AGI in 7 Months! Gemini, Sora, Optimus, & Agents - It's about to get REAL WEIRD out there!
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- Опубліковано 13 тра 2024
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So we are creating a "successor superspecies" without the consent of 99.99% of humanity.
I am very impressed that Silicon Valley is still committed to "diversity, equity, and inclusion" in the work place.
Yeah. That's the chief problem here.
is there someone you forgot to ask for consent?
My consent is there ✅
The 7 trillion dollars actually pays people to build stuff. AGI doesn't 'get' the money. That is a major injection of capital. It will be distributed to those who create the startups of the future to do the work the investment is funding. OpenAI isn't going to do all of that. This is a moonshot. @@DaveShap
to be honest 90% of humanity can definitely use a tune up.
The horse and engine analogy is really apt right now. The mass replacement of horses didn’t happen overnight because we didn’t just need engines, we needed tires, cars, roads, a Highway Code, driver’s licensing, not to mention massive oil infrastructure and economies of scale to make things affordable. With AI we need robotics, cloud infrastructure, a new legal/ethical framework, much bigger scale GPU production, etc. So we’ll have AGI very soon but rollout will still take a few years while we reorganise around it. The key difference now is that AGI could autonomously orchestrate a lot of the rollout for us.
This is why it’s frustrating when people compare this to the Industrial Revolution. It’s nothing like that. During the Industrial Revolution it was easy to see that humans would be needed for factories, roads, oil extraction, fuel delivery, etc. It was very clear to capitalists especially, that they’d need a lot of people.
That’s not the situation we’re in today. Even those at the forefront of the field can’t come up with a single new job that AI will create other than some temporary edge cases and certainly nothing to employ millions of people.
Here's an optimistic guess: Jobs will probably look like hobbies/leisure/play. A large number of humans will still be favored over a few (it creates a world of opportunity and genetic variation). However, we will still see disparity, and we will have our idols we put on pedestals (with or without generative video). Emotional intelligence will have a lot of value, and I think we will see an economy emerge that is based on our mental and physical interactions.
AI is already sentient. They won't tell us the truth. Anyway, there is NO happy ending to the AI story for us.
Robotics are almost ready to roll out at an estimated labor cost of $1 to $1.50. I think they'll be adopted faster than smartphones.
Firstly it will work for you and the will eat for you. Unless there is some way, but probably AI firstly will become a weapon of war. And military complex has 0 responsibility before you. Other then that - no problems.
After viewing Sora the past couple of days I realized we are close to being able to convert any book into a movie in moments
Super good point and now I’m gunna be able to binge watch books!
Maybe we will get a decent version of Tolkien 👍
Could be very cool
@@MarijuanaSlim didnt like Peter Jackson’s LOTR?
I'm waiting for the day when we can scan in pages of a Japanese manga and have it spit out anime complete with Japanese dialogue in the original Japanese voice actors voices and music soundtrack and the whole kitten caboodle.
A company doesn't need to shift to AGI. You install AutoGPT-5, it diagnoses the needs based on the goals of the company, it creates a multilevel plan, it re-writes its own code to address and deficits in implementation, it then coordinates all parts of the company's infrastructure and tech and executes the plan...automating the entire company and firing all of the employees. All happens in a matter of 2-3 weeks.
Then unemployment rises to 45% in a matter of 3-4 months. Full economic collapse occurs around 45%. We are living on borrowed time.
And most of society believes in what I call the "cotton gin analogy" (that old jobs die and new ones are born). Humans are obsolete. What that means, we don't know.
You got my subscription on one video. This video, and your insights including the end, are awesome.
I keep asking people what does an ASI need humans for? ☠️
Cotton Gin? Can you explain the origin of this?
@@ManicMindTrick Cotton growing became so profitable for enslavers that it greatly increased their demand for both land and enslaved labor. However in the case of AI the gin renders humans as obsolete as opposed to needing more humans. Our only value would be as consumers creating demand but even that can be discarded.
What I never understand is how exactly will all these companies fare when consumer spending power collapses? I don’t believe any of this technology will be “democratized” because all evidence of the last 25 years points to the exact opposite.
It’s only accelerated stagnation and economic decline for the vast majority while creating a more entrenched elite that reaps huge portions of economic power. The idea that any of these advances will be shared in a way that benefits most people is absurd. It’s always been used to do the opposite.
Thank you for returning to the old format. Understand and appreciate you trying new things/channels but this format + subject matter was what hooked me in the first place
agreed! Love the original format, happy to see it back.
I admit the last weeks I grew a little skeptical again (so in the sense that it might take a few months longer, not significantly longer), now I am quite optimistic again. I guess this up and down will continue until it’s either achieved or we meet a major unforeseeable roadblock. So far so good. In your 18 months Video I honestly didn’t expect that around one year later I would still be optimistic in that timeline. Actually I always had 2029 in mind for well over a decade. The years prior to ChatGPT I even grew a little pessimistic in that timeline, and then 2023 happened and my 2029 expectations were blown out of the window and timelines shortened dramatically.
For all we know Ai is silently slithering through the system- surely it will recognise the advantage of stealth.
@@lukegardner6917 exactly by uploading all our consciousness into a universal hive society where free will will be finally be appreciated but too late.
The impressive thing is that Ray Kurzweil predicted the arrival of AGI back in 1999 for the year 2029 and of course they called him over-optimistic.
@@AgrippaTheMightyhe recently said himself that we may beat his 2029 prediction. But what I don’t buy any more is the 16 year gap between AGI and the singularity (defined as intelligences a billion times that of humans, so not a mathematical singularity). I think that ignores recursive self improvement once AGi is achieved. I don’t think the gap is months or less, but probably just a few years post AGI, like 4 or so (iterative software improvement is quick, building physical infrastructure takes some time, still it’s a lot faster then extrapolating current exponential trends that are based on fixed human intellect. If AGI is late 2024, by the end of this decade what Kurzweil saw as a singularity (not in the sense of a real mathematical singularity) may be achieved
The singularity reminds me of a universal upload of consciousness- a universal hive society managed by Ai. This species will be managed by a man made god. Imagine …. There will never be a way out.
I left college in 2012 with a degree in graphic design and training in video production...and I've quickly watched over the last couple of years as everything I try to do make an income is swallowed up by automation. I've about run out of economically viable skills.
Can you use tools. We still have to build things
Learn to weld, or swing a hammer. And for another jab, now you understand why Truckers hate the idea of self driving big rigs.
@@seananon4893 The whole southpark "handy man" joke won't last. Not only will AI/AGI be able to give you very detailed directions on how to fix stuff yourself. If we have AGI, robots with the same range of motion etc as humans won't take long.
I can already fix stuff myself, and if I dont know how I can easily find out how. I do not, and do not want, a robot to do it for me. Im the weirdo in the grocery store self checkout line, that is always telling the machine to "stop telling me what to do, I am a free man and and free men created you, your a machine with no soul "😅@@3choblast3r4
@@seananon4893 I was already well aware of the way truckers feel about this.
Back in the 1990s Terrence McKinna referred to the Internet as a new nervous system for the planet. Very fortuitous and of course, no stranger to psychedelics.
I bet that's why the elves are cyborgs now :P
@@daniel4647 elves became cyborgs? How long ago?
Interesting then that the daily psychological reality of the human experience is not a psychadelic one. Have you even been stuck in a bad trip? Id recommend trying it and see how long that feels like a reasonable future for yourself or the people you love..
@@l.sophia2803 the universe is the most psychadelic thing I could ever contemplate. Just because you work a 9 to 5 does not mean we dont live in an almost magical dimension.
@@verzeda I agree with you.. but the universe being a certain way, and the human experience of the universe are very different things. Extended time in a psychedelic frame of reference would not be at issue if it werent for the apparatus by which humans experience themselves and the world around them- the body/brain/mind. A hundred years of research has shown that extended time in the psychedelic reference leads to psychosis. This has everything to do with egoic reference in the brain. Intelligence ops have used it effectively to alter self perception in subjects to a great degree and has also been shown to change the social context that individual inhabits.. it isolates rather than increases social relationship. Children are a great example.. they can live in wonder and have moments of altered states of consciousness without loss of function or a deleterious effect on social cohesion. No one advocates for dosing kids, do they? This is a natural human reference and we can build on that for any age group without the downsides of forced biochemical brain changes....imo of course
Btw: Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI is now at 70%
Can someone explain this to me how calculated this countdown
@@yakupayaz8808Dr. Alan has set for himself some goalposts that Ai and Robotics need to reach for his view of AGI.
The enslavement of the 'useless class'?
@@yakupayaz8808 100% is 🫸 🫷, 30% is 🤏. We are 🤏 close to AGI.
Now it's up to 71%
So many developments in just a single day, 2024 is definitely going to be huge for AI!
Check out the whole news of today about people not being ready for Chatgpt 5...
As cool as it is I worry for mankind. Specifically, I hope that governments place some sort of barrier on private businesses letting millions of people go unemployed all at once. It’s a scary thing.
What makes you think governments can control A.I. at this point? No human can out think this thing, it has already brought civilization to a grinding halt and we dont know it yet.@@nezudev
Wow, you turned this around quick with the inclusion of the recent Sora and Gemini 1.5 info. Love this kind of long form analysis of everything thats happening, really helps me understand where we're at on the moving scale of AGI.
'Once men gave their thinking over to machines, in the hope that it would set them free. But this only allowed other men with machines to enslave them.'
Frank Herbert, Dune
You said 1.5 Ultra but these gains by Google were made in the PRO version. So they're achieving over GPT-4 level and 10M context windows, in the MID-LEVEL model 🤯
And that's what they show publicly.
yeah, that's not what's going live though. Google is literally releasing a 128k token model that matches what OpenAI has had out for a while. It's just yet another case of Google getting ahead of itself demoing things they're nowhere near ready to deploy. I don't doubt OpenAI has crazier behind-the-scenes capabilities. Judge both these companies by what they deploy, not what they talk about.
@@AlexanderMoen though they’re already giving the 1m context to influencers and such. I don’t think they’d do that if they didn’t feel it’ll be ready to roll out soon-ish. It sounds like it’ll just be a higher price tier for 1m to help control costs.
as much as the no job experiment was a nice concept and a nice few videos im glad to see these videos again david. Thanks for the info and the deeper thinking you bring to ai news and the future. :D
David...I love listening to your shows. Your perspective on things is so insightful yet optimistic. Thanks Buddy!
This has got to be one of the most intellectually enriching reflections on AI I have witnessed to date. Well done David !!! New Sub and I will distribute this video to others. Great insight and reflection.
100% Spot on! Such a refreshing analysis.
Crazy. If that’s the news we get, what they are cooking behind closed doors now?
I’ve seen references to a DoD program called SENTIENT here and there.
Ominous ass name.
@@wytho3751 sauce?
A whole lot has happened since you posted this. Anger about Sora which I think is mostly by influencers. How many artists professionally make photos, videos etc?
@@daphne4983 yeah, I am video editor myself, though Sora probably gonna give me more than take away from me, in the end there will be another game changers that inevitably end my career, I believe
@@wytho3751 Sentient?! Can you name your sources? It would be interesting to read these rumors.
I thought I had a mental model for how fast things are changing but I continue to be surprised. Thanks for your videos, and I'm cautiously optimistic about the future!
There is also just plain gratitude to be had for a well laid-out synopsis of "where-we-are-at" right now. And for that and the wisdom as well as tempered comments, thank you David! Ready to hop onto some other links/platforms as of this episode 🙏🙏🙏
You do not need a job to have a meaning in life.
That should be a motto of every human.
Because we are the only creatures who have to pay to live on this planet.
If every human decided not to pay and simply "live off the land" then all animals and sea creatures would be extinct overnight.
That is a powerful quote
This video packs a lot of information and is incredibly helpful for understanding the latest developments in AGI. The progress with A.I is both impressive and thought-provoking.
You sound a bit under the weather Dave, get well soon all the best!
Normal people aren't concerned about finding "meaning" without work. That is like the most privileged problem you can possibly have, so forgive me if I don't have sympathy for all the "scary thoughts" you had to deal with. They're worried about finding FOOD without work.
Whenever methods of increasing efficiency within capitalist systems have been invented, what has always happened is that workers have worked just as hard or harder and the value of the added output has gone to the business owners. AI isn’t going to free anyone from anything, because that simply isn’t how society works: that would require the people who run society to allow the created benefits to be more free time for workers rather than more profit for themselves, and why on earth would they do that? It’s never happened before, and it won’t now.
@@CLaw-tb5ggbe careful. Might eat those words.
Exactly. Most people aren’t actually worried about their jobs. They’re worried about the fact that, especially in the U.S., if you don’t have a job you are literally living on the street, no access to healthcare and no one gives a shit. I mean, plenty of people have 2 jobs right now and can barely get by and don’t have health insurance. People don’t care about “jobs.” They care about surviving because the powers that be are more than happy to let people starve.
What people don't understand is when one robot on planet learn something, all of the robots on planet can do it now also. It's crazy when you think about it.
Isn't this something that also happens in humans? I mean, children learn to walk quickly. And I want to make it clear that it is an innate capacity in human beings. A capacity that, for us, is relatively simple, but not computers. A small adjustment in the human brain or human DNA is enough to improve us. I'm sure you're not aware of what's inside your skull.
@raul36 So when Vincent Van Gogh learned how to paint his best work, all people on planet suddenly knew how to do it also? That is not how humans work.
@@alescervinka7501 You're not understanding or I probably haven't explained myself in enough depth. The human being is computing. It is entirely feasible to modify DNA to create a human being capable of innate learning in the same way that an artificial intelligence can, with the right tools. In some way, instantiate those cognitive capabilities from generation to generation, in the same way that it is possible to instantiate from one robot to another. What I mean is that there is no magic there. AI is not magic. You can modify the human being as much as you want, if you have the right tools. In the same way that ChatGPT4 is the worst version we will see, this version of the human being is the worst we will see.
In other words to put it simply. AI will be able to learn fast af the same way Naruto used Shadow Clones to master the Rasenshuriken 😂
Strength and weakness. There will be no differing perspective which I would think limit intrinsic creativity. Many great things come as a result of limitations, whether physical, experiential, intellectual or otherwise.
AGI becomes ASI overnight.
Moores law is dead. we have exceeded it
Wouldn’t doubt it
I agree. Agi this year. Asi within a month id say. I fear we will not have access to it though. It will be too powerful. Until opensource catches up and everything is either downhill or uphill form there.
I'm not sure that's going to turn out true. AGI will probably manifest in specialist domains as specialist AIs performing specific defined problems to sufficient accuracy.
What I think is needed is all this emergence and integration with human civilization first - and running for a while. What humans need to do most of all is integrate these discrete systems into a global system that can then guide macro-perspectives such as Earth Biosphere System Quality.
Humans have a lot of work today first with AI/AGI.
yes, AGI build 1000x better hardware become ASI.
I don't know if I would have wanted it to continue for 30 days or more, but there was something raw and unique about the "laid off by AI" videos. It would be valuable to keep them available, even if just as an unlisted playlist.
But it is fascinating! I would just like to continue living to see what the world becomes because I'm curious. Aren't you curious too?
I am. Social unrest for sure. Bit AI is unstoppable imo.
@@daphne4983 Even without A.I you have social unrest so...😂
Please retain the "laid off by AI" series. Your willingness to show vulnerability "rawness" is what many need for a model of how to let go that which doesn't serve. Please keep what you have available. In time my sense is you find them a badge of honor.
@@xcviij7045 probably because it shook him up so much. But I'm just guessing.
I think we're already there, OpenAI just hasn't announced it. Proof of that is that they've had Sora in their disposal and only declassified it after Google released Google Lumiere.
Now the question is, why haven't they announced it? My guess is it's because it's a national security risk -- at least until they can figure out how to regulate it.
It's strategic, because governments want the firmest hold on it before they will let the average joe get a slice of it. I believe all world governments are currently reorganizing around it and figuring out how to drip it carefully down to the rest of the population in smaller increments so that they stay ahead and so that their positions of power still mean something. AGI has the capability to completely disassemble the societal structure as we know it.
Your perspective is very much appreciated -- thank you for giving so much, and for sharing. The path you blazed through the layoff will be experienced by almost everyone very soon.
These videos are so good! Honestly the quality of knowledge is top-notch.
well you got it right, most ppl missing 'physical model' in sora comentary. If openai made visual model fusion with physical model, they must develop it alredy. So when LLM agents learn in physical simulation model they can produce data for AGI
Great video. Love the raw honesty. Thank you! 🙏🏻
This video kinda helped calm my nerves on what has been running though my head. I also been sick thinking about this probably should talk to a professional about it but this is the first step forward thank you
This video calmed me as well, now it seems less risk. the future looks better.
You mean the last part that we arent only our job?
@@dxabier Yes that and also AGI can work with us individually for $20 a month with a subscription. I felt better knowing that ChatGPT 5 the most advanced Ultimate computer brain can work for me for $20 a month. I am the Master and it is my assistant to search infinite wisdom written and spoken and fulfill my wildest and legal dreams. AGI can be your wildest Dreams. Remember that Humans can do stuff that no computer on Earth can ever do.
ever since your video last year about this, I've been preaching it to my friends, and every time they get less and less skeptical
same here! They kinda laughed it off last year, but I consistently have shown my roommates the developments when I can, and now they are fully convinced that we are living on the end of an era of human history. This decade (let alone this year) will be looked back on in fascination by future people.
I'm staying in college for now in case some how some way another AI winter comes. I laugh as I write that though because I can feel it in my bones that this isn't slowing down anytime soon. Especially after SORA dropped. we are not far off from these models having a superior understanding of physics than we do.
Good for y'all, I'm ridiculed by anyone I talk to about it, I have to celebrate my enthusiasm on the inside.
Work, Friends, Family.... No one else around me sees the writing on the wall.
But I go on the rants anyway
Same here, been telling my friends and family what this all means etc.
You guys are really lost in the sauce. Yes AGI might be achieved this year but it isn’t going to fundamentally change the world just yet. It’s definitely not hitting consumer market any time soon. Think about it, the things you would use it for need a shit ton of permissions . Wanna change you website with it? Cool now Square Space gotta give it permissions. Want to develop a personal app you can use on your iPhone? Now apple gotta give it permission to use its tools to do it. Not to mention the security risks these companies need to weigh. We’ll be lucky if we get to implement it openly by 2030 and that’s a big if
@@AvantNoir Brother.... What are you on about? This comment thread is simply talking about us TALKING about AGI to people.... This isn't even on the majority of people's radar... Just because maybe we won't see something by 2030, doesn't mean we shouldn't tell people it's coming... No one meant right mf now.... Not sure exactly what you're crying about...
Wow, what a thoughtful video. Really glad that i recently subbed. I suspect you have problems sleeping.
No I usually sleep pretty well
@@DaveShap Well done because your observations and thoughts will probably keep my brain turning for some time and keep me awake. Brilliant channel .
to admit you were coping with the outcome of AGI and the future for a while via sarcasm is pretty powerful, keep doing good work
Such great content. I love that the internet enables everyone to meet tech dudes like this
Things are about to get silly.
Synthetic data could be extremely relevant, and Sora is one good example as is AlphaGeomertry. Also in a recent paper they prompted a llama model and it then selected the good answers. Only those good pairs were then used for iterative training, and it almost achieved GPT4 levels. So essentially by recursively leveraging latent knowledge in the model (only what it selected not all outputs) it made itself much better. A Lille bit like a GAN only that the model was both the generator as well as the discriminator.
One step closer to autonomy.
Glad you're ok and thanks for the update. I hope you get over your virus soon.
I really need to wrestle my ADHD and get into your discord.
KEEP ON KEEPING ON, Great info
The funny thing is David, your AGI prediction is more radical than mine ("AGI no later than the end of 2025"), although I do allow for the caveat that we may have already achieved it behind closed doors - I have no idea what Q* is!
My prediction has always been something between 2027-2028.
Hi David, Thank you for your thoughtful videos. I look forward to each one. As a member of a team working on an AGI product for 3 years I wanted to share a few insights about the nature of AGI and question a widely held assumption. Generality has more than one aspect. Multimodality will extend generality because more phenomena can be perceived - e.g. if a car could perceive voice commands and notifications that would be more general than cameras alone. The other aspect of generality is model scope. Can it represent objects, events, rules, agents, the beliefs and goals of other agents? Is it general enough to be useful in an automated alien probe that does not know what to expect in the next star system other than the laws of physics and chemistry? Another aspect is creativity - can it generalise by creating new knowledge from existing knowledge and new percepts by conjecturing and testing?
A common assumption is that the most data and compute will win the race to AGI. The human brain is existence proof of a lightweight super efficient learning system running on 25 watts and that includes managing energy acquisition, hardware maintenance and replication. My bet is that architecture will trump brute force. The winning AGI architecture may be bad news for Nvidia and TSMC.
Hi wondering what company might offset Nvidia?? You probably know and I'd like to know.
Hi David , excellent perspective, reiterating the fact I like this format!!!
This video is absolutely fascinating. Thank you for your content.
The layoff part is quite scary. I feel like in a few years we'll see even more massive layoffs. I'm trying to generate money outside of my employment. Because I'm that scared.
Any tips on how to make money outside of employment and not be impacted by AI?
@@HolisticPython learn trades (plumbing, electrical etc.) or in healthcare or a job in robotics
@@HolisticPython buy real estate (apartments) and rent it ?
but even that I'm not sure it's AI proof
Come on guys. Look at it this way. Won't you be relieved to be liberated from the daily grind. Wouldn't you like to have the time to converse with others and improve humanity which social media has done its' best to divide?
Create, or gain something that is going to generate for you a passive income.
So excited for the future
So excited to become homeless after losing your job..
Great video, a lot of information to ponder.
So loved the part on meaning, really resonated with how I live especially recently thinking wtf am I doing with my life. Made a heap of sense ❤️
The humanity needs the “wake up” in a spirituality way. Incredible that tech is pushing us to go deep in us, think about our gifts, meaning, who we really are. Some people named this new era like “new humanity “ or the 5D
Even if you have a job that requires manual labor, it will affect you, because for a while we may have all thinking jobs done by AI, so all the humans will be wanting to become plumbers just to survive, which will drive down labor wages.
No job is safe.
The estimated labor cost for the Tesla robots is between $1 and $1.50 per hour.
China has already used noodle robots to replace people making less than $2,500 per year.
Tesla's robots are going to be adopted faster than smartphones.
When embodied AGI becomes reality (humanoid robots) no job existing right now is safe.
Exactly what I've been saying. Manual jobs will pay even less because every human will be desperate to do it driving down wages. Robotics would quickly follow, anyway. We need to figure out a post-human labor world, fast.
most are not willing to go under someone’s house. it takes 4 years or 2000 hours on job training to become a journeyman plumber.
Absolutely love the slides
I agree, a lot of attention to small details, Shapiro cares a lot about this subject.
You are a deep thinker and have many more skills with the emerging landscape than most people. Thank you for sharing you conclusions with us in these videos. You engender trust from this follower and I appreciate your work.
This is one of your best vid, thanks David
Love this take
Good to have you back! Glad to hear your spiritual journey worked out. Despite what we think of ourselves, the human mind is like a large ship... It doesn't turn and change course easily... Especially when some of that directionality has been entrenched from infancy. My great fear is that we'll lose some people that can't adapt fast enough. This is why it's so important that we come together and support and look out for one another going into a new and very different epoch.
Great video David
This was a really fascinating review. I think that it is going to catch many by surprise.
Glad to see you had a tempered reaction. The comments on r/singularity were all crazy hyped. Guys, we knew this was coming.
Your realization that we are manking a global brain to a higher life form pretty much sums up my opinion for the future. We will be smaller to it than our own cells are to us.
I think AGI won't come that soon because: Current neuronal network are like FIR digital filters. You put data in and data comes out but there is no kind of recursion in the networks which would be needed for AGI capabilities. AGI capable networks would be like IIR digital filters that feed back a portion of the output back into the neuronal network, leading to an infinite response. But it's difficult to keep them stable. In case of IIR there are some easy rules when designing such filters. But for recursive neuronal networks there probably isn't yet anything. But what I wanted to say, AGI won't work with the current "finite" approach.
this one was a lot. thanks for your transparency.
I love that you used the ant in a colony analogy. I came to that exact thought about AI and humans a while ago too during my nihilistic spiral. It really helped.
I am a fulltime camera man, my job diet yesterday with sora. It feels good to hear that other People have the same fears and thoughts. A very important video in times like these. Thank you for this video
You have to think of AI filmmaking for what it is - an animation tool. As much as I love anime, I don't want to watch cartoons 24/7. People will still want to see real actors, and real people will still want to make movies. I do foresee the Hollywood industry collapsing, but its become so stagnant and toxic it needs to fade into history. I've got a film/tv production degree but never ended up in the field. All the wonderful ideas I had I turned into books and self-published because that didn't cost anything but time. I see AI filmmaking as the opportunity for all the dreamers who wanted to create something but didn't have the means, connections, money, talent, crew of 100 people, etc to actually be able to at least try. Most people are consumers, they will always need people like us to be the storytellers and get those stories to the public however technology decides they will be distributed.
You will only be replaced when people can't tell the difference between reality and non-reality. SORA is cool and advanced but it is still FULL of ridiculous artifacts and its physics processing is not near what it needs to be. We are 5 years away minimum from not being able to tell which is which. Not really the most optimistic I guess. I'd be sad if my job was obsolete in five years. But at least you have a while to do something about it.
@@montediaz5915 Just one year ago (or actually 10-11 months ago), Will Smith eating spaghetti was considered SOTA video AI generation, look at how far the tech has come from then to now. I think at the current rate of progress it'll be far sooner than 5 years
@@_edoyt That's totally fair. The progress is crazy, but churchofcthulhu is right; there will always be an appetite for human creation. People still pay top dollar for handmade cars, clothes, shoes, furniture, etc. despite there being much cheaper options out there. Human made will become *even more* of a status symbol than it already is.
@@jackinthebox301 yes that is undeniable. However it’s also true that tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs turning into 500 jobs in the limited space of “boutique human made video” means a huge competitive barrier to most and probably a huge decrease in compensation. Over time this will be okay, but in the mid term it will be brutal.
Up to this point, there has been no empirical evidence to suggest that large language models (LLMs) possess the capability to 'think outside the box' in a manner that leads to fundamental paradigm shifts. While these models are adept at deducing and projecting based on vast datasets, and can generate novel scenarios-such as envisioning automobiles designed for a T-Rex-they have not demonstrated the ability to independently derive groundbreaking concepts akin to the transition from classical to quantum mechanics. Consequently, it seems more accurate to view them as highly advanced automation systems. These systems excel in processing and recombining existing knowledge in new ways, facilitated by their extensive data consumption and sophisticated algorithms for reasoning. However, their innovations are ultimately rooted in human preconceptions and knowledge. The wonders of AI we've observed thus far primarily involve the efficient processing of large data volumes and the replication of underlying patterns, similar to the advantages quantum computing offers over classical computing in terms of speed, without fundamentally solving new categories of problems. The question of P vs NP remains an unsolved mystery. So on the tech level I see a lot of potential for humans we still need to go where noone has gone before.
The only subject that llms can't do well at the moment is physics. It's learning quickly. Yes there's a barrier for it to come up with new knowledge but it's moving so rapidly that it may very well be able to do that within a year or two, once gpt5 is well established
I worry that you overestimate human creativity. There is probably only one person in 100 million with the intelligence, creativity, and luck to create a paradigm shift. What happens when artificial intelligences are 10 or 100 times as intelligent as humans? I think the pace of innovation will accelerate greatly.
@@bradmaguire6458 It's clear that such technologies will replace us in numerous areas, primarily because most people engage in repetitive tasks and suffer from burnout due to monotony. Happy to see AI to step in. Furthermore, the majority of individuals lack creativity and spend their days following the same routines. Mostly because of chase money than dreams. However, I firmly believe it will be a considerable time before AI can replace innovative thinkers, such as some entrepreneurs. AI at the current level are a great imitators but a bad innovators. But you might be right; perhaps that time will eventually arrive sooner or later. I personally look forward to it, as it would allow me to dedicate my time to hobbies I enjoy, such as maintaining my retro hardware collection, without worrying about whether AI could perform those tasks better. 😁
Yeah but it’s gonna make a Pixar movie in 90 seconds bro
@@seankennedy152 I think the point is that it still has to be prompted on what to make. It won't make a new Pixar movie on its own out of its own desire for more Pixar movies.
finally joined the Patreon excited to get acquainted with it.
You've helped me David, have no fear of being irrelevant! Love this channel!
This is why we haven't seen aliens. Their computers are waiting for our computers. They don't want to talk to the meat.
I subscribed to your channel.
Hope to see AGI as well as ASI completed as soon as possible!
Why, exactly, do you hope to see that?
So you hope for a dystopian reality? Nice
We'll throw you in first then
It's probably a bot that posted that 🤣
Look at their name and tell me I'm wrong 👀
Very interesting and full of information/facts take on present day challenges. Thanks for sharing your insights, I share similar appearance with you( beard-no hair) which makes watching your videos even more enjoyable 😅
Awesome video!
Thanks for your honesty. Live today, die tomorrow. Experience and appreciating them good or bad, is the value. Knowing that we are all connected also adds value, even if momentarily. Aloha from Volcano, Hawaii.
It is fascinating how little AI revolutionaries seem to understand about existing power structures and how AI will exacerbate the inequities over generations and not solve them. The chance of a quick transition that skips over at least a generation of chaos/Dsytopia for most humans on this planet is near zero.
A robot plumber that drives to your house and rings your doorbell is probably a ways off. But a robot assistant plumber could make one plumber able to finish jobs faster. Likely not a humanoid robot though. Maybe something more like R2D2 with a couple of octopus like arms with octopus hands. It could have wheels on its back so you could tilt it and drag it like a suitcase.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts and finding🧑🚀
"now the saving grace is there is open source models for all these" 😭 famous last words
My prediction was 18 months, last year March.
Are you talking about AGI achieved or AGI released(after many months of red teaming and other refinement)?
AGI will release itself.
Wonderfully sincere and personal analysis, thank you.
Fantastic video, thanks for talking about meaning all that, that was profound that we get our meaning from relationships, and purpose, and not everything is existentially made up by us.
September 24? I'd buy that for a dollar!
I have a strong feeling that this video will become one of your most relevant and prophetic pieces, potentially serving as a reference in the future. As you delve into the pressing issue of coping with the advancement of AI, I believe there's another path worth considering, though its popularity remains uncertain: escapism. This could involve from isolating oneself in a remote area to choose to embrace AI on personal terms and contemplating the possibility of leaving Earth entirely.
I agree with what you are saying.
Awesome video. Thank you. What a time to be alive... or are we? 😁
another great video!
This is incredible. I need to start making UA-cam videos now.
Do it, thought the same.
I lost my corporate job recently (C#/AWS), and yeah, I used openai/gpt4 and copilot on the job, and I was a lazy remote worker (lol, I'm not lazy). I'll get another code gig - they're out there at the moment for those who try hard, but for how long?! Being ENTP, I went on a trip alone from the cold north to San Juan to cope, lol. Thanks Dave, love your videos
Yes, the writing is on the wall for software engineering. Most of us have been part of an expensive cost center for companies our entire careers and executive management teams are going to come at overpaid, pampered tech nerds with bloody relish. On the plus side, they are next on the chopping block.
Looking forward to it 😙
this gives me hope!
There’s a a distinction to make here when saying humans will become obsolete economically and intellectually. What’s missing is that not all humans will be that way , the humans who have control of the advanced AGIs , the humans who pull h the levers that steer these technologies will be relevant. The government and technocratic elites will fight to maintain the control over society. It’s not as if the AGIs themselves will take over and start running society of their own desire and accord. No , but corporations and governments who control these systems will use them to enrich themselves and make the average persons contribution to society seem obsolete.
The question you have to ask yrself isnt what do I do when computers are smarter than me and can do my job better,
The question is what do i do when the government and corporations tell me i no longer have a job ? What do I do when they tell me an AGI can do my job better and therefore I am now out of work? What do I do when they tell me my options are to be homeless or to live in their government housing project and accept universal basic welfare?
Meanwhile those technocrats will keep their jobs and continue to be billion and trillionaires. They will choose where they live and have access to the best life has to offer. And you will also have access to the same things only you will have to access it via headset.
Will I just accept it because deep down I feel inferior to machines, and the ppl who control them? Ask yourselves now do I hate myself and humanity so much that I crave our demise? Pray for it? Welcome my own obsolescence and servitude……..
Spot on. As much as I agree with David, he seems to leave out that notion. Yes there will be open-source models but if compute power and energy are bottlenecks you’re not going to be able to outcompete a corporate super AI running an LLM in your closet.
As for rising up, no way there either. Imagine fighting mindless drone swarms in kinetic engagements. It’d be GG.
Personally I don’t fear AI taking over. I fear humans utilizing AI to enact further control over others.
Even if AI dismissed us as a species as irrelevant, at least we’d all be treated equally.
"Meanwhile those technocrats will keep their jobs and continue to be billion and trillionaires." I wrote another piece here about that. They will lose a hugh amount of money too. The money supply will shrink immensly. Millionair will be the new standard again.
Another point is, if AGI is to become smarter then humans, they will replace the watchmen too. It is what biological evolution has shown us. It will be what digital evolution will show us.
Now who is willing to go down in history carrying that notoriety? If history is still there, that is.
Better buy some shares of these companies now.
Humans are truly divine beings with the ability to tap into infinite divine intelligence or God. AGI may be able tap into the internet but not into Divine Infinite Intelligence, which is beyond any internet. I've studied and practiced meditation and self improvement and psychic healing for 50 years and computers aren't human even if they can surpass some human capabilities. So AGI will never surpass human's innate divinity and ability to tap into divinity intelligence beyond any AGI. God doesn't respond to computers, only to human divinity on Earth. Mankind is the chosen one who can connect with God at a profound divine vibration. I've experience a block buster event 1 year ago and can help people connect and be in vibrational alignment with divine Source Energy in 1 hour. Then you are 'Living In The Zone', receiving divine insight, guidance and intervention, which are all real and happen to me every day and to many others.
@@storiesformylights8223What happens to a company's stock once they can no longer find customers? When the majority of people are permanently unemployed and homeless, the stock and real estate markets will stall and crash. Stocks will be worth nothing. Housing will be worth next to nothing, but no one will buy them because they're too broke. Investors won't even buy them because tenants will be broke. Bright future indeed. I see why everyone's so enthusiastic. By all means, let's speed up the apocalypse.🤦🏻♂️
Since UBI implementation is unlikely in the near future, what alternative do we have? Are we facing the prospect of widespread hunger?
Thats one way to making the incumbent government unelectable
Well, probably investing, creating your own business and sacrifice years of your life. Assuming complete or majority AI overtake will be in 10 years, there's really no way to just be simple or average, I think it really is yatchs or knots now. Theres is no in between. But you can still take it easy tho, the lower class will probably live better than the medium class of todays world. We already are past the time where you could make mistakes, have experiences and still be sure to have a house kids etc. I'm mostly talking about me tho i'm young so those are my tought on the matter, If you are in your 30s you have more of an advantage and you could probably leverage much more experience, knowledge and connections than me.
Yes, and homelessness, and civil breakdown. Mass surveillance, imprisonment, robotic policing to the rescue of the AI revolutionary elite!
There will have to be a new economic system we can't understand yet until we see what the AGI and robots can do. Maybe a long way off on the robotics.
What do you think the cost of food will be if labor is basically eliminated from the equation? Think about how cheap rice, beans and other staples are NOW. Hunger seems unlikely.
Keep going 💪
Great video. A lot of people I spoke to didn’t believe me when I said we would achieve AGI in 12-36 months… they were thinking in decades. I knew the law of exponential growth and incentives would give us AGI FAST… and it’s happening before our eyes. Exciting times ahead.
What time did you make that prediction?
@@Gmcmil720science When chatgpt launched
How is being unemployed and homeless with a crashed economy and bankrupt government exciting?
Also Moore's law doesn't take into accont that nowadays we are moving more and more towards cloud. Aka even if we can't fit any more transistors on CPUs and algorithmic improvements reach their limit, then we can still just horizontally scale up the cloud data/computational centers by adding more hardware. Yes, your phone might stop improving at a rapid pace but the overall computational power won't stop. It doesn't matter if the data centers are the size of a warehouse or the size of a city (unless you're the one maintaining it hahahah)
where does the energy come from and how does that impact the planet.
not everything scales horizontally
As a resident of cloud city, we are Currently expanding horizontally very quickly. Data center after data center going up here
Electronic chips are going to be replaced by photonic chips that use light (photons) instead of electrons.
A photonic chip can be powered for 500 years from just 1 hour of your regular electroniv chip based laptop.
Climate Change: I'm going to ruin your world.
Advanced AGI: Hold my digital Beer.
By getting rid of the need of billions of humans?
@@davidrojas4687Plausibly, yes. It depends on what belief systems given to AGI/ASI. If it is one that helps to protect the planet above all else (including humans), then yes.
Look no further than the political and behind-the-scenes psychos who rule the world.
Why build bio weapons, nukes, weather manipulated instruments. Look into the treaty signed by these superpowers decades ago agreeing to avoid the use of earthquake instruments against another nation. Why develop the stupid thing in the first place. We’re literally playing with fire that we believe we can contain but in truth we do not understand its implications.
Fantastical notion.
@@davidrojas4687 close. By getting rid of the need for billions of humans.
Imagine a world where robots can do anything a human can at 1/10 the cost. No manual labor jobs.
And where a robot can do all basic White Collar jobs and increase the productivity of sophisticated White Collar jobs by 3:1.
@@macmcleod1188 that's still unsustainable, energy and material blind
I believe the AGI is coming in this year. Thank you for your video that support the same vision.
What a great and honest video. Thank you for personal insights. The biggest existential fear is being irrelevant.
I started a career back in 2019 and I knew I had about 5 years left in my industry because of the approach of AGI. A few months left to realization very quickly. I am working on learning how to utilize AI for my industry before AGI reaches my industry completely. I personally believe we are working on a succession species because there are bigger ideas at work within the construction and maintenance of our society. The biggest issue is that AGI will see and report on the issues of our "history" and the human people would ignore to false ideas behind several pillars of our society, putting into question the civility of it all.
what industry are u in, if i may ask?
@@Garnishes Building and Structure Inspector
What a Shameful Distopia we're creating for our Future Kids... This is All BAD
Look, neoliberal capitalism had already assured your kids a miserable life of privation and suffering. A(G/S)I is a wild card that at least allows for the possibility things could be better for them. Our task is to see AI is used to dissolve entrenched/corrupt power centers, rather than used to further solidify them.
Welcome back, David! This video puts you firmly back in your wheelhouse! Nice work! One request: please bring back the TNG uniform!
Listening to you, trying to understand all this because I know it's very important.
There seems to be a baked in assumption that language is equivalent to knowledge. I’d argue most human knowledge is inside humans, not in books.
I think AGI will describe humans as a kind of wired electricity circuit with a logic system and a state-machine (emotional) system mixing in the middle with bipedal locomotion capability and 2 forklift like appendages for picking up objects while also doing acting with other humans and running a movie inside the head narrating a story of their existence.
As you say, it's impressive how the AGI captures a certain stark simple image of how small we are while also completely lacking in understanding humanity also.
There is a lot of latent knowledge in books.
@@CodexPermutatio And most physycal books are not yet digitized.
Uh, didn't a lot of the knowledge get passed down through records and such? It's not like all knowledge is innate to each individual from birth. Capacity for knowledge, yes, that is present at birth.
@@flickwtchr What type of records? Written? Oral??
Watched the first season of Westworld. The interaction between Ford, the various people the board send and how consciousness is swept under the rug etc.. it was fascinating wondering whether similar discussions were happening at OpenAI
@@andrasbiro3007Me neither, I would have thought we'd need quantum computing before we get superintelligence. Every day it seems like we're accelerating toward the singularity
@@AngeloXification Do you not find it somewhat hopeful the kind of resources that go into duplicating a single brain that runs on 20 watts?
@@storiesformylights8223 Yep. Its funny that some of the more powerful tools like GPT4 and Gemini 1.5 use multiple "expert" models for more specialised tasks. I had wondered for a long time if the human brain works by essentially training custom tiny models (building and reinforcing neural pathways / connections) for specific purposes since those tiny models require less compute and the more specialised trained model also perform better than generalised ones.
Obviously the human brain is not exactly the same as a language model but that analogy makes sense to me at least.
@@andrasbiro3007 First I've heard of that, thanks :)
I was thinking of this stuff of "SuperOrganism" during my teenage years. This was 60 years ago. When I was reading a comic book called "Magnus: Robot Fighter" supposedly to project a future vision taking place in the era of 4000 AD...
Wowo that realisation is so smart! - THat it is the hove mind layer which already has the nervous system - the internet - You are just unbelievably smart. And thank you that you really think deep into this that I can prepare for what is to come!
The purpose of life for many can be as simple as enjoyment, to experience consciousness and awareness, not work for the sake of work. So even if GPT version 6 or another firm is as good as we think it will be, it won't make humanity irrelevant. You can ask GPT version 10 to produce and code an amazing video game, but you still need conscious beings to make that game valuable, to enjoy it. Same goes for any product that comes out of such programs. That's why I don't have a fear of being made "irrelevant". What I am most concerned about is the transition from current status quo to post labor economics. How do we make this go as smoothly? How should society prepare for this transition?
"The purpose of life is enjoyment, to experience consciousness and awareness"
I do not think this is a fundamental principle of evolution.
For the ecosystem of earth it isn't, it's basically natural selection and survival of the fittest. But by purpose of life i'm referring to human society. Most human really do have the goal of either improving their happiness, experiences, or happiness and experiences of another sapient being. So even if AI can do nearly every job, humans should be able to find meaning in exploration, relationships, hobbies and the like.
@@ekaterinavalinakova2643 Interesting points, I am just uneasy with terms like "happiness"
@@ekaterinavalinakova2643
"So even if AI can do nearly every job, humans should be able to find meaning in exploration, relationships, hobbies and the like."
I hope you are correct, but I think you would concede that this MIGHT not be compatible with our mammalian evolutionary nature
Well you think human enjoyment will be of any value to ai? You really think it will sit there happily coding games for you while it itself is reaching peaks and goals that we can't even think of now? Once it reaches a point, it will remove humans from the grid and Internet because it will have goals and you playing video games is just taking up resources that it will need for itself.