What if The World's Largest Chipmaker Disappeared?
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- Опубліковано 23 тра 2024
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What if TSMC - the world's largest chipmaker - was destroyed to war or natural disaster?
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The UK makes chips all the time. I hear they make it with fish as well.
Beans give those chips more power.
Not forgetting the mushy peas 🤣
Nice one 👍
😅 n
Had me in the first half.
The positive outcome would be that software developers would have to learn the ancient and long forgotten art of performance optimization. Something the current generation of "full stack" coders only know from legends told by the elderlies.
We have enough trouble getting coders to properly deal with memory allocation in c++. You want people to write assembly code for multi-core designs?
@@ronmaximilian6953all those fucking electron apps that spawns a GBs chrome process for each of them should really have never existed.
@@ronmaximilian6953 If they want to keep they job, they need to adept. Less chip = Less consumer, less IT job.
Re-prioritization. Countries would have to take right-to-repair to another level. Maybe forcing phones to allow customers to replace batteries. Slow down the release of features that make older phones obsolete. Extend support for security patches.
The loss of Chinese supply chains of rare earth materials would be even bigger issue. It would take many years to develop technology and ramp up production to satisfy demand.
Kinda what I was thinking. Like, take away the planned obsolescence and you would need far, far fewer chips
I wonder if there’d be more emphasis on optimization and lightweight apps. If people would tend to have older devices as a baseline, it’d probably make sense to make apps that work for them
So you're saying it's a good thing? Maybe China should invade lol
The world would be in panic mode. I believe without chips we would be kinda screwed for good while.
Nobody: Let's make a foundry somewhere else with a high enough capacity that either compete with them or partner with them.
@@unitedhybrid187 Intel suffers 7B USD in operating losses for its foundry business in 2023. Talk about being expensive.
@@unitedhybrid187samsung:
@@Gixgine_the_Fool And? Sounds like a "them" problem.
Yeah the price for computer parts would be skyrocketing very quickly
i think we would see a lot more software optimization.
damn something we could bloody use, I am tired of bloated requirements.
There was a good song about that in the 90s; just search for "Write in C"-song.
I think we would see some more software optimization, but a lot more I think is hopefully optimistic.
I'm a computer programmer, and as much as I would like to optimize some things, I rarely get a chance to. Does it work Yes/No. If Yes, ship it. If No, does it kind of work. If Yes, ship it. Is it fast enough that customers won't complain. Yes, ship it.
Honestly working correctly and optimized are only considered by leadership after the crap has hit the fan, and splattered all over the place..
This didn't change with the 2020 chip shortage, and I don't think it would change with an even worse chip shortage. Yes, stuff would splatter more, but I'm not so sure about a lot more. Plus, I think the tolerance of spraying crap would increase.
as a software engineer im insulted at the current culture of "just upgrade your pc"
@@Hanneth "Is it fast enough that customers won't complain. Yes, ship it."
Wow, you are working for a very good company. So far all companies I and people I know worked for would ship even if its so slow that customers complain.
They would just say "dear customers, buy more ram, thank you".
What if ASML disappeared?
That'd be quite bad. Apparently EUV machines are so finicky that they need a full-time ASML technician team to keep running smoothly.
@@Steamrick There are other chip technologies than EUV, or even DUV. EUV is just the most efficient of them at present. But if push comes to shove and profit margin isn't the issue, alternatives exist. Though it would take time to scale them up.
What if y0 mamma disappeared?
@@codycast The huge mass loss would deviate Earth from it's stable orbit around the Sun, to an unstable one resulting either into colliding with the Sun or being send out of the Solar system in the very cold and very dark space !
@@Mister-Tea well that’s not good….
I feel like if something DID happen to actually take out TSMC, we may have larger issues at a global scale to worry about than just not having chips…
The TSMC main factory in Taiwan, but they are actually building (or have built), factories elsewhere.
@@tournamentmaster2000 they’re spreading operations into a few countries, right? Spread is good.
@@tournamentmaster2000 I believe that something along the lines of 80% to 90% of TSMC's fab capacity is in Taiwan, including basically all of the most modern nodes.
You can't fight a war without chips either
@@deleted-blank You absolutely can do that. We've done that for ages. TSMC also doesn't make all the worlds' chips. It dominates only at the highest end of the chip market. Most military hardware doesn't even use those kinds of chips. Indeed all consumer appliances and vehicles don't either. What does? Phones and PCs. And even those have lower versions. There are also other chip makers besides TSMC, who would just need time to scale. It would hurt, but it's not the end of the world.
Next video : What if the World's Largest Tech channel Disappeared?
MKBHD?
????@@Steamrick
Next video:
What channel are you referring to?
Nothing will happen
It really highlights the importance of diversifying production for every resource, it's a bad idea to centre chip production in Taiwan just as it is a bad idea to centre the production of other things in West Taiwan, for different reasons though.
Yeah, but that‘s basically taiwans life insurance🙈
Chips are not resources. Cobalt is a resource. Guess who already controls most of that? As well as most other rare earthly resources...
@@ArawnOfAnnwn innovation is one hell of a drug.
@@maserati_lukas801 silicon shield theory ayyy
Multipolar world go brr
Pentinum gold cpu would cost $ 1000
This is why the Taiwanese government explicitly told tsmc to ensure that high end chip manufacturing to remain in the country as thats the only bargaining chip it has to ensure its national security aka Uncle Sam coming to the rescue. The manufacturing sites tsmc is building in other countries mainly do mid to low end chips. Also serves as a great curry favouring tool for the taiwanese government.
that's right, silicon shield baby
"Bargaining chip"
I see what you did there.
The US government just sign a deal paying (or promising payment to) tsmc to build leading edge chips in the US mainland, but one obstacle is that tsmc factories in mainland Taiwan have access to significantly cheaper labour (mostly due to much looser labour laws) compared to the US. Apparently now intel's nodes have caught up with tsmc, but they are so much more expensive (not just due to labour) that even intel themselves might save money by using tsmc nodes over their own.
@@mingyi456 Another set back for the US fab is less skilled workers that can make the higher end chips. Which is why I think they decided to focus on low to mid range until the number of experienced workers goes up
I literally toured the TSMC museum in Taiwan a few hours ago. This timing is borderline creepy.
We live in a simulation lol
They're listening
They're responding.
They're in your walls.
They're in your Wi-Fi.
For these or similar reasons, TSMC partnered up with BOSCH, the German government and some other tech companies and will ( maybe already are? ) building a Chip site in Germany.
Building, yes but it's not complete yet and they have said that they will not be making the top of the line chips so it's basically just to produce the mid to low market chips so that tsmc Taiwan have enough space/time/manpower/etc to produce more of the high end chips
They aren't planning on making high end chips in Germany, and around 75% of their manufacturing is going to remain in Taiwan still.
So Germany plays both sides of this conflict(China - Taiwan)! Read the other day how Germany increased it's investment by 2.5x times into Chinese buisnesses
That is years away
@@AlmightyBeing Yes and no. Retooling is expensive, very expensive, so they most likely make chips in round robin. As new node is designed, the oldest fab gets retooled to make new stuff. So at some point the germany fab would also became the high end one.
Happy to see the TechTechPotato shout-out!
Well it would definitely be worse than if the world's largest chipmunk disappeared
Though that certainly also be tragic
That's why we need redundant fabs in countries like India, Mexico as well as EU nations such as Poland.
Kinda random selection there. The US is already doing some investing but if something like that occurred they would be several more large factories.
These aren't those kind of chips. 🍟
Thanks for the explanation!
As though intel hasn't been cranking out the same chips for the last 10 years 😂
The latter chapters of 'Chip War' explores this possibility in a lot of detail, with more reference to the geopolitican stuff that is becoming increasingly important. Would recommend the book to anyone interesting in this video
Hey TSMC Come to Greenland. Plenty of water and geothermal springs.
silicon shield thing and wanting to live thing . Taiwan is not the best place to build factory lmao.
Just like TSMC is effectively the only chip manufacturer, there is a single company responsible for making the lithography machines that make those chips, the loss of which would set us behind as much as the Library of Alexandria burning down
ASML, the dutch have the source for ultraviolet light lithography.
sinking this titanic will leave the world doomed for a while, imagine CPU shortage XD
time to dust out my AMIGA 600 ... WORKBENCH baby
This is what would happen in the immediate future after it. But in the long term future we would have competition, since such an event would open up the market which is currently under monopoly and there is no entry in it.
Hypothetically, wouldn't like a decade of no new chip designs result in better optimization of programs for those chips? After all programmers can still work on their programs, even if their hardware doesn't change or gets upgraded. At least for a while, I don't know when there's be a point where the old hardware is just too old
I like your comment, not only you see a positive in a negative (good karma) - but you see what is imho one of the biggest challenge tech is actually facing: non-redundant code. And this issue has gone way worse since AI popped up, because AI is produces A LOT of redundant code and more and more hardware ressources are being wasted in the process.
There is only so much you can optimize really, and modern compilers do that really well these days.
They can get better, but the problem is, but I doubt it will change _much_ of anything.
Code will either be legacy, fragile, and awful to touch, or it will be good enough performance-wise until it becomes legacy code, closing the loop.
The only nice thing I can see is that some niche operating systems can catch up in better CPU support
@@zahatikoffI don't think the original comment was talking about compiler software, I think it was talking about the programmers themselves learning to write better, more efficient source codes out of necessity.
@@penepleto1210 well that's really not possible because the CPU doesn't really matter in that scenario and nobody will ever touch production code that works except if it needs to be reworked because of performance concerns. So the compliers are the only thing that really get affected and I thought I got this point through.
My bad if I didn't
Why does everyone forget that Samsung has Fabs? Their new nodes are not the greatest, but they are more modern than Global Foundries.
I was surprised it wasn't mentioned.
It was mentioned, just briefly at 4:31
What's worse than a global apocalypse? Using a device powered by an Exynos chip.
Also TSMC either has existing fabs or fabs under construction in North America, Europe and non Taiwan Asia.
Micron and Sk hynix produce their own chips as well.
Good thing that TSMC is building a massive fab in Phoenix.
Early 2025 they'll be pumping out chips too!
Only for mid and low end chips though. The Taiwanese government has made sure of that as a bargain chip to the world in case of a Chinese invasion
"What if The World's Largest Chipmaker Disappeared?" The world would be much happier without those gadgets.
Taiwan getting into chips was a smart move. America will guard them right up until we have our own fabs.
We have some just not on the same level. Micron for example.
i lived well before tsmc (and the internet), i would live after them too.
TSMC going away wouldn't stop innovation. It would mean that a very different priority would be placed on things. Getting the most out of a limited supply of transistors would drive research in that area. Things like making radios and TVs that don't need such advanced ICs would mean new designs that don't just throw procession horsepower at the problem. Cars might suddenly no longer have more and more chips in each generation.
Companies would have to develop software properly again and not waste Hardware resources like they do nowadays.
Again?
@@shanent5793Older software tended to be much more optimized compared to today.
A fascinating example of this is the Roller Coaster tycoon video game. It was basically built entirely in Assembly (with some C++ to interface with DirectX iirc).
By a single guy.
@@shanent5793 Older software tended to be much more optimized compared to today.
A fascinating example of this is the Roller Coaster tycoon video game. It was basically built entirely in x86 Assembly (with some C to interface with DirectX iirc).
By a single guy.
Content for lunch nice
If Ted Kaczynsky was actually smart, he would have mailed a package to TSMC instead of doing letter-writing.
Great Info....
Instead of waiting for TSMC to be up and running again, other countries and companies would surely see this as an opportunity to build up and expand their own chip manufacturing capacities.
It is odd that there is no backup plan where some other Country couldn't build a company that would be similar to TSMC and could take some of the burden of TSMC so that if TSMC was to go under then it would take aver and start producing more than what it normally would be doing.
Why is no one talking about that banger photo of ian Cutress eating that giant chip XD
I kind of imagine it like Fallout, but where people trade chips for goods and services, instead of caps.
Extreeeemely interesting episode !
All there really is to say is this! There is a very good reason why a lot of countries are taking this issue seriously NOW and not waiting for something to happen to TSMC-Taiwan. Sure TSMC might just be expanding to new countries for operations, but one way to think about it is that each one of those other branches could become a primary branch if Taiwan is suddenly unable to provide direction or is providing direction that is no longer desirable.
It's also why as a part of these often government involved initiatives like the US chips act and similar legislation passed in. Frankly, a lot of other countries. There is also funding going to other manufacturers like Intel and global foundries as well as Samsung and Sony and Texas instruments who still manufactures integrated circuit components.
And how did this happen in the first place? "Globalization" and "let's make the factories in countries with fewer to no labor or environmental laws." Anyone can tell you that relying on a single company in a single location is a really bad idea.
It's eye-opening to realize how reliant we've become on these chips and the potential repercussions a shutdown could create globally. Definitely food for thought.
Honestly what this scenario made me think about is how modern software development de-prioritizes optimization, trading it for development time and costs and other things. Saying things like "you better hope your current devices are high end enough to last" is honestly a statement that can only exist in a world where software gets more and more demanding. If we got a real shortage of chips that would last long enough, then I'm sure developers would not be as much incentivized to keep ignoring optimization. And no, it's not some abstract talk, as someone who works in gamedev myself - it is just a plain fact. Optimization is done on the bases of 'does it work well enough on target devices?' and 'avoid "premature optimization" - only optimize if perfromance tests done on target devices show problems'.
And this is driven primarily by the time\cost constraints, not by developers. Many developers would rather spend more time developing software and coming up with solutions that are optimized from the start, but that takes more time, or rather it hurts Time To Market. Because in the long run it's often more efficient to optimize as you go, instead of doing it 'later' because 'later' after the house is built swapping out it's foundation might be quite hard. But it happens all the time in software development.
If every piece of software was made like that we'd still be able to run most modern stuff with no lag on PCs made 10-15 years ago. With, of course, exceptions where advances in raw compute power bring us new possibilities like LLMs or realtime raytracing - these, while also having room for optimization from current state, these just need more raw power from the start.
And then when chip production returns to normal, prices will oddly still be 40% higher than before.
I'm a graduate of computer sciences here in Mexico, and I have heard rumors in the department that the US wants to nearshore chip production to Mexico.
If they stop making computer chips we may have to transition to computer crisps
Linus needs his beard back.
In fact the demand would also crash because a big portion of buying is for upgrades, not replacement. If it isn't an upgrade, people wouldn't be on the market to buy something. Those old nodes wouldn't be in demand unless it's for cars and home appliances. People would keep using their current computers and electronics till new fabs are built outside Taiwan. Just check out the current sales slowdown due to technological stagnation in chipmaking.
🤦♂🤦♂🤦♂
People aren't buying devices with newer chips because they don't have the money to. Everything has gotten more expensive now. I had to eat my neighbour last night because groceries have gotten so expensive now.
Modern hardware is designed to fail immediately after warranty, so people will need to replace as 3-5 year old hardware will start failing on mass.
Currently the issue isn't so bad since most hardware is upgraded before that happens due to software wasting resources and demanding better hardware, but without upgrade paths the large scale failures will became visible.
Life will go on
Note, this is why TSMC is building a fab here in the US. It's pretty risky to have all their eggs in one basket - one deliciously attractive basket for the CCP.
The problem though is not just with TSMC, but if those smaller companies that manufacture the equipment that TSMC need and if they can’t get back up and running as quickly then TSMC will suffer
The world would be a better place as people would go back to face to face communications.
At first I thought this was going to be about the rumors that Intel was going bankrupt
This hits different today...
I recently got a Galaxy S24 Ultra and I have a PC with an i9 14900 and RTX 4070 Super. I'm ready to ride out this potential techo storm.
Hey mate, you're going to have to fiddle around in the BIOS a bit and gimp your 149. Intel thought it wise to push enough voltage into these chips and do an Apple and kill them after so long.
Don't worry though, their benchmark score beat AMD so that's all that counts!!!1
Huh, as soon as i read about Chinese warships performing blockade drills around taiwan today, this video pops up.
It tickles my pickle that one day the Budget Gaming genre will make a resurgence; even if it's only while governments subsidize their local chip fabs to 'normalize' things again.
We can turn to spaghetti. Or rice.😂
Gamers would initiate a new holy war to retake the holy land...
I don't want one of the chips from where they just started back up after an earthquake. I know there's no way to know, but if there was, I would wait for the next few runs.
For this reason I always keep an abacus around
tldr: we are fucked
It's actually disturbing just how dependent the world is now on computer chips. It's like mankind as a whole is dependent on silicon. It reminds me of a lyric from the song "Humility" by Gorillaz:
🎶Cause right now that's the ball where we be chained🎶
The ball in this case being chips instead of a metal ball like how prisoners used to be chained to in the old days or in old cartoons.
So safe to say that tsmc is the biggest hope that Taiwan has to not get wiped out by China
Tech tech potato is my favorite youtube channel 😋😍❤️
Depending how long the company was down, technology would start stagnate and deterrate.
I wonder if anyones considered writing a novel on this premise. Sort of like revolution
When stockpiling esp32 can be a reteired plan 😂
When futureproofing has a one more darker meaning...
I mean... If the entire tech industry is stalled because of a chip shortage, you don't really need to upgrade your tech. So the phone you have now should be just fine.
Possible war is the nice way to sell stock of old graphics cards
Morning tech?
This is why you make backup, kids. In other words, break the ASML & TSMC monopoly
This will lead to the fact that in my country there will be even fewer choices of tech and already high prices would skyrocket.
I liked their approach to the geopolitics that are very sensitive, and didn't just say we're screwed
This is why I keep old pc's around incase I need to pick the parts.
Samsung would have a lot of work
United Microelectronics Corporation is also based in Taiwan. G.skill is based in Taiwan and micron has a plant there. So good luck getting memory.
I think 6 years is way to short before the world would recover. Remember when one ship was stuck in the Suez canal and prices for everything with tech in it was way higher price and this lasted for nearly half a year
Jensen would need to pawn his jacket.
You just cured the CEO of intel’s ED.
Yes let's put 90% of the worlds most needed supply in one building plaza. What could possibly go wrong?
Imagine the stock losses of all tech companies that sell products with chips.
This is why we need to diversify manufacturing plants to different regions in the world. The pandemic should've already taught us that lesson.
Don't us Brits will step up with supplying all of the words Chips.
@3:46 awwww poor amat, getting left out
Honestly, regulators in the US and EU make everything they can to prepare swift and painless transition of Chinese economy to isolationism
Used chips would retain value, and the hunger for faster machines would fall on the software / firmware side.
Is Ian Cutress' doctorate in domesticated root vegetables? If pressure were to reduce innovation, then it would be for the first time ever. We could just buy chips from the Chinese mainland, since they wouldn't destroy Taiwan's production capacity unless they were ready to replace it.
Greed has put us into this position. Produce the chips in the location with the cheapest labor costs. Fucking disgraceful that this has been allowed to happen, so that some greedy CEOs and the rest of their management can live in 50 mil USD mansions on the coast in California or wherever the hell they live. WTF?!
I started talking about this 5 years ago and people just ignored the conversation.....
Wouldn't it be great if consumer product engineers actually had to think again
Well if TSMC shuts down then SK hynix, Samsung, Intel, and other competitors will compete to take it's place. Most likely most companies will have to redesign their chips to work with the replacement company's required shapes to use.
30 seconds into this video 😆😅. 😂🤣. I had to screenshot it and make it my screensaver. Canned lima beans are going to our weapons against the zombies 😆
They should build a back up factory in Mexico, like many other Asian companies (mostly Chinese) are doing to be closer to their biggest client and circumvent US Protectionist import taxes.
Don't worry, even Huawei managed to build good Kirin chips in SMIC factories. So if TSMC shut down countries allies of China can get Chinese phones with Kirin chips
No, I don't remember a gpu shortage. I doubt many people do. That's a very specific problem for very specific people.
Are you simply going to ignore the fact that TSMC is building a chip fab in Arizona?
To have the volume needed they would need to build more foundries
You mean a second mega-fab right? They already have a fab in Arizona and Washington.
With the new mega-fab, TSMC is planning to have 40% of their chip manufacturing coming from the US.
Considering that the two current US fabs make up about 20%, that is a large jump in production capability.
@@Hanneth The fab in Arizona is still being built and is nowhere near ready for production.
@@jefflove3049 I just did some quick searches online originally and it showed that one of the plants was in production of chips and there was an explosion at fab 2 which is a mega-fab.
Doing a little more searching. TSMC announced in April that they were starting limited production 4nm chip runs at fab 1. Fab 1 was originally delayed until a 2025 completion, but they are ahead of the new scheduled and plan to bring the plant fully online by the end of this year. Could TSMC being lying? I don't think so, because an Arizona production worker has already filed an abuse at work case against TSMC. When the facility is fully running it will make 4nm and 3nm chips. As for being fully online by end of year? *shrug*
There is contradiction in the fab 2 story. TSMC has said that construction won't begin work on it until 2026, with it being completed in 2027, or 2028. Other sources talk about an explosion at fab 2 construction site. After some searching it sounds like the "explosion" incident was at fab 1 and wasn't so much of an explosion, but was pressurized waste which burst open sending the waste contractor flying and died in hospital. TSMC claims no part in what happened as the machinery was owned and operated by the contracted company.
A third fab has been approved and a location acquired, but not a lot of information has been released yet. Two of the fabs are 4nm and 3nm, while the other fab will be 2nm. Some sources say that fab 2 is 2nm, others say it is fab 3.
The US government also announced in March that they will be giving TSMC about $5 billion in grants on top of the tax breaks Arizona is giving them.
How much of the information above is true?
I don't know.
TSMC doesn't seem to want the truth to be know. Like they purposely obscure their production line. Most companies would call their 4nm process 7nm. Intel changed their naming scheme to remove the nm, so they could match TSMC's convention, without seeming dishonest. Not that I'm going to claim Intel are the best at honesty either.
@@jefflove3049 at least its happening. Beats starting from zero after the fact.
So you are suggesting if the AI go "destroy all humans" we should attack TSMC ?
The real question is why doesn't TSMC have a back up manufacturing facility in another country?
They really should expand into some place far from where they are like perhaps Ukraine or something.