My brother also got drafted that year to the Diamondbacks. The reason Dansby Swanson didn't play for the team was, he was doing live At bats in front of every top person in the organization( owner, big league manager etc.) This Cuban pitcher, I can't remember his name? Threw the ball at Swanson's face when he wasn't even in the box or even paying attention. Messed him up real good and was out of commission for quite some time. If that didn't happen, he might've been traded.
Right now Tucker is probably the best player, which explains some recency bias. You can't forget that Bregman had back to back seasons where he finished 5th and 2nd in MVP voting. The past three years Bregman has been a very good player still and could continue that for the next few years. Tucker might project to be a better player 10 years down the road, but that is not a given. They are definitely both great players, and I don't know that it is 100% that Tucker would be #1.
@@Wilytics Better future is irrelevant. Both are free agents. A great draft pick only gets you 5-6 years of that players career. Bregman has been better.
Josh Naylor only warrants an "eh?" Developed mostly in the Padres farm system, he was a good combination of contact and power. On the cusp of being promoted, he was a key piece traded to Cleveland who is always looking for cheap, young talent and cutting veteran payroll. Naylor became probably a key hitter for multiple years behind only Ramirez practically carrying the team with few other hitters. Having established his reputation, Naylor was just signed to man 1st base for a long time in AZ. That's a lot better than mediocre, I'd rate Naylor's career at least to the high side of "good" so far and he's still got the rest of his career to impress
What a crazy draft for sure, I always remembered B. Rodgers for the Rockies, kid was a stud coming out, was projected to be an all star level Type INF, especially in Coors Field out of all places.
I know a ton of work goes into these videos, great work by the way. I would love to see one where you rank picks vs average WAR by round. It would have to be a shorter draft though. I would understand if that was too much work.
Watching Dansby at Vandy I can’t believe he never turned into a perennial all star. Dude just had it all. Bregman looks better career wise because he cheated, but it never gets mentioned how the post draft incident with Dansby shaped his career. I bet he has never felt the same since the accident, but he will never admit it because he’s not the kind of guy that makes excuses.
In fairness to Walker Buehler, his numbers improved in the 2024 World Series. He went 1-0, pitching six scoreless innings. Don’t forget he pitched a 1-2-3 9th inning of the clinching game on one day’s rest. Let’s see how he does next season in Boston.
As an Astros fan I recall it fondly. Remember wondering why we took the little brother of our middling 1B with the 5th pick. Preston’s kid brother better be a lot better than he is, I thought.
Austin Riley not being elite is criminal. He’s been a top three third baseman in baseball for years. Probably would have been taken 2nd overall in retrospect
I think you should change the rating system to be more generous for later picks. A 15 WAR pick in the 5th round is an elite find, not merely solid, for instance. As an aside, the Mets drafted Shane McClanahan with pick #779, but he did not sign.
He has a chance to be but Bregman has accomplished more at this point though. But it seems if Tucker keeps it up he will surpass him but its just been a couple of years. He has to really start being a force in the league to move forward.
@@TheEWFX29 You're right. I just think Tucker is on the cusp of greatness. He was on a phenomenal pace last year, then he cracked his shin and the Astros' management lied about it for months. When he finally came back, he was really good, the shin issue did limit his steals though. Hopefully, he has fully healed after this off season. I'm keeping Tucker in Keeper leagues.
@@notsosilentmajority1 He has been amazing the last couple of years, top of the league good. If he keeps it up he will be among the top level of stars in MLB.
@@TheEWFX29 Absolutely. He was having an amazing season last year and then he had that fluke injury that derailed everything. I was glad to see him come back at the end of the season. I don't love Wrigley Field, or the Cubs, but he should have a great "contract year". Hopefully, he'll end up on a contender and in a ballpark that suits him well. He would probably be perfect for Yankee Stadium with its short right field.
Bregman has looked like an old man since his jr year at LSU. Something about his height and running style. The fact that hamstring injuries got the Astros to tell him not to go all out down the line on grounders probably also a factor.
He is a solid hitter, but defensively he doesn’t help his case. I only did the classifications objectively using WAR, everyone has their own perceptions
@@Wilytics Maybe earlier in his career when he played 3B and OF. Since moving to 1B he's been pretty much rock solid defensively. This is where relying only on stats fail.
But Mountcastle hasn't done much. He is probably between meh and solid. He definitely isnt someone you build anything around. He is a modern player does one thing ok and sticks around but really isnt a major force in any way.
Kinda critical ratings here considering how many of these guys contributed to their team when a lot of prospects don’t even stick on a roster for a full season
Do you add up the total war of all players draft to see how it compares to that of other years totals or average war? It seems that 2015 draft was a stinker.
Subscribed to your channel right after watching a few of your great videos😊 I have a question about your analysis as to Crochet. His barrel% is high(pr 21) hard hit% sits around average. Are these a red flag to you? As a Red Sox fan I’m quite worried bcz of Fenway park
Since these players were drafted in the first round they are all pretty good for the level they are playing at. Often the best infielder plays short, which is usually the first round picks. Once they get into the pros though, their defense is worse relative to the talent there so they usually move off to a position of lesser importance.
Most of these were on the mark, but that Eh grade for Naylor is a bit off. He deserves at least a solid IMO. I'd also put Tucker in the Elite category. Appreciate the time and research you put into this video. Just disagree with that one.
Using WAR as your only gauge of success is pretty bad lol. Tucker isn’t elite? Terrible take. Best player by far in this draft. 3-4 years behind Bregman, and already better. Also, Naylor just “eh” is almost as bad. Gotta have a little more analysis than just one number. What’s their recent numbers? Do they have solid tools outside of just hitting? What kind of package did these teams get from trading them even if the player may not have been great? So much more than just WAR.
Meh. More elite? Is either elite? Both are/were good to really good ...but elite ? Idk about that. Judge, ohtani, harper, Betts, Witt, soto and a few others are elite.
Bregman was the 2019 MVP. There was a group of writers who admitted to voting for Trout because they thought it was “unfair” that he’d only won 1 mvp award. Anyone who watched that season knows that he was not just better but more valuable. As Dave Dombrowski, “Every player wants Mike Trout’s stats. Every GM wants Alex Bregman on his team.” Kyle could eventually be better. And based on Soto’s contract, Tucker could sign almost any deal and be a better value. If not for injuries, and I know that’s a real consideration, you’ve got to play, Tucker is the better player. Just look at the train wreck that Soto was in the field last year for NY.
My brother also got drafted that year to the Diamondbacks. The reason Dansby Swanson didn't play for the team was, he was doing live At bats in front of every top person in the organization( owner, big league manager etc.) This Cuban pitcher, I can't remember his name? Threw the ball at Swanson's face when he wasn't even in the box or even paying attention.
Messed him up real good and was out of commission for quite some time. If that didn't happen, he might've been traded.
What’s your brothers name
@@Ochoa685Fake Player
Cuban pitcher= Yoan Lopez
Stop lying
Minor quibble: Jeffrey Springs was drafted by the Rangers, not the Rays. The Rays were just where he found major league success.
Probably shouldn’t base this off war. Tucker would have 100% been the number 1 overall pick in a redraft
Right now Tucker is probably the best player, which explains some recency bias. You can't forget that Bregman had back to back seasons where he finished 5th and 2nd in MVP voting. The past three years Bregman has been a very good player still and could continue that for the next few years. Tucker might project to be a better player 10 years down the road, but that is not a given. They are definitely both great players, and I don't know that it is 100% that Tucker would be #1.
@@Wilytics Better future is irrelevant. Both are free agents. A great draft pick only gets you 5-6 years of that players career. Bregman has been better.
Tucker has significantly better career numbers in his slash line, more speed, and more power. How is Bregman better?@@olliverklozov2789
Bregman was great for awhile. Tucker is getting great now. For the 6 years of the rookie contract it’s likely Breggy was better.
Josh Naylor only warrants an "eh?"
Developed mostly in the Padres farm system, he was a good combination of contact and power. On the cusp of being promoted, he was a key piece traded to Cleveland who is always looking for cheap, young talent and cutting veteran payroll. Naylor became probably a key hitter for multiple years behind only Ramirez practically carrying the team with few other hitters.
Having established his reputation, Naylor was just signed to man 1st base for a long time in AZ.
That's a lot better than mediocre, I'd rate Naylor's career at least to the high side of "good" so far and he's still got the rest of his career to impress
What a crazy draft for sure, I always remembered B. Rodgers for the Rockies, kid was a stud coming out, was projected to be an all star level Type INF, especially in Coors Field out of all places.
I know a ton of work goes into these videos, great work by the way. I would love to see one where you rank picks vs average WAR by round. It would have to be a shorter draft though. I would understand if that was too much work.
Shelby Miller also had 17 losses in 2015. As a Braves fan, I remember going into games with Shelby on the mound, knowing that we were going to lose.
One of the weirder seasons from a pitcher. He has good numbers aside from losses.
Not even sure how, he was awesome that year lol
Watching Dansby at Vandy I can’t believe he never turned into a perennial all star. Dude just had it all. Bregman looks better career wise because he cheated, but it never gets mentioned how the post draft incident with Dansby shaped his career. I bet he has never felt the same since the accident, but he will never admit it because he’s not the kind of guy that makes excuses.
In fairness to Walker Buehler, his numbers improved in the 2024 World Series. He went 1-0, pitching six scoreless innings. Don’t forget he pitched a 1-2-3 9th inning of the clinching game on one day’s rest. Let’s see how he does next season in Boston.
Even tho a lot of these players didnt pan out in the bigs, so many of these players even making it makes this draft a rarity
not to mention that naylor just got traded to the dbacks
14:26 OOF! My guy, the warning track exists for a reason!
Going into this video I couldn't remember anything about this draft and wow I see why
Definitely a tough one for a lot of teams
@@Wilytics my Tigers only drafting Beau Burrows 🙃
As an Astros fan I recall it fondly. Remember wondering why we took the little brother of our middling 1B with the 5th pick. Preston’s kid brother better be a lot better than he is, I thought.
If you make it to the MLB Show, i think its a good pick. The odds are so low to even make it. This isnt the NFL.
Austin Riley not being elite is criminal. He’s been a top three third baseman in baseball for years. Probably would have been taken 2nd overall in retrospect
Riley is off and on. He isnt close to elite. A lot of press when he hasn't really done anything great outside of one big year.
Ryan Mountcastle would be in the elite tier if he only played the blue jays lol
I think you should change the rating system to be more generous for later picks. A 15 WAR pick in the 5th round is an elite find, not merely solid, for instance.
As an aside, the Mets drafted Shane McClanahan with pick #779, but he did not sign.
Kyle Tucker is the best pick of this draft but there were a couple of other nice picks.
He has a chance to be but Bregman has accomplished more at this point though. But it seems if Tucker keeps it up he will surpass him but its just been a couple of years. He has to really start being a force in the league to move forward.
@@TheEWFX29
You're right. I just think Tucker is on the cusp of greatness. He was on a phenomenal pace last year, then he cracked his shin and the Astros' management lied about it for months.
When he finally came back, he was really good, the shin issue did limit his steals though. Hopefully, he has fully healed after this off season. I'm keeping Tucker in Keeper leagues.
@@notsosilentmajority1 He has been amazing the last couple of years, top of the league good. If he keeps it up he will be among the top level of stars in MLB.
@@TheEWFX29
Absolutely. He was having an amazing season last year and then he had that fluke injury that derailed everything. I was glad to see him come back at the end of the season.
I don't love Wrigley Field, or the Cubs, but he should have a great "contract year". Hopefully, he'll end up on a contender and in a ballpark that suits him well. He would probably be perfect for Yankee Stadium with its short right field.
@@notsosilentmajority1 Yes that's what I fear, he goes to the Yankees as a Red Sox fan.
Odd... why do I see Bregman as old and Tucker as young still??
Tucker was drafted out of high school and got going later
Tucker is still ascending where as Bregman is declining
Bregman has looked like an old man since his jr year at LSU. Something about his height and running style. The fact that hamstring injuries got the Astros to tell him not to go all out down the line on grounders probably also a factor.
I really thought that Brendan Rodgers was going to mash in the Show. The only tool he didnt have as a hitter was a good eye.
He did win a GG tho.
three met legends in phill bickford, dj stewart and nick plummer
As an O's fan, classifying Ryan Mountcastle as "MEH" is insulting. 😂😂Definitely a "Solid" but not great player.
He is a solid hitter, but defensively he doesn’t help his case. I only did the classifications objectively using WAR, everyone has their own perceptions
@@Wilytics Maybe earlier in his career when he played 3B and OF. Since moving to 1B he's been pretty much rock solid defensively. This is where relying only on stats fail.
But Mountcastle hasn't done much. He is probably between meh and solid. He definitely isnt someone you build anything around. He is a modern player does one thing ok and sticks around but really isnt a major force in any way.
Kinda critical ratings here considering how many of these guys contributed to their team when a lot of prospects don’t even stick on a roster for a full season
Do you add up the total war of all players draft to see how it compares to that of other years totals or average war? It seems that 2015 draft was a stinker.
Please do more draft videos
Naylor might get better still for the next 3 or 4 years
Subscribed to your channel right after watching a few of your great videos😊 I have a question about your analysis as to Crochet. His barrel% is high(pr 21) hard hit% sits around average. Are these a red flag to you? As a Red Sox fan I’m quite worried bcz of Fenway park
Josh naylor not in the great or at least good category is crazy
What is with the shortstops?
Since these players were drafted in the first round they are all pretty good for the level they are playing at. Often the best infielder plays short, which is usually the first round picks. Once they get into the pros though, their defense is worse relative to the talent there so they usually move off to a position of lesser importance.
@Wilytics thanks
how could you say Brendan Rodgers has been a below average hitter when he has better career stats then swanson?
Most of these were on the mark, but that Eh grade for Naylor is a bit off. He deserves at least a solid IMO. I'd also put Tucker in the Elite category. Appreciate the time and research you put into this video. Just disagree with that one.
He based his rankings on accumulated war thus far. Not so much what a player looks like today or will look in the future.
why spend any time on drafting so many flops
save your money and buy / trade for players after someone else trys them out
Using WAR as your only gauge of success is pretty bad lol. Tucker isn’t elite? Terrible take. Best player by far in this draft. 3-4 years behind Bregman, and already better. Also, Naylor just “eh” is almost as bad. Gotta have a little more analysis than just one number. What’s their recent numbers? Do they have solid tools outside of just hitting? What kind of package did these teams get from trading them even if the player may not have been great? So much more than just WAR.
Kyle Tucker is more elite than Alex bregman
Meh. More elite? Is either elite? Both are/were good to really good ...but elite ? Idk about that. Judge, ohtani, harper, Betts, Witt, soto and a few others are elite.
Plus Tucker was not a cheater like Bregman.
Bregman was the 2019 MVP. There was a group of writers who admitted to voting for Trout because they thought it was “unfair” that he’d only won 1 mvp award. Anyone who watched that season knows that he was not just better but more valuable. As Dave Dombrowski, “Every player wants Mike Trout’s stats. Every GM wants Alex Bregman on his team.”
Kyle could eventually be better. And based on Soto’s contract, Tucker could sign almost any deal and be a better value. If not for injuries, and I know that’s a real consideration, you’ve got to play, Tucker is the better player. Just look at the train wreck that Soto was in the field last year for NY.
Current Tucker and prime Bergman should both definitely be considered elite. Especially tucker
Don't forget Tucker and Bregman cheated! :) That lowers their draft value.
Why are you basing this off of WAR? I thought you were an analytics driven person.WAR is faulty and not a good defenetive statistic.
It is not 100% perfect, but it is the best all-encompassing value metric that exists
Insane draft? Ehhh