Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview

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  • Опубліковано 21 гру 2024

КОМЕНТАРІ • 255

  • @imaginaryenterprises
    @imaginaryenterprises 7 місяців тому +540

    It's always great to hear Joe Pesci speak geopolitics!

    • @donaldstewart444
      @donaldstewart444 7 місяців тому +24

      He’ll love that😅

    • @BlueBaron3339
      @BlueBaron3339 7 місяців тому +7

      😂😆🤣

    • @cristiancea85
      @cristiancea85 7 місяців тому +26

      I knew that he reminded me somebody, i cant unsee it now

  • @serge-szawlow
    @serge-szawlow 7 місяців тому +260

    Kotkin talks about how Ukraine rejected peace treaties with Russia. And he never mentioned that Russia always, always breaks any treaty as soon as it sutis Moscow. The recent examples- Chechnya. Beofre that - FInland. Does Kotkin know about this? Of course! Why he ignores this, and pushes this idea about "treaties" with Russia? That's a good question.

  • @jaymacpherson8167
    @jaymacpherson8167 7 місяців тому +200

    I admire Professor Kotkin’s thinking and analyses. The winning the peace concept is wise. However, the road to winning the peace is sometimes cloaked in shadow.
    For instance…Arguing a mistake by Ukraine was made in not pursuing an armistice with Russia assumes Russia is trustworthy. Further, an armistice abandons the Ukrainians on the other side of the front line. Russia has been effective at agreeing without acting upon the agreements. I, for one, have no faith Russia would honor the terms of any agreement.

    • @AJThielmann
      @AJThielmann 7 місяців тому +13

      Agree

    • @briancarl5566
      @briancarl5566 7 місяців тому +37

      Agree with you 100%. I'm a huge fan of Kotkin as well, but he puts too much faith in the Russians honoring any sort of agreement long-term. Their record is bad on this. It wasn't in Ukraine's interest to have the world move on to other things - the Russians would have just sent the tanks back in, after everyone stopped paying attention.

    • @petergreenwood7731
      @petergreenwood7731 7 місяців тому +11

      Russia says it was the west who reneged on Minsk and Istanbul
      What did Merkel say about the Minsk agreement?

    • @MG-ye1hu
      @MG-ye1hu 7 місяців тому +26

      Agreements are not about trustworthiness but about balance of power. Such agreements only work if keeping them is more beneficial than breaking them by force of power. This is why the Munich agreement in 1938 was meaningless. Nazi Germany was the most powerful player at this time, and could break any agreement as they please, exactly what the US does today.
      A peace agreement with Russia can work if Nato is the the enforcer. Not because we trust Russia but because Nato is powerful enough to keep Russia in check.

  • @American-In-Mykolaiv
    @American-In-Mykolaiv 7 місяців тому +192

    Kotkin is my favorite historian - he understand Russia and knows what the future holds for Russia, if they continue their"stand alone" policy. Putin is done, it is only a question of time.

    • @Miloun
      @Miloun 7 місяців тому +10

      Kotkin is a revelation to me. I only discovered him last year. His insight into current politics is unparalleled in both its depth and breadth. Mind blown. (AND he originally studied Czech, which is the language my old home country :D )

    • @canadianmarauder1923
      @canadianmarauder1923 7 місяців тому +10

      I could listen to Steven talk all day. Guy is so interesting.

  • @chocaliciouz
    @chocaliciouz 7 місяців тому +131

    I really want to see a debate between Kotkin and Mearsheimer

  • @shingnosis
    @shingnosis 7 місяців тому +206

    I'm a simple man. I see Kotkin video I click play.

  • @harrybaulz666
    @harrybaulz666 7 місяців тому +212

    Steve assumes russia would honor a armistice agreement. Ukraine and the baltics and Poland know better

    • @esakoivuniemi
      @esakoivuniemi 7 місяців тому +40

      I totally agree. It seems like Steve doesn't have a real grasp on Russia. Talking about an armistice just sounds naive to me. Russia has never honored a single agreement, ever. Plus, Steve's arguments feel very America-focused. If you ask me, Frank Kagan and Timothy Snyder are probably the best Russia experts in the USA right now.

  • @luskvideoproductions869
    @luskvideoproductions869 7 місяців тому +66

    Kotkin makes some great points, but the idea of an armistice 2022 that the Russians would actually honor is ridiculous...they violated the Minsk agreement, the Budapest memorandum, etc...they constantly meddle with neighboring countries and their independence. How could we possibly think they would have agreed to anything in Oct.of 2022?

  • @peterwhite7428
    @peterwhite7428 7 місяців тому +88

    Stephen Kotkin is a man I would love to meet one day. He is brilliant and humble. I agree with him on everything he says, having spent a lot of time in Russia and Ukraine.

  • @DavidH-ve4fm
    @DavidH-ve4fm 7 місяців тому +114

    Could listen to Kotkin for hours.

  • @mamasonicarchives
    @mamasonicarchives 7 місяців тому +24

    No, this is not the way to go. Mr Kotkin is believing that a deal with Russia is possible. That is not so. His whole argument falls on this simple point.

  • @HaukeLaging
    @HaukeLaging 7 місяців тому +86

    What would the Ukraine UA-cam world be without Stephen Kotkin... 👏

  • @vaughanbean1156
    @vaughanbean1156 7 місяців тому +4

    22:41 Thank you Stephen Kotkin for sharing your grasp of affairs and your innate intelligence with us. Listening to you is a privilege.

  • @listener523
    @listener523 7 місяців тому +16

    Whilst I appreciate and approve of Kotkin calling for clarity in our foreign policy? We haven't seen clearly stated mission objectives nor exit strategy since the Swartzkopf debriefing in Iraq 1.

  • @LearnHistoryS
    @LearnHistoryS 7 місяців тому +44

    Kotin might be a good historian, but geopolitics is not his strength. Neverthless, I still appreciate his knowledge in Russian History.

    • @CyrisAeon
      @CyrisAeon 7 місяців тому +22

      Would love to hear your specific thoughts! What areas did his conclusions feel off base geopolitically?

  • @shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402
    @shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402 7 місяців тому +4

    Kotkin’s ironic ( or is it sarcastic) sense of humor is always a delightful surprise. Not having dinner with Putin these days? Unlike all those public commentators who claim to know Putin’s thinking. 🥹

  • @tamil.f.3734
    @tamil.f.3734 7 місяців тому +72

    Wow! Someone talking sense about Russia and China. What a fresh and intelligent thinking! I salute you Stephen Kotkin!

  • @VolodymyrFrolov
    @VolodymyrFrolov 7 місяців тому +13

    There was never any real peace treaty on the table. What Kotkin doesn't talk about is that Russia is a trickster, it had a number of peace treaties with Ukraine and didn't respect any single one of them. Any such treaty would bind Ukraine, but it wouldn't bind Russia in any way, because they don't care about what's written in any of these treaties. Russia would just catch its breath and keep fighting. Knowing all of this very well, Kotkin still decides to lie into our faces.

  • @1stAma
    @1stAma 7 місяців тому +25

    I really respect kotkin but it's sad to see how he is repeating Russian talking points about the negotiations in 2022. He's unfortunately also misrepresenting the negotiations. There never was a realistic prospect of peace.

  • @BlueBaron3339
    @BlueBaron3339 7 місяців тому +17

    Don't call it a podcast. It's an actual *interview.* No point in naming names because everyone has seen true scholars and experts stepped on CONSTANTLY by alleged interviewers. Dan Kurtz-Phelan is different. He not only poses excellent, penetrating questions. He allows people to *answer them* without dilatory interruptions. Podcasts are entertainment. This is better.

  • @jeffreysilverman3633
    @jeffreysilverman3633 7 місяців тому +7

    Outstanding interview with Professor Stephen Kotkin!! He is brilliant, incisive, perceptive and entertaining and this mix of ingredients is rare.

  • @TheParadoxDestroyer
    @TheParadoxDestroyer 7 місяців тому +38

    Mr. Kotkin may well be the most insightful person alive on foreign relations. Brilliant podcast. Kudos!

  • @NyPer920
    @NyPer920 7 місяців тому +61

    Always enjoy listening to Prof Kotkin.

  • @donaldstewart444
    @donaldstewart444 7 місяців тому +17

    Kotkin is certainly a wonderful American gift.

  • @longhaulblue
    @longhaulblue 7 місяців тому +10

    Excellent. I really enjoyed Prof. Kotkin's insights.

  • @diilouise
    @diilouise 7 місяців тому +10

    I like Prof Kotkin's take on foreign policy and explaining it. Good questions, too. Thanks from 🇦🇺

  • @vaughanbean1156
    @vaughanbean1156 7 місяців тому +1

    47:60 Nailed it. If you can't be bothered to listen to the whole thing, listen to the 5 minutes around this and you'll understand why we need to be listening to this guy and why it is so damaging that politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are deaf to this message and how tragic this is going to be to us all over the next 5 to 10 years. Again, thank you Stephen.

  • @almiroff6949
    @almiroff6949 7 місяців тому +25

    It is mentally refreshing to listen to a cogent explaination of a complex issue(s). Thanks.

  • @NiPaVou
    @NiPaVou 7 місяців тому +10

    That's quality content. Thank you so much for this great interview. Mr. Kotkin is an excellent speaker.

  • @frankshifreen
    @frankshifreen 7 місяців тому +8

    Great as always love KOTKIN

  • @lewisyeadon4046
    @lewisyeadon4046 7 місяців тому +5

    People disagreeing with Kotkin on the treaty/armistice question are missing the point entirely - yes, Russia is not trustworthy and will strive all they can to renege on any deals, but at least creating a temporary deal where the accession of Ukraine into NATO and the EU occurs would make any Russian gains or trickery meaningless. This why the definition of "victory" is so important; a situation where Ukraine takes back land and is locked in a forever war is not better than one where the voluntarily sign away land but gain the protections and prosperity required to rebuild in the West that Putin wants to move Ukraine away from.

  • @howardking3601
    @howardking3601 7 місяців тому +2

    I've learned a lot from this humble scholar, Kotkin. It's always a pleasure to listen to someone who is a Master of his subject. What clarity! Thanks!

  • @choudharya1234
    @choudharya1234 7 місяців тому +17

    Like this guy. good voice

    • @DJ_Gadfly
      @DJ_Gadfly 7 місяців тому +2

      Academic Joe Pesci

  • @peterwhite7428
    @peterwhite7428 6 місяців тому +1

    Always the most informed and articulate voice about Russia

  • @VoidAspect
    @VoidAspect 7 місяців тому +6

    Excellent insight from Stephen

  • @bernardzsikla5640
    @bernardzsikla5640 7 місяців тому +22

    My favorite content on UA-cam is anything Stephen Kotkin does, yet I don't agree with one significant point regarding sanctions and their effects. Russia society is paying a cost with Western sanctions. It effects their economy as a whole and it effects every strata of Russian society. It will turn Russia as a technology wasteland at the worse time maybe in history, where western democracies/free market economies are soon to make the jump into the AI age. Ukraine doesn't have to win on the battlefield because Russia as a state and as a people has already lost.

    • @user-sq5bw2fc4n
      @user-sq5bw2fc4n 7 місяців тому

      And the long term Putin effect: Putin has damaged the trust necessary to have binding agreements of any sort, by burning all of bridges necessary for relations with the west. Even if an negotiated peace is found, it is only a matter of time before Putin will break it. The question then becomes can Russia become a trustworthy partner after Putin? This is one question Stephen dances around. I agree the west needs to express the objectives much more clearly, so that China and passive enablers of Putin wake up and choose not to stand with Putin.

    • @clancywiggam
      @clancywiggam 7 місяців тому +2

      I agree. I hope you are right!

  • @luminyam6145
    @luminyam6145 7 місяців тому +2

    This is the first time I have listened to this man and already I love him.💖

  • @warmaps78
    @warmaps78 7 місяців тому +9

    Yes! Stephen Kotkin, time to make food and watch

  • @jmmasedotmicah
    @jmmasedotmicah 7 місяців тому +12

    Kotkin's insight is always illuminating. more of him for the benefit of all.

  • @anthonyduval3191
    @anthonyduval3191 7 місяців тому +7

    I love kotkin so much, used to follow him befire the war and hes so relevant right now

  • @richardhouser508
    @richardhouser508 7 місяців тому +14

    Like so many people, I love listening to Stephen Kotkin declaiming on current events, politics, world history, and human nature. He is full of insights and surprises! I wish he would run for U. S. President!

  • @philaman1972
    @philaman1972 2 місяці тому

    Prof. Kotkin is always a fountain of knowledge.

  • @Jason-ke1oi
    @Jason-ke1oi 7 місяців тому +21

    Thank you Mrs Kotkin. Thanks to FA`s staff members.

  • @marttivallila
    @marttivallila 6 місяців тому +1

    This is a brilliant discussion that accurately describes the global situation we find ourselves in. The biggest variable going forward in my judgment is the quality of American leadership, and this is the area in which there is the greatest uncertainty.

  • @jeffheiner
    @jeffheiner 7 місяців тому +19

    Thank you for sharing this excellent analysis! I really enjoyed all your points of view and realism on the Russia situation.

  • @sergiubesliu4168
    @sergiubesliu4168 7 місяців тому +6

    Mr.Kotkin is marvelous! Thanks Foreign Affairs for this wonderful talk!

  • @rodcharles2798
    @rodcharles2798 6 місяців тому +4

    Putin wins the NATO recruitment award.

  • @nilaychaturvedi5243
    @nilaychaturvedi5243 7 місяців тому +3

    Even if one doesn't agree wth everything that Mr Kotkin says one hS to admire his breadth of thought nd the simple fact that he inspires you to think. 👍

  • @doitdiddy
    @doitdiddy 7 місяців тому +3

    Always a pleasure to hear from Steven Kotkin.

  • @jl8217
    @jl8217 7 місяців тому +2

    Mr. Kotkin always has something insightful to say, he is great!

  • @joiedevie3901
    @joiedevie3901 7 місяців тому +21

    Absolutely BRILLIANT! Anyone knowing both Russia and France must find Kotkin's perspicacity in drawing the parallel between the two nations remarkably sublime and piercing. His observations are profound while also leaving one slapping one's own forehead for how obvious they seem--after, of course, he says them. Wish that he could have the White House's ear, whoever resides there, to provide insight into that unique nation. De Tocqueville, like Kotkin, nailed it in his observation about Russia and America and the parallel roles they would play in the world's destiny. Kotkin carries on in that great tradition of analysis and understanding.
    Thank you, Foreign affairs. Can't wait to read Kotkin's article!

  • @Caylynmillard
    @Caylynmillard 7 місяців тому +13

    Love the Kotkin. He’s like the Yoda of Hoover Inst.

  • @desmcharris
    @desmcharris 7 місяців тому +1

    Remarkable! Brilliant! Sane! What a fantastic interview. Great question's. Thank you .

  • @markgemmell3769
    @markgemmell3769 7 місяців тому +2

    Spectacular interview. Many thanks for this to all involved.

  • @augustaj3952
    @augustaj3952 7 місяців тому +6

    Thank you ☆

  • @shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402
    @shokuchideirdrecarrigan7402 7 місяців тому +2

    Clarity!! And the administration’s lack of it. So true. Very important observation!

  • @mat3714
    @mat3714 7 місяців тому +9

    This is my exact position....stop trying to analyze putin's mind and "real" projects. Just act on what he's doing and telling. Again, another great talk with a great guy.

  • @caroledepould-newmark9898
    @caroledepould-newmark9898 7 місяців тому +1

    Unbelievably insightful and presented for the average listener. 50:51

  • @sven-gunnarappel8320
    @sven-gunnarappel8320 7 місяців тому +14

    I'm not so sure that Russia is alone. How will the BRICS countries develop?
    We may have to start seeing the world with new eyes. What role will the global West have in the future?

  • @DamBevers
    @DamBevers 7 місяців тому +3

    Great talk. I think Mr. Kotkin is missing an important point: You cannot attribute much historical motivations to a people when it’s just one dictator controlling the country. China’s and Russia’s great history is not what drives its government or economy. It’s a dictator and a few collaborators that call all the shots. At the top of their priorities is self preservation and gaining more wealth. They use their peoples’ history as an excuse to make geopolitical moves.
    This same conflicting of national representation with dictators, more akin to organised crime, has been the downfall of democracies everywhere, and has to stop. The world will not be a safe and healthy place to live until the democracies eradicate dictatorships and enact a global citizen policy, removing passport restrictions and equalising humans of every origin and ethnicity.

  • @JamesKonzek-xr5zy
    @JamesKonzek-xr5zy 7 місяців тому +1

    I like Kotkin. Kotkin is our friend.

  • @john1425
    @john1425 7 місяців тому +5

    What do we have to do to get a Kotkin-Mearsheimer discussion??

  • @davidpitchford6510
    @davidpitchford6510 6 місяців тому

    Excellent, non-intrusive, helpful examiner. Stephen Kotkin is the best of the best as always.

  • @wseam1
    @wseam1 7 місяців тому +1

    Stephen is always incredibly insightful. Great interview.

  • @Dougohere
    @Dougohere 7 місяців тому +8

    Winning the peace with Putin by allowing him to keep annexed territory is just a wonderful gift to your brutal invader. He can then build up his economy over the next few years, but for Russia that means their war economy. Weapons and arms would also be built up to ensure outright victory on the next attempt to Russify the whole of Ukraine. Putin had made it clear on many occasions that he does not recognise Ukraine as a country, but that it can only be regarded as a part of Russia as it was.

  • @amandacollyer645
    @amandacollyer645 7 місяців тому +1

    Great guest; I always learn from Kotkin

  • @l.u.rehuher3714
    @l.u.rehuher3714 7 місяців тому +1

    Insightful interview from FA as always

  • @sillyfolkers1318
    @sillyfolkers1318 7 місяців тому +1

    Insightful instructive and clear. Thanks!

  • @Azo-MA
    @Azo-MA 6 місяців тому +1

    I modestly disagree that Ukraine-Russian war will end. It will not end, it will freeze that is when neither side thinks can gain more with tolerable cost or, worse, risking its current position.

  • @janazikmundova6794
    @janazikmundova6794 7 місяців тому +4

    Prof Kotkin's commitment to clarity is so helpful in today's jungle of ideas about Russia.

  • @John_13_35
    @John_13_35 7 місяців тому +1

    Appreciate Kotkins work!

  • @johnnydawson7675
    @johnnydawson7675 7 місяців тому +2

    Thank you, Professor, for letting us know that you are going to wrap up Stalin, Volume Three!

  • @mythosboy
    @mythosboy 7 місяців тому +3

    Fantastic: Kotkin is up to his usual Olympian standards. He sketches a more convincing, if provisional, victory of the West than Fukuyama did 30 years ago. Hopeful, but realistic.

  • @yordan9669
    @yordan9669 6 місяців тому +1

    Actually a great analysis! I am positively surprised!

  • @iancurtis1152
    @iancurtis1152 7 місяців тому +10

    A very balanced commentary on political affairs both present and past.
    Great to hear.

  • @williammorris584
    @williammorris584 7 місяців тому +1

    Superb interview.

  • @chriwa6830
    @chriwa6830 7 місяців тому +14

    It really is annoying how the otherwise very respectable Kotkin keeps holding on to the illusion that Russia is willing - or even able to something like open negotiations and reliable results. Very misleading indeed.

  • @yucafries7681
    @yucafries7681 6 місяців тому +1

    As described, the west is an engine of development and prosperity. The U.S. may have done a lot of heavy lifting to spread the western way of life but others can also carry the flag

  • @nathanngumi8467
    @nathanngumi8467 7 місяців тому +1

    A great interview!

  • @peredavi
    @peredavi 6 місяців тому

    Always fascinating listening to Kotkin. Genius.

  • @CharlieNickell
    @CharlieNickell 7 місяців тому +1

    Nice piece. Stephen is sharp!

  • @johndewey6358
    @johndewey6358 7 місяців тому +1

    Excellent review, I agree with most of the analysis❤. I wish the same type of interview could be done with Prof Kotkin about Iran and the future of Iran and its reliance on Russia and China.

  • @adriandis
    @adriandis 7 місяців тому +1

    This was fantastic! Thank you

  • @DiversDesign
    @DiversDesign 7 місяців тому +3

    I'm not really sure why mr Kotkin thinks russia would hold to any "peace agreement" that does not give them all or most of what they demand, why would they keep to that agreement even if they gained what they demand, or why he thinks such a "peace" that allows Ukraine to keep its sovereignty or ability to eventually join NATO is even any kind of an option. Its like thinking isis will keep to some agreement. In perpetuity. Considering all he knows about russia, which he explains in several great videos... this idea of "winning the peace" by loosing the war, or conceding defeat in any amounts, is surprisingly weird and even practically delusional.

  • @producer2123
    @producer2123 7 місяців тому +5

    Great interview. Foreign Affairs is superb. Even the promo music is elegant. Thank you!

  • @DaboooogA
    @DaboooogA 6 місяців тому

    Great discussion, particularly Kotkin's thoughts on the Korean question.

  • @vredchenko
    @vredchenko 7 місяців тому +16

    Humorous to hear "russia" and "deal" in the same sentence.

  • @tsentenari4353
    @tsentenari4353 2 місяці тому

    Question (as a layman), for anyone who shares Stephen Kotkin's position on not (unnecessarily) taking regime change off the table:
    If you use the threat of regime change as leverage, and successfully demonstrated your capacities by helping building up alternatives, supply them with relevant information, and what have you; and the authoritarian responds to that, by offering you a lot of what you wanted
    -
    what happens to the people you have been backing?
    Do you just drop them?
    It would seem that you have to do something along those lines, to make the authoritarian regime be willing to strike a deal - no?
    Stephen Kotkins suggestion does sound very compelling to me - except for the fact that I don't know how to answer this question.

  • @kevinalmgren8332
    @kevinalmgren8332 4 місяці тому +1

    Kotkin often has a lot of great insight about Russia, but I think he misses the mark on Ukraine- why would they trust a peace agreement with Russia when Russia has broken them repeatedly?
    Continued aid to Ukraine is vital for world peace. Ukraine is one of the few countries with nuclear weapons to have de-nuclearized. If we want a world where nuclear weapons are off the table, we need to be willing to respect the treaties made with states that disarm their nuclear weapons.

  • @martinhuntley5342
    @martinhuntley5342 7 місяців тому

    Stephen provides the best thought out political analysis of both the situation in Ukraine and the global realities that I have ever heard…….should be in every President’s think tanks……..

  • @cutcut1980
    @cutcut1980 7 місяців тому +4

    Stephen Kotkin: Automatic thumbs up 🎉🎉🎉

  • @TheWildEntrepreneur
    @TheWildEntrepreneur 7 місяців тому

    Awesome interview 👏👏👏

  • @jackominty3633
    @jackominty3633 7 місяців тому +8

    I've lost a lot of respect for Kotkin over Ukraine. He doesn't seem to have a problem with the Monroe Doctrine, but it's ok for Russia's enemies to install ICB Missiles in Ukraine - Russia's Siamese Twin.

  • @patrickshanley4466
    @patrickshanley4466 7 місяців тому +2

    Not as good as kotkins usual. But really looking forward to his THIRD book on Stalin. 👨‍🚒

  • @treesetc3305
    @treesetc3305 7 місяців тому

    This was an absolutely brilliant and enlightening discussion.

  • @vplatonova
    @vplatonova 7 місяців тому +3

    Since when capitulation is seen as ending the war "on favourable terms"???

  • @AstralLice83
    @AstralLice83 6 місяців тому +1

    I dont agree with Kotkin point of view about Russia turning into North Korea. Russia is Europe, genetically, culturally and historically. The North Korean regime is built on the ideas of social equality, leaderism, which they wanted in the 50s. Russian autocracy is built on resentment and imperial grandeur. Even if we compare Russia with all dictatorships, such as China, Iran, Somalia, and North Korea, Russia remains the most liberal of them, simply because of the availability of free access to the Internet. In addition, it is worth noting that even hardcore supporter of Putin in Russia is well aware of corruption and theft, plus he would never live like a North Korean eating three bowls of rice and corn a day.

  • @wendykelling7738
    @wendykelling7738 7 місяців тому +3

    Listening to this I got a glimpse of something I hadn't quite seen before - Putin seems obsessed with getting rid of all in the world who do not back him. I couldn't figure before why he seemed unperturbed at people fleeing from Russia but I guess they fit into the category of people he has got rid of?
    So good to hear Prof Kotkin's calm and wisdom. Thank you for good questions.

  • @alex-x7u
    @alex-x7u 6 місяців тому

    stephen is a legend

  • @ThaFunkster100
    @ThaFunkster100 7 місяців тому

    Very interesting discussion, subscribed!