A man was struck by lightning 7 times in his life. The odds of that happening is 4.15 e-32. That is still significantly more likely to happen than this perfect run!
@@unownunown1530 A trillion is 12 zeroes, not even half of the exponential digits necessary to achieve this run. I guess you could say that he'd only be getting it in his dreams.
@@abelicio3586 No, no, the speedrun thing was all his gaming chair. Even with his gaming chair, though, it'd be next to impossible. This is the equivalent to beating Minecraft in a random seed in less than three minutes.
Check out stand-up math's video on the 10 billion human second century If a run like this were to happen, I feel confident saying it is sure to have been cheated
I don't know what everyone's struggling with. Once the timer reaches ZERO just pop the clutch you're already in second gear and also in the red but watch out for blowing up your engines. :)
considering 33 zeros is 1 decillion, then adding 2 more to get 35 means the odds are about 1 in 432,304,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 in words is 432 decillion, 304 nonillion, 100 octillion... or a 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of the perfect Mario Kart 64 speedrun
Imagine the devil tells people they can 100% perfect clear one game in order to escape hell and ascend to heaven, but this is the accomplishment needed.
For probability comparaison... Take two grain of sand and mark them. Now, have someone replace random grains of sand anywhere on Earth with your marked ones. Next pickup 25 random grains of sand from anywhere. If both of your marked grains of sands are now in your hand, you won! (There are an estimate of 10e18 grains of sands. So 1 over 10e36 to do it twice, 4*10e-34 to get it twice in 25 tries)
No you don’t understand, he’s just very lucky, nevermind that it’d take hundreds of thousands of runs to get one run with the RNG he consistently gets, he’s just very lucky you see
15:48 how about proton decay? the odds of a given proton breaking up into other particles via new quantum physics in a given year are thought to be on the order of 10EE-35 as well -- or winning the mega millions lottery 7 consecutive times
I can tell lots of effort was put in this video. This deserves much more views that videos with far less effort. I wrote tips on my own world record speed run but not this detailed with all the probabilities
Your final number is close to the reduced Planck constant (h/2pi = 1.055*10^-34 J*s), which is a very fundamental number in quantum mechanics, as it represents the smallest "block" (or quanta) in which energy can be subdivided. Seeing how your odds of a perfect Mario run are slightly lower than one of the universe's most fundamental energy limits, it's pretty safe to say that this run is NEVER going to happen! :)
Amazing video! I'm honestly a Mario Kart Wii player, but it's a while that I follow MK64's discoveries, TASes and Speedruns, also because I love when a video game is taken to a science level and every single glitch is explained so accurately (long story short, I love Watherton videos 😂). The funny thing is that my main passion is maths! Therefore, I appreciate this video so much! It's so nice seeing that maths with large numbers is implemented even in studying kid's games! 😂 Keep doing videos like this, they are so nice! 👍
Really neat concept, and I'd be interesting in seeing creators calculate the odds of success of the run over time being incorporated into World Record History style videos from this and other channels. Wind Waker in particular has had some low success rate runs over the years. And don't take this too harshly, but you could really do without the cringey cliché jokes... Some of them come across similar to those Gamestop ads that play in the store.
I would argue that the odds tied to the chances of a trick working should not count, as that's not pure chance and merely a rate at which a human might successfully complete said trick. I think it'd be better to say "if TAS were to attempt this run (with all tricks still being human possible), what are the odds the TAS would get the items it needs?" That would make this a more interesting question because it more firmly answers the true odds
@BAXTER MADORE yes but his point is that if a human could do the tricks every time that doesnt require rng then its a 100% success rate not that a tas can manipulate rng so its 100% anyways
your not wrong about discovering it as a kid on wario stadium, i discovered that one the week the game came out and that skip was standard in multiplayer among the groups i hung around because of it.
8:18 *really?* *10%* of the world are left handed. I myself too. I ONLY use right hand tools. No left hand mouse, pencil or whatever. Guess what my cat is also "made for righties" ... yeah, no lefthand cat here. So the chance of me (or most) left handed dying using a right handed tool is about as high as ANYONE dying with a right handed tool. I am just so fed up people make it sound like i am an alien for using my left hand to write... uhhh sooo special. So diiiifferent. Its more exotic wearing red shoes. 33yrs on this planet and only knew ONE guy who wore red shoes.
This was really good I actually really enjoyed it you know it's a good video when you lose track of time 😂 keep up the great work this video was very informative thank you
I think you should have made seperate comparisons cause i dont feel like your gonna wanna play for mushrooms on the tracks you cant do a shortcut, it doesnt save THAT much time, also maybe an extra comparison if a human had 100% accuracy with non rng tricks that would be cool to have, but otherwise this is amazing.
What has a chance of occurring close to this? Dream's Minecraft Speedrun which he 100% cheated. Even according to an anonymous "Harvard Astrophysicist" who wrote a halfassed essay riddled with spelling mistakes, his math was also a ridiculously large number.
Here's what I don't get. You say that you'll be going for strats speedrunners actually do, so you won't be calculating the odds of getting a mushroom every time. That's fair, but then you take the weathertenko into account, which is so unlikely people didn't even think it was humanly possible. If ridiculously unlikely but technically possible is an option, why not run the odds of getting a mushroom every time?
Wario Stadium super easy, 1 out of 50 oh that is why everyone hated me when we raced together. Oops. Insert the Rainbow Road jump plus me giggling when asked it makes even more sense.
this is why I'd understand if it was suddenly agreed to run a modified "speedrun" version of the game that gave optimal results from item boxes. since RNG, in this case, only serves to "artifically" lengthen the time it takes to make a great run happen. the RNG isn't a skill aspect, and is just a gacha that dictates whether you're going to hit restart or not lol though getting godlike RNG is pretty hype, I can see why it ends up just being a barrier to entry for the people not wanting to gamble away their time, who would otherwise be willing to learn the skill -based aspects of the game. bit of a weird grey area, mind. since some games rely almost entirely on the RNG aspect. but in mario kart's case, I'd understand.
That's what I always felt about the Black Knight weapon routes for Dark Souls. So much time wasted repeating the beginning of the game since it's not a guaranteed drop. Just mod the enemies to drop them 100% of the time. With the mutual understanding that new strategies should still be sought after that don't rely on modding. As the only strategy for mitigating this now is popping as many humanity as possible during downtime to boost item discovery.
On RRy you didnt factor in the difficulty of hitting the skip. Considering that the skip has only actually saved time in an actual run once it would significantly add to the total odds of the track. It was a pretty good video otherwise.
Yeah I'm not sure why he factored difficulty for some skips for not others. Also should have included things like on BC even if you start off by only going for the 3lap shroom, other item boxes after that that you can pick up are not out of your way so a perfect RNG run would get 5 shrooms there I think with a normal approach
so rooouuughly τ*e*10^(-35)/3.95 i really just added τ and e there cause they’re pretty.. but my point with this comment is different. When you have the power to insert about anything into a video, making it a clean looking 10 to the -35th power would look far neater than the calculator looking e-35.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
A man was struck by lightning 7 times in his life. The odds of that happening is 4.15 e-32. That is still significantly more likely to happen than this perfect run!
Dream could get the rng needed easily
@@unownunown1530
A trillion is 12 zeroes, not even half of the exponential digits necessary to achieve this run. I guess you could say that he'd only be getting it in his dreams.
@@gamerdomain6618 What can I say? Man's just got lucky
@@abelicio3586
No, no, the speedrun thing was all his gaming chair.
Even with his gaming chair, though, it'd be next to impossible.
This is the equivalent to beating Minecraft in a random seed in less than three minutes.
No, no, no, you still have to calculate the chance of death...
As a left handed person, I felt that 1 in 4 million odds lmao
-ghostly sounds of a right handed spoon-
Left hander gang
honestly, as a left handed person, I always wondered what the odds were xD
It's 1/10 lol
@@Draigor1996 1/10 or a 10% chance
The odds that Dream "had" still aren't as lucky as what you need for this
It’s not even close lol. This run is several orders of magnitude above dreams run😭
will there be an update for current strats?
@@SaltPyramids wait until July.
Lol. Dream.
I love finding these small channels, just hope it doesn't stay small. Deserves 10% of Summoning Salt's count at least
I'll take 100k subs!
True
wait, I just now realized that it has only 14k... such good content!
@@Abyssoftthis aged well
"Acts of God don't really factor into what's going on here."
This hypothetical speedrun would be an act of God if it actually happened!
And be suspected of cheating, lol.
Check out stand-up math's video on the 10 billion human second century
If a run like this were to happen, I feel confident saying it is sure to have been cheated
8:13 *left-handed, using scissors made for right-handed folks*
_struck dead by lightning_
I don't know what everyone's struggling with. Once the timer reaches ZERO just pop the clutch you're already in second gear and also in the red but watch out for blowing up your engines. :)
considering 33 zeros is 1 decillion, then adding 2 more to get 35 means the odds are about
1 in 432,304,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
in words is 432 decillion, 304 nonillion, 100 octillion...
or a 0.000000000000000000000000000000001% chance of the perfect Mario Kart 64 speedrun
1:43 "boring logistics and math stuff"
Me, a math and stats major: "And I took that personally"
Imagine the devil tells people they can 100% perfect clear one game in order to escape hell and ascend to heaven, but this is the accomplishment needed.
Well, the Xenon decay just got observed! It was an unrelated experiment but, by chance, they were able to observe a few Xenon atoms decay xD
what the fuck dude.
We’re observing an extremely large number so despite the long half life this shouldn’t be surprising.
Alternate title: if dream played Mario Kart
💀
Lmao
🧄
🤣
this aged like milk
This had to b a labor intensive upload..and a great idea also...really enjoyed it.
This was a really well put together video, and you did a great job of explaining the tricks to newcomers like me.. Well done!
cringe pfp lol
I loved this video and the last one. Keep up the good work!
I love the naming of “beck’s constant”. Great vid as well.
For probability comparaison...
Take two grain of sand and mark them. Now, have someone replace random grains of sand anywhere on Earth with your marked ones. Next pickup 25 random grains of sand from anywhere. If both of your marked grains of sands are now in your hand, you won! (There are an estimate of 10e18 grains of sands. So 1 over 10e36 to do it twice, 4*10e-34 to get it twice in 25 tries)
I'm sure _Dream_ could achieve this run.
yep
No you don’t understand, he’s just very lucky, nevermind that it’d take hundreds of thousands of runs to get one run with the RNG he consistently gets, he’s just very lucky you see
@@cr4shmycar118 thats the point
He has a really good gaming chair too!
Came here to say, screw the Odds Dream probably already has done this
@@benderscollections7763 ok
What a weirdly beautiful statistic for the 3 weathertenkos
Your vids keep getting better and better. Keep it up!
15:48 how about proton decay? the odds of a given proton breaking up into other particles via new quantum physics in a given year are thought to be on the order of 10EE-35 as well -- or winning the mega millions lottery 7 consecutive times
"Beck's constant" gold 🤣🤣
Nice vid btw
I can tell lots of effort was put in this video. This deserves much more views that videos with far less effort. I wrote tips on my own world record speed run but not this detailed with all the probabilities
Your final number is close to the reduced Planck constant (h/2pi = 1.055*10^-34 J*s), which is a very fundamental number in quantum mechanics, as it represents the smallest "block" (or quanta) in which energy can be subdivided.
Seeing how your odds of a perfect Mario run are slightly lower than one of the universe's most fundamental energy limits, it's pretty safe to say that this run is NEVER going to happen! :)
8:10
I'm left-handed. Now... I'm scared. Really scared.
I think you meant 8:10
@@nickbrennan8979 You would be correct! Thank you very much.
What if the very next day the speed runner got those odds
There would be an investigation launched beyond the scale to which Dreams run was looked at.
I remember accidentally doing the DK Jungle Parkway skip as a kid. I always went for it after that.
So only about a billion times less likely than Dream's RNG in Minecraft.
Amazing video! I'm honestly a Mario Kart Wii player, but it's a while that I follow MK64's discoveries, TASes and Speedruns, also because I love when a video game is taken to a science level and every single glitch is explained so accurately (long story short, I love Watherton videos 😂). The funny thing is that my main passion is maths! Therefore, I appreciate this video so much! It's so nice seeing that maths with large numbers is implemented even in studying kid's games! 😂 Keep doing videos like this, they are so nice! 👍
I love the cowbell joke
Really neat concept, and I'd be interesting in seeing creators calculate the odds of success of the run over time being incorporated into World Record History style videos from this and other channels. Wind Waker in particular has had some low success rate runs over the years. And don't take this too harshly, but you could really do without the cringey cliché jokes... Some of them come across similar to those Gamestop ads that play in the store.
Give me the beer bottle!
I would argue that the odds tied to the chances of a trick working should not count, as that's not pure chance and merely a rate at which a human might successfully complete said trick.
I think it'd be better to say "if TAS were to attempt this run (with all tricks still being human possible), what are the odds the TAS would get the items it needs?"
That would make this a more interesting question because it more firmly answers the true odds
@BAXTER MADORE yes but his point is that if a human could do the tricks every time that doesnt require rng then its a 100% success rate not that a tas can manipulate rng so its 100% anyways
this shouldnt be a problem for a guy like dream
Cool idea, really well executed!
Runners pop their mushroom 👀
i swear your channel is a gold mine for speedrun content (as a new subscriber)
Glad to have you!
You had me at "That's the same odds as..."
"About the odds of rolling a crit in D&D" ah, so my DM is gonna be really good at this skip then :/
your not wrong about discovering it as a kid on wario stadium, i discovered that one the week the game came out and that skip was standard in multiplayer among the groups i hung around because of it.
Here after Abney hit a Weathertenko during a (failed) 150cc skips wr run lol
Did he mention the video?
@@Abyssoft no, I found this in my recommended somehow
@@brandonm1708 Sweet, glad to have you either way, I was just curious; he helped out a lot with this video.
@@Abyssoft yeah, it was a cool video
Neat video! Thanks for uploading!
I hope people start using the term ‘Beck’s constant’ in maths papers
This channel deserves more attention. I'll be proud to be one of the subs at less than 3K when it gets to 100K or more.
was an interesting video thanks
8:18 *really?* *10%* of the world are left handed. I myself too. I ONLY use right hand tools. No left hand mouse, pencil or whatever. Guess what my cat is also "made for righties" ... yeah, no lefthand cat here. So the chance of me (or most) left handed dying using a right handed tool is about as high as ANYONE dying with a right handed tool. I am just so fed up people make it sound like i am an alien for using my left hand to write... uhhh sooo special. So diiiifferent. Its more exotic wearing red shoes. 33yrs on this planet and only knew ONE guy who wore red shoes.
This was really good I actually really enjoyed it you know it's a good video when you lose track of time 😂 keep up the great work this video was very informative thank you
0:16 Answer: it'd be a TAS.
Fun thing to mention: Only remembered to like while the ads were playing.
Where's your podcast? What's it called? I couldn't find it. Thanks!
Not a constant fwiw, since it relies upon user success rate
Yooooo this channel is awesome! New sub!
ty for this nice content
I think you should have made seperate comparisons cause i dont feel like your gonna wanna play for mushrooms on the tracks you cant do a shortcut, it doesnt save THAT much time, also maybe an extra comparison if a human had 100% accuracy with non rng tricks that would be cool to have, but otherwise this is amazing.
Your videos are super chill bro, keep it up
I wonder how this would change with current strats.
Underrated video
so its roughly 1 in "not gonna happen"
15:39 are you using a spicy S here "ß" or is that just a B in a certain font?
It's the Greek letter Beta
@@Abyssoft oh ok
@@dennisw100 It was one of the few Greek letters that weren't used for math symbols already, and it coincided with Abneys first initial.
I don't think Beck Abney goes for the Weathertenko when he does his speedruns.
I wish I could give you tons of views! I love your content!!
You can! Just use [INSERT SCAMMY BOT WEBSITE HERE]!
CRANKED PASTRY THUMBNAIL
Shouldnt you have to add the moles on Moomoo into thr rng? They are a crucial part because the optimal line goes right over them. Nice video btw, ggwp
Moles are avoided in the skips speedrun, hence why they aren't covered here :)
@@Abyssoft Ah! Skipping them is a slight detail that could remove them from the odds I guess haha. Thanks for quick reply!
birds not here yet?
Were oh were can our birdsbirdsbirds be?
Aby plays MtG confirmed
What's the hunch for this? I legit didn't put an MTG reference in the video that I'm aware of
IT'S PRONOUNCED "FRAP-AY".
What has a chance of occurring close to this? Dream's Minecraft Speedrun which he 100% cheated. Even according to an anonymous "Harvard Astrophysicist" who wrote a halfassed essay riddled with spelling mistakes, his math was also a ridiculously large number.
i dare you calculate the odds of a perfect full run of Golden Eye
Here's what I don't get. You say that you'll be going for strats speedrunners actually do, so you won't be calculating the odds of getting a mushroom every time. That's fair, but then you take the weathertenko into account, which is so unlikely people didn't even think it was humanly possible. If ridiculously unlikely but technically possible is an option, why not run the odds of getting a mushroom every time?
Dream: 👁👄👁
How does content like this only get 800 likes...
Wario Stadium super easy, 1 out of 50 oh that is why everyone hated me when we raced together. Oops. Insert the Rainbow Road jump plus me giggling when asked it makes even more sense.
this is why I'd understand if it was suddenly agreed to run a modified "speedrun" version of the game that gave optimal results from item boxes. since RNG, in this case, only serves to "artifically" lengthen the time it takes to make a great run happen.
the RNG isn't a skill aspect, and is just a gacha that dictates whether you're going to hit restart or not lol
though getting godlike RNG is pretty hype, I can see why it ends up just being a barrier to entry for the people not wanting to gamble away their time, who would otherwise be willing to learn the skill -based aspects of the game.
bit of a weird grey area, mind. since some games rely almost entirely on the RNG aspect. but in mario kart's case, I'd understand.
That's what I always felt about the Black Knight weapon routes for Dark Souls. So much time wasted repeating the beginning of the game since it's not a guaranteed drop. Just mod the enemies to drop them 100% of the time. With the mutual understanding that new strategies should still be sought after that don't rely on modding. As the only strategy for mitigating this now is popping as many humanity as possible during downtime to boost item discovery.
7:45 - you should've explained what "cc" means
On RRy you didnt factor in the difficulty of hitting the skip. Considering that the skip has only actually saved time in an actual run once it would significantly add to the total odds of the track. It was a pretty good video otherwise.
Yeah I'm not sure why he factored difficulty for some skips for not others. Also should have included things like on BC even if you start off by only going for the 3lap shroom, other item boxes after that that you can pick up are not out of your way so a perfect RNG run would get 5 shrooms there I think with a normal approach
Random Box In A Nutshell:
*laughs in TAS*
I was thinking a Googolplex
I subscribed in the first second
hell yeah
Wow you mention DnD 😏
How do people even find that stuff!?
13:20 i want to be bored
How come the left wall on Mario Raceway said Marioro? The retail version says Mario Star.
@sodorlorekeeper828 Thank you very much, sir.
*I HEART MARIO KEART!*
(Unless I'm playing against someone)
WHERES THE BECKS CONSTANT WIKIPEDIA PAGE
SL did not age well 😂
Still luckier than dream haha
UnDecillion is pronounced "ooondehsihllion"
1 in 7.5 trillion
tas
Spoiler warning! This comment has the probability that's calculated in the video.
4.323041e-35
dream
so rooouuughly τ*e*10^(-35)/3.95
i really just added τ and e there cause they’re pretty.. but my point with this comment is different. When you have the power to insert about anything into a video, making it a clean looking 10 to the -35th power would look far neater than the calculator looking e-35.
I know the answer! It's epsilon! xD
first comment lmao
H
Graham Harrower MY HOMIEEE
Graham Harrower
Yes you are first so here’s a Crown: 👑