The results are in! With over 5,800 responses, the average guess was 8.96, so the correct guess for 2/3 of the average was 6. 169 people (3% of those who submitted answers) guessed the right answer. Well done, 3%ers! Thanks for playing, everyone! Keep an eye out for future game theory games.
@Eric Lee 1/2 of all strokes are linked to dysphagia, which can be deadly if left untreated. A certified speech and language pathologist should run a screening test asap, to check if the patient is in danger or not.
Well, imagine me, not native english speaker, trying understand all that he just said. And even if was in portuguese I think I wouldn't understand totally. At least I tried lol...
This concept was explored in a game from the "Alice in Borderland" series. It was basically the survey, but if you guessed wrong, sulfuric acid would kill you. Fun!
"In real world, people aren't perfectly ration or doesn't expect others to be perfectly rational" Well hot daaamn, story of my life - said almost everyone
The k-level reasoning thing reminds me of a manga named 'Liar Game' that's so satisfying to read. The main characters are geniuses playing psychological game against each other, using this multi-level way of thinking ahead. It's just plain awesome.
Hiền Anh Trần yeah, it is very related. I did a phd in game theory (behavioural science) and illustrated these games to my colleagues (postdoc and professors in game theory) at some point and they were also intrigued by them. At some point we considered doing an experimental variation based on the stationary roulette game based on the manga. 🙂
What's interesting is that if you convince everyone to choose 0, they all win but if one of them chooses something else nobody wins. If you explain that to every participant they could all choose 0 because otherwise they lose. But there will be at least one troll that wants to screw everyones winning chance...
yeah that's literally what i thought . you'd have a couple of trolls choosing 100 , and a couple of rational thinkers understanding that there would be trolls , so they increase their bet them selves . and the cycle repeats , that's why the result was an off 6
@@fraidei2094 Implicitly, they do. They said that if everyone guessed 100, the winner would select 67 (or maybe 66). Either way, that's not actually 2/3, but just close to it. Maybe they meant that the winning guess is 2/3 of the average but rounded to the nearest integer. Even if so, with a large group, if there are fewer than 1% trolls, everyone who picks 0 wins.
@@timthielke3541 The problem is that out of 1000 people in the internet you have round about 200 trolls, 300 morons, and another 300 idiots. With this being a filtered bubble, you can assume that on Ted-Ed these numbers are a lot smaller, but they're still there, and it's more than 1% - even on this channel.
When it comes to human behavior, it depends on how well you know their habits and ways of thinking. Due to how complex humans can think and how smart we can be, there would be multiple results on how we could act and it would depend on how well we know people and humans in general.
1 is also a Nash equilibrium, because they phrased it as the "closest integer to 2/3 the average guess", so if everyone guesses 1, everyone is right, (since the nearest integer to 2/3 is 1) and more than 2/3 of participants would need to guess 0 (with the remaining guessing one), in order to shift the answer to 0. So, while 0 is a Nash equilibrium, so is 1.
well like its simply trying to guess what everyone thinks like at k0 no one thinks so u go with a random number but at k1 u assume there are k0 ppl and try to guess a number now u assume there are k1 ppl its basically u having a certain thought process and answering based upon if everyone had the thought process . And a tip if u are trying to understand things easily try to like explain it to urself out loud as if u are explaining it to someone else if u read this thank you for taking time to read this.
The question is really 3 steps: 1st: people guessed a number between 1-100 2nd: what do you think is the average number guessed for all numbers recorded? 3rd: The real question. Now that you have that average number in mind, what whole number is 2/3 of it? So if you think the average was 60, then your answer is 2/3 of 60 which is 40. I know your comment is old but I hope it helped!
For the “second round” of the 2/3 game, I’m expecting at least half of the people to remember “0 is the best answer” and pick zero, and half to pick random numbers, pick 100 to be trolls, still pick 50 because the math is confusing, or pick 60 because the math is confusing. I pick 33.
@Abhinandan Katoch Back when Club Penguin was still around, the idea was that you had a trio of basic cards. Water, fire, and snow. Fire beats snow, snow beats water, and water beats fire. Cards are numbered 2-12 and if you guess the same element, the one with higher numbers beats the other, and if they are still tied, the round is null. Each card also has a colour, and so you win by either having three cards of the same element in all three different colours or three cards of different elements of three different colours. You can see what your opponent's colours have been, and have a record of your own. Ergo, you are able to guess that the other player will be more likely to choose cards that help them win the game and get to that diversity of cards, but the other player knows this much of you just as much and also knows that you would prefer to play cards that help you win in the same way, and you know that they know, they know that you know that they know, and so on. It was a brilliant game.
Not every one thinks that way. So you thinking that way really just makes you a follower and not a leader. Unless now that you said that everyone is going to start thinking that way...
@@saphired02 well no. You don't even seem to understand the meaning of that sentence. Human can use lying words but not lying actions. Their actions reflect who they are because words and thinking can be deceived.
@@KAIKIN Even actions can be decieving. To truly get the best outcome, you have to utilize all of them equally, and even then, not every situation is the same. To rely only on one sense is setting yourself up for failure.
If we're all smart and we know we're all smart, then the question essentially is... What is the value of x if 2/3 of x is also x? Now I'm so mad I didn't get this post in my recommendation.
@@whynot9579 If everyone playing is a perfect logician and also knows that every other player is, then the reasoning is as follows: There will be some average x, since everyone playing knows this and also knows everyone else does etc. everyone will guess 2x/3 so the average will be 2x/3. But we defined x as the average so we have x = 2x/3. The only solution to this equation is x=0. Of course in practice the average is almost never 0 and there are reasons to guess something other than 0. One is if you're not smart enough to figure out the game, another is if you think other players aren't smart enough to figure out the game, or you might think other players think that other players aren't smart enough, etc. making this difficult to win with any real consistency.
@Eric Lee move the terms to one side then factor then divide. x = 2x/3 -> x - 2x/3 = 0 -> x(1 - 2/3) = 0 -> x=0. You can also kinda "guess" the answer by noticing any other number would change when multiplied by 2/3.
I always thought of people's decision making being based on their 'level of thinking', which was dependent on what level they thought the opponent was on, and thinking one level higher than that. Like how chess masters think ahead of their opponents, and how in death note L and Light used multiple layers of reasoning. Today I learned it actually has a name, and is called k-level of reasoning, wow.
"1" would be a more robust choice. 2/3 of 1 is .66 which rounds to 1. 1 is closer to higher numbers than 0, so it would tolerate more change from people guessing randomly (since their average would be closer than if "0" was picked). Basically 1 is also a correct choice, so I don't see a nash equilibrium here. And if few people were to answer randomly, 1 would yield a more robust average, being more tolerant to changes while still granting a win if everyone acted logically.
If you choose .66, the 2/3 game still applies, so it'll forever get closer to 0, between 0 and 1 you can find an infinite quantity of decimals... It'll always get closer to 0...
Just btw, to this question, the answer at the highest K level also, given that the average is to be a whole numbered value and the numbers whose average is taken are also whole numbers, would not reach 0. It would be 1. This is because at the last assumption, 2/3rds of 1 is 0.67 (but only if we allow non-integer type values, which are not allowed). This results in the 0.67 to be converted back to 1 (as 1 is closer to 0.67 than 0), n then this process is repeated infinite no. of times, each time the no. being 1 n not 0. Therefore, the correct answer (assuming everyone is K12 lvl intelligent), should be 1 n not 0.
I would like to point out something that I think ted forgot. Since the question is to select an INTEGER from 0-100 then once you reach to 1 and then take 2/3 of that, after rounding it you get 1. Thus you will never get to 0 on any k level.
I figured out 0 would be the most logical answer but realized most people wouldn't figure it out. But I thought many of TED-ed viewers would figure it out so my guess was 8. I over estimated you guys.......
Most people stop at 1 or 2 k-levels, so sharing the information will add an additional 1-2 k-levels such that the total becomes 3-4 k-levels. Thus making the mean guess ~(⅔)^4, and the answer to the game ~(⅔)^5 = 13.1
You guessed wrong then. The point is to get the answer that reflects what other people will have chosen, not find the nash equilibrium. No horse needed.
It just occurred to me that all of the people who submitted responses are not understanding the purpose of the video. The videos are describing a scenario where the best possible response, one in which everyone is correct, is to choose zero. When TED asks you to choose what you think the new average would be, if everyone chose zero, that would prove K-Level Reasoning, which would mean everyone is correct because zero is the average and 2/3's of the average at the same time.
I'm part of the people believing not everyone is rational. Theorically, you're right but it's the internet and people are gonna troll and post other numbers. It's almost impossible to tell an entire community to do one thing if they have the opportunity to change the stakes
0 is the most logical if everyone thinks the same, but take me for example, I believe there will be people that won't choose 0, so I'll choose something bigger than 0, if there're many people like me, even knowing the logical answer, we won't answer 0. But what I can guess is that since more people know the most logical answer is 0, the new result will be closer to 0.
I think there is three possibilities: 1. If people don't mind others also winning the game, then the answer would be 0. (I don't think this would happen); 2. If people don't want others to win the game but knowing that the average K-level reasoning is 1-2, they will guess 18, then the answer would be 12. (But that won't be the case because knowing that others also know that they wouldn't choose 33-22); 3. If people don't want others to win the game but know that others know about the k-level infographic, they'll assume that people will choose a lower number, and guees something between 1-4, then the answer would be 1-2. (This looks like real human behavior, thus i think it's the right one)
Holly cow! I thought everyone would say 0! This video just blew my mind. I'll now expect other people to be dimmer then I expected before. This also gives insight about how many steps ahead people usually think, which is nice to know.
It would be a true leap of faith to think every single person in a room would choose the exact same answer while they simultaneously trust everyone else to also choose the same answer based on the same reasoning. I wouldn’t bet my cat on it.
I paused the video at the beginning to make my guess: 13. I figured the other people's answers would be a combination of people guessing zero or one, people guessing two-thirds of the average of people guessing at random, the people who actually are guessing at random, and a few people misunderstanding the question and just guessing two thirds of the total.
I feel like context of where the question is asked is important here. like casual youtube ad before the video would likely have a much higher average than a group that receive large funds for winning the bet and have as long as they wish to think.
that's in fact a missing logic level from yourself . you should guess that there would be trolls increasing the value on purpose and other thinkers guessing that trolls would do that , there for they would also increase their bet , and so one .
I'll throw a guess here, before watching the video: 22. And now I'll watch the rest. Edit 1: Will probably be lower, something like 20. Edit 2: Apparently I am the average reader of Danish newspapers.
K0. Any random no. K1. Two third of 31.3 ~ 20(based on previous answers) K2. Two third of 20 ~ 14 K3 two third of 14 ~ 9 K3 two third of 9 ~ 6 So this means that 3% of the participants are at level k3
I like how Ted-Ed is literally testing our behaviour.. First a guessing game with varied k-levels and only common knowledge provided. Now that Ted-Ed and "WE" know what the result was for that. Now, It's trying to see how we predict the answer in 'now new game with same rules' but with the information of one trial of it given to us. Does our K level rise individually or do we see a shift in thinking perspective... Classic, Ted-Ed being Ted-Ed P.S. I personally think now that most of know the previous result and judging by it (k level 3 btw) I guess this time the average would go a bit lower than before and hence the answer would too.. but who knows I maybe wrong.
A lot of k-level thinking occurs in Poker. K-0 - Look at my holdings and odds of making your hand. K-1 - Putting someone on a range of cards and then make a determination if that range will make them. K-2 I know that my opponent is putting me on a range of cards based on pre-flop action, hence I would take an unorthodox line in the hand to disguise my hand. K-3, a 2nd opponent is in the hand and is raising the first guy , is he raising because he thinks the first person is bluffing? etc. etc.
So according with the graffic on 3:28, most people reach K2 reasoning. My guess then would be 22. Now if assuming that EVERYONE watched and understood this video, then 0 it is.
Mrs Richards: "I paid for a room with a view !" Basil: (pointing to the lovely view) "That is Torquay, Madam." Mrs Richards: "It's not good enough!" Basil: "May I ask what you were expecting to see out of a Torquay hotel bedroom window? Sydney Opera House, perhaps? the Hanging Gardens of Babylon? Herds of wildebeest sweeping majestically past?..." Mrs Richards: "Don't be silly! I expect to be able to see the sea!" Basil: "You can see the sea, it's over there between the land and the sky." Mrs Richards: "I'm not satisfied. But I shall stay. But I expect a reduction." Basil: "Why?! Because Krakatoa's not erupting at the moment?
I think the difference between K level 2 and any K level larger than 2 is a lot smaller than the difference between K level 2 and K level 1. It's like in the classic scenario when two people have to drink a drink one of which is poisoned and they have to figure out whether or not the other person switched the drinks and if so how many times (or "did they switch the drinks... or is that just what they want me to think... or is THAT just what they want me to think..."). To get to K level 1, you just have to ask the first question. To get to any K level larger than 1, you just have to ask the second question.
Watching in real-time, thought 33, and then didn't want to put more effort into thinking. Rationalized with "expecting poeple to not be acting rational is rational". Done.
The results are in! With over 5,800 responses, the average guess was 8.96, so the correct guess for 2/3 of the average was 6. 169 people (3% of those who submitted answers) guessed the right answer. Well done, 3%ers! Thanks for playing, everyone! Keep an eye out for future game theory games.
Yes
@@timezone5259 my guess is 6
I'm gonna post it in the comment and you can't stop me
But when will you do Think like a coder episode 3?
my guess is 100
Basically the scientific explanation of the "what if he knows that I know that he know that I know that he knows..." phenomenon...
And I enjoyed it ")
they know that we know that they know that we know...
@@neogery Monica Geller entered the chat.
I hate that. Cus then he know that I know
but I know that he knows
but he could not know but say he does
but I my know he knows that he does not know
I thought the same thing!!
Y did this help me understand the theory better than the video did?
Anytime Ted-ED poses me a question starting with "Can you...", I already know the answer's no.
Me too 😂
😂😂😂
im her wondering : what do you mean by :"what the two thirds of the new average will be. "
This is called self-fulfilling prediction.
Can you comment?
Can you spell?
Can you think?
Can you talk?
They know we know they know we know
Joey Tribbiani dislikes this comment.
I was actually able to understand this
The messers, become the messees! 😎
Oi bishal katuwal?
Yeah, I know.
I'm operating at k level 0 at all times ✌️✌️
same haha
Says the k-level 10
Brilliant
It's the only way to operate
So "meta" of you.
K1 for me (I hope I got the logic of the video exactly)
k level reasoning in daily life:
Rock paper scissors
Daily? The last time I played that was few years ago. Oh god, I need some friends
Yeah it's a super good example. You need to think ahead but ypu are scared that your opponent will also go ahead so you end up tying all the time lol
Get this guy to 1000 likes
In Rock Paper Scissors if you have a k level of zero you have a 1/3 chance of beating your opponent if they over think
@@FalseRadiation XD yes!
had a stroke watching this
Ok.
What
HAHAHAHA
Also, if this is true, have a SLT check for symptoms of dysphagia ASAP! This could save your life. (A Lil information never hurt anyone!)
@Eric Lee 1/2 of all strokes are linked to dysphagia, which can be deadly if left untreated. A certified speech and language pathologist should run a screening test asap, to check if the patient is in danger or not.
Well, imagine me, not native english speaker, trying understand all that he just said. And even if was in portuguese I think I wouldn't understand totally. At least I tried lol...
What smell is this? Did someone burn something?
Oh, nevermind that's just my brain trying to comprehend this.
_😆😆😆_
I was like whaaatt is he talking about
😂😂😂same
Right, right, because you are so shocked and surprised at how much irrational people really are, I get ya.
Me to my brain:
Its okay brain you can take your time.
This concept was explored in a game from the "Alice in Borderland" series. It was basically the survey, but if you guessed wrong, sulfuric acid would kill you. Fun!
yessss that was a great manga
It is also a live action show on Netflix.
It reminded me of that as well. Chishiya is just too good 💀
"everyone knows this"
Me: 👁️👄👁️
Lol
Lmao
🤣
Even if everyone knows this, it'll be the same since you'd know that they'll do it, and you can predict them easily.
"In real world, people aren't perfectly ration or doesn't expect others to be perfectly rational"
Well hot daaamn, story of my life - said almost everyone
True and so that i avoid people ....☺
*rational
The k-level reasoning thing reminds me of a manga named 'Liar Game' that's so satisfying to read. The main characters are geniuses playing psychological game against each other, using this multi-level way of thinking ahead.
It's just plain awesome.
Hiền Anh Trần yeah, it is very related. I did a phd in game theory (behavioural science) and illustrated these games to my colleagues (postdoc and professors in game theory) at some point and they were also intrigued by them. At some point we considered doing an experimental variation based on the stationary roulette game based on the manga. 🙂
thank you for the sauce!
read classroom of the elite
That's worth re-reading again! In fact there's a drama based on it. Not sure if it's still around though...
What's interesting is that if you convince everyone to choose 0, they all win but if one of them chooses something else nobody wins.
If you explain that to every participant they could all choose 0 because otherwise they lose.
But there will be at least one troll that wants to screw everyones winning chance...
yeah that's literally what i thought . you'd have a couple of trolls choosing 100 , and a couple of rational thinkers understanding that there would be trolls , so they increase their bet them selves . and the cycle repeats , that's why the result was an off 6
No, everyone who chooses 0 wins because they are closer to the answer.
@@inakiloriente the rules didn't say that you win by being the closest to the answer
@@fraidei2094
Implicitly, they do. They said that if everyone guessed 100, the winner would select 67 (or maybe 66). Either way, that's not actually 2/3, but just close to it. Maybe they meant that the winning guess is 2/3 of the average but rounded to the nearest integer. Even if so, with a large group, if there are fewer than 1% trolls, everyone who picks 0 wins.
@@timthielke3541 The problem is that out of 1000 people in the internet you have round about 200 trolls, 300 morons, and another 300 idiots. With this being a filtered bubble, you can assume that on Ted-Ed these numbers are a lot smaller, but they're still there, and it's more than 1% - even on this channel.
When it comes to human behavior, it depends on how well you know their habits and ways of thinking. Due to how complex humans can think and how smart we can be, there would be multiple results on how we could act and it would depend on how well we know people and humans in general.
Yeah it’s much easier to tel when you know the person you are trying to predict with strangers it’s much harder
everyone: it's should be 0
me: what was 2/3 of hundred again?
66666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666666
If i counted correctly that's almoust 2/3 of 10^883
@@mcventi4859 i believe it's time for you to learn a new symbol.
1 is also a Nash equilibrium, because they phrased it as the "closest integer to 2/3 the average guess", so if everyone guesses 1, everyone is right, (since the nearest integer to 2/3 is 1) and more than 2/3 of participants would need to guess 0 (with the remaining guessing one), in order to shift the answer to 0. So, while 0 is a Nash equilibrium, so is 1.
Thanks! Happy to see I am not the only one who is “that guy” ❤
When you say 21 out loud ironically to yourself and then you’re right
I said 20 ;-;
I said 22 haha
K Level infinity
I said 15 so I am correct about real world conditions ;)
I also said 21 we all know each other too well
I'm K negative.. because there is category group of people who didn't understand the question itself...?🤔...includes myself🙄
LOL
I am in that group too, maybe because I didn't see the original wording or maybe there was a video explaining the question that I did not see.
well like its simply trying to guess what everyone thinks like at k0 no one thinks so u go with a random number but at k1 u assume there are k0 ppl and try to guess a number now u assume there are k1 ppl its basically u having a certain thought process and answering based upon if everyone had the thought process . And a tip if u are trying to understand things easily try to like explain it to urself out loud as if u are explaining it to someone else if u read this thank you for taking time to read this.
The question is really 3 steps:
1st: people guessed a number between 1-100
2nd: what do you think is the average number guessed for all numbers recorded?
3rd: The real question. Now that you have that average number in mind, what whole number is 2/3 of it?
So if you think the average was 60, then your answer is 2/3 of 60 which is 40.
I know your comment is old but I hope it helped!
star trillion I’m confuse how people would be able to guess the right answer
"Want more game theory?"
.
.
Uhmm...I think my brain had enough for today.
100 likes with no reply??? I'll help you break out of this awkward situation :)
Btw I AM THE 100TH PERSON TO LIKE THE COMMENT NOT ANYONE ELSE
Lol we were just talking about this in my microeconomics class
Uct
Which topic?
If I were a math teacher, they wouldn’t let me teach Game Theory bc I would end every class with « BuT tHaTs JuSt A tHeOrY »
A gAMe tHeoRY
For the “second round” of the 2/3 game, I’m expecting at least half of the people to remember “0 is the best answer” and pick zero, and half to pick random numbers, pick 100 to be trolls, still pick 50 because the math is confusing, or pick 60 because the math is confusing. I pick 33.
that k level thing sounded familiar, and then I realized that was how I played club penguin card jitsu
same
sameeeeee!!!! i get so stoked whenever i have a 6 game winning streak lol
@Abhinandan Katoch Back when Club Penguin was still around, the idea was that you had a trio of basic cards. Water, fire, and snow. Fire beats snow, snow beats water, and water beats fire. Cards are numbered 2-12 and if you guess the same element, the one with higher numbers beats the other, and if they are still tied, the round is null.
Each card also has a colour, and so you win by either having three cards of the same element in all three different colours or three cards of different elements of three different colours. You can see what your opponent's colours have been, and have a record of your own.
Ergo, you are able to guess that the other player will be more likely to choose cards that help them win the game and get to that diversity of cards, but the other player knows this much of you just as much and also knows that you would prefer to play cards that help you win in the same way, and you know that they know, they know that you know that they know, and so on. It was a brilliant game.
Trust the actions, not what you hear from others, not what you believe...
Not every one thinks that way. So you thinking that way really just makes you a follower and not a leader. Unless now that you said that everyone is going to start thinking that way...
@@saphired02 well no. You don't even seem to understand the meaning of that sentence. Human can use lying words but not lying actions. Their actions reflect who they are because words and thinking can be deceived.
@@KAIKIN Even actions can be decieving. To truly get the best outcome, you have to utilize all of them equally, and even then, not every situation is the same.
To rely only on one sense is setting yourself up for failure.
@@skrrtskrrt2410 well yes actors are some counter examples. What i meant was IRL actions are more trust able than words. Just look at the politicians.
@@KAIKIN Oh you sweet summer child. Ever heard of ulterior motives?
proud to say that after a few months and a rewatch i understand what he’s talking about
Growth is a process - let’s keep at it!
"The weather today is partly suspicious with chances of betrayal."
- Chuck Palanhuik, Diary: a Novel
If we're all smart and we know we're all smart, then the question essentially is...
What is the value of x if 2/3 of x is also x?
Now I'm so mad I didn't get this post in my recommendation.
0
@@isieg575 yes, exactly, as the video said.
@@whynot9579 I'm not smart enough to explain with the inclusion of dummies as they can not be predicted without statistics.
@@whynot9579 If everyone playing is a perfect logician and also knows that every other player is, then the reasoning is as follows: There will be some average x, since everyone playing knows this and also knows everyone else does etc. everyone will guess 2x/3 so the average will be 2x/3. But we defined x as the average so we have x = 2x/3. The only solution to this equation is x=0.
Of course in practice the average is almost never 0 and there are reasons to guess something other than 0. One is if you're not smart enough to figure out the game, another is if you think other players aren't smart enough to figure out the game, or you might think other players think that other players aren't smart enough, etc. making this difficult to win with any real consistency.
@Eric Lee move the terms to one side then factor then divide. x = 2x/3 -> x - 2x/3 = 0 -> x(1 - 2/3) = 0 -> x=0.
You can also kinda "guess" the answer by noticing any other number would change when multiplied by 2/3.
Everyone guessing 21 cuz of the meme and actually getting it: *surprised Pikachu face*
2/3 of 21 ain't 21 so everyone lost🤔
@@vaibhavpandey7202 wha?
Which meme?
What there was a meme?
@@ritulakhani8535 I guess its 11 + 9 = 21 meme
BUT THAT'S JUST A THEORY
a game theory!
a game theory theory!!!
@@jellyfishjelly1941 Thanks for watching
Omg this joke fits so well here
A FILM THEORY!
K-1: What do you think I'm thinking?
K-O: That I'm a "Knock-Off"?
This is alice in the borderland
King of Diamonds game!!! Was so not expecting to find this. Now I understand Chishiya's reasoning :D
I always thought of people's decision making being based on their 'level of thinking', which was dependent on what level they thought the opponent was on, and thinking one level higher than that. Like how chess masters think ahead of their opponents, and how in death note L and Light used multiple layers of reasoning.
Today I learned it actually has a name, and is called k-level of reasoning, wow.
Yeah constantly trying to outsmart in death note
"1" would be a more robust choice.
2/3 of 1 is .66 which rounds to 1.
1 is closer to higher numbers than 0, so it would tolerate more change from people guessing randomly (since their average would be closer than if "0" was picked).
Basically 1 is also a correct choice, so I don't see a nash equilibrium here. And if few people were to answer randomly, 1 would yield a more robust average, being more tolerant to changes while still granting a win if everyone acted logically.
Dude nice math! 👍
If you choose .66, the 2/3 game still applies, so it'll forever get closer to 0, between 0 and 1 you can find an infinite quantity of decimals... It'll always get closer to 0...
@@Eshkirbel1 but I chose 1, not .66
@@Eshkirbel1 you can't choose .66, as you have to guess "the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average of all guesses"
3:57 Rare footage of Manchester United's only goal in 2019
I am a math and economics student and this video is one that made me feel proud about my academic formation.
What you guessed?
Ah, the old game of "they know that we know that they know but they don't know that we know that. Or...do they?
i had a stroke reading that
some people know but some don't and only some know that some know and some don't.............................................
I would still go for 0 even if its unreal ^^
*At the end of this video,I'm still confused*
This was a surprisingly difficult question to answer. I’m very excited to see the results!
Thank you so much for this game theory video! This stuff is super fascinating and it's hard to find well-produced videos on it like this
2:07 *My dog, silently watching me and my sis fighting over the TV's remote*
My cat : 👁️👄👁️
Just btw, to this question, the answer at the highest K level also, given that the average is to be a whole numbered value and the numbers whose average is taken are also whole numbers, would not reach 0. It would be 1. This is because at the last assumption, 2/3rds of 1 is 0.67 (but only if we allow non-integer type values, which are not allowed). This results in the 0.67 to be converted back to 1 (as 1 is closer to 0.67 than 0), n then this process is repeated infinite no. of times, each time the no. being 1 n not 0. Therefore, the correct answer (assuming everyone is K12 lvl intelligent), should be 1 n not 0.
Finally, a TED-Ed challenge I knew how to solve before they explained it! Just learned this a few weeks ago in my evolutionary game theory course.
Very fascinating, looking forward to the results.
this is also called the keynesian beauty contest! one of my favorite concepts in math
video: **has "theory" in the title**
everyone: _bUt tHaT'S JuST a tHEory_
I would like to point out something that I think ted forgot.
Since the question is to select an INTEGER from 0-100 then once you reach to 1 and then take 2/3 of that, after rounding it you get 1. Thus you will never get to 0 on any k level.
it confuses me with that 67
That's exactly what I thought.
I figured out 0 would be the most logical answer but realized most people wouldn't figure it out. But I thought many of TED-ed viewers would figure it out so my guess was 8. I over estimated you guys.......
2:01 That summarizes all my ranked matches in LoL
Hey TED just a reminder, your subscribers are not that smart.......
BTW thanks for sharing Knowledge as usual.... You are the BEST.....
I want to learn to predict my friend's and enemy's next line
Was this your plan all along, *JOJO* !?
*Impossible!?!?*
YOUR NEXT LINE GONNA BEEEE.......
Niceeeeeeeeee
Damn,does it mean I’m at K-level 12,since I thought that 0 is the best option for everyone to choose and picked it myself?!Some geniuses out there
Dima Maksimov i hope this is ironic.
Mathieu P. Corbeil it is,buddy;)
Sounds a bit like Princess Bride’s The Battle of Wits.
Iocane powder
K∞=poison both glasses
I thought of that too :)
I understood that reference
Lolol
Most people stop at 1 or 2 k-levels, so sharing the information will add an additional 1-2 k-levels such that the total becomes 3-4 k-levels. Thus making the mean guess ~(⅔)^4, and the answer to the game ~(⅔)^5 = 13.1
i guessed 0 after like 40 seconds of thinking, someone needs to get me off my high horse
You guessed wrong then. The point is to get the answer that reflects what other people will have chosen, not find the nash equilibrium. No horse needed.
It just occurred to me that all of the people who submitted responses are not understanding the purpose of the video. The videos are describing a scenario where the best possible response, one in which everyone is correct, is to choose zero. When TED asks you to choose what you think the new average would be, if everyone chose zero, that would prove K-Level Reasoning, which would mean everyone is correct because zero is the average and 2/3's of the average at the same time.
“Objective facts are Nash equilibrium points in the contest of competing wills.”
Short, sweet and got me a good understanding and filled with good detail and good material.
0- as I feel like once everyone’s been told the most logical knowing that everyone else was told it they should all go there?
They said don't post your answer here, there's a link in their top comment to a website they want people to give their guesses at :)
I'm part of the people believing not everyone is rational. Theorically, you're right but it's the internet and people are gonna troll and post other numbers. It's almost impossible to tell an entire community to do one thing if they have the opportunity to change the stakes
0 is the most logical if everyone thinks the same, but take me for example, I believe there will be people that won't choose 0, so I'll choose something bigger than 0, if there're many people like me, even knowing the logical answer, we won't answer 0. But what I can guess is that since more people know the most logical answer is 0, the new result will be closer to 0.
I think there is three possibilities:
1. If people don't mind others also winning the game, then the answer would be 0. (I don't think this would happen);
2. If people don't want others to win the game but knowing that the average K-level reasoning is 1-2, they will guess 18, then the answer would be 12. (But that won't be the case because knowing that others also know that they wouldn't choose 33-22);
3. If people don't want others to win the game but know that others know about the k-level infographic, they'll assume that people will choose a lower number, and guees something between 1-4, then the answer would be 1-2. (This looks like real human behavior, thus i think it's the right one)
21, a meme, was the right number... wow. Ted Ed is a legend
The Battle of Wits: "I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you." -Vizzini (The Princess Bride)
A: “I knew you were gonna do that so i did this”
B: “I knew you were gonna do that so i did this”
A: “I knew you were gonna do that too so i did this”
If Rock Paper Scissors counts, I predict everyone’s moves while playing that game
I personally think it counts
Holly cow! I thought everyone would say 0! This video just blew my mind. I'll now expect other people to be dimmer then I expected before. This also gives insight about how many steps ahead people usually think, which is nice to know.
It would be a true leap of faith to think every single person in a room would choose the exact same answer while they simultaneously trust everyone else to also choose the same answer based on the same reasoning.
I wouldn’t bet my cat on it.
So sometimes it’s beneficial to think less. I am gonna be SOOOOO good at that!
*"Shall we play a game?"*
*- Jigsaw*
*I summon Slifer the Sky Dragon!*
-Yami Yugi / Yugi Muto
Bold of you to assume all of us have strategy,or even just knowing basic mathematics
Step 1: Confirm you have green eyes
Step 2: Ask Ted-Ed to leave
This is funny and unfunny at the same time
>Tfw you guessed 22
>Tfw you forgot about the average
I’m in love with this channel and their topics❤️ Thankyou for such informative insights💯 Grateful!
My guess was 20 with the reasoning that many people would not understand the question very well. Play your opponent, not just the game
It would have been interesting to see the graph of the guesses.
I paused the video at the beginning to make my guess: 13.
I figured the other people's answers would be a combination of people guessing zero or one, people guessing two-thirds of the average of people guessing at random, the people who actually are guessing at random, and a few people misunderstanding the question and just guessing two thirds of the total.
Well if everybody is logical then zero if their participants all know, but, we all like being a little different so; i'll say 4
I feel like context of where the question is asked is important here. like casual youtube ad before the video would likely have a much higher average than a group that receive large funds for winning the bet and have as long as they wish to think.
I went straight to zero.. That means I was expecting others to play in the most logical way.. which turn out to be not common.
ay, same (turns out it's more common than you think)
that's in fact a missing logic level from yourself . you should guess that there would be trolls increasing the value on purpose and other thinkers guessing that trolls would do that , there for they would also increase their bet , and so one .
I chose 44 because middle ground somehow
Also i love all your videos and I've subscribed your channel too
My guess was 22, I'm so proud of myself.
I'll throw a guess here, before watching the video: 22. And now I'll watch the rest.
Edit 1: Will probably be lower, something like 20.
Edit 2: Apparently I am the average reader of Danish newspapers.
Is the dialogue from The Sims? 😂
K0. Any random no.
K1. Two third of 31.3 ~ 20(based on previous answers)
K2. Two third of 20 ~ 14
K3 two third of 14 ~ 9
K3 two third of 9 ~ 6
So this means that 3% of the participants are at level k3
I always watch these videos thinking I will understand them... Silly me 🙃
Ted-ed: "No one will guess higher then 67"
Me: *nervously* ofcourse haha
I like how Ted-Ed is literally testing our behaviour..
First a guessing game with varied k-levels and only common knowledge provided. Now that Ted-Ed and "WE" know what the result was for that.
Now, It's trying to see how we predict the answer in 'now new game with same rules' but with the information of one trial of it given to us.
Does our K level rise individually or do we see a shift in thinking perspective...
Classic, Ted-Ed being Ted-Ed
P.S. I personally think now that most of know the previous result and judging by it (k level 3 btw) I guess this time the average would go a bit lower than before and hence the answer would too.. but who knows I maybe wrong.
What a beautiful video to depress people like myself who can’t even comprehend 80% of the video. Nicely done Ted-Ed good job 👏
I thought people would choose 50 so i guessed 33.. I'm at k=1.. I'm so proud
A lot of k-level thinking occurs in Poker. K-0 - Look at my holdings and odds of making your hand. K-1 - Putting someone on a range of cards and then make a determination if that range will make them. K-2 I know that my opponent is putting me on a range of cards based on pre-flop action, hence I would take an unorthodox line in the hand to disguise my hand. K-3, a 2nd opponent is in the hand and is raising the first guy , is he raising because he thinks the first person is bluffing? etc. etc.
but hey that's just a theory
*A G A M E T H E O R Y*
Aaaaand cut!
*A G A M E T H E O R Y T H E O R Y*
So according with the graffic on 3:28, most people reach K2 reasoning. My guess then would be 22. Now if assuming that EVERYONE watched and understood this video, then 0 it is.
But I submitted 5 because surely someone else going through the same reasoning as me would submit a value slightly higher than 0.
Checkmate.
So, when someone says they're on a different level, this is what they mean.
Mrs Richards: "I paid for a room with a view !"
Basil: (pointing to the lovely view) "That is Torquay, Madam."
Mrs Richards: "It's not good enough!"
Basil: "May I ask what you were expecting to see out of a Torquay hotel bedroom window? Sydney Opera House, perhaps? the Hanging Gardens of Babylon? Herds of wildebeest sweeping majestically past?..."
Mrs Richards: "Don't be silly! I expect to be able to see the sea!"
Basil: "You can see the sea, it's over there between the land and the sky."
Mrs Richards: "I'm not satisfied. But I shall stay. But I expect a reduction."
Basil: "Why?! Because Krakatoa's not erupting at the moment?
"so if you guessed 21... Well done"
Me: "I was calculating that for the past 24 hours..! and I don't even get a fricking award... Screw this!"
and the narrator is brilliant as always
"Hello Internet, and welcome to Game Theory!"
I think the difference between K level 2 and any K level larger than 2 is a lot smaller than the difference between K level 2 and K level 1.
It's like in the classic scenario when two people have to drink a drink one of which is poisoned and they have to figure out whether or not the other person switched the drinks and if so how many times (or "did they switch the drinks... or is that just what they want me to think... or is THAT just what they want me to think..."). To get to K level 1, you just have to ask the first question. To get to any K level larger than 1, you just have to ask the second question.
No one:
Joepsh Joestar:
Niceeeeeeeeee
Watching in real-time, thought 33, and then didn't want to put more effort into thinking. Rationalized with "expecting poeple to not be acting rational is rational". Done.
But remember! It´s just a theory, a GAME theory!
Game theory?
That’s the name of a channel that predicts the lore of video games.