They’re not going to let Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Sasaki or even Snell throw anywhere close to 200 innings so that’s where the minor leaguers will get their big league opportunities.
Casey - The 2022 & 2023 seasons yielded Shohei’s best results for pitching & hitting, as in 2022 his pitching stats were 15-9, 2.33 ERA and he hit .273/.356/.519, 34 HRs, 95 RBIs and in 2023 his pitching stats were 10-5, 3.14 ERA and he hit .304/.412/.654, 44 HRs, 95 RBIs. From last season we saw what Shohei can do if he doesn’t pitch and only hits, as his stats were .310/.390/.646, 54 HRs, 130 RBIs, 59 SBs. We haven’t seen what Shohei pitching stats would be if he didn’t hit and concentrated only on pitching, but presumably his pitching stats would be better than his 2022 & 2023 pitching stats. With that set-up, my question is…. Among 3 scenarios in which Shohei hit & pitched, hit only or pitched only, which of these 3 roles do you think is the best / most valuable to the team’s results. Obviously Shohei & Dodger management believe hitting & pitching is most beneficial for the team, as well as being the hardest and most extraordinary accomplishment. But I think being able to improve his hitting to last season’s level adds more to the team’s success vs. hitting & pitching like he did in 2022 & 2023. What is your take on which of the 3 roles for Shohei would you want if you were managing the Dodgers…hitting & pitching, hitting only or pitching only? Shohei’s ability to both hit & pitch is an amazing accomplishment and I am in awe of his ability to do both at a very high level, but I’m not convinced that he adds the most value / benefit to the team by hitting & pitching. I think being able to step up his hitting to last season’s level adds more value / benefit to the team. Your thoughts on this? As well as the thoughts of fellow Dodgers Dawgs?
Since you put it out to the community I'll take a stab at this as a fellow Dawg. Ohtani's value as a two-way player shouldn't be taken for granted from a whole of roster perspective. In his 3 full seasons where Ohtani pitched, he threw between 130-160 innings. Let's say the Dodgers are conservative with that and he throws 120 for them each season. The best teams in the league get north of 900 innings from their starters so for Ohani to give 13%-14% as the extra bonus (14th) pitcher on the roster is huge. And those innings are way above average, and fellow Japanese pitchers YY and Sasaki are used to being in a real 6 man rotation. Ohtani's presence allows for that without burning a bullpen spot and he's capable of putting up 4 fWAR as a starter on a reduced workload. So I'm for the two-way role because it makes all the pitchers around him better. One wild card in favor of him being a full time hitter though is that many analysts think he would be a plus defender at potentially all 3 OF positions. Andruw Jones played with Ohtani in Japan when Ohtani first came out of HS and was playing in RF. He said Ohtani was a very good outfielder then and that he, Jones, used to make it a point to watch him shag during BP. This is Andruw Jones saying this who has a reasonable claim as best defensive outfielder of all time. And it makes some sense too, Ohtani is fast with long strides... one can imagine Ohtani covering a huge amount of ground. One last scenario not contemplated is using Ohtani as say a center fielder and an elite bullpen ace. There are people who think that at the end of his time Ohtani is going to be a closer and 1B.
@ Thanks! You put the value of Shohei pitching in a 2-way scenario in a perspective that I was not realizing. My thought that Shohei’s better batting stats from a hitting only scenario outweighed his pitching stats, (assuming pitching at the 20223-2023 level he attained), as I was thinking the Dodgers could plug in one of their many good arms in Shohei’s spot in the rotation. But I missed the fact that Shohei is a 14th pitcher while plugging another pitcher into Shohei’s spot in the rotation would mean not utilizing a 14th pitcher. So, I can now see that better batting performance in a hitting only scenario doesn’t outweigh his pitching. Thank You for putting that in perspective for me. Regards, D.
The 14th spot is invaluable, just simply because it allows them to commit to a 6-man rotation, which is part of the equation to combat the arm injuries they've had so many of.
Casey, I understand your lament and feel for you in regards to the prospects who you've cultivated relationships with. I guess my question is didn't they know this before they decided to accept their Dodger assignments? Weren't they advised by baseball personnel, agents and scouts that this would probably be the case? The Dodgers haven't given opportunities to their internally developed players really since Gonsolin, May, Buehler etc. That predated 2020. But I feel for you and for the young players certainly.
Thank you, Casey, for this informative episode. A dynasty isn't built overnight. The front office has done a great job of building this super team over the past couple of years, especially this year, by making key acquisitions for both the present and the next five to six years. Let's see what kind of magic they will pull off to finalize the 26-man and 40-man rosters for the 2025 season.
Here's an idea Casey. It would take a very brave player to do it, but it's a thought. Remember Curt flood? How about 1 or 2 or more players challenging this problem as a kind of minor league reserve clause? Even if it fails it might open up a dialogue and who knows what could happen after that for other players.
I see your point. But haven’t the Dodgers been good about moving top prospects when they are blocked? Have you seen a lot of players who have had a good chance of making the majors never get a shot? If it is a problem I would like to see the Dodgers actively trying to make it better for the players. I think it is great to bring this up and it is something that should be talked about more. It doesn’t mean the Dodgers should not get free agents they just need to also take care of those who are ready to try the Majors.
Hunter Feduccia, Drew Avans, Ryan Ward, Kody Hoese, Ryan Noda, Jahmai Jones, Nick Frasso, Nic Robertson, Bryan Hudson, Mark Washington, Ricky Vanasco, Alec Gamboa, John Rooney, Landon Knack, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, Justin Wrobleski, James Outman, Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, I would say they haven't given any of these guys the chances the deserve at all. These guys all deserve extended runway to show what they can or can't do. Either with LA, or by moving them to someone who would use them. Beyond them, now you have Dalton Rushing, Alex Freeland, Austin Gauthier, Jared Karros and Jackson Ferris who all should be making their MLB debuts pretty much right now, and they have absolutely no path at the moment. Chris Campos, Maddux Bruns and Peter Heubeck should be knocking on the door.
Here's a thought, with all these highly regarded pitching prospects and other options, let's package a Godfather Deal to set them free. It would have to be for a Dodger need like SS or CF. As most of usl know, It will take A L O T to wrangle Reds Elly away or somethbody like him. Maybe chat about this next time ?. Thanks Casey !
This is a tough one. As a greedy fan who wants to win 5 more championships, I’d say screw it. As a quasi decent human being with children in their teens and twenties, we can’t just let these minor league players to wallow in their prime years. I don’t know enough about baseball and its rules to formulate an idea, but I genuinely hope something gets done. Thanks for your thoughts. You’re welcome to rant anytime in my book. 👍🏼
I thought this conversation was a good one. It's important to remember that the free agent decisions have downstream consequences. Where I think it's tough is that this front office has never given this kind of top dollar or term to a leverage reliever. So it's a departure from their normal practice, one that was designed to mitigate the risk of an albatross contract blowing up on them given how volatile relievers are. Meanwhile, Devin Williams was available and most analysts think that Ryan Helsley (STL) is going to get moved too. It's very difficult to make the current version of the Dodgers better, so the viable trade opportunities that do so are extremely limited. Conforto signed early but I wonder if the Dodgers would have been in on Kyle Tucker. It would have required perhaps over paying and trading more good prospects and more major league ready talent but the Dodgers have it to trade. Maybe the Astros and Brewers don't want to trade with the Dodgers, maybe there's the champions tax LA would have to pay. The glut and log jam of talent is starting to get untenable. Guys need a lane at the ML level to get better. Fangraphs has the OKC rotation as: Knack, Miller, Casparius, Wrobleski, and Frasso. The Cardinals could probably win the NL Central with that group. Then there's all the guys who you have speculated that could be ready this year like Jared Karros, Heubeck, Ferris, and Campos. I mean it's to the point where it's depth for the depth. You mentioned Casparius a number of times today, for me it's Wrobleski who I feel looks very competitive at the ML level. He attacks and throws strikes. I feel his stuff is big league ready and the adjustments are not that substantial (what do I know, probably not much at all but I really want him to have a crack at 70 ML innings this year).
Thank you Jay, just wanted to get that side of it out there at least once, because I think it's important that people see how it affects the other side of the equation.
Maybe if they reduce the minor league service time of player who are 22 and older when they are drafted to 4 year instead of 6, that could be more fair to the players who get stockpiled
That would be great. I'd be in favor of a Competitive Balance Draft, where for every Million dollars a team is over the CBT, or several million dollars, whatever figure could be agreed upon, other teams get to draft one of the players in their Farm System for each benchmark hit over the CBT.
It’s bad for the pitchers but it’s worse for position players. It’s sad to bank on injuries to get a chance. I think Miller, if he has a good spring will break camp as one of the starters. I would like to see the Dodgers send multiple players away to get a star and/or maybe some lower level players with great arms and tools.
i was thinking the same thing when we signed conforto. then kim. then yates. all you did was get marginally better and blow off lux and your farm prospects. i will be very interested to see the roster on opening day. there are a bunch of stories of how the dodgers are ruining baseball. they aren't ruining baseball, they are ruining themselves. hopefully the management is smarter than us.
Your conversation is on point and the truth!💪🏿🌎🙏🏿
Thank you, just wanted to cover the human element of the other side of this kind of thing at least once. Appreciate your support
Thanks for sharing some things we the fans never hear about.
Wasn't sure it anyone enjoyed hearing that aspect of things, but wanted to at least get it out there.
They’re not going to let Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto, Sasaki or even Snell throw anywhere close to 200 innings so that’s where the minor leaguers will get their big league opportunities.
Casey - The 2022 & 2023 seasons yielded Shohei’s best results for pitching & hitting, as in 2022 his pitching stats were 15-9, 2.33 ERA and he hit .273/.356/.519, 34 HRs, 95 RBIs
and in 2023 his pitching stats were 10-5, 3.14 ERA and he hit .304/.412/.654, 44 HRs, 95 RBIs.
From last season we saw what Shohei can do if he doesn’t pitch and only hits, as his stats were .310/.390/.646, 54 HRs, 130 RBIs, 59 SBs. We haven’t seen what Shohei pitching stats would be if he didn’t hit and concentrated only on pitching, but presumably his pitching stats would be better than his 2022 & 2023 pitching stats.
With that set-up, my question is…. Among 3 scenarios in which Shohei hit & pitched, hit only or pitched only, which of these 3 roles do you think is the best / most valuable to the team’s results. Obviously Shohei & Dodger management believe hitting & pitching is most beneficial for the team, as well as being the hardest and most extraordinary accomplishment. But I think being able to improve his hitting to last season’s level adds more to the team’s success vs. hitting & pitching like he did in 2022 & 2023. What is your take on which of the 3 roles for Shohei would you want if you were managing the Dodgers…hitting & pitching, hitting only or pitching only?
Shohei’s ability to both hit & pitch is an amazing accomplishment and I am in awe of his ability to do both at a very high level, but I’m not convinced that he adds the most value / benefit to the team by hitting & pitching. I think being able to step up his hitting to last season’s level adds more value / benefit to the team. Your thoughts on this? As well as the thoughts of fellow Dodgers Dawgs?
Since you put it out to the community I'll take a stab at this as a fellow Dawg. Ohtani's value as a two-way player shouldn't be taken for granted from a whole of roster perspective. In his 3 full seasons where Ohtani pitched, he threw between 130-160 innings. Let's say the Dodgers are conservative with that and he throws 120 for them each season. The best teams in the league get north of 900 innings from their starters so for Ohani to give 13%-14% as the extra bonus (14th) pitcher on the roster is huge. And those innings are way above average, and fellow Japanese pitchers YY and Sasaki are used to being in a real 6 man rotation. Ohtani's presence allows for that without burning a bullpen spot and he's capable of putting up 4 fWAR as a starter on a reduced workload. So I'm for the two-way role because it makes all the pitchers around him better.
One wild card in favor of him being a full time hitter though is that many analysts think he would be a plus defender at potentially all 3 OF positions. Andruw Jones played with Ohtani in Japan when Ohtani first came out of HS and was playing in RF. He said Ohtani was a very good outfielder then and that he, Jones, used to make it a point to watch him shag during BP. This is Andruw Jones saying this who has a reasonable claim as best defensive outfielder of all time. And it makes some sense too, Ohtani is fast with long strides... one can imagine Ohtani covering a huge amount of ground.
One last scenario not contemplated is using Ohtani as say a center fielder and an elite bullpen ace. There are people who think that at the end of his time Ohtani is going to be a closer and 1B.
@ Thanks! You put the value of Shohei pitching in a 2-way scenario in a perspective that I was not realizing. My thought that Shohei’s better batting stats from a hitting only scenario outweighed his pitching stats, (assuming pitching at the 20223-2023 level he attained), as I was thinking the Dodgers could plug in one of their many good arms in Shohei’s spot in the rotation. But I missed the fact that Shohei is a 14th pitcher while plugging another pitcher into Shohei’s spot in the rotation would mean not utilizing a 14th pitcher. So, I can now see that better batting performance in a hitting only scenario doesn’t outweigh his pitching. Thank You for putting that in perspective for me.
Regards,
D.
The 14th spot is invaluable, just simply because it allows them to commit to a 6-man rotation, which is part of the equation to combat the arm injuries they've had so many of.
Casey, I understand your lament and feel for you in regards to the prospects who you've cultivated relationships with. I guess my question is didn't they know this before they decided to accept their Dodger assignments? Weren't they advised by baseball personnel, agents and scouts that this would probably be the case? The Dodgers haven't given opportunities to their internally developed players really since Gonsolin, May, Buehler etc. That predated 2020. But I feel for you and for the young players certainly.
Thank you, Casey, for this informative episode. A dynasty isn't built overnight. The front office has done a great job of building this super team over the past couple of years, especially this year, by making key acquisitions for both the present and the next five to six years. Let's see what kind of magic they will pull off to finalize the 26-man and 40-man rosters for the 2025 season.
Thank you William, for you great support
Here's an idea Casey. It would take a very brave player to do it, but it's a thought. Remember Curt flood? How about 1 or 2 or more players challenging this problem as a kind of minor league reserve clause? Even if it fails it might open up a dialogue and who knows what could happen after that for other players.
I see your point. But haven’t the Dodgers been good about moving top prospects when they are blocked? Have you seen a lot of players who have had a good chance of making the majors never get a shot? If it is a problem I would like to see the Dodgers actively trying to make it better for the players. I think it is great to bring this up and it is something that should be talked about more. It doesn’t mean the Dodgers should not get free agents they just need to also take care of those who are ready to try the Majors.
Hunter Feduccia, Drew Avans, Ryan Ward, Kody Hoese, Ryan Noda, Jahmai Jones, Nick Frasso, Nic Robertson, Bryan Hudson, Mark Washington, Ricky Vanasco, Alec Gamboa, John Rooney, Landon Knack, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt, River Ryan, Justin Wrobleski, James Outman, Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, I would say they haven't given any of these guys the chances the deserve at all. These guys all deserve extended runway to show what they can or can't do. Either with LA, or by moving them to someone who would use them.
Beyond them, now you have Dalton Rushing, Alex Freeland, Austin Gauthier, Jared Karros and Jackson Ferris who all should be making their MLB debuts pretty much right now, and they have absolutely no path at the moment. Chris Campos, Maddux Bruns and Peter Heubeck should be knocking on the door.
Here's a thought, with all these highly regarded pitching prospects and other options, let's package a Godfather Deal to set them free. It would have to be for a Dodger need like SS or CF. As most of usl know, It will take A L O T to wrangle Reds Elly away or somethbody like him. Maybe chat about this next time ?. Thanks Casey !
I would co-sign this idea. Fun topic to ask who is the player that the Dodgers should make "an offer they can't refuse".
I'm always up for trades that gives these guys better opportunities
This is a tough one. As a greedy fan who wants to win 5 more championships, I’d say screw it. As a quasi decent human being with children in their teens and twenties, we can’t just let these minor league players to wallow in their prime years. I don’t know enough about baseball and its rules to formulate an idea, but I genuinely hope something gets done. Thanks for your thoughts. You’re welcome to rant anytime in my book. 👍🏼
Me too, I wanted to get that side of it out, at least once. Appreciate your support
I thought this conversation was a good one. It's important to remember that the free agent decisions have downstream consequences. Where I think it's tough is that this front office has never given this kind of top dollar or term to a leverage reliever. So it's a departure from their normal practice, one that was designed to mitigate the risk of an albatross contract blowing up on them given how volatile relievers are. Meanwhile, Devin Williams was available and most analysts think that Ryan Helsley (STL) is going to get moved too. It's very difficult to make the current version of the Dodgers better, so the viable trade opportunities that do so are extremely limited. Conforto signed early but I wonder if the Dodgers would have been in on Kyle Tucker. It would have required perhaps over paying and trading more good prospects and more major league ready talent but the Dodgers have it to trade. Maybe the Astros and Brewers don't want to trade with the Dodgers, maybe there's the champions tax LA would have to pay. The glut and log jam of talent is starting to get untenable. Guys need a lane at the ML level to get better. Fangraphs has the OKC rotation as: Knack, Miller, Casparius, Wrobleski, and Frasso. The Cardinals could probably win the NL Central with that group. Then there's all the guys who you have speculated that could be ready this year like Jared Karros, Heubeck, Ferris, and Campos. I mean it's to the point where it's depth for the depth.
You mentioned Casparius a number of times today, for me it's Wrobleski who I feel looks very competitive at the ML level. He attacks and throws strikes. I feel his stuff is big league ready and the adjustments are not that substantial (what do I know, probably not much at all but I really want him to have a crack at 70 ML innings this year).
Thank you Jay, just wanted to get that side of it out there at least once, because I think it's important that people see how it affects the other side of the equation.
Maybe if they reduce the minor league service time of player who are 22 and older when they are drafted to 4 year instead of 6, that could be more fair to the players who get stockpiled
That would be great. I'd be in favor of a Competitive Balance Draft, where for every Million dollars a team is over the CBT, or several million dollars, whatever figure could be agreed upon, other teams get to draft one of the players in their Farm System for each benchmark hit over the CBT.
It’s bad for the pitchers but it’s worse for position players. It’s sad to bank on injuries to get a chance. I think Miller, if he has a good spring will break camp as one of the starters. I would like to see the Dodgers send multiple players away to get a star and/or maybe some lower level players with great arms and tools.
Agreed!
Roki Saski Shohel Ohotani Yoshinabu Yamamoto The Dodgers Just Made Ghidorah they should make them a shirt 👕 ha ha
Already built. Mostly. Just tweak it.
Yep!
i was thinking the same thing when we signed conforto. then kim. then yates. all you did was get marginally better and blow off lux and your farm prospects. i will be very interested to see the roster on opening day. there are a bunch of stories of how the dodgers are ruining baseball. they aren't ruining baseball, they are ruining themselves. hopefully the management is smarter than us.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out!