2024 MLB Season Expectations with Special Guest, Ned Colletti
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- Опубліковано 28 лют 2024
- Former Los Angeles Dodgers GM and San Francisco Giants Assistant GM, Ned Colletti joins the show to discuss the 2024 MLB season expectations. Like and Subscribe!
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That would be my first question to Farhan, too!
Larry’s Giants’ takes are hilarious! We need more Salty Balty Larry! When Willard goes negative, you know the team is mediocre! lol. T shirts coming
RIP Salty
Jung-Hoo Lee actually cost the Giants a lot more than $113M. Only $113M effects the luxury tax number because that's the amount Lee recieves from the Giants. The thing is the Giants also had to pay a "posting fee" to Lee's Korean team to acquire him. That fee was over $18M. I think it came out to $18.825M. That's on top of the $113M Lee gets so the Giants actually paid $131.825M to get Lee. Cody Bellinger didn't have a posting fee and he only cost $80M. Farhan literally spent $51.825M more than Bellinger cost just to get Jung-Hoo Lee. I like Lee and I hope he is great but I would much rather have Bellinger personally. I'd especially much rather have Bellinger and over $50M in my pocket. Not Farhan though. He thinks Lee is more valuable than Bellinger and over $50M combined. Isn't that crazy? He literally paid over $50M more than what Bellinger cost just to get Lee. Why not just get Bellinger? At that price it would be like getting Jordan Hicks or Jorge Soler for *free* . How does Farhan actually believe Jung-Hoo Lee is worth millions of dollars more than Cody Bellinger and Jorge Soler *combined* ? Or worth millions more than Cody Bellinger and Jordan Hicks *combined* ? That's just insane IMO. He probably would have had to pay Bellinger more than $80M to pry him away from the Cubs but I'm certain $100M would've gotten it done. He didn't have to go out and *spend* over $131M on Jung-Hoo Lee when je could've gotten Bellinger and Soler combined for less than that.
The Lee posting fee was the main thing I wanted to point out about that contract though. Lee only gets $113M but the *Giants* actually paid over $130M to get him because Lee had an additional posting fee that was over $18M and is not included in their team salary numbers. That only matters to teams who break the luxury tax which we all know the Giants won't do so they could've spent that posting fee money on other free agents instead. Bellinger didn't have a posting fee at all and only cost $80M total. Once you consider the posting fee the Giants had to pay Lee's former team in Korea the Giants actually paid over $130M to get him. Not $113M.
Lee is also 25 and signed for 4/6 years, Bellinger is 28 and the contract he signed with Chicago is literally a one year deal if he plays well, or two if he sucks like he did in three of his past four years. Not to mention signing Bellinger would've costed the Giants a draft pick and potentially international draft pool money, you just don't do that for a one year deal, there's a reason nobody got closer to sign Bellinger and he went back to Chicago like everyone expected, you would've to either give him the multi year deal around 200/250 million that Boras wanted, or you had to do a short term deal with higher aav and opt outs like the Cubs did, and again, that always made sense for the Cubs cause they were the only team which could sign Bellinger without losing assets. You're also pointing too much enfasis on total money of the contracts, that doesn't really matter, the annual average is what impacts how many players the Giants can get, just to make a realistic example, the Giants right now are about 23/25 million under the tax line so, on paper they have the room to sign one guy like Chapman/Snell/Monty, if they would've signed Bellinger instead of Lee they wouldn't, cause Bellinger would've put them already just 10/12 under the tax line.
@@Rory2403 The opt-outs would only make the contract cheaper though. If Bellinger opts out after year two than Bellinger only cost $60M compared to Lee's cost of over $130M. If Bellinger opts out after year 1 than Bellinger only cost $30M compared to Lee's $130+M. We are talking about money here and if Bellinger actually opts out it just looks even worse by comparison. I get your point because I generally don't like opt-outs but that doesn't excuse spending $50-100M more than Bellinger costs to get Lee. The main reason is the caliber of the player. It's very unlikely Lee ever has a season as good as Bellinger did last season during his whole career. The guy played in Korea not Japan. Korea is Double-A baseball at best. Lee is likely to regress now that he has to try to hit against the best pitchers in the world as opposed to pitchers who are in a league that isn't even 2nd best. And it's not like against those Double-A pitchers Lee was putting up monster numbers or anything. They were okay numbers I guess but nothing special and they are likely to get worse. As far as the *luxury tax* goes teams pass it all the time. The Giants did *not* spend over $50M to avoid being a first time payer of the very first level of the luxury tax. That would be a terrible way to run a team. There are 4 levels of the luxury tax and some teams surpass the 4th level multiple years in a row and pay massive penalties. You can't truly believe that the Giants were willing to spend an extra $50M and get Lee over Bellinger just to avoid potentially becoming a first time payer of the first level of the luxury tax, can you? Those penalties are meaningless. Even surpassing the first level of the luxury tax only costs a few extra million bucks. Certainly not $50M. Only teams who regularly pass the 3rd and 4th levels of the tax worry about that stuff. The Giants aren't breaking the luxury tax because just like most teams they just don't want to spend that much money on their roster. Not because they are afraid of 1 time passing the very first level of the luxury tax. It's their own wallet that sets their payroll limits. Not the tax. The thing is that $18+M posting fee came out of their own wallet which means that's $18M they were willing to spend on roster construction to pay Lee's posting fee could've been used to sign other players. So the posting fee matters and *especially* for the Giants. No matter what way you slice it the Giants spent over $130M to acquire Lee when they could have acquired Cody Bellinger for far less total money and that is a terrible financial roster decision by Farhan. Bellinger projected value: $225M. Bellinger actual cost: $80M. Including posting fee Lee projected value: Less than $60M. Including posting fee Giants paid Lee: $131.825M. That's a terrible decision by Farhan no matter how you look at it.
@@matthew01234 the thing is that the amount of the contract doesn't matter for how the Giants ownership operates, that's why they don't care about the posting fee of Lee, just like they didn't care about paying La Stella after they cut his 12m salary, or paying a buyout to Longoria, paying a portion of Stripling salary to the A's, throwing cash at every dfa'd player... that's not the problem, you have to look the annual average salaries on the team and the tax threshold, that's why if you sign Bellinger at 30 million dollars instead of Lee for 18 this year, you won't have money for another big player now. It doesn't matter if other teams pass various tax thresholds, the reality we are living in is the one that Greg Johnson literally told you, which is they won't do it unless it's for like one year and for a guy like Ohtani/Judge so, that's what we're talking about, it's pointless to argue about an alternative reality and say "they should/they could" cause it doesn't matter, cause they won't period. As for Bellinger we can agree or disagree on his value and if it's worth to lose picks and international pool money for one year of him, clearly every team in the league thought it wasn't worth it, but that's a totally different argument obviously.
Bellinger in center and Hoskins at first plus Soler I thought was good. Lee could be good or bad. It’s a reach
@@Rory2403 So basically you are proving my point. Any owner who would rather pay an extra $50M straight up to avoid paying $4M in luxury tax is a complete idiot. No wonder he has allowed a self-entitled wannabe nerd like Farhan run his team for so long. Look how far it's gotten him since he fires the GM who won him 3 World Championships in 5 years.
Bauer could help the Giants and 29 other teams.
He’s a non risk player wise. Min, low risk and can release. Just what do people want ? He served his time and give him short leash