The psychology behind irrational decisions - Sara Garofalo
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- Опубліковано 6 жов 2024
- View full lesson: ed.ted.com/less...
Often people make decisions that are not “rational” from a purely economical point of view - meaning that they don’t necessarily lead to the best result. Why is that? Are we just bad at dealing with numbers and odds? Or is there a psychological mechanism behind it? Sara Garofalo explains heuristics, problem-solving approaches based on previous experience and intuition rather than analysis.
Lesson by Sara Garofalo, animation by TOGETHER.
Irrational decisions go well beyond just the phenomena discussed in this video. Humans are not so much a rational animal as a rationalizing animal. We are very good at coming up with reasons for things that we already want to do.
+LagiNaLangAko23 actually I'm aware of this, I first want to do something an then I come up with the reasons behind it.
Physics Videos by Eugene Khutoryansky 7
so true
YOU are here?😲
omg i should be doing science hw but im watching this lmaoo
I enjoyed the examples in this video. I like to think about irrational decisions like optical illusions in that we perceive the situation incorrectly. Just as we can recognize optical illusions by recognizing the patterns, we can also overcome irrational decisions.
Check out MindYourDecisions' channel. He makes videos on maths and game theory.
Irrational decisions involve trusting our earlier impressions without evaluating them. Contrary to popular misconception, the impressions arent bad things in themselves and are are the root of creative associations. Having those impressions (as intutions) can be invaluable in generating solutions which rationalization itself has no access to. It's best to use all of our mental resources.
He is here!
Mind your decisions😁😁
LOL!!!!!!! THIS VIDEO JUST STATED THAT I WAS NOT LIKE MOST PEOPLE!!!!!!!! LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :D :D
for the beginning I chose both guaranteed, after many opened fifa packs I learned that I shouldn't try my chances
+Boca Juniors Lol. Too true. That's me, but with Counter Strike cases.
+Jonathan Paul same here,still waiting for that knife to come :) (From CS go cases)
Same, except most of us didn't open Fifa packs to figure that out!
You don't have personal levels of "chances". It turns out you're irrational after all, based on that explanation.
TheReddaredevil223 No, the original poster is not irrational. He just might make irrational decisions. He still is a rational human.
I wouldn't flip the coin in ether situation, because I will take a sure loss over a possible greater loss any time
and I will take a sure gain over a possible greater gain if there is an equal chance of no gain at all.
this also explains why I don't understand most pricing today, it's focused on squeezing out more money, rather than having anything to do with the actual product.
I am a mouse, safe cheese is good cheese.
same
+Tristra Gyopsie If the sure gain is 1000 and for flipping a coin there is a 50% chance to get 10000 and 50% chance to get 500, will you still choose the sure gain?
taking a sure gain in this scenario would be a irrational decision, wouldn't it?
I think we should make a decision base on risk-reward and chance, not the surest way but the most logical way.
PS sorry for my English.
Cheese is bad for mice, they just eat it to survive.
LOL, True.
+BlazingSun46 I agree with you :) There'll never be such choice though :P
Loss Aversion is a powerful motivator for a great many people. Whenever you are in the position of having to persuade someone, you will often be more effective when you focus your argument on what the other person has to LOSE, rather than something they have to gain.
i am SO gonna use this from now on
Aggred
@@deansamv Happy to help. By the way, I checked out your channel. You are a very creative person.
@@pritamboy9889 I clicked to see your channel. You have a lot of subscribers despite not having that many videos posted. Impressive.
@@BeSmarterFaster haha thank you :D
"The intuitive answer may not be the right one after all."
^My brain during an exam.
Intuitively 2+2=4, BUUUT IT'S EXAM SO LET'S THINK ABOUT IT AGAIN. Every time -_-
@@Yorick257 let's jist confirm it with d calculator for once😂😂
@@Yorick257 my brain didn't know how to process 5+9. So I used a calculator. Not regretted a bit.
Lol I read this comment right as she was saying it in the video🤣🤣
I suffer from the same thing, I second guess my decisions in exams a lot ua-cam.com/video/we6v7cX0k44/v-deo.html
I bet most people are watching this video instead doing their work, what a irrational decision.
Watching a Ted-Ed video is hardly ever an irrational decision.
+MasterXG I'm watching after my last final, of which was related to this video
+Josh Reyes +1
yes!
+MasterXG You are right!
TED-ED
thanks for breaking it down elementary style.
loved it.
+1
ditto, my thoughts exactly :)
What about the irrational decision of watching this instead of studying for my exam?
You just do that because your brain knows its more rewarding
Because it is an irattion choise
Procrastinating, my friend. We're in the same position.
5 stars
@@iquestioneverything3426 False, you do it because your brain has adapted to do things that you find more enjoyable, not necessarily rewarding.
These videos should be watched in all classrooms. Ted-ed is the best teacher I've ever had.😊
+Jaden Yuki Your hair looks like a Kuriboh.
+Nas Matic
Tell that to NaturalNews and shit like that :)
i chose to flip on the first one and to not flip on the second lmao
Me too haha
+BRVvideos
yo
Ayy, I love your Land of Fairies Nico icon.
me too lol I was so surprized cuz I thought the was the common choice
Me too!
“Name a yellow fruit”
*orange*
On the inside
Lmfao
Lemon
@@paradox5468 banana
@@asterism_698 i think its yellow.
I like that you've used a lot of example tests in this video
Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" go more in depth on these matters - a very good read!
Reasons of irrational decisions:
-Aversion fallacy
-Conjunction fallacy
-Anchoring effect
Thanks
- Gene
There’s a whole lot more than that
I'm so used to calculate the expected value that I didn't care what I chose for the two examples. and for the cubes, I immediately excluded b as it contains a, and c as it is longer than a and is with a more wrong frequency of colours.
math is good. quick and correct math is better. replace heuristics with it is even better.
very well.... may I ask how were you able to develop these practise of calculating expected value so much that you became better+quicker at it?
I have been researching and exploring on the basis of decision making process, the effects like cognitive biases, intuition, probability effects and actual data and facts. I'm shocked by how much wrong and blind we can be in many scenarios.
For the gameshow, i chose to risk the flip on the first round and stick with 500 guaranteed loss on the second.
For the dice, i chose B because it had more green dice lol
I don't like the idea of not trusting your gut though, i feel like it will lead to indecisiveness and paranoia. I think being able to trust your gut, grow from incorrect choices and learn from your mistakes which then informs your gut decisions later in life is an important skill to hone. Not worrying about what's the most optimal decision for everything.
hmm Im super into optimisation and I think it's good on it's own but not in most enviroments
have chosen same in the first example
I took the ones with no risk, lol.
Me too and then the narater said if your like most people you chose 500 $ and the the coin flip and I was like no I didnt
+Connor Waud That doesn't mean the narrator is wrong, that just means that you are not one of the "most people"
I did too!
we have a hard time accepting these, together with other WHY questions that psychology tends to answer, ie to the right of ur youtube page with other suggestions of youtube videos on psychology by TED
I flipped the coins z times x'))
don't gamble...working for every cent is frustrating...but the painful experience will also stop you for buying something you don't need.
so many time in psychology they say "intuition is always wrong". I am glad to finally have a proper answear.
Great video. We need to teach these to kids. I'm glad TED-ed is stepping up when our education systems fail.
0:49
Ted-Ed "If you're like most people"
Me: Definitely not.
The irony is that if you assume you're not like most people, you are like most people. Most people assume that they are unique.
@@Morneisia the statement has already been declared thus other who don't choose the same are not most people.
Thanks for summarizing "Thinking Fast and Slow" '
+Uncerten I was looking for this. Seen so many videos on UA-cam that just basically picked 1 or a couple of chapters and made a video.
I died at 3:45. That scream!
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I was exactly hoping badly to read this comment about the scream!! I loved it too, honestly brought smile in the video haha
Thank u for uploading this video, I love when we have more material available on utube that talks abt cognitive bias... Thinking fast and slow - Daniel Khaneman is a good read
Our teacher did an experiment once.
We were split into groups with people whose phone numbers ended with 30 and below and those over 30. Seperated from each other we had to guess the value of a book (pretty big one with pictures etc). The first group said it was about 30-35$ worth, the others went over 60$.
0:50 You are EXACTLY wrong.
+infrabread true had the same
+sjohban de vos same
And i didnt even think it through i just said it but it is logical
+infrabread Lol, Same for me.
+infrabread I dont think she is wrong. Psychology is not an exact science, but it describes well known patterns. I'm pretty sure out of the 4possible choices the one described was the most chosen, possibly over 50%. Its just that people who had other choices are more likely to comment it.
Can we take a moment and give credit to the editor because the person did an amazing job!
This whole video can be explained simply by people not wanting to take a loss.
The outcomes are the same but what you started with is different!
more and more the quality of these Ted-Ed videos are becoming more like TedX. It's been a while since I saw any videos of quality now.
that was the first point
Love how they used the flat earth theory as an example for theories easilly able to be proven wrong
Very short recap of Thinking: Fast and Slow
Gaining something has much less weight cuz earning something or when things come at us we believe we deserve such thing, but when we loss something, we expirience an intense feeling of lack that we think we don't deserve, which is why losing has much more impact than gaining something
Next time you are going to make a decision, understand that the intuitive answer might not be the right one especially in situations involving multiple details, numbers or probability. The irrational decisions that you make are a result of ‘heuristics’ (problem-solving approaches based on previous experiences and intuition rather than careful analysis) which is your response to ‘loss aversion’, or people's tendency to prefer avoiding losses to acquiring equivalent gains. However, don’t try to completely block out your brain heuristics because they can be quite effective when there is no time to logically analyze all the possibilities.
This is basically taken from "Thinking fast and slow" a very good book, give it some credit!
Irrational is acknowledging reality as it is.
This video is about logic.
People get mistaken between logic and rationality.
My parents can be idiots.
I am colorblind and I could not see for myself the examples you listed :(
I chose the coin flip in the first round and the bonus in the second round. WTF?
OH MY GOD SAME! Btw it's called penalty for the second round sinc ur losing money
This might be one of my favorite videossss
Honestly I would take the bonus and the loss, because +/-500$ risk for 50% chance only worths it if you have a lot more money than that. It's not just about mathematics and psychology, your financial situation matters too.
They specifically chose amounts that aren't life-changing to their average viewer, which would of course change what's rational. (i.e. they wouldn't suffer dire consequences it they only won $1000,- over $1500,-.)
It's a different story if for example $500,- decided over whether you can securely feed your children and send them to school or not.
Really appreciate your knowledge Sara
Thank you for such a great deep insight👏✨
When it comes to automatic life-saving decisions, intuition outwits logic every time.
I went with the coin toss on the first round and the automatic loss on the second. I think of game show money as imaginary until the end of the round, so I'll gamble on a chance of gaining nothing, but I'd rather be more secure once I've already 'earned' it.
Basically, it's just a different flavor of loss-aversion: I'd rather gain nothing than lose double.
There you go!!
Anyone in Dungeons and Dragons would immediately tell you to play it safe and never roll or flip anything
Loss aversion really does make sense from an evolutionary standpoint. Loosing things usually causes more grief than the success from getting them.
If you have a car, the ways your life could go wrong are much greater if you lost it than the ways your life could get better with two cars. Sure, having a second car is great- if one of them has something wrong with it, you still have the other one. But if you loose your only car, you can’t get work without public transport.
Over the years, I've come to realize that most people behave irationally.
In so far as every person has at least one irrational belief, I agree with you. Beyond that, people are more or less irrational when compared across a variety of different subjects and beliefs.
***** Your statement is more accurate. ^_^
Beautiful, beautiful animation! Loved it!
Its actually mainly because i cannot calculate all posible outcomes in that short of a time span and just go for the guaranteed option.
+omgfackdehell But there are only three possible outcomes in either situation?
huh968 Yes, but i'm pretty dumb
+omgfackdehell haha, yeah, me too. This video is too accurate
i actually choose the opposite
Same, I chose the opposite; risk the win and guarantee the lesser loss.
Assassin EnderGirl
👍👍👍👍👍👍
+Alaa m were too clever for this world 😂
You may be clever, but you might not have noticed that you wrote " were" when you should have actually written " we're". How is that for clever.
Kiran Puri Shut up, loser.
Adam Smith wrote about this in his Theory of Moral Sentiments. Other behavioral economic ideas are also found, like "fairness".
I would not have taken either chance in the game show scenario.
''Consider that the intuitive answer might not be the right one after all''
I experienced just the opposite in every single test I took
“Give me a name beginning with an H”
*José*
I feel like sometimes the very essence of intuitive thinking makes us feel satisfied about the choice we make and for that if the decision is not really affecting anyone negatively i think there's nothing wrong in going ahead with it
i wouldn't flip the coin in either of them xD
id flip the coin in both.
TED-ed never fails to impress me!!!!
For me most of the time, my initial decision (intuitive) is often the best so I always end up regretting for picking the other options.... Fml
This is SO Me! Thanks for the explanation.
I never chose to flip the coin
One problem with the game show example is that it does not account for variance in probability, meaning the choices have the same mean but still quite different. You would take the guaranteed bonus in both examples because they have equal means but less variance in outcome, meaning they are less risky.
I'm not like most people. I went with the simple guarantee both times because I know my luck is terrible.
same, i also know my luck is terrible, so i played safe both times
I gain new knowledge in this educational video. Thanks Ted Ed.
I'm curious: How many people chose the third dice sequence?!
and how many chose A?
Me cos, there's a way higher chance of getting red than green.
@@Prudii there's actually a more higher chance you'll get green than red
While I understand the overall concept of the video, there are a couple of issues:
The projected outcome of the game in whole is correct, but once you make it to the second round, the Ev of your decision has changed drastically where you should ALWAYS be taking the coin flip as it’s the only outcome leading to a positive Ev.
As a poker player, we thrive off of a game that is designed just like this one (losing outcome due to rake) but can overcome this disadvantage by making +Ev decisions along the way because while the gaming environment is static (all players lose to the rake) the independent variables found within the game and the variance of them makes this profitable for a percentage of the players, with the “rounds” being equivalent to preflop/flop/turn/river decisions. The expectation changes at each street, but in the end, can be positive for one of the players involved. These types of independent variables means that making the wrong decisions will have different outcomes of Ev, regardless of the game itself, which is how players in both poker and the example game walk away with money.
Hope you all are having a great day!
You can read more about cognitive biases, logical fallacies, and heuristics in Daniel Kahneman's spectacular book "Thinking, Fast and Slow".
Good summary for part 2 of the book “Thinking fast and slow” (Daniel Kahneman)
i flipped a coin for both. i guess I don't care because getting $1000 is good enough.
yea i need a telescope!
Another very informative video by Ted Ex
"Thinking, fast and slow, " By Daniel Kahneman. You're welcome :)
Exactly! It’s like trying to know the brain. Nobody exactly knows how it works,but famous people just guessed how it keeps up all these complex thoughts from a little stickfigure to knowing when to catch a ball
Can anyone recommend books or textbooks on the topic? I'm rather familiar with the topic, but I'm interested in how writers go about teaching it.
That would be interesting
+d3st88 Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman goes into detail about a lot of this stuff (among other things) and is excellently written.
Thanks, but already read that. Twice.
I actually saw both choices as being about the same, in both cases.
So ultimately, I wasn't sure what to pick.
I would take the guaranteed bonus/loss at both times.
Does this count as a rash, irrational decision? I quit my job because I was disgusted by my ex-colleague's opinion about a worker who almost passed. To give a fairly quantitative backstory, we took him to her office for a few mistakes he made, involving filter and touching people. He was always a very outgoing, tactile person, so of course, he never _meant_ harm or discomfort, but I was firm with him and told him handshakes and work/school conversations only. I even insensitively said to my ex-colleague "Is there anything you want to add." That night, our worker got into an accident and almost lost his life. It knocked some sense into me and made me realize that I mishandled the situation. When I expressed this to my ex-colleague, she insisted we didn't do anything wrong. As sorry and distraught as she is for his accident, and happy and relieved that he survived, she says it doesn't change her opinion for his "wrongdoing". That we would always be right and he would always be wrong. I decided then that she doesn't care *enough* for our worker--not as much as I did--and I decided I couldn't work with someone like her. What do you guys think? Was that an absurd decision to make? When someone flawed almost goes, you're supposed to appreciate them and maybe even see where _you_ went wrong too. I do now; my ex-colleague doesn't. We never should've taken him to the office. I _alone_ should've spoken to him respectfully in the hall or something. He is not a bad guy or a handsy creep.
Not crediting Daniel Kahneman on 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' = irrational decision
Thinking fast and slow is an excellent book
I actually don't think that loss aversion is irrational. Say you get the choice between a guaranteed £100 and a 1% chance of winning £10,000. In monetary terms, yes, the expected pay-off is £100 but in terms of utility, we know that there are diminishing returns i.e. the first £100 I spend will bring me much more pleasure than the next £100 and if I'm a billionaire, I'm not 1000x as happy as a millionaire. Therefore, the utility payout for the 1% of getting £10,000 option is lower than the guaranteed £100.
I'm the opposite of most people, I chose to flip the coin in the first round and take the guaranteed loss in the second.
idiot
+Nicholas “LB” Braden doesn t matter is a wrong answer , does not make u special
IMMEDte dissassociating fallacy
+Nicholas “LB” Braden I think it's because she said we had won 1000 from the first round, so at the start of the second you're like 'if I spend 500 I'm still 500 up'. Or that's how I thought of it anyway.
Challen Bellamey I'd rather take a loss I know about than risk taking a bigger loss.
I made recently what some may think was an irrational decision. He didn't want to live with me. I wasn't going to push the issue because it would of caused a big argument. Then came the decision making moment. Most loving partners would offer kind words as a very minimal when you are remembering your daughter's passing anniversary. He told me it wasn't normal to remember her passing day anniversary. Many of my friends and family think his attitude was both cold and heartless. My dr even said that it is important to remember her no matter how many years go by. That was the reason I decided to say goodbye. He never cared or loved me 😔
Good luck, are you American? Is this the way a lot of Americans behave in relationships?
Mark Ant no but he lacks serious empathy and is a narcarcist
Lol being an econ student the first example didn't fool me haha
That still proves the narrator's point. Because the relative outcomes in both situations are the same, it's more rational to make the same choice in both situations.
How about if I got the exact opposite in the first experiment? *=/*
Me too
+abdullah alshudukhi yeah me to XD.
+abdullah alshudukhi It probably means you lot are people who focus on the gains rather than the losses (unlike most people).
Detective Shaft Maybe
*falls off Skateboard* Note to self: Skateboards are bad.
The Book 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahnemann says the same thing. Awesome read.
*Did you thought you make your decisions*? I mean decisions are manifestations of your mind right! *What if i tell you that people think they are their mind, but in reality they are not. First of all you did not choose your mind it is molded by your environment ( parents, friends enzz) and you did not choose that either*. Furthermore your mind is made up out of your genetics, ( you did not choose them) So you are actually responding to a mind that is made by your environment and you never had any free will in that. The question that remains is then who and what are you??? Find out who you really are and how life really works. Google *TruthContest read the Present*, it explains the big picture of life in every facet, it will set you free.
broo
First time I read something from TheTruthContest spamming assholes and it's actually true.
I agree decision by environment, but I think we can change to do what we want.
Muhammad Iqbal it's really REALLY hard
Ben B its only hard if your spirit is weak, which you can strengthen anyway
3:50 Ratchet and Clank 2 gambling machine sound!! I love that game!
I thought I was the only one who noticed
I thought I was the only one who noticed
Neil Angelo Pereyra You were indeed not :)
@@ainoakeisari It's Racthet and Clank 3
@@ainoakeisari Maybe it's in 2 as well I haven't played it so you get the benefit of the doubt
I appear to be an all-around rational person.
I like this. This was fun to see. What a treat. Subscribed.
Conservatives, take note.
Liberals, take note
Everyone take note
+Rashad Everyone, take note
+Rashad Note, take conservatives.
Conservatives, note take.
This is very powerful, actually. Ridiculously successful companies exploits this weakness.
Informative video! Thanks for giving us dome realizations.
If I remember correctly, there are also studies that suggest that extensive logical analysis does not necessarily lead to better outcomes than quick heuristics based decisions. I fear there is simply a limit on what we are able to comprehend, either through heuristics or logical analyses.
my heuristics are so bad during my mcqs exam!!! while watching this video i only thought how much intuitive wrong decision i make during my exams!!! the right answer always seem the easiest one and not in my intuition
I actually think that the case of guessing Gandhi's age should not be counted as being "irrational", in a sense that students might not have any clue at the first place, so what they're trying to do is getting clue from the question, give an estimation based on the number in the question. You might argue that using that number as a clue is "irrational", but guessing a number at totally random is nothing better than using that clue right?
So really most this video was made up of noticing our behaviors with probability, and then matching these up with scientific terms to make us feel smarter. How fun.
"If you're like most people.... but that doesn't make any sense." lmao funniest line ever
3:54 that's sound is the Roulette machines in Ratchet e Clank 2!
+Xorrin The nostalgia
the feels man:))
I love this
4:10 Also, I think it's been shown that people that are really good at something (eg. a game) actually do BETTER relying on Muscle Memory.
And it's even more amplified with Speedrunning (something I do) for reasons that I think are obvious...
Man, I wish I had this video when I was studying the Loftus and Palmer car crash experiment.
When the guy was thinking about when he was on the skateboard 😂😂😂😂😂😂