I really appreciate your support! Happy New Year to you as well! A trade or two seems like the most likely scenario for the Dodgers over the next month or so, especially if they want to make external additions like Tanner Scott, who is really good! Do you have any trade targets in mind, or are you looking for the Dodgers to clear up roster spots (either 40 or 26 man) to make room for a Tanner Scott? Curious what you think the best move for the Dodgers is moving forward, as I love to hear everyone's perspective.
@@AustinBru99 At this point in time, I just want to free up a spot or two to make room for Tanner Scott. We should give our prospects an opportunity to shine. If things don’t go as planned (e.g., prospects not performing up to par), we can make trades before the deadline to acquire a premier shortstop or center fielder. If Lux isn’t performing like he did in the second half of 2024, he should be included in a trade package to secure a top-tier shortstop or center fielder.
@@williamwu3327 Good stuff here, and Happy New Year! The only thing I’d caution you on is look at things from the perspective of other organizations. If Gavin Lux or one of the prospect struggles, would you be willing to give up your most valuable players to the Dodgers for players the Dodgers don’t want? You have to give something to get something good in return, which is why the Dodgers must make these decisions before we all are comfortable with them, otherwise top guys will not be available. Appreciate the thought! It would be amazing if Tanner Scott came to LA! He’s incredible!
Love your takes Austin. I still think the Dodgers should trade Muncy while they could get something for him. I'm so tired watching him trying to hit 800' home runs and striking out. A single's a run and moving a runner 90' with an out isn't in his vocabulary. Ya he hit 30hrs and 90 something rbi's but anyone hitting 5 or 6 on this team should have 150 rbi's with the talent that's ahead of him. A 270- 300 hitter with 20 hrs would be more productive and probably play better defense. You trade garbage and expect to get diamonds, they got to move some guys. You would save money in the long run and give the team more options by saying adios to Taylor. I love Rojas, if I had a son I would tell him to watch how he plays shortstop, he's so good, however he's 35 or so and will probably just play garbage time this year. Mookie at 2nd is probably his spot so forget this ss obsession, he could play 3rd with Kim at short and Edman at second, Freeman at 1st and trade for Robert Jr, that would be a great defensive team plus speed and lower the age of the team. I'll stop ranting. Happy New Year Austin this year should be a kick. P.S. Mookie would only have to take that long jog out to 3rd.
I really appreciate the support! Happy New Year! A lot of good takes here, and I genuinely appreciate feedback that disagrees with some of my takes in a respectful way. Makes me think about the game in a different way. I still think there is a lot of value in a player like Muncy, who is an imperfect and different kind of player. He is very much a three true outcomes hitter (walks, strikeouts, home runs), which is not everyone's favorite player. I totally get the sentiment of not liking that profile of player and wanting to move on. Arenado is an example of a completely different profile of player to Muncy, and it's fair to prefer that profile to Muncy's. In Max's defense, he has overall been valuable as a whole when you look at advanced offensive metrics (WAR, wRC+, expected statistics, etc). And, when he is one of the players on a reasonable deal, I think the Dodgers take their chances with him. You can have a couple of this type of profile in your lineup as long as not everyone is a three true outcome hitter. Just my opinion though, so you're more than welcome to disagree! As far as other players, I haven't been the biggest fan of Luis Robert Jr's profile, in which I see as high strikeouts, low walks, big power. I see that as being inconsistent at times. The difference between him and Muncy (besides slightly increased injury concerns with Robert) is the lows of Luis Robert will be lower than Muncy because Luis Robert will not be walking when he's not hitting like Muncy. I could be completely wrong with this, but I just worry about his profile of a hitter. Just my personal preference. I totally get the defensive position reasoning as to wanting him, as he moves Tommy Edman to the infield and frees up Betts to take a spot in the infield. I haven't heard Betts at 3B, which is a very interesting suggestion. I've always been under the assumption he should go to 2B, but perhaps there could be other options for him. The Dodgers had a club option for Miguel Rojas, which they picked up this season. I fully expect him to be on the club for at least the first half of the season until either a Ha-Seong Kim or Alex Freeland forces him out. Miggy Rojas is insurance at SS if things don't go well and the Dodgers have to pivot. CT3, unless traded, is likely going to receive every opportunity to get it back together, as this is the Dodgers' tendency towards veteran players that are established with the Dodgers. He doesn't have flexibility to be sent down if struggling, which is a downside of having almost exclusively veteran players. This is not necessarily what I prefer, rather what I think they will do. Let me know if there are any disagreements you have! Happy to continue this discussion!
@@AustinBru99 I love it Austin, I really enjoy bouncing ideas off of you. God Bless. If I was100 years younger I think you are the kind of guy I'd like to play catch with. LOL I get the Robert Jr. thing, it was just fill in the blank, any plus or plus, plus center fielder. My point is the Dodgers have a lot of talent they could move if they so desire. Robert Jr. looks a little soft so tightening things up could make him more durable. I think Mookie at 3rd makes a lot of sense, however he probably doesn't want anything to do with the hot corner, and you know, whatever Lola wants Lola gets.
Austin, good show and nice work on the projections sheets. I'm looking forward to digging into that specific sheet. At first glance I wonder if the innings projections are too conservative and the data support a case for moving some starting pitching. I think as things stand now, these innings projections makes sense because they serve the dual purpose of making sure your playoff caliber pitchers stay healthy and giving some of the younger pitchers a chance to develop at the big league level. If the Dodgers sign Sasaki they will have the dual goal of both developing him at the ML level and wanting to preserve the option of having him available for a role in the playoffs. I think a realistic question is, will Sasaki be subject to the up-down train? If I'm Joel Wolf, Sasaki's agent, I'm point blank asking this question. I think Sasaki will expect to develop at the ML level and if healthy (and not getting absolutely torched) and to do so across more than 70 innings. My incoming bias is that the Dodgers effectively have too much starting pitching depth and that it would make sense to trade some of it now. The 40 man roster is heavily impacted and more so if Sasaki and a veteran leverage reliever are signed as seems likely so there is no where to put the handful of pitching prospects that might be ML ready in 2025. Then by this time next season when you can anticipate needing space for Hurt, Sheehan, Ryan, and Stone at some point during the season, it become an even more gruesome proposition. I think there's a strong case to be made for trading some of the pitching depth (last year's injury disaster not withstanding). To which, I think it would be a fun exercise to crowd source some trade scenarios (both hitting and pitching) from the DD community in advance of a show and then analyze during a live stream or queue them up and analyze over several shows. I think the analysis sets up hypothetical pros and cons scenarios that take into account many of the roster challenges and development challenges that the show routinely discusses and forces viewers to consider the multiple layers that front offices are forced to consider.
Appreciate the comment and support as always, Jay! I was extremely cautious when projecting innings for players. There can be an increased innings projection for many of these guys. With that comes additional risk of injury, which does happen. It will be fun for you to go more in-depth into that spreadsheet, as you can compare your projections to past seasons, which should be to the right for 2021-2024. I tried to limit innings during regular season for guys and tried to be in-line with past seasons. It's also fair to project higher innings for some of the guys with options or give some of those innings to guys not on the 40 man roster yet (like Ferris, Karros, etc). Would be really interested to see how you project the innings, so let me know if you complete that spreadsheet and change it to what you think! There is room for trades, but I don't want to put too much stress on the arms. That's a great idea to talk about hypothetical trades on the show from the Dodgers Daily community. I am always happy to hear suggestions in the comments and bring that up on the show, so everyone is always welcome to give proposals down below. A fun idea for a show we could do! Happy New Year!
@@AustinBru99 Happy New Year to you too Austin. Thanks for the thoughtful response and for pointing me toward the historical innings to the far right on the projections tab. I see now why you've projected conservatively since it reflects a set of realities (preferences and injuries) over the last several years. The Dodgers have interspersed some guys in their rotations that have soaked up quite a few innings and starts such as Stone & Paxton last year or Anderson & Urias in 2022. Your projections reflect a reality that the Dodgers might use 13 starters this year a similar number to last year (for 910 projected starter innings not including any from Grove but including Sasaki). The Dodgers technically had 17 pitchers make starts in 2024 but got some opens from Banda, Honeywell, Braisier, Hernández, and unfortunately only one from Kyle Hurt. 2024 was an injury disaster, I want to say it was an outlier but the number of guys coming off major surgery in 2025 is significant. I think it's reasonable to ask what is the best way to model and project that returning from injury risk? Right now it is, admittedly, pure conjecture on our parts since we have no idea how their throwing programs etc. are going but I feel it's worth thinking about in the context of managing roster construction. My gut is that if Ohtani (50), Kershaw (40), and May (30) get the innings they are projected, then it means their injuries are persistent (obviously May could end up in the bullpen). Given that Ohtani will be 18 months removed from his second TJ, and threw 130 in his first season back from TJ1, I'd put the over under for regular season innings at 80 and take the over. Given that Kershaw is returning from significant but non arm/ elbow/ shoulder surgery as he was in 2024, I don't think the Dodgers are incentivized to baby him. Rather, I think the team would prefer that he assume the James Paxton type role of quality stabilizer. If Kershaw comes back I would think that he would assume that he'd be healthy enough to contribute more than 40 innings. I'd put the over under on Kershaw at 15 starts so 85 innings. I can't argue the projection on May, his health history has been unfortunate but if he's starting and gets 30 innings then his season also went off the rails again. Where I think the real surplus is for the Dodgers is that they will have 4-5 starters with options who need innings at the big league level to continue their developments (Knack, Miller, Casparius, Wrobleski, and Frasso). You would know better than me but it also seems like it would be on script for the Dodgers to consider at least one or two from the group at TUL for '25 debuts too in Karros, Heubeck, Campos, and Ferris. If the innings projections, collectively for the Ohtani, Kershaw, Sasaki, and May group are collectively under estimated then it seems likely the innings will come out of the group with options. To me, Knack-Casparius-Wrobleski are capable of throwing 100+ innings at the Major League level if needed and I think Miller's upside is playoff starter so if he's making progress and rebounding you have to find the innings that optimize his development. I think having 5 guys on the up down is like having depth for the depth which is what was needed last year but I think it's not optimal to plan for it this way. I'd prefer the depth for the depth to be Karros-Heubeck-Campos-Ferris. Put another way, if the Dodgers used Gonsolin or Knack as part of a package to acquire a very good to elite player at a position of need, would the outlook for the rotation change meaningfully? I don't think so because a reasonable probability scenario is that neither gets a playoff start in 2025 and the guys back filling those innings in the regular season are quality enough that the drop-off probably doesn't materially diminish the team's playoff odds.
@@JayO-wx3ej This is a really quality and thoughtful response, just about all of which I agree with! I can totally vary on some of the innings, but most of that depends on the health and progression of players, of which I have and will have no insight to. As a result, I want to be as safe as possible with the projections, which I think we both agree is fair. There certainly can be moderate changes to innings, and I hope some of the "core" pitchers can get more innings. As far as the "optionable" pitchers, one thing to keep in mind is there is a limitation to the number of "up and downs" instituted by the league. Per newer rules, a player can only be optioned down to the MiLB level 5 times during a given season, otherwise they must be subjected to waivers. You have to have sufficient depth down there be called up, and depending on how they utilize the depth will determine how much they need. They all certainly have a TON of talent and deserve big league opportunities, so I will never be against a player getting that big league opportunity. This is especially true if you can get an impact bat at a position of need. There could always be innings to other guys at the lower levels or from "designatable" arms. The team maps out the number of innings and how to get there, but given recent injuries, I think they should be extra cautious. They will also have to be "creative" to get to the optioned guys, as most guys will not have MiLB options on the MLB level. They must not wear out their arms during the regular season and not have them healthy ready for a 2nd consecutive long October run.
@@AustinBru99 In playing around with the hitter projections I've become more convinced that the Dodgers should try to innovate around load management. If the core group of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, and eventually Smith were willing to take 10-15% fewer PAs than even your model projects it would open up significant development lanes for younger players while also keeping the aging stars healthy and fresher for October. As you noted last night the bench would need to be restructured so yes, it's a sincere thank you and goodbye to both Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez. The risks you and Casey have been talking about with regard to option years for position players highlight the urgency. Pages and Outman either need real runway or to be traded before their options expire and their value diminishes. I was mentioning to Casey that the Dodgers got lucky in a sense with Vargas that they were able to include him in a trade that netted the team Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech. The Dodgers would be in a real pickle if he were still on the 40. I'm not saying they will do this but I would like to see the Dodgers commit to finding a process to develop position players at the MLB level that is stable and predictable for them.
Hi Austin with the Dodgers going with 6 man rotation( That's 27 starts per rotation spot and barring no injuries of Snell, Glasnow ,Yamamoto they will get 27 and at 5 innings per start that's 135 innings each I'm guessing Ohtani and Kershaw will get 18-20 starts so that leaves 27 starts for the 6th spot ( Sasaki) 14-16 for the 4th and 5th spots combined so maybe a total of 43 starts to divide between Gonsolin, May( if not in bullpen) and the 5 guys on the projected AAA roster. All but May can do the up down train so that's around 7 starts each and if you go in 3 week intervals this works ( when they go back down I think minimum stay is 15 days). So with Dodgers keeping guys around 5 inning or 90 pitches you will need at least 2 guys that can go multiple innings in the pen and or the starters will need to go longer to not overwork your bull pen. What are the best Pen arms we have not already on 40 man roster to come up and help ( Gamboa, Kopp ) others?
This is an incredibly well thought out comment, and I think your conclusion that length will be needed out of the bullpen to make a 6 man rotation work is absolutely necessary! If they don't have that, either the starters or bullpen arms (or both) will get worn out, which is the worst case scenario. In my projections, I went with an innings-based projection. I didn't do it by number of starts, as I think the Dodgers are likely worried about the number of innings pitchers throw (actually, number of pitches on a smaller scale). To limit the number of innings without the necessary flexibility on the roster, there likely will be some "creative" rest periods for some of these guys. How that comes about will depend on how the season is going. I think the games projections you outlined are ideal if things go right, but the plan seems to never go completely right. They need guys they can turn to when things go right, and the Dodgers have some incredible depth at the farm system who could be starters (or big league regulars) on a lot of other teams. A gift for the Dodgers, a bit of a mixed bag for these prospects. When it comes to the other innings to fill, the first spots will be given to the younger guys in the system. The next will likely be given to guys on minor league deals who could be designated for assignment without the Dodgers feeling like they are losing a prospect from the system. They have a history of doing so. The question about other arms in the system that could be called up (not on 40 man) is very interesting, and I really like it! For this section, I will be looking at guys who are Rule 5 eligible after the 2025 season in which they feel like they will have to protect them soon, as those are the most likely to get opportunities after the guys mentioned (not a lot of opportunities for these guys, but potentially some innings). This list is also not comprehensive, so I apologize to the names I missed. Jose Rodriguez - One of the biggest swing and miss guys in the system, RHP, can start or provide bulk innings. If he makes a quick adjustment to Double A, he could be on the fast-track to LA. We saw Justin Wrobleski end the 2023 in High A Great Lakes and by July 2024 be with LA. That could happen to Jose, especially if they need length out of the pen. Is currently Rule 5 eligible. Jared Karros - A more traditional starter, he was beyond excellent in a vast majority of his outings in recent years. He out dueled Jackson Jobe twice to eliminate Jobe and the Whitecaps in 2023, and has one of the best curveballs in baseball. If healthy, he is going to be knocking on the door this year and is Rule 5 eligible after this season. Lucas Wepf - A bit of a funky RH reliever, he was dominant at many times out of the pen in the MiLB level. Likely not a multi-inning reliever, he did provide multi-inning outings this past season. Usually pitching in high-leverage situations. Big-time swing and miss, if he can make the adjustments he made returning to Tulsa like he did in Great Lakes and regains control, he will be knocking on the door. Rule 5 eligible after 2025. Those are just three under the radar names to keep an eye on. So many other names to watch out for (Ferris, Kopp, Gamboa, Boyer, Duran, Knowles, etc), so it will be fun to watch the development of them! Appreciate the comment and support! Happy New Year!
Nice analysis Helen B.! The average innings per start in MLB (including those with openers) was 5.25 innings. So I think your assumptions there are in line with league norms but I also think the Dodgers realize that they need to try to get length out of their starters for the reasons you note regarding a 6 man rotation. They failed last year and got 4.92 (per Statmuse) which was good for 21st in MLB where unsurprisingly the Seattle Mariners were #1 at 5.82 IP/GS. As Austin reminded on the show yesterday evening the overall pitching stats were (uncharacteristically) not great for the Dodgers last year. It'll be fascinating to see how all of the innings and starts get distributed in 2025. I tend to also be bullish on the regular season innings and starts for Ohtani and Kerhsaw.
Pages will start in RF and Conforto will play the Kiermaier role while Hernandez will stay in LF. You are way too high on Conforto and Edmond will also play a lot of infield as well as CF
I appreciate the feedback and support for the channel! I do disagree about Conforto in the Kiermaier role. Kiermaier, at the point in his career, as a defensive replacement outfielder who could fill in at centerfield when needed and didn't need to play everyday. There are a lot of elements of Conforto's profile that do not scream this. The first element is his lack of ability to play CF. Last year, he played exclusively LF. He played some RF in 2023. The last time he ever played CF in MLB was 2019. I don't believe he will be an option in CF. There were other players available for cheaper contracts that could have filled the Kiermaier role of defense-first part time player, but that has not been the player Conforto is. He is below average defensively, meaning the Dodgers got him for his bat. The past couple of seasons, he's has around 475 plate appearances, which is a near full-time role. I believe this is in line with the type of contract the Dodgers paid him at $17 million dollars, so I think he is likely to receive around that many plate appearances. I think the worst case scenario role for him (assuming he doesn't live up to his contract) would be a platoon bat with Andy Pages, where Conforto faces RHP and Pages faces LHP. However, I think they paid him to be more than that, and I don't see Teoscar (the other corner OF) receiving less playing time if healthy. Thus, it is my belief that the only real way for Pages to get any real playing time with Teoscar playing 150 games+ in corner outfield and Conforto playing 130 games+ is in CF, which is currently locked down by Tommy Edman. Sure, Edman has the ability to play up the middle, which could be an option. I am just concerned with the outfield defense of Conforto Pages Teoscar, all of which I evaluate as below average in their respective positions (Conforto in LF, Pages in CF, Teoscar in RF). With those 3 outfielders out there, Pages is the only person who will play CF. There is no more real playing time in the corners on a full-time basis. I am incredibly high on Pages, which is why I've stated I want him to be a starting corner outfielder in 2025 on multiple occasions. However, the Dodgers are the ones who are incredibly high on Conforto (paid him $17 million for a reason when they could have filled the Kiermaier role with Tauchman for less than $2 million), Teoscar, and Tommy Edman. As a result of the Dodgers' decisions, I have to evaluate what choices they are making and how the roster fits into their decisions. My opinion ultimately comes from what the Dodgers do and where they are likely to go next. As a result of good decisions the Dodgers have made, I see a very limited - to - no role for Pages in 2025, which will vastly diminish his value to LA and other organizations. He's a really good player and deserves opportunities, so that really bums me out for him and as a fan of wanting the Dodgers to get the most out of their players, either on the field or with trades. I don't want to see the career of Andy Pages wasted on the bench. Hopefully this goes to further explain my opinion and why I state what I did on the show! Let me know where there is areas of disagreement, and we are more than welcome to continue this discussion! I'm always happy to change my opinion if something else makes sense or just hear other perspectives. There are many ways to go about this, which makes it fun and engaging. Happy New Year!
Austin, good analysis and thanks for all the work put into this.
I appreciate it! Happy New Year to you! God Bless!
Thank you Austin for a great analysis. Happy New Year. Hopefully, some trades will happen; otherwise, Tanner Scott might not be signed by the Dodgers.
I really appreciate your support! Happy New Year to you as well!
A trade or two seems like the most likely scenario for the Dodgers over the next month or so, especially if they want to make external additions like Tanner Scott, who is really good! Do you have any trade targets in mind, or are you looking for the Dodgers to clear up roster spots (either 40 or 26 man) to make room for a Tanner Scott? Curious what you think the best move for the Dodgers is moving forward, as I love to hear everyone's perspective.
@@AustinBru99 At this point in time, I just want to free up a spot or two to make room for Tanner Scott. We should give our prospects an opportunity to shine. If things don’t go as planned (e.g., prospects not performing up to par), we can make trades before the deadline to acquire a premier shortstop or center fielder. If Lux isn’t performing like he did in the second half of 2024, he should be included in a trade package to secure a top-tier shortstop or center fielder.
@@williamwu3327 Good stuff here, and Happy New Year! The only thing I’d caution you on is look at things from the perspective of other organizations. If Gavin Lux or one of the prospect struggles, would you be willing to give up your most valuable players to the Dodgers for players the Dodgers don’t want? You have to give something to get something good in return, which is why the Dodgers must make these decisions before we all are comfortable with them, otherwise top guys will not be available.
Appreciate the thought! It would be amazing if Tanner Scott came to LA! He’s incredible!
Thanks for your hard work Austin!
Appreciate it, Noah!
Thanks Austin
Appreciate your support as always, Craig! Happy New Year!
Love your takes Austin. I still think the Dodgers should trade Muncy while they could get something for him. I'm so tired watching him trying to hit 800' home runs and striking out. A single's a run and moving a runner 90' with an out isn't in his vocabulary. Ya he hit 30hrs and 90 something rbi's but anyone hitting 5 or 6 on this team should have 150 rbi's with the talent that's ahead of him. A 270- 300 hitter with 20 hrs would be more productive and probably play better defense. You trade garbage and expect to get diamonds, they got to move some guys. You would save money in the long run and give the team more options by saying adios to Taylor. I love Rojas, if I had a son I would tell him to watch how he plays shortstop, he's so good, however he's 35 or so and will probably just play garbage time this year. Mookie at 2nd is probably his spot so forget this ss obsession, he could play 3rd with Kim at short and Edman at second, Freeman at 1st and trade for Robert Jr, that would be a great defensive team plus speed and lower the age of the team. I'll stop ranting. Happy New Year Austin this year should be a kick. P.S. Mookie would only have to take that long jog out to 3rd.
I really appreciate the support! Happy New Year!
A lot of good takes here, and I genuinely appreciate feedback that disagrees with some of my takes in a respectful way. Makes me think about the game in a different way. I still think there is a lot of value in a player like Muncy, who is an imperfect and different kind of player. He is very much a three true outcomes hitter (walks, strikeouts, home runs), which is not everyone's favorite player. I totally get the sentiment of not liking that profile of player and wanting to move on. Arenado is an example of a completely different profile of player to Muncy, and it's fair to prefer that profile to Muncy's. In Max's defense, he has overall been valuable as a whole when you look at advanced offensive metrics (WAR, wRC+, expected statistics, etc). And, when he is one of the players on a reasonable deal, I think the Dodgers take their chances with him. You can have a couple of this type of profile in your lineup as long as not everyone is a three true outcome hitter. Just my opinion though, so you're more than welcome to disagree!
As far as other players, I haven't been the biggest fan of Luis Robert Jr's profile, in which I see as high strikeouts, low walks, big power. I see that as being inconsistent at times. The difference between him and Muncy (besides slightly increased injury concerns with Robert) is the lows of Luis Robert will be lower than Muncy because Luis Robert will not be walking when he's not hitting like Muncy. I could be completely wrong with this, but I just worry about his profile of a hitter. Just my personal preference. I totally get the defensive position reasoning as to wanting him, as he moves Tommy Edman to the infield and frees up Betts to take a spot in the infield. I haven't heard Betts at 3B, which is a very interesting suggestion. I've always been under the assumption he should go to 2B, but perhaps there could be other options for him.
The Dodgers had a club option for Miguel Rojas, which they picked up this season. I fully expect him to be on the club for at least the first half of the season until either a Ha-Seong Kim or Alex Freeland forces him out. Miggy Rojas is insurance at SS if things don't go well and the Dodgers have to pivot. CT3, unless traded, is likely going to receive every opportunity to get it back together, as this is the Dodgers' tendency towards veteran players that are established with the Dodgers. He doesn't have flexibility to be sent down if struggling, which is a downside of having almost exclusively veteran players. This is not necessarily what I prefer, rather what I think they will do.
Let me know if there are any disagreements you have! Happy to continue this discussion!
@@AustinBru99 I love it Austin, I really enjoy bouncing ideas off of you. God Bless. If I was100 years younger I think you are the kind of guy I'd like to play catch with. LOL I get the Robert Jr. thing, it was just fill in the blank, any plus or plus, plus center fielder. My point is the Dodgers have a lot of talent they could move if they so desire. Robert Jr. looks a little soft so tightening things up could make him more durable. I think Mookie at 3rd makes a lot of sense, however he probably doesn't want anything to do with the hot corner, and you know, whatever Lola wants Lola gets.
@@DaggerDog7 I totally got you and appreciate it! God bless, and Happy New Year!
Austin, good show and nice work on the projections sheets. I'm looking forward to digging into that specific sheet. At first glance I wonder if the innings projections are too conservative and the data support a case for moving some starting pitching. I think as things stand now, these innings projections makes sense because they serve the dual purpose of making sure your playoff caliber pitchers stay healthy and giving some of the younger pitchers a chance to develop at the big league level. If the Dodgers sign Sasaki they will have the dual goal of both developing him at the ML level and wanting to preserve the option of having him available for a role in the playoffs. I think a realistic question is, will Sasaki be subject to the up-down train? If I'm Joel Wolf, Sasaki's agent, I'm point blank asking this question. I think Sasaki will expect to develop at the ML level and if healthy (and not getting absolutely torched) and to do so across more than 70 innings. My incoming bias is that the Dodgers effectively have too much starting pitching depth and that it would make sense to trade some of it now. The 40 man roster is heavily impacted and more so if Sasaki and a veteran leverage reliever are signed as seems likely so there is no where to put the handful of pitching prospects that might be ML ready in 2025. Then by this time next season when you can anticipate needing space for Hurt, Sheehan, Ryan, and Stone at some point during the season, it become an even more gruesome proposition.
I think there's a strong case to be made for trading some of the pitching depth (last year's injury disaster not withstanding). To which, I think it would be a fun exercise to crowd source some trade scenarios (both hitting and pitching) from the DD community in advance of a show and then analyze during a live stream or queue them up and analyze over several shows. I think the analysis sets up hypothetical pros and cons scenarios that take into account many of the roster challenges and development challenges that the show routinely discusses and forces viewers to consider the multiple layers that front offices are forced to consider.
Please see my comment above this might change your mind about trading our pitching depth.
Appreciate the comment and support as always, Jay! I was extremely cautious when projecting innings for players. There can be an increased innings projection for many of these guys. With that comes additional risk of injury, which does happen. It will be fun for you to go more in-depth into that spreadsheet, as you can compare your projections to past seasons, which should be to the right for 2021-2024. I tried to limit innings during regular season for guys and tried to be in-line with past seasons. It's also fair to project higher innings for some of the guys with options or give some of those innings to guys not on the 40 man roster yet (like Ferris, Karros, etc). Would be really interested to see how you project the innings, so let me know if you complete that spreadsheet and change it to what you think! There is room for trades, but I don't want to put too much stress on the arms.
That's a great idea to talk about hypothetical trades on the show from the Dodgers Daily community. I am always happy to hear suggestions in the comments and bring that up on the show, so everyone is always welcome to give proposals down below. A fun idea for a show we could do!
Happy New Year!
@@AustinBru99 Happy New Year to you too Austin. Thanks for the thoughtful response and for pointing me toward the historical innings to the far right on the projections tab. I see now why you've projected conservatively since it reflects a set of realities (preferences and injuries) over the last several years. The Dodgers have interspersed some guys in their rotations that have soaked up quite a few innings and starts such as Stone & Paxton last year or Anderson & Urias in 2022.
Your projections reflect a reality that the Dodgers might use 13 starters this year a similar number to last year (for 910 projected starter innings not including any from Grove but including Sasaki). The Dodgers technically had 17 pitchers make starts in 2024 but got some opens from Banda, Honeywell, Braisier, Hernández, and unfortunately only one from Kyle Hurt. 2024 was an injury disaster, I want to say it was an outlier but the number of guys coming off major surgery in 2025 is significant. I think it's reasonable to ask what is the best way to model and project that returning from injury risk? Right now it is, admittedly, pure conjecture on our parts since we have no idea how their throwing programs etc. are going but I feel it's worth thinking about in the context of managing roster construction. My gut is that if Ohtani (50), Kershaw (40), and May (30) get the innings they are projected, then it means their injuries are persistent (obviously May could end up in the bullpen). Given that Ohtani will be 18 months removed from his second TJ, and threw 130 in his first season back from TJ1, I'd put the over under for regular season innings at 80 and take the over. Given that Kershaw is returning from significant but non arm/ elbow/ shoulder surgery as he was in 2024, I don't think the Dodgers are incentivized to baby him. Rather, I think the team would prefer that he assume the James Paxton type role of quality stabilizer. If Kershaw comes back I would think that he would assume that he'd be healthy enough to contribute more than 40 innings. I'd put the over under on Kershaw at 15 starts so 85 innings. I can't argue the projection on May, his health history has been unfortunate but if he's starting and gets 30 innings then his season also went off the rails again.
Where I think the real surplus is for the Dodgers is that they will have 4-5 starters with options who need innings at the big league level to continue their developments (Knack, Miller, Casparius, Wrobleski, and Frasso). You would know better than me but it also seems like it would be on script for the Dodgers to consider at least one or two from the group at TUL for '25 debuts too in Karros, Heubeck, Campos, and Ferris. If the innings projections, collectively for the Ohtani, Kershaw, Sasaki, and May group are collectively under estimated then it seems likely the innings will come out of the group with options. To me, Knack-Casparius-Wrobleski are capable of throwing 100+ innings at the Major League level if needed and I think Miller's upside is playoff starter so if he's making progress and rebounding you have to find the innings that optimize his development. I think having 5 guys on the up down is like having depth for the depth which is what was needed last year but I think it's not optimal to plan for it this way. I'd prefer the depth for the depth to be Karros-Heubeck-Campos-Ferris. Put another way, if the Dodgers used Gonsolin or Knack as part of a package to acquire a very good to elite player at a position of need, would the outlook for the rotation change meaningfully? I don't think so because a reasonable probability scenario is that neither gets a playoff start in 2025 and the guys back filling those innings in the regular season are quality enough that the drop-off probably doesn't materially diminish the team's playoff odds.
@@JayO-wx3ej This is a really quality and thoughtful response, just about all of which I agree with! I can totally vary on some of the innings, but most of that depends on the health and progression of players, of which I have and will have no insight to. As a result, I want to be as safe as possible with the projections, which I think we both agree is fair. There certainly can be moderate changes to innings, and I hope some of the "core" pitchers can get more innings.
As far as the "optionable" pitchers, one thing to keep in mind is there is a limitation to the number of "up and downs" instituted by the league. Per newer rules, a player can only be optioned down to the MiLB level 5 times during a given season, otherwise they must be subjected to waivers. You have to have sufficient depth down there be called up, and depending on how they utilize the depth will determine how much they need. They all certainly have a TON of talent and deserve big league opportunities, so I will never be against a player getting that big league opportunity. This is especially true if you can get an impact bat at a position of need. There could always be innings to other guys at the lower levels or from "designatable" arms. The team maps out the number of innings and how to get there, but given recent injuries, I think they should be extra cautious. They will also have to be "creative" to get to the optioned guys, as most guys will not have MiLB options on the MLB level. They must not wear out their arms during the regular season and not have them healthy ready for a 2nd consecutive long October run.
@@AustinBru99 In playing around with the hitter projections I've become more convinced that the Dodgers should try to innovate around load management. If the core group of Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, Muncy, and eventually Smith were willing to take 10-15% fewer PAs than even your model projects it would open up significant development lanes for younger players while also keeping the aging stars healthy and fresher for October. As you noted last night the bench would need to be restructured so yes, it's a sincere thank you and goodbye to both Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez. The risks you and Casey have been talking about with regard to option years for position players highlight the urgency. Pages and Outman either need real runway or to be traded before their options expire and their value diminishes. I was mentioning to Casey that the Dodgers got lucky in a sense with Vargas that they were able to include him in a trade that netted the team Tommy Edman and Michael Kopech. The Dodgers would be in a real pickle if he were still on the 40.
I'm not saying they will do this but I would like to see the Dodgers commit to finding a process to develop position players at the MLB level that is stable and predictable for them.
Hi Austin with the Dodgers going with 6 man rotation( That's 27 starts per rotation spot and barring no injuries of Snell, Glasnow ,Yamamoto they will get 27 and at 5 innings per start that's 135 innings each I'm guessing Ohtani and Kershaw will get 18-20 starts so that leaves 27 starts for the 6th spot ( Sasaki) 14-16 for the 4th and 5th spots combined so maybe a total of 43 starts to divide between Gonsolin, May( if not in bullpen) and the 5 guys on the projected AAA roster. All but May can do the up down train so that's around 7 starts each and if you go in 3 week intervals this works ( when they go back down I think minimum stay is 15 days). So with Dodgers keeping guys around 5 inning or 90 pitches you will need at least 2 guys that can go multiple innings in the pen and or the starters will need to go longer to not overwork your bull pen. What are the best Pen arms we have not already on 40 man roster to come up and help ( Gamboa, Kopp ) others?
This is an incredibly well thought out comment, and I think your conclusion that length will be needed out of the bullpen to make a 6 man rotation work is absolutely necessary! If they don't have that, either the starters or bullpen arms (or both) will get worn out, which is the worst case scenario.
In my projections, I went with an innings-based projection. I didn't do it by number of starts, as I think the Dodgers are likely worried about the number of innings pitchers throw (actually, number of pitches on a smaller scale). To limit the number of innings without the necessary flexibility on the roster, there likely will be some "creative" rest periods for some of these guys. How that comes about will depend on how the season is going. I think the games projections you outlined are ideal if things go right, but the plan seems to never go completely right. They need guys they can turn to when things go right, and the Dodgers have some incredible depth at the farm system who could be starters (or big league regulars) on a lot of other teams. A gift for the Dodgers, a bit of a mixed bag for these prospects.
When it comes to the other innings to fill, the first spots will be given to the younger guys in the system. The next will likely be given to guys on minor league deals who could be designated for assignment without the Dodgers feeling like they are losing a prospect from the system. They have a history of doing so. The question about other arms in the system that could be called up (not on 40 man) is very interesting, and I really like it! For this section, I will be looking at guys who are Rule 5 eligible after the 2025 season in which they feel like they will have to protect them soon, as those are the most likely to get opportunities after the guys mentioned (not a lot of opportunities for these guys, but potentially some innings). This list is also not comprehensive, so I apologize to the names I missed.
Jose Rodriguez - One of the biggest swing and miss guys in the system, RHP, can start or provide bulk innings. If he makes a quick adjustment to Double A, he could be on the fast-track to LA. We saw Justin Wrobleski end the 2023 in High A Great Lakes and by July 2024 be with LA. That could happen to Jose, especially if they need length out of the pen. Is currently Rule 5 eligible.
Jared Karros - A more traditional starter, he was beyond excellent in a vast majority of his outings in recent years. He out dueled Jackson Jobe twice to eliminate Jobe and the Whitecaps in 2023, and has one of the best curveballs in baseball. If healthy, he is going to be knocking on the door this year and is Rule 5 eligible after this season.
Lucas Wepf - A bit of a funky RH reliever, he was dominant at many times out of the pen in the MiLB level. Likely not a multi-inning reliever, he did provide multi-inning outings this past season. Usually pitching in high-leverage situations. Big-time swing and miss, if he can make the adjustments he made returning to Tulsa like he did in Great Lakes and regains control, he will be knocking on the door. Rule 5 eligible after 2025.
Those are just three under the radar names to keep an eye on. So many other names to watch out for (Ferris, Kopp, Gamboa, Boyer, Duran, Knowles, etc), so it will be fun to watch the development of them!
Appreciate the comment and support! Happy New Year!
Nice analysis Helen B.! The average innings per start in MLB (including those with openers) was 5.25 innings. So I think your assumptions there are in line with league norms but I also think the Dodgers realize that they need to try to get length out of their starters for the reasons you note regarding a 6 man rotation. They failed last year and got 4.92 (per Statmuse) which was good for 21st in MLB where unsurprisingly the Seattle Mariners were #1 at 5.82 IP/GS. As Austin reminded on the show yesterday evening the overall pitching stats were (uncharacteristically) not great for the Dodgers last year. It'll be fascinating to see how all of the innings and starts get distributed in 2025. I tend to also be bullish on the regular season innings and starts for Ohtani and Kerhsaw.
Pages will start in RF and Conforto will play the Kiermaier role while Hernandez will stay in LF. You are way too high on Conforto and Edmond will also play a lot of infield as well as CF
I appreciate the feedback and support for the channel!
I do disagree about Conforto in the Kiermaier role. Kiermaier, at the point in his career, as a defensive replacement outfielder who could fill in at centerfield when needed and didn't need to play everyday. There are a lot of elements of Conforto's profile that do not scream this. The first element is his lack of ability to play CF. Last year, he played exclusively LF. He played some RF in 2023. The last time he ever played CF in MLB was 2019. I don't believe he will be an option in CF. There were other players available for cheaper contracts that could have filled the Kiermaier role of defense-first part time player, but that has not been the player Conforto is. He is below average defensively, meaning the Dodgers got him for his bat.
The past couple of seasons, he's has around 475 plate appearances, which is a near full-time role. I believe this is in line with the type of contract the Dodgers paid him at $17 million dollars, so I think he is likely to receive around that many plate appearances. I think the worst case scenario role for him (assuming he doesn't live up to his contract) would be a platoon bat with Andy Pages, where Conforto faces RHP and Pages faces LHP. However, I think they paid him to be more than that, and I don't see Teoscar (the other corner OF) receiving less playing time if healthy.
Thus, it is my belief that the only real way for Pages to get any real playing time with Teoscar playing 150 games+ in corner outfield and Conforto playing 130 games+ is in CF, which is currently locked down by Tommy Edman. Sure, Edman has the ability to play up the middle, which could be an option. I am just concerned with the outfield defense of Conforto Pages Teoscar, all of which I evaluate as below average in their respective positions (Conforto in LF, Pages in CF, Teoscar in RF). With those 3 outfielders out there, Pages is the only person who will play CF. There is no more real playing time in the corners on a full-time basis.
I am incredibly high on Pages, which is why I've stated I want him to be a starting corner outfielder in 2025 on multiple occasions. However, the Dodgers are the ones who are incredibly high on Conforto (paid him $17 million for a reason when they could have filled the Kiermaier role with Tauchman for less than $2 million), Teoscar, and Tommy Edman. As a result of the Dodgers' decisions, I have to evaluate what choices they are making and how the roster fits into their decisions. My opinion ultimately comes from what the Dodgers do and where they are likely to go next. As a result of good decisions the Dodgers have made, I see a very limited - to - no role for Pages in 2025, which will vastly diminish his value to LA and other organizations. He's a really good player and deserves opportunities, so that really bums me out for him and as a fan of wanting the Dodgers to get the most out of their players, either on the field or with trades. I don't want to see the career of Andy Pages wasted on the bench.
Hopefully this goes to further explain my opinion and why I state what I did on the show! Let me know where there is areas of disagreement, and we are more than welcome to continue this discussion! I'm always happy to change my opinion if something else makes sense or just hear other perspectives. There are many ways to go about this, which makes it fun and engaging. Happy New Year!