Yes there is still a chance that going above 100% Lucky Hit with a skill is either not possible or provides no additional benefits but we won't be able to test that til launch
On your document you have 80% Lucky Hit chance for Ice Shards. Is that how Lucky Hit is going to work for multihit abilities? It's going to be the total and not just calculate 18% for each spear? I'm just trying to figure this out for my build planning and was wondering if you had confirmed info on it.
If going above 100% is possible it probably won't provide additional benefits at least to most skills, because the "up to"-wording. For example "Pressure Point - Lucky Hit: Your Core skills have up to a 30% chance to make enemies Vulnerable for 2 seconds." What do you think?
Lucky hit and the effect that can proc after it are two completely independent events. The only reason to multiply the probabilities is to determine the probability of them occurring simultaneously. Unless there is a hidden mechanic with lucky hit % in the game, there is no reason to go beyond 100% lucky hit because every hit will be lucky, it’s just a matter of will the effect proc afterwards (which the game should be rolling independently from the lucky hit stat). Assuming you can stack lucky hit% past 100 and it’s relevant, the proc effect still has a maximum (up-to) limit.
I appreciate the breakdown. Based on my experience, and like you say in the description, Sorc is definitely going to have some lucky hit builds. I was testing a crackling energy lucky hit build, and my screen was full of crackling energy orbs constantly. I almost never ran out even against Ashava. I'm excited to see if this build I messed with works out in the end-game because I really wanted to try a lightning sorc out.
I came to the same result while trying to understand the value behind "Alchemist's Fortune" rogue passive ability ++15% lucky hit). Basicaly just additive instead of multiplicative (*1.15 instead of +15% proc chance)
Nice dude! Thanks for this! I was mostly avoiding lucky hit mechanics on the build maker because its too difficult to know what is useful or not. Will definitely check out your tool!
Hey Don, in the Doc you provided, for Sorc for instance, I think it would be better if you just displayed the chance per actual hit, otherwise its a little misleading. Because for Ice Shard for instance the chance is per individual hit, so just multiplying the base crit chance *5 does not yield the chance that is actually interesting here, in fact it does not represent a probability at all. As of now we have 16% per hit on Ice Shard, according to you document that would mean 16%*2.4=38.4%. This value would then be multiplied by the "up to" value to yield the actual chance of lucky hit per hit so to say. Combining 5 ice shard hits by multiplying this chance by 5 is not how probability works. Its not clear what this value should even represent, as 10 hits for instance would yield above 100% which logically does not make sense. What one would actually need to do is to look at the lucky hit chance per hit and then compute a chance for the number of successes in an arbritary number of tries n and compute, for instance, the probability for at least one success in these n tries. This setting is captured by an binomial distribution see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution Multiplying probabilities in such cases by the number of tries is a common mistake gamer's make when encountering these kinds of things so I just wanted to point that out. :)
it's still unclear how calculated procentages of the skills inself, and how they proc on multihit skills. For example Hydra lucky hit chance showed for per skill use, practicaly dividing it by number of hits 1 Hydra can make (or will make) while it stands. If there is also some trickery with AOE skills and damage per second skills, actual proc frequency might be different from raw lucky hit chance number.
Precision magic says 'Your Lucky Hit Chance is increased by [15%] '. Frigid Fate says '[...] increases your lucky hit chance by +1% for 5 seconds, up to +15%'. As written this would mean frigid Fate may be additive, not multiplicative, which would make it much more useful. Was this ever confirmed somewhere or will we have to wait and see? :)
I think the shadowstep is not worth attempting. First of all, the aspect requires shadow step be imbued first; and it also requires it to crit (crits with imbued). That drastically lowers the chances from 23% (unless you force a crit with conceal), and also; you don’t want to be wasting a charge of poison imbue on a low damage spell like shadow step.
Biggest problem I have with games like this is : if I have a 50% chance of something, with an extra 10%, there's 2 completely different ways you can interpret this. Is it additive or multiplicative? Is it 50% + 10% = 60%? Or is it 10% OF the 50%, so 50% + (50% x 10%) = 55% ?
Finally? Hasn't this formula been known for ages? Very cool to see the potential maximums though! Shadowstep luckyhit build is going to be really cool using the "cd reset on kill" aspect. Can potentially just 1shit all the weaker mobs and proc lots of lucky hit effects all over! Also, barb can get 10% lucky hit from Polearm expertise, possibly another 10% depending on if the weapon technique stacks or not.
I’ve been wondering how lucky hit works with multiple “lucky hit” skills. Ex. If you have 2 items that give lucky hit: on crit do x, lucky hit: on crit do y. Would these go off the same lucky hit proc? Or would they both have separate rolls? I’m thinking of a chaos build and having all these random effects go off. But we’ll figure that out when the game comes out
Are you sure Alchemist Fortune and Second wind are multiplicative? Because the description seems like is aditive (most of multiplicative skills have [x] and those have [+] . In that case, the effect on, for example, Rapid Fire is 20->35% lucky hit chance and not 20->23%
3 combo points with Penetrating shot gives +30% Lucky hit chance and the skill has 50%. There's a legendary node that gives +33% more non-dps combo points bonus also that would make +40%. Two of rogue's capstone are based on lucky hit : victimize and exposure. Imbuements have also lucky hit upgrades (insta freeze and chance to double poison dps). And a lot of powerful legendary aspects (50% making vulnerable) and unique items (proc clones) are based on lucky hit. Rogue will be master of lucky hit.
ok, can someone explain what actually lucki hit does? I understand crit hit, but wtf is lucky hit? I'd really appreciate blizzard add some kind of diablopedia to the game explaining all the overpowers/vulnerable/injured/luckyhits etc estats and effects.
"lucky hitt" is just the renaming of what was before named "proc coefficient". If you have played other games or donne math, it should be a way easier way to think of it. It seems a lot of people are getting confused over the naming scheam blizzard is going with, instead of just using the proc rate terminoligy that was used before.
Very useful, thank you! Can you do a breakdown of the damage calculation for Overpower as well? Is it (base)+((health + fortify) * (overpower multiplier)), or is (base + health + fortify)*(overpower multiplier)?
Hello, can you make a video going over upgrading gear? Do you think its worth maxing out your gear every couple levels or hoard upgrade materials until you're max level?
I would imagine upgrading your weapons when you get new ones is probably the play. Save the vast majority of your mats for endgame. Just my thoughts, knowing diablo.
I saw a video recently explaining item Tiers. After seeing that I personally would just upgrade the items that has a chance to go up one tier level. Which ups the caps for the rolled stats from say 1-2% max increase to 2-5% max Attack speed, lets say. (This will also reroll that stat) So if you are unlucky the new upgraded item will roll with 2% and you might not gain anything. =/ Save some mats and money from not upgrading the items that can't reach a new tier. My plans for leveling at least. =)
My habit for gearing during the server slam was upgrading twice if my resources were plentiful, which they were. Three times if I had a really good, rare piece I wanted to keep as long as possible (I don't recommend this for full release, since we can go much higher than lvl 20). That said I agree with Don and Brass - prioritize weapons first. If you're out-leveling old armor fast, upgrading them really isn't necessary and can just become a drain on your materials and gold.
Have a question concerning on-screen damage reporting. I see white, yellow, blue, and very rarely deep orange color damage numbers on my screen while in battles. My question: I see a white text report of "Vulnerable". What does this mean and how does it relate to the damage reporting mentioned.
vulnerable is a debuff that makes enemies take more damage from you, its baseline 20% more damage + whatever Vulnerable damage you have from gear/paragons
its worded that way because only certain skills wil reach the proc chance. Shadowstep for example has a 100% lucky hit modifier, which would give this skill the max. of proccing the effect 30% of the time. Flurry has a 40% chance, so it would ne 0,4*0,3=0,12=12% So this skill would proc this effect way less than the item says, these modifiers are mainly to balance on hit effects between skills that can hit multiple enemies and the ones that cant.
⚠️ Can someone sense check this for the sorc Mastery Passive Static Discharge (Lucky Hit: Critical Strikes with Shock Skills have up to a 5% chance to form a Crackling Energy) The chance for this passive to spawn a Crackling Energy on an attack is: lucky hit chance * crit hit chance * 5% Assume 20% LH and 20% crit chance, the odds are 0.2*0.2*0.05=0.002 = 0.2% That seems INSANELY low 😅
welcome to rng on rng, and why most "lucky hitt splashing" will be a waste for most builds. you also forgot that, the lucky hitt that is listed on skills, is a proc coeficient, namely, it is multiplicative with you lucky hitt chance bonuses. Take ice shard for an example, it has an individual 16% chance to proc lucy hitt/ice shard that hitts. and lets say you want to proc crackling while having max lucky hitt as a sorc, without the elixir. Using the sheets summed lucky hitt chance off 108% bonus lucky hitt ice shard proc 0.16 * lucky hitt bonus (1+1,08) * crackling 1 point 0.05 = 0.01664 == 1.66% chance to proc that one passive per ice shard that hitts something. Since ice shard fires 5 projectiles, we can add the probability together if we want to get 1 proc, you have 8.32% chance to proc the passive 1 time per cast of ice shard. Now, this is a massive ammount off affix allocation to get this high bonus lucky hitt. But, at this point, we also have to add the probability of a critical hitt at the same time, using your examples crit chance of 20% we can devide the 1 proc/cast by 5 and get 1.66% total chance per cast. So fully invested in lucky hitt, you only have 1.66% chance to proc the passive per cast of ice shard. Welcome to why lucky hitt sucks in most use cases Edit: I just realised your 20% LH must have been the finished lucky hitt chance, after calculating skill proc coeficient (called lucky hitt% on the skill) plus bonus lucky hitt chance, derp
most lucky hit proc chance is very low, (majority up to 10%), how this could be powerful in sorcerer or rogue? eg: meteor enchantment has a 8% proc, and chain lightning has a 25% proc, and you have 100% lucky hit stat 0,08x0,25x2=0,04 i will have 4% per hit to proc meteor enchantment, wich, for me is very low
@@DonTheCrown, the idea I kept having problems with was a WW barb. They get vulnerability (besides the glyph everyone uses) by luck on hit 30%. WW is only 25% and isn't affected by attack speed. I can't help but think that we should be able to get more use out of that interaction. Ive even tried to manipulate our aspects to have burning rage and tornado, so we essentially do have more tics. Not sure if aspects can interact like that either. It was just a thought and wanted to get your opinion on something like that.
Based on the numbers of the other items I have the feeling that this Cowl of the Nameless is a bug and Blizzard's developers just missed the decimal point and that it should be 1.5-2.5%. :D Could be wrong though and they intended to make it some sort of a special feature for the rogues.
There's also the fact it requires a crowd-controlled target in order for that bonus to function, which means that against a boss - it'll only provide that bonus when it's in a staggered state. To stagger a boss multiple times, you need a build with lots of CC in it which means you've dedicated a good portion of it to that purpose. That definitely evens out the playing field when giving the item such a huge number.
Im italian and have some issue to understand the video... So to calculate the chance of my lucky hit i have to add my base chance and other chances on my equip? Its right?
I could watch 50 videos on lucky hit and it just doesn't make any sense. So I'll just ignore everything in the game that says lucky hit. It basically sounds like a proc that doesn't proc with the % it tells you just a hidden % which makes no sense. Just tell people it's only 3% instead of pretending it's 50%
@@DonTheCrown I've watched every video including this one. Still don't really make sense. It's like a proc chance of a proc. I don't think any class will ever rely on a meta lucky hit build so I'll just skip it all
@@Daventry85 hmmm yeah you basically just get a percent of a percent to figure out if something is going to happen. Just like rolling two dice and something happens if both roll 5-6
@DonTheCrown On Lorthrik build calculator the lucky hit chance is either per use or per hit i can understand how per hit works but i don't understand how lucky hit works for (per use) on ability's like the necro bone storm or decompose. Decompose is a channeling ability does that mean i can spam click decompose to spam lucky hit (per use) to proc like crazy? and does bonestorm only proc lucky hit once when i use it?
I hope so. I’ve been planning on using Rogue’s Penetrating Strike with the Trickshot Aspect. It spits into 2 arrows everytime it hits an enemy. Pair that with Exposure or Victimize and I think its going to be wild.
Depends on the lucky hit effect. If its straight up damage increase, it is calculated yes. If it is a chance to proc something, the total lucky hit chance is divided onto all the instances of damage. There are exceptions, however, like Twisting Blades with Bladedancer has 5 different instances to proc Lucky Hit at the full percentage which is nuts.
Why aren't you explaining how you reached over 100% when initially it seems that it's obviously DR: 35% * 1.15% (from that passive) which makes it 40%. That entire table where values go over 100% seems cringe because u cannot go over 100% if it's DR, can you elaborate? Which are liniar and which are multiplicative?
that table is all the additive bonuses you can get from items, so like multiple pieces of gear have the same Increased Lucky hit chance which then multiplies against the base like the example also its lucky hit not DR
@@DonTheCrown I meant DR as in diminishing return, not sure what you are referring by "it's lucky hit not DR". Basically in the video you posted it seems to be multiplicative and I'm pretty sure it's the same from stacking items (you won't be adding them up, but multiplying them and it will be impossible to go over 100%, that's how diminishing return works. Also Kripp explained that on multi-hit skills (i.e. IceShards / he used the Hydra with hits per head as an example to explain how bad the chance actually is) the stated Lucky Hit is the sum of all the hits, basically for the IceShards with 80% example they have 5x hits => 16% lucky hit per shard, this is the "base lucky hit" for that skill and to that I'm pretty sure we would multiply the 15% and the rest from items / potion /etc (the x30% pot seems to be the most you can get at once so it will have the greatest effect)
you are conflating what is being shown. If stated mathematicly instead, lucky hitt = proc coefficient, what you are "trying" to convey seems to be the mathematical TOTAL probability, but you are forgetting that if you have a total probability of x event happening of 200%, you can set it instead as the probability of 2 exactly the same events happening. and is more accurate way of describing how proc coefficients work in d4 flame shield = 35% and with 15% bonus lucky hitt chance you have a total off 0.35*(1+0.15) = 0.35*1.15 =0.4025 -> 40.25% chance to proc over it's duration, a lucky hitt that has 100% chance of happening. What you speak of as "DR" is not a dr, but instead a proc coefficient of the skill itself. As for the ice shard example, you are technicly correct on the proc part, ice shards individual proc coefficient is 16%, so mathematicly, that is how it should be calculated, BUT you miss what he was "trying" to show, and that was an example of 1 proc for 1 cast of ice shard, wich is 5 hitts, totaling up to 80% probability per cast, provided you are looking for the probability of x event 1 time. What you are claiming is the DR, is technicly correct. The more you invest in to lucky hitt, the less you get back compared to what you previously got back for the investment. Same as if you already have 500% increased frost dmg, adding 10% frost dmg, is not actualy 10% multiplicative, but addative, causing 500% to go to 510% instead of 550%. This type of diminishing return occur on all addative bonuses and is already a given in the community (atleast the one that came from poe, as we have been used to it for a while, same with d3 community).
Is Shred lucky hit chance per hit or for the total three hits? For instance lucky hit chance for hydra is if all heads fireballs hit for all 10 seconds, not lucky hit chance for individuallt hits
Is Crowl of the nameless only for Rogue because druid would take advantage of that as well, they only need 100% lucky hit chance for some of there skill because they have a baseline of 50 so 25% is really good
you seem to be under the wrong impression, lucky hitt listed in skills, is a proc coeficient that is multiplied, not added to. What blizzard did, was just rename the naming therm used before, namely renaming proc coefficient to lucky hitt, and this is causing lots off ppl to think that it works way better than what it actualy does (seing as most lucky hitt procs are in the single digits, or low double digits range)
My brain hurts. To me it still looks like lucky hit is just isn't worth the time. If spell X has a 25% Lucky hit chance, and spell Y has a 10% lucky hit chance after spell X, then you have a 2.5% chance of it happening. If that's how it is, me thinks its best to ignore that system. ------------------------------------What is my small hurting brain missing?---------------------------------------
skills that have low % chance typically hit a LOT. Just think if I whirlwind (20% LHC) in a pack of 10 enemies, I'm hitting about 30 times a second. So even at 2% chance that's a lot of chances and around 46% aggregate chance to have 1 proc
@@DonTheCrown If I put three points into precision (sorc tree) does the added 15% Lucky Hit chance get added to the skills's lucky hit chance AND the proc's lucky hit chance?
Lucky hit builds IMO will be very op when the game launches. Most of the player base doesn't understand how to value the stat. Every video including this one goes over what the chance is and how to calculate for one instance, but this is far less important than procs per second for gauging effectiveness. Especially if you can acquire proc sources that work concurrently. IE if I have 3 tornados out that can proc lucky hit, and am also hitting stormstrike for instance. This stat that seems like it isn't very useful is actually really powerful.
@@Crazy-Jukebox obviously it is trash and unreliable, as unlike crit chance/crit dmh you can't rly stack it. Heck even overpower with guaranteed hits of it is WAY better than lucky hit would ever be(aside maybe specific single target killing builds).
we can take the sorc passive Snap Freeze as an example with the number in the sheet, and use ice shard as the basis: ice shard lucky hitt per projectile hitt = 16% and it shoots 5 projectiles all bonuses from geare and passives maxed out = 108% bonus (under the asumption that the elixir will not be enabled Snap Freeze gives lucky hitt 9% chance to freeze on hitt Lets see the chance to get snap freeze to proc 1 time with 1 cast of ice shard (asuming all 5 projectiles hitt) (0.16*5)*2.08*0.09=0,14976 -> 14,97% chance to proc freeze 1 time with 1 full cast of ice shard or for individual hitt per shard, we divide by 5 and get 2.99% So each individual projectile from ice shard, now has a 2.99% to instantly freeze, and this is with MAXED investment in to lucky hitt So unless you go massivly in to lucky hitt, dont expect to rely on lucky hitt in any build what so ever
@DonTheCrown I kid not I just found one about 2 hours ago, first one. What are the odds of that.... I've gotten maybe 15 word of Hakan and maybe 20 eyes in the dark.... and finally got this one. Time for some lucky hits shenanigans.
Butchers Cleaver: Lucky Hit: When you Critically Strike an enemy you have up to a 100% chance to Fear and Slow them by [[40 - 75]|%|] for 4 seconds. Can anyone explain Blizzards broken logic and explain this simple sentence? 3 Different rolls in this one proc? Lucky Hit, but only if you crit, and UP TO 100% chance to do something IF you crit, AND Lucky hit? WTFF?
The reason there's three different rolls involved is it's a very powerful effect and may not have an internal cooldown which means it can proc multiple times in a row. By pressuring you to focus your build on both Lucky Hit and Critical Strikes, they're encouraging game balance so it doesn't just become a total 'Best in Slot' item for every build that wants CC in it. If this didn't have the Critical Strike check, this would absolutely decimate bosses with Lucky Hit builds because of how easily it would cause Stagger states.
here is the math using an example of barbarian using bash. bash= 50% lucky hitt = 0.5 proc coefficient lets say we have MAXXED out all our geare with bonus lucky hitt = 93% bonus lucky hitt we asume a 20% crit chance Butchers cleaver lucky hitt proc is a 100% on critical strike proc 0.5*(1+0.93)*0.2*1=0,193 -> 19.3% chance per use of the ability bash, to proc the butchers lucky hitt trigger, and that is with MAX geare and investment in to lucky hitt. If we take an example without ANY investment in to luck hitt with the same crit chance: 0.5*0.2=0.1 -> 10% chance per use of the bash skill to proc the effect
This kind of stuff makes me consider canceling my preorder of Diablo IV. More complex =/= better or more fun. I shouldn't need a spreadsheet and a calculator to play a dungeon crawler.
well I can kinda agree with that; however, this stuff has always been in the game, this is just the first time they're actually making it a stat you can mess around with. So you could just ignore it, except now its a lot easier to see how its working.
@DonTheCrown Add this to the fact that almost all damage increase effects are tiny *and* conditional (+3% damage to stunned enemies, etc) and you've gor a game that is not friendly to new or casual players. Considering casual players make up the vast majority of players, this means less money for Blizzard and, in turn, less ongoing support, expansions, etc for the game. The more I think about it, the less excited I get for Diablo IV.
@@jonsnowight9510 Except casual players won't dig into all the stats they probably won't even have the tooltip on their skills displaying lucky hit chance. Instead they just play the game have fun, kill stuff, find and equip better loot. This is a perfectly fine way to play the game if that's how you enjoy it. But don't ask developers to create dumbed down games. Games can both be complex and simple at the same time.
@purplestone134 Casual players just don't have the time or the desire to play video games for 8-12 hours/day or to spend hours going over spreadsheets in order to maximize their character. That doesn't make them dumb or mean they don't want to understand the game they're playing. Again, more complex =/= better or more fun, it just equals more complex, which is not necessarily a good thing. Not every game needs to be POE, especially if it's intended for a broad audience, which Diablo IV certainly is.
@@jonsnowight9510 yeah I totally agree, the alternative would be having these items have "a chance to proc" with no information about how often, seems more complex but its giving good info
![[DIABLO 4] THIS Might Surprise You! - Lucky Hit Chance Deep Dive](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/MHNkKxKXoek/mqdefault.jpg)
![[DIABLO 4] THIS Might Surprise You! - Lucky Hit Chance Deep Dive](/img/tr.png)
![[GUIDE] New Player Guide to MERCENARIES - Diablo 2 Resurrected](/img/n.gif)
Yes there is still a chance that going above 100% Lucky Hit with a skill is either not possible or provides no additional benefits but we won't be able to test that til launch
On your document you have 80% Lucky Hit chance for Ice Shards. Is that how Lucky Hit is going to work for multihit abilities? It's going to be the total and not just calculate 18% for each spear? I'm just trying to figure this out for my build planning and was wondering if you had confirmed info on it.
If going above 100% is possible it probably won't provide additional benefits at least to most skills, because the "up to"-wording. For example "Pressure Point - Lucky Hit: Your Core skills have up to a 30% chance to make enemies Vulnerable for 2 seconds." What do you think?
Lucky hit and the effect that can proc after it are two completely independent events. The only reason to multiply the probabilities is to determine the probability of them occurring simultaneously. Unless there is a hidden mechanic with lucky hit % in the game, there is no reason to go beyond 100% lucky hit because every hit will be lucky, it’s just a matter of will the effect proc afterwards (which the game should be rolling independently from the lucky hit stat).
Assuming you can stack lucky hit% past 100 and it’s relevant, the proc effect still has a maximum (up-to) limit.
sir, does every damage has a chance of lucky hit or JUST those active skill does?
this was an instant sub from me. no bs. no dumb long into. no click bait.
I appreciate the breakdown.
Based on my experience, and like you say in the description, Sorc is definitely going to have some lucky hit builds. I was testing a crackling energy lucky hit build, and my screen was full of crackling energy orbs constantly. I almost never ran out even against Ashava. I'm excited to see if this build I messed with works out in the end-game because I really wanted to try a lightning sorc out.
Hi, can you share what you had in mind for a crackling build? Thank you!
I came to the same result while trying to understand the value behind "Alchemist's Fortune" rogue passive ability ++15% lucky hit). Basicaly just additive instead of multiplicative (*1.15 instead of +15% proc chance)
Nice dude! Thanks for this! I was mostly avoiding lucky hit mechanics on the build maker because its too difficult to know what is useful or not. Will definitely check out your tool!
The word Lucky Hit gives me Shenmue 2 flashbacks haha, great video :)
Hello! Thank you , classes are revealed in a new way after your videos.
thanks!
Hey Don, in the Doc you provided, for Sorc for instance, I think it would be better if you just displayed the chance per actual hit, otherwise its a little misleading. Because for Ice Shard for instance the chance is per individual hit, so just multiplying the base crit chance *5 does not yield the chance that is actually interesting here, in fact it does not represent a probability at all.
As of now we have 16% per hit on Ice Shard, according to you document that would mean 16%*2.4=38.4%. This value would then be multiplied by the "up to" value to yield the actual chance of lucky hit per hit so to say. Combining 5 ice shard hits by multiplying this chance by 5 is not how probability works. Its not clear what this value should even represent, as 10 hits for instance would yield above 100% which logically does not make sense. What one would actually need to do is to look at the lucky hit chance per hit and then compute a chance for the number of successes in an arbritary number of tries n and compute, for instance, the probability for at least one success in these n tries. This setting is captured by an binomial distribution see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
Multiplying probabilities in such cases by the number of tries is a common mistake gamer's make when encountering these kinds of things so I just wanted to point that out. :)
ah yeah true true, i wanted to use a different skill but people were like no no ice shards #1 see and yeah
@@DonTheCrown Love litterally all your content keep it up :)
Greetings, xtheBerti from Twitch
it's still unclear how calculated procentages of the skills inself, and how they proc on multihit skills. For example Hydra lucky hit chance showed for per skill use, practicaly dividing it by number of hits 1 Hydra can make (or will make) while it stands. If there is also some trickery with AOE skills and damage per second skills, actual proc frequency might be different from raw lucky hit chance number.
Precision magic says 'Your Lucky Hit Chance is increased by [15%] '.
Frigid Fate says '[...] increases your lucky hit chance by +1% for 5 seconds, up to +15%'.
As written this would mean frigid Fate may be additive, not multiplicative, which would make it much more useful. Was this ever confirmed somewhere or will we have to wait and see? :)
on Lothrik both are +lucky hit, which is typically the best site for this sort of notation lothrik.github.io/diablo4-build-calc/
im pretty certain if there's a +, then it's additive, meanwhile an increase by % may just multiply by 1.15
@@DonTheCrown Thanks for the clarification. Too bad for my build, but good to know. :D
I think the shadowstep is not worth attempting. First of all, the aspect requires shadow step be imbued first; and it also requires it to crit (crits with imbued). That drastically lowers the chances from 23% (unless you force a crit with conceal), and also; you don’t want to be wasting a charge of poison imbue on a low damage spell like shadow step.
yeah something that hits a bunch is likely better, just giving concrete, easy to understand examples
Biggest problem I have with games like this is : if I have a 50% chance of something, with an extra 10%, there's 2 completely different ways you can interpret this. Is it additive or multiplicative? Is it 50% + 10% = 60%? Or is it 10% OF the 50%, so 50% + (50% x 10%) = 55% ?
Loving the analytic videos your putting out. Super helpful! 👊🏻
Finally? Hasn't this formula been known for ages? Very cool to see the potential maximums though!
Shadowstep luckyhit build is going to be really cool using the "cd reset on kill" aspect. Can potentially just 1shit all the weaker mobs and proc lots of lucky hit effects all over!
Also, barb can get 10% lucky hit from Polearm expertise, possibly another 10% depending on if the weapon technique stacks or not.
You forgot to add. Upgrading weapons at blacksmith increases lucky hit as well
I’ve been wondering how lucky hit works with multiple “lucky hit” skills. Ex. If you have 2 items that give lucky hit: on crit do x, lucky hit: on crit do y. Would these go off the same lucky hit proc? Or would they both have separate rolls? I’m thinking of a chaos build and having all these random effects go off. But we’ll figure that out when the game comes out
"If you have multiple Lucky Hit effects, their probabilities roll independently." source: diablo4.cc/us/Glossary
@@DonTheCrown
/nod
Are you sure Alchemist Fortune and Second wind are multiplicative? Because the description seems like is aditive (most of multiplicative skills have [x] and those have [+] . In that case, the effect on, for example, Rapid Fire is 20->35% lucky hit chance and not 20->23%
Greetings from South Africa. Thanks for all your awesome information sharing.
thanks!
Redeye, we need to group up bud !!
@@brandonhorn3896 Sounds like a great plan
3 combo points with Penetrating shot gives +30% Lucky hit chance and the skill has 50%. There's a legendary node that gives +33% more non-dps combo points bonus also that would make +40%. Two of rogue's capstone are based on lucky hit : victimize and exposure. Imbuements have also lucky hit upgrades (insta freeze and chance to double poison dps). And a lot of powerful legendary aspects (50% making vulnerable) and unique items (proc clones) are based on lucky hit. Rogue will be master of lucky hit.
Nice thx for all ur hard work ! I'll try fire sorc immobilisation proc, hope it'll works
watching all these, tryingto catch up :)
The lucky chance elixir is there... I believe it is loot only(?)
ok, can someone explain what actually lucki hit does? I understand crit hit, but wtf is lucky hit? I'd really appreciate blizzard add some kind of diablopedia to the game explaining all the overpowers/vulnerable/injured/luckyhits etc estats and effects.
here professor diablo has gotcha: ua-cam.com/video/rMq1YWZucXA/v-deo.html
"lucky hitt" is just the renaming of what was before named "proc coefficient". If you have played other games or donne math, it should be a way easier way to think of it. It seems a lot of people are getting confused over the naming scheam blizzard is going with, instead of just using the proc rate terminoligy that was used before.
Thanks for video! 😁
Did you include polearm expertise for Barb? It gives lucky hit as well.
GOOD CATCH
Very good video and resources as always mister Don :)
Note: 100% is the max chance.
Very useful, thank you! Can you do a breakdown of the damage calculation for Overpower as well? Is it (base)+((health + fortify) * (overpower multiplier)), or is (base + health + fortify)*(overpower multiplier)?
1st one, overpower multi doesnt effect your base damage
Hello, can you make a video going over upgrading gear? Do you think its worth maxing out your gear every couple levels or hoard upgrade materials until you're max level?
I would imagine upgrading your weapons when you get new ones is probably the play. Save the vast majority of your mats for endgame. Just my thoughts, knowing diablo.
always upgrade weapons I'd imagine, armors not so much
I saw a video recently explaining item Tiers. After seeing that I personally would just upgrade the items that has a chance to go up one tier level. Which ups the caps for the rolled stats from say 1-2% max increase to 2-5% max Attack speed, lets say. (This will also reroll that stat) So if you are unlucky the new upgraded item will roll with 2% and you might not gain anything. =/
Save some mats and money from not upgrading the items that can't reach a new tier. My plans for leveling at least. =)
My habit for gearing during the server slam was upgrading twice if my resources were plentiful, which they were. Three times if I had a really good, rare piece I wanted to keep as long as possible (I don't recommend this for full release, since we can go much higher than lvl 20). That said I agree with Don and Brass - prioritize weapons first. If you're out-leveling old armor fast, upgrading them really isn't necessary and can just become a drain on your materials and gold.
I didn't see it in your sheet, but I think wands are guaranteed to have a bonus to lucky hit chance
oooh did not know that
Have a question concerning on-screen damage reporting. I see white, yellow, blue, and very rarely deep orange color damage numbers on my screen while in battles. My question: I see a white text report of "Vulnerable". What does this mean and how does it relate to the damage reporting mentioned.
vulnerable is a debuff that makes enemies take more damage from you, its baseline 20% more damage + whatever Vulnerable damage you have from gear/paragons
How exactly is "up to 30%" treated? Does it just mean 30 effect lucky hit % in the formula or is there more to the wording?
its worded that way because only certain skills wil reach the proc chance. Shadowstep for example has a 100% lucky hit modifier, which would give this skill the max. of proccing the effect 30% of the time. Flurry has a 40% chance, so it would ne 0,4*0,3=0,12=12% So this skill would proc this effect way less than the item says, these modifiers are mainly to balance on hit effects between skills that can hit multiple enemies and the ones that cant.
⚠️ Can someone sense check this for the sorc Mastery Passive Static Discharge (Lucky Hit: Critical Strikes with Shock Skills have up to a 5% chance to form a Crackling Energy)
The chance for this passive to spawn a Crackling Energy on an attack is: lucky hit chance * crit hit chance * 5%
Assume 20% LH and 20% crit chance, the odds are 0.2*0.2*0.05=0.002 = 0.2%
That seems INSANELY low 😅
welcome to rng on rng, and why most "lucky hitt splashing" will be a waste for most builds.
you also forgot that, the lucky hitt that is listed on skills, is a proc coeficient, namely, it is multiplicative with you lucky hitt chance bonuses.
Take ice shard for an example, it has an individual 16% chance to proc lucy hitt/ice shard that hitts. and lets say you want to proc crackling while having max lucky hitt as a sorc, without the elixir. Using the sheets summed lucky hitt chance off 108% bonus lucky hitt
ice shard proc 0.16 * lucky hitt bonus (1+1,08) * crackling 1 point 0.05 = 0.01664 == 1.66% chance to proc that one passive per ice shard that hitts something.
Since ice shard fires 5 projectiles, we can add the probability together if we want to get 1 proc, you have 8.32% chance to proc the passive 1 time per cast of ice shard.
Now, this is a massive ammount off affix allocation to get this high bonus lucky hitt.
But, at this point, we also have to add the probability of a critical hitt at the same time, using your examples crit chance of 20%
we can devide the 1 proc/cast by 5 and get 1.66% total chance per cast.
So fully invested in lucky hitt, you only have 1.66% chance to proc the passive per cast of ice shard. Welcome to why lucky hitt sucks in most use cases
Edit: I just realised your 20% LH must have been the finished lucky hitt chance, after calculating skill proc coeficient (called lucky hitt% on the skill) plus bonus lucky hitt chance, derp
I think that Cowl is rogue only, yet your table shows it equipped on everyone.
is lucky hit able to proc two different effects at the same time?
Yes. Once lucky hit is successful, all effects depending on it are calculated separately.
If my math is correct. Lucky hit is 72848289284x worse than just going crit chance/dmg. Nice
Thank you!
most lucky hit proc chance is very low, (majority up to 10%), how this could be powerful in sorcerer or rogue?
eg: meteor enchantment has a 8% proc, and chain lightning has a 25% proc, and you have 100% lucky hit stat
0,08x0,25x2=0,04
i will have 4% per hit to proc meteor enchantment, wich, for me is very low
yupp, this is why i dont get what ppl are overblowing how supposedly "OP" lucky hitt is, when in reality, it's just a renaming off proc coefficient
in your opinion, should you be stacking lucky hit on gear? The way the math works out, it doesn't seem like you get all that much for getting alot
depends on your build, some builds really benefit from it
@@DonTheCrown, the idea I kept having problems with was a WW barb. They get vulnerability (besides the glyph everyone uses) by luck on hit 30%. WW is only 25% and isn't affected by attack speed. I can't help but think that we should be able to get more use out of that interaction. Ive even tried to manipulate our aspects to have burning rage and tornado, so we essentially do have more tics. Not sure if aspects can interact like that either. It was just a thought and wanted to get your opinion on something like that.
@@ooanticsoo4475 I use kick for Vuln, its really underrated check my guide
I wanna try the venom proc with the explosion when using an imbument. Just mash the button for a few sec
They should give the formulas In-Game tbo
Based on the numbers of the other items I have the feeling that this Cowl of the Nameless is a bug and Blizzard's developers just missed the decimal point and that it should be 1.5-2.5%. :D
Could be wrong though and they intended to make it some sort of a special feature for the rogues.
Nah I think helm has to compete with harlequin crest so it should be strong
There's also the fact it requires a crowd-controlled target in order for that bonus to function, which means that against a boss - it'll only provide that bonus when it's in a staggered state. To stagger a boss multiple times, you need a build with lots of CC in it which means you've dedicated a good portion of it to that purpose. That definitely evens out the playing field when giving the item such a huge number.
@@DonTheCrown I agree. Harlequin really needs strong competitors so we have actual options for high end build diversity.
Im italian and have some issue to understand the video... So to calculate the chance of my lucky hit i have to add my base chance and other chances on my equip? Its right?
Good find
I could watch 50 videos on lucky hit and it just doesn't make any sense. So I'll just ignore everything in the game that says lucky hit. It basically sounds like a proc that doesn't proc with the % it tells you just a hidden % which makes no sense. Just tell people it's only 3% instead of pretending it's 50%
This might help: ua-cam.com/video/rMq1YWZucXA/v-deo.html
@@DonTheCrown I've watched every video including this one. Still don't really make sense. It's like a proc chance of a proc. I don't think any class will ever rely on a meta lucky hit build so I'll just skip it all
@@Daventry85 hmmm
yeah you basically just get a percent of a percent to figure out if something is going to happen. Just like rolling two dice and something happens if both roll 5-6
@@Daventry85 sounds like you get it. thats pretty much what it is.
Do you really think it’s not a good idea to imbue the weapon? It seems like you would farm enough gold to imbue each weapon you get
It is very expensive, if you get good weapon with + to your key skills and you plan to use it next 10-15 levels then go for it
nah, imagine having to go back to town every time you want to weapon swap, plus you tear through materials fast af
@@DonTheCrown right, I always forget about the mats!
@DonTheCrown On Lorthrik build calculator the lucky hit chance is either per use or per hit i can understand how per hit works but i don't understand how lucky hit works for (per use) on ability's like the necro bone storm or decompose. Decompose is a channeling ability does that mean i can spam click decompose to spam lucky hit (per use) to proc like crazy? and does bonestorm only proc lucky hit once when i use it?
think it assumes that you hit with all hits
I hope so. I’ve been planning on using Rogue’s Penetrating Strike with the Trickshot Aspect. It spits into 2 arrows everytime it hits an enemy. Pair that with Exposure or Victimize and I think its going to be wild.
Does the lucky hit apply to skills with DoT ticks as well, or is it only applied to the initial hit of the skill?
Depends on the lucky hit effect. If its straight up damage increase, it is calculated yes. If it is a chance to proc something, the total lucky hit chance is divided onto all the instances of damage. There are exceptions, however, like Twisting Blades with Bladedancer has 5 different instances to proc Lucky Hit at the full percentage which is nuts.
Why aren't you explaining how you reached over 100% when initially it seems that it's obviously DR: 35% * 1.15% (from that passive) which makes it 40%. That entire table where values go over 100% seems cringe because u cannot go over 100% if it's DR, can you elaborate? Which are liniar and which are multiplicative?
that table is all the additive bonuses you can get from items, so like multiple pieces of gear have the same Increased Lucky hit chance which then multiplies against the base like the example also its lucky hit not DR
@@DonTheCrown I meant DR as in diminishing return, not sure what you are referring by "it's lucky hit not DR". Basically in the video you posted it seems to be multiplicative and I'm pretty sure it's the same from stacking items (you won't be adding them up, but multiplying them and it will be impossible to go over 100%, that's how diminishing return works. Also Kripp explained that on multi-hit skills (i.e. IceShards / he used the Hydra with hits per head as an example to explain how bad the chance actually is) the stated Lucky Hit is the sum of all the hits, basically for the IceShards with 80% example they have 5x hits => 16% lucky hit per shard, this is the "base lucky hit" for that skill and to that I'm pretty sure we would multiply the 15% and the rest from items / potion /etc (the x30% pot seems to be the most you can get at once so it will have the greatest effect)
you are conflating what is being shown. If stated mathematicly instead, lucky hitt = proc coefficient, what you are "trying" to convey seems to be the mathematical TOTAL probability, but you are forgetting that if you have a total probability of x event happening of 200%, you can set it instead as the probability of 2 exactly the same events happening. and is more accurate way of describing how proc coefficients work in d4
flame shield = 35% and with 15% bonus lucky hitt chance you have a total off 0.35*(1+0.15) = 0.35*1.15 =0.4025 -> 40.25% chance to proc over it's duration, a lucky hitt that has 100% chance of happening.
What you speak of as "DR" is not a dr, but instead a proc coefficient of the skill itself.
As for the ice shard example, you are technicly correct on the proc part, ice shards individual proc coefficient is 16%, so mathematicly, that is how it should be calculated, BUT you miss what he was "trying" to show, and that was an example of 1 proc for 1 cast of ice shard, wich is 5 hitts, totaling up to 80% probability per cast, provided you are looking for the probability of x event 1 time.
What you are claiming is the DR, is technicly correct. The more you invest in to lucky hitt, the less you get back compared to what you previously got back for the investment. Same as if you already have 500% increased frost dmg, adding 10% frost dmg, is not actualy 10% multiplicative, but addative, causing 500% to go to 510% instead of 550%.
This type of diminishing return occur on all addative bonuses and is already a given in the community (atleast the one that came from poe, as we have been used to it for a while, same with d3 community).
You think it would be a good idea to build around lucky crit as rogue since a chance within a chance to actually proc?
bursting venoms seems like insane dps if you can keep it going all the time
Is Shred lucky hit chance per hit or for the total three hits? For instance lucky hit chance for hydra is if all heads fireballs hit for all 10 seconds, not lucky hit chance for individuallt hits
per hit, 20% a hit
Based on your percentages my druid can still 1 shot Every class in pvp
If a skill has 33% lucky hit and 3 attacks. Is the lucky hit 33%*3 or is it 33%/3?
depends on the skill, according to lothrik most multi projectiles are per hit
@@DonTheCrown thanks! Great content
Is Crowl of the nameless only for Rogue because druid would take advantage of that as well, they only need 100% lucky hit chance for some of there skill because they have a baseline of 50 so 25% is really good
fairly sure its rogue only
you seem to be under the wrong impression, lucky hitt listed in skills, is a proc coeficient that is multiplied, not added to.
What blizzard did, was just rename the naming therm used before, namely renaming proc coefficient to lucky hitt, and this is causing lots off ppl to think that it works way better than what it actualy does (seing as most lucky hitt procs are in the single digits, or low double digits range)
@@gampie13 I was just thinking 50%(claw)+25%(cowl)=62.5%, then combine it with overload for example
62.5%*20%=12.5%, sorry for the confusion
My brain hurts. To me it still looks like lucky hit is just isn't worth the time. If spell X has a 25% Lucky hit chance, and spell Y has a 10% lucky hit chance after spell X, then you have a 2.5% chance of it happening. If that's how it is, me thinks its best to ignore that system.
------------------------------------What is my small hurting brain missing?---------------------------------------
skills that have low % chance typically hit a LOT. Just think if I whirlwind (20% LHC) in a pack of 10 enemies, I'm hitting about 30 times a second. So even at 2% chance that's a lot of chances and around 46% aggregate chance to have 1 proc
@@DonTheCrown If I put three points into precision (sorc tree) does the added 15% Lucky Hit chance get added to the skills's lucky hit chance AND the proc's lucky hit chance?
Nope, skill LH chance * Proc LH chance * (1 + hero LH chance) = proc chance per enemy hit * 100.
Lucky hit builds IMO will be very op when the game launches. Most of the player base doesn't understand how to value the stat. Every video including this one goes over what the chance is and how to calculate for one instance, but this is far less important than procs per second for gauging effectiveness. Especially if you can acquire proc sources that work concurrently. IE if I have 3 tornados out that can proc lucky hit, and am also hitting stormstrike for instance. This stat that seems like it isn't very useful is actually really powerful.
totaly agree, full video long numbers here percentage there, but whats the TL;DR? Lucky Hits good or meh?
I mean, I totally agree its super strong
@@Crazy-Jukebox obviously it is trash and unreliable, as unlike crit chance/crit dmh you can't rly stack it. Heck even overpower with guaranteed hits of it is WAY better than lucky hit would ever be(aside maybe specific single target killing builds).
we can take the sorc passive Snap Freeze as an example with the number in the sheet, and use ice shard as the basis:
ice shard lucky hitt per projectile hitt = 16% and it shoots 5 projectiles
all bonuses from geare and passives maxed out = 108% bonus (under the asumption that the elixir will not be enabled
Snap Freeze gives lucky hitt 9% chance to freeze on hitt
Lets see the chance to get snap freeze to proc 1 time with 1 cast of ice shard (asuming all 5 projectiles hitt)
(0.16*5)*2.08*0.09=0,14976 -> 14,97% chance to proc freeze 1 time with 1 full cast of ice shard or for individual hitt per shard, we divide by 5 and get 2.99%
So each individual projectile from ice shard, now has a 2.99% to instantly freeze, and this is with MAXED investment in to lucky hitt
So unless you go massivly in to lucky hitt, dont expect to rely on lucky hitt in any build what so ever
I don’t even understand what lucky hit even is?
This might help: ua-cam.com/video/rMq1YWZucXA/v-deo.html
Did you factor in LH from polearms passive ? For barb?
huh?
@@DonTheCrown on barb did you factor in the Polearms lucky hit % passive ? In total max lucky hit chance
@@emjaythegreat22 oh polearms, yeah I added that later
Your video looks like it was recorded on a flip phone. Can't see anything. It's very pixelated.
looks fine to me, check your internet or settings
@@DonTheCrown You're right. My default settings for some reason was set to dogshit mode... lol. Thanks!
my brain hurt
Hello there
I'm a lucky hit junkie on my druid :>
xD
Elixir might be a quest reward.
or maybe a tree reward
Maybe an MTX. kekw
3 weeks in. Anyone found cowl of the nameless?
yeah ive seen some people have it
@DonTheCrown I kid not I just found one about 2 hours ago, first one. What are the odds of that.... I've gotten maybe 15 word of Hakan and maybe 20 eyes in the dark.... and finally got this one. Time for some lucky hits shenanigans.
@@Retrocause. some unique items are like that, took forever to find gohrs then found two in an hour
Butchers Cleaver: Lucky Hit: When you Critically Strike an enemy you have up to a 100% chance to Fear and Slow them by [[40 - 75]|%|] for 4 seconds.
Can anyone explain Blizzards broken logic and explain this simple sentence?
3 Different rolls in this one proc? Lucky Hit, but only if you crit, and UP TO 100% chance to do something IF you crit, AND Lucky hit? WTFF?
The reason there's three different rolls involved is it's a very powerful effect and may not have an internal cooldown which means it can proc multiple times in a row. By pressuring you to focus your build on both Lucky Hit and Critical Strikes, they're encouraging game balance so it doesn't just become a total 'Best in Slot' item for every build that wants CC in it. If this didn't have the Critical Strike check, this would absolutely decimate bosses with Lucky Hit builds because of how easily it would cause Stagger states.
here is the math using an example of barbarian using bash.
bash= 50% lucky hitt = 0.5 proc coefficient
lets say we have MAXXED out all our geare with bonus lucky hitt = 93% bonus lucky hitt
we asume a 20% crit chance
Butchers cleaver lucky hitt proc is a 100% on critical strike proc
0.5*(1+0.93)*0.2*1=0,193 -> 19.3% chance per use of the ability bash, to proc the butchers lucky hitt trigger, and that is with MAX geare and investment in to lucky hitt.
If we take an example without ANY investment in to luck hitt with the same crit chance:
0.5*0.2=0.1 -> 10% chance per use of the bash skill to proc the effect
This kind of stuff makes me consider canceling my preorder of Diablo IV. More complex =/= better or more fun. I shouldn't need a spreadsheet and a calculator to play a dungeon crawler.
well I can kinda agree with that; however, this stuff has always been in the game, this is just the first time they're actually making it a stat you can mess around with. So you could just ignore it, except now its a lot easier to see how its working.
@DonTheCrown Add this to the fact that almost all damage increase effects are tiny *and* conditional (+3% damage to stunned enemies, etc) and you've gor a game that is not friendly to new or casual players. Considering casual players make up the vast majority of players, this means less money for Blizzard and, in turn, less ongoing support, expansions, etc for the game. The more I think about it, the less excited I get for Diablo IV.
@@jonsnowight9510 Except casual players won't dig into all the stats they probably won't even have the tooltip on their skills displaying lucky hit chance. Instead they just play the game have fun, kill stuff, find and equip better loot. This is a perfectly fine way to play the game if that's how you enjoy it. But don't ask developers to create dumbed down games. Games can both be complex and simple at the same time.
@purplestone134 Casual players just don't have the time or the desire to play video games for 8-12 hours/day or to spend hours going over spreadsheets in order to maximize their character. That doesn't make them dumb or mean they don't want to understand the game they're playing. Again, more complex =/= better or more fun, it just equals more complex, which is not necessarily a good thing. Not every game needs to be POE, especially if it's intended for a broad audience, which Diablo IV certainly is.
@@jonsnowight9510 yeah I totally agree, the alternative would be having these items have "a chance to proc" with no information about how often, seems more complex but its giving good info