I don't think that the fold is terrible, but I think that calling is slightly higher EV, since we're getting decent implied odds to try to boat up, given we have about a 20% chance of boating up (although there are some reverse implied odds when we run into a higher boat, but that shouldn't sting us too much).
hilarious how so many in the comments defend the fold. because QT and couple funky combos that dont really make sense get there you'd fold. like he said. you have implied odds and there is even some stuff in his value range left that you beat. he can also get funky with JT as he picked up an open ender. I dont want to give crap to the guy posting the hand. you can always make a bad play. but please acknowledge splits analysis on spot on here.
I dont hate the check-raise size on the flop, which is around half pot. In my experience flop check-raises generate a lot of folds in modern online games at least at the lowest stakes. Now against this Villain, there was obviously no worry, since he called down with AA all the way to the end. But it would be killer to have him make a nitty fold already on the flop, because we go for a bigger size. Its all about average player tendencies, and if people tend to call more in live games, which James play, then obviously a larger size is better in those games. Agree with the turn analysis. I am not loving my hand, when the SB donk turn, after the most obvious draw completed, and I am not raising him, but I am not folding either. I would fold a blank river though, because at that point I think, its super unlikely, we have the best hand, especially when the bad reg called the turn. Sure we mainly lose to QT, but there is 16 combos of it, and its a completely reasonable hand for both of them to have.
Ive always wondered at what point does a hand "not" become at the "top of our range"? Is it the fourth, fifth or sixth best hand in our range where one can safely fold? So in this situation lets say pocket nines is the top of our range since JJ would 3bet. 99,66, J9s..so can and should we fold AJ since its not at the top of our range? tks.
Don't think you would have AJ, as played. Are you check raising AJ, multiway, on this board? I don't think I am. I guess you could and some strategies would advocate playing raise or fold from the BB in this spot. I just don't think people would typically be raising it in a multiway pot. If you did, I believe you could fold it. I think something like 87s would be bottomish of range. I could see XR 87s with BDFD. It is an OESD on flop and hit pair now. It is a pair plus OESD, but T is dominated straight, so a lot of your outs are pretty bad. I think BB can have QT here as well. Certainly a reasonable candidate to bluff raise flop with. I could also see BB overcall pre with T7s and 75s. Not sure we would XR those on flop, but I think we could some of the time and they are both straights now on turn. So 99 is not really top of our range. I think I agree that folding 66 here to a 1/2 pot bet is a bit too nitty, even though it was correct. I think calling and then folding river might be reasonable. A hand becomes not at that top of our range when it isn't. You have to look at the entire group of hands that you would get into a certain spot with and evaluate where each hand is in your range. On dynamic boards, this can change from street to street. Dynamic boards have the potential to change the relative strength of your hand with every new card that comes out. On a static board this is less likely so hand strengths tend to stay where they are at. So in this spot lay out all the hands that you would call with preflop, in the BB. I think it is fair to say BB would now check 100% of the time on the flop. Now when facing a bet, take that group of hands that you had that called preflop and figure out all the hands you would now raise with and the ones you would just call with. Now you are on the turn with a group of hands facing a 1/2 pot donk bet. What hands are at top and what are at bottom?
I think hero does have both QT and T7 in his preflop calling and (at least partially) in his flop check-raise range, so that's the new "top of our range". It depends on how many hands you are check-raising the flop total to say if 66 is still at the top of our value range (if we do raise the flop very wide) or if it's now just the strongest part of our defend/bluff-catching range (if we raise very tight).
it's based on pot odds. you approximate based on a formula called mdf, or minimum defense frequency. It means that you must always have some hands to continue with based on the odds you are getting in order to neutralize EV villain gains when bluffing.
I agree with this Analysis. I think the only way you fold in that spot is if you have a live read. Even if he has the straight you still have like 13 outs. The only set you lose to is 9s. I don’t this 8s make it past a check raise. Qs and Js 3 bet pre.
Yes it is 10. 3-9s, 3-Js, 3-8s, 1-6. So we are not getting direct odds to call flop, but as James said there are implied odds of V1 calling behind, which he did, as well as money going in on further streets. There is however the issue that V1, some small percentage of the time, can have all sets, as he was the opener, as well as having 16 full combos of QT himself, as well as some combos of T7s and 75s. Not sure if this sways things enough. I still think a call is reasonable and decide on river and as played just fold river
Jon Sweet he’s not going call 10-7 in the Small Blind. You miss too often and it’s a bad hand to play out of position even if they’re suited. I would have called turn and when 4 to a straight came on the river, would fold. Seeing as even the bottom of V2s range would be 10s in my opinion makes the straight.
And what if we don't have pot odds or implied odds to call there? What if they need to have some things in their range that we're ahead of for us to justify calling? Can we call with our bottom set? I think that's an interesting question worth exploring.
Would folding the river once the queen comes be a smart move? With 4 to a straight out there, and potentially lots of 10s in villians range, seems like a muck at that point
I think if you're going to give certain advice (like betting bigger for value), you should go over the full implications of how that affects your overall strategy. I.E. How often you think you'll have to incorporate smaller bet sizes in a spot like this, or at least a general idea. That might also help clear up some of these debates in the comments. Just some constructive criticism, keep up the good work, longtime fan :)
I just started playing and your videos have been super helpful. I think a big problem I have is folding too much (frequencies?), as well as everything else obviously, but one thing at a time
what do you think about hero calculating his pot odds by including an additional $33 from the bad reg on the button who probably will call the turn bet - especially if hero flats? that would make hero's pot odds percentage 20.5% hero's equity going into the river is 20% ... While that is slightly less than +EV, there is a good likelihood that both the unknown player and the bad reg will call hero's river shove of $51.50 if he makes a full house.
Today I placed 5c 10c and flopped bottom set. The guy first to act bet 2/3 he got a call and I decided to re-raise. Under the gun re raises me so I go all in. He hits quads on the river. Either way I’m gonna bust :p
two thoughts. 1. Even if he's overvaluates two pair we can safely assume he's gonna ship it on the river. There are a lot of bad river cards for us like broadways, anything in that draw related neighborhood and basically Anything that isn't one of those little cards is a really bad card for us. Based on stack sizes if you're calling you're basically comitting half your stack to the pot and the turn is where you decide wheather you're willing to trust he doesn't have a straight. Odds say one of those not so great cards is going to come so if you're not going to call an all-in on the river with trips, because bottom set rightfully can't quite take the hit, why call now? If you call turn you're going to put yourself in a tough spot on the river. You might have the best hand, true, but aren't there better spots to pick investing so much of your stack? Maybe even same situation but heads up? 2. Just like your correct advice as of wanting to build a pot with the bottom set, that's what most people do when having a good hand, good or bad players. Facing two opponents, even most bad players normally wouldn't bet so big on a pair into two opponents so I don't think that's ever in his range here. I like your advice not to assume how others play, but that's such a universal thought process, you have to assume that he has two pair or better here. Like assuming 90% of players wouldn't completely bluff-bet the flop in a 6 handed multiway pot, cause that would be just idiotic.
Nice analysis, so I know what to do on the turn now. Assuming the river is a blank (eg: 2s), the villain will still shove. What do I do there? (I'd call because pot odds + top of my range)
Also, assuming we're calling all blank rivers, why not just shove turn to get all semi bluff hands eg:T8s, 78s, or weaker made hands eg:J9s to get it in bad?
chyauFUN you're making the assumption that someone in SB was plays a check, call, call check raise flop line into a donk vs pfr and flop check raiser with these hands, which honestly even with j9 is optimistic. 99 shouldn't be in there since it would likely check raise itself, and sure those other hands are present but do they donk out on the turn with a rainbow board? Jamming turn hoping that these hands both play this way and call I think is wrong. Jamming has the added downside of likely making v1 play perfectly. It might be better if there was a flush draw on the flop, or maybe even a turned one, but even then you're risking alot with alot of assumptions. If you plan to always call or bet on a blank river you might as well call to protect your range, keep in bluffs, and keep in overpairs with little equity (v1).
V1 plays aces terribly. With just the blinds left, that raise is too low considering the discount they get. I agree hero's raise is too small Folding that set on the turn is bad. Absolute worse case scenario, you only have 1 out going into the river. There's lots of pair + draws/2 pairs/over pairs/naked straight draws we're outright ahead of If the straight got there on the turn, we still have about a 4:1 shot to improve with more than enough implied odds going to the river Calling 33 is the right move. Weather v1 calls along or raises. We only have 50ish behind. It seems like a no brainer
Without specific reads, or knowing how a particular player plays. I would not be folding here. Also, you have more than enough equity to stack your opponent should the board pair.
I replied to this Q in a different comment, so I'll just copy/paste it here: In short, pretend that you just called the bet....then add everything together...and your final size should be the summation + the call. So rounding the pot to $8 and the bet/call to $6, a pot-sized raise would be 6+(8+6+6+6)=32
Why the Villain 2 would lead turn with bluffs in a multiway pot? I think the fold was great, i can't see any other hand that is losing to this bottom set
A set has 10 outs against a straight on the turn. So if you are folding a set for a ½ pot sized turn bet, you are also folding OESDs and flushdraws, since they only have 8 and 9 outs respectively. I think, that is just way to nitty, especially because we also cant rule out, that me might donk with other hands like J8s or 98s, which we are way ahead off. Sure he could also have us crushed with a higher set, but that is very unlikely, as the hand played out. So I would not play bottom set any different from top set in a spot like this.
Even if you know he has a straight here, odds dictate a call. Getting 3-1 direct odds so we need 25% equity and we have 20% to pair the board on river. Since we can be fairly certain the bad reg will also call, our implied odds more than make up the 5%.
i don't get it. 7.50 + 5.60 + 5.60 is 18.10. how is $30 as a check raise a pot sized bet? it seems to me the sizing was perfectly cut as a pot sized check raise.
Than screw the right play and have the safe play. Beginners like us arnt planning on winning or participating in major tournaments. Just a couple hundreds are enough for me so in this situation I would say GOOD FOLD
But Why fold when you still have outs? I had the same situation one time when I had KK, flop was K 10 J. I was face with a bet and a 3 bet, I jam and both called me, turn with Q and river J, and I got the main pot. Sometimes you gotta risk it for the biscuit :).
I actually really like the fold. I really can’t see any other hand apart from queen ten the villain can have that check calls 5.60 then 18 dollars. I don’t think you do quite have the equity to call the 33 dollars.
James (SplitSuit) him calling behind or even jamming in this spot bad reg or not would have me even more concerned that we are behind to at least one. If we go three ways to the river we don’t actually anything other than a 6 is going to give us the best hand. That leaves us with one clean out. I think it’s a poor strategy to think as the player behind calls and I boat up I can call a) he may not call, he can easily shove or fold, which then changes your implied odds and b) if you are getting a call there and you do boat up your still not guaranteed to have the best hand which is I think it’s a really good fold
If you fold here with your set then v2 can overbluf you and make a lot of money while doing that. You don't fold the top of your range in this situation because that will make it so easy to exploit you.
Kasper Wolsink if it’s just you and one villain yes that’s definitely fair but I can’t see any bluff that calls 18 dollars on the flop then leads out 33 on the turn against two opponents. I actually think the guy who sent this hand in made a really reasonable fold and there is actually a lot of things the guy doing this vid is not right about. I really don’t like how he breaks this hand down or is reasonings to make certain decisions
I'm not disagreeing with the analysis, but I've never understood this common definition of a 'pot-sized bet.' You state that a pot-sized check raise would be around $30 rather than $18 but there is $18 (actually $18.70) in the pot, not $30. This definition seems to assume that 'pot-sized' means the actual size of the pot ($18) plus a min-raise ($5.60 x 2, or $11.20). I don't understand the nomenclature.
In short, pretend that you just called the bet....then add everything together...and your final size should be the summation + the call. So rounding the pot to $8 and the bet/call to $6, a pot-sized raise would be 6+(8+6+6+6)=32
I always get lost in your pot count. I would calculate it 7.50 + 5.60 + 5.60 = 18.70 In what world this is ~30? It must be something i don't understand. What is it? And it's not fist video when it's like this. (you even have pot calculator in there in top middle)
You take the money previously in the pot before the bet and add three times the villain's bet to it. A pot sized bet means a bet which gives opponent 1:1 odds
Man, I might be full of myself, but I disagree with both James and Hero here: Disagreement with James: Hero's check-raise size is perfect. It's not a super wet board, we want either villain to continue with all overpairs, all Jx as well as most TT and 9x. If he does, (assuming V2 folds) we'll have 49$ in the pot with 84.5$ behind. Comfortable 28$ (57%) turn bet, comfortable 56.5$ (54%) river shove. Easy. Disagreement with Hero: This is a horrendous fold. 1) we need 26% immediate eq, we'd have almost than even if he showed QT or T7. 2) we're almost certain to win another 51$ if the board pairs on the river. 3) he can be blocker betting worse hands such as JT, T9 or value betting 98, which we all crush. 4) V1 can still call with overpairs or strong Jx, improving out odds even further. Just raise the 18$ you raised on the flop, but call the turn bet, planning on calling (or value betting) most rivers.
Are either of these players likely to fold draws, Jx, QQ+ if we go $30 vs $18? If yes, we have a conversation. If no, then what does $18 do that $30 does not?
1) I very much doubt a 100nl player (even a bad reg) is so bad that he wouldn't change his c-range depending on the sizing of the opponent. 2) It does something else that's very positive: It forces V2 to call as well with a very wide/weak range. 3) And even if V1's c-range would be similar on the flop, you'd have a very awkward stack size on the turn. You would either have to over/potbet-shove the turn, folding a lot of hands you'd like him to call with. Or you'd need to bet very small on turn and river, making it a 3-street affair anyway.
Why would you ever make such a weak check-raise with such a nutted hand? $18 is a terrible sizing and gives crazy-good odds to any draw or any top-pair/overpair hand that doesn't want to give up so easily. Hero should be raising to around $25 and commit from there.
Like I said, what do you gain? You still need all 3 streets to get the opponent in anyway, unless you overshove the turn, which folds out a ton of hands you don't want to fold.
Seems like a normal situation in online poker. You flop a set and there is a clear str. Another one is when you finally flop a set and there is 2 into the flush and 2 into the str. Just typical online poker
SplitSuit - Surely the problem with check-raising by a larger amount is that we make it too expensive to bluff in other hands? Isn't that the problem with a lot of your argument about bet sizing? If we open AA at 6X then we also have to open J10o on the button at 6X. You're just making it too expensive to play a balanced game.
Are my opponent's balanced? Do they know what balace is? If they do know what balance is, do they know how to exploit me when I am unbalanced? Answer those questions first and see where the exploration takes you =)
I massively disagree with that. Most players are horrific hand readers and have zero idea how to adjust properly to different sizes (in both global and singular situations)
James (SplitSuit) what ?? You think that players playing over a 100 dollars buy in don’t have the capability to see a 6x raise compared to a 3x raise ??? I’d like to know when the last time you sat down on a 0.50 1 dollar table online because you certainly do not give the players enough credit if you don’t think that they are aware of such glaring plays. I would pick that up straight away.
Awful turn advice. Hero was absolutely correct to fold. It's fine to acknowledge different play styles & even that some opponents will be idiots. In fact; villain does play terribly here! He was foolish to lead. The flop action makes it a virtual certainty the turn is not checking through. His stupid lead should have ended the hand, but luckily there was a fish who thinks AA is never a fold.
I can't really agree with you here James. Yes you're getting 3 to 1 on a call, but if you're putting V2 on exactly a straight, you don't have the equity to draw for a full house here. So the only question is : does V2 ever have a bluff here. If you think he's a skilled opponent the answser will be yes, but against most fishy players the answer will be never. And seeing how V1 calls the river when he's clearly behind here with just an overpair, it seems pretty clear to me that you are facing very basic players, who can be exploited by making this kind of nitty fold.
But the only question is NOT does V2 ever bluff here. Yes, that is one of the questions...but so too are "if I call does V1 call too?" and "if V2 does only have straights, do I get paid if the board pairs on the river?"
I think on turn you are too often behind to call this, there are already complete draws while you have the bottom set, thus even if you improve you still might lose the hand.
Leading out after the flop would have been the best action. You have to play it as if you have the best had, but by check-raising it was basically a donation as you're giving an unknown player control as you're out of position. With a strong lead out, V2 probably dumps the draw and the hand plays out and the Hero takes the pot.
He didn't fold to a normal size bet. V1 bet normal and V2 called and we raised. Even if we lead out pot, V1 will call and now V2 for sure will call as he is getting better odds now that V1 has called. Has an open ender to the nuts. XR actually gives us control of the hand. We now have initiative, but V2 didn't give a rip about that and donked turn, but that is pretty atypical. I think XR is best, but agree it needs to be bigger.
Let’s be honest unless he is a complete novice which if you don’t know you can’t presume all the hands that he is saying he maybe value betting just are not there. Jack 8 at a push, jack 9 would be check raising flop, 6-8 no chance that calls 18 dollars on the flop, 9-10 nope, 98 again nope
![Commit Or Quit With ACE QUEEN? [Poker Quiz]](/img/n.gif)
I don't think that the fold is terrible, but I think that calling is slightly higher EV, since we're getting decent implied odds to try to boat up, given we have about a 20% chance of boating up (although there are some reverse implied odds when we run into a higher boat, but that shouldn't sting us too much).
I would go broke on that turn😂
Me too, I would just jam on the turn after the bet. But my turn bet would be larger as well ($25) as well, so I have no choice because if the low SPR.
hilarious how so many in the comments defend the fold. because QT and couple funky combos that dont really make sense get there you'd fold. like he said. you have implied odds and there is even some stuff in his value range left that you beat. he can also get funky with JT as he picked up an open ender.
I dont want to give crap to the guy posting the hand. you can always make a bad play. but please acknowledge splits analysis on spot on here.
I dont hate the check-raise size on the flop, which is around half pot. In my experience flop check-raises generate a lot of folds in modern online games at least at the lowest stakes. Now against this Villain, there was obviously no worry, since he called down with AA all the way to the end. But it would be killer to have him make a nitty fold already on the flop, because we go for a bigger size.
Its all about average player tendencies, and if people tend to call more in live games, which James play, then obviously a larger size is better in those games. Agree with the turn analysis. I am not loving my hand, when the SB donk turn, after the most obvious draw completed, and I am not raising him, but I am not folding either.
I would fold a blank river though, because at that point I think, its super unlikely, we have the best hand, especially when the bad reg called the turn. Sure we mainly lose to QT, but there is 16 combos of it, and its a completely reasonable hand for both of them to have.
I love your stuff man -more so than the big name poker UA-camrs. Thanks you and please keep it up!
Thanks Trent!
Ive always wondered at what point does a hand "not" become at the "top of our range"? Is it the fourth, fifth or sixth best hand in our range where one can safely fold? So in this situation lets say pocket nines is the top of our range since JJ would 3bet. 99,66, J9s..so can and should we fold AJ since its not at the top of our range? tks.
interesting thoughts, can anyone clear up?
Don't think you would have AJ, as played. Are you check raising AJ, multiway, on this board? I don't think I am. I guess you could and some strategies would advocate playing raise or fold from the BB in this spot. I just don't think people would typically be raising it in a multiway pot. If you did, I believe you could fold it. I think something like 87s would be bottomish of range. I could see XR 87s with BDFD. It is an OESD on flop and hit pair now. It is a pair plus OESD, but T is dominated straight, so a lot of your outs are pretty bad. I think BB can have QT here as well. Certainly a reasonable candidate to bluff raise flop with. I could also see BB overcall pre with T7s and 75s. Not sure we would XR those on flop, but I think we could some of the time and they are both straights now on turn. So 99 is not really top of our range. I think I agree that folding 66 here to a 1/2 pot bet is a bit too nitty, even though it was correct. I think calling and then folding river might be reasonable.
A hand becomes not at that top of our range when it isn't. You have to look at the entire group of hands that you would get into a certain spot with and evaluate where each hand is in your range. On dynamic boards, this can change from street to street. Dynamic boards have the potential to change the relative strength of your hand with every new card that comes out. On a static board this is less likely so hand strengths tend to stay where they are at.
So in this spot lay out all the hands that you would call with preflop, in the BB. I think it is fair to say BB would now check 100% of the time on the flop. Now when facing a bet, take that group of hands that you had that called preflop and figure out all the hands you would now raise with and the ones you would just call with. Now you are on the turn with a group of hands facing a 1/2 pot donk bet. What hands are at top and what are at bottom?
I hate to say it, but 'it depends' lol. I can think of many times where sets can be the cusp of my value range, and times when TPWK is the cusp.
I think hero does have both QT and T7 in his preflop calling and (at least partially) in his flop check-raise range, so that's the new "top of our range".
It depends on how many hands you are check-raising the flop total to say if 66 is still at the top of our value range (if we do raise the flop very wide) or if it's now just the strongest part of our defend/bluff-catching range (if we raise very tight).
it's based on pot odds. you approximate based on a formula called mdf, or minimum defense frequency. It means that you must always have some hands to continue with based on the odds you are getting in order to neutralize EV villain gains when bluffing.
I agree with this Analysis. I think the only way you fold in that spot is if you have a live read. Even if he has the straight you still have like 13 outs. The only set you lose to is 9s. I don’t this 8s make it past a check raise. Qs and Js 3 bet pre.
I'm sorry, but wouldn't the outs be 7 instead of 13?
David Gámez it’s actually 10
Yes it is 10. 3-9s, 3-Js, 3-8s, 1-6. So we are not getting direct odds to call flop, but as James said there are implied odds of V1 calling behind, which he did, as well as money going in on further streets. There is however the issue that V1, some small percentage of the time, can have all sets, as he was the opener, as well as having 16 full combos of QT himself, as well as some combos of T7s and 75s. Not sure if this sways things enough. I still think a call is reasonable and decide on river and as played just fold river
Jon Sweet he’s not going call 10-7 in the Small Blind. You miss too often and it’s a bad hand to play out of position even if they’re suited. I would have called turn and when 4 to a straight came on the river, would fold. Seeing as even the bottom of V2s range would be 10s in my opinion makes the straight.
Yeah I know SB won't have that. I was saying the opener can have those hands
And what if we don't have pot odds or implied odds to call there? What if they need to have some things in their range that we're ahead of for us to justify calling? Can we call with our bottom set? I think that's an interesting question worth exploring.
Would folding the river once the queen comes be a smart move? With 4 to a straight out there, and potentially lots of 10s in villians range, seems like a muck at that point
I think if you're going to give certain advice (like betting bigger for value), you should go over the full implications of how that affects your overall strategy.
I.E. How often you think you'll have to incorporate smaller bet sizes in a spot like this, or at least a general idea. That might also help clear up some of these debates in the comments.
Just some constructive criticism, keep up the good work, longtime fan :)
I just started playing and your videos have been super helpful. I think a big problem I have is folding too much (frequencies?), as well as everything else obviously, but one thing at a time
Cheers! And welcome to poker =)
what do you think about hero calculating his pot odds by including an additional $33 from the bad reg on the button who probably will call the turn bet - especially if hero flats? that would make hero's pot odds percentage 20.5% hero's equity going into the river is 20% ... While that is slightly less than +EV, there is a good likelihood that both the unknown player and the bad reg will call hero's river shove of $51.50 if he makes a full house.
Very nice work. I love your channel and the content therewithin.
It seems to be that the hand even got James overthinking. The fold was ridiculous unless you are omniscient.
Today I placed 5c 10c and flopped bottom set. The guy first to act bet 2/3 he got a call and I decided to re-raise. Under the gun re raises me so I go all in. He hits quads on the river. Either way I’m gonna bust :p
two thoughts.
1. Even if he's overvaluates two pair we can safely assume he's gonna ship it on the river. There are a lot of bad river cards for us like broadways, anything in that draw related neighborhood and basically Anything that isn't one of those little cards is a really bad card for us. Based on stack sizes if you're calling you're basically comitting half your stack to the pot and the turn is where you decide wheather you're willing to trust he doesn't have a straight.
Odds say one of those not so great cards is going to come so if you're not going to call an all-in on the river with trips, because bottom set rightfully can't quite take the hit, why call now? If you call turn you're going to put yourself in a tough spot on the river. You might have the best hand, true, but aren't there better spots to pick investing so much of your stack? Maybe even same situation but heads up?
2. Just like your correct advice as of wanting to build a pot with the bottom set, that's what most people do when having a good hand, good or bad players. Facing two opponents, even most bad players normally wouldn't bet so big on a pair into two opponents so I don't think that's ever in his range here. I like your advice not to assume how others play, but that's such a universal thought process, you have to assume that he has two pair or better here.
Like assuming 90% of players wouldn't completely bluff-bet the flop in a 6 handed multiway pot, cause that would be just idiotic.
pumpkin pie brilliant analysis 👍
If he has 2 pair or better it's the easiest call ever.
Cowtymsmiesznego nope
Yes. I just checked with equilab. We have 47% equity against 2 pair or better.
Nice analysis, so I know what to do on the turn now. Assuming the river is a blank (eg: 2s), the villain will still shove.
What do I do there?
(I'd call because pot odds + top of my range)
Also, assuming we're calling all blank rivers, why not just shove turn to get all semi bluff hands eg:T8s, 78s, or weaker made hands eg:J9s to get it in bad?
If I just call turn, I call all blank river shoves too =)
chyauFUN you're making the assumption that someone in SB was plays a check, call, call check raise flop line into a donk vs pfr and flop check raiser with these hands, which honestly even with j9 is optimistic. 99 shouldn't be in there since it would likely check raise itself, and sure those other hands are present but do they donk out on the turn with a rainbow board?
Jamming turn hoping that these hands both play this way and call I think is wrong. Jamming has the added downside of likely making v1 play perfectly. It might be better if there was a flush draw on the flop, or maybe even a turned one, but even then you're risking alot with alot of assumptions. If you plan to always call or bet on a blank river you might as well call to protect your range, keep in bluffs, and keep in overpairs with little equity (v1).
Have you been to holiday split? thanks for the new vid!
I was in Vegas for WSOP. Finally back in the office =)
V1 plays aces terribly. With just the blinds left, that raise is too low considering the discount they get.
I agree hero's raise is too small
Folding that set on the turn is bad. Absolute worse case scenario, you only have 1 out going into the river. There's lots of pair + draws/2 pairs/over pairs/naked straight draws we're outright ahead of
If the straight got there on the turn, we still have about a 4:1 shot to improve with more than enough implied odds going to the river
Calling 33 is the right move. Weather v1 calls along or raises. We only have 50ish behind. It seems like a no brainer
Your videos are best
What is this poker app/website called?
What are some top books you recommend? (already read theory of poker and super system)
Live: The Course
Online: Poker's 1%
I'm happy I did not make a mistake
Without specific reads, or knowing how a particular player plays. I would not be folding here. Also, you have more than enough equity to stack your opponent should the board pair.
This is exactly the way iv been losing shove on the turn with trips
Hi Split!
Really like ur videos u are a nice guy gl with life
Cheers! And GLGL to you as well =)
hero c/r to 18, which was a pot a sized bet no? Where do you get the $30 number from?
I replied to this Q in a different comment, so I'll just copy/paste it here:
In short, pretend that you just called the bet....then add everything together...and your final size should be the summation + the call. So rounding the pot to $8 and the bet/call to $6, a pot-sized raise would be 6+(8+6+6+6)=32
Why the Villain 2 would lead turn with bluffs in a multiway pot? I think the fold was great, i can't see any other hand that is losing to this bottom set
A set has 10 outs against a straight on the turn. So if you are folding a set for a ½ pot sized turn bet, you are also folding OESDs and flushdraws, since they only have 8 and 9 outs respectively. I think, that is just way to nitty, especially because we also cant rule out, that me might donk with other hands like J8s or 98s, which we are way ahead off. Sure he could also have us crushed with a higher set, but that is very unlikely, as the hand played out. So I would not play bottom set any different from top set in a spot like this.
i went from thinking this guy made a terrible fold wow that's so bad to thinking oh shit he was beat hes a fucking wizard lol
Great fold.
Drew Dickinson I thought the bet by V2 made it fairly obvious he made the draw. Am I wrong?
I think you're 100% spot on. Good read.
Even if you know he has a straight here, odds dictate a call. Getting 3-1 direct odds so we need 25% equity and we have 20% to pair the board on river. Since we can be fairly certain the bad reg will also call, our implied odds more than make up the 5%.
i don't get it. 7.50 + 5.60 + 5.60 is 18.10. how is $30 as a check raise a pot sized bet? it seems to me the sizing was perfectly cut as a pot sized check raise.
John S multiply the last bet by 3, add pot and other bet to get to $30.
a pot bet is when you lay 2:1. i can;t be bothered rewinding the vid and looking but his raise was laying about 3:1 which is a half pot bet
i called in a similar spot yesterday online and lost my whole stack :(
The right play doesn't have a 100% success rate =)
Than screw the right play and have the safe play. Beginners like us arnt planning on winning or participating in major tournaments. Just a couple hundreds are enough for me so in this situation I would say GOOD FOLD
fred T but I do still play
I as well lost a hand in a similar situation, but when I took it to RCP, it was validated to me as a cooler situation..so I slept easy
But Why fold when you still have outs? I had the same situation one time when I had KK, flop was K 10 J. I was face with a bet and a 3 bet, I jam and both called me, turn with Q and river J, and I got the main pot. Sometimes you gotta risk it for the biscuit :).
I actually really like the fold. I really can’t see any other hand apart from queen ten the villain can have that check calls 5.60 then 18 dollars. I don’t think you do quite have the equity to call the 33 dollars.
What about implied odds? What about the implied odds of calling the turn and letting the reg in?
James (SplitSuit) him calling behind or even jamming in this spot bad reg or not would have me even more concerned that we are behind to at least one. If we go three ways to the river we don’t actually anything other than a 6 is going to give us the best hand. That leaves us with one clean out. I think it’s a poor strategy to think as the player behind calls and I boat up I can call a) he may not call, he can easily shove or fold, which then changes your implied odds and b) if you are getting a call there and you do boat up your still not guaranteed to have the best hand which is I think it’s a really good fold
If you fold here with your set then v2 can overbluf you and make a lot of money while doing that. You don't fold the top of your range in this situation because that will make it so easy to exploit you.
Kasper Wolsink if it’s just you and one villain yes that’s definitely fair but I can’t see any bluff that calls 18 dollars on the flop then leads out 33 on the turn against two opponents. I actually think the guy who sent this hand in made a really reasonable fold and there is actually a lot of things the guy doing this vid is not right about. I really don’t like how he breaks this hand down or is reasonings to make certain decisions
I think there is some fear in your game that is going to create a bigger issue in the long run. Sounds like something worth exploring =)
I'm not disagreeing with the analysis, but I've never understood this common definition of a 'pot-sized bet.' You state that a pot-sized check raise would be around $30 rather than $18 but there is $18 (actually $18.70) in the pot, not $30. This definition seems to assume that 'pot-sized' means the actual size of the pot ($18) plus a min-raise ($5.60 x 2, or $11.20). I don't understand the nomenclature.
In short, pretend that you just called the bet....then add everything together...and your final size should be the summation + the call. So rounding the pot to $8 and the bet/call to $6, a pot-sized raise would be 6+(8+6+6+6)=32
Thanks. I've always understood the math, I've just never understood why it was called "pot-sized" when it clearly isn't.
Cheers =)
Times the previous bet by 3 and add the other remaining bets plus the pot. That’s how to do it in PLO at least
In this case you’d do 5.60x 3 (16.8) then add the bad regs bet (16.8+5.6) 22.4 then add the 7.50 in the pot to make it 29.9, so $30 is a pot size bet
yea i guessed the Q10 correct
I always get lost in your pot count. I would calculate it 7.50 + 5.60 + 5.60 = 18.70 In what world this is ~30? It must be something i don't understand. What is it? And it's not fist video when it's like this. (you even have pot calculator in there in top middle)
You take the money previously in the pot before the bet and add three times the villain's bet to it. A pot sized bet means a bet which gives opponent 1:1 odds
Man, I might be full of myself, but I disagree with both James and Hero here:
Disagreement with James: Hero's check-raise size is perfect. It's not a super wet board, we want either villain to continue with all overpairs, all Jx as well as most TT and 9x. If he does, (assuming V2 folds) we'll have 49$ in the pot with 84.5$ behind.
Comfortable 28$ (57%) turn bet, comfortable 56.5$ (54%) river shove. Easy.
Disagreement with Hero: This is a horrendous fold.
1) we need 26% immediate eq, we'd have almost than even if he showed QT or T7.
2) we're almost certain to win another 51$ if the board pairs on the river.
3) he can be blocker betting worse hands such as JT, T9 or value betting 98, which we all crush.
4) V1 can still call with overpairs or strong Jx, improving out odds even further.
Just raise the 18$ you raised on the flop, but call the turn bet, planning on calling (or value betting) most rivers.
Are either of these players likely to fold draws, Jx, QQ+ if we go $30 vs $18? If yes, we have a conversation. If no, then what does $18 do that $30 does not?
1) I very much doubt a 100nl player (even a bad reg) is so bad that he wouldn't change his c-range depending on the sizing of the opponent.
2) It does something else that's very positive: It forces V2 to call as well with a very wide/weak range.
3) And even if V1's c-range would be similar on the flop, you'd have a very awkward stack size on the turn.
You would either have to over/potbet-shove the turn, folding a lot of hands you'd like him to call with. Or you'd need to bet very small on turn and river, making it a 3-street affair anyway.
Michel Charbonnier о
Why would you ever make such a weak check-raise with such a nutted hand? $18 is a terrible sizing and gives crazy-good odds to any draw or any top-pair/overpair hand that doesn't want to give up so easily. Hero should be raising to around $25 and commit from there.
Like I said, what do you gain? You still need all 3 streets to get the opponent in anyway, unless you overshove the turn, which folds out a ton of hands you don't want to fold.
Seems like a normal situation in online poker. You flop a set and there is a clear str. Another one is when you finally flop a set and there is 2 into the flush and 2 into the str. Just typical online poker
Obviously call turn then fold to an. All in on the riv if its a brick. Otherwise check down. Its not the best hand by far
it was a good fold end of the day, put his chips in when was ahead and got out when he was behind :)
This makes no sense. It was an incorrect fold because he was priced in and whenever you fold when you're priced in, you're making horrific mistakes
I hate myself for liking this game. I'm trying to figure out how much is strategy or luck...
Much.
I hope you're right, but there is a lot of chance to this game...Great videos!
Cheers Richard =)
70% skill and 30% luck, just my experiences.
SplitSuit - Surely the problem with check-raising by a larger amount is that we make it too expensive to bluff in other hands?
Isn't that the problem with a lot of your argument about bet sizing? If we open AA at 6X then we also have to open J10o on the button at 6X. You're just making it too expensive to play a balanced game.
Are my opponent's balanced? Do they know what balace is? If they do know what balance is, do they know how to exploit me when I am unbalanced?
Answer those questions first and see where the exploration takes you =)
I would say that anyone but the most beginner players knows how to exploit you if you size your bets according to the strength of your hand.
I massively disagree with that. Most players are horrific hand readers and have zero idea how to adjust properly to different sizes (in both global and singular situations)
James (SplitSuit) what ?? You think that players playing over a 100 dollars buy in don’t have the capability to see a 6x raise compared to a 3x raise ??? I’d like to know when the last time you sat down on a 0.50 1 dollar table online because you certainly do not give the players enough credit if you don’t think that they are aware of such glaring plays. I would pick that up straight away.
James (SplitSuit) what a horrible answer that is. To just suggest that nobody else knows what they are doing so you can do what you like.
Are you shoving the turn, James? There are some cards which really hurt us.
I likely just mash the turn, yeah.
we goto wait until the river
we dono wat the crazy dealer will make 😉
Good fold. 98? Extr rare
Would never fold here
Awful turn advice. Hero was absolutely correct to fold. It's fine to acknowledge different play styles & even that some opponents will be idiots. In fact; villain does play terribly here! He was foolish to lead. The flop action makes it a virtual certainty the turn is not checking through. His stupid lead should have ended the hand, but luckily there was a fish who thinks AA is never a fold.
mistake made waz chk rising 18$
instead if he had juzz caled 6$
he wud hv folded on turn without big loss
I can't really agree with you here James. Yes you're getting 3 to 1 on a call, but if you're putting V2 on exactly a straight, you don't have the equity to draw for a full house here.
So the only question is : does V2 ever have a bluff here. If you think he's a skilled opponent the answser will be yes, but against most fishy players the answer will be never. And seeing how V1 calls the river when he's clearly behind here with just an overpair, it seems pretty clear to me that you are facing very basic players, who can be exploited by making this kind of nitty fold.
But the only question is NOT does V2 ever bluff here. Yes, that is one of the questions...but so too are "if I call does V1 call too?" and "if V2 does only have straights, do I get paid if the board pairs on the river?"
so Jason Mercier on CO? O.o
I think on turn you are too often behind to call this, there are already complete draws while you have the bottom set, thus even if you improve you still might lose the hand.
Leading out after the flop would have been the best action. You have to play it as if you have the best had, but by check-raising it was basically a donation as you're giving an unknown player control as you're out of position. With a strong lead out, V2 probably dumps the draw and the hand plays out and the Hero takes the pot.
Absolutely no way V2 folds an open ender to a normal sized bet lol
He didn't fold to a normal size bet. V1 bet normal and V2 called and we raised. Even if we lead out pot, V1 will call and now V2 for sure will call as he is getting better odds now that V1 has called. Has an open ender to the nuts. XR actually gives us control of the hand. We now have initiative, but V2 didn't give a rip about that and donked turn, but that is pretty atypical. I think XR is best, but agree it needs to be bigger.
Nobody folds a draw on the flop =P
There is no way to avoid getting outdrawn by straights or flushes sometimes, its just part of the game.
Fold hehehhehe dude don’t play Poker anymore
Let’s be honest unless he is a complete novice which if you don’t know you can’t presume all the hands that he is saying he maybe value betting just are not there. Jack 8 at a push, jack 9 would be check raising flop, 6-8 no chance that calls 18 dollars on the flop, 9-10 nope, 98 again nope