What would YOU do on the river with 3♥ 3♦? Your Stack (BB): 263,000 Their Stack (LJ): 202,000 Pot: 43,000 Board: A♠ 5♣ 4♠ 3♠ 3♣ A) Check B) Bet 10,000 C) Bet 25,000 D) Bet 100,000
I would go with C. The problem with an overbet here is we're changing what hands we're representing - OTT, we mostly represent straights/flushes by a bet but going with an overbet is actually now saying we have a straight flush/quads/FH only. Also Brynn hasn't done anything to indicate he's super strong, so we're likely just going to get a lot of folds. However, if Brynn does have something strong then we're likely only going to get a call from him at most. However, by betting just 25k we're still representing a straight/flush. This means that Brynn has room to value-raise with a FH/nut flush or a bluff. So not only do we get his additional bet - we also then have the ability to get the lot bc we can now put in a 3b all in.
I'd bet small. You can't check, because someone with less than a straight will check back. You can't bet bigger, because someone with less than a straight can easily assume he's against a straight, and might very well fold his set. And, if Kenney DOES have the straight (indeed, he has As full), he'll be happy to put in a decent raise, and then you can raise again if you wish. EDIT: BTW, I don't think either player is going to worry about a straight flush. I really doubt any pro player will fold ANY hand of Aces full or better -- except POSSIBLY the low end of a 4-straight flush -- when the other guy is playing like he has the high end.
At equilibrium, Daniel should have very few leads on the turn, but the primary cards he should lead are 2x and 3x. (although those make up a tiny percentage of his range to the point you might as well not have any leads at all) In practice on river I'd probably have bet small trying to induce, putting this in my small bet range which would probably be roughtly 33%. Theory actually wants us to bet somewhere between 33 and 50% so slightly bigger seems better considering how much Ax Bryn should have. I do think when you go too big, you don't give Bryn the opportunity to check/raise or call light, so I think 50% is probably pushing the outer edge of what's a good size. ADDENDUM: To the question of whether Daniel would ever be taking this line with worse than 33 or a straight flush, the answer is that he's supposed to be taking the 3-bet river jam line with all of his boats, calling the check-raise with flushes and leaning towards folding straights. So while it's a gross spot, you generally have to call when you can beat value and D-Negs should have some worse value there.
Negreanu has been complaining about his luck recently but he certainly got lucky here. I think like most of us he probably only remembers the bad beats. And seeing Kenney lose is always a pleasure. 😂
hey just look what happened to him in poker after dark the early years lol he has a right to bitch alittle ,those beats he took would end others careers
I disagree acrually. You lose to TWO combos so is Negreana capable of bluffing more than the likelihood of his having either of those 2 hands? I think he is.
@@marksimpson2321 what would he be bluffing with tho? He would need some sort of Blocker for brynns calling range. So probably some sort of Ace. None of the Ax Combos can really take this line tho. I'd be interested in checking out, what kind of hands a solver would choose to bluff here, because it is probably very unintuitive. That being said, maybe daniel finds the roughly 0.5-1 bluff combos (didnt exactly calculate how many, but you dont need more because of the price you're setting and only repping 2 value combos)
@@lloydchristmas1086 obviously you're never folding AA in this spot. But the hand is honestly just a bluffcatcher here. It seems unlikely for 44 and 55 to shove BB vs UTG so AA only beat bluffs here
I would have made the mistake of betting small. I tend to do that with the super nuts, telling myself I need to get some value from the hand. I need to fix that leak and think more about the opponent’s range and how much that range would call.
How much chips wise it would call? Or size of his range like how often they would be calling w their range of hands? Lol I was like pure flip on what you meant here. Next time, please try to be more specific, initially, so people won’t be confused by what you mean. 😊
I think I randomize between betting small and large. The benefit of betting small is that I'm more likely to get value from a hand like A/K that Kenney might have, and then for his stronger hands (2 pair, flushes, straights. trips, full-houses) he's likely to check-raise. However the board has a LOT of hands that got there, so small bets might just get called, where Kenney would have called a larger bet. The larger bet is more polarizing, so I guess it depends on how you weight the distribution of hands that Kenney has here. If you think he's more likely to have one pair hands (like a random Ace) then bet small. If you think he's weighted more toward 3 of a kind/full houses/flushes, then going larger makes more sense. Kenney is unlikely to have a straight due to his position and action (maybe an odd Ace/deuce suited).
OK I listened - I think the logic behind your decision to bet large is sound, but you need to protect your range, so at least sometimes you want to bet small. I agree - checking is out of the question.
Thank you for your insight. However, I would like to point out that AK, in this spot, is in fact 2 pair. So your argument needs to be flushed out a bit further. Specifically, how the board pairing changes your bet size compared to when it doesn't.
@@andrewadami3920 Yes that's true but any other pair is going to be two pair too, so I don't think it materially affects the analysis. However I agree that the board pairing puts more full houses into your opponent's range, but I addressed that in my original comment. There are a lot of strong hands available here, most of which I think are likely to check-raise you. So you're going to get value from those no matter what, but if you want to also get value from weaker holdings, I think a smaller bet is in order. I think the only disagreement here between me and Jonathan is that he considered $25k small enough, and I'm sure he's right. I was originally thinking $10k, but that's probably wrong.
@@asnats3816 Nothing. It would have been an even worse beat for Badziakouski than it was for Kenney. Needs to be a straight flush to beat Daniel's Quads.
How can you call an all in by the river? Specially when there is a possibility that you might not have the best hand. Also, people rarely bluff all in by the turn or river.
Honestly, in this spot I focus on using a sizing that can be called by the most obvious strong hands in my opponents range, which here is very obviously AK (I think this is a much more common holding than a flush given the action). All the boats will raise a medium bet given we have flushes, so I'm not worried about getting max value. I think a 40-60% sizing is appropriate, so I bet 25k.
I'm not sure what to do. Perhaps c. The answer most depends on Kenney's range. In my - losing at the moment at microstakes - opinion, Kenney's line doesn't seem like an absolute monster. Can we put him on top full house? I'm not sure. If qe make 100k bet, we fold out almost everything except top fh perhaps and flush draws hit on the turn. guess go for C. Bet c 25,000. Kenney didn't raise me so possibly he hasn't got a set . Therefore, I'm perhaps less likely to get reraises
River I would bet 1/3 pot maybe less to induce a bluff from weaker hands. If villain holds a hand like AK with Ks or similar AQ KK QQ KQ with a spade they have potential to raise blocking the flush. Ax could also call getting 4 to 1. Also balances bluffs since we lead turn and bet river for 1/3 we get a great price on our bluffs.
Situations like that are why it's so hard to make money off poker. There's no way Kenney wasn't going to lose his entire stack here. I'd usually bet 3/4rd of the pot.
I'd bet small to induce. I'd read an article that you shouldn't opt for small bets on the river too much because it opens the door for opponents to re raise you more often and blow you off hands....
Negranu is never jamming in this spot with less than quads as Brenney has AA a lot with the way the hand has played. As crazy as it sounds Brenney has a bluff catcher with his top boat and Negranu is probably never bluffing here ,so “easy”fold.
I would lead small on the river, looking to get raised and for the opportunity to 3-bet shove. Although Idunno. I just played a hand this week where I raised the river on a 34699 board *with four spades* where I was initial raiser with red 44, and when my opponent 3-bet shoved, I was not good but didn’t realize it. These guys are way better and more experienced than I am and should know a 3-bet river shove is a major major hand: often quads and straight flushes. So maybe at the top level, you lead huge and hope to get called by AA specifically…
I think option C (the 25K bet Daniel picks) makes the most sense here. We want to pick a size that allows us to bet with 2x, low flushes, & straights.. If we go huge then we can't really bet those hands b/c we just fold out worse and get better to call. 25k still allows us to bluff w/ hands like 65hh or whatever and put a lot of pressure on Ax.
I feel like 20K is the right size bet for Daniel in that situation. A check is suspicious and so is 10K. Betting 20K makes him think maybe you're weak and trying to swipe the pot.
I’m confused why Jonathan calls Kenny’s hand the ‘effective nuts’ on the flop. Surely pocket aces is the best possible hand on an ace high flop? Am I missing something, or is it just because we haven’t seen the turn & river?
Bet big targeting hands like AxKs AxQs. Kenny's strongest hands can raise anyway so I'm not sure an over-bet is really warranted here (if Kenny had a lot of straights and weaker flushes that don't raise turn I'd like it a lot more but given his early position open he shouldn't). Of course Negreanu is also more likely to get paid off with I marginal bluff catcher than I am so he could definitely use that to his advantage.
Well knowing both players cards I would bet gigantic to try and make it look like I'm bluffing. If I had this hand only from Daniels perspective. I honestly dont know. I would think about what hands my opponent has and what I think he might call and make a bet based on that. If I figure he just has Ax. But likely not A2. Then I'd bet small. Then if he raised I would be jumping for joy inside. If I felt like maybe he was playing spades I would likely go for around a pot sized bet because I know if he hit the flush he's going to call a pot sized bet for sure. If I think he has junk I would check to induce a bluff.
I don't think straight flush is really a possibility here. So I disagree on that one both with Johnathan Little and the commentator. I have seen someone call with 32o in bb in cash game in a spot where I was really surprised, but here I don't think Kenny has to consider Negranu having a straight flush.
Had a similar hand several years back. I'm in the BB, folds around to the SB. I have Q3o so we just decide to see a flop. Flop comes QsQh3h, Small blind checks, I bet, he calls. Turn comes the 2h, He leads out and bets, I call. Cool, he hit his flush draw and I'll be all in on the river and happily take his stack. Turn comes the 6h, he leads with a pot sized bet, I just look at the board and I can't let the nut queens full go, I can't assume he just drew out the straight flush on this. I shove, he shows me the 45h. All you can say is good hand and hand him your money.
I'm not saying I could fold there, but with Negreanu really ever bluff there for 97 more into 350? If not, is he really 3 betting with a flush or a straight? I guess that still means you should call, because there's more A3, 53, 43, 44, 55 combos he can have for thick value that you still beat than the two combos you lose to. But I'm not entirely sure he jams with 44 or 34 there.
credit for Kenney to think about the all in. If you have aces putting your opponent on something better is really hard. Especially bc. of the board. If Negreanu has a straight or a flush he might go all in. Pocked 4s and 5s also. Him having the Aces and Negreanu the 3s is super unlikely.
Because the board has a flush and a straight, a large bet would be polarizing and tell your hand. The other person would know and possibly fold. Because of this, I would go for a mid-size bet of $25,000 to make it look bluffish to gain value. Ok, on to the video!
25k because a 10 k bet is just going to likely get a call from all his aces up hands. Just as a 25k bet will get called. A 100k bet will fold out too many aces up hands where 25k will induce more bluffs. Love the spot.
Hats Off to Kenney 👍 for even thinking that long... 99.9% people would snap with AAA33 there happily :D Kenney is no Doubt GENIOUS and TOP EARNER player....
i rlly dont think you can find a fold here ever unless you have some very specific live tell. like you KNOW your opponent doesn’t bluff. like folding top boat bc ur worried about two specific combos of hands is just not a way to play.And if people knew you were capable of folding top boat there you’d just get abused later on. Just a cooler
Bet 25k though I do like check raise also . Kenney is calling most bets so a smallish one would leave money on the table. Even if he ranges Daniel on a flush or a straight his highest FH takes care of those. Pocket 3s with runner runner - you would have to be extremely nitty to not play harder. 25spades? Yeah nah .
I bet gigantic because I have the effective nuts. If I don't bet gigantic here, how can I ever make big bluffs? I don't see the point in making a smaller bet. Do I really get called twice as often if I only bet $50k? Not in my experience (albeit I've never played at those stakes). So I just rip it in and if he folds, he folds.
I like 25K here but 100K seems like a decent sizing as well. A check looks like a trap, since not much changed since the turn. 10K is too thin. 25K is a size that could get a weak A to call. 100K is nice overbet and it's probably the better size and has a bluff feel to it (especially with what Brynn is holding. 25K will bring along some weaker hands that 100K would definitely fold. You want a call here.
He should check and fold... because that guy limpt bought in to see the flop then flat called then came out strong and went swinging on the 3.. arrrr fuck if it was me id prolly call
I would go all in. Because Kenny would not know what just happened to the universe and I justify the move because the price of gas keeps going up then down then up then.....
I personally might have just lost my poker face and smiled or something, maybe giggled , and then go All In and giggle some more , just saying. Just being honest
Clickbait title. A lot of poker channels (YT in general) do it. As much as I appreciate their content, the clickbait titles and thumbnails have got to go. Good content shouldn’t need misleading clickbait.
One in 1000 (basically) for runner runner quads. Not one in a billion. Not remotely close to even one in a million. And not even substantially greater odds when it manifests and just so happens to also produce a full house (given necessary board texture). IOW...not "unbelievable." Not incredible. It's guaranteed. Multiple times in any significant career. And carnage does NOT have to "balance out." It easily can outlast even the best bankroll management. You do yourself a disservice if you assert and believe anything to the contrary. Great call btw. Coolers aren't avoidable. Pretending you can do just that...suss out when you're up against number one or 1&2...WiTaF? The hell is wrong with you. Drink your damn cooler like you understand how the game do.
I would have flopped quads with pocket 3’s twice in a tournament but I was forced out of the hand both times pre flop. The first time AA opened and I called, but then the guy on my left 3 bet some garbage hand opening up the betting, and AA jammed covering me, so I had to fold. The 2nd time was in a Reno Peppermill daily tournament and it was almost the same situation. A guy opened with QJ off suit, another guy calls, and the 3rd guy opens up the betting going all in with Q7 off suit. With the betting reopened and two players behind me, I folded. But the original raiser only flatted letting the other guy in. I was so mad when the flop cam Q33 and the original raiser open jammed his whole stack.
![Lp. Сердце Вселенной #60 РОЖДЕНИЕ ЛОЛОЛОШКИ [Финал] • Майнкрафт](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YoR0pAV9FVQ/mqdefault.jpg)
![He LOSES $310,000 & Then THIS Happens! [SHOCKING Poker Drama]](/img/n.gif)
What would YOU do on the river with 3♥ 3♦?
Your Stack (BB): 263,000
Their Stack (LJ): 202,000
Pot: 43,000
Board: A♠ 5♣ 4♠ 3♠ 3♣
A) Check
B) Bet 10,000
C) Bet 25,000
D) Bet 100,000
I'd bet 25k I think 10k is to small. The bigger varant is a bit to big.
I would go with C. The problem with an overbet here is we're changing what hands we're representing - OTT, we mostly represent straights/flushes by a bet but going with an overbet is actually now saying we have a straight flush/quads/FH only. Also Brynn hasn't done anything to indicate he's super strong, so we're likely just going to get a lot of folds. However, if Brynn does have something strong then we're likely only going to get a call from him at most.
However, by betting just 25k we're still representing a straight/flush. This means that Brynn has room to value-raise with a FH/nut flush or a bluff. So not only do we get his additional bet - we also then have the ability to get the lot bc we can now put in a 3b all in.
I would probably put out a small blocker bet (10k) in hopes my opponent raises.
I'd bet small. You can't check, because someone with less than a straight will check back. You can't bet bigger, because someone with less than a straight can easily assume he's against a straight, and might very well fold his set. And, if Kenney DOES have the straight (indeed, he has As full), he'll be happy to put in a decent raise, and then you can raise again if you wish. EDIT: BTW, I don't think either player is going to worry about a straight flush. I really doubt any pro player will fold ANY hand of Aces full or better -- except POSSIBLY the low end of a 4-straight flush -- when the other guy is playing like he has the high end.
At equilibrium, Daniel should have very few leads on the turn, but the primary cards he should lead are 2x and 3x. (although those make up a tiny percentage of his range to the point you might as well not have any leads at all)
In practice on river I'd probably have bet small trying to induce, putting this in my small bet range which would probably be roughtly 33%. Theory actually wants us to bet somewhere between 33 and 50% so slightly bigger seems better considering how much Ax Bryn should have. I do think when you go too big, you don't give Bryn the opportunity to check/raise or call light, so I think 50% is probably pushing the outer edge of what's a good size.
ADDENDUM: To the question of whether Daniel would ever be taking this line with worse than 33 or a straight flush, the answer is that he's supposed to be taking the 3-bet river jam line with all of his boats, calling the check-raise with flushes and leaning towards folding straights. So while it's a gross spot, you generally have to call when you can beat value and D-Negs should have some worse value there.
Negreanu has been complaining about his luck recently but he certainly got lucky here. I think like most of us he probably only remembers the bad beats. And seeing Kenney lose is always a pleasure. 😂
He ran extremely bad all year long, but yeah got lucky once early in this tourney and ended up winning the whole thing iirc
hey just look what happened to him in poker after dark the early years lol he has a right to bitch alittle ,those beats he took would end others careers
Just one of those spots where you know you're most likely beat, but it's just not in the realm of possibility to fold^^
I disagree acrually. You lose to TWO combos so is Negreana capable of bluffing more than the likelihood of his having either of those 2 hands? I think he is.
@@marksimpson2321 what would he be bluffing with tho? He would need some sort of Blocker for brynns calling range. So probably some sort of Ace. None of the Ax Combos can really take this line tho. I'd be interested in checking out, what kind of hands a solver would choose to bluff here, because it is probably very unintuitive. That being said, maybe daniel finds the roughly 0.5-1 bluff combos (didnt exactly calculate how many, but you dont need more because of the price you're setting and only repping 2 value combos)
@@kitbillion7783 He could of had set of 4s or 5s. Nobody is folding Aces full here...nobody.
@@lloydchristmas1086 obviously you're never folding AA in this spot. But the hand is honestly just a bluffcatcher here. It seems unlikely for 44 and 55 to shove BB vs UTG so AA only beat bluffs here
you call here with deuces full with smile ...
I would have made the mistake of betting small. I tend to do that with the super nuts, telling myself I need to get some value from the hand. I need to fix that leak and think more about the opponent’s range and how much that range would call.
How much chips wise it would call? Or size of his range like how often they would be calling w their range of hands? Lol I was like pure flip on what you meant here. Next time, please try to be more specific, initially, so people won’t be confused by what you mean. 😊
Dnegs can never again say he's unlucky (aka the WPT)
He knows how lucky he was here 🤷♂️
I think I randomize between betting small and large. The benefit of betting small is that I'm more likely to get value from a hand like A/K that Kenney might have, and then for his stronger hands (2 pair, flushes, straights. trips, full-houses) he's likely to check-raise. However the board has a LOT of hands that got there, so small bets might just get called, where Kenney would have called a larger bet.
The larger bet is more polarizing, so I guess it depends on how you weight the distribution of hands that Kenney has here. If you think he's more likely to have one pair hands (like a random Ace) then bet small. If you think he's weighted more toward 3 of a kind/full houses/flushes, then going larger makes more sense.
Kenney is unlikely to have a straight due to his position and action (maybe an odd Ace/deuce suited).
OK I listened - I think the logic behind your decision to bet large is sound, but you need to protect your range, so at least sometimes you want to bet small. I agree - checking is out of the question.
Thank you for your insight. However, I would like to point out that AK, in this spot, is in fact 2 pair. So your argument needs to be flushed out a bit further. Specifically, how the board pairing changes your bet size compared to when it doesn't.
@@andrewadami3920 Yes that's true but any other pair is going to be two pair too, so I don't think it materially affects the analysis.
However I agree that the board pairing puts more full houses into your opponent's range, but I addressed that in my original comment. There are a lot of strong hands available here, most of which I think are likely to check-raise you. So you're going to get value from those no matter what, but if you want to also get value from weaker holdings, I think a smaller bet is in order.
I think the only disagreement here between me and Jonathan is that he considered $25k small enough, and I'm sure he's right. I was originally thinking $10k, but that's probably wrong.
Good thing 7/6 hearts folded. He would have gone broke too if he called the flop bet.
Damn, imagine if the other dude decided to play his suited 6-7...
and what 6-7suited does there?!
@@asnats3816 Nothing. It would have been an even worse beat for Badziakouski than it was for Kenney. Needs to be a straight flush to beat Daniel's Quads.
How can you call an all in by the river? Specially when there is a possibility that you might not have the best hand. Also, people rarely bluff all in by the turn or river.
hair n beard dye job is top of the range
Honestly, in this spot I focus on using a sizing that can be called by the most obvious strong hands in my opponents range, which here is very obviously AK (I think this is a much more common holding than a flush given the action). All the boats will raise a medium bet given we have flushes, so I'm not worried about getting max value.
I think a 40-60% sizing is appropriate, so I bet 25k.
I'm not sure what to do. Perhaps c.
The answer most depends on Kenney's range. In my - losing at the moment at microstakes - opinion, Kenney's line doesn't seem like an absolute monster. Can we put him on top full house? I'm not sure. If qe make 100k bet, we fold out almost everything except top fh perhaps and flush draws hit on the turn. guess go for C.
Bet c 25,000. Kenney didn't raise me so possibly he hasn't got a set . Therefore, I'm perhaps less likely to get reraises
What's the second nuts???
The quads. First nuts is straight flush
River I would bet 1/3 pot maybe less to induce a bluff from weaker hands. If villain holds a hand like AK with Ks or similar AQ KK QQ KQ with a spade they have potential to raise blocking the flush. Ax could also call getting 4 to 1. Also balances bluffs since we lead turn and bet river for 1/3 we get a great price on our bluffs.
the thumbnail... a big "?" and above it reads quads vs full house. Genius
Situations like that are why it's so hard to make money off poker. There's no way Kenney wasn't going to lose his entire stack here. I'd usually bet 3/4rd of the pot.
I'd bet small to induce. I'd read an article that you shouldn't opt for small bets on the river too much because it opens the door for opponents to re raise you more often and blow you off hands....
I love the lead on an A543 board out of the BB, though the flushes will favor Bryn..
Negranu is never jamming in this spot with less than quads as Brenney has AA a lot with the way the hand has played.
As crazy as it sounds Brenney has a bluff catcher with his top boat and Negranu is probably never bluffing here ,so “easy”fold.
I'm not sure how much he would call, but I'd probably get excited and shove all of it, hoping for a call.
Then again, you probably wouldn’t be playing a $250,000 buy-in tournament, in the first place. 😂
I would lead small on the river, looking to get raised and for the opportunity to 3-bet shove.
Although Idunno. I just played a hand this week where I raised the river on a 34699 board *with four spades* where I was initial raiser with red 44, and when my opponent 3-bet shoved, I was not good but didn’t realize it. These guys are way better and more experienced than I am and should know a 3-bet river shove is a major major hand: often quads and straight flushes. So maybe at the top level, you lead huge and hope to get called by AA specifically…
I think option C (the 25K bet Daniel picks) makes the most sense here. We want to pick a size that allows us to bet with 2x, low flushes, & straights.. If we go huge then we can't really bet those hands b/c we just fold out worse and get better to call. 25k still allows us to bluff w/ hands like 65hh or whatever and put a lot of pressure on Ax.
He didn't bet 25,000 but 200,000
I feel like 20K is the right size bet for Daniel in that situation. A check is suspicious and so is 10K. Betting 20K makes him think maybe you're weak and trying to swipe the pot.
On the turn or the river?
Be more specific please, initially, w your speculations, in the future.
I’m confused why Jonathan calls Kenny’s hand the ‘effective nuts’ on the flop. Surely pocket aces is the best possible hand on an ace high flop? Am I missing something, or is it just because we haven’t seen the turn & river?
The nuts means best possible hand. On that flop, top set is “the nuts” up until that point.
wouldn’t have believed the run out if I didn’t see it ✌️all the money was going in regardless of how much he bet
Bet big targeting hands like AxKs AxQs. Kenny's strongest hands can raise anyway so I'm not sure an over-bet is really warranted here (if Kenny had a lot of straights and weaker flushes that don't raise turn I'd like it a lot more but given his early position open he shouldn't). Of course Negreanu is also more likely to get paid off with I marginal bluff catcher than I am so he could definitely use that to his advantage.
Well knowing both players cards I would bet gigantic to try and make it look like I'm bluffing. If I had this hand only from Daniels perspective. I honestly dont know. I would think about what hands my opponent has and what I think he might call and make a bet based on that. If I figure he just has Ax. But likely not A2. Then I'd bet small. Then if he raised I would be jumping for joy inside. If I felt like maybe he was playing spades I would likely go for around a pot sized bet because I know if he hit the flush he's going to call a pot sized bet for sure. If I think he has junk I would check to induce a bluff.
At what point was Daniel 'about to lose $300k' - thumbs down for the clickbait title.
I don't think straight flush is really a possibility here. So I disagree on that one both with Johnathan Little and the commentator. I have seen someone call with 32o in bb in cash game in a spot where I was really surprised, but here I don't think Kenny has to consider Negranu having a straight flush.
Had a similar hand several years back. I'm in the BB, folds around to the SB. I have Q3o so we just decide to see a flop. Flop comes QsQh3h, Small blind checks, I bet, he calls. Turn comes the 2h, He leads out and bets, I call. Cool, he hit his flush draw and I'll be all in on the river and happily take his stack. Turn comes the 6h, he leads with a pot sized bet, I just look at the board and I can't let the nut queens full go, I can't assume he just drew out the straight flush on this. I shove, he shows me the 45h. All you can say is good hand and hand him your money.
I'm not saying I could fold there, but with Negreanu really ever bluff there for 97 more into 350? If not, is he really 3 betting with a flush or a straight? I guess that still means you should call, because there's more A3, 53, 43, 44, 55 combos he can have for thick value that you still beat than the two combos you lose to. But I'm not entirely sure he jams with 44 or 34 there.
Surprised Negreanu can grow such a beard. Looks good on him.
Rogaine.
I would overbet targetting slow played flush. I think all option have some merrit :):)
credit for Kenney to think about the all in. If you have aces putting your opponent on something better is really hard. Especially bc. of the board. If Negreanu has a straight or a flush he might go all in. Pocked 4s and 5s also. Him having the Aces and Negreanu the 3s is super unlikely.
Seeing as i can see the board I would check jam
Because the board has a flush and a straight, a large bet would be polarizing and tell your hand. The other person would know and possibly fold. Because of this, I would go for a mid-size bet of $25,000 to make it look bluffish to gain value. Ok, on to the video!
25k because a 10 k bet is just going to likely get a call from all his aces up hands. Just as a 25k bet will get called. A 100k bet will fold out too many aces up hands where 25k will induce more bluffs. Love the spot.
I think the play is go to big and represent either a bluff or the nuts.
If this was PLO Daniel would have had 5332 with 52ss.
I'd bet small to get value from Ax. I imagine most flushes and certainly any full houses are going to raise me anyway.
Hats Off to Kenney 👍 for even thinking that long... 99.9% people would snap with AAA33 there happily :D Kenney is no Doubt GENIOUS and TOP EARNER player....
Does he get any advantage for thinking longer? Nitroll.
I need them to stop calling him sensei Kenney.
I think something like "Dodgy Bloke" or "Toad Licker" would be more appropriate.
i rlly dont think you can find a fold here ever unless you have some very specific live tell. like you KNOW your opponent doesn’t bluff. like folding top boat bc ur worried about two specific combos of hands is just not a way to play.And if people knew you were capable of folding top boat there you’d just get abused later on.
Just a cooler
Just imagine if he didn't fold the 6/7, great fold by him. Lol
Bet 25k though I do like check raise also . Kenney is calling most bets so a smallish one would leave money on the table. Even if he ranges Daniel on a flush or a straight his highest FH takes care of those. Pocket 3s with runner runner - you would have to be extremely nitty to not play harder. 25spades? Yeah nah .
I would bet pot. But in these cases this hand plays itself all the money is going in no matter what. Just a cooler.
Like the 25k…and since when does Daniel look like a Navy Seal? Did he start eating steak, or is the sweatshirt a size too big?
Can Dnegs have any bluffs there ?
good hand review
I bet gigantic because I have the effective nuts. If I don't bet gigantic here, how can I ever make big bluffs? I don't see the point in making a smaller bet. Do I really get called twice as often if I only bet $50k? Not in my experience (albeit I've never played at those stakes). So I just rip it in and if he folds, he folds.
And now seeing what you wrote - and what Negreanu did - that makes more sense than what I would have done.
Kenny folds that, and he instantly becomes the goat imo. He made the read but didn't act on it and had to wait for Uber outside
The classic overbet, that looks like a bluff!
Bet a size that will get called by an ace and get raised by a flush.
So medium, 25k.
What are the other two nuts on this hand
Straight flush and quads. Both very unlikely so his call makes sense. Really bad beat lol.
I like 25K here but 100K seems like a decent sizing as well. A check looks like a trap, since not much changed since the turn. 10K is too thin. 25K is a size that could get a weak A to call. 100K is nice overbet and it's probably the better size and has a bluff feel to it (especially with what Brynn is holding. 25K will bring along some weaker hands that 100K would definitely fold. You want a call here.
He should check and fold... because that guy limpt bought in to see the flop then flat called then came out strong and went swinging on the 3.. arrrr fuck if it was me id prolly call
I'm betting 25k in hopes of a raise or shove.
I would go all in. Because Kenny would not know what just happened to the universe and I justify the move because the price of gas keeps going up then down then up then.....
Always around half pot! Never checking the river here.
I would of probably bet around 25 I feel like, wouldn’t want him to check back.
Bet 10,000 induce a raise from a weak bet or get value called by a weak holding
5:37 Bryn Krinny 😂
Why does it say Negreanu is about to LOSE 300k?
To trick us
Jonathan bluffed on the title.
bet half pot, if kenney has a good hand he may raise. you do not want to check and let kenney check back
As far as im concerned it's very silly to not snap call, bordering on disrespectful
I personally might have just lost my poker face and smiled or something, maybe giggled , and then go All In and giggle some more , just saying. Just being honest
Only Gabe Kaplan should be allowed to commentate on poker.
I would bet around 150,000.
I mean that not knowing BKs cards.
how did dnegs lose 300k?
Clickbait title. A lot of poker channels (YT in general) do it. As much as I appreciate their content, the clickbait titles and thumbnails have got to go. Good content shouldn’t need misleading clickbait.
They still letting brynn hang out huh
Haxton normally would have 3 bet that but he couldn’t see past the idiotic face diaper he was wearing
Folded my quad 77s to quads jacks....He said he was supposed to get paid their🤬....😂🤣 ...N😂t by me..
Excellent analysis of the 25k. That’s exactly what I would have done if I wasn’t broke and riddled with anxiety in that position
If you fold top full house, why do you play poker
Check raise????
$300k or 300,000 chips?
Ruined the hand with the title 🤦🏻♂️
Check
The HUGE difference here is - If the roles were reversed, Daniel would be breaking cameras and crying for 3 months...
I would go all in
Clickbait. Everyone knows kid poker runs hot. Eventually.
Legit cooler.
would have chosen 15k-20k.
One in 1000 (basically) for runner runner quads. Not one in a billion. Not remotely close to even one in a million. And not even substantially greater odds when it manifests and just so happens to also produce a full house (given necessary board texture). IOW...not "unbelievable." Not incredible. It's guaranteed. Multiple times in any significant career. And carnage does NOT have to "balance out." It easily can outlast even the best bankroll management. You do yourself a disservice if you assert and believe anything to the contrary.
Great call btw. Coolers aren't avoidable. Pretending you can do just that...suss out when you're up against number one or 1&2...WiTaF? The hell is wrong with you. Drink your damn cooler like you understand how the game do.
C) Bet 25,000
I would bet a bluff amount
Would go small, probably.
I'm betting 20-25k otr.
I would bet pot (43k)
Bet 25k. Bait them to go all in
All in.
I would have flopped quads with pocket 3’s twice in a tournament but I was forced out of the hand both times pre flop. The first time AA opened and I called, but then the guy on my left 3 bet some garbage hand opening up the betting, and AA jammed covering me, so I had to fold. The 2nd time was in a Reno Peppermill daily tournament and it was almost the same situation. A guy opened with QJ off suit, another guy calls, and the 3rd guy opens up the betting going all in with Q7 off suit. With the betting reopened and two players behind me, I folded. But the original raiser only flatted letting the other guy in. I was so mad when the flop cam Q33 and the original raiser open jammed his whole stack.
boy, annoying comnentating slow down, work on a voice tone that's less grating!
I hate the title and the thumbnail.
Jam
$25k bet
Small bet to induce a raise
that was just painful to watch
Oh 5-2 spades ok got it
Daniel could easily rule out 2, 5 Spades post flop. No worries for Daniel here. Only focusing on how to maximize pay out.
I would bet the pot probably