I am from Georgia, which Putin invaded in 2008.08, and I absolutely agree with Mr. Kotkin that he paid almost no political price and there were no sanctions against the Kremlin for this daring move, which was the first in his chess game, that he is still playing, but this time in Ukraine. Putin then did not achieve his goal in Georgia because he wanted to replace the incumbent President Saakashvili, who was a pro-Western politician, but he occupied 20% of Georgia and that was enough to put pressure on the Georgian government to replace him in the 2012 elections with the so-called “prison scandal”, which pushed people to vote against the current government and therefore place his own oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who soon took all power in parliament and step by step began to blame the West which he personally calls the “Global War Party" for interfering brazenly in Georgian politics. A years after it and a few days ago, the Georgian parliament approved the so-called “Russian law”, despite the recommendations of the US Department and senior EU diplomats not to do so, otherwise Georgia could lose all chances of becoming a member of the EU and NATO. In short, Ivanishvili is now changing Georgia’s western vector and pushing this country towards Russia, but has not yet clearly stated this. I believe he will do this after winning the elections in October 2024 (completely rigging them). As I mentioned, Putin didn't pay a serious price for invading Georgia, then he went to Syria, and then he made his next chess move to Ukraine in 2014, and then he invaded in 2022, and here we are now talking about World War III! Could this have been avoided if Putin had to pay a serious price for invading Georgia in 2008? I believe that yes, since I know the Russians well, they only understand strength, otherwise they accept it as the weakness of the West (by the way, China too) and continue to move forward, and only forward, becoming more and more daire. I also believe that if it weren't for Putin with his successful hibrid war tactics plan, China might not be as aggressive as it is now, and therefore it would probably be possible to maintain peace and especially avoid war and massacres in Ukraine.
The one weakness in Prof. Kotkin's otherwise very sound and sensible analysis is that the idea of trying to coexist with Russia as an illiberal state so long as they don't invade their neighbors is that it's been tried and failed. Germany's entire foreign policy with respect to Russia was based on the very notion that increased economic integration with Russia would make a serious invasion like the one Russia embarked on in Ukraine in February of 2022 unthinkable. It was this idea that economic pragmatism would, at the end of the day, temper a desire for re-establishing the old Russian empire that had so many assuming Russia's build up of forces on Ukraine's border could only be an attempt at international intimidation for the purpose of strengthening Russia's diplomatic bargaining position. Unfortunately Russia acted on a belief that the dependence on Russian gas and oil would make it impossible for Europe to seriously resist Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the rest is history. Prof. Kotkin has stated that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has no apparent option but to keep doubling down (partly due to his individual nature and partly due to the politics of needing something to show for the tremendous price Russia has now paid for the invasion. Still, Putin's ruthlessness in jailing or murdering internal opposition figures makes the notion of influencing or empowering opposition or even encouraging some kind of coup sound too much like wishful thinking.
The whole idea of the EU is based on the notion that European countries will stop fighting for territories in exchange for stability and economic growth, through deeper cooperation and giving up nationalistic ideologies. This worked in EU so far, but if we look back we can see that the stability (absence of a major war) existed for less than a century, if we consider Yugoslavia wars - even less. For centuries prior European map was changed due to wars. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine shook not only the future of Russia, but the future of Europe as well. There is no guarantee that there will not come another dictator within Europe, who will challenge the system created after WWII favoring national pride for better living conditions. Similarly US is using its economic resources as a weapon against Russia. US has been the economic leader of the world for less than a century. We cannot take it for granted that it will continue for the foreseeable future.
@@alex_smallet You make some interesting points. The EU is essentially a post-imperial project for all those countries (with the exception of the UK) which had lost their empires, more or less, by the end of the Second World War. They coalesced precisely in order to prevent another attempt to forge a land empire out of the territory of Europe, having undergone the perils of the Third Reich and the catastrophe of what outsiders might well see as a European civil war. The EU is clearly also an economic project and has been so successful that it is unrealistic to suppose that any "dictator" will arise within Europe who would risk the immeasurable economic catastrophe that is war as has Putin. EU living conditions, in the main, are amongst the very highest in the world. The trouble for Europe is that dictators like Putin see how successful the EU has become and wish to prevent the likes of Ukraine wherever possible from ever enjoying such high standards of living so close to the Russian border. The US is hardly lifting a finger to restrain Russia, but a finger is all that is needed. Russia's GDP is 30 times smaller than the total GDP of those countries supporting Ukraine. That said, the US does not wish to see the disintegration of the Russian Federation for fear of handing the territories of Russia on a plate to the Chinese. This is, as things stand, a possible outcome, that at the very least Russia will become a satellite of the PRC, plundered for its vast natural resources. China should nevertheless hesitate before it tries to take over what is an economic basket case, a country with neither "western" nor "oriental" values, which has already swallowed up 80% of China's total belt and road initiative loan investments with very little to show for it and little prospect of ever being repaid . There is no reason to suppose that the US will cede its overwhelming economic dominance any time in the foreseeable future. It does not depend on trade and has two seas as its eastern and western borders, along with by far the most powerful navy in the world. Russia's navy, by comparison is absolutely pitiful.
If the Russians had as tactically skillful an army Germany had in both world wars I'd be more concerned over the future coexistence of the EU and Russia. Fortunately for all parties involved Russia is still as bad a fighting force as it's always been throughout most of it's history so I don't see much of challenge here for Europe to contain so long as it maintains the technical militay superiority it has over Russia with the US at it's side.
What Stephen Kotkin says makes perfect sense at every level. You do not make the mistake of engaging on terms that are based on falsehood. The fight is about; the will to fight, the capacity to fight, and the protection of sovereignty.
At almost every level. The one place where I would take issue with him is in the "if" of the following quote: "....so if you can't get them [the Russians] out...." We CAN and SHOULD get them out. We have the capacity to do so. We just lack the will.
@@dwl3006 please learn something beyond US and Russian narratives of their own power. They don't encompass any understanding of the agency of smaller nations. If you think Ukraine is a proxy then you misunderstand a whole aspect of history and agency. If you don't understand the historical under-pinnings or trust the former head of the FSB's version of history as he gives his 30 minutes history lesson to Tucker Carlson then you are deluding yourself into knowing nothing but Kremlin narratives and Washington narratives. The world is a big space and understanding it isn't easy but definitely try by looking at what is suppressed: the real history of Ukraine and why Russia is so keen on denying its existence is a quandary. Why does Putin care so much about history? There are answers but they are not easy to find. Even many Ukrainians don't understand their own history and various Ukrainian historians assume it's clear so don't help lay it out. But this denial of a Ukraine started the moment Ivan the Terrible changed the name of Muscovy to Russia. Since then it has been a deadly effort of most of the rulers of the Kremlin to suppress and deny Ukrainian heritage. NATO enlargement isn't more than a talking point for English-speaking ears preying on Western guilt at our own coalition of power.
It took me the Ukraine conflict to realize that there is a pretty big neocon problem with history scholars in the United States, Kotkin and Snyder are some of the most dangerous specimens out there and I find it scary that they have some relative prestige.
You hit the nail on the head. Makes me wonder how infested academia is in other fields with incompetent and vulgar scholars besides the one under the current spotlight.
Kotkin's advice on Ukraine is to go back to 2014 and playing on Russian weaknesses. What weaknesses? Any international doors are already closed without deterring Russia. Despite being an international pariah and sanctions internally and economically Russia better than ever. Russia is NEVER going to sign any treaty or ceasefire that allows NATO membership for Ukraine.
Who said an armistice had to include nato membership??? All Ukraine needs is some sort of security guarantor like from India, or China, or the US, or Indonesia or some coalition etc., so that if Russia invaded Ukraine again they wouldn't be alone and had military support to protect their borders/sovereignty/land.
@@CollectiveDefence and where are writing from how’s the inflation in your country? Or are you one of the lucky ones who stores their wealth at Caiman Islands.
@@cmonman6609Inflation in America is not an explanation of Russian strength. Putin’s war accomplishments thus far: Unifying NATO. A resurgent defense industry in the western world. 2 new NATO members. Europe weaning itself from Russian energy. A massive and ongoing Russian brain drain. An end to normal economic, political and technological ties to the wealthiest nations. Hundreds of thousands of dead or maimed soldiers and “the comedian “ is still in charge. Russia now has a neighbor with 40 million people who will spit when they hear the word “Russian”. Well done Vladimir. Be strong!
@@JohnDorian-j7x India and China are Russia's allies. Any other security guarantee that might be kept would have the same problem as NATO membership: Russia wouldn't find it acceptable.
Kotkin's Magnetic Mountain is probably the best book ever written on life under Stalin's regime - strongly recommended - from a Professor of Soviet era Politics
You don't determine anything. Step out of line and your local cafe is trying to feed you Chernobyl Sandwiches. That's on top of the fact that you're engaged in armed robbery in Ukraine on a sorry-ass fraudulent victim narrative.
And Ukrainians demand to do so for their nation. so do Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Fins, romanians or Moldovans. They refuse to have their destiny shaped by Russia. They refuse to be part of anything Russian, they refuse any submission or subordination to Russia. Russia has been scourge for national self-determination and freedom here for 1000 years, and given its behaviour it will be enemy of all here for another 1000. do you agree they have equal right to refuse Russian opinion on government, laws and even language spoken?
"We are going to allow Russia to..."? Prof Kotkin seems to be stuck in Stalin era Russia. This US hegemony view is echoed in WSJ and Washington DC to their own detriment. This blind spot is a severe Achilles heel for the US.
@@artistforfreedom If you actually knew anything about Putin or Russia you’d know that Putin disagrees with Stalin on SOOOO many issues, that it makes your comment laughable… But I assume you get your media from western propagandists, so it is not shocking you’re so off-base.
@@crabluva I’ll tell you just like I told the entity above… If you actually knew anything about Putin or Russia you’d know that Putin disagrees with Stalin on SOOOO many issues, that it makes your comment laughable… But I assume you get your media from western propagandists, so it is not shocking you’re so off-base.
Diplomacy is not about leverage. Blackmail is about leverage. Diplomacy is the art and practice of building and maintaining relationships and conducting negotiations with people using tact and mutual respect. The US government prefers blackmail and generally doesn't understand what diplomacy is.
He basically said US diplomacy is about threats, which we know to be true, when you look at Europe's enthusiastic willingness to destroy their own economies to advance US hegemony by their insane level of russophobia.They should be looking to make peace with Russia
@@claudinefiona9698 Yep. It's only beneficial for Europe and Russia to be friends and to collaborate. But it's not beneficial for the US! So what will happen? Europe and Russia will be trying to kill each other for the benefit of the US... Hello Europeans, is anybody at home???? What are you doing, for God's sake?!
Kotkin is a real pleasure to listen to due to his easy grasp of political realities and his lucid explanation of these to the public. He is a master of 'nuance', perceiving what most cannot imagine as acceptable outcomes in relation to the war in Ukraine, yet which may well be the outcome we reach in 2024/5 or 6. In my view the sooner the better due to the preciousness of human lives. If the door is left open for Ukraine to regain its territory in the future, when winds change inside Russia, perhaps they will accept and peace comes.
Professor Kotkin’s analysis neglects the potential danger of U.S. federal debt. By 2034, the gross federal debt of the U.S. is projected to be about $54.39 trillion U.S. dollars(an increase of $23 trillion U.S. dollars from 2023). We are increasing our national debt at a quick pace, about $1 trillion dollars - every 100 days. Interest on our national debt has to be paid back. By 2028, our debt will reach a historic high of 106 percent of GDP and 200 percent by 2050, if debt left unaddressed. U.S.spending on Defense is more than the next 10 countries combined ($849 Billion dollars). Over the last 20 years as the U.S. fought the “war on terror” as American taxpayers spent an estimated $6 Trillion dollars-invading, bombing and occupying (and losing) wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The U.S.and its allies list 30,000 soldiers in Iraq; in addition to the 30,000 American veterans who committed suicide..and there are over 60,000 homeless vets…living on the streets. Americans are tired of fighting foreign crusades, military interventions which vastly enhance the wealth of the military industrial complex; while 44 percent of U.S. workers earn jobs paying $18,000 or less per/year (2019)…while only three American multi-billionaires have more combined wealth than half the American population. Come home America; put our own house in order first; before “slaying dragons overseas” in useless military adventures overseas.
When someone who's held up as America's top historian on Russia either wittingly or unwittingly distorts or goes along with distortions of the historical record, and also displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the realities on the ground in Russia, it's little wonder why we've ended up in the situation we have in Ukrainе...
@@tankergas7950 listen to the The Duran, Judge Nopalitano, The new atlas, Colonel Danny Davis, Dialogue Works, to name a few, all on YT. You will have a lifetime of examples
@@tommorgan1291 Putin is not a popular politician in the way you may think. People who cite Putin's approval rating usually come from countries with a healthy democracy, and this makes them confused about Russia. Putin having an 80-90% approval rating isn't like a politician having 80-90% approval rating in a western country. In a western country, a high approval rating means that citizens look at a politician's policies and vision for the country, and they support those policies rather than a different set of policies or vision. Putin's approval rating doesn't mean that 80-90% of Russians look at Putin, and say "out of the alternatives, I like Vladimir Putin's vision for my country, and I approve of his work". This makes no sense in Russia because... there are no alternatives to Putin. And the media, which is overwhelmingly controlled by the Kremlin, does a lot of work to prevent Russians from believing in their own agency. This process is called "depoliticization", and people in the West have a difficult time understanding it. The result is the belief that the Russian government, the Russian state itself, is Putin. And that Putin is the Russian state. This would make no sense to an American (for example), who recognizes and experiences a practical and legal difference between the office of the President, and the person who occupies it. No such difference exists for Russians... Putin has been in power for over 20 years, and he exercises direct or indirect control over the entirety of the state. So a person who understands none of this may say that Putin is in power because he has a 90% approval rating. This is what the original commenter appears to think. But they don't realize they have it backward. The truth is that Putin has a 90% approval rating... because he is (and has been for 20 years) in power. This sort of support is _extremely_ shallow, and this shallowness was on display (for example) during Prigozhin's short-lived rebellion.
Main, mistake of the West. It's not enough supporting Ukraine in other country around Russia. Economically politically socially it will be much easier because this country goes through hell with Russia before.
3:03 😂😂😂 that was awesome, one of my favorite expressions is "power is when you have it they don't know that you have it and you don't use it" from a Romanian author, to hear it in his speech was a great pleasure, when understanding meets understanding.
Armistices? 😂 with what American weapons can the US enforce it? America cant produce them fast enough! Why doesnt Kotkin debate John Mearsheimer? Because he would pick apart his arguments
@@JohnDorian-j7x you have no source that Mearsheimer refuses to debate !!! Moreover , Mearsheimer goes on shows like Piers Morgan who has a polar opposite view from his. Also, he has debated others with different views. Meanwhile Kotkin only does interviews with ‘Friendly’ interviewers like Lex Fridman and WSJ.
@@JohnDorian-j7xRussia didn't "invade" Ukraine - Ukraine is part of Russia. The US doesn't "support" Ukraine - the US uses Ukraine as a prop to hurt Russia, and the US doesn't feel sorry for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian people who have lost their lives, their limbs, their families and livelihoods in order for the States to prolong the agony of the American empire.
@@JohnDorian-j7x i simply ask you for a “source” and you say im “mad about US support of Ukraine “? US support of Ukraine and Gaza is isolating the US on the global stage. Simply look at UN votes. Only the United States, Israel and a handful of tiny US puppet countries voted with the US. These two conflicts will lead to the USD losing world currency reserve status in about 2 years. If the US loses this enormous privilege of currency reserve status, America will also lose its ability to fund military bases around the world. Hence lose its ability to project power. And over what? Gaza and Ukraine? Meanwhile the rise of China continues. The US foreign policy has been a disaster since the Clintons came to power. Its policy driven by corruption instead of purpose.
Kotkin is a gift. His analysis is incisive, and based on intense study of the things about which he speaks. Would that the State Department could be led by such a man.
Do you really want nationalists like Dugin in power? And do you really think they would accept a Ucraine in Nato on their most vulnerable southern boarder? With people like Dugin, Russia would be a much greater thread for the west imo.
Two major failings on the part of the US foreign policy/intel community have created the situation we have with Russia today. First, when the Soviet Union dissolved the intel community saw its raison d'etre going away. To continue to thrive as a bureaucratic entity it could not let the US take a friendly attitude toward the emerging Russia so they continued to make it their bogeyman and the morons in the FS allowed themselves to be led by the nose into a reflexive anti-Russia stance. This has been the status quo ever since and led to the encroachment of NATO right up to Russia's borders, laying the groundwork for the Ukraine war.. Secondly, after the the 2016 election the apparatus feared Trump might make nice with Russia so they created the Russia Collusion Hoax which had the triple purpose of perpetuating the story of Russian malfeasance while at the same time both tying Trump's hands regarding any possibility of a rapprochement and damaging his Presidency in general. The US intelligence community is a malignant entity that will bring down the nation eventually if it is not ripped out root and branch.
The arrogance coming out of American foreign policies and those who help to fashion and implement them out is beyond disbelief. No wonder the rest of the world outside the Western(18%) spheres are challenging it. Even some Western countries(Slovakia, Hungary) have started charting a course outside the American lead.
Просто омерзительно то, что они говорят. Вы ошибаетесь, в России всё хорошо, всем плевать на ваши санкции, они только разжигают ненависть к вам, но никак не отражаются на нашей жизни
Hahaha “we need russian nationalists who are pro-russia but think that the war is damaging russia” - russia has to be damaged before someone thinks it is damaged.
Agreed. My favorite intellectual for all things Russia. Like, every time. He reminds me a LOT of my Czarist Russia professor from university who also worked with the US State Department. Who knows, they may know each other.
US diplomats couldn’t negotiate their way out of a paper bag. This freak is a court historian-stuck in the most outdated and asinine paradigms imaginable. These people got their a$$es kicked in the geopolitical game.
Unfortunately Prof Kotkin, who used to have a balanced and ironic view of power, has turned more and more into a lobbiest for US hegemony since he joined Hoover. He used to be more of a real academic, now he has joined the punditry circles. I don’t agree with „covert and open“ initiatives to regime change. People of all nations deserve to make their own decisions and the undercurrents of chaos these policies create are not wholesome. Besides the fact that the US couldn’t even implement regime change in Afghanistan, so what’s the record.
I’m a big fan of both George Kennan and John Mearsheimer. Although Kotkin made reference to George Kennan it doesn’t seem like they’re on the same page when in comes to foreign policy. If I’m not mistaken if he were alive George Kennan would advocate ignoring Russia. Kotkin seems like he wants to antagonize them and that’s largely what’s gotten us into trouble and the poor people of Ukraine into big trouble. That’s not to mention all of those who’ve been killed or maimed. I agree with the notion of peace through strength. But along with that the concept of restraint is key concept. We as a species should try to avoid conflicts and wars and focus our time, money and energy on the bigger issues that we’re all confronted with.
How can one be a big fan of both John Mearsheimer and George Kennan? Mearsheimer tries, unsuccessfully, to say the U.S. caused the Russian invasion of Ukraine; Kennan warned that Russia, the leading Soviet "republic," was bent on expanding its empire and sphere of influence unless the U.S. and the other Western democracies contained Russia's aggressions. Kennan would argue that today, and would never argue for a Russian right to invade Ukraine or any other country.
American presidents love to be at home. The us has a tendency to deviate from internationalist to isolatism. It still has a price since Europe has not grown up fully
@PeterBakker Peter , you are absolutely right. America needs to be international .America needs to spread democracy around the world . Without America's presence in the world ,there can be no peace . Without America's spreading love and brotherhood , the world will be be destroyed . Thus spoke the great Kotkin .
@@vanessali1365 You must mean world war and not war peace . To say that the US is interested in peace only means that you are too young or totally unacquainted with what the US is doing and has done in the past to install dictators and overthrow democratically elected presidents . You should read more about geopolitics and US involvements over the years . I can recommend a number of books on that subject to enlighten you .
@@edvsilas8281 US ended WWll... still the one and only super power able to keep world peace. It's precisely bc of its unique geopolitical advantages. You're entitled to say whatever about it, which is not my view.
@@edvsilas8281 US is the one only super power capable of maintaining world peace... without America, Putin would be in EU and Xi would be in Taiwan, Philippines... We do want that.
Kotkin, I would have thought that since you are a historian you would realize that Russia is burning though its savings and that Russia has only a few years to finance its Ukraine war. Some are saying Russia will run out of savings in two to three years from now. After that Ukraine will have the upper hand and can remove the invading Russian forces as long as Ukraine is getting support from the US and Europe. Your idea that Ukraine and Russia should declare a ceasefire so that Ukraine can rebuild itself does not make sense in that a ceasefire would confirm Russia's gains.
This is such nonsense. Nonsense from start to finish. What happened to quality journalism? Why can’t a supposedly quality newspaper like the WSJ invite a guest who has the acumen to analyse the situation properly?
Kotkin is literally the foremost expert on russian geopolitics, if he doesn't have the "acumen" to analyze the "situation" properly, then who thefk does. Kotkin makes people like Mearshimer or sachs look like kindergarteners, both in academic acumen and political debate.
@@JohnDorian-j7x Actually, you have it ass-backwards. Mearsheimer makes Kotkin look like the kindergartener. Even Michael Rossii at Rutgers (who is an excellent scholar in every respect) is superior to Kotkin's Princeton stamped neoliberal drivel. You have no facts whatsoever to back up your conjecture that Kotkin is superior to Mearsheimer, and I'm itching to debate you on the fact that your preference for Kotkin over Mearsheimer is wholly based on ideological alignment, and has nothing whatsoever to do with the scholarship and acumen of either of them. Ball is in your court bub, try me. You represent Kotkin, and I'll represent Mearsheimer, and we'll see who is dealing in facts by the end of this. Go ahead, first move is yours, but if you're shy, I can do it for you.
This woman assumes that the international order is a voluntary thing. That everyone joins in voluntarily, and all are good reasonable players of the game, excepting Russia. That's a delusion. Europe accept the arrangement because the US pressures them to do so. And they have no independent military to defend themselves against Russia. What is called 'international' just means 'US controlled'.
I'm amazed by the comments attacking Kotkin. This is a highly intelligent, measured, reasonable guy laying out the historical truths that have led us to where we are. It tells me a lot about you if you find him unreasonable or unintelligent. He is a historian. Are you angry at history?
What to do with illiberal regimes in a liberal order: setup a tiered system of trade. This is from no trade and third party sanctions, trade except no export of high technology to their ownership/control, free
Thank you for a very insightful talk. Very valid points about finding russian nationalists as allies for the future alternative to putin. We have to take into account that russian federation is a multiethnic country and many of the peoples under Moscow's rule are ready to be decolonised thus forming their national states
Thats why everyone in the world hates US and distances themself more and more. Stop meddling in the internal affairs of sovereign states. Maybe you should try to rebuild your own economics instead of running around the world and threated everyone to stop growing their own economics. Maybe youshould withdraw your armies from half of the world before starting lecturing Russian on 'colonisation'.
Neocons are interventionists, and that is not what Kotkin is promoting. He is prompting diplomacy and statecraft. The administration of GW Bush, and its bumbling policy in Afghanistan and Iraq, pretty much killed interventionist policy in my country. I can't think of anybody that supports it.
Your speaker exemplifies the huge cultural gulf that exists between the US and Europe. He sees things purely in power terms. Europe needs to stop being subservient to US interests and secure it's long term future for itself, because the US has bo sense of responsibility.
I hear Kotkin but i see unrealistic and nonlogical person.Thus i start to wander how did you finish all those schools or how money has influence over what you are going to say even if it has a direct consequence of negating all your learning.
@@JohnDorian-j7xNever heard of him until today 1. His farcical definition of diplomacy 2. Ending the Ukraine war on terms favourable to Ukraine, they are being decimated 3. Russia is China's lap dog and a bonus 4. Pro Russian, anti war potential leader is a fantasy. The SMO has solidified the Russian people, even liberals are realizing the intense anti Russian sentiment in Europe, many have returned back to Russia rehabilitated. He's a definite light weight or propagandists. Check out the Duran, Judge Napolitano, Colonel Danny Davis all on UA-cam
Kotkin notes that authoritarian Russia, unlike the liberal West and especially the USA, offers its people limited political choices. At the same time, our open, rule-based system provides our people a choice between Biden and Trump, though he does not mention personalities. The contrast is brilliantly apparent.
The voters provided that choice. They could have changed the choice any time after 2015 but they didn't. The system let them choose their leader. So they did and they f---ed it up.
At least that IS a real choice. Russia has Monopoly, USA has Duopoly partu system. Once you have voted to keep Democracy, people should drastically REFORM politics, law and justice to open up the possibility of multiple relevant parties with real influence. A duopoly locks out too many people, when one of the parties goes bad you have a BIG problem, that needs a solution.
Che bravo il professore ... Se la canta e se la suona .Siamo i più forti al mondo e il nostro impero deve essere più lungo di quello che fu dei Romani .Metteremo missili davanti ogni casa che vogliamo. Stampiamo dollari quanto ne vogliamo ,non importa se abbiamo 33 biliardi di debito .A Cuba ,Canada ,Messico ,no missili altrui .incominciamo guerra dove vogliamo ,li sospendiamo a nostro piacimento . Guerre per procura a volontà ,contro la Russia Cina ,India ,iran . Good Luck USA .
armistice with russia means only one thing - give them time to build up, also kotkin constantly forgets about... khkmh Ukrainians, they have a vote on this too.
The flashing thing that bounces up and down in orchestration with the sound. It's not only distracting but unneeded. Show a rotating ball or just an image
It's what the Zionists want in their end days scenario to conjure in their anti Christ Messiah. Listen to the Zionists talking to their own in Israel. Their "holy" ground Gaza, West Bank, Jerusalem cannot be "contaminated" by non Jews.
Just for a minute allow yourself to think that USA is not an “exceptional ruler of the world” and all stupid theories of Mr. Kotkin will collapse. Let’s think… why Russia might need to invade Europe… because of EU’s resources…because Russia needs more territory…because this is the only way to get access to technologies…? Really? What make you think that one may bomb Belgrade because they decided to do so and how it differs from Russia’s approach to Ukraine?! I remember one fellow from Austria who insisted on his country and nation exceptionalism, but he ended up badly. But recently I heard another old man saying the same crap …and this Kotkin fellow continue this line. Are you sure that he knows something about history? It seems that he simply manipulates history to approve “rules (that nobody ever seen written) based order”.
One reason to get really tough on Oligarch's investments outside Russia or sanctions, is that if all or as many as possible loopholes were closed, there is an incentive to get them to organize and remove Putin out of their own self-interest, without any more soldiers or citizens being killed.
What makes Prof Kotkin believe that Putin has any interest or will ever have any interest in ceasing hostilities? The longer the war lasts, the better for him (and Putin believes he has the resources to keep it going for years). Until and unless Putin is out of the picture, the war will continue.
Only an American can give such a definition of diplomacy as Mr. Kotkin in the beginning of this interview. He basically says that diplomacy is not an accommodation on the basis of respect and equality, but about "leverage", i.e. forcing the weaker party to accept what they (the U.S.A.) want you to accept. Of course, anyone who thinks logically will understand that if the tables turned and the U.S. weren't the Big Dog any longer, if another country attained the "leverage", what Mr. Kotkin says is that it'd be perfectly fair for another country to dictate the terms of the deal to the entire world. I'm pretty certain that Mr. Kotkin himself would not accept it. This "rule" of the "rule-based order" is valid only if the U.S. is in command. 330 million are indispensable. The other 8 billion are... what's the opposite of indispensable?
@@JohnDorian-j7x I could volunteer to answer this question, if you are prepared to listen for several days. Are you? To be short, before I commence doing it, I have to say that prior to a scientist starting his study, the scientist in question should be neutral. Kotkin is not and that is the main problem. He views the history of Russia through from the angel of his ethnicity and his ethnicity's historic grievances in Russia.
@@IlmariNikkinen-g5g What were his "ethnicity and his ethnicity's historic grievances in Russia"? And why does that matter? Is there a specific case where he claims he's not impartial? Is there a particular instance where he's demonstrated not being partial, if so, what was it?
Having listened to Kotkin for the first time , I can only conclude that in his world , the US has the God given right to do whatever it pleases to whomever it pleases and at any time it pleases . And since God deemed it so , whatever the US does must be right by definition . I would much preferred listening to the real Pesci . I'm glad I had an empty doggie bag handy .
@@JohnDorian-j7x Why would I be mad watching the US wasting hundreds of billions of dollars in Ukraine and being thoroughly embarrassed after seeing their ultraexpensive toys being totally demolished , and afterseeing the US lossing to barefoot sheepherds in Afghanistan and lossing in Iraq over imaginary weapons of mass destruction and lossing in Vietnam while lossing close to 60,000 men ? You should be mad ,not me ? Don't you ever learn ?
@@JohnDorian-j7xThe only thing that did, was guarantee Ukraine's destruction, not anything to be proud of. The US acted like they were fighting against a third rate army and not a nuclear superpower. They must have paid Zelensky billions to make him believe that Ukraine could defeat Russia militarily. Ukraine is now totally dependent on the west, what a catastrophe this has become. The guest is delusional if he thinks there is any hope of this ending with anything other than unconditional surrender of Ukraine.
Aw!😢 Mearshimer is so out of touch! Why shouldn’t a country have a neighbour that is a democracy if different to the oligarchic debacle that Russia is? Mearshimer repeats too the same claptrap about China and Taiwan. So negative n boring! Kotkin is up to date because he knows how history shapes the future!
One of the many attributes that I deeply respect is his rabid Polonaphobia. He turns into Ivan Grozny evertime someone whipsers the word, "Poland." 😂 It is hilarious 🎉🎉🎉
I would like to see Kotkin debate Mearsheimer.
Me too, so I could see Kotkin lose to the facts.
I would love to see Kotkin make Mearsheimer look like an absolute clueless fool
@@JohnDorian-j7x Wouldn't happen, because Kotkin is the clueless fool compared to Mearsheimer.
He already lost the debate with Stephen F Coehen
@@zocho09 Is there a video of the debate with Cohen?
I learn something each time I listen to Kotkin, and can’t wait for his third volume on Stalin to come out.
Same. I’m into vol II. The guy is a genuine scholar. Smart dude.
@@skippy9659Smart, yes. But would you buy a second-hand car from him?
Today I learned that Kotkin uses his folksy common sense style to mask his Foucault roots.
@@briandonohue3608 Kotkin in interview is rather open about Foucault.
@@williamtell6750 I also thought he sounds like a second-hand car salesman pretending to be the only shop in the town and I am not buying his pitch.
I hear Kotkin but see Joe Pesci.
Now I see Marisa Tomei. Thanks for that. ☺️
Hahaha
Joe Pesci in his famous ganster role....yeah I pay attention also! lol
Yes
Funny how???
I see Kotkin, I click.
Most often, I listen twice.
@@artistforfreedomagreed!
I see Kotkin, I click OFF - this is the worst kind of corporate shill fascist you can imagine - not a word on the genocide in Palestine.
I see Kotkin, I hear Joe Pesci.
Leave the gun. Take the Kotkin.
Excellent stuff. Professor Kotkin is straight talking and profoundly insightful, as always.
Because he agrees with your opinion taken from western media, hardly known for unbiased opinion
I am from Georgia, which Putin invaded in 2008.08, and I absolutely agree with Mr. Kotkin that he paid almost no political price and there were no sanctions against the Kremlin for this daring move, which was the first in his chess game, that he is still playing, but this time in Ukraine.
Putin then did not achieve his goal in Georgia because he wanted to replace the incumbent President Saakashvili, who was a pro-Western politician, but he occupied 20% of Georgia and that was enough to put pressure on the Georgian government to replace him in the 2012 elections with the so-called “prison scandal”, which pushed people to vote against the current government and therefore place his own oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who soon took all power in parliament and step by step began to blame the West which he personally calls the “Global War Party" for interfering brazenly in Georgian politics. A years after it and a few days ago, the Georgian parliament approved the so-called “Russian law”, despite the recommendations of the US Department and senior EU diplomats not to do so, otherwise Georgia could lose all chances of becoming a member of the EU and NATO.
In short, Ivanishvili is now changing Georgia’s western vector and pushing this country towards Russia, but has not yet clearly stated this. I believe he will do this after winning the elections in October 2024 (completely rigging them).
As I mentioned, Putin didn't pay a serious price for invading Georgia, then he went to Syria, and then he made his next chess move to Ukraine in 2014, and then he invaded in 2022, and here we are now talking about World War III!
Could this have been avoided if Putin had to pay a serious price for invading Georgia in 2008? I believe that yes, since I know the Russians well, they only understand strength, otherwise they accept it as the weakness of the West (by the way, China too) and continue to move forward, and only forward, becoming more and more daire.
I also believe that if it weren't for Putin with his successful hibrid war tactics plan, China might not be as aggressive as it is now, and therefore it would probably be possible to maintain peace and especially avoid war and massacres in Ukraine.
Вы получили то чего выпрашивали, начали войну и получили ответ)
😂 more NONSENSE
@@yeastandgrapes Georgia attacked Russian peacekeepers first, add that one to the narratives.
@@samuelarthur9247 there is no such sing like "russian peacekeapers" in nature
Hail the superior Ukraine race, beloved Azov Brigade!
"Stephen Kotkin" is my absolute favorite search for all things Russia, diplomatic strategy, etc. Solid input for informed, intelligent reason.
LMAO. What a poor choice.
I agree. I search for new videos of his weekly.
America has no leverage, and it doesn't do diplomacy. Kotkin is in lalaland
Ukraine is losing. Stop the war.
Amazing how many Kremlin Bots/Cronies come out at the drop of a dime.
The one weakness in Prof. Kotkin's otherwise very sound and sensible analysis is that the idea of trying to coexist with Russia
as an illiberal state so long as they don't invade their neighbors is that it's been tried and failed. Germany's entire foreign policy with respect to Russia was based on the very notion that increased economic integration with Russia would make a serious invasion like the one Russia embarked on in Ukraine in February of 2022 unthinkable. It was this idea that economic pragmatism would, at the end of the day, temper a desire for re-establishing the old Russian empire that had so many assuming Russia's build up of forces on Ukraine's border could only be an attempt at international intimidation for the purpose of strengthening Russia's diplomatic bargaining position. Unfortunately Russia acted on a belief that the dependence on Russian gas and oil would make it impossible for Europe to seriously resist Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the rest is history. Prof. Kotkin has stated that the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has no apparent option but to keep doubling down (partly due to his individual nature and partly due to the politics of needing something to show for the tremendous price Russia has now paid for the invasion. Still, Putin's ruthlessness in jailing or murdering internal opposition figures makes the notion of influencing or empowering opposition or even encouraging some kind of coup sound too much like wishful thinking.
Sadly, I agree with you.
Kotkin never seems to mention the outlook for the Russian economy. It counts.
The whole idea of the EU is based on the notion that European countries will stop fighting for territories in exchange for stability and economic growth, through deeper cooperation and giving up nationalistic ideologies. This worked in EU so far, but if we look back we can see that the stability (absence of a major war) existed for less than a century, if we consider Yugoslavia wars - even less. For centuries prior European map was changed due to wars. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine shook not only the future of Russia, but the future of Europe as well. There is no guarantee that there will not come another dictator within Europe, who will challenge the system created after WWII favoring national pride for better living conditions. Similarly US is using its economic resources as a weapon against Russia. US has been the economic leader of the world for less than a century. We cannot take it for granted that it will continue for the foreseeable future.
@@alex_smallet You make some interesting points. The EU is essentially a post-imperial project for all those countries (with the exception of the UK) which had lost their empires, more or less, by the end of the Second World War. They coalesced precisely in order to prevent another attempt to forge a land empire out of the territory of Europe, having undergone the perils of the Third Reich and the catastrophe of what outsiders might well see as a European civil war.
The EU is clearly also an economic project and has been so successful that it is unrealistic to suppose that any "dictator" will arise within Europe who would risk the immeasurable economic catastrophe that is war as has Putin. EU living conditions, in the main, are amongst the very highest in the world. The trouble for Europe is that dictators like Putin see how successful the EU has become and wish to prevent the likes of Ukraine wherever possible from ever enjoying such high standards of living so close to the Russian border.
The US is hardly lifting a finger to restrain Russia, but a finger is all that is needed. Russia's GDP is 30 times smaller than the total GDP of those countries supporting Ukraine. That said, the US does not wish to see the disintegration of the Russian Federation for fear of handing the territories of Russia on a plate to the Chinese. This is, as things stand, a possible outcome, that at the very least Russia will become a satellite of the PRC, plundered for its vast natural resources. China should nevertheless hesitate before it tries to take over what is an economic basket case, a country with neither "western" nor "oriental" values, which has already swallowed up 80% of China's total belt and road initiative loan investments with very little to show for it and little prospect of ever being repaid .
There is no reason to suppose that the US will cede its overwhelming economic dominance any time in the foreseeable future. It does not depend on trade and has two seas as its eastern and western borders, along with by far the most powerful navy in the world. Russia's navy, by comparison is absolutely pitiful.
If the Russians had as tactically skillful an army Germany had in both world wars I'd be more concerned over the future coexistence of the EU and Russia. Fortunately for all parties involved Russia is still as bad a fighting force as it's always been throughout most of it's history so I don't see much of challenge here for Europe to contain so long as it maintains the technical militay superiority it has over Russia with the US at it's side.
Thank you both. I think my mind is in a better place now following on from your perspectives.
Excellent interview and analysis by Prof. Kotkin
What Stephen Kotkin says makes perfect sense at every level. You do not make the mistake of engaging on terms that are based on falsehood. The fight is about; the will to fight, the capacity to fight, and the protection of sovereignty.
But USA destroys sovereignty across the world? Look what you have done to us Europeans? We will not survive another 80 years of US occupation.
Yes. words. very good.
Yup 😊. Alot of friends in different places around the planet surviving together happy
At almost every level. The one place where I would take issue with him is in the "if" of the following quote:
"....so if you can't get them [the Russians] out...."
We CAN and SHOULD get them out.
We have the capacity to do so. We just lack the will.
Half an hour of pure American hubris
I am astonished on how a man woth such knowledge can speak so clear and understandable. Thank you for a great episode. Greets from Scandinavia! 😊
IS that a compliment, I git it...? I think...
Wait till you hear Mearsheimer, he makes Kotkin look like a kindergartener in comparison.
@@dwl3006he really doesn’t.
@@lieska333 He really does.
@@dwl3006 please learn something beyond US and Russian narratives of their own power. They don't encompass any understanding of the agency of smaller nations. If you think Ukraine is a proxy then you misunderstand a whole aspect of history and agency. If you don't understand the historical under-pinnings or trust the former head of the FSB's version of history as he gives his 30 minutes history lesson to Tucker Carlson then you are deluding yourself into knowing nothing but Kremlin narratives and Washington narratives. The world is a big space and understanding it isn't easy but definitely try by looking at what is suppressed: the real history of Ukraine and why Russia is so keen on denying its existence is a quandary. Why does Putin care so much about history? There are answers but they are not easy to find. Even many Ukrainians don't understand their own history and various Ukrainian historians assume it's clear so don't help lay it out. But this denial of a Ukraine started the moment Ivan the Terrible changed the name of Muscovy to Russia. Since then it has been a deadly effort of most of the rulers of the Kremlin to suppress and deny Ukrainian heritage. NATO enlargement isn't more than a talking point for English-speaking ears preying on Western guilt at our own coalition of power.
It took me the Ukraine conflict to realize that there is a pretty big neocon problem with history scholars in the United States, Kotkin and Snyder are some of the most dangerous specimens out there and I find it scary that they have some relative prestige.
You're just mad that the US is supporting and backing Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine
You hit the nail on the head. Makes me wonder how infested academia is in other fields with incompetent and vulgar scholars besides the one under the current spotlight.
Would you care to flesh out your perspective?
@@j.d.snyder4466 Not today NSA :)
Thanks for your disinformation, Ivan. Good luck with High School graduation.
Kotkin's advice on Ukraine is to go back to 2014 and playing on Russian weaknesses. What weaknesses? Any international doors are already closed without deterring Russia. Despite being an international pariah and sanctions internally and economically Russia better than ever. Russia is NEVER going to sign any treaty or ceasefire that allows NATO membership for Ukraine.
Who said an armistice had to include nato membership??? All Ukraine needs is some sort of security guarantor like from India, or China, or the US, or Indonesia or some coalition etc., so that if Russia invaded Ukraine again they wouldn't be alone and had military support to protect their borders/sovereignty/land.
Russia economically better than ever?
Share those happy pills with us, will you?
@@CollectiveDefence and where are writing from how’s the inflation in your country? Or are you one of the lucky ones who stores their wealth at Caiman Islands.
@@cmonman6609Inflation in America is not an explanation of Russian strength.
Putin’s war accomplishments thus far:
Unifying NATO.
A resurgent defense industry in the western world.
2 new NATO members.
Europe weaning itself from Russian energy.
A massive and ongoing Russian brain drain.
An end to normal economic, political and technological ties to the wealthiest nations.
Hundreds of thousands of dead or maimed soldiers and “the comedian “ is still in charge.
Russia now has a neighbor with 40 million people who will spit when they hear the word “Russian”.
Well done Vladimir. Be strong!
@@JohnDorian-j7x India and China are Russia's allies. Any other security guarantee that might be kept would have the same problem as NATO membership: Russia wouldn't find it acceptable.
Paul and Stephen. What a treat.
Kotkin's Magnetic Mountain is probably the best book ever written on life under Stalin's regime - strongly recommended - from a Professor of Soviet era Politics
Russia is not a US colony. We determine who governs us and shapes our destiny whether you like or not.
You don't determine anything. Step out of line and your local cafe is trying to feed you Chernobyl Sandwiches.
That's on top of the fact that you're engaged in armed robbery in Ukraine on a sorry-ass fraudulent victim narrative.
Except you are not a democracy so you dont really. Putin decides russia's destiny.
And Ukrainians demand to do so for their nation. so do Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Fins, romanians or Moldovans.
They refuse to have their destiny shaped by Russia.
They refuse to be part of anything Russian, they refuse any submission or subordination to Russia.
Russia has been scourge for national self-determination and freedom here for 1000 years, and given its behaviour it will be enemy of all here for another 1000.
do you agree they have equal right to refuse Russian opinion on government, laws and even language spoken?
who would claim otherwise? not Kotkin.
'do as i say not as i do' does not work well for parents, still less for nations.
"We are going to allow Russia to..."? Prof Kotkin seems to be stuck in Stalin era Russia. This US hegemony view is echoed in WSJ and Washington DC to their own detriment. This blind spot is a severe Achilles heel for the US.
Well said!!!! Most Americans are completely blind to their own arrogance.
Putin is stuck in the Stalin era.
Russia is the one stuck in the Stalin era.
@@artistforfreedom If you actually knew anything about Putin or Russia you’d know that Putin disagrees with Stalin on SOOOO many issues, that it makes your comment laughable… But I assume you get your media from western propagandists, so it is not shocking you’re so off-base.
@@crabluva I’ll tell you just like I told the entity above…
If you actually knew anything about Putin or Russia you’d know that Putin disagrees with Stalin on SOOOO many issues, that it makes your comment laughable… But I assume you get your media from western propagandists, so it is not shocking you’re so off-base.
Diplomacy is not about leverage. Blackmail is about leverage.
Diplomacy is the art and practice of building and maintaining relationships and conducting negotiations with people using tact and mutual respect. The US government prefers blackmail and generally doesn't understand what diplomacy is.
Nuclear attacks are threatened by the Kremlin multiple times per month since 2022. You don't hear any threat like that from the US.
Oh, couldn't agree more!!!
He basically said US diplomacy is about threats, which we know to be true, when you look at Europe's enthusiastic willingness to destroy their own economies to advance US hegemony by their insane level of russophobia.They should be looking to make peace with Russia
@@claudinefiona9698 Yep. It's only beneficial for Europe and Russia to be friends and to collaborate. But it's not beneficial for the US! So what will happen? Europe and Russia will be trying to kill each other for the benefit of the US...
Hello Europeans, is anybody at home???? What are you doing, for God's sake?!
I will take the Pax Americana rather than what your country would serve up if it were more powerful.
Kotkin is a real pleasure to listen to due to his easy grasp of political realities and his lucid explanation of these to the public. He is a master of 'nuance', perceiving what most cannot imagine as acceptable outcomes in relation to the war in Ukraine, yet which may well be the outcome we reach in 2024/5 or 6. In my view the sooner the better due to the preciousness of human lives. If the door is left open for Ukraine to regain its territory in the future, when winds change inside Russia, perhaps they will accept and peace comes.
lol
very greatful for proper explanation of the global situation.
Slava Ukraini!
I like Kotkin better when he speaks to the facts and the history, but not when he dances to the "tune".
Professor Kotkin’s analysis neglects the potential danger of U.S. federal debt. By 2034, the gross federal debt of the U.S. is projected to be about $54.39 trillion U.S. dollars(an increase of $23 trillion U.S. dollars from 2023).
We are increasing our national debt at a quick pace, about $1 trillion dollars - every 100 days. Interest on our national debt has to be paid back.
By 2028, our debt will reach a historic high of 106 percent of GDP and 200 percent by 2050, if debt left unaddressed.
U.S.spending on Defense is more than the next 10 countries combined ($849 Billion dollars).
Over the last 20 years as the U.S. fought the “war on terror” as American taxpayers spent an estimated $6 Trillion dollars-invading, bombing and occupying (and losing) wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The U.S.and its allies list 30,000 soldiers in Iraq; in addition to the 30,000 American veterans who committed suicide..and there are over 60,000 homeless vets…living on the streets.
Americans are tired of fighting foreign crusades, military interventions which vastly enhance the wealth of the military industrial complex; while 44 percent of U.S. workers earn jobs paying $18,000 or less per/year (2019)…while only three American multi-billionaires have more combined wealth than half the American population.
Come home America; put our own house in order first; before “slaying dragons overseas” in useless military adventures overseas.
When someone who's held up as America's top historian on Russia either wittingly or unwittingly distorts or goes along with distortions of the historical record, and also displays a fundamental misunderstanding of the realities on the ground in Russia, it's little wonder why we've ended up in the situation we have in Ukrainе...
Look at the tribe which he belongs to :) United States is only a tool for these people to realize their ethnocentric ambitions.
Spot on
💯
Please provide examples
@@tankergas7950 listen to the The Duran, Judge Nopalitano, The new atlas, Colonel Danny Davis, Dialogue Works, to name a few, all on YT. You will have a lifetime of examples
I wouldn't call Ukraine a liberal democracy
It is on its way to democracy, if russia is not going to destroy it.
Of course, but it's on the way and it's trying damn hard.
@@Maelli535 они стараются, только когда речь заходит о гееоциде русских.
I wouldn't call America and Israel either
@@Mortyel what?
She is a joke, provide political alternatives in Russia?
Putin is supported by majority of Russia s and that is significant
They would turn on Putin in a minute if it was possible!!!
How do know if there is no free press and no free elections? Do you read minds? Or just believe putin propaganda?
Yes! Why is this ignored by the West?
@@tommorgan1291 Putin is not a popular politician in the way you may think. People who cite Putin's approval rating usually come from countries with a healthy democracy, and this makes them confused about Russia.
Putin having an 80-90% approval rating isn't like a politician having 80-90% approval rating in a western country. In a western country, a high approval rating means that citizens look at a politician's policies and vision for the country, and they support those policies rather than a different set of policies or vision.
Putin's approval rating doesn't mean that 80-90% of Russians look at Putin, and say "out of the alternatives, I like Vladimir Putin's vision for my country, and I approve of his work". This makes no sense in Russia because... there are no alternatives to Putin. And the media, which is overwhelmingly controlled by the Kremlin, does a lot of work to prevent Russians from believing in their own agency. This process is called "depoliticization", and people in the West have a difficult time understanding it. The result is the belief that the Russian government, the Russian state itself, is Putin. And that Putin is the Russian state.
This would make no sense to an American (for example), who recognizes and experiences a practical and legal difference between the office of the President, and the person who occupies it. No such difference exists for Russians... Putin has been in power for over 20 years, and he exercises direct or indirect control over the entirety of the state.
So a person who understands none of this may say that Putin is in power because he has a 90% approval rating. This is what the original commenter appears to think. But they don't realize they have it backward. The truth is that Putin has a 90% approval rating... because he is (and has been for 20 years) in power. This sort of support is _extremely_ shallow, and this shallowness was on display (for example) during Prigozhin's short-lived rebellion.
@@jaarneal So many USA mistakes are due to not understanding other’s culture. Thanks for your reply.
As always with this expert, insightful and on point. Thank You Professor Kotkin and the WSJ 👏🏻
Main, mistake of the West. It's not enough supporting Ukraine in other country around Russia. Economically politically socially it will be much easier because this country goes through hell with Russia before.
A baileys on ice while listening to a Kotkin talk. Happy days.
I didn't know WSJ could also do journalism.
How true, especially since it is part of the Murdoch empire.
They can’t do journalism, only western propaganda. The fact you think this is journalism shows your bias and indoctrination.
@@American-In-MykolaivWhat the hell would you know about honest Journalism, Ukrop?
@@VirgoAtheist0971 Do you know how to spell M O R O N, little girl?
@@VirgoAtheist0971 probably more than the average american who espouses pro-russian talking
3:03 😂😂😂 that was awesome, one of my favorite expressions is "power is when you have it they don't know that you have it and you don't use it" from a Romanian author, to hear it in his speech was a great pleasure, when understanding meets understanding.
Armistices? 😂 with what American weapons can the US enforce it? America cant produce them fast enough! Why doesnt Kotkin debate John Mearsheimer? Because he would pick apart his arguments
Mearshimer refuses to debate Kotkin because he's worried Kotkin will make him look like a fool
@@JohnDorian-j7x you have no source that Mearsheimer refuses to debate !!! Moreover , Mearsheimer goes on shows like Piers Morgan who has a polar opposite view from his. Also, he has debated others with different views. Meanwhile Kotkin only does interviews with ‘Friendly’ interviewers like Lex Fridman and WSJ.
@@festekj lol, You're just mad that the US is supporting and backing Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine
@@JohnDorian-j7xRussia didn't "invade" Ukraine - Ukraine is part of Russia.
The US doesn't "support" Ukraine - the US uses Ukraine as a prop to hurt Russia, and the US doesn't feel sorry for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian people who have lost their lives, their limbs, their families and livelihoods in order for the States to prolong the agony of the American empire.
@@JohnDorian-j7x i simply ask you for a “source” and you say im “mad about US support of Ukraine “? US support of Ukraine and Gaza is isolating the US on the global stage. Simply look at UN votes. Only the United States, Israel and a handful of tiny US puppet countries voted with the US. These two conflicts will lead to the USD losing world currency reserve status in about 2 years. If the US loses this enormous privilege of currency reserve status, America will also lose its ability to fund military bases around the world. Hence lose its ability to project power. And over what? Gaza and Ukraine? Meanwhile the rise of China continues. The US foreign policy has been a disaster since the Clintons came to power. Its policy driven by corruption instead of purpose.
Kotkin is a gift. His analysis is incisive, and based on intense study of the things about which he speaks. Would that the State Department could be led by such a man.
Do you really want nationalists like Dugin in power?
And do you really think they would accept a Ucraine in Nato on their most vulnerable southern boarder?
With people like Dugin, Russia would be a much greater thread for the west imo.
wow, the dude is smart, would love to hear 10 must read historical books from Mr. Kotking, thanks for the upload!
Two major failings on the part of the US foreign policy/intel community have created the situation we have with Russia today. First, when the Soviet Union dissolved the intel community saw its raison d'etre going away. To continue to thrive as a bureaucratic entity it could not let the US take a friendly attitude toward the emerging Russia so they continued to make it their bogeyman and the morons in the FS allowed themselves to be led by the nose into a reflexive anti-Russia stance. This has been the status quo ever since and led to the encroachment of NATO right up to Russia's borders, laying the groundwork for the Ukraine war.. Secondly, after the the 2016 election the apparatus feared Trump might make nice with Russia so they created the Russia Collusion Hoax which had the triple purpose of perpetuating the story of Russian malfeasance while at the same time both tying Trump's hands regarding any possibility of a rapprochement and damaging his Presidency in general. The US intelligence community is a malignant entity that will bring down the nation eventually if it is not ripped out root and branch.
Полностью согласен
Of course, except that every single thing you write is a lie. Benevolent Russians and the bad, bad US intelligence community…
Adjust your tinfoil hat, Willie.
The arrogance coming out of American foreign policies and those who help to fashion and implement them out is beyond disbelief.
No wonder the rest of the world outside the Western(18%) spheres are challenging it. Even some Western countries(Slovakia, Hungary) have started charting a course outside the American lead.
They’ll learn.
Просто омерзительно то, что они говорят. Вы ошибаетесь, в России всё хорошо, всем плевать на ваши санкции, они только разжигают ненависть к вам, но никак не отражаются на нашей жизни
Война никак не разрушает Россию, только усиливает патриотизм, потому что ты теперь все поняли как вы к нам на самом деле относитесь
Love Kotkin. Always on the spot. Smart and succinct.
Mr. Kotkin's suggestions as to how to deal with authoritarian regimes is clever and sensible.
and this guy is an expert on Russia .. ? Ha ha ha .... Tony Blinken with a Mickey Mouse voice
No, I think he is an outstanding historian of the USSR. I don't think he has mastered the change from the USSR and the Russian Federation.
You might want to learn to type before you criticize anyone else. Your thoughts?
Hahaha! Good punch bro, spot on
Hahaha “we need russian nationalists who are pro-russia but think that the war is damaging russia” - russia has to be damaged before someone thinks it is damaged.
More from Stephen Kotkin please .🌷🙏👌
Agreed. My favorite intellectual for all things Russia. Like, every time. He reminds me a LOT of my Czarist Russia professor from university who also worked with the US State Department. Who knows, they may know each other.
@@kbone8137 No wonder the U.S. state department fails at understanding Russia so hard, they listen to people like Kotkin and your professor!
Thanks for an excellent interview
The blocking of military supply to Ukraine for six months was an unmitigated absurdity . . .
@georgeallcorn6302
It was a gratuitous help to Putin initiated by Trumpooshka .
US diplomats couldn’t negotiate their way out of a paper bag.
This freak is a court historian-stuck in the most outdated and asinine paradigms imaginable.
These people got their a$$es kicked in the geopolitical game.
Couldn’t of said it better myself.
Ok genius, what would you do?
This man lives in the world of his own..
the best comment and the true one!
Professor Kotkin is a Brilliant Man, the most informative and common sense question and answer dialogue I have heard on the Ukraine War.
Have you listened to people with a different outlook? VN Brovkin for instance?
Unfortunately Prof Kotkin, who used to have a balanced and ironic view of power, has turned more and more into a lobbiest for US hegemony since he joined Hoover. He used to be more of a real academic, now he has joined the punditry circles. I don’t agree with „covert and open“ initiatives to regime change. People of all nations deserve to make their own decisions and the undercurrents of chaos these policies create are not wholesome. Besides the fact that the US couldn’t even implement regime change in Afghanistan, so what’s the record.
You're just mad that the US is supporting and backing Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine, lmaoooooo!
@@JohnDorian-j7xno, I support that cause.
@@JohnDorian-j7x What is there to be mad about ? USia always supported the terrorists and the dictators of the worst sort. More profit that way.
Mr or mrs( what's hell with voice) Kotkin typical arrogant atlantist....I didn't hear anything new there.
Nice, I am in the middle of reading Paradoxes of Power for the 2nd time.
I’m a big fan of both George Kennan and John Mearsheimer. Although Kotkin made reference to George Kennan it doesn’t seem like they’re on the same page when in comes to foreign policy. If I’m not mistaken if he were alive George Kennan would advocate ignoring Russia. Kotkin seems like he wants to antagonize them and that’s largely what’s gotten us into trouble and the poor people of Ukraine into big trouble. That’s not to mention all of those who’ve been killed or maimed. I agree with the notion of peace through strength. But along with that the concept of restraint is key concept. We as a species should try to avoid conflicts and wars and focus our time, money and energy on the bigger issues that we’re all confronted with.
Then Russia should not have invaded Ukraine. They should leave. The sooner the better. They will never win.
How can one be a big fan of both John Mearsheimer and George Kennan? Mearsheimer tries, unsuccessfully, to say the U.S. caused the Russian invasion of Ukraine; Kennan warned that Russia, the leading Soviet "republic," was bent on expanding its empire and sphere of influence unless the U.S. and the other Western democracies contained Russia's aggressions. Kennan would argue that today, and would never argue for a Russian right to invade Ukraine or any other country.
Way too many advertisements!
American presidents love to be at home. The us has a tendency to deviate from internationalist to isolatism. It still has a price since Europe has not grown up fully
@PeterBakker
Peter , you are absolutely right. America needs to be international .America needs to spread democracy around the world . Without America's presence in the world ,there can be no peace . Without America's spreading love and brotherhood , the world will be be destroyed . Thus spoke the great Kotkin .
Europe is progressing with US involvement in NATO. American influence is global and crucial for world peace 🕊️
@@vanessali1365 You must mean world war and not war peace . To say that the US is interested in peace only means that you are too young or totally unacquainted with what the US is doing and has done in the past to install dictators and overthrow democratically elected presidents . You should read more about geopolitics and US involvements over the years . I can recommend a number of books on that subject to enlighten you .
@@edvsilas8281 US ended WWll... still the one and only super power able to keep world peace. It's precisely bc of its unique geopolitical advantages. You're entitled to say whatever about it, which is not my view.
@@edvsilas8281 US is the one only super power capable of maintaining world peace... without America, Putin would be in EU and Xi would be in Taiwan, Philippines... We do want that.
Kotkin, I would have thought that since you are a historian you would realize that Russia is burning though its savings and that Russia has only a few years to finance its Ukraine war. Some are saying Russia will run out of savings in two to three years from now. After that Ukraine will have the upper hand and can remove the invading Russian forces as long as Ukraine is getting support from the US and Europe.
Your idea that Ukraine and Russia should declare a ceasefire so that Ukraine can rebuild itself does not make sense in that a ceasefire would confirm Russia's gains.
Бред, через несколько лет в Украине не останется мужчин и некем будет воевать
@@whitelie79 Ukraine has a population of around 40 million. There are say 200 thousand removed by the war. It looks like Ukraine has a long way to go.
@@NeilNelson-m6d какие 200 тысяч? Намного больше, несколько миллионов точно
Я имею в виду уехали в разные страны
А над количеством потерь в 200 тысяч смеется даже Арестович, это откровенная ложь правительства Зеленского
This is such nonsense. Nonsense from start to finish. What happened to quality journalism? Why can’t a supposedly quality newspaper like the WSJ invite a guest who has the acumen to analyse the situation properly?
because it's the WALL STREET journal. They work for the MIC.
Kotkin is literally the foremost expert on russian geopolitics, if he doesn't have the "acumen" to analyze the "situation" properly, then who thefk does. Kotkin makes people like Mearshimer or sachs look like kindergarteners, both in academic acumen and political debate.
@@JohnDorian-j7x Actually, you have it ass-backwards. Mearsheimer makes Kotkin look like the kindergartener. Even Michael Rossii at Rutgers (who is an excellent scholar in every respect) is superior to Kotkin's Princeton stamped neoliberal drivel.
You have no facts whatsoever to back up your conjecture that Kotkin is superior to Mearsheimer, and I'm itching to debate you on the fact that your preference for Kotkin over Mearsheimer is wholly based on ideological alignment, and has nothing whatsoever to do with the scholarship and acumen of either of them.
Ball is in your court bub, try me. You represent Kotkin, and I'll represent Mearsheimer, and we'll see who is dealing in facts by the end of this. Go ahead, first move is yours, but if you're shy, I can do it for you.
@@JohnDorian-j7xsay who?? Western MSM , John Mearsheimer is the man
It’s the opinion page. Do you even understand the difference?
What a selfrighteous nonsense!
This woman assumes that the international order is a voluntary thing. That everyone joins in voluntarily, and all are good reasonable players of the game, excepting Russia. That's a delusion. Europe accept the arrangement because the US pressures them to do so. And they have no independent military to defend themselves against Russia. What is called 'international' just means 'US controlled'.
Putin was born without a penis.
Or because it's the easy way out for a group of nations that couldn't figure it out over 2000 years of trying
European absence more than us controlled
I'm amazed by the comments attacking Kotkin. This is a highly intelligent, measured, reasonable guy laying out the historical truths that have led us to where we are. It tells me a lot about you if you find him unreasonable or unintelligent. He is a historian. Are you angry at history?
Around the ten minute mark, is Kotkin describing "illiberal Regimes" or the "West"?
Hahaha!
Peerfect Answer! kotkin's lies are entertaining!
What to do with illiberal regimes in a liberal order: setup a tiered system of trade. This is from no trade and third party sanctions, trade except no export of high technology to their ownership/control, free
Very interesting podcast.
Thank you for a very insightful talk. Very valid points about finding russian nationalists as allies for the future alternative to putin. We have to take into account that russian federation is a multiethnic country and many of the peoples under Moscow's rule are ready to be decolonised thus forming their national states
Thats why everyone in the world hates US and distances themself more and more. Stop meddling in the internal affairs of sovereign states. Maybe you should try to rebuild your own economics instead of running around the world and threated everyone to stop growing their own economics. Maybe youshould withdraw your armies from half of the world before starting lecturing Russian on 'colonisation'.
Dude talking wish lists here. So much hypocrisy in one podcast it’s astounding.
Great job pointing out where you think he was wrong, dumb--dumb.
Mearsheiner is exactly spot on with everything he’s ever had to say. Not so much with Kotkin.
One non-expert on eastern Europe validating another non-expert on Eastern Europe.
Thank you, Mr Nicer2BNice.
Wrong, Stalin.
@@16252 Stephen Cohen was an expert on Eastern Europe, and he was in agreement with Mearsheimer.
Strange, opinions are wildly different on the these historians.
I myself consider Mearsheim a Russia appeaser who is stuck in the past.
@@jfverboom7973 It's because you don't understand what diplomacy is that you call it "appeasement".
Interesting insight that the West should encourage Russian Nationalists who believe that Putin's War is degrading Russia. Thanks Kotkin and WSJO!
You must be dilutional, do your research, there people aren't talking what's on the ground, westing hegemony is ending!
@@CyprianNkunika-xk7ep You believe Putin will improve your life. He will kill you once he is through with you.
Kotkin sounds just like any other neocon.
More like a Reaganite. And thats good.
You're just mad that the US is supporting and backing Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine, lolololol
Neocons are interventionists, and that is not what Kotkin is promoting. He is prompting diplomacy and statecraft. The administration of GW Bush, and its bumbling policy in Afghanistan and Iraq, pretty much killed interventionist policy in my country. I can't think of anybody that supports it.
I want to hear what Kotkin has to say about Zelensky
What a BS
Your speaker exemplifies the huge cultural gulf that exists between the US and Europe. He sees things purely in power terms. Europe needs to stop being subservient to US interests and secure it's long term future for itself, because the US has bo sense of responsibility.
I hear Kotkin but i see unrealistic and nonlogical person.Thus i start to wander how did you finish all those schools or how money has influence over what you are going to say even if it has a direct consequence of negating all your learning.
Neither Kotkin or Mearsheimer are reliable sources of information.
After years of accusing Russia of political interference in US elections, Kotkin is now proposing American political interference in Russia.
He's become a joke.
@@crhu319 What specifically are 3 of his best examples where he's demonstrated "becoming a joke"?
Они и так бесконечно вмешиваются, Навальный их агент и это прекрасно понимает большинство в России
@@JohnDorian-j7xNever heard of him until today 1. His farcical definition of diplomacy 2. Ending the Ukraine war on terms favourable to Ukraine, they are being decimated 3. Russia is China's lap dog and a bonus 4. Pro Russian, anti war potential leader is a fantasy. The SMO has solidified the Russian people, even liberals are realizing the intense anti Russian sentiment in Europe, many have returned back to Russia rehabilitated. He's a definite light weight or propagandists. Check out the Duran, Judge Napolitano, Colonel Danny Davis all on UA-cam
Kotkin notes that authoritarian Russia, unlike the liberal West and especially the USA, offers its people limited political choices. At the same time, our open, rule-based system provides our people a choice between Biden and Trump, though he does not mention personalities. The contrast is brilliantly apparent.
The voters provided that choice. They could have changed the choice any time after 2015 but they didn't. The system let them choose their leader. So they did and they f---ed it up.
At least that IS a real choice.
Russia has Monopoly, USA has Duopoly partu system.
Once you have voted to keep Democracy, people should drastically REFORM politics, law and justice to open up the possibility of multiple relevant parties with real influence.
A duopoly locks out too many people, when one of the parties goes bad you have a BIG problem, that needs a solution.
Che bravo il professore ...
Se la canta e se la suona .Siamo i più forti al mondo e il nostro impero deve essere più lungo di quello che fu dei Romani .Metteremo missili davanti ogni casa che vogliamo.
Stampiamo dollari quanto ne vogliamo ,non importa se abbiamo 33 biliardi di debito .A Cuba ,Canada ,Messico ,no missili altrui .incominciamo guerra dove vogliamo ,li sospendiamo a nostro piacimento .
Guerre per procura a volontà ,contro la Russia Cina ,India ,iran .
Good Luck USA .
armistice with russia means only one thing - give them time to build up, also kotkin constantly forgets about... khkmh Ukrainians, they have a vote on this too.
"time to build up" you mean what OKRAINE did with the Minsk ceasefire agreements.
Russia would never give an armistice, why would Russia let NATO rearmed Ukraine like they did during the. Minsk agreement
Oh, God Wall Street Journal.Are you kidding please?I can't believe people will even listen to you
The ONE thing the American should do is to stand up against genocide by the IDF in Gaza.
5:09 "How do we manage these regimes?" Eh? There in a nutshell is your problem.
Very good episode. The animated Spectrum Analyzer is highly distracting.
It is "audio" - simply stop watching the video.
I agree. Why not search WSJ immense stock of images and show something relevant? I guess college interns are too expensive for print media. :)
What Analyzer?.?
The flashing thing that bounces up and down in orchestration with the sound. It's not only distracting but unneeded. Show a rotating ball or just an image
Straight to the point
This is not ideas but narratives, this doomed to fail. Wake-up folks - this is road to hell he is talking about.
It's what the Zionists want in their end days scenario to conjure in their anti Christ Messiah. Listen to the Zionists talking to their own in Israel. Their "holy" ground Gaza, West Bank, Jerusalem cannot be "contaminated" by non Jews.
Just for a minute allow yourself to think that USA is not an “exceptional ruler of the world” and all stupid theories of Mr. Kotkin will collapse. Let’s think… why Russia might need to invade Europe… because of EU’s resources…because Russia needs more territory…because this is the only way to get access to technologies…? Really? What make you think that one may bomb Belgrade because they decided to do so and how it differs from Russia’s approach to Ukraine?!
I remember one fellow from Austria who insisted on his country and nation exceptionalism, but he ended up badly. But recently I heard another old man saying the same crap …and this Kotkin fellow continue this line. Are you sure that he knows something about history? It seems that he simply manipulates history to approve “rules (that nobody ever seen written) based order”.
Well said 👍
Spot on.
Russia "needs" more territory ?
It already has more than it can handle. Russia is so small it has 11 time zones !
I love Mr. Kotkin. I learn every time I listen to him
One reason to get really tough on Oligarch's investments outside Russia or sanctions, is that if all or as many as possible loopholes were closed, there is an incentive to get them to organize and remove Putin out of their own self-interest, without any more soldiers or citizens being killed.
Kotkin should debate Mearsheimer
Not worthy of the effort.
@@American-In-Mykolaiv It would be very helpful, though. Many people listen to Mearsheimer and the like in Europe and the USA.
Not gonna happen. Too bad Stephen Cohen isn’t around to debate Kotkin.
John Mearsheimer would destroy him, this idiot just has accusations, where mearsheimer has facts
Extremely knowledgeable I'm hooked.
What makes Prof Kotkin believe that Putin has any interest or will ever have any interest in ceasing hostilities? The longer the war lasts, the better for him (and Putin believes he has the resources to keep it going for years). Until and unless Putin is out of the picture, the war will continue.
ha ha ha he does have more resources then the Western so call democracy regime
Не переживай, мы победим и война закончится
Only an American can give such a definition of diplomacy as Mr. Kotkin in the beginning of this interview. He basically says that diplomacy is not an accommodation on the basis of respect and equality, but about "leverage", i.e. forcing the weaker party to accept what they (the U.S.A.) want you to accept. Of course, anyone who thinks logically will understand that if the tables turned and the U.S. weren't the Big Dog any longer, if another country attained the "leverage", what Mr. Kotkin says is that it'd be perfectly fair for another country to dictate the terms of the deal to the entire world. I'm pretty certain that Mr. Kotkin himself would not accept it. This "rule" of the "rule-based order" is valid only if the U.S. is in command. 330 million are indispensable. The other 8 billion are... what's the opposite of indispensable?
Dispensable
Amazes me how in her logic, Russia needs to be treated like a child. But refuses to conduct talks like adults. Full of cliches...
You're just mad that the US is supporting and backing Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine, lmaooo
Steve Kotkin is simply brilliant. Thank You!
The arrogance, hubris and lack of understanding of geopolitical and international interests of this audio is beyond belief.
All to believeable
What specifically did he say that demonstrated a "lack of understanding of geopolitical and international interests"?
💯 this podcast was pure garbage
@@JohnDorian-j7x I could volunteer to answer this question, if you are prepared to listen for several days. Are you? To be short, before I commence doing it, I have to say that prior to a scientist starting his study, the scientist in question should be neutral. Kotkin is not and that is the main problem. He views the history of Russia through from the angel of his ethnicity and his ethnicity's historic grievances in Russia.
@@IlmariNikkinen-g5g What were his "ethnicity and his ethnicity's historic grievances in Russia"? And why does that matter? Is there a specific case where he claims he's not impartial? Is there a particular instance where he's demonstrated not being partial, if so, what was it?
I so agree. If you know what the enemies view is locked into you can use that to weaken its plays.
The depth of Kotkin's delusion of grandeur is simply clinical. Professor, get help!
genial your comment!
Love listening to Kotkin.
Having listened to Kotkin for the first time , I can only conclude that in his world , the US has the God given right to do whatever it pleases to whomever it pleases and at any time it pleases . And since God deemed it so , whatever the US does must be right by definition . I would much preferred listening to the real Pesci . I'm glad I had an empty doggie bag handy .
You're just mad that the US is supporting and backing Ukraine after Russia invaded Ukraine, LMAOOO!
@@JohnDorian-j7x Why would I be mad watching the US wasting hundreds of billions of dollars in Ukraine and being thoroughly embarrassed after seeing their ultraexpensive toys being totally demolished , and afterseeing the US lossing to barefoot sheepherds in Afghanistan and lossing in Iraq over imaginary weapons of mass destruction and lossing in Vietnam while lossing close to 60,000 men ? You should be mad ,not me ? Don't you ever learn ?
💯
@@JohnDorian-j7xThe only thing that did, was guarantee Ukraine's destruction, not anything to be proud of. The US acted like they were fighting against a third rate army and not a nuclear superpower. They must have paid Zelensky billions to make him believe that Ukraine could defeat Russia militarily. Ukraine is now totally dependent on the west, what a catastrophe this has become. The guest is delusional if he thinks there is any hope of this ending with anything other than unconditional surrender of Ukraine.
Aw!😢 Mearshimer is so out of touch! Why shouldn’t a country have a neighbour that is a democracy if different to the oligarchic debacle that Russia is? Mearshimer repeats too the same claptrap about China and Taiwan. So negative n boring! Kotkin is up to date because he knows how history shapes the future!
One of the many attributes that I deeply respect is his rabid Polonaphobia. He turns into Ivan Grozny evertime someone whipsers the word, "Poland." 😂 It is hilarious 🎉🎉🎉
Why Dr. Kotkin isn't the my national security advisor? I learn so much listening to him.
This guy is an American exceptionalist.... absolutely full of BS!
He forgot to mention Cuba