Autonomous vehicles will arrive but a substantial proportion of the population will still want to own a car for sometime to come. Not producing a really cheap smaller car is an opportunity missed.
IMO they can still launch several cheap cars that can be sold in the next 10 years at least, with steering wheel and pedals. BUT steer by wire is a must for all future models and refreshes, IMO.
Assuming a more basic version of the Model 3 cost Tesla $25,000 to make, they could earn $7,500 profit per car just from the federal tax credit in the U.S. by pricing the car at $32,500. Since the beginning of 2024, that tax credit is now a point of sale rebate so effectively purchasers would only be financing/paying $25k plus registration & taxes. The U.S. is still the biggest market by far for Tesla and Elon may claim to be against subsidies but those incentives certainly help Tesla (alongside those carbon credits).
So once we have to buy a vehicle with no steering wheel, you're going to have to pay for full self driving. Building them right now with steering wheels and then making full self driving. Affordable, gets everyone hooked! Then......... Build all the vehicles with no steering wheel. There is your money printing machine you mentioned.
model 3 and Y with cloth seats, no heated steering wheel or rear seats, etc, etc. That’ll get the price down and there already knocking them out in Mexico. Edit: Sorry wrote my comment before I watched the whole video. Must stop doing that?! 😮
They’ll reduce the Cybertruck to $25,000, move all production to produce it and sell it worldwide. Will be lovely on the country lanes here in the Mendips 😂😂😂😂
I have to agree with your logic on the cheaper cars. I still think they need to launch a van, probably based on the Semi tractor unit. So with a line up of SX3Y Semi ….. I wonder what the van would be called?! 🤔 Hope they bring out a RHD Cybertruck soon. Australian market for Ute’s is huge and would be available for UK too! ( obviously EU compliant as well) Income from Software as service is limitless in an autonomous future. Especially when licensed to other OEMs (if there are any left by then. Maybe that’s why there no plans for smaller cars ? Leave the others to scramble for the tiny car market while Tesla cleans up in the Cyber-cab market. Bring on the Optimus release! I need some extra help at home………. Half a dozen should just about do it. 😊
Great analysis. Your points are accurate and is just Tesla expanding, while staying true to their original mission. AI and Optimus are spin offs, just because Tesla has all resources, skills and ability inhouse. This opportunity to take the advantage to lead the growing robotics market.
I have to agree with your logic on the cheaper cars. I still think they need to launch a van, probably based on the Semi tractor unit. So with a line up of SX3Y Semi ….. I wonder what the van would be called?! 🤔 Hope they bring out a RHD Cybertruck soon. Australian market for Ute’s is huge and would be available for UK too! ( obviously EU compliant as well)
Noooo Will. The CyberCab is inappropriate for Private Ownership by design and by definition unless you want to be a shepherd . Osborne is the enemy(your “cut back” would kill the existing M3) . From existing production lines I believe we will see a Compact 2 door Model 3 with barely adequate rear seats at $29k after credits . It may have ZERO ADAS - with AP - EAP- FSD and FSD + all available after market . Such a compact would minimise the Osborne effect on the Existing M3 sales but ALSO massively increase the TAM.
I just wish Tesla had been clearer on what their plans are, as I'm waiting to get a Tesla. For my use, a cross between a Model 3 and Y would be great, or a Cybertruck better still! I'm still having to wait to see what the choice will be, and I hope I do not have to wait too long. Tempted to lease a M3 or MY for 3 years, to see what is available at the end of the lease. The Robotaxi is useless for many people, if I used one it would have all sorts of farmyard smells in it, hay, straw, chicken feather etc. when I got out, and I cannot see it getting through any farmyard unscathed!
I found myself nodding along to all of your thoughts. To Elon, how can you make a car cheaper than the Robo Taxi that is fully autonomous. Adding pedals, wheel et al, increased cost. It then makes sense for making cut down Model 3 or Y. BTW I really hope FSD comes to the UK Soon.
I kind of get it. What we want is transport. If that can happen autonomously, then that removes a great deal of the “need” to own a car because we need transport. That we’ve been sold the myth of empty roads and driving enjoyment is just a learned response. We can still have that for those that want it by going to track days and playing with the toys we can rent when we get there. Remember we only drive the vehicle up to now because there was no other option. For most people it’s a necessary drudge on packed roads on a daily basis, no more. I can see the way through to this outcome.
A patent for neural nets for other manufacturers dropped today autonomy is going to be so profitable. I’ve always said a 25.000 model 3/Y is not impossible.
Improvements to manufacturing efficiency will allow Tesla to sell the same cars or cars with reduced functionality at much lower prices! Using Optimus in production will also lower the manufacturing costs!
Yes FSD subscriptions will rocket 🚀 🤑for Tesla.The mega giant computers for ai will surely take over the jobs of the genius engineers in a few years.Maybe some will interface (chips in brains) to be over seers or administers of the ai which will be beyond human genius in a way to control it.😂
Maybe the robocab is the compact, but cant sell in huge volume because two seat. With four seat it would be more sellable. Dont forget more and more 25-30k ev comes with four seat. Tesla miss the huge demand. Other, we dont know anything what is more affordable is meaning for tesla. 😢😢😢
Maybe the robocab is the compact, but cant sell in huge volume because two seat. With four seat it would be more sellable. Dont forget more and more 25-30k ev comes with four seat. Tesla miss the huge demand. Other, we dont know anything what is more affordable is meaning for tesla. 😢😢😢. Question: you going to buy 30k robocab and let other people use?? Im highly doubt.
New variants of Models 3/Y such as hatchback Model 3 or wagon SUV version of Model Y would be big sellers. Low cost entry versions of existing models would be great entry vehicles... BUT... Selling the Cybercab as a personal transportation solution (for the wealthy at first) would be as revolutionary as the EV itself -- completely disrupting the 'manual-drive' legacy auto business. Auto-drive variants of every other Tesla vehicle, including the Semi (!!!), would not be far behind. Talk about DISRUPTION!!!
I think it’s b obvious. Can’t admit it’s coming without destroying sales. Cybercab is aimed at taxicab profits as a two seater, not personal ownership because no one will buy a car without a steering wheel and with only two seats, for another two decades. It would destroy the company to sell it as a premier vehicle. Only option is the cheap Tesla next year on same platform.
If you're short on cash but still feel entitled to splurging money on a new car, there's something wrong with you. Otherwise the "Affordable Car" is already here.You'll find thousands, in fact, in "Auto Trader".
I agree with you on the hardware, but disagree on the software. Tesla has proven for the past decade full self driving will forever be ready 'next year'. Automony will never work with cameras only. Consider rain, snow, dirt, sunrise, sunset these factor all defeat the system. The inherent nature of these AI models is you don't know what goes on inside. It's an endless game of whack-a-mole trying to fix edge case after edge case.
Its all bullshit. Can you not read or not think? Lars clearly stated that new vehicles are coming. Vehicles that share old production methods with brand new ones.
Tesla have already said that there’s not point making a cheap 25k car, when people will just get a robocab when the need to go somewhere. Those that aren’t poor plebs :-) will continue to buy the model 3 & Y and that demographic will increase when they make a cheaper version of the 3 & Y the model 2.5
Autonomous vehicles will arrive but a substantial proportion of the population will still want to own a car for sometime to come. Not producing a really cheap smaller car is an opportunity missed.
You've just talked through my exact understanding of the situation. Thank you for doing the work.
IMO they can still launch several cheap cars that can be sold in the next 10 years at least, with steering wheel and pedals.
BUT steer by wire is a must for all future models and refreshes, IMO.
Assuming a more basic version of the Model 3 cost Tesla $25,000 to make, they could earn $7,500 profit per car just from the federal tax credit in the U.S. by pricing the car at $32,500. Since the beginning of 2024, that tax credit is now a point of sale rebate so effectively purchasers would only be financing/paying $25k plus registration & taxes. The U.S. is still the biggest market by far for Tesla and Elon may claim to be against subsidies but those incentives certainly help Tesla (alongside those carbon credits).
So once we have to buy a vehicle with no steering wheel, you're going to have to pay for full self driving. Building them right now with steering wheels and then making full self driving. Affordable, gets everyone hooked! Then......... Build all the vehicles with no steering wheel. There is your money printing machine you mentioned.
model 3 and Y with cloth seats, no heated steering wheel or rear seats, etc, etc. That’ll get the price down and there already knocking them out in Mexico. Edit: Sorry wrote my comment before I watched the whole video. Must stop doing that?! 😮
They’ll reduce the Cybertruck to $25,000, move all production to produce it and sell it worldwide.
Will be lovely on the country lanes here in the Mendips 😂😂😂😂
I think you are correct. Can't wait!
I have to agree with your logic on the cheaper cars. I still think they need to launch a van, probably based on the Semi tractor unit.
So with a line up of SX3Y Semi ….. I wonder what the van would be called?! 🤔
Hope they bring out a RHD Cybertruck soon. Australian market for Ute’s is huge and would be available for UK too! ( obviously EU compliant as well)
Income from Software as service is limitless in an autonomous future. Especially when licensed to other OEMs (if there are any left by then. Maybe that’s why there no plans for smaller cars ? Leave the others to scramble for the tiny car market while Tesla cleans up in the Cyber-cab market.
Bring on the Optimus release! I need some extra help at home………. Half a dozen should just about do it. 😊
Great analysis. Your points are accurate and is just Tesla expanding, while staying true to their original mission. AI and Optimus are spin offs, just because Tesla has all resources, skills and ability inhouse. This opportunity to take the advantage to lead the growing robotics market.
I have to agree with your logic on the cheaper cars. I still think they need to launch a van, probably based on the Semi tractor unit.
So with a line up of SX3Y Semi ….. I wonder what the van would be called?! 🤔
Hope they bring out a RHD Cybertruck soon. Australian market for Ute’s is huge and would be available for UK too! ( obviously EU compliant as well)
Noooo Will. The CyberCab is inappropriate for Private Ownership by design and by definition unless you want to be a shepherd . Osborne is the enemy(your “cut back” would kill the existing M3) . From existing production lines I believe we will see a Compact 2 door Model 3 with barely adequate rear seats at $29k after credits . It may have ZERO ADAS - with AP - EAP- FSD and FSD + all available after market . Such a compact would minimise the Osborne effect on the Existing M3 sales but ALSO massively increase the TAM.
Nope, it's too expensive to change a platform like that. Tesla will just offer cheaper, stripped versions of 3 and Y next year.
I just wish Tesla had been clearer on what their plans are, as I'm waiting to get a Tesla. For my use, a cross between a Model 3 and Y would be great, or a Cybertruck better still! I'm still having to wait to see what the choice will be, and I hope I do not have to wait too long. Tempted to lease a M3 or MY for 3 years, to see what is available at the end of the lease. The Robotaxi is useless for many people, if I used one it would have all sorts of farmyard smells in it, hay, straw, chicken feather etc. when I got out, and I cannot see it getting through any farmyard unscathed!
I found myself nodding along to all of your thoughts. To Elon, how can you make a car cheaper than the Robo Taxi that is fully autonomous. Adding pedals, wheel et al, increased cost.
It then makes sense for making cut down Model 3 or Y.
BTW I really hope FSD comes to the UK Soon.
I kind of get it. What we want is transport. If that can happen autonomously, then that removes a great deal of the “need” to own a car because we need transport. That we’ve been sold the myth of empty roads and driving enjoyment is just a learned response. We can still have that for those that want it by going to track days and playing with the toys we can rent when we get there. Remember we only drive the vehicle up to now because there was no other option. For most people it’s a necessary drudge on packed roads on a daily basis, no more. I can see the way through to this outcome.
It's a bad solution to a problem that has already been solved long ago, by something called public transport.
Great channel. Is it the robotaxi? Don’t know. Can’t wait to find out.
Oh, the image on the thumbnail is the Robotaxi/Cybercab… I’ve made a few vids about that if you see my channel 👍
At those time scales it has to be a cut down 3/Y
A patent for neural nets for other manufacturers dropped today autonomy is going to be so profitable.
I’ve always said a 25.000 model 3/Y is not impossible.
Improvements to manufacturing efficiency will allow Tesla to sell the same cars or cars with reduced functionality at much lower prices! Using Optimus in production will also lower the manufacturing costs!
I think what you are talking about will be more likely to be adopted by the upcoming generation, not sure as much so by those who like to drive? 😮
“Come they will…… ” 🤣😂🤣
Childish I know but ……. 🤷🏼♂️
Another solid video, Sir. We released a portable air pump for off-road use. Can we invite you to do a review? We have emailed for an inquiry.
Yes FSD subscriptions will rocket 🚀 🤑for Tesla.The mega giant computers for ai will surely take over the jobs of the genius engineers in a few years.Maybe some will interface (chips in brains) to be over seers or administers of the ai which will be beyond human genius in a way to control it.😂
Maybe the robocab is the compact, but cant sell in huge volume because two seat. With four seat it would be more sellable. Dont forget more and more 25-30k ev comes with four seat. Tesla miss the huge demand. Other, we dont know anything what is more affordable is meaning for tesla. 😢😢😢
Maybe the robocab is the compact, but cant sell in huge volume because two seat. With four seat it would be more sellable. Dont forget more and more 25-30k ev comes with four seat. Tesla miss the huge demand. Other, we dont know anything what is more affordable is meaning for tesla. 😢😢😢. Question: you going to buy 30k robocab and let other people use?? Im highly doubt.
Well, there is Musk and the company Tesla maybe two have to different views
New variants of Models 3/Y such as hatchback Model 3 or wagon SUV version of Model Y would be big sellers. Low cost entry versions of existing models would be great entry vehicles... BUT... Selling the Cybercab as a personal transportation solution (for the wealthy at first) would be as revolutionary as the EV itself -- completely disrupting the 'manual-drive' legacy auto business. Auto-drive variants of every other Tesla vehicle, including the Semi (!!!), would not be far behind. Talk about DISRUPTION!!!
First!
👋
I think you're being a bit conservative, actually. 😃
I think it’s b obvious. Can’t admit it’s coming without destroying sales.
Cybercab is aimed at taxicab profits as a two seater, not personal ownership because no one will buy a car without a steering wheel and with only two seats, for another two decades. It would destroy the company to sell it as a premier vehicle. Only option is the cheap Tesla next year on same platform.
If you're short on cash but still feel entitled to splurging money on a new car, there's something wrong with you. Otherwise the "Affordable Car" is already here.You'll find thousands, in fact, in "Auto Trader".
Hi Karen ❤
@@oggyoggy1299 Yea I'm a party pooper. Go get in debt. Have fun.
True and nearly 70% of new car sales are leases now. You’d be made to buy one new.
I agree with you on the hardware, but disagree on the software. Tesla has proven for the past decade full self driving will forever be ready 'next year'. Automony will never work with cameras only. Consider rain, snow, dirt, sunrise, sunset these factor all defeat the system. The inherent nature of these AI models is you don't know what goes on inside. It's an endless game of whack-a-mole trying to fix edge case after edge case.
Its all bullshit. Can you not read or not think? Lars clearly stated that new vehicles are coming. Vehicles that share old production methods with brand new ones.
Lars is wrong. New models aren't coming anytime soon, only cheaper stripped versons of 3 and Y
@ Lars is the one in charge you moron. Do you think you know better than him.
Tesla have already said that there’s not point making a cheap 25k car, when people will just get a robocab when the need to go somewhere. Those that aren’t poor plebs :-) will continue to buy the model 3 & Y and that demographic will increase when they make a cheaper version of the 3 & Y the model 2.5
All I want for Xmas is a two seater with those Lamborghini doors. Where can I place my order
@@tcmazz Not going to happen
@@X5493-c7p 😥
Elon Musk has lost the plot.
Yeah, sure, keep dreaming...