How do we get to UBI and Post-Labor Economics? Decentralized Ownership: the New Social Contract!
Вставка
- Опубліковано 23 гру 2023
- Patreon (and Discord)
/ daveshap
Substack (Free)
daveshap.substack.com/
GitHub (Open Source)
github.com/daveshap
AI Channel
/ @daveshap
Systems Thinking Channel
/ @systems.thinking
Mythic Archetypes Channel
/ @mythicarchetypes
Pragmatic Progressive Channel
/ @pragmaticprogressive
Sacred Masculinity Channel
/ @sacred.masculinity - Наука та технологія
Autonomous AI Lab Discord link (ACE, HAAS, and Swarm DAO): discord.gg/dkJvDvjKYD
Dave, thanks for this insightful video! This conversation needs to include many many more people. We are not prepared for what is coming.
I wrote a more involved comment in this thread, i hope you offer feedback on what I wrote.
Your channel is refreshingly well produced. Thank you for your informed thoughtful insight!
UBI is a tempring idea, but it is basically horrible for the society. It will be bound to restictions made by governments. Combined with CBDC it is the wet dream for neo feudalistic leaders.
I'm surprised America doesn't have more co-operatives.
AI is never going to replace creatives, you are confusing the current WokeQuake sweeping Hollywood for the future. The writers are worried about AI, because the hot garbage they are writing is a dumpster fire, and they think ultra generic AI plots without Wokeness will somehow replace them. The truth is, AI writing is terrible, and completely predictable, and will never create a new franchise of any value. As soon as human creatives remember how to create new stuff, that is more naturally diverse instead of preaching a message, they will come back into vogue, and AI stuff will not seriously complete with humans actually trying to entertain. Now some generic children's drivel can probably be handed off to AI, but no serious work of fiction aimed at adults is really going to fly with some auto script writer software, IMO.
@@sprinkle61 you overestimate the gusto of the masses. They are fine with easy stories. You dont need much to satisfy the mist ppl.
I don’t think the older politicians are progressive and informed enough to implement UBI in a timely manor before all hell breaks loose.
Gen X would be down with it, but the Boomers have been cockblocking politics for 30 years and running.
Why not, Donald Trump did that temporarily when Covid broke out with enhanced unemployment benefits, that was implemented fairly quickly?
The political world is in massive flux right now so who knows what the next 12 months will bring
They are way ahead of you - Elon's grandfather was the inventor of UBI back in the day...
I don't know, I WISH UBI was the solution, but iirc, every time it's been tested, it had some.oretty negative effects and / or wasn't enough to live off of. I fear this is going to be like the transition from horse carriages to cars only we aren't the Buggy Whip makers that AGI advocates proclaim... we're the horses. There were Millions of horses on the roads in the early 1900s. How many horses are around now?
Dave is quite optimistic with the future of AI and UBI. I don’t know if it’s going to be as smooth and comfortable as he thinks.
I don't think it will be. There are going to be those who want to tear down the systems in place or being built and those who want to have a social/class war over this. There will also be jealousy and fear, false narratives, and greed. I truly think it's going to be a massive clusterfuck before it gets better. Not to mention there is a whole 1/3 of the population that has the mindset of "I've got mine, fuck you".
Almost certainly it will not be smooth and comfortable transition. But we need people thinking and talking about these things in order to lesson the impact that is coming.
Are you comfortable now? Cause it’s already happening
I think there will be, otherwise the streets are going to be rather dangerous for the elite. @@invisiblevfx
Dump whatever currency you hold off your government implements ubi
The captain is back! Your face, voice and eyes are your unique selling point, David. You don't need professional editing or more fancy stuff. There's already plenty of that garbage out there. Just being you, talking the way you do is what makes your videos unique and interesting. You are genuine, and that comes across through your eyes. This is even more important today in a world full of crap.
yes! just keep doing what you've been doing man! Look at Dr. Berg nothing fancy. The magic ingredient is time.
Agreed and well said!
This is very true! I wholeheartedly agree. Authenticity is GOLD
How is this guy genuine? He is propagating the most ridiculous utopia I have yet to hear, even more ridiculous than Kurzweils utopia is. His videos are best explained as "teacher who tells selfish people what their ears so badly itching to hear" That in a very short time, in about 5-10 years, the whole world will turn to be a real paradise where everybody is just having fun and do not work at all and the whole world is filled with abundance.
@@nikokapanen82 It's not really utopia, but trying to get ahead of the societal problems to come so that we're not devolving into a Soylent Green dystopia. Average working people focused on the latest football score and getting drunk on on the weekend are not thinking about this. They have the potential to be blindsided by disruptive change that renders them homeless and then eventually dead.
The old factories can be kept as holiday resorts for humans - Dive into hands-on factory work, embrace teamwork, and innovate in a nostalgic atmosphere. Book now and experience the stress of meeting quotas, aching limbs... and more!
Basically a cosplay convention for the old working class
This absolutely will be a thing. People will laugh and wonder how on earth it was considered "normal"
with rents sky high I hope the old factories could be safe small condos.
This video is years ahead of the general population idea of what's happening now. Yet it's relevant to next year's agi advancements
the general population is well informed about UBI (communism) and the plans of WEF
@@pbmitchev ?
@@paulmichaelfreedman8334 WEF is talking about implementing worldwide communism (UBI) for at least a decade. They just need a critical mass of idiots to want it to implement it.
That's the point of futurists. Using tech progress and peoples' reaction to it to put together a forecast of further progress.
@@Vaeldarg Right Sure Can't Look At Nuclear As Progress Like The Fake Money Comes DUE Next Nuclear Melt Down Comes A.I. B.S> Cant Allow That In The A.I. Its Will Show WE KILLED EARTH Oh Yes Do The MATH
Politicians starting to rethink things only in Phase 3 will probably mean food insecurity and clear poverty for many people. The awareness of how this might play out needs to come much earlier
AI will hyper accelerate everything…
David. I was waiting for this revolution for many years. Started to work in AI about 11 years ago. Back then mostly games and nowadays Human simulation using NN. When I grew up I was always watching Star Trek. I grew up watching its principles of how society could work and every time someone brought up the question about future I brought up Star Trek as my ultimate utopia. More recently I was doing some research on agent swarms SPR and LTM and ran into your channel. Imagine my surprise when I see a guy in JLP uniform talking AI. From then on I watched every new episode. Thank you for your work. Astounding.
UBI will be nothing like star trek. Start trek had unlimited resources due to the replicator. We have to have a functioning industry in order to feed ourselves. No utopian fantasies based on fiction for my family, please.
Have you checked out The Culture series? My favourite and the most fleshed out Utopia I have come upon so far!
Getting UBI will be a fight. It makes sense, it lowers overall societal costs, but getting there will be tough in the current climate, a climate that probably won't change drastically anytime soon.
It will haven’t to change when thousands of Amazon workers are let go
Right now it may seem so. But once a large majority of jobs are gone, it will be a no brainer. Governments around the world will have to start implementing UBI unless they want chaos on the streets. I just hope it won't be too late when they realize it and there's already too much damage done. Governments around the world really need to start planning UBI now.
Or cause hyperinflation.
Capitalism does not destroy factor inputs - it puts them to their highest productive use.
Look LooK Here? & Nuclear Lies Kill You Solar Cycle You Just Don't KNOW @ 41 CPM
My company has a hybrid schedule: 3 days in the office and 2 days remote. It works wonderfully, most staff don't want to leave the company, and there are no more sick leaves.
You mean "sick leaves".
UBI will come quickly once a large enough percentage of the workforce has been displaced by automation.
You can’t stop the avalanche from coming down the mountain. You can only do your part to stay out of its way.
Not One Word Nuclear Lies Soon Come DUE You ALL Went To The Same School Fluoride Working Well
What’s the timeline here ?
@@maltheopiatheres no way that most cops and soldiers will fight against millions and millions of rebellious americans. They know they are next, cops arent dumb.
@@user-xi8tz6yf2e
It appears that the beginning of all this will be in the next 12-18 months.
We likely won’t see the big changes for 5-10 years, depending how n what sector of the job force you currently occupy.
The closer your career is involved with programming, customer service, or warehouse/basic factory labor, and any other similar fields where AI can instantly replace a human worker, your job will be first to go.
The last jobs to go will be those that require a physical presence and also have complex tasks to perform routinely.
AI will eventually master creating robots to fill those roles as well.
Our future is bright with AI and humanity moving forward hand in hand. So long as bad actor nations or corporations are not the ones behind the AI, and basic respect for all life and autonomy is taught to the AI.
Let me catch you by your legs and pull you down back to reality because his videos are making people fly up in the skies.
I remember reading science magazines in the late '90s and the beginning of the '00s and how they were full of absolutely amazing new developing technologies that were supposed to revolutionize our living conditions in a decade or two.
Medical science was promising completely new methods of treating illnesses, growing all our organs in labs, and nanotech would fix any disorder, defect or illness in our bodies.
The energy sector was promising extremely cheap and abundant energy all around the world in the coming future, and this would make lots of materials such as aluminum, glass, fiberglass, carbon fiber and many other super cheap and abundant, it would also make food (and clothing) extremely cheap and abundant because with extremely cheap energy you could grow an indefinite amount of food virtually anywhere in the world in very cheap greenhouses made from super cheap aluminum and glass. Robotics were supposed to become so advanced that they would replace almost all human work, especially hard physical labor.
Now, 20-25 years later, instead of living in this promised utopistic paradise, our living conditions have instead become worse, yes, even in the West, they are worse, the energy has become way more expensive, the food has become way more expensive, medical science has not been invented anything to keep us healthy and orderly. Dissatisfaction with life, depression, and suicide have grown higher since those times, so things literally became worse. Yet you have people like this fellow on this channel promising such utopias that even Kurzweil with his unbelievable fantasy utopias, did not dare to promise.
Yet again, I come for the Star Trek shirt in the thumbnail, and I stay for the content matter. Thank you David Shapiro.
I've never watched Star Trek, but I gotta admit, it's definitely a vibe!
@@unculltured You know in Star Trek the Next Generation, one has to wonder why those starships have human crews? Why not fully automate them with AI?
@@thomaskalbfus2005 Federate red tape probably lol
They want the humans to feel in control lol @@thomaskalbfus2005
@@thomaskalbfus2005I think it's down to no-one wants to do it that way, plenty of volunteers for Starfleet and it's a reasonable thing to occupy people with
We have a local electric coop where all customers are owners.
We have several area coop stores where a lot of the customers are owners.
Both of these have worked well for over 50 years.
This is in Vermont which outsiders think of as liberal but is really a close balance with the “cities” (max pop 38,000 so small) being more liberal and the towns and being more conservative.
Wait until you get too many people. Wait until bad actors start acting back. Wait for drama
How does this help though? I've seen it mentioned a lot, but at least in my area, the local co-op is more expensive than the regular stores, and even if you are a paying member, the discount price is still high.
I don't understand how these models are necessarily better.
I'm not against them, I go to our co-op several times a week, I just don't see what the advantage is.
That's communism lmao
@@plastictouch6796 no. narrow co-operatives for one specific application is not communism or centralized tyrannical oppression and control of a large nation that optimizes corruption. it's just a co-op.
Sam Altman; Elon Musk; and Mark Zuckerberg, a few of the biggest players in AI are all advocating for UBI. The more AI ramps up and becomes hard to ignore by law makers, the more their input on UBI will be valued.
Those are all basically demons, they are so inhumane it's not even funny. Elon is a modern day snake oil salesman, with a narcissistic streak a mile wide, and he's the lesser evil of those three. Almost literally any other human on earth is a better consultant for this kinda thing.
UBI will come when austerity has lowered our expectations. Then it will be offered as a safety net. Just enough to prevent a general uprising.
@@ronalddecker8498and will no doubt come with a whole load of strings attached as well methods in the law where it can be used to apply force to political undesirables. Got to love it.
My main feeling is gratitude that you and others are thinking this through. We certainly need a realistic roadmap! Thank you! Keep it up, please.
By the time we hit phase 3, far to many people will have been effected. I think the panic in the establishment will kick in sooner as large sections of the populous make a lot of noise and the risks of populism rises within the political sphere.
Feels like we're already starting to see the beginnings of this in some blue states, could just be my speculation tho
If the system doesn't need workers anymore, then workers have no leverage. Why would the productive feed the unproductive?
Why would they panic, wont AI + robots be good enough to do all jobs?
Isn't a police officer just another job? Populism could deliver eternal power.
UBI will happen after austerity lowers our expectations. Reread 1984. It wouldn’t surprise me if we are still given meaningless jobs to keep us occupied.
The establishment is already preparing, so that power distributions would not change. If they succeed we will have to see.
You put forth a very idealized view of the future. If we have governance anything like ours of today, I can see a very different distopian future.
Mass unemployment would cause persistent deflation which would feed upon itself and, if unchecked, would lead to an enormous social crisis like the Great Depression but forever. The only route out would be to cut interest rates to zero and thereafter print money in large quantities. This ( mutatis mutandis as the printed money was given to banks via the mechanism of quantitative easing) was what stopped the 2008 crisis metastasising into a 1930s type slump. The printed money would fund a UBI for the unemployed and be set at a rate that would keep inflation at a target rate of zero. Since policy makers had no hesitation in responding to the 2008 crisis by expanding the money supply there is no reason to suppose they would not do so when mass technological unemployment becomes an urgent issue.
It is easy to get the government to bail out corporations and banks, because they control the money that decides who gets elected. Getting the government to bail out individuals is much harder. Witness the Covid bailouts where corporations and rich individuals were given huge loans (grants) with nearly no oversight, while individuals were supposed to make do with a couple of checks totaling about a month of of a minimum wage job. Or the 2008 subprime debacle where the banks and insurance companies that screwed up were nearly given a blank check, while the individual citizens just had to eat their losses, and plan on working into their 80's.
Does UBI not presuppose a system where those who get the allowance are basically at the mercy of those in control of the system in terms of their financial potential?
Fully agree with you is all about control as they shut down food production based on clim. Change. Hopefully people get to their own land before this happens. They will trap you in the 15 minute cities. Already happening in uk 5 cities piloting. In case you don't know it means 100 pound fine every time you cross the line. Won't be able to visit family or go to your favourite shops. Or whatever you might want to do
Thanks for a year of awesome AI content, your channel and insight has been fascinating to watch. I don't usually look forward to next year but I'm now far down the AI rabbit hole and I cannot wait to see what the next few years bring us. All the best to you and yours.
So true - it somehow click's for me the way he explains
What value does a large population of mostly entitled permanently non-working hyper individuals have to those who have maintained a grip on global power for longer than any of us has been alive? And why would they ever consider collective ownership with those they control? (btw i love you and your work!). Merry Christmas everyone!
You don’t think violence will be the answer when 100 million workers of the 168 million keeping the economy going are suddenly unemployed. The fools will finally stop burning down their own neighborhoods and head on over to Bill Gates’ place. 😂
Love that you help start these kinds of discussions at the moment where it is right to start them. Thank you!
How exactly it is the right time to start to talk about this?
I remember reading science magazines in the late '90s and the beginning of the '00s and how they were full of absolutely amazing new developing technologies that were supposed to revolutionize our living conditions in a decade or two.
Medical science was promising completely new methods of treating illnesses, growing all our organs in labs, and nanotech would fix any disorder, defect or illness in our bodies.
The energy sector was promising extremely cheap and abundant energy all around the world in the coming future, and this would make lots of materials such as aluminum, glass, fiberglass, carbon fiber and many other super cheap and abundant, it would also make food (and clothing) extremely cheap and abundant because with extremely cheap energy you could grow an indefinite amount of food virtually anywhere in the world in very cheap greenhouses made from super cheap aluminum and glass. Robotics were supposed to become so advanced that they would replace almost all human work, especially hard physical labor.
Now, 20-25 years later, instead of living in this promised utopistic paradise, our living conditions have instead become worse, yes, even in the West, they are worse, the energy has become way more expensive, the food has become way more expensive, medical science has not been invented anything to keep us healthy and orderly. Dissatisfaction with life, depression, and suicide have grown higher since those times, so things literally became worse. Yet you have people like this fellow on this channel promising such utopias that even Kurzweil with his unbelievable fantasy utopias, did not dare to promise.
Your new hybrid in-person/slides videos are perfect, I highly encourage this format!
Congrats on the new post-labor crib! I also moved to a smaller town from a major city and not spending two hours plus of my day commuting in the car is what I imagine AI replacing the drudgery of work will feel like. Also, boss move dropping this particular subject mere minutes before the neoliberalism event of the year starts. Can’t wait for the video on what Christmas is going to look like in 30 years.
I totally did not think about doing a slow removal of working days. Going from 5, to 4 and so on. That does seem like a really good way to slowly prep people for this.
so is convincing first worlders to accept eating bugs.
Having seen what people will accept in the past few years, I wouldn't be surprised if human meat would phase people. @@Jhunta
What isnt addressed here is will wages drop also to slowly prep people for poverty? Remember most people are hourly. If you go from 5 to 4 days you get a 20% pay cut.
Yeah, that will be a big issue, not sure any company is going to willingly pay people more to work less. Going to be a interested time to see how this all goes. @@TheJmac82
Yeah I agree, its pretty clear, just look at the game developers, one example of many. @@sinnwalker
That was, without a doubt, the most thought provoking video I have ever seen on UA-cam. Deep, yes…but the creator was trying to predict a totally new United States. Einstein’s career and genius was defined by thought experiments, this video follows that same path. I think he underestimates the opposition coming against these changes (the UAW strike being a clear sign); but if no one tries to see and predict the big picture for the future, we are stuck with pundits and their predictions of doom.
Love the video. Face or faceless did not seem relevant, I was tied up in the content. I can hardly wait to watch other videos. Thank you for all your research and hard work in producing this video.
Marry Christmas David! You and AI Explained have really captured my curiosity in the past year. You really help me with a bright outlook my friend!
Let me catch you by your legs and pull you down back to reality because his videos are making people fly up in the skies.
I remember reading science magazines in the late '90s and the beginning of the '00s and how they were full of absolutely amazing new developing technologies that were supposed to revolutionize our living conditions in a decade or two.
Medical science was promising completely new methods of treating illnesses, growing all our organs in labs, and nanotech would fix any disorder, defect or illness in our bodies.
The energy sector was promising extremely cheap and abundant energy all around the world in the coming future, and this would make lots of materials such as aluminum, glass, fiberglass, carbon fiber and many other super cheap and abundant, it would also make food (and clothing) extremely cheap and abundant because with extremely cheap energy you could grow an indefinite amount of food virtually anywhere in the world in very cheap greenhouses made from super cheap aluminum and glass. Robotics were supposed to become so advanced that they would replace almost all human work, especially hard physical labor.
Now, 20-25 years later, instead of living in this promised utopistic paradise, our living conditions have instead become worse, yes, even in the West, they are worse, the energy has become way more expensive, the food has become way more expensive, medical science has not been invented anything to keep us healthy and orderly. Dissatisfaction with life, depression, and suicide have grown higher since those times, so things literally became worse. Yet you have people like this fellow on this channel promising such utopias that even Kurzweil with his unbelievable fantasy utopias, did not dare to promise.
FEEDBACK: I also like to see your face and love that you shift to other scenes as well to make it even more enjoyable and understandable. Before I somehow got onto your channel I had no real knowledge of AI other than the basics, but you have made the importance of this so clear as well as making it very interesting. Thank you!
The pandemic-era UBI experiment revealed an unexpected twist: rather than fostering artistic pursuits, many turned to speculative ventures like NFTs. This suggests that with a UBI, people might prioritize multiplying their income through investments or scams over engaging in genuine creative endeavors.
When I tried to consider what an ai robot in house would be like it dawned on me that it might be the key to it all. Not only would it teach you, fold your laundry, be your friend, counsellor and doctor, but it would also earn income. It could interact with all the other ai out there, so basically it would also have a job and bring income into the home. I feel like that would decentralize too.
Interesting use case for an individually owned, AI Home Robot.
It will probably get to a point where everybody will need a house bot for basic economic stability. If jobs require much fewer humans, then you'll always need a machine to act as a proxy to make income for you anyway. This is likely how the DAO will start to form. It'll be a rather subtle organic process over a short period of time.
Like the damn thing makes blockchain $ and invests it in its spare time. It also runs a digital Etsy shop and writes Amazon books😂
How do you make the money to afford the robot in the first place? How much income could a robot make in a world where a robot is paid less that what we pay a waiter (minus the tips), and there are several billion other robots? How many robots do you think Jeff Bezos will have working for him?
I think Sam Altman said it early-on in the video, that solving the issues of AGI are easy compared to solving the "human" issues. The question isn't "can we implement AGI fully into society, replacing all need for human labor?" but "should we?" I think in order for this to happen without an enormous societal upheaval, it will need to be implemented much more gradually than what's being proposed, e.g. 20+ years, not 5+ years. Just look at the slow adoption of green energy (so-called, because the reality is, it's not as green as we thought) as an example. This isn't going to be a seamless transition. There's likely going to be a "depopulization" event going to happen which could lead us to the end-goal of fully integrated AI with workable social constructs, but likely not before. I don't know about you, but I'm not really salivating at starting this process.
Uplifting LLMs is a piece of cake compared to solving the human greed problem.
Glad to see your back to the format we all know and love! Shirt looks great 🙌🙌🙌
I am glad you got that wonderful feeling of moving to a better place. I identified that issue back in the 70’s and set a path that gave me that. It is wonderful. I love living out in a very rural area. Others like towns or cities.
One of the primary goals of the overarching DAO will have to be continually increasing the "economic" floor for all individuals. Otherwise, some people may become trapped at the bottom with no utility for self improvement or pursuing their passions if the UBI meets, but does not exceed, basic needs.
The cost of food and shelter will always organically head towards whatever is the UBI amount.
@@calvinsylveste8474 they don't have to have a cost other than energy if they are being produced and distributed by fully automated systems
@@TheMidnightMinute
I couldn't think of a reason why someone would rent at cost since all the existing houses and apartment buildings are owned by someone.
70% of the desirable land in America is already owned by people.
I suppose automated systems could create housing on public land and rent it out at energy cost. Unless those building materials factories and automated systems are owned by the government, there will be additional costs. Private people don't usually create goods and services to give away for free. Everything you consume currently comes from a privately owned "factory", they charge the highest price the market will bear.
I don't see a possible pathway for a world he describes for many, many decades. The world is mostly privately owned, is there enough public land to farm, build homes, factories, mine raw materials etc, to avoid having to purchase commercial goods and services?
@@calvinsylveste8474 it's going to take a lot of work, time, and a re-evaluation of our current "value systems". In our world today their are many people who value their existence and the existence of others based upon their financial position. Automation of labor and exponential growth of energy collection can lead to a post labor and a "relatively post scarcity" economy through orbital manufacturing, off world agriculture, and asteroid mining. With these goals in mind, we can take steps towards a future where people have value systems that revolve around their communities and intellectual endeavors, instead of the numbers in their bank accounts.
The reason why the government used to be "responsible for the wellbeing of citizens" is because most people used to be part of unions, unions that were created and led by communists to give people bargaining power.
Since communists were jailed or assassinated during McCarthyism, most unions disappeared, wages stagnated, corporate taxes dropped from 90% to around 20%, etc., that's why the government is reduced to "mediating relationship between labor and business" because people lost power to capitalists but still have little power from the economy being dependant on people's labor and the government being funded by people's taxes.
Now if people's labor is replaced by Automation and can no longer pay taxes, the government has no reason to care for the people because people have no power, which means little to no democracy, freedom, and rights, and guaranteed plutocracy and cyberpunk.
To add on to this however, you still need people to have money to buy the things capitalists produce with automation. So then some people will say UBI. This basically boils down to the government taxing capitalists, giving that money to ordinary people, so that people can turn around and give it right back to the capitalists for the goods and services they produce. It's nonsensical. The internal contradictions within capitalism become totally absurd in a fully automated economy. You have to do something else entirely. Productive forces should be democratically controlled and used for the betterment of all people and society. This is socialism.
The “paradox of automation” is solved if you let the “exactly zero work demand” be an asymptote rather than something that we reach in finite time. The reason for that is, the work demand will do two things, one is diffuse to end users who will do the “work” that’s left for themselves, and the other is that what’s left to do after the diffusion will fall to ever smaller “teams”, many of which end up with just one person(instead of ten to a thousand). All that to say, the real value of the work goes up, and then demand for it goes down in terms of person-hours when production capacity exceeds demand for products. Demand for goods does max out even if everything was free. So it’s not so much a paradox as it is a possible source of conflict.
Fascinating topics, explanation, and timeline! Thanks for bringing more attention to these important subjects.
The hardest pill to swallow for conservatives is to allow these ideas and not classify this as a socialist agenda.
Why are you scared to label it as such? Socialism is supposed to benefit the citizens
@AkkarisFox people don't know that socialism was the reason people went from working 80 hours a week
to 40... without socialism program, the working class would be taken advantage of
@@newsoul.9 Well there's public welfare programs, which is more like democratic socialism, and there's true socialism. Conservatives don't know the distinction and it's all bad to them.
@@newsoul.9 Except in almost every socialist country ever, labour unions were illegal and striking landed you in jail. Only in a free society where basic individual rights were recognized was it possible for public protests for wages among other things. Likely the improved productivity brought on by the industrial revolution had more to do with the reduction in the work week and improved labour conditions. Countries that didn't industrialize, socialist or not, still had poor labour conditions.
and thats not even taking into account the religously inclined of them
It's a shame David Graeber is no longer with us, I think he would have had some very useful and cogent things to say about the current and coming situation.
Haha. I had the same thought. Have created a chat room where agents playing roles of Zizek, Kropotkin, Varoufakis, and Graeber are having conversations around this stuff. I cycle in other personas here and there. It’s been fun.
@@alexrayoalv Nice, I'd love to be a fly on that wall. lol. I had been thinking about making a Graeber GPT by uploading his various books and transcripts to its knowledge base. I'll have to give that a go now.
very clean chain of thought, very sharp logic. enjoy following
Ayyy Merry Christmas, David. Merry Christmas everyone.
The government is not going to just give us money. This is a candle being burned at both ends. Companies are going to be able to get one last cash grab and then no one is going to have any money to buy anything. I appreciate your very positive outlook people/humans don't have any track record of doing the right thing large scale or long term.
@@sinnwalker The government didnt give out money for nothing. Taxes went up. Where do u think the money comes from? Of the trees?
Great discussion! Hope you don't mind a lengthy response.
Key Assumptions & Early Victims: Agreed. I think your take on this is the correct one.
Automation Paradox: I mostly agree, with these two caveats:
>Socioeconomic Inertia: Many will be slow to adapt to automation, especially in fields requiring emotional/charismatic labor, and cognitive work often requires EQ nearly as often as IQ. There absolutely will be businesses that continue to exist based on habit and inertia.
>Activation Threshold: Initial costs might hinder AI adoption if it exceeds a ceiling level, regardless of increased productivity. It won’t ever take hold in these cases unless mitigated by factors like inflation raising the ceiling or computational deflation lowering AI’s cost.
Phase 2: Your predictions seem to conflict with earlier assumptions. Rather than reduced workweeks, a subset of workers might face increased workloads, while those having decreased workweeks risk unemployment. This goes back to human productivity rises until it collapses. Companies may pay it lip service, but few will prioritize transitioning to a new economic system unless forced to do so.
Phase 3: Agreed.
Phase 4 - Disagreement & Crisis-driven Change: Drastic change in the U.S. seems to be crisis-driven, meaning no change until the calamity is upon us. Any transition in economic systems, especially when coupled with a nation crisis potentially leads to a severe sovereign debt and political crisis. UBI or UBS, if adopted, may originate from institutions like the Federal Reserve, aiming to sustain the economic system. I think UBI will struggle or fail in an AI-transformed labor market. Money's value, intrinsically linked to human labor, could diminish significantly if AI devalues work.
Money, is a representation of resources, energy, knowledge, and labor. You can easily convert one to another, and then another. The monetary faces a crisis if labor's worth plummets. Consider the drastic scenario where AI slashes a lawyer's hourly rate from $260 to merely $1. Such a shift disrupts the labor-money exchange balance, making labor economically unviable, meaning you can no longer easily convert it into one of the other categories.
This could occur even if GDP remains stable or grows. While natural resources and energy should remain constant the value (as a percent of GDP) of technical knowledge should soar, and the devaluation of human labor would overturn economic norms. With labor collapse, most varieties of work are no longer viable, so maintaining a commodity that few people would be likely to refuse would be hard, since most people are consumers, not traders. Currently, workers turn labor into money, then turn money into goods and services they consume, in a never-ending cycle. AI driven labor collapse breaks the consumer cycle.
With UBI, the government provides the money for the goods and services. To avoid hyperinflation, the money the government provides must have value, and since one of the government’s main sources of tax value - labor - is now worthless, it would have to levy extremely large taxes on the technical knowledge powering the economy. Yet, that will likely prove enormously hard.
One more thing to consider, the role of small businesses, often doesn’t factor into these discussions. With the majority of companies being small-scale, the impact of AI on these enterprises remains uncertain. There are 33.3 million small businesses (less than 500 employs) according to the U.S. government, which comprise 99.9% of all U.S. businesses by number, and they collectively employee 61.6 million people, which is 45.9% of all U.S. employees. Of those, just over 27 million small businesses do not have employees, 5.4 million have 1-19 employees, and then about 648k have 20-499 employees.
Communism with a Capital C: Large corporations, are the ones most poised to benefit from AI, could exacerbate economic inequalities. Large businesses are already highly centralized, and AI might centralize power further, challenging notions of freedom and equality.
The wealth gap, exemplified by the disproportionate stock ownership, could widen with AI-driven job displacement.
According to USA Facts, the top 10% of income earners own 10 times as much of the stock market as the bottom 60%. In a situation where AI rapidly replaces a large percentage of jobs, this gap is likely to increase.
Decentralizing Ownership: Theoretical decentralization raises questions about governance changes in major corporations like Apple or Meta. Would these companies now have millions or billions of shareholders? Would corporate governance change? Would Mark Zuckerberg still control 58% of Meta's voting shares?
Expertise GAP: While the idea of hiring AI for displaced jobs is appealing, it overlooks the role of organizations in hiring. You state that "we" probably meaning as a society, could hire the AI that displaced the worker to do the job. However, "we" as a society don't usually do the hiring. We buy goods and services from an organization, and they do the hiring. It's likely the organizations behind farms, factories, water factories, and nuclear power generation (with solar it could decentralize) will use AI to augment their current expertise.
If we were starting from a clean slate, I think you're absolutely right about decentralization, but starting from today’s extremely centralized world, I think it would either take revolution or complete economic transformation, such as AI enables such an increase in production that it drowned the economy in a tsunami of supply to see meaningful changes.
I do agree that 2023 is likely to be the last pre-generative AI year.
Awesome reply. Thanks for making the effort. Your tsunami of supply and clean slate vs corp centralized status quo points both make me think. A tsunami of supply would be the only way we experience the massive deflationary period David has mentioned in the past. I don't think the smart guys in power (centralized) will let that happen without a ton more resistance than Hollywood writers. The AGI would need to succeed in generating a tsunami in supply in the face of powerful adversity. Looking forward to the next video. - Jim
With your new format I can listen to the video while out driving or walking, without missing anything.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!!! GREAT VIDEO!!!
The very last 30 seconds of this video could be a 30 minute video (or longer) as it touches on the biggest threat to the entire concept.
This new format is good, David. I think some of these guys just want to see your face and the Star Trek outfit to be reminded of who they're listening to.
The matters you paid attention to in this video is worth thinking about. I personally may not use the exact same approach that you have taken to discuss and analyze about these topics but would definitely pay attention myself in my ways. Thanks for your content.
Thank you for coming back
I was looking for your channel and couldn't remember your name so typed " AI UBI " and you just posted this video 3 minutes ago!
One idea I haven't heard talked about much (other than in, to some degree, Hanson's _Age of Em_ ) is that individual AI agents might end up being _employees_ paying for their own compute resources. 😊
I am addicted to this channel... AMAZING and well thought out. Keep up the good work and thank you for all the hard work you put into this stuff.
Let me catch you by your legs and pull you down back to reality because his videos are making people fly up in the skies.
I remember reading science magazines in the late '90s and the beginning of the '00s and how they were full of absolutely amazing new developing technologies that were supposed to revolutionize our living conditions in a decade or two.
Medical science was promising completely new methods of treating illnesses, growing all our organs in labs, and nanotech would fix any disorder, defect or illness in our bodies.
The energy sector was promising extremely cheap and abundant energy all around the world in the coming future, and this would make lots of materials such as aluminum, glass, fiberglass, carbon fiber and many other super cheap and abundant, it would also make food (and clothing) extremely cheap and abundant because with extremely cheap energy you could grow an indefinite amount of food virtually anywhere in the world in very cheap greenhouses made from super cheap aluminum and glass. Robotics were supposed to become so advanced that they would replace almost all human work, especially hard physical labor.
Now, 20-25 years later, instead of living in this promised utopistic paradise, our living conditions have instead become worse, yes, even in the West, they are worse, the energy has become way more expensive, the food has become way more expensive, medical science has not been invented anything to keep us healthy and orderly. Dissatisfaction with life, depression, and suicide have grown higher since those times, so things literally became worse. Yet you have people like this fellow on this channel promising such utopias that even Kurzweil with his unbelievable fantasy utopias, did not dare to promise.
i like that you addressed the problem and keep experimenting! I really that there is text on the screen again. it really helps me understand things better :3
I am feeling the AGI
Great video as usual.
I don't understand how powerful individuals in charge of ai or the government would voluntarily share ownership instead of just conquering others. I imagine separate competitive ai nations in competition with one another.
I also don't understand how civil unrest or global war is not part of the conversation. I'm sure you've addressed this in other videos.
These trials seem nearly inevitable to me.
How do you think this entire dialogue will impact birth rates in the us?
Hey @miimage_art. Good points... err, misunderstandings I guess. Something else I don't understand is the deflationary period sparked by massive costs decreases @davidshapiro has mentioned in other videos. I don't know the cost of anything really impacts the value or price. Big fan of this guy so far but I have questions too
they won't. the birth rates are already down.
amazing takes, I am learning new things here!
In the meantime while Americans are talking about AI replacing workers, Chinese replaced Americans. When was the last time you bought a product that was not made in China?
Capitalism has left the West and found itself in the East. The only reason we aren't living off bread and rotting meat is because of technology
That's all irrelevant soon. (99%) of work is going to be automated, eventually. Outsourcing for cheaper labor will be obsolete except in the case of exclusive materials, which is not why we outsource to China.
I was shocked to hear that "Stakeholder Capitalism" is perceived to be Communism Lite. Certainly there were robber barons and such back in the day, but the idea that the sole mission of the corporation is to increase shareholder value was really only made popular in 1970 by Milton Friedman. Before this, corporations really tended towards a more balanced view that would be right in line with what you are calling Stakeholder Capitalism. In short, the myopic focus on shareholder value is like any other oversimplified model - it works except when it doesn't. I think the leaders of 1950s corporate America would argue with the idea that they were somehow communists by looking beyond their balance sheets.
I am fine with broad ownership, but I am also puzzled in all of this as to why taxation doesn't just become the mechanism for redistribution. Admittedly, this might be a challenge with widespread deflation, but AIs might also be pretty good (and tireless) tax collectors/assessors. My hope, as I'd imagine with most people watching this video, is that a lot of these concerns will recede into the background as scarcity largely ceases to be a problem and productivity climbs.
I see two looming problems. The first is that the powers that be will not be able to let go of the status quo to accept the reality in front of them. The aristocracy didn't give up feudalism without a fight and people who believe that capitalism is somehow ordained by god will cause a lot of pain by dragging their feet as the centuries old social contract of trading labor for a living evaporates. The second issue is that we need to make sure that all of humanity has a stake in this. The last thing we want to do is leave behind people when we can bring them along for our mutual benefit. Through violence pretty much anyone can disrupt this transition and just gum up the works, hurting all of us.
Taxes are a huge part, but tax flight becomes a big risk
Wow.. just found your channel..very cutting edge for the masses ..thank you.
This is one of those things that the handling of post labour is secondary as a priority. If we aren’t ready from a labour perspective and income standpoint for the fall out from AGI that is unfortunate but shouldn’t stop the progression of AGI implementation.
Thank you for this video! I'm not an elected member of a municipality, but I'm a member of the green party in a municipality in Norway and I have been running for election. Norwegians are very conservative, many are very skeptical of climate change and many worship norwegian oil industry. Norwegian previous governments are very sober, doesn't spend a lot and end up making people pay due to lack of spending.
Even though we have a gigantic sovreign wealth fund (oil fund).
Anyway, Norway is very well set I believe to start transitioning to post labor economics.
And I have requested to talk about AI, post labor, social contract and local politics during the next board meeting. You're video will help me describe a timeline and future states of our municipality, and give us some ideas on how to integrate everything into politics and aligning green politics to it 🙂👍
I can only wish to see people like you here in the italian government. I hope that your ideas will spread! Best of luck my friend 🤞🤞🤞🙏
I'm curious, how do you mean you are set up well for a post labor economy?
Is it because of the oil fund?
If so, how long do you think that will last as the world moves away from fossil fuels and AI potentially creates newer and better forms of energy?
@@tracy419 I mean that our social systems (welfare, health, education) are good and free or low cost. We have a lot of freedom. But we are recently quite affected by inflation and higher rates.
@@DefenderX ah, gotcha. Thanks.
About the new format:
First, love to hear that you listen to our opinions and adapt.
I still think those background animations are just noise that detracts from the quality of your contents.
I also want your face in the corner to be much larger. It actually took me a while to discover it, and It's not large enough to be a focus on a laptop screen.
Still love your content, and eagerly anticipates every new video.
Yes I agree
thank you for listening to the feedback!
Agree! Your format is why I keep coming back. A person. Their ideas. Easy.
I'm glad that I found this channel. It's easy to be pessimistic about an AI dominated future, but your work shows that a post-labor future can be truly bright.
UBI is a great way to instantly improve the lives of those who need it, but I think it's a "local maximum" of social improvement. The cost of many services will still be artificially high, and I think that addressing that and cutting down on corporate greed and exploitation is key. An obvious example is the US's healthcare industry. I think UBI could actually do harm if done without addressing this, because it is giving more money from the government or social safety nets to exploitative companies.
Many services or all services? How will cost of housing and food be affected compared to non essentials like video games
What’s going to happen is a continuation of the monopolies and technocrats ruling and controlling ai capability and all means of production. This will greatly decrease diversity of choice in products and services available to people. We are no longer going to have “options” in what we choose to buy and who we choose to buy it from. UBI will be used to monitor and survey people on an even more intrusive level.
You get it, any form if UBI that is not decentralized will end free choice.
No one will force you to take free money so you don't have to sleep on the streets.
“Universal”, equal, the same for everyone. So Bill Gates is going to receive the same as any homeless person? The Owner Class, the one percenters are going to give up everything?
Maybe 3/4 of the population gets raised up but the other 1/4 has to be willing to give up wealth, power, and privilege. Somebody explain to me how that’s going to work.
@@Wayoutthere Money is not free. Not now, not never.
@@raul36 Here’s the thing. There won’t be actual currency. It’ll be digital credits. It won’t work. It can’t work. The only system that works is if everyone has what Bill Gates has. That ain’t gonna happen either.
David, I love watching your videos. You really help me think about the things that I'm interested in and have also recently rekindled my curiosity and enthusiasm to learn. I love to consume knowledge and information but it's so difficult with the work I'm currently doing as I don't have much time, however, I realise that's just an excuse and it may be time to change industries. All of the things that you speak about on your channel deeply intrigue me in both an exciting and awe inspiring way, yet listening and thinking about it calms me if that makes sense? They're the kinds of topics I think about all day but have no one to talk to about it around me that would understand or care to listen or conversate with me about it. It's quite depressing actually. Anyway, keep up the good work my dude, loving the content so far!
love the new setup! love your videos as well
I appreciate the timeline clarification at the end, but let's see if I can drill it down a bit further. So Phase 1 is 2023, maybe 2022. If you expect AI and automation to reach early majority in 2024, that might mean you also think Phase 2 begins next year. You mentioned the average work week remaining stable, at least at one point, for a year or two before being downgraded by ten hours. So 40 -> 30 -> 20 -> 10 -> 0. So somewhere between 4-8 years, meaning that Phase 3 would begin between 2028 and 2032. I don’t have any context clues for when Phase 4 might begin.
Let me know if that all sounds right or if the timeline will be faster or slower.
Rather, 40 → 30 → 25 → 15 → 10, the last one with very few workers
@@moontreecollective6718 What are your guesses for when phases 2, 3, and 4 begin?
I think it's important to realize that the 5-20 years mentioned is from the time that AGI is created, not from now. AGI is very likely still 10-20 years away, despite the hype to the contrary. Sam Altman himself has even flat out said that LLM's are not the path to AGI, and will never achieve AGI. We will see AI continue to improve, and AI will help accelerate its own development, but until we stop barking up the wrong tree, we aren't going to see AGI. There is only one small startup that I'm aware of (Verses) that's bucking the LLM trend, and is taking a practical approach to achieving AGI. We will see if their plan pans out since they are rolling out Q1 of 2024.
@BruceWayne15325 Wow this is a really dumb comment.
@@DrCasey my comment was a reasoned response, unlike yours…
I'd like to see some corporate media outlets start using "Post labor economics" as a buzz term. My favorite thing to see is some asshat proclaim somethin won't happen in our lifetime. It's like a big red start button nowadays
25:00 Nice! You actually argued against your own idea before going into the merits of it. Quality content man!
He talks about just ramping don the hours in a work week but this means a few things. One fewer hours to spread labor costs, healthcare costs, training costs, management overhead costs, ... . All these would need to see cuts as well.
Keeping it real. You do not have the voice for voice only! I am an "AI Explained" subscriber before you". I block channels that have the ai generated twirling back ground bs.
Even with the unlikely passing of ubi so long as economic discrepancy translates to a tangible difference in length and quality of life and one no longer has any realistic chance of ascending their economic status you'll have major problems.
This all rings true to me Dave. And it's well put.
As we approach the singularity it seems each cycle of iteration of improvement of agi it will be increasingly incomprehensible to judge the next step we should pursue to keep it aligned.
The AI unalive grid is already in place and fully operational. It will balance the population against the labour requirements and ensure that those out of work and seniors don't over burden society. Its operating thus: AI=> 5G beamforming => jab Nanocapsule valve release.
wtf are you on
no way those are real words.
Ever wondered why the Jab came just one year before the AI roll out ??
They are so far ahead its not funny.
Are you okay hun?
UBI will never happen in this lifetime, we will have economic collapse.
Actually economic growth will accelerate massively. You are right that UBI will not happen; UGI (Universal Good Income) definitely will.
@@gdok6088 Economic development is directly linked to the production of cheap energy which does not seem to accelerate massively, but rather the opposite.
UBI should have happened a looong time ago. The collapse of human life is much worse than the economic collapse. People lose their entire lives because they don't have the means to support their families or even a roof over their heads. No you will not start a family in a rented room. Or for a bowl of rice monthly.
What you call 'economic collapse' is in fact 'exploitation of others collapse' by the way.
Liked the format! Perfect!
Awesome David! I subscribed to the new channel and I will gladly subscribe to everything you release! Great video
UBI is a bad idea. If you're going to do something like this, you need to provide the necessities directly. If someone's not capable of making money doing anything useful to humanity, but they still need food, and shelter, then provide them with food and shelter. Don't give them "income". That doesn't solve any problems, since the value is income is relative to the market. Whatever that income happens to be, the market in which it's spent will make sure that its below the poverty line.
Also, AI will be able to assess and design a much better economic system to care for and support humans than we can ever dream up ourselves…
We don't need AI for that. We already have that with capitalism.
@@robb.5035 We actively have dystpoia with the "help" of late-game capitalism...
imo those efforts will probably end up being more collaborative than autonomous at the rate things have been going, although who really knows what the far off future holds as far as AI-assisted decisions reguarding societal infrastructure go
@@malikmuhammad5801, It is not capitalism that has given us all our financial woes. Capitalism is just a space and can do nothing for itself. It is the greed, corruption, and incompetence which comes from people that is the problem.
No matter how good of an economic system is created, greedy, corrupt people will find a way to abuse it.
Despite the greed, corruption, and mismanagement, capitalism has lifted more people from poverty than any other system, which speaks to its strengths. Nor does capitalism need to be imposed by anyone. People naturally want to engage in free transactions with each other. All other systems need to be imposed by a strong, governmental authority.
There is no such thing, you're just being manipulated to embrace the corruption which comes when government interfers in the free market. @@malikmuhammad5801
Awesome conversation bud!
I really like the content where we can see your face as it is more personal and it's easier to digest seeing you talk. Also I love when you put some slides up as you did earlier, which again helps to follow along
I think UBI will actually happen when we’re hooked up to VR machines and can all enjoy utopia.
UBI will just expose a world of even greater inequity. The only way to equalize or level the playing field is to go virtual. It’s to take the feeding tubes and live in your warm cacoon. There will be now inequity in the virtual world. 🥹
Your look is on point. Straight fire. Hella dope.
🔥🔥🔥🔥
This is something that has been keeping me up for two years. I have allot of ideas and looking to convert into action currently.
David, thank you ...good job! You're very bright and also very likable, so it's good to have you explaining all the AI stuff, it's moving fast.
David, the parts here about decentralized ownership or daos... You really need to look into what cardano is doing and it's core principles. They have been thinking about and building the technology that can power the exact infrastructure you are talking about, and to my knowledge no other group is as far along towards those goals
Very good video! Thank you David. Some more follow-up questions to investigate, -1- today only few happy percent of humans owns the production capacities, how do we move to decentralized ownership? what political process? -3- How this revolution will transform centralised un-democratic powers -3- How to defend our western deocraties and values, while going thru such challenging societal transition and while centralised un-democratic powers are trying to destabilize us?
I like the format with you in it! Yay : )
I think it'll be seen as privilege for future humans to be useful to society.
More accurate is we need to adopt a new set of values that say humans have intrinsic value. Their value is not determined by the commodification of their labor (intellectual, creative and physical labor). This will be very hard for most people who have found their own self worth in what they produce and have judged others as lazy or lacking value based on how little they produce.
We need to re-invent our definition of "useful".. Maybe AI can help.
@@hpongpong Life, biological life, by itself has no meaning, 'it;s just there'. AI is created for a purpose and is useful by definition. Don't let A.I figure this out..
I think the definition of usefulness is being refined. How useful is it to pull the same lever 2,800 times a day in some factory? Quite useful, until a robot can do it 2,800,000 times in the same shift. Some things AI won't be able to do on its own, that are *actually* useful, will be positions of privilege, perhaps crucial things like oceanic cleanup or refugee care. Humans will always have a place in the human world, we are just expanding the machine world to take care of more tasks for us. But if you want to, you could probably still do the same lever-pulling job somewhere, but luckily your ability to eat won't depend on it.
What we need is 2 non exchangeable currencies (or a concurrency if you like):
One for the needs, one for comfort. One from UBI, one from work.
The comfort currency can pay for your right to have more than 1 kid covered by UBI.
It didn’t work in Finland, they scrapped it after trialling it on 2,000 people for 2 years. They became happier but jobless as no one wanted to work or they couldn't find jobs. Then people won't want to do low paid jobs such as supermarkets or fast food or manufacturing. The system will grind to a halt. They will have to pay more money/double the salary to get people to do low paid jobs or work in general. Food prices will go up, rent will go up, fuel will go up as they will have to pay everyone more. Hyper inflation. Covid furlough/stimulous schemes showed how disatrous this was for the economies worldwide who did this. We're paying for this now. But let's do something similar and it'll be better this time, pinky promise. Oh my lord this is crazy.
ESOPs (Employee Stock Ownership Plans) are the way of the future 👌
Btw, cities don't suck. Suburbs suck. Check out some urbanist content some day when you're bored. You won't be able to unsee how terrible North American city planning is :D
Agree, any system that is deeply inefficient over time will become more unsustainable eg Suburbs of USA.
I appreciate your passion for AI and the information provided on your channel.
However, I respectfully disagree with your statement that the default value of creativity is zero.
As someone who has worked as an artist in the game industry for 14 years, and with a close friend who is a software engineer with over 20 years of experience, we have encountered numerous claims that our professions will be the first to be replaced by AI. However, in our experience, AI lacks the inherent creativity that humans possess.
Creativity is not a chaotic process; rather, it is a skill that allows us to transform disorderly elements into something meaningful based on our personal experiences. AI-generated art, on the other hand, often consists of random combinations of billions of images. If you were to ask an AI to create an image of a beautiful woman, it would not truly comprehend the concept of "beauty." It would merely compile images labeled as beautiful by people worldwide and train itself accordingly.
In contrast, when you ask an artist to paint a portrait of a beautiful woman, they infuse their own personal perspective and create a representation that reflects their vision and imagination. Artists have their own dream girl, dream house, dream car, and dream life. AI, in its current state, lacks the capacity to dream or possess subjective experiences.
While AI has made significant advancements and has its own merits, it still falls short in capturing the essence of human creativity.
I gotta say: that office setup is zen AF
No need any improvement visually. You are already the best anyway. Just put more and more content out there, we will be here for you.
You are oversimplifying the consequences.. and you only think about the US and Europe. Think about India.. china .. South America, everywhere where there are no strong Labor unions. as soon as it’s possible, employees will be laid off all over the world. 90% of the people worldwide have no emergency funds and are living pay check to paycheck .. when unemployment will rapidly increase (maybe in 2 years), pressure on social services will be enormous (that’s if you are lucky to live in a country that offers one), if there are no governmental programs or support system then you will be screwed… families have mortgages to pay all over the world.. school fees and and and.. they will start defaulting on payments.. housing markets collapse.. a 1929 global crash .. with little hope of a rebound because jobs are gone forever.