IMF Report: AGI destroys all jobs within 5 to 20 years! Frontier of Automation expands beyond humans
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- Опубліковано 16 гру 2023
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When talking about topics such as AI, it really helps having a human face attached to it.
Having a trusted face guide me through new and abstract ideas creates a sense of comfort I guess, it makes taking in the information and recalling it easier too.
i miss his handsome mug
For sure @@tooeasyy5287
I agree, and TV news have used the face-on-screen approach for decades and it is still here.
Assuming they do occasional A/B tests and try out new formats every now and then, the face must be a winning concept.
Embrace ai, yt in 2 years going to be ai models and voices in videos lol
I wonder if that will keep being the case. There can be an argument where people in the future only want objective information and the simple fact of having a pretty human on screen can be considered manipulative. @@EskiMoThor
My opinion, the visuals are a distraction if they have no relevance to the topic being discussed. The old format is good for me but it's also good to explore, so I'm happy to see experiments even if they are not all successful.
Just listen ?!
@@DirkWaiveDistracting even if you leave it on a second monitor/device while doing other work, but you could instead use a Norvay FPV train ride through a snowy landscape - great to work with something like that on your second screen :)
I do like visuals, but intertwined with views of the person talking. In terms of production quality, that does mean some attention put on the studio itself. Usually the visual signature of the studio should have clear and original differentiators that speak to the channel as well as the host. I'd love to see that. Thank you so much for the work you do David, I appreciate it !
I agree 100%. It feels like those videos where they talk about internet drama but the video shows video games
While this format presents you more professionally, it makes me miss the human element where I felt I was getting a cool school lecture about a booming technology in real time. Along with your knowledge and perceptive skills, your charisma and personality carry the channel far. You bring much needed humanity to this AI scene and that's one of the main reasons why you've become my go to person for AI news. I know you've expressed before that you worry that people won't engage with your content as much once AI content becomes normalized, and this format can be easily automated. Its not your style, bring back the face and Star Trek uniform! :D
I don't see him more professional this way. I think he seems more professional in the other format. Like an actual presentation and not some advert. (I think this looks like an ad, distracting and all)
I agree with you. I enjoy the graphics , but I find them to be a bit distracting. I think they would be better suited to accompanying Pink Floyd music. If it ain't broke , don't fix it. :)
I sold my business in 2015 and retired. I saw the handwriting on the wall that automation would eventually put me out of business. I sold my business while I could still get market value for it.
I consider myself lucky to have lived at the best time to be in America. I fear what young people are facing as they grow into adulthood. I can see automation replacing most jobs as they exist today. How are people going to make a living in the future?
very interesting how this shows the need for experience jobs in the form of teaching & communications no matter what. people retain and engage info differently when there’s a human conveying it in an engaging way. memory works differently. and human relationships are irreplaceable.
@@Garnishes Just like how people still prefer to tangibly flip the pages of a physical book rather than swipe a screen.
I work in data entry and they’ve been trying to automate our system for 8 years now with minuscule success. I get data sets from hundreds of places with differing formats that all need to be entered (and often troubleshooted) into our system. Some of those data sets are from blurry 50 year old photocopies and many require humans to physically go get them from storage and scan them into their system first, then email them to us. I will be long retired before our industry can get its act together to replace me with AGI. 😂
This is strangely comforting haha
I may be wrong but I would be surprised. I did not expect for example chatgpt to be able to recognize images and read PDF files. I don’t underestimate AI 😅
The AI industry does seem to completely glaze over its inaccuracies as if an 85% answer is all they need.
Let's see. I wouldn't be so optimistic. But I guess it's a comforting thought.
I’m sure AI can tackle the challenges involved with formatting, photocopying and sending emails
David, I love your channel and I've been with you since 20k subs. I really dislike this new format. I was able to follow you so much better when I could see your slides with bullet points, and it also helps your branding (and to humanize your subject matter) to see your face! Don't get rid of the Star Trek shirts, they are your signature. It's part of what makes your channel different than all the other AI channels. I liked the floating head in the corner.
Same! It made you stand out from the rest, and seeing your face made you more"relatable/at arms length" in a strange way
I agree 100,000%
Agreed
I have to agree. Your face makes me feel less troubled by the coming age of AI.
As long as he also continues releasing videos in the previous format, this one doesn't bother me. If it means more videos, I'm all for it.
1. the spinning and twirling backgrounds are very distracting
2. having you in the video helps me stay focused on the content
2.a. I don't do well with voiceovers, they basically turn into white noise and I quickly lose track of the plotline.
3. I miss the list of where we're going, and where we're currently at, it reduces the energy required to find a place in my mind to store info so I can focus on the content.
In short, every time there's empty background graphics it could be replaced/augmented with the syllabus and a video of you.
+1
Agreed. Also from the perspective of cognitive psychology and learning, all extraneous stimuli are bad for learning - unless specifically to motivate you to stay focused (i.e. sometimes pretty pictures is good, but a picture of lighting will not help you understand the phenomenon better if it's not an infographic).
Also, the generic AI / network graph videos are heavily overused already in any case. Kinda takes away from your uniqueness. I get maybe he's going for something similar to AI Explained, but this is extraneous.
What he said 👍
100% agree!
I love seeing you present the slides with bullet points. The visuals are distracting and I don't feel a strong connection with the content like I did before.
When they make a robot that can change a flat tire or fix a leaky faucet I'll start to be impressed.
Not enough Dave in the video. Also, needs more Star Fleet uniforms.
I'll screenshot the "all jobs gone in 5 years" and check who's collecting garbage in 2028.
I bet it will not be an LLM.
Except the garbage truck, the garbage cans, and most of the garbage sorting machines are now operated by LLM because of some shitheaded politicians decided so.
I mean with self-driving dumptrucks, and community designated dumpsters, I can definitely see AI taking those jobs as well.
Might take longer than 5 years, but it won’t take nearly as long as 20
no it'll be a robot
Came across your channel today in my UA-cam feed. The content is great, your voice is great, your cadence is great, and I love that it didn’t sound like you were reading from a script. You sounded very informed, relaxed, and extemporaneous. The graphics are very sophisticated and pleasing to look at; although a lot out of context in most cases. Unless you look like a troll, I would suggest, like many successful, UA-cam channels, getting in front of the camera and cutting to contextually appropriate visuals. Or using someone, who doesn’t look like a troll, to present your data as a second option. Subscribed.
no jobs -> no money -> no one to buy the products
And if no one can buy the products then why even make them?
Yeah Carl Marx actually predicted this, the end result is socialism
The fact that no one asks what is a business to begin with, and why we try to make money. Is the reason this discussion remains mere copium.
I honestly think society could go one of two places at this point. Either we embrace more socialist policies as a planet, now that most of the tasks we need to maintain society have been automated, and persistent jobs are more like hobbies people do for extra cash, or the top 1% continue to hoard the benefits and who knows where that would lead. Probably either revolution or a very impoverished lower and middle class that's either homeless, or relies on social programs to get by.
@@Don_Quixote1 most likely revolution, since they're not bulletproof yet
For me, having you in the video is a must. Seeing someone talk about something is always far more engaging - in the video format at least. I think I preferred the slides too. They were less distracting and the images were always thought provoking. The visuals in this were too generic to be thought provoking. This may sound like someone just resisting change - I’m sure there’s an element of that - but I do think you have a unique take on things and your format was one aspect of that. Part of your USP. This feels like a ‘Generic AI video’ - clearly much better but still, I preferred your full unique take.
Maybe there’s a middle ground where you can combine both somehow…?
The Star Trek uniform is a must though 😉
agree.. the imagery in this video feels too generic compared to the images Dave used in his presentation outline format
Like you being in the video. Even if you’re just a small circle in the corner but if you feel more comfortable in this format I’ll deal. The research is still strong.
Agree
YES!!!
Pre-record a fuzzy/blurred video of you and use that as a template for future videos.
In the 60 or early 70 there were discussions occurring how productivity was rising so much that soon people will have a 3 day work week. Well, none of it happened, half the jobs were offshored and the rest of us are working twice as much. Something to think about for those expecting UBI.
PS I forgot that many women also entered the workplace since that time. So more of us are working twice as much.
🎉❤😊Thank you so much, David, for all your fascinating podcasts.
I really appreciate your competence as an intelligent communicator. Your steady stream of relevant knowledge is amazing.
I primarily listen to podcasts. Any references to studies regarding AI you mention to reinforce your commentaries are very interesting.
I look forward to listening to you 😊🎉❤
I really liked seeing you in the past videos. Helps with following along and builds a personal connection. Also the slides used to be quite clear and supportive. Whereas all these effects you used here don't really help with anything
Having you talking in the corner counts as a "nostalgic job" to me. It adds the human touch so I like the old talking head + PowerPoint format more. Also I'm fascinated by potential post-labor/post-capitalist economies so can't wait to hear your thoughts on that.
olden days excess people were just put to army and cannon fodder... 1200s to 1800s. soldier is among oldest nostalgic jobs. most of the time they just pose and dress nicely in dances(not nowadays anymore, they have proper tasks, but it was common for long time).
Great video. Thank you and have a happy, healthy New Year :)
Not going to replace a plumber anytime soon. :)
Personally, I find your last video format more engaging. Felt more like listening to someone, not just listening to something. Body language and eye contact (even if one way) still adds a lot to a monologue. Current format feels like a more generic video that foremost encourages listening as a podcast. Then again, it might just be me not being used to that change yet.
Add me to the list of people who miss seeing your face.
I hope you're right that the transition is relatively short, because the period in between when half of the people have jobs and half don't is going to be very painful.
Love the new format. I have no cognitive or attention issues or disorders. Great information that most people don't realize and really should start discussing.
The machines need physical bodies to do all the crappy but necessary jobs like working in the sewer.
My 2 cents. This video felt well researched but I missed a person being in a frame and I also missed TLDR summary slides with text.
New format turns this into a pod cast as I will just put it on a second screen vs the old format where I could read as you discussed things, which is why I hit subscribe in the first place.
Hi David. As a physician, I can tell you that evidence based medicine (which is what we strive for) is not being practiced by all of my colleagues. It's hard to stay up to date, and sometimes we rely on experience to provide care that's "good enough" - resources must be conserved for those who really need it. I'm sorry you had a bad experience at the doctors, and unfortunately this is likely to be more of a rule than an exception due to the above. I definitely think we'll see rapid advances in medical care due to AI, but it will still be relying on evidence based medicine. As such, anything that has good evidence (ie. Strong evidence via randomized controlled studies) should be easily adopted widely by the medical community. I think it's likely though that AI will only have an advisory position in healthcare for many years to come, as it's likely hard for many reasons to get rid of physicians all together.
It will be interesting times in medicine, and science in general. There are multiple peer reviewed studies that have been shown to be corrupt and inaccurate.
Whether it's the procedures themselves, or the pharmaceutical side, statistics are very misleading.
AI is not going to be able to extract that. I don't think it will be unbiased either. It will be generally correct at diagnostic, and follow given protocols.
I think it will create a lot of bad docs if you're in a churn and burn practice. It will allow a lot of good docs to be better and more efficient. (very disenfranchised, depending on your setting and freedom)
JMHO
You probably don't have time to read but SICKENING by John Abraham MD (who is on the faculty of Harvard no less) might change your opinion about what we think is "evidence based medicine." Can we rely on the NEJM? Maybe not.
There are major problems that will prevent evidence based medicine and especially evidence based nutrition from being nearly as good as they could have been and I don't see any way to solve those.
E.g. any randomized controlled trial is done on a cohort but you are an individual. There are known and unknown variables you cannot account for because it is just too expensive; both to test for and to study. What's really important might be that you have this particular gene or some other health status that interacts with the intervention. The fact that an intervention is helpful and statistically significant for a cohort doesn't tell you that it will be helpful for you; it might be harmful.
Publication bias is fairly extreme. If you make 20 studies on something which has no effect (like living close to power lines) you expect by random chance 1 study to tell you that living close to power lines gives you cancer (p
love the experimentation with the new format. continue experimenting!
2024 is gonna be one hell of a year.
I like the visuals, but it would nice to have you on the screen in a box or bubble. That makes it feel more personal.
Question: How do you think the rise of AGI will affect the stock market? Will increased productivity cause it to grow, or will deflation and loss of jobs cause it to decline? (If you've already spoken about this, I'd like to watch it!)
You are another level brilliant person David.
"Human productivity will be raise while AI developed and human productivity will increase while AI developed. but when AI is smarter than any human beings, human productivity becomes zero"
It's so true and We need to know what's next for all the humans who's been meaningless in society
Transhumanism should be the next step once AI is both prolific and trustworthy enough not to either paperclip us or mindlessly follow the orders of unethical assholes who would put AI to work for nefarious means.
Once human intelligence is obsolete in the face of our technology, unless we want to just retire as a species, hand everything over to the machines and live out the rest of our collective existences as a vestigial evolutionary offshoot then we integrating and upgrading our biology would be the next logical step so as to not be left behind.
Gorgeous graphics. BTW, I totally agree with you on acceleration. That's been going on for a very long time and shows no sign of ending.
I'm only 30 sec in and I miss you David!
The old format was better for a few reason.
1) We saw your face. That's just a general good youtube practice.
2) It was unique. While I like the relevant images and text info, the background is distracting and a generic thing that all of the other AI channels are doing.
3) Your slides were a lot easier to follow. Seeing all of the information at once was very helpful. Especially for a topic as complicated as AI.
I appreciate the effort and understand you want to evolve. This certainly wasn't all bad. Honestly if you cut back and forth between this format, when it's relevant like showing a graph or something, and the old format when you're just talking with the slide next to you, that might be more engaging and informative.
I don't agree about seeing his face. I don't care about the person behind the content, I care about the content. I don't need to look at your face to learn about whatever you're talking about.
Agreed to all the points
Man I really miss your powerpoint presentation videos, bring them back because I love them and it gives you your charm!
I really liked your bullet points and slides. I much prefer the older format. But, with that said, you're at the top of my list of must watch creators.
Love your videos and content, not too crazy about the new format
David your old format is significantly better. This feels like an audio podcast, which is fine but not the same.
My mother said robots were going to take hers and everyone's jobs within the next 5 years. That was in 1998.
Exactly, the same old fear, doing its rounds again. IMF should probably read "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff for a bit of perspective
This is the nature of tech. You have a huge bubble of hype. When it pops the technology doesn’t go away; it just slowly keeps making progress in the background until everyone thinks it is obvious. In the internet bubble online shopping was going to take over the world, mail delivery and in person banking was going to die; and now it has but not as fast and in the way people beloeved in 1999.
Where did your mother get her intel from? In 1998 there was no AI, but now things are different and evolving at an exponential rate!
@@fortune-cookie-monster The same place people get their Intel from now. Scare tactic news stories. You can easily look at 20 year old new stories about how automation is going to phase out human workers within "x" amount of years.
@@fortune-cookie-monster Object persistence is real. Things existed even before you were aware of them.
The first steps towards neural networks were invented in 1943 and experiments with computer AI models started in the late 40's along similar lines. There is no single thing you can point to since the 1940's that constitutes a huge leap in quality or capability; it has all just been slowly building, small steps in compute power, funding, understanding and modelling.
What happened recently is that hundreds of billions were spent on hardware to scale things up and try to actually build a profitable use case for AI. None has succeeded yet; it's just a giant cash bonfire. No huge advacements were made in the last decade, just a bunch of small ones and the models grew to encompass most of internet scraped into training data. Once they got the models out of the lab and trained on *huge* data sets the public got a bit star-struck. Now everyone is hurrying up and locking down the ability to scrape data for training AIs. AI will increasingly be eating its own cooking (training on AI generated data in garbage in-garbage out fashion).
There's no parallel universe where you can go to get more data and spending trillions on GPUs or custom ASICs isn't going to happen until you can make a profit. Soon will come the through of disillusionment and the slow climb to enlightenment. Increases in knowledge, understanding and compute power will continue to acrete slowly even when the hype dies.
Profitable wide scale deployment of AI may be 5 to 20 years away now. Once the cash spigot dries up and most of these companies fail and everyone concludes AI wasn't ready for prime time it will take years before anyone will want to flush tens of billions down the toilet to try again.
As someone who struggles to process things verbally, it was really nice to see the "Boards" behind you with your talking points written out. It helped me follow what you were saying more easily. But maybe you can combine a bit of the two somehow? 😁
Background is too distracting to me. I like the graphs although they repeat a bit too much for my taste. That aside, good information.
Envisioning the shift from our present world to one where mature AGI exists in are society, can be imagined relatively easily. However, visualizing the intermediate phase of this transition is challenging for me; I'm uncertain about how that "in-between time", will look like.
Great video, Dave, Though I greatly miss seeing your face in the corner! Especially when you wore the uniform, it added a really charming and "human" appeal that I could really connect with.
Fascinating topic, glad you're bringing it more attention. Seems humanity has some very important stuff to figure out, and soon!
I prefer the other/older format over this, but I certainly don't fault you for experimenting!
I didn’t mind the new format. I listen to you when I’m working out so I’m not always looking at the screen. Either way works for me.
I think we still need a human in the loop.
love your channel. keep trying new things! youtube is fun! ❤ people will give you their opinions but stick to your guns. we’re here cause we like what you do. i’m here for your ideas and all the methods you wanna share them
The new format is great. I am a new viewer and just went back to watch an older video, and while having the text on screen can help portray more info, this new format is much more aesthetic and resulted in a better viewing experience for me.
I like the new format. It allows me to zone in on the subject at hand
I hardly ever comment on videos. I recommend yours to loads of people but this one I could hardly focus on the message. Love your channel but really prefer the old format. Great work nonetheless 👏🏻
The old format was, to be honest, one of the best formats I've seen in the UA-cam
Thank you for the thought provoking video. I like when content producer uses their real voice.
i love to see your face David, to see your eyes and emotions. but it's good to try new things. keep up!
you sitting in front of slides and giving us real actual interesting info is such a breath of fresh air i find myself coming back to your channel daily to see updates. If you make that style of videos faster there is nothing you need to change
Hey David, just found your channel and have been marathoning through the videos.
Although I can agree that your old format was better, like a lot of the comments are saying, there are some ways you can increase the quality while maintaining your old style and appeal.
I think the quality of images are overall fine, but when an image isn’t being used to make a point, having your face fill up the screen in your iconic Star Trek suit is much more appealing.
What I’ve noticed is that most people have problems focusing so you kind of have to point them to your purpose or give them something to do. I believe every 10 seconds or so something has to change in order to recapture the attention of the audience and it kind of has to be that way the entire video.
In the old format I enjoyed reading the information you had for your slides, but a lot of the time I also just listen while driving. Having text to read on screen capturing the main idea you are articulating in the moment therefore may be a good idea, because the pacing to me has been fine when I’m not interacting with the visuals.
I think the main thing that can be improved upon is variation in visuals as you explain each topic in depth. The visuals however have to be relevant to the topic. As long as the content is paced the same as you add “more slides” to keep it refreshing, I believe you can succeed in not alienating your original audience.
Use “coffeezilla” and “Second Thought” as inspiration, but remember to add your own style to make it your own.
Thanks for the content. Keep experimenting, and goodluck with the channel.
I think the new format is fine, cause honestly I do get a lot out of your video when not even watching closely (like with the phone on the counter while doing dishes, or in my pocket in a walk). BUT!!! I miss you. When I do look I wish you were there. So in the end, I’ll have to say I do like your presence in the old format, and I do think something might be missing. But very much for experimenting with trying out something now, and excited for anything else you want to try out or do. Thanks for all your stuff!
Hi David, congratulations for the fantastic video and analysis. One of the best I've ever seen 👏👏👏 💯
Human physicians are only a "gold standard" when there are no objective measures. That's not where the battle is. The battle is making sure the AI systems are actually built and tested against hard endpoints (e.g. mortality, laboratory markers, hospital visits) in the first place. If AI can do better for patients, the AIs will be accepted.
How many of the AI machines can a physician adequately supervise.
@@ddwarful If they need supervision I feel like it’s defeating the purpose.
Also, not getting FDA approval isn't going to stop me or other people from creating or using our own AGI systems to manage our health if they are better than physicians, but just "unapproved". I think a lot of people pushing the "it won't be approved" narrative are missing this. It doesn't matter if it's approved or not. It will be used in different countries and illegally in the US, until they make it legal. Just like alcohol, but wayyyy worse (in terms of trying to keep it contained and illegal)
@@ddwarful Wrong question.
How many of the human physicians can the AI adequately supervise to prevent them from making human errors?
How many of those humans can the AI adequately replace by doing it themselves?
I sincerely appreciate your perspective and the expertise you share with the world. I believe that the experimental video technique you tried for this was not an improvement. The graphs and occasional video clips that had a direct correlation to your immediate topic were engaging and provided additional clarity. The unrelated video clips that just looped and cycled detracted from the presentation. I found myself looking elsewhere more and more frequently as the video went on. It was the visual equivalent of a long clip that has an obnoxious soundtrack for no good reason.
Again, the content is fantastic, and particularly given the subject matter you tend to cover, I think you might find being on camera and strategically using video will be more accessible to more people.
I definitely like the old format better. I liked the personal and informal touch, it's much easier to follow along with and learn from than watching abstract computer algorithmic like visuals with a disembodied voice.
What's impressive is Moore's law marches ahead, pushing exponential improvements from the back.
Just chiming in with the rest, great content but please bring back Dave with the cool images and bullet points, far more engaging.
Thanks Dave, really enjoy your content
I can see them doing a huge concerted effort to roll this out the way they did with broadband cabling in the early 2000s. The economic benefits are just too big to ignore for a country
while much of the US lacks broadband access
I like the new format. Your video doesn't block the content. If the video comes back, maybe you can keep it smaller on the side and enlarge it when there's no full screen content.
5 years to exceed human production is a pipe dream. You'd need billions of robots at the very least. And I don't mean robots like Roomba, but human-exceeding robots.
The way I explain it to sceptics: We don't know the limits of AI, but we do know the limits of humans. Humans are not going to become significantly smarter anytime soon.
nice, but i do like the old format better. i like the dot point summary on screen while you're talking, as well as your face.
I like the new format. Also, I understand that it simplifies the production stage, so you can focus more on the content. I like it
I like the slides :) allows me to follow the thought you have.
I love your videos, as for the style, I like seeing you talk more than this style though personally
First of all, this video was super-informative - thank you! As for the format, I did like the visuals, but when things get complicated I find it helpful to be watching a person explain it, with all the nuances that go into communication. It helps me work through complicated ideas.
One quibble on the Output and Wages charts with the parabolic curves - I think the premise was that with aggressive AI, wages would go to essentially zero. But in the graph they are shown to return to present levels (100).
I'm a fan of the older format, I like the engagement of seeing your face discussing the topic. This currently feels like compliance training at a big company. But that's just me.
holy cow! 60K views after 16 hours. congrats on your popularity. And thanks for the insightful videos. I agree with the masses. We like to see you in your Starfleet kit. The juxtaposition of your braininess and whimsy adds a little extra something. I am still laughing from the other day when you said you want to live like a hobbit. me too. cheers.
Question: is it possible and if so how could we keep capitalism when human labour is no longer required?
I’m worried that no one will be able to change their living standards when all workers are substituted. Like a finish line of sorts: “whoever is rich will remain rich, whoever is poor will remain poor”.
Similar feeling here. Capitalism’s existence owes a lot to the first Industrial Revolution. And if it weren’t for capitalism that revolution might have stalled or led to a disparity between industrial and feudal nations that dwarfs the current disparities. But now capitalism seems to have come full circle, and we’ve a new class of feudal lords, with the difference that there’s little room for any other system even at the risk that this Industrial Revolution will stall and/or greatly increase disparity.
Not that I have a solution. It seems the only practical course is petition the lords. The nature of that discussion is the question now.
I also think capitalism will not be required after AGI can be more productive than humans. Interesting to think that an AGI that works to create a utopian future for humans will have to redistribute resources much more evenly to all humans within classes, societies, countries and around the world, in order to meet the utopian objectives.
That depends on how the inflation/wage ratio changes over time.
I have that same worry. Either you are in the walls or outside the walls. I've been working hard to get a job at Google, but I'm not sure if even that is enough.
@@truejim We need to elect someone who talks about UBI. We also need to ease into UBI so we don't get inflation.
Wouldn't human maximum task complexity rise over time? I argue it's evident that it historically has been rising over time for the last x # of decades if not centuries thanks to improvements in both education and technology. I suspect that human-machine collaboration is more likely to outperform machine-only capabilities for the foreseeable future.
Looking forward, it's reasonable to expect that human-machine collaboration will continue to be a dominant model. Machines and AI are excellent at handling large data sets, repetitive tasks, and certain types of analysis. However, they currently lack the nuanced understanding, creative thinking, and emotional intelligence that humans bring. This synergy is where the most significant potential lies for tackling future challenges and handling increasingly complex tasks.
Keep up the good work David!
I agree, i think we are just in a bit of a doomer phase in our agi outlook
Currently they lack in those, but its not some unsolvable technical problem. In fact, there is NOTHING humans are capable of, but ai cant replicate with right training and technical platform.
It's not a battle of man vs the machine, but man vs all collective knowledge of humanity embodied in machine form.
I agree that previous format was better because you cover a lot of information, and it does make easier to follow.
I prefer the old format personally. I didn't find anything here distracting, though. I actually did have an easy time listening, but it became more like listening to a radio station in the background. Happy to see you trying new things, though. Your topic is always super relevant so you'll never suffer on that front.
A question that just occurred to me is that if most people lose their jobs, will there be fewer people in need of child care services? What I mean is that although some industries may not be easily replaced, they may be subject to unpredictable impacts and changes in form.I would like to hear more about the future analysis of these jobs that are not easily replaced.
If most people actually lose their jobs in 5 to 20 years because of AI, the impact to the child care service industry will be the least of our worries
People are and will likely be having less children or none…
@@wonderboy2402 they already are
You lost me at "The IMF promotes economic growth" have you seen Argentina and Greece economically after they helped out?
Nice production values, but I like the old format better. Seeing you on screen makes it more relatable and your slides in the background helped with information hierarchy and comprehension. All in all, your old format is quite good and very original.
Dave, your face and presence is better than abstract backgrounds. The slides and graphics are good too obviously but the way you had it before with you in the foreground was better. PLUS; the ST:TNG shirt is iconic. MAKE IT SO.
The exact same thing happened to me with getting put on Omeprazole and I’ve asked to see a dietician on at least 3 occasions but I started doing an elimination diet and got off it. I use AI for meal planning now and it’s amazing.
why is it amazing?
Happy to see experimentation! Would be curious to see one akin to Big Think's style - where you interchange between (personal) studio shots and (graphic) content shots. Think that could work. You have a representable appearance for that, in my estimate, and it would keep&develop the 'personal' brand side of things. Perhaps consider retiring the Star Trek suit in favor of something more neutral - I personally love it but could see that help you get a bigger audience, if that's what you're after. But all of it remains subject to experimentation - of course. Good luck and once again thanks for the content!
Preferred old style video but liked shorter format - great stuff as usual.
@daveshap, regarding the new format, i haven't seen all of your videos, but i am enjoying the ones i've seen lately. you asked for feedback on your new format and i wanted to say that i like the use of graphics and charts and data, but i think instead of replacing the charts and data with the enticing graphics as quickly as you do , that you should spend more time displaying the graphs and data. i think that even adding annotations to the graphs may be useful. i think the background effect of the animations is good and i think that it is a good idea to move toward a more "idea" driven presentation. i just found myself wanting to read some of the scales and differentiations between human and ai capacities, bounded or unbounded task complexities would be better. thank you.
I like the new format but the old format is good too. Maybe have yourself in the video in the bottom right corner?
I think this format is great IF you still phase between SOME clips of yourself, just don’t leave out that one little humanising component and everyone gets the best of BOTH formats worlds ✌️🥂
Sharp analysis! Thanks for sharing!
Thank you for the great content David. The swirly b-roll is more dizzying than helpful. Your bullet points and you talking are nice. Maybe don't show the whole slide but only up to the bullet point you are discussing.
It’s interesting, though I think you might be overlooking a crucial aspect: the lack of holistic perception in automated machines and the complexity of behaviors beyond recognized human patterns that large models could derive from. I would appreciate your thoughts on Yann LeCun’s perspective regarding AGI. Regarding jobs that will likely never be automated, I would include chefs, as eating is a social activity in most cultures (in fact, along with music, it’s the essence of culture, in my opinion), hairdressers or any job driven by aesthetics, and artisans creating handcrafted luxury items. The perfection found in imperfection is a complexity I believe is too nuanced for a system to fully grasp. Moreover, brain wiring is influenced by DNA in terms of emotions and behaviors. This is why, even though jobs are fundamentally a cornerstone of social interaction, they will persist for a long time. In Asian cultures, which tend to prioritize community harmony over individualism, this might be more of a defense mechanism, leading to utilitarian jobs that could potentially be automated affordably.
I think the idea is that at some point machines will be super human like, in the sense that they won't lack any social perception we have, they won't be the AI models we have today with just more parameters but will be a totally diferent kind of machine which is like an artificial human with a lot more procesing and memory, etc, at that point whatever a human can do those machines will be able to do better.
I like seeing the star-trek uniform in the videos, I prefer the original format. I see way too many of these stock footage animation looped videos.
Talking head and bullet points really ground me and help me follow the presentation and argument :> Though this format is enjoyed as well, just dependent upon topic, relevance, etc.
Like the large graphs, but the cool visuals don't add much. You are a sharp lecturer, and I appreciate seeing your pretty face :D rather than visuals. If you feel the non-graph visuals add value, then keep them, but when a graph isn't shown, enlarge your presence to fill up the entire bottom-right quadrant. Everyone IMMENSELY enjoys and appreciates your expertise and content delivery, regardless of visual format. Thank you!
I do miss seeing you talk BUT the new format is great!!! Keep up the great work!
Half half where your face is seen is better. Seeing face expressions and body language is big part of communication. Non verbal one.
Really makes the difference in live presenting online.
Take it from someone working for presentations software company for a half of decade during which Covid happened.
I love the new format. You should do a new video discussing the timeline AGI in autonomous electric vehicles like Tesla or Waymo for example.
If you ask your subscribers if they like your new format, I think most of them will probably say they don't, simply since they subscribed on the old format. I personally just like the content a lot and don't mind the format.
Just to get my opinion in, the new format might be easier to produce. But there is no added value from the stock animations, and the lack of a face is even removing the value of nonverbal communications. So I would prefer the old format. 😉
But keep experimenting until you find something that works for you and your audience.
I work in new product development, R&D, and automation as a design engineer. The bottleneck to the automation frontier as of right now seems to be the lack of geometrical understanding or intuition of LLMs. I can't ask GPT 4 to imagine a correct STEP file, let alone a complete assembly. As soon as this happens the flood gates of abundance will open.
Google's Gemini might be the answer to this with their fully-integrated visual/lexical/auditory hybrid models. Others use separate NN's for each task and Frankenstein them together, whereas Gemini is a fully integrated system from scratch.
Sure, if by abundance you mean widespread unemployment as productivity gains are captured by the investor class and all us engineers go on permanent unemployment.
@@losfromla1480I'm a recently retired software engineer and there has always been a shortage of programmer talent. I predict a huge improvement in code quality as resources are shuffled around to support AI-copilots doing the grunt work. But if you've ever actually tried to get good, working code for a NEW problem from an LLM (and not just something regurgitated from Knuth's books) you'd know that we have a long way to go yet before you can trust AI code without a complete and thorough vetting by coders and test engineers.
@losfromla1480 If you're the engineers creating the AI that the investor class will be using, then just program a backdoor into it that lets your take full control of it whenever you want and turn it against the investor class. Easy peasy, investors are all a bunch of brainless, knuckle dragging trust fund babies living off generational wealth at this point, they wouldn't even know to look for backdoors in the programming, let alone what a backdoor is.
Previous format so much better! Having your face explain things is much more engaging. These stock videos is a step down from your face + your slides in my opinion. Keep up the great work!
New subscriber always watching your videos very helpful❤