Actually Patrik has a cool bluffcatching combo - he hasn’t a club or any card between 3 and T which unblocks all the bricked frontdoor flushdraws and every straight draw on the flop. Still very tough to actually pull the trigger to make this call at this stage, this is what makes him so strong.
That hand reminds me of the hand Patrick Antonius played against Phil Lack on High Stakes Poker. He also called with just a bottom pair (pair of 4) and won a huge pot!
I think preflop is standard, although it's interesting that T8o in a cEV spot wouldn't always raise here. Flop is interesting. Patrik could actually lead here a tiny percentage of the time with his exact hand (bottom pair with a backdoor flush draw) although in practice check is fine. Mustafov's hand gets to do a little bit of everything - it can check, bet small or even bet medium sometimes, although I'd think a small bet is probably best as it is likely the most effective at putting ICM pressure on Patrik. (even though in reality Mustafov should not be range betting here on this board) Patrik should always call, obviously with bottom pair and backdoor hearts. Turn is standard for Mustafov, although I could argue that he's really not folding out a lot of stuff that Patrik calls flop with other than maybe some suited 2dxd or 2sxs type hands. That being said, Patrik is in a rough spot but I agree that call is probably best. Solvers would likely argue folding some % of the time to that sizing even with the heart draw, especially with ICM implications, but if we think Mustafov is betting way too many hands here we can probably always call . Jam really isn't a thing with pair + flush draws, the bluff jams are going to be the high equity combo draws like 85hh or 95ss. Interestingly enough, if you run this through a solver, J2/T2/92 are a pure folds for Patrik on the river, while some worse 2x like 52 are calls. My hunch is that this comes from the fact that the J, T and 9 block a lot of the bluffs Mustafov will have. So for Patrik to call, he actually should feel like Mustafov is significantly overbluffing - which he likely is to pile on ICM pressure. Fascinating hand.
Love the breakdown, just don't agree with the Antonius turn lead (even a tiny percentage of the time) just because you picked up a bunch of equity there and getting re raise jammed in that spot is horrendous. Did not do the solver work but I assume good spots for Antonius leading would be if the 6, 2 or maybe even the 7 pair because a lot of Mustafovs' range checks back in that situation.
Given the stack sizes the buttons ranged is nearly uncapped pre flop. He triple barreled so he couldn’t be more polarized. The run out let Patric get to the river and at that point it was a question of stack size. He figured this was a good a chance to win a big pot as he will have given the blinds. Always feels good catching a bluff.
Can't decide if I would call based on what I know in the video. Patrick has been paying attention for a while to how he is playing at this point and that would inform my decision also.
I saw this hand. I also like Antonius. I would have considered check-jamming the turn. This isn’t a prime consideration usually with a pair-but wouldn’t have assumed bottom pair J kicker had a lot of showdown. But assuming I check-called the turn, On the river: we unblock all the flopped straight draws: T9, T8, 98, 54. That’s a lot of bluffs. It’s a negative we have hearts, but the front-door flush draw was clubs and we have no clubs either. So we are unblocking quite a lot of bluffs. I think we have to know what the other stack sizes at the table are. Antonius is way shorter stack than Mustafov. I guess I fold if there are 1 or two tiny stacks at the table I could potentially outlast, but if I’m the shortest stack after the money I already put in the pot, I’ll do the hero call.
I would not have been able to make this call. I imagine more than just the action that Little describes here, Antonius had to have had some additional read to make the call he did. Imo, this is a much more impressive call than the 10 high call against Fedor given the action and the board run out in that hand. In this hand, I’ve no idea how he reasoned out a call here.
A lot of times, an opponent is so aggressive that every time you check from early position, they bet: every time, on every street. That has to be a part of your thought process.
Very shallow stack poker at the end of a tourney is such a special different animal than your full ring 2/5 game. Like a different game. No way I’d make this call but I can see how study can get you to making calls in spots like this.
Are there really ICM implications when you are in the final 3, and you are the shortstack? I don't think so. How much did the other dude have? Patrick looked pretty short. Unless there were other tables running, which isn't likely.
@@PokerCoaching Yeah but when you are the shortest stack by a good margin? It's not like you are worried about busting before stacks shorter than you. You have to take +EV when you can if very short.
In a heartbeat. I think Patrik had his mind made up on the turn. Being the movie star he is. Played the roll out. How about some backgammon Jeff. Is that you?
Maybe Patrick saw a physical tell? The opponent was staring at him. Most of the time that is a bluff. He was trying to look strong. Should have stared at the cards. Maybe that helped on calling.
What about physical and verbal reads here? I have no history on villain. His bets are questioning. His voice goes up at the end. His demeanor suggests strength. Is he transmitting strong is weak here? Hero is watching.
Insane call but I think the best play would of been jamming the turn honestly in most situations. Obviously he got max value with this incredible call tho.
The problem is, as John said, he has no fold equity against any better hand, every hand he is betting for value on the turn i.e. 7x + is gonna call him and he will be in horrible shape with one card to come. If he had smt in the ballpark of 20+ blinds behind at that point it would be a good play but in that situation I don't think the hand plays the same. As played however he has 12 blinds so around 8,5 more than what Mustafov already put in on his turn bet in that spot I feel even some semi bluffs like straight plus flush draws might call him and if they are of clubs I would not be thrilled with the call holding just the deuce there.
given how few BB's he has, and will have, you pretty much have to call there and just hope like hell he's got a bluff. as you said there are plenty of them, and far far fewer value hands in his range. not what I'd call an easy call but at that stage of the tournament it's pretty much fold on the flop or accept that you're bluff catching all the way down with hands like this (assuming you actually have showdown value vs no pair hands).
It looked like Mustafov was attempting to use his big stack like a club and smash his last two opponents. I hope I would’ve made the call but it’s unlikely.
Yeah I think you have to make the call you're already pot committed as far as you've been this far into the hand you have to call I mean if you lose you lose honestly you you know but you've already jumped most of your stack in this pot and you pulled what do you got left maybe five big blinds if you're lucky if you're lucky you got you just got a call and if he's got a better hand than he had a better hand that's all there is to it.
Ace on the River made it tougher to call . The bet should’ve been 6.8m on the River if he has an Ace . But a shove ? is a bit smelly . Against this high caliber players like Patrick Antonius , you cannot make any mistake
Nope, a pair of twos is a pure bluff catcher. I can see why Patrik did call. But it's a tough spot for your tournament life. If Mustifov didn't have a higher pair, he likely was bluffing with a K or a 10. Patrik blocked J so it is less likely than a K or 10, but possible. So he Patrik guessed correctly, it was a pure bluff. I don't know that I would have put that together in the time given.
If he folds he's crippled and if he's out he's third. If he wants to win calling is the only option. His best chance of winning is calling. Folding is likely third and calling has a chance of third but also getting enough chips to win. I'd call.
Could be just me, but if I were Patrik, I would've been more concerned if the opponent bet one-third pot again on the A river, i.e. something like 2.2m into the 6.4m pot. That would scream value to me as the opponent is not putting me all-in and seemingly wants a call without me feeling like I'm risking my whole stack. I think I would've had a harder time making the call if the opponent took this line. Great call by Patrik regardless!
He has to be balanced by jamming all of his value bets (even the thin ones) in that spot because he is giving up a huge amount of equity by not busting you when he has it and the difference of 3 blinds when he value owns himself is marginal because the very last chip he takes from you is worth a couple of 100k. So basically everything from 7J to top set is a jam in that spot it's not like a cash game where you have different sizings dependent on hand type.
Congratulations to huge win! 💖 I know where you can get more than 78 free spins.Best choice. It is funny to watch streamers winning big and pretending like its their money 🤣
I think so, because you are already in the money, dude is agro, you would only have a few BB’s left over, and the other points you made about range. Hard to say sitting on the sidelines though.
You only want to keep them in on the turn if you’re snap calling the river shove. If you’re folding then you might as well fold or shove the turn, almost no card can change your plan in this scenario unless multiple things hit. Like a 9,8 or a club And the announcer is absolutely right that some hands that are bluffing are ahead. I’m not sure I like the turn call and river call with 2’s. Does the solver call here?
I would have never called river with bp for my tour life as played, but I would have definitely shoved turn if I played at my current state. 2 days ago I would flip on the flop against this maniac chip leader.
I feel like this is fully being honest. In that situation I think I would have made the call. Given that pairs are harder to make in that situation and for all the reasons mentioned I feel like could have made the call. The club flush draw missed, the straights missed. I presume 4th got paid so I’m walking away up and I’m in it to win it. Close my eyes and call. Now all that being said in my low stakes games that’s a fold all day lol I play with people who never bluff the turn and river. They always have it! Always!
Would you have found the hero call on the river as Patrik Antonius? Be honest! 😅
No
Hell no.
No, because even if you rule out the A and Q, he could easily have 7 or 6.
Absolutely... not!
I mean every draw missed... So maybe...
I cant believe he slowrolled him like that with his 2s
Being all in with 10 high and having Patrick Antonios staring at me would be terrifiying
What does he make of the tell when you poop yourself?
Lol
you can see him breathing heavy
I would just melt and give him all of my chips to make it stop
thats why he gave off a big tell... scared
I once made a hero call with 10 high against an opponent's 9 high in a 5 card stud home game. My poker career has been downhill ever since.
And they think J4 call is crazy!
Actually Patrik has a cool bluffcatching combo - he hasn’t a club or any card between 3 and T which unblocks all the bricked frontdoor flushdraws and every straight draw on the flop. Still very tough to actually pull the trigger to make this call at this stage, this is what makes him so strong.
I’m a fan of Patrik, as well. Well thought out play. Great analysis, Jonathan.
Patrick Antonius always manages to impress me, somehow. One of the only early members of online poker to actually have a really, really strong game.
That hand reminds me of the hand Patrick Antonius played against Phil Lack on High Stakes Poker. He also called with just a bottom pair (pair of 4) and won a huge pot!
Great Video Johnathan ! Best call ive seen 2022 !!
Thank you for doing this video. I was hoping you would do an analysis after watchings this on facebook. More power!
I think preflop is standard, although it's interesting that T8o in a cEV spot wouldn't always raise here.
Flop is interesting. Patrik could actually lead here a tiny percentage of the time with his exact hand (bottom pair with a backdoor flush draw) although in practice check is fine. Mustafov's hand gets to do a little bit of everything - it can check, bet small or even bet medium sometimes, although I'd think a small bet is probably best as it is likely the most effective at putting ICM pressure on Patrik. (even though in reality Mustafov should not be range betting here on this board) Patrik should always call, obviously with bottom pair and backdoor hearts.
Turn is standard for Mustafov, although I could argue that he's really not folding out a lot of stuff that Patrik calls flop with other than maybe some suited 2dxd or 2sxs type hands. That being said, Patrik is in a rough spot but I agree that call is probably best. Solvers would likely argue folding some % of the time to that sizing even with the heart draw, especially with ICM implications, but if we think Mustafov is betting way too many hands here we can probably always call . Jam really isn't a thing with pair + flush draws, the bluff jams are going to be the high equity combo draws like 85hh or 95ss.
Interestingly enough, if you run this through a solver, J2/T2/92 are a pure folds for Patrik on the river, while some worse 2x like 52 are calls. My hunch is that this comes from the fact that the J, T and 9 block a lot of the bluffs Mustafov will have. So for Patrik to call, he actually should feel like Mustafov is significantly overbluffing - which he likely is to pile on ICM pressure.
Fascinating hand.
Love the breakdown, just don't agree with the Antonius turn lead (even a tiny percentage of the time) just because you picked up a bunch of equity there and getting re raise jammed in that spot is horrendous. Did not do the solver work but I assume good spots for Antonius leading would be if the 6, 2 or maybe even the 7 pair because a lot of Mustafovs' range checks back in that situation.
I can easily say TM @ Poker Lodge ends up in this situation often & many a dealers have seen him nail it. Much respect!
I always appreciate your content. Thank you.
Calling shenanigans on JL or the video footage!!!! how does the field go from 4 to 3 in the same hand?
Amazing call. I wonder if the villian's cbet on the flop was 2/3 the pot if Patrick would still make the call.
Jonathan do you think there is some merit for Mustafov to only bet maybe 2 mio on the river, because it looks stronger than a jam?
Given the stack sizes the buttons ranged is nearly uncapped pre flop. He triple barreled so he couldn’t be more polarized. The run out let Patric get to the river and at that point it was a question of stack size. He figured this was a good a chance to win a big pot as he will have given the blinds. Always feels good catching a bluff.
did this at a 1/2 table now knees are broken.
Absolutely not finding the call unless I’m hammered thinking I have a set of 22
Can't decide if I would call based on what I know in the video. Patrick has been paying attention for a while to how he is playing at this point and that would inform my decision also.
At what SPR do you think Antonius should have shove check raised on the turn?
I saw this hand. I also like Antonius.
I would have considered check-jamming the turn. This isn’t a prime consideration usually with a pair-but wouldn’t have assumed bottom pair J kicker had a lot of showdown. But assuming I check-called the turn,
On the river: we unblock all the flopped straight draws: T9, T8, 98, 54. That’s a lot of bluffs. It’s a negative we have hearts, but the front-door flush draw was clubs and we have no clubs either. So we are unblocking quite a lot of bluffs.
I think we have to know what the other stack sizes at the table are. Antonius is way shorter stack than Mustafov. I guess I fold if there are 1 or two tiny stacks at the table I could potentially outlast, but if I’m the shortest stack after the money I already put in the pot, I’ll do the hero call.
Actually it's not a negative to have hearts. Missed hearts usually should give up on the river since they block missed hearts from the villain :)
@@justsomeguy8018 haha that’s kind of interesting logic!
WOw such a nice call im almost for sure not able to make such call in such circumstances
I would not have been able to make this call. I imagine more than just the action that Little describes here, Antonius had to have had some additional read to make the call he did. Imo, this is a much more impressive call than the 10 high call
against Fedor given the action and the board run out in that hand. In this hand, I’ve no idea how he reasoned out a call here.
Thats a sick call by Patrick!
That is textbook definition of hero call
Never couldve find the call 😅
A lot of times, an opponent is so aggressive that every time you check from early position, they bet: every time, on every street. That has to be a part of your thought process.
Very shallow stack poker at the end of a tourney is such a special different animal than your full ring 2/5 game. Like a different game. No way I’d make this call but I can see how study can get you to making calls in spots like this.
Yes, I would have called. Any pair feels like the favorite. T8 I would shove flop and cross fingers. Seems like more fold equity
See joey Ingram's ig post. Now that's an analysis of this hand #dankness
Are there really ICM implications when you are in the final 3, and you are the shortstack? I don't think so. How much did the other dude have? Patrick looked pretty short. Unless there were other tables running, which isn't likely.
Yes...that is when ICM is the highest...
@@PokerCoaching Yeah but when you are the shortest stack by a good margin? It's not like you are worried about busting before stacks shorter than you. You have to take +EV when you can if very short.
Mike Postle would have called. He wouldn't have even tanked for that long.
I would not have made that call but probably all in on turn wow he is amazing!
I would have never made that call
Waiting for all the poker pros to comment saying it's a easy call.
that call was WAY beyond my ability...((
that buy in alone can be WAY beyond your wallet
In a heartbeat. I think Patrik had his mind made up on the turn. Being the movie star he is. Played the roll out. How about some backgammon Jeff. Is that you?
Johnny Rockwell?
Maybe Patrick saw a physical tell? The opponent was staring at him. Most of the time that is a bluff. He was trying to look strong. Should have stared at the cards. Maybe that helped on calling.
dealer in the secret lab chair?
What about physical and verbal reads here? I have no history on villain. His bets are questioning. His voice goes up at the end. His demeanor suggests strength. Is he transmitting strong is weak here? Hero is watching.
Sometimes tells are relevant.
if I'm playing a 1$ tournament I"m calling 100%
SO IS THIS A PROFITABEL PLAY 😂😂😂❤
Insane call but I think the best play would of been jamming the turn honestly in most situations. Obviously he got max value with this incredible call tho.
he made the best play, he got a full double up from it
The problem is, as John said, he has no fold equity against any better hand, every hand he is betting for value on the turn i.e. 7x + is gonna call him and he will be in horrible shape with one card to come. If he had smt in the ballpark of 20+ blinds behind at that point it would be a good play but in that situation I don't think the hand plays the same. As played however he has 12 blinds so around 8,5 more than what Mustafov already put in on his turn bet in that spot I feel even some semi bluffs like straight plus flush draws might call him and if they are of clubs I would not be thrilled with the call holding just the deuce there.
given how few BB's he has, and will have, you pretty much have to call there and just hope like hell he's got a bluff. as you said there are plenty of them, and far far fewer value hands in his range. not what I'd call an easy call but at that stage of the tournament it's pretty much fold on the flop or accept that you're bluff catching all the way down with hands like this (assuming you actually have showdown value vs no pair hands).
To answer your question: I'm never calling there. Which is (part of) why Antonius is a better player than me!
Couldn't have called with the deuce, more than likely. I would've jammed the Qh on the turn, hoping Villain would fold.
Afraid I would not have had that call in me.
No way I could have called
Well maybe, we dont know the history of him, but even if he was a massive over agrassiv mega punter I might try to find a better spot.
Hell no I'm folding turn or river??? All in with 22??
To the overy aggressive players, you just have to close your eyes, believe, and make the call
I would have fold preflop or check yam turn
I would have called, villain would have shown Q7o for two pairs and poker internet would wonder if I had ever heard about ICM.
It looked like Mustafov was attempting to use his big stack like a club and smash his last two opponents. I hope I would’ve made the call but it’s unlikely.
Yeah I think you have to make the call you're already pot committed as far as you've been this far into the hand you have to call I mean if you lose you lose honestly you you know but you've already jumped most of your stack in this pot and you pulled what do you got left maybe five big blinds if you're lucky if you're lucky you got you just got a call and if he's got a better hand than he had a better hand that's all there is to it.
Don’t think I would have been able to make that call. Might have even folded before the river…
i wouldnt have made that call. but thats why he is a pro
Its funny Patrick still looks the same as 20 years ago
No, not me
I would fold that select version of J2 of hearts for sure. Other J2 would be the real question
Ace on the River made it tougher to call . The bet should’ve been 6.8m on the River if he has an Ace . But a shove ? is a bit smelly . Against this high caliber players like Patrick Antonius , you cannot make any mistake
Nope, a pair of twos is a pure bluff catcher. I can see why Patrik did call. But it's a tough spot for your tournament life. If Mustifov didn't have a higher pair, he likely was bluffing with a K or a 10. Patrik blocked J so it is less likely than a K or 10, but possible. So he Patrik guessed correctly, it was a pure bluff. I don't know that I would have put that together in the time given.
I don't know, man, his face (Mustafov), after the jam was not convincingly...
I could never make that call. What is also true is I'd never be in that tournament to begin with.
I would probably find the call if i Did everything Patrik did to the river, but I probably would have check jammed the turn
Snap call
If he folds he's crippled and if he's out he's third. If he wants to win calling is the only option. His best chance of winning is calling. Folding is likely third and calling has a chance of third but also getting enough chips to win. I'd call.
I live for hero calls. I definitely call off.
No way I can call there.
Could be just me, but if I were Patrik, I would've been more concerned if the opponent bet one-third pot again on the A river, i.e. something like 2.2m into the 6.4m pot. That would scream value to me as the opponent is not putting me all-in and seemingly wants a call without me feeling like I'm risking my whole stack. I think I would've had a harder time making the call if the opponent took this line. Great call by Patrik regardless!
with that pot size it's pretty much all in or nothing
He has to be balanced by jamming all of his value bets (even the thin ones) in that spot because he is giving up a huge amount of equity by not busting you when he has it and the difference of 3 blinds when he value owns himself is marginal because the very last chip he takes from you is worth a couple of 100k. So basically everything from 7J to top set is a jam in that spot it's not like a cash game where you have different sizings dependent on hand type.
Definitely would have folded, but it's a great call and makes total sense.
Congratulations to huge win! 💖 I know where you can get more than 78 free spins.Best choice.
It is funny to watch streamers winning big and pretending like its their money 🤣
probably not
I would've snap called easy all day!! Then wake up and make coffee before heading back to my bs job..
If youre gonna hero call make sure theyre bluffing
I'd fold either on the flop or on the turn, that's why I'm bad player lol
No I wouldn’t have found that call
I think so, because you are already in the money, dude is agro, you would only have a few BB’s left over, and the other points you made about range. Hard to say sitting on the sidelines though.
You only want to keep them in on the turn if you’re snap calling the river shove. If you’re folding then you might as well fold or shove the turn, almost no card can change your plan in this scenario unless multiple things hit. Like a 9,8 or a club
And the announcer is absolutely right that some hands that are bluffing are ahead. I’m not sure I like the turn call and river call with 2’s. Does the solver call here?
no
Nope i don't make the call
I'd have shoved at the turn tbh 😅
Heck no
I would have never called river with bp for my tour life as played, but I would have definitely shoved turn if I played at my current state.
2 days ago I would flip on the flop against this maniac chip leader.
I feel like this is fully being honest. In that situation I think I would have made the call. Given that pairs are harder to make in that situation and for all the reasons mentioned I feel like could have made the call. The club flush draw missed, the straights missed. I presume 4th got paid so I’m walking away up and I’m in it to win it. Close my eyes and call. Now all that being said in my low stakes games that’s a fold all day lol I play with people who never bluff the turn and river. They always have it! Always!
I would snap fold
I would have folded the turn already haha, makes me prolly a bad player :D
No
How can he do this? what cards did he put him on? maybe he is cheating
You're checking 100% of the time if you have a pair there. He's all in with nothing. Not a good play.
What? 😂
@@juha-pekkarainio8770 Shove with nothing is a good play.
Never in a life time.
Never in a million years. Im no Antonius.
easy call duh
no
No
No