Nov 10 2023 Iceland update video
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- Опубліковано 28 лип 2024
- A Nov 10, 2023 update from geology professor Shawn Willsey. We will look at recent seismic and GPS data, including a significant shift in location of quakes. We also discuss latest developments, possible scenarios, and mitigation strategies.
Quake info: vafri.is/quake/
Iceland webcam near Blue Lagoon: livefromiceland.is/webcams/sv...
Iceland webcam looking east toward Sundhnukur craters: livefromiceland.is/webcams/fa...
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I was staying at the Blue Lagoon Retreat Hotel when those big ones hit a few days ago. There was one 5.0 that night. It was very scary, decor was falling and things were breaking everywhere in our room, in the lobby, etc. The windows were curving we thought those were going to break too. Eventually around 3 AM we left. Many people left, it says 30 in reports but it was way more and got a hotel in reykjavik for the night.. I do not want to experience that again it was terrifying.
close earthquakes are trippy. I was near the Long Valley Caldera during one of the episodes and had a 5-something go off right under us. It was violent and also very short! Bang wub wub wub done, p waves s waves t waves all at the same time
I'm very sorry you had to go through that! Hopefully you'll feel better soon.
Yes earthquakes are horrible. All houses here in Iceland are builded in very strong way and don't brake in the quakes. But still always horrible. I hope you feel better now. Best regards from Reykjavik now. (me myself is scared today)
@@AlmaGumundsdottir-gz1ikplease stay safe, Alma. 🙏🙏🙏
@@confuseatronica In all the time I'd spent at Mammoth Lakes I never once was there for any of their 5.0+ earthquakes. Luck o' the draw, I guess.
I adore Iceland, I’ve been 3 times, it’s just magical ✨
Very informative update thank you. I was staying at the Blue Lagoon on Sunday Nov 5, and you could absolutely feel the shakes, probably 8-10 during the day I was there. Think the biggest during that time was 4.2, with another at 3.5. One of those woke me up. They are quite quick, but very noticeable. Next day there was some work happening on the roof of the hotel. Perhaps regular maintenance, but perhaps damage too.
Just Icelandic just did an update. Things really appear to be progressing. He has some fabulous drone footage showing the areas that are likely to be affected.
I admit worrying about Grindavik,please 🙏😢
Thoughts & prayers with the people of Grindavik 💖
Thank you for caring 😢
Thoughts and prayers with all those affected in Iceland, from the U.S.💙🙏🇺🇸
Makes me feel like the magma is something living & purposeful, along the lines of the Hawaiian goddess Pele. Would be interesting to know what Icelandic legends are about eruptions. Thank you Shawn for a calm & informative analysis.
Thanks Shawn! Super interesting, but hope if it erupts there will be minimal damage.
Thanks for all of your work!
The quakes are going through the roof atm, the webcams are shaking constantly, and the blue lagoon road to Grindavik has been closed now
Yeah I noticed the webcam shaking right after I finished the video. Things are ramping up now.
Thanks for this thorough update Shawn. Very informative!
The movement of swarms is amazing. Thats a large area and quite a distance from the previous swarms. Kinda scary the amount of magma moving around not far from the surface.
Well done Shawn. I'm following this with great interest. If anyone knows how to deal with these effusive eruptions it's Icelanders. Trying to divert a lava flow is a herculean task but it _has_ been done before. Chief concern is whether this Sundhnukur fissure winds up being the focus of the impending eruption, only because on its NW side you can plainly see a 200 slope on that side that runs between the two larger craters and is pointed directly at the power plant and Blue Lagoon, and there was an older lava flow that made its way to the bottom of that slope. The fact that it has clearly happened before means that remains a distinct possible hazard.
Sending prayers from Texas.❤
Thank you for these videos.
Thanks for the update. I was in Iceland in May and hope for the best for them. I can tell from Facebook, this is quite different from the previous 3 eruptions.
You. Make All Your Choices Wisely.
Thanks Shawn , I have been sharing your Work.
Thanks for the update!
Thanks for the website. Looking at this site 6 hours after your post. Now all the activity is west and west-southwest of Grindavik.
Thanks for the updates, and I love the Iceland jersey -- looking good!
Thanks. I wanted to show my support and solidarity.
Appreciate this, Dr. Willsey
thank you for sharing your knowledge.
As always, Your video is interesting, exciting And extremely educational
Thankyou for the updates
Uh, I just checked the earthquake map you were showing, and the earthquakes have migrated to beneath the town and just southeast 😱
Thank you for the update, Shawn.
Yes, I've been watching this too since I did the video this morning. A very dynamic situation.
Will be interested in seeing the newest uplift data and how it may have changed
thank you for your video. It breaks down what is happening in understandable manner. We are due to arrive in Iceland in a few days. So updates on news are of interest.
Really interesting update. Thanks
Thanks of course, You're giving the most exciting and precise 3D overview of this unfolding (leaking) giant event, all these possibilities are good to understand-
Hello Shawn,
Thanks a lot for your interesting video.
I think I can give you a pretty accurate idea of where these cracks in the road are.
Near the top left corner of the photograph you showed at around 13:06 in the video, there is steam visible, most likely from the Svartsengi power plant.
So I checked Google Maps, and found that it must be about 1 km south of that power plant.
(approx. 63.868443022782536, -22.423333912112543)
I also checked streetview there, and the northward view seems to match with the picture in your video.
Intersting, thanks. Spa got closed earlier today.
I’m quite concerned about the people around the fishing village and their infrastructure. Thanks for the videos.
Would love to see a rolling 6-hour distribution of the centers of the quakes.
Thanks!
The challenge in being proactive here is that if you don't know for sure where the eruption will take place you can squander your efforts and then be left 'responding' just as you might if you took reactive response as your primary strategy. For example, going on the idea that the eruption would take place west of the Blue Lagoon one might begin to build a lava diversion berm to channel the flow west of Grindavik, but now that the eruption location appears to have moved 2-2.5km eastward any work on a lava diversion berm to the west would not likely help given the new location.
What they probably should do is begin building an upside down 'U' shaped berm to protect Grindavik and then, depending on where the eruption actually occurs, to build a berm, north of the 'U' shaped berm, to channel the lava west or east as needed.
Thanks, Shawn, for the great update. Could you please post a link to the earthquake info website you were using at the beginning of your presentation?
Done. And it is here also: vafri.is/quake/
Professor, try making your pointer extra large & solid filled
.
Would setting the window to dark, to make reading easier?
Thanks!
Another fantastic update on what's going on in Iceland. I like your comparison to hurricanes and how they are very different to volcanic eruptions. It really is the NOT knowing that makes it extra scary for the people living in the area. What should they do? Get out of the area now, or will everything potentially be okay at least for the foreseeable future?
Hard to say and opinions vary. If I lived there, I would stay put in Grindavik for now (and try to ride out quakes) but get valuables packed, have car gassed, and make arrangements if I need to stay somewhere else quickly. Basically, plan for the worst but hope for the best. A good mantra for many of life's issues.
Omg I couldn't live in Iceland I don't think. The shaking drives me literally insane. I was in California right before a Big One, and I was a mess, not knowing why. When I got back to Boston, landing on a solid rock, I felt fine. 2 days later the quake happened in CA. Quakes definitely affect us in ways that are hard to explain.
Thank you Shawn. Great information. Do you know if there is any public information what shows the temperature monitoring at the Blue Lagoon
I do not but the water at the Blue Lagoon is the "wastewater" from the power plant which comes from geothermal wells. The water there won't change temperature unless lava advances into the pools or the eruption is basically right under it.
the Fagradalsfjall cam is showing what may be a fissure eruption at 19:38 Icelandic time.
Seems the "uplift" area is quite large. Is it larger than areas in previous eruption events in the past few years?
Any good contour maps available on-line? There was a series of them for the last eruptions but they all stop about 5KM east of Grindavik
2 more quakes just now 20:17 GMT , Greetings from Reykjavik.
Do the faults you point out follow the mid Atlantic ridge, more or less NE/ SW? Regular fault or strike/ slip.
Road 43 is closed to do large earthquake cracked it up. Most earthquakes today than whole of month.
Hey Michael!..,All!..,😊
Thank you, it's fascinating to watch the different situations develop. Is it common for magma to change location as this has? There are more sensor placements, that must give a clearer picture.
Also, would water not be such a potential explosive problem in its newer direction?
I'm very interested in subglacial evidence and possibilities.
Love the updates! 👌🏼❣️
Yes, subsurface magma movement is very common. The 2018 eruption in Hawaii comes to mind where magma vacated the summit reservoir (where it had resided for many years) and moved down the East Rift Zone and erupted in the Leilani Estates subdivision. I've done some videos on subglacial eruptions in Iceland. Best place to find these is the Iceland playlist: ua-cam.com/play/PLOf4plee9UzAVyyMEtRTNg2eytaZfkpQO.html
@@shawnwillsey ah, definitely will watch these again as I have new questions. This is awesome, Shawn!
Seems to me the moving earthquake centroid more likely represents delta pressure, not "moving magma."
Sublte, but important. Intruding magma is now cracking rock over here, while last read had it cracking rock over there.
That old intruding magma may have left there and moved east, or, it's still there, but instead of swelling up and cracking more rock, it's may now be a conduit for the eastward intrusion, but... still at... or even increased pressure, just... nor currently breaking new rock.
One key indicator may be comparative depths of the newer swarm versus the older swarm.
With both your first pair of GPS stations moving apart, you almost have to place your center of uplift between them... or... west of the main road.
Looks a lot like a lateral sill development that is still below the 4km depth threshold.
Yes, it is likely that it will need to move up again to a shallower level before it erupts, if it does.
Things changed fast!
I have so many questions...
Has there been any increase in the water temps or gas emissions near the power plant/blue lagoon? Can satellite(s) or ground station(s) see a increase in ground temp or is the magma still be too far below the ground?
As it gets higher, again, can satellite(s) or ground station(s) see an increasing ground temp? Then, can the earthquakes help "show" how the magma is moving? Just like earthquakes used to get an idea of a magma ploom and/or what is below the mantle?
That has to been such an amazing trip to be there and possibly see a volcano/rift eruption. I would enjoy being in a class of yours, if I was still in Southern Idaho.
Should have waited about 2 hours to make the video. Reykjanes peninsula is going crazy now at 18:45
Yeah, I literally wrapped this up, posted it, and then boom!
Can u plz.magnify alittle bit?
How big is this Volcano and where are they going to go in the middle of the night? What if the roads become blocked by debris or a crack formed in the road that can't be crossed by the cars. It's cold there too. Wouldn't they be safer in the town?
Is it just a simple magma intrusion that will stop before it reaches the surface?
Could be, but I think that's the less likely scenario.
most intrusions dont lead to eruptions in general
this seems to be a laterally moving sill which does not yet have a route to the surface. It could erupt or it could stall and solidify.
Have you been watching the activity in the Campi Flegrei region?
Not very closely.
Another commentator says there are both tectonic and volcanic earthquakes. Is this true and what is the relevance is so?
Good question!
Given the proximity to the previous swarm and the lack of quakes by the Blue Lagoon, it seems reasonable to interpret these as quakes related to magma movement.
Ie tectonic is plates moving volcanic is magma moving
the swarm is super intense now. and it seems they are averaging around 3kilometers depth now. perhaps magma is on its way up.
Yes, it has really picked up the last few hours.
@@shawnwillsey something i noticed in the GPS graph is a deflation event. perhaps this is an indication of a relocation or shifting of the magma fill zone. i am thinking that the Magma Sill, may have broke into a weak layer near those craters east of the main road, and the volume , while still increasing, was redistributed into this extra storage space. what is your thought on this though?
Most of the earthquakes in the past hour have been directly underneath Grindavik. Many around magnitude 4.
Yes, I have noticed quakes locations progressing SE toward town. Could be magma pushing through a pre-existing weakness.
Found the website you were showing that has data on the quakes, looks like in the last 30-60 minutes they are getting shallower. This is not good! Though I wonder at some of those reports of quakes at only 1 k, I am sure these are automated reports of raw data and not checked to make sure the data is clean yet.
Yes, and there is also a trend of quakes moving southeastward toward Grindavik. The magma may be pushing through fractures in that direction, breaking rock and generating quakes. Monitoring situation and may do another update tonight or tomorrow.
@@shawnwillsey Yes I noticed that as well. So worrying, sounds like people are getting out of Grindavik. As a Californian I can understand how unnerving it can be; like after a major quake here, feeling all the aftershocks. Praying for everyone's safety.
@@lauralyons8446the town is being evacuated right now
What I Like about Hwai'i is that your feet no freeze.
There have been 2 earthquakes in the last couple of hours 5.0 and a 5.1. Rt 43 is closed due to earthquake damage per RUV liveblog
Yes, it has picked up in terms of frequency and strength. You can see webcams shaking.
SO News here on UA-cam pointed out that we should be getting the solar wind increase/geomagnetic storm effects from the recent small CME that released straight at Earth, we in the US expecting the effects approx. Saturday night into Sunday.
How will that incoming space weather potentially affect the earthquake activity? The coronal hole that just passed Earth-facing position on Nov 6 - did the effects of that arriving about the 7th-8th influence the amount/intensity of tremors?
I'm trying to understand/learn how this activity is connected to the Sun's behavior.
But most importantly, I'm crossing my fingers for the safety of all the residents being affected and keeping them in my prayers that nothing happens near their town. Hopefully activity will calm down soon.
"I'm trying to understand/learn how this activity is connected to the Sun's behavior." - it's not. Iceland is among the most volcanic regions on this planet, which is a planet with many volcanoes. The Reykyanes peninsula is one large volcanic field that is building shield volcanoes.
@@TheDanEdwards ua-cam.com/play/PLHSoxioQtwZd1hLRmIP9WS9AI1PZCnsol.html
❤❤❤
Power plant could get a big boost. 🙃
Do we know what kind of lava it’ll be?
Basaltic lava. Low silica, hot, low viscosity.
@@shawnwillsey great, thanks!
❤
Factual info appreciated. My understanding is 2,000 visit Blue Lagoon a day. Overnight stay 1450-2200 Euros ( if i understood correctly)
The power plant is said able to run 24 hours by remote.
BUT, the entire pensilia gets all their heat and water from that source. Including the big airport. (There are 3 other airports)
Things could just as easily calm, only 'Mother Nature' decides.
Bty ck....YT RUV, 'GrapeVine' again loading vids. Excellent interview on site of Swedish Uppsala Unvi, Prof. Done on 8 Nov.
AAAAAGGGGGGGGH ! ! ! . . . Don't delay 2 minutes (22:09 - 23:58) to give the camera's key name.
🥰😃💯👍👍🌋
May Allah help the flora an fauna
shawn, hate to have to be the one to tell you this, but YOU are the Geologist, we rely on YOU to tell us where the lava is gonna erupt, NOT the other way around...glad we could have this talk
I love geology, love your channel. But um, um, um, um, um...
You graphics are outdated - there's a really big storm there now!
Indeed. Will probably do an updated video soon. Lots happening today.
It reminds me of waiting for a birth…..you KNOW it will happen, no doubt, the “contractions” are being monitored just waiting……
Thanks!
Thank you.