with the BB being most likely a fishy player, who like his hand, and dont care if he have to put in 4 or 19 cents to see a flop. Also if we fold AQ to a 3-bet at 6-max, it will create a frequency issue preflop, especially if we are running a LAG playing style.
Maybe its not important at 2NL Zoom, where it takes forever to pick up a sample on someone. But in other games you dont want to end up as a target, because every reg see you as a guy with a very high fold to 3-bet on their HUD.
hello! QUESTION PLEASE,, ive been playing for years but just now getting into more gto,, im naturally an aggressive player and has served me well but i e noticed that since i started studying ranges etc its slowed me down as far as aggression because i seem to always assign them made hands,, like. 8J7r flop and i bet as the pfr and they raise,, since 77 88 and possibly JJ are in their range i always level myself into thinking they have a set (or a big J hopefully but) because these low stakes live abc players dont raise alot postflop witbout the goods,, obv theres straight draws and big J's but my question is, how do we stop auto thinking he has a monster ,, is it soley because theres more Jx and 2pairs and straight draws in the range? like if theres more missed hands than made hands we continue always or,,, thanks in advance!
This is just happened to me few minutes ago. I had AQ and I lose to QT
Reload & get back in there =)
I am losing since monday. Even i had 85% to win a hand my opponent always beat me. Even with 83 vs AJ xD
Great video, love this format!
Why not add KQs??????
Exactly what I thought. KQs is not generally a 3bet hand, but how many 2nl players know that? They are thinking, "ooh! two picture cards! time to bet (or raise)!"
Eric Huechteman I don't agree that it's not a 3bet hand
3betting the UTG raise from the button? Seems counter productive to me.
Eric Huechteman I would because I bluff later streets with position. Blocking AK AND AQ QQ AND KK
But raising narrows your range and makes it less likely you hit this board. Calling keeps your range wide and makes it more likely you hit it. For example, you are very unlikely to 3bet preflop with J9, but you would definitely call on the button. You have pretty much announced with your preflop 3bet here, "I don't have a straight on the turn!"
Shouldn't we be analysing our minimum defense frequency and reason that folding here with AQ is hugely exploitative because we already have tons of worst hands we are folding and it is just pure +EV to bluff us with any holding?
Hey James,
I am fairly new to playing live poker (played online, but never for real money) and now that I have a decent paying job I've played a couple times, most recently a couple days ago. I have a hand I want to run by you I played in 1/2 NL at my local casino just to make sure I played it correctly.
Should I shoot you an email, or should I just post it on here?
Thanks,
Zach
www.splitsuit.com/send ♥
I have 910 of clubs in early position and I 3bet one limper. The flop comes 24J with 2 spades and one club. The first guy to act shoves enough to cover me. Because I only have 3 to a straight and flush I fold. Is this the right play?
BluFF Thank you
No worrying about specific combos here, dont worry dont be scared.
Wait! So who won that hand ?
Playing 5/10, I''m SB with 2000 and the villain is button with 2000 also.
I have AKo
Preflop villain opens to 25 and I reraise to 70
Flop comes KcTd9d
I check, villain bets 150, I call, thinking I've got the best hand and the villain might bet another street.
Turn comes 7c
I check again, still pretty confident I'm ahead most of the time and villain shoves all in.
I'm not exactly sure what would make him shove 200BB deep. I don't think villain would play sets or two pair like this, misses out on too much value. I fold thinking while I can be ahead, I cannot make sense of this line of play, it's very possible he does have a monster hand and is trying to make me call with my strong hand.
The fold is fine in my opinion. Looks to me like something strong playing scared because of the very wet board. However your preflop 3-bet should be larger, something around 100 would be fine, especially when you are this deep. On the flop I am also not totally on board with checking. Its a very wet board, and I want to get value now from all his gutshots and whatever not, that might check back and take a free card.
Youre right, its another perspective I didn't take into account.
I'm fine with you folding on the turn in this situation because there were too many ways you can be beat. With your opponent on the button, he could easily have raised with QJ and have the nuts, or TT and have a set, among other combos. Your problem is that you reraised pre-flop and then checked/called the flop when you hit top pair top kicker. With flush and straight draws likely, you should never slow play your equity. Also by not betting out on the flop, your opponent's bet was fairly standard and didn't give you any real information on which to evaluate his hand. He could be strong, medium, or on a good draw. All you know at this point is that he liked his hand. By betting out instead, you would have forced him to react to you, and if he raised then you would know there may be trouble. If you choose to check here and he makes a fairly standard bet, you must check raise him to protect your equity and force him to react, again giving you the chance to get more information on how strong he really is. If he still pushes all-in afterward, then you can be pretty sure he isn't just bluffing overcards. On the other hand, your bet and/or raise may make him fold marginal hands or limit betting on a stronger one, saving you money in the long run. And let's face it. It sucks losing a good hand, but it really sucks losing a good hand while never even knowing for sure if you were actually beat!
Yeah sometimes I'm still a calling center
I ran into this almost exact same hand last night. Villain had KJ and completed his straight on the river with a 9. Happy fun time!
i don't think Pocket Jacks would want to go 3 streets of value in a multi way pot (3 bet pot)
Thanks SplitSuit ... Gold!
Thanks Mark!
I somehow reaaaally want to know what he had
I say don’t fold there if I call and hit top top. Ur committed
Yes quiz us
sorry but i have to comment that this hand went all wrong from the flop...Calling this bet on flop is a total mistake. Either you reraise his bet either you fold. After all he could be betting a fl.draw, or cbetting an AK. If he had an AK by calling the flop you simply make him think that you are after the flush or an open end str8 with KJ...He sees that turn didnt give something dangerous and fired a bigger one. With few words it is push or fold on the flop. Not on turn.
I would love to buy the book as a hardcover or pocket size. eBooks aren't for me
I totally understand. Yup, there is a paperback version available on Amazon: amzn.to/2M8n9Bn Enjoy!
James (SplitSuit) Thank you. I'll pick one up! Btw love your videos
Thanks DubZ! Enjoy it as you crack into it =)
Hero played it wrong and put himself in a difficult position.
Bankroll management is for bad runs and bad beats.
No amount of bankroll is going to weather the hero’s poker career...
Hero is a fish, who specialises in putting himself in a situation where he has to fold top pair top kicker out of position. Lol.
Happy grinding indeed.
Might he not 3-bet a suited ace and be on the club draw?
He certainly might
Gaston is Right
Top pair top kicker,never fold when oponnent have only 25% of pot
Lol that V has JJ with that line
Is there any merrit to 4 betting pre based on the following logic:
1) BB is almost always a fish and if he's bad enough to call a 3 bet, hes probably bad enough to call a 4 bet. I'd love to have him all to myself
2) If button is reg, my 4 bets screams strength. How happy is he right now if he doesnt have AA or KK? If he is p-fish im in trouble, but, if this is aggrotard this can be a great stack off.
3) I like 4 bet these types of hands once in a while. It makes life very difficult going forward for my opponent going forward when they have hands like 10-10 - QQ and AK vs my 4 bets. I can get more value on AA and KK
4) As long as they dont have AA, im not completely dead
If the first and/or second assumption is wrong, the 4bet can crumble quickly.
I'll admit id be more worried about the 2nd point. The only other thing I could imagine BB being, is a nit with 10-10-QQ or AK and he didnt want to 4 bet. Thats a very small hand range for him to get in this spot with, so I'm pretty sold on bb being fishy. My buffer for this blowing up in my face, is that its not my default play, just something I do once in a hwile, so my opponents cant put me squarely on KK+ when I 4 bet. Also, once the table has seen the 4 bet with AQ if it gets shown down, I'm planning on getting paid off the rest of the session.
Also, thank you very much for your vids. I regularly enjoy them and you've added some real value to my game
It could be a nit not wanting to 4-bet though. I had a very similar hand, when I played 2NL Zoom 6-max a few month ago as a sort of reintroduction to online poker.
A 25BB stack opened from UTG, I was BTN with AQ and 3-bet him to 12 BB hoping to isolate him and get it all in preflop against him. Now however the BB wanted to play as well, so he cold called my 12 BB, and UTG called as well putting half his stack in the middle.
Pretty awkward spot to say the least, but I got saved by the flop, which came Q, 9, 4. UTG now donked all in for his last 13 BB, and I decided to just call to induce BB to come along as well, and he made a pretty sizable raise.
I called, because he should not really have an overpair here, and he should not really flat with 44 or 99 with a short stack behind him, so what could he really have, that beat me? We got it all in on the turn, and BB turned over the one remaining combo of QQ.
This is of course just a massive cooler, but it goes to show, that there are some insanely nitty players at 2NL, who are not even comfortable 4-betting QQ against someone with a 25 BB stack and someone isolating that player from BTN.
scared nit is about the only other thing it could be besides a p fish. Good regs are 4 betting or folding. aggrotard probably 4 bet. I do think its much more likely to be fish though, bc the range a nit is flatting with is so small like 10-10-QQ and AK (sometimes)
Agree with that. Because the fish has a so much wider range, he will be in this situation a lot more often.
Just fold preflop, avoid tricky spots OOP, and crush this limit ✌🏻
A strategy that mainly focuses on avoiding tricky spots is not a long-term winning strategy =)
James (SplitSuit) You’re absolutely right for other stakes. But this is Zoom NL2. The game is completely different! I played millions of hands at this stake and can guarantee it’s by far the best strategy at this specific level/format.
instagram.com/p/Bl5uGL1FMBv/
Why are you playing millions of hands there instead of moving up?
James (SplitSuit) I wanted to reach a monthly 10bb/100 win rate before moving up. It just took me crazy long to finally achieve it 😅 The good news is that I became kind of a specialist of Zoom NL2 lol.
BluFF AQ is still a winning hand. In a tournament where the stacks are smaller it’s quite powerful. But at cash micro stakes 100bb deep and especially Zoom I find it particularly awful when you have to play it in a 3bet pot and out of position. That’s why I recommend folding it preflop against a 3bet OOP. Villains ranges are very strong in these spots. QQ+ AQ+ I guess. Therefore AQo is in a really bad shape against those hands.
How can you say that an opponent has aks of a specific suit within his range but not the other ak's as well. I think you were just showing a worst case scenario type of thing but in real time probly going to put all ak's in this guy's range unless you think he wouldn't take this line without the flush draw
All of that is correct =)
Sweet, I think you said something about purchasing flopzilla for 15 instead of 25 in the last video. I'd like to do that
Unfortunately that deal is no longer available. But I do have Flopzilla packaged with some of my workbooks and you'll see a savings there =)
basically folding here is -EV.. next
You cant use Flopzila on pokerstars,...
Ognjen Plamenac James always says to use tools off the table, you should be using these tools for study, for sure.
super vid! give us more :D
If you fold here why are you even playing the hand? Your range has QQ sometimes, 10s, 88 and then AQ. If you are always folding AQ here, you are folding way to much to these bets (like ridiculously too much). You would only ever be calling like 25-30% of your range, assuming your fold out pocket-pairs and no clubs AK on the flop. Would need the Ace of clubs to ever consider folding here.
This was a time when he should have shown what villain actually had
Hero wouldn't get that information after folding though =(
Kings plus
Well he didn’t have a full stack to start the hand. That screams fish. Gota shove. If you lose oh well I still think it’s still the right play.
He did. Its 2NL, and he started with more than 2$, which is the maximum buyin. He also bet 64% pot on flop and turn, which mean, he is using a bet slicer button and set it to that size himself, because its not a PokerStars standard size. Everything about his actions scream reg not fish.
fundiver198 ahh. Thanks for the assessment.
Pocket tens.
I actually like a fold here and I play the game for a living. Looks like KK.
Dont professionals think in terms of opponent range's rather than trying to narrow down a specific single hand?
@Allen Albright I agree although hard to fold AQ,I mean the guy reraises a utg open and then bets into 2 players(one being a 3bet cold caller in the blinds) on a board thats bad for a cbet bluff being so connected, then bets again on turn,I mean what bluffs are here really,is he doing this with any old Ako?
I see way more value combos here than bluffs.
Ive seen a lot of splitsuits videos and i get the feeling he plays way higher stakes online,because at low stakes or live you are not seeing the average guy do stuff like this,I mean GTO and theoretically correct poker is fine but in the real world people are way underbluffing.
Good stuff
Thanks Tony!
James (SplitSuit) could you email me the website information for the book you talked about. Thank you
I don't have your email address, but here is the link: www.splitsuit.com/6max-poker-workbook Enjoy!
All the people telling it was kings+ in the last video... It is a random at nl2 zoom!!
It could certainly be KK+, but I think margin of error favors giving action more than making ultra tight folds =)
Of course, but for them, the range was 100% KK/AA so it was an auto fold for them. I don't know how you can exclude (at least) AQs from the range of the player... You can look another comment above mine...
The real question from him is why didn’t he bet the turn himself.
Too much complicated analysis for theses limits where ppl do complete garbage and dont give a f about loosing 4 bucks
Am I the only person that would cbet the flop here?
Hero is not able to cbet here. Do you mean lead the flop?