All I can say is wow. How could anyone ever call that river with Q2. I am in agreement with the call on the river by the hero against 99% of opponents. A shove would only ever get value out of maybe this 1 player.
As said in the video, you might expect to see raises on previous streets if he had something like Jx. And if you have identified this guy as a calling station beforehand, then I say go for it. It is pretty hilarious that the guy could ever think he was good 3 way there with Q2 though!
1) I never even thought about a river shove and thought it seemed pointless at first, but after you laid out your reasoning I saw it made sense in this particular situation against this particular opponent. Nicely done. 2) You kept saying Qx for the station and I kept saying "He HAS to have AQ, what else could he have?" Wow... 3) Great job on this video, thank you for the excellent analysis.
I am not a native english speaker, and I didn't get what villain said when sitting: "color down his blacks in his pocket". Could someone explain me what that means?
Blacks is referring to the color of chips that were in his pocket and he was asking hero to exchange those larger black chips for smaller chip denominations since hero had a larger stack.
I think, Hero got a bit lucky here. If we just narrow their ranges to QX and JX, there are 3 unseen Q´s and 2 unseen J´s, so the probability V1 has a Q is 60%. That is all good and well, but now there are only 2 unseen Q´s, so the probability V2 has a Q, is now only 50%. Which mean the probability of BOTH of them having a Q is 0,6 x 0,5 = 0,3. Ok its 3-way action, so Hero only need around 30% equity, but he is not really making a profit here. And then we also have to question, if they really always take a Q this far? The calling station probably does, if we have seen him always call down with top pair. But the other guy was an unknown player, so I dont think, we could assume in advance, he was going to overplay his hand. I also dont think, we can remove JX or T9 from the calling stations range. Sure we have seen him raise strong hands two times, but that does not mean, he always does it. And in this particular spot, a raise was not really needed, since he had position, and the SPR was shallow enough to get all the money in with just 3 bets. Yeah ok then there is the chance, the donk is bluffing, but how often does he really run a triple barrel into two opponents with position on him? I think, this is a somewhat loosing call for Hero in the long run, so I would have folded to the river shove. And then tilted my balls off, when the two goofballs flipped over their hands ha ha.
I agree with you. My disagreement with the video is mainly 2 things: - we can't remove winning hands from CS's range - there is no way that a raise is the best play on the river. The only thing I would disagree with you is that CS's ranger could be considerably weaker. He could have easily been on a missed draw.
James stated in the video that you should know that you are going to showdown if you are gonna call this turn and the river is a brick, given the odds to call and that the villain was setting up for a shove already. Reevaluating at the river would cause too much folding on this type of situation.
I dont agree, that we should always call river, if we called turn. If I know, you are always calling the river with any bluff catcher, then I can just value bet all my strong hands, and never bluff you, and you will pay me off every single time. Therefore we need to call some hands AND fold some hands on every single street including the river. In my opinion its to nitty to fold KK on the turn especially to a less than ½ pot sized bet. This bet size look very much like a bluff or a Q losing the will to fight, and in that case the river should go check-check almost always. So when he jam, to me this mean something quite different from, when he just bet 50 into 125 on the turn. As for the calling station I am not that worried about him. I just dont think, we can eliminate strong hands from his range entirely. But even so I still agree with James, that IF we continue on the river, we should continue by jamming and not just calling. If we just call, then the calling station can jam, and then what? Are we making a womit fold getting more than 10:1? Or are we allowing him to save his last dollars, when he has a Q and still winning the max, when he have us beat? I dont like either of those options, so for me the river is shove or fold. But what I am really worried about is the guy, who has been betting on every single street postflop. This is his first hand on the table, so we have very little info about him. Sure straddling is not a sign of a great player and neither is donk betting on the flop. But even so, we dont know, what this guy is up to, so we should assign him some kind of reasonable range. And here is the thing. QX should not even bet the turn and much less the river, so we dont beat any value, and we lose to a ton of boats, straights and trips. And also, what is he bluffing with? The only missed draw is KT, which we block, so its only 8 combos, whereas it would be 16 combos, if we had a hand like AA or AQ. This makes KK a fairly bad hand to call with, unless we think, he is betting a Q, which he really should not be doing like ever. Him showing up with Q8 is quite funny, but he probably thought, the turn card helped him, and thats why he stacked it off. In that case Q8 might be the only Q, he is betting on the river, which is not enough to compensate for the ton of value hand, we lose to.
im back playing poker and thats the first channel i came in for. And i This its a shame that this channel is so small. I This thats one of the best free contents in cash on internet. Good job man.
I feel the villain was newer and after seeing the 8 on the board, just went for it not knowing that it didn't matter at all with the pair of JJ on the table.
Anyone arguing to fold river is folding too much. On River Hero’s range (hands he could still have) are AJo, AKo AKs, AQo, AQs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, KQo, KQs, KTs, JTs, J9s, T9s, QJs = 75 hands You must must must call at least half or your range when a brick comes else you’re folding too much verse two players. Clear Calls are: JJ, QQ, T9s, AJo, JTs, J9s, AA, KK makes 31 hands. Maybe call AQo too. KK is the bottom of your range, but... it’s a call.
AK is a fold on the flop. Its only a gutshot with overcards, that might not be good, and we have someone left to act behind us. AQ and KQ is a fold on the turn. They are in essense only second pair, and we have 3-way action.
orcyngiser AQ is actually quite different from KK here, because AQ block the opponents from having QX, so it has, what is called a bad removal effect. To make it simple we can say, they either have a Q or a J. If we hold KK, there is 30% chance, they both have a Q. This is already not great, but if we hold AQ, the number drop to 16,5% chance. Of course its not that simple, since they could also have draws, and UTG could be on a complete airball bluff. But still we kind of want them to have a Q, and therefore its pretty bad to block that exact card.
I am not sure I agree with you saying that he should shove river, I think even for a calling station it will be hard to call with a shove and re-shove in front of him but if he is calling with Q2 and a shove and a call in front of him then I guess he lives up to the title and would have a tough time folding for just 90 more and like you said gives him a chance to win a side pot some of the time. Just crazy to think how some players can't realize that they're simple never good here with a Q and no kicker but that's the beauty of the game I guess lol
I'd love to know the thought process of someone like the calling station here. I guess that they aren't thinking anything other than 'I've got top pair LOL'.
If you are a PRO Member on Red Chip Poker, there is a video (or 2?) from Doug Hull where he watches over the shoulder of a typical fun player and gets them to divulge what they are thinking. Very insightful video.
Yeah u would think even the biggest calling station in the world would realize he’s behind here, when hero overshoved I literally yelled NOOoOOO at my screen
I agree, theres something so much harder about calling a double shove, even if its practically no different I honestly think if I shove 40 BB or if I have a stack of 80 bb and raise 40 BB I will get called more the second time, we cant assume people will think perfectly logicaly and cool !
Wow Q2 calling pre is kinda amazing. I think we have 37% equity on the river against both players, in the worse scenario, so it's a call. I putted Q9+ in equilab (not Q2+) and no combos of K9, otherwise hero would have 66% equity...
Honestly split, I've seen a lot of your vids, and this breakdown, in my opinion of course, was well done. I've been skeptical of other breakdowns, but this one was spot on imo. Also the extensive info that hero gave was very welcome. Keep it up buddy, and happy grinding.
Just noting - hero is also a calling station during this orbit. Way too passive. Would of had better info and easier decisions with a 3x bet on any of the earlier streets. However having the calling station come along is always more profitable, so pick your poison, more info from making more aggressive decisions on earlier streets, or keeping the station in the pot for higher realized equity IF the vilian doesn't have a J.
Dave, they actually mix both passive and agressive actions with strong made hands and draws. By doing this, they make their strategy balanced and unexploitable. What often happens (and might be the reason why you perceive their play as you say) is that villain's range is weak and will not continue facing a raise, therefore it is better to play the strong hand passively and let the villain value bet himself. The same can be said with opponents that make the bets too small: you're often getting the right odds to call (not mentioning implied odds) and there is little to none reason to raise (I have to say that this kind of player is rarer than the aggrotards and fishes, though).
One point missed is that if we agree Calling Station probably has a Q, then there are only 2 queens available for Villain. Given that pretty much the only way to beat him is if he has a Q, then it becomes very likely that he doesn't have a Q, and so he will very likely crush you! I'm not convinced you are winning here 27% of the time. However, the likelihood of picking up a side pot does change that dynamic enough.
We have similar thoughts on HERO opening for $20 pre-flop. After the flop, it appears Villain is opening with a CBet and with H having KK's and only calling here, it give's us 'zero' information. RAISING here can give us MUCH and is why I would have raised V's bet to $60, instead. What do we THEN learn about CS and V? If HERO raises and: CS just calls.. we learn CS has Qx OR if CS raises, they have a J. Now we go to V. If CS 'calls' the raise, and V shoves.. V has a J. BUT, if CS 'calls' the raise and V also 'just calls'.. then V has Qx, 9-10, or a small pocket pair. If HERO 'raises', and CS 'raises', and V just 'calls'.. then V probably flopped a boat with QQ or QJ and I could lay it down. We can see, by raising on the flop, HERO would now have a ship-ton more information then by just 'calling'. By just calling, he has no more information going into the turn then he did at the flop.. and specifically no idea if V has 9-10. It isn't too much of a big deal with this hand, maybe..i mean he did win a nice pot, but I think HERO got lucky. -Just sayin...
88 is a fold on the flop, so it should not even get to the turn. But if it did, I see no reason to raise the baby boat. There is only one bet left, so all a turn jam does, is to make people fold hands, that are drawing dead or near dead against you. 88 could get counterfeited by a Q or J, but there are only 5 of those left, so it wont happen very often. And the situation is extremely easy to play, since you just find a bucket and womit-fold. Hands like AJ and KJ are more of a jam on the turn, because they dont want to see the board 4-straight on the river and be put in a really tough spot.
Hey splitsuit, nice video, as usual, what do you think about raising small on the turn in an attempt to win a free showdown if the villain would be deeper? I realized that most people tend to check the next street when the player that has position on them raises the previous street. I also think that considering the action and the board texture our hand is in sdv category.
If our hand is showdown value, which I agree with, then why should we raise? It reopen the betting and give him a chance to 3-bet shove. Also its not like, a river bet is coming 100% of the time. It is coming maybe 50% of the time, and there is no need to “protect” ourselfes from that situation by blocker raising the turn. If he bets again on the river, we just make another decision, simple as that.
Agreed, better to realize equity vs larger range of weaker hands as well as a few nutted, that Hero could boat up on river. Even more so, the polarized weaker ranges may bet/shove/call for max value-owning themselves on a brick, which happened.
if you jam the river to get the station's last 90 while beating Qx overvalued lead, then the station will call with the top of their range and (in my estimation} fold Qx more to the strong river raise, which is the hands I would want a bad call from like this run out. A raise there may actually blow the last of the meat off the bone.
In the end, I decided that I agreed with the call, at least partially because I would have played a queen exactly like the villain. But I have trouble seeing how the shove by hero was right. Calling with the queen deuce was sketchy on steroids. Calling with the queen deuce against a second shove? That seemed really unlikely. I don't remotely have the knowledge of the skill to disagree with splitsuit, but right now, I am going to disagree with split suit on that.
The decision is just based on the information given about the calling station. Apparently he never ever folds top pair so shoving in that case would be best.
True. KK is winning here because the villain is a maniac. Go in complete suicidal mode with a hand like Q8 just makes no sense. At any level most players would play it safe and hope getting to showdown. So yeah the river shove is just horrible. He probably did it for value but it worked more as a bluff.
DanielSong39 I think, its a call on the flop and turn but a fold on the river. On flop I would continue with QX or better but dump AK and all my underpairs to the board (22-TT). On the turn I would dump QX, and on the river I would dump overpairs. There is a huge difference between calling with KK and say JT, since these two goofballs can pretty much have any JX. So not only does a hand like JT block them from having strong hands, it also beat some of their value. KK unfortunatly dont block any value, and it even block the main busted KT draw, which is pretty bad.
Insane is pretty strong word, but often people tend to lose their mind on paired boards, because they think, their opponent missed. Which is often true on boards like 8, 2, 2 but not exactly on Q, J, J.
Calling station may not of called a reshuv his hand seems weaker with an over shuve on a paired coordinated board.. might of left that additional 159 in his stack.. I think a call is the best play in this situation
Hero was flying blind after Villain's post-Flop bet. If he would just 3-bet Villain's bet, then he gets the information he really needs. It probably knocks out Calling Station and polarizes Villain's range. By "flatting" you just make decisions harder down the line. Villain bets $25 into a $50 pot, post-Flop. That could be anything from a "blocker bet" to a "trap". You will only get clarity by RAISING. Still, if your intent was to be passive to induce reckless play from your opponents, then it's A-OK....just don't cry and wring your hands.
@@fundiver198 For precisely that reason. It polarizes their range. Basically look what Hero did: he called a $25 raise post-Flop, and called a $50 raise on the Turn. He was absolutely flying blind. If, however, he raised the $25 post-Flop bet by $50, Hero gets important information...EARLIER Yes, it turned out OK, but if Villain had been $100 deeper he would have totally bluffed Hero off that pot on a River-shove. Raises have two purposes. One is for profit, the other is for information.
Eric A Betting or raising in poker have two major and one minor purpose. The two major ones are folding out better hands (bluffing) and getting called by worse hands (value). The minor one is to fold out worse hands and deny their equity, if they have a substantial amount of it. In this case a turn raise would be approaching game theory disaster. No better hands fold, and not many worse hands give action either. We might get action from the KT draw, but unless the opponents are completely terrible, they are going to fold out their QX, and UTG will fold his nonsense bluffs, if he have any.
@@fundiver198 The hand "worked out" for Hero, but he/she seemed to be unhappy that they got put in a bad spot. What I'm saying is there were multiple paths where you'd have better intel on which to make your decisions. As played Hero got sucked into a Pot-committed situation. If those situations bother you, RAISE early...especially to what I'd call a weak post-Flop bet/call. I would, however probably "flat" a pot-sized bet post-Flop...BTW Remember, Hero committed the same $75 on Flop, Turn call-calls. IMO, re-raising $25 post-Flop bet by $50 gets you the intel and puts you in essentially the same spot, just earlier. Again, things worked out, but ask yourself comparatively what happens to your decision-making if A, 10 or 9 peel off on the River.
Eric A There is something really wrong with your approach to the game, if it bother you to face aggression from other players. This is part of the game and something, we need to learn to handle, if we want to become good winning players. And we dont handle it by starting to raise with the middle of our range. The starting point is to know your minimum defense frequency and stick to it, unless you have a good reason to take an exploitative line. Minimum defense frequency is the amount of the time, you must call to prevent Villain from making money by bluffing you with completely random hands. In this case, Villain bet half pot on the flop, so if he pick it up more than 33% of the time, he can bluff us to high heaven. So in a heads up pot we have to defend 67% of the time on the flop. However in a 3-way pot the other guy will also give action sometimes, and therefore we only need to defend 42% of the time. On the turn he bet 40% pot and with still 2 players to defend, our minimum defense frequency is 46%. On the river he bet a bit larger, so now its only 40%. If we add this up, we should arrive at showdown with only 7,7% of the hands, we saw the flop with. If we open all pocket pairs, AJ+, KJ+, JTs+, we saw the flop with 121 combos and therefore need to go to showdown with at least 9,3 combos. Our strongest hands are quads (1 combo), boats (3 combos) and then AJ (8 com-bos), so we should actually already toss a coin about, what to do with our AJ on the river. However this is also where, we should start to look at the situation and ask our-selfes, if we want to make an exploitative adjustment to the way, we think, these two guys play. And I think, the answer here is yes. So I am not folding any JX on the river to these two goofballs, which mean, I arrive at showdown with 4 combos of quads and boat, 8 AJ, 8 KJ and 2 JTs. Note that this is already 22 combos or more than twice as many, as game theory say, I should arrive with. KK however is a very clear fold on the river in my opinion. And if Villain then flip over Q8 or something else ridiculous, that is ok. We will get him some other time, when we have some of those 22 combos, which are much more reasonable to call him down with. Poker is a marathon not a sprint.
Horrible play by everyone involved. It is an easy board to get killed on. Pocket aces, queens, jacks(rare), 8’s, 3’s as well as QJ, J8, J3 and T9 dominate you. Against competent opponents this is a stack depleting situation
PECKATOP who hell has J3 here? You’re seeing monsters in the closet. AA, QQ, JJ (only hero can have, 10 combos) 88 (maybe a sticky player has this by the turn but discount it, only 3 combos ) 33 (no one has this by the river) QJ (possible for villains to have, only 6 combos) J8 (6 combos) J3 (no one has) T9 (might check call with the paired board so discount, 16 combos) = 25-31 hands Now: AQ 12 combos, KQ 6 combos, QT 12 combos, Q9 12 combos, TT and 99 (bluff hands, 12 combos), KT (possible bluff hand, 8 combos), K9 (possible but not great bluff hand, 8 combos) = 50-70 hands
noex100 UTG just sat down at the table. All, we know, is he straddled, then called our open raise, and then decided to lead on the flop into two other players. This does not tell us a whole lot about what kind of range, he might have. Now I am not saying, we should give him credit for always having a J and fold on the flop, but when he fire again on the turn AND the river, this does narrow his range, and it should narrow ours as well. If Hero had gotten shown J9 here, he would probably have felt like a bit of an idiot, and rigthfully so.
It's good to see hero win once in a while. Sometimes these videos can be kinda depressing
Hero gets to win every now and then too =)
Issue is most people only ask for advice when they lose
The most depressing is when they fold and you don't see the result... :)
It really is!
Haha - i bet you that villain didn't realise that his 8 was irrelevant.
I was kinda thinking the same thing
Me too. I made that mistake too often in the beginning.
Yeah the good old counterfeited 2 pair.
Was just gonna type the same thing. He probably thought he had a monster judging by how he played it after the turn.
Can you explain why the 8 didnt matter?
"I got, 3 pairs!"
All I can say is wow. How could anyone ever call that river with Q2. I am in agreement with the call on the river by the hero against 99% of opponents. A shove would only ever get value out of maybe this 1 player.
Yeah, it's not a shove against all players - not by any stretch =)
Maybe I'm just lucky, but at the casinos around here there are lots of 'this 1 player' at every table ;)
As said in the video, you might expect to see raises on previous streets if he had something like Jx. And if you have identified this guy as a calling station beforehand, then I say go for it.
It is pretty hilarious that the guy could ever think he was good 3 way there with Q2 though!
note to self ... don't discount the 3 pair hands :)
1) I never even thought about a river shove and thought it seemed pointless at first, but after you laid out your reasoning I saw it made sense in this particular situation against this particular opponent. Nicely done.
2) You kept saying Qx for the station and I kept saying "He HAS to have AQ, what else could he have?" Wow...
3) Great job on this video, thank you for the excellent analysis.
Where is this poker room!!?? 😱
.
I am not a native english speaker, and I didn't get what villain said when sitting: "color down his blacks in his pocket". Could someone explain me what that means?
Blacks is referring to the color of chips that were in his pocket and he was asking hero to exchange those larger black chips for smaller chip denominations since hero had a larger stack.
THANKS! THAT MULTIWAY STRATEGY TALK WAS RIDICULOUSLY GOOD. CRAZY HOW DEEP STACKS AFFECT THE DYNAMIC OF THE GAME.
i'm a towel
You're a towel
I think, Hero got a bit lucky here. If we just narrow their ranges to QX and JX, there are 3 unseen Q´s and 2 unseen J´s, so the probability V1 has a Q is 60%. That is all good and well, but now there are only 2 unseen Q´s, so the probability V2 has a Q, is now only 50%. Which mean the probability of BOTH of them having a Q is 0,6 x 0,5 = 0,3.
Ok its 3-way action, so Hero only need around 30% equity, but he is not really making a profit here. And then we also have to question, if they really always take a Q this far? The calling station probably does, if we have seen him always call down with top pair. But the other guy was an unknown player, so I dont think, we could assume in advance, he was going to overplay his hand.
I also dont think, we can remove JX or T9 from the calling stations range. Sure we have seen him raise strong hands two times, but that does not mean, he always does it. And in this particular spot, a raise was not really needed, since he had position, and the SPR was shallow enough to get all the money in with just 3 bets.
Yeah ok then there is the chance, the donk is bluffing, but how often does he really run a triple barrel into two opponents with position on him? I think, this is a somewhat loosing call for Hero in the long run, so I would have folded to the river shove. And then tilted my balls off, when the two goofballs flipped over their hands ha ha.
I agree with you. My disagreement with the video is mainly 2 things:
- we can't remove winning hands from CS's range
- there is no way that a raise is the best play on the river.
The only thing I would disagree with you is that CS's ranger could be considerably weaker. He could have easily been on a missed draw.
You should fold on the turn if you're going to fold a river shove. Playing with that re-evaluate on the river mindset is a losing play.
James stated in the video that you should know that you are going to showdown if you are gonna call this turn and the river is a brick, given the odds to call and that the villain was setting up for a shove already. Reevaluating at the river would cause too much folding on this type of situation.
I dont agree, that we should always call river, if we called turn. If I know, you are always calling the river with any bluff catcher, then I can just value bet all my strong hands, and never bluff you, and you will pay me off every single time. Therefore we need to call some hands AND fold some hands on every single street including the river.
In my opinion its to nitty to fold KK on the turn especially to a less than ½ pot sized bet. This bet size look very much like a bluff or a Q losing the will to fight, and in that case the river should go check-check almost always. So when he jam, to me this mean something quite different from, when he just bet 50 into 125 on the turn.
As for the calling station I am not that worried about him. I just dont think, we can eliminate strong hands from his range entirely. But even so I still agree with James, that IF we continue on the river, we should continue by jamming and not just calling.
If we just call, then the calling station can jam, and then what? Are we making a womit fold getting more than 10:1? Or are we allowing him to save his last dollars, when he has a Q and still winning the max, when he have us beat? I dont like either of those options, so for me the river is shove or fold.
But what I am really worried about is the guy, who has been betting on every single street postflop. This is his first hand on the table, so we have very little info about him. Sure straddling is not a sign of a great player and neither is donk betting on the flop. But even so, we dont know, what this guy is up to, so we should assign him some kind of reasonable range.
And here is the thing. QX should not even bet the turn and much less the river, so we dont beat any value, and we lose to a ton of boats, straights and trips. And also, what is he bluffing with? The only missed draw is KT, which we block, so its only 8 combos, whereas it would be 16 combos, if we had a hand like AA or AQ. This makes KK a fairly bad hand to call with, unless we think, he is betting a Q, which he really should not be doing like ever.
Him showing up with Q8 is quite funny, but he probably thought, the turn card helped him, and thats why he stacked it off. In that case Q8 might be the only Q, he is betting on the river, which is not enough to compensate for the ton of value hand, we lose to.
im back playing poker and thats the first channel i came in for. And i This its a shame that this channel is so small. I This thats one of the best free contents in cash on internet. Good job man.
Excellent vid. James at ~ 7:00 could be its own separate lesson video!! So many are results oriented with self-analysis/judgement!
I feel the villain was newer and after seeing the 8 on the board, just went for it not knowing that it didn't matter at all with the pair of JJ on the table.
Excellent analysis. The most important aspect is that OP has made precise observations on his/her opponents
fatkinglouie UTG just sat down. No poker reads.
Cheers!
Anyone arguing to fold river is folding too much.
On River Hero’s range (hands he could still have) are AJo, AKo AKs, AQo, AQs, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, KQo, KQs, KTs, JTs, J9s, T9s, QJs = 75 hands
You must must must call at least half or your range when a brick comes else you’re folding too much verse two players. Clear Calls are: JJ, QQ, T9s, AJo, JTs, J9s, AA, KK makes 31 hands. Maybe call AQo too.
KK is the bottom of your range, but... it’s a call.
AK is a fold on the flop. Its only a gutshot with overcards, that might not be good, and we have someone left to act behind us. AQ and KQ is a fold on the turn. They are in essense only second pair, and we have 3-way action.
AQ is not a turn fold, it is basically as strong as KK as we don't expect anyone to show up with KK
orcyngiser AQ is actually quite different from KK here, because AQ block the opponents from having QX, so it has, what is called a bad removal effect. To make it simple we can say, they either have a Q or a J. If we hold KK, there is 30% chance, they both have a Q. This is already not great, but if we hold AQ, the number drop to 16,5% chance. Of course its not that simple, since they could also have draws, and UTG could be on a complete airball bluff. But still we kind of want them to have a Q, and therefore its pretty bad to block that exact card.
@@fundiver198 lol i thi k you dont understand this game at all lol!! At least i had a good laugh!!
I am not sure I agree with you saying that he should shove river, I think even for a calling station it will be hard to call with a shove and re-shove in front of him but if he is calling with Q2 and a shove and a call in front of him then I guess he lives up to the title and would have a tough time folding for just 90 more and like you said gives him a chance to win a side pot some of the time. Just crazy to think how some players can't realize that they're simple never good here with a Q and no kicker but that's the beauty of the game I guess lol
I'd love to know the thought process of someone like the calling station here. I guess that they aren't thinking anything other than 'I've got top pair LOL'.
If you are a PRO Member on Red Chip Poker, there is a video (or 2?) from Doug Hull where he watches over the shoulder of a typical fun player and gets them to divulge what they are thinking. Very insightful video.
Yeah u would think even the biggest calling station in the world would realize he’s behind here, when hero overshoved I literally yelled NOOoOOO at my screen
I agree, theres something so much harder about calling a double shove, even if its practically no different I honestly think if I shove 40 BB or if I have a stack of 80 bb and raise 40 BB I will get called more the second time, we cant assume people will think perfectly logicaly and cool !
Wow Q2 calling pre is kinda amazing. I think we have 37% equity on the river against both players, in the worse scenario, so it's a call. I putted Q9+ in equilab (not Q2+) and no combos of K9, otherwise hero would have 66% equity...
This just makes me realize how much I need to learn still about poker
Calling station limps with Q2 😂
Honestly split, I've seen a lot of your vids, and this breakdown, in my opinion of course, was well done. I've been skeptical of other breakdowns, but this one was spot on imo. Also the extensive info that hero gave was very welcome. Keep it up buddy, and happy grinding.
Thanks Craig!
i just busted out of a WSOP circuit with KK on an A9AA6 board. idk if i could ever fold there. Could you?
Just noting - hero is also a calling station during this orbit. Way too passive. Would of had better info and easier decisions with a 3x bet on any of the earlier streets.
However having the calling station come along is always more profitable, so pick your poison, more info from making more aggressive decisions on earlier streets, or keeping the station in the pot for higher realized equity IF the vilian doesn't have a J.
At the point were the Villain shoved, do you think if the you shoved that calling station would have folded?
never
Sweeney. Why do pros play passive with strong holdings but aggressive with air or strong draws?
Dave, they actually mix both passive and agressive actions with strong made hands and draws. By doing this, they make their strategy balanced and unexploitable. What often happens (and might be the reason why you perceive their play as you say) is that villain's range is weak and will not continue facing a raise, therefore it is better to play the strong hand passively and let the villain value bet himself. The same can be said with opponents that make the bets too small: you're often getting the right odds to call (not mentioning implied odds) and there is little to none reason to raise (I have to say that this kind of player is rarer than the aggrotards and fishes, though).
What??? Good job balancing your video title I thought the end was gonna be 'disastrous'
One point missed is that if we agree Calling Station probably has a Q, then there are only 2 queens available for Villain. Given that pretty much the only way to beat him is if he has a Q, then it becomes very likely that he doesn't have a Q, and so he will very likely crush you! I'm not convinced you are winning here 27% of the time. However, the likelihood of picking up a side pot does change that dynamic enough.
He covered that when he said "Calling Station having the Q is bad". I wondered why, then he explained it blocks the Villian from a Q.
We have similar thoughts on HERO opening for $20 pre-flop. After the flop, it appears Villain is opening with a CBet and with H having KK's and only calling here, it give's us 'zero' information. RAISING here can give us MUCH and is why I would have raised V's bet to $60, instead. What do we THEN learn about CS and V? If HERO raises and: CS just calls.. we learn CS has Qx OR if CS raises, they have a J. Now we go to V. If CS 'calls' the raise, and V shoves.. V has a J. BUT, if CS 'calls' the raise and V also 'just calls'.. then V has Qx, 9-10, or a small pocket pair.
If HERO 'raises', and CS 'raises', and V just 'calls'.. then V probably flopped a boat with QQ or QJ and I could lay it down. We can see, by raising on the flop, HERO would now have a ship-ton more information then by just 'calling'. By just calling, he has no more information going into the turn then he did at the flop.. and specifically no idea if V has 9-10. It isn't too much of a big deal with this hand, maybe..i mean he did win a nice pot, but I think HERO got lucky. -Just sayin...
Why wpuld I ever raise pockets 8 on the turn?
88 is a fold on the flop, so it should not even get to the turn. But if it did, I see no reason to raise the baby boat. There is only one bet left, so all a turn jam does, is to make people fold hands, that are drawing dead or near dead against you. 88 could get counterfeited by a Q or J, but there are only 5 of those left, so it wont happen very often. And the situation is extremely easy to play, since you just find a bucket and womit-fold. Hands like AJ and KJ are more of a jam on the turn, because they dont want to see the board 4-straight on the river and be put in a really tough spot.
What software did you use to present poker hand, please?
PT4 with a custom replayer skin.
Actually V had 2 pair, Qs and Js, where our hero won with 2 pair, Ks and Js....
Hey splitsuit, nice video, as usual, what do you think about raising small on the turn in an attempt to win a free showdown if the villain would be deeper? I realized that most people tend to check the next street when the player that has position on them raises the previous street. I also think that considering the action and the board texture our hand is in sdv category.
If our hand is showdown value, which I agree with, then why should we raise? It reopen the betting and give him a chance to 3-bet shove. Also its not like, a river bet is coming 100% of the time. It is coming maybe 50% of the time, and there is no need to “protect” ourselfes from that situation by blocker raising the turn. If he bets again on the river, we just make another decision, simple as that.
Agreed, better to realize equity vs larger range of weaker hands as well as a few nutted, that Hero could boat up on river. Even more so, the polarized weaker ranges may bet/shove/call for max value-owning themselves on a brick, which happened.
if you jam the river to get the station's last 90 while beating Qx overvalued lead, then the station will call with the top of their range and (in my estimation} fold Qx more to the strong river raise, which is the hands I would want a bad call from like this run out. A raise there may actually blow the last of the meat off the bone.
In the end, I decided that I agreed with the call, at least partially because I would have played a queen exactly like the villain. But I have trouble seeing how the shove by hero was right. Calling with the queen deuce was sketchy on steroids. Calling with the queen deuce against a second shove? That seemed really unlikely. I don't remotely have the knowledge of the skill to disagree with splitsuit, but right now, I am going to disagree with split suit on that.
The decision is just based on the information given about the calling station. Apparently he never ever folds top pair so shoving in that case would be best.
This might work in Zynga poker but in real life the calling station folds and you get shown JX+ from the villain 8 or 9 times out of 10.
Yeah I have tougher opponents in NL5 lol
True. KK is winning here because the villain is a maniac. Go in complete suicidal mode with a hand like Q8 just makes no sense. At any level most players would play it safe and hope getting to showdown.
So yeah the river shove is just horrible. He probably did it for value but it worked more as a bluff.
Hey James, what app do you use to share these hands?
It's PT4 with a custom replayer skin
Thanks.
Snap shoving verbally but putting in only one $5 chip may be a weakness tell. Appears as if he simply didn't want to put his stack in the pot.
Need to know the villain's face when dealer push all the chips to hero side.
Villain wondering : Hallo???!!!!
Ha ha yeah. "But dealer I had 3 pair???" LOL.
I think hero played this perfectly.
I would've played it the same. But thinking about it, river shoving would've been a lot better.
This happened to me last week. Except person flopped a boat.
You'll see more boats than QX making that play and mostly JX.
@@DanielSong39 I know, so why is everyone saying this is a call on turn and river
I'm sure Bart Hanson (Crushlivepoker) would have a different answer.
DanielSong39 I think, its a call on the flop and turn but a fold on the river. On flop I would continue with QX or better but dump AK and all my underpairs to the board (22-TT). On the turn I would dump QX, and on the river I would dump overpairs.
There is a huge difference between calling with KK and say JT, since these two goofballs can pretty much have any JX. So not only does a hand like JT block them from having strong hands, it also beat some of their value. KK unfortunatly dont block any value, and it even block the main busted KT draw, which is pretty bad.
Sorry, I'm not a native English speaker, could anyone tell me what " "color down his blacks that he had in his pocket" mean? Thank you.
A black chip is worth $100.
To 'color down' would mean to turn it into smaller denomination chips (so 20 $5 chips, or 4 $25 chips)
Oh, I totally get it now, thanks a lot man!
JulioADH cheers!
If you called on the turn, you're not folding to that blank. It's that simple.
they have indeed funky stuff 😂
Dude called a raise to $16 with queen deuce, wow.
Robert Gardner Israeli Ron?
Dude called 159$ with queen deuce after an all in and a call in a paired board, strighty board.
This has to be the luckiest hero ever.
Nice
To me committing majority of your stack on a hand that is not even sixth best hand given the board texture is insane
Insane is pretty strong word, but often people tend to lose their mind on paired boards, because they think, their opponent missed. Which is often true on boards like 8, 2, 2 but not exactly on Q, J, J.
Q2o wow...
Calling station may not of called a reshuv his hand seems weaker with an over shuve on a paired coordinated board.. might of left that additional 159 in his stack.. I think a call is the best play in this situation
OMG 😮 can’t understand why these terrible players go especially to the casino for playing Q8o and Q2o. Burning money maybe?
Some people just wanna have fun or legit don't know the game.
ahellmann Thanks you’re probably right man
Hero was flying blind after Villain's post-Flop bet. If he would just 3-bet Villain's bet, then he gets the information he really needs. It probably knocks out Calling Station and polarizes Villain's range. By "flatting" you just make decisions harder down the line.
Villain bets $25 into a $50 pot, post-Flop. That could be anything from a "blocker bet" to a "trap". You will only get clarity by RAISING.
Still, if your intent was to be passive to induce reckless play from your opponents, then it's A-OK....just don't cry and wring your hands.
Why would you want to raise, if both opponents then mainly continue with hands, that beat you?
@@fundiver198 For precisely that reason. It polarizes their range. Basically look what Hero did: he called a $25 raise post-Flop, and called a $50 raise on the Turn. He was absolutely flying blind.
If, however, he raised the $25 post-Flop bet by $50, Hero gets important information...EARLIER
Yes, it turned out OK, but if Villain had been $100 deeper he would have totally bluffed Hero off that pot on a River-shove.
Raises have two purposes. One is for profit, the other is for information.
Eric A Betting or raising in poker have two major and one minor purpose. The two major ones are folding out better hands (bluffing) and getting called by worse hands (value). The minor one is to fold out worse hands and deny their equity, if they have a substantial amount of it.
In this case a turn raise would be approaching game theory disaster. No better hands fold, and not many worse hands give action either. We might get action from the KT draw, but unless the opponents are completely terrible, they are going to fold out their QX, and UTG will fold his nonsense bluffs, if he have any.
@@fundiver198 The hand "worked out" for Hero, but he/she seemed to be unhappy that they got put in a bad spot. What I'm saying is there were multiple paths where you'd have better intel on which to make your decisions.
As played Hero got sucked into a Pot-committed situation. If those situations bother you, RAISE early...especially to what I'd call a weak post-Flop bet/call. I would, however probably "flat" a pot-sized bet post-Flop...BTW
Remember, Hero committed the same $75 on Flop, Turn call-calls. IMO, re-raising $25 post-Flop bet by $50 gets you the intel and puts you in essentially the same spot, just earlier.
Again, things worked out, but ask yourself comparatively what happens to your decision-making if A, 10 or 9 peel off on the River.
Eric A There is something really wrong with your approach to the game, if it bother you to face aggression from other players. This is part of the game and something, we need to learn to handle, if we want to become good winning players. And we dont handle it by starting to raise with the middle of our range.
The starting point is to know your minimum defense frequency and stick to it, unless you have a good reason to take an exploitative line. Minimum defense frequency is the amount of the time, you must call to prevent Villain from making money by bluffing you with completely random hands.
In this case, Villain bet half pot on the flop, so if he pick it up more than 33% of the time, he can bluff us to high heaven. So in a heads up pot we have to defend 67% of the time on the flop.
However in a 3-way pot the other guy will also give action sometimes, and therefore we only need to defend 42% of the time. On the turn he bet 40% pot and with still 2 players to defend, our minimum defense frequency is 46%. On the river he bet a bit larger, so now its only 40%.
If we add this up, we should arrive at showdown with only 7,7% of the hands, we saw the flop with. If we open all pocket pairs, AJ+, KJ+, JTs+, we saw the flop with 121 combos and therefore need to go to showdown with at least 9,3 combos.
Our strongest hands are quads (1 combo), boats (3 combos) and then AJ (8 com-bos), so we should actually already toss a coin about, what to do with our AJ on the river. However this is also where, we should start to look at the situation and ask our-selfes, if we want to make an exploitative adjustment to the way, we think, these two guys play.
And I think, the answer here is yes. So I am not folding any JX on the river to these two goofballs, which mean, I arrive at showdown with 4 combos of quads and boat, 8 AJ, 8 KJ and 2 JTs. Note that this is already 22 combos or more than twice as many, as game theory say, I should arrive with.
KK however is a very clear fold on the river in my opinion. And if Villain then flip over Q8 or something else ridiculous, that is ok. We will get him some other time, when we have some of those 22 combos, which are much more reasonable to call him down with. Poker is a marathon not a sprint.
Horrible play by everyone involved. It is an easy board to get killed on. Pocket aces, queens, jacks(rare), 8’s, 3’s as well as QJ, J8, J3 and T9 dominate you. Against competent opponents this is a stack depleting situation
PECKATOP who hell has J3 here? You’re seeing monsters in the closet.
AA, QQ, JJ (only hero can have, 10 combos)
88 (maybe a sticky player has this by the turn but discount it, only 3 combos )
33 (no one has this by the river)
QJ (possible for villains to have, only 6 combos)
J8 (6 combos)
J3 (no one has)
T9 (might check call with the paired board so discount, 16 combos) = 25-31 hands
Now:
AQ 12 combos, KQ 6 combos, QT 12 combos, Q9 12 combos, TT and 99 (bluff hands, 12 combos), KT (possible bluff hand, 8 combos), K9 (possible but not great bluff hand, 8 combos) = 50-70 hands
competent opponents don't call 8xBB open raise with J3.
Nor with Q2 or Q8, so yeah, weird hand.
Hero already knows that neither opponent is likely to be competent, so a lot of that analysis goes out the window.
noex100 UTG just sat down at the table. All, we know, is he straddled, then called our open raise, and then decided to lead on the flop into two other players. This does not tell us a whole lot about what kind of range, he might have.
Now I am not saying, we should give him credit for always having a J and fold on the flop, but when he fire again on the turn AND the river, this does narrow his range, and it should narrow ours as well. If Hero had gotten shown J9 here, he would probably have felt like a bit of an idiot, and rigthfully so.
Poker is dead in 2018 confirmed.