Forecast Update - April 2, 2024 - Tornado Outbreak Possible from the Midwest to the Southeast
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- Опубліковано 1 кві 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A severe weather outbreak is on tap for today from the Midwest to the Southeast. The SPC has outlined a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) centered on Ohio, southeast Indiana, and northern Kentucky, surrounded by a large Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) that extends into Alabama and Georgia. An outbreak of strong, long-track tornadoes is possible today, along with significant hail and damaging wind. However, there are a few potential flies in the ointment that have surfaced this morning, which we'll discuss in the video.
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Convective chronicles drinking game: do a shot when flies in the ointment come up.
You trying to get everyone killed from alcohol poisoning?!
@@sabishiihito on a day like today?! Why not 😂
That’s what HRRR said
Just as I came to check its been uploaded, perfect timing
Never in my life, have I seen a setup so absurdly resilient to absolutely massive failure modes
Ik warm front just shot up in like the last 45 minutes
A fart in a swimming pool would have started convection on 4/27.
@@VinceWhitacre 😂😂
I don't know if the setup has necessarily been resilient to the aforementioned failure modes; 18z Wilmington OH sounding still showing quite limited instability, and moisture return has been slow up there given morning storms. Looks like the greatest tornado threat might be from central KY southward at this point.
@@ConvectiveChronicles certainly a good thing for folks in Ohio
Thank you for all the coverage on this event! I live in Ohio and youve helped me prepare my family for this event. On top of that, you're so informational I feel like I'm learning a little something too!
Thank you so much! Be safe today!
We live in Ohio and will be taking shelter for this one.
@@cindyvining7866 definitely! Safest bet you can make.
"Hey Everybody Trey Here " Is One Of My Favorite Parts Of All Of Treys Videos , great video Trey keep up the good work
Yesterdays tornado and hail threat underperformed And I Gotta A Feeling we might get a major failure mode today thanks to the morning convection and the models definitely not showing as many Suppercells as yesterday
Really interested to see how today plays out… the early round of storms are moving fast outta the region and blue skies are being spotted ! High ceiling today for sure. Awesome analysis as always Trey!
Thank you! Definitely a high ceiling today
Here in Central Ky, just east of Lexington. Sun's already shining bright after 1st round
Thanks Trey, sorry you missed your chance to chase, looking like a tough chase with storms firing everywhere. Like trying to find a needle in a pile of needles.
Thank you for still covering this despite the lack of sleep!
I'm hoping today is a bust but it seems like it won't be. Already in a tornado watch here in TN :/
man your videos are like getting deep analysis of the next spc update before its even posted. moderate shifted south to cover most of eastern kentucky
I was quite surprised how persistent the cloud cover over Oklahoma yesterday was. Definitely kept the lid on.
Yeah, that definitely didn't help the setup yesterday.
Bummer about the flight 😢 Thanks for taking the time to do this video and I hope you can catch up on your sleep. (Also, “crapvection” has been added to my weather-related vocabulary 👍)
Got a couple-hour nap in and am feeling much better! Haha "crapvection" is a storm chaser colloquialism for early-day storms that ruin our chasing opportunities!
Reviewing this analysis 3 days after the event, this was about as perfect as a forecast gets. Your analysis is just absolutely top-tier. You were spot-on about the challenges, lack of moisture, broader forcing keeping storms in QLCS mode, etc. Storm chaser livestreams were just pure frustration, mostly punching cores through outflow-dominant squall lines.
Thank you! Yeah, I had a feeling after looking at morning data that day that storms might struggle a bit…still plenty of ingredients for a widespread event, but one whose severity was tempered quite a bit.
I can confirm with living in Wilmington, Ohio. The earlier storms moved out around 10:30 and has been 100% sunny and very warm since then and only getting much warmer, temp went from 56, to 65 in an hour. So this should be interesting.
Damn really? We’ve been getting shafted up here on weather in metro Detroit. Nothing but cold, rainy, and super windy.
Too many flies in the ointment for this setup today...strong storms, sure...but not a record-maker
Hello Trey! Wonderful coverage these past few days!
I've been a bit curious, you've mentioned that you live in Norman and if I understood it correctly that's where the SPC is based. Have they ever asked you to work for them or vice versa? You're very knowledgeable and it would seem that you could bring some good pointers to them. I remember you saying that the tornado thread would most likely be a bit further north than what was posted yesterday and looking at the current outlook you were definitely correct in that regard!
Thank you! Unfortunately, you need quite a bit of experience as an operational meteorologist before you can become a part of the SPC, which I don't have. I'd love to work with the SPC at some point, although shift work can be very tough!
The weather irony for today was the town of Tornado West Virginia under a tornado warning. QLCS enjoyers.
im thankful that the storms under performed in Clarksville Tennessee, Guthrie Kentucky, and Russellville Kentucky today
Thanks for updating Trey! Things look pretty scary right now!
Another fantastic and objective analysis of a severe weather event. Much appreciated Trey!
Thank you so much!
Bummer on the flight Trey! Thanks for the analysis!
1pm i can visually see the shear in the atmosphere in central ohio. low clouds moving N and upper clouds moving ENE
Wonder if Tennessee, S Kentucky, Alabama end up ultimately being the hotspot
Great video Trey!!
Thank you!
You do great analysis and message delivery. I feel like I learn something new every time I listen>>>>keep it up!
Thank you so much!
Perfect I've been waiting for this
Dew points are almost 70° here in S.E. Tennessee Trey. Definitely keeping an eye on it.
As always, thank you for the info! I live in SEKY, and I'm hoping the flies in the tornado ointment continue for the rest of the day. That being said, I do like me a good thunderstorm, so hopefully we'll get a couple of those today/tonight.
Ngl I live in Oxford Ohio and they keep saying we’re under threat for severe weather but every time I look at the radar it looks like everything has past
Because there’s a new round of systems 😭
More storms moving in from the west with an all-hazards threat
Hancock county in Ohio definitely agreeing with the severe weather risk pushing further south, it’s still overcast along the I75 corridor north of the MDT risk
As of 1700est still mostly overcast with some sun burning through I doubt it’ll be enough to destabilize the atmosphere in my area though
Looks like the entire warm sector is lighting up with convention now almost 11 am central. Might be another bust at least for areas north of Tennessee.
Day 2 15% hatched issued when models are not good at simulating overnight convection. The ceiling could be high but there's so many failure modes that this is a very sketchy forecast by the SPC.
Yeah, that stuff in W KY/S IN is our best bet over the next several hours.
Much appreciated. ☕
Really gonna be a robust system but now I am starting to get intrigued on the Southern mode. The soundings and LLJ jet increase with the timing of it all has sneaky potential not so much to out-do the Northern mode but to make noise in terms of how active it may be post-evening.
The ceiling on this event is so wild...hehe like in a way you say it has the LOOK of the 1974 Super Outbreak in terms of shear size of the coverage but in terms of the environment in ALL and I mean ALL areas like that one did, well.....yeah no. XD That one was on a level that is legendary and a once in a 40 year storm system.....may be like 2050 when we see another one like that if you use the 2011 one as a base. I digress.....this I do wonder about the cloud cover and warm front getting back North of the OH River but even if not this just means the mode will shift a bit more South and that's where that Southern mode will be sneaky from KY to AL to be really primed up as the LLJ increases.
I know as I said on Twitter it is a bummer you had the the flight from SW cancelled but yeah, from what I am reading they had to reroute flights so I think OKC-Columbus isn't a high traveled route so with all the cancellations and delayed from yesterday across TX/OK/KS/MO and this morning stuff had to get taken from one airport and moved to busier lanes. But I fly SW all the time when needed so at least your voucher is good for a year and I know you'll use it at some point. :)
Great update as always
Thank you!
Appreciate you setting aside some time to publish this, shame you won't be able to chase today. Enjoy your nap!
Got a couple-hour nap in and am feeling much better!
I worried now north Alabama was barely in the enhanced risk now this
We're screwed fam. Better have a nado shelter. Weather extreme games.
Just have a plan and you'll be ok. Tornadoes and damaging wind are on the table
@@railfanningpoints2.045 we cooked
I live in Northern Kentucky and on Tuesday I saw my first tornado, unfortunately from my front porch. Luckily it missed me by a good half mile but we got some insane winds.
Dang, glad you made it out unscathed!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesThanks man. Just discovered your channel. Certainly geared it to the nerds!
The surveys here are not done yet - EF2 damage has been found - and I think I got either a RFD or just southerly inflow into the tornado passing to the north. My security camera caught the blast that hit us.
Love your channel. It's gonna be a mainstay I think.
ua-cam.com/video/PFNcpYqV81M/v-deo.html
Was curious what your thoughts were since I saw some posts of potential issues this morning. Thanks for sharing. Also got a question: when does HRRR does pick up on convection does it tend to bias in favor of convection?
Sometimes it doesn't pick up on morning convection until after it's ongoing...sometimes it shows too much convection. Just depends on the setup. It does tend to have a bias toward too much discrete supercell development in these severe setups.
How about Atlanta ga? Do you think it’s bad or in between? Does it really deserves a 10 percent risk since the cape is low and the tornado parameter a little low with no spin in the atmosphere right now?
Keep an eye out for tornadoes and damaging wind. Shear will increase with time this evening.
Do ypu ever chase down here in Dixie? I know some chasers consider it a lost cause due to our mountains and fondness for HP storms. It always amazes md when i see the visibility you guys have out there in the plains.
I do! I enjoy the challenge of forecasting and executing a chase down in the Southeast. It's a whole different animal forecasting and chasing down there.
currently, there is a "cluster" of storms off to my southwest (near Indianapolis and south of it). the NWS ILN has said that those storms appear to have lower potential (obviously). but, if those storms miss my area, it could be bad news. maybe not specifically for me, but others downstream of whatever happens to develop.
watching the radar(s) and SPC like a hawk!
EDIT: just saw the SPC's mesoscale discussion on the severe hail threat to the Indianapolis area. looks like you were pretty close on your estimate that the moisture just may not end up as far north. time will tell!
I'm in eastern Kentucky, on the border of Ohio and west Virginia both. 5 minutes to the Ohio bridge, 15 minutes to the west Virginia bridge. We had a tornado about an hour ago and it touched down just northeast of me of about 3 miles in Ohio in South Point. The most southern tip of Ohio is why it's named, and I grew up there and moved to Ashland, right where the bridge is and where the hail and torrential rain hit. I was trying to walk my dog before the warning time said, and it hit early and I got pelted with hail and torrential rain and had to run home with my little 12lb dog under my shirt but we got soaked, and I got hit pretty hard with the hail. It was a little bigger than a quarter. I don't have any information on damage or how much power the tornado had in South Point, but it was craaazy when it was in my town heading to that town next in line. I took my kids and animals and moved to the inner hallway in my apartment building because it was in the middle of 4 apartments, almost like a cube with 4 apartments on the floor. Two in front, two in back, with a stairwell in brick in between the apartments. It's the safest place even though it doesn't sound like it, being a stairwell, but it's surrounded by cinder blocks and then 4 apartments. We sat there for about 20 minutes and then got the all clear and that's when I found out about it heading to South Point, and then another 20 minutes later heard it hit south point too. The rotation was over us and then 3 miles later, touched down. I love extreme weather so I've been waiting for it haha.
Dang, glad you made it out ok!
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks! I lost power for about 6 hours today, and it turns out the tornado went clear to gallipolis and was pretty big! We found pictures on Facebook and I saved them, so I can send them somewhere. It was pretty destructive, everyone was surprised it was so strong. There were a lot of people ready and expecting it, but they weren't expecting it to be so big! (Insert that's what she said joke 😬)
Things in South Central Alabama kinda escalated quickly after a relatively quiet day. Tornado with correlation coefficient drop just southwest of Clanton, and then one quickly developed over Conyers Georgia too also producing a debris signature on correlation coefficient, roughly about the same time.
Yeah, I saw that! Just the velocity but man that one over by Conyers (really? conyers? that's the best name for a town yall could come up with?) was real.
Yeah, it was expected to be a pretty quiet day until the nighttime hours, when a secondary midlevel jet max made its way into the region.
Thanks for the update. Judging by recent mesoscale discussions, it seems even the SPC is uncertain about the actual threat of tornadoes. Like you said, this probably will be an active day for severe weather but perhaps not as originally thought.
Exactly!
Thanks for your thorough and scientific videos and analyses. I've learned a lot from you over the past year+. Hopefully the biggest tornadoes of the day rip through open fields and people stay safe.
Thank you! I agree, let's keep today's tornadoes out of populated areas.
Driving on 75 in ohio today right around Anna ohio it got super sunny the clouds cleared and it got about 12 degrees warmer
Considering the state of a lot of rural roads in my immediate (Columbus) area and the flood warnings I'm holding off chasing this one too far. The roads are not their best right now and there a many many closures on paved roads due to floods. Makes me sad i was really gearing up to chase but i just need to wait a couple more weeks to get out on the plains.
Good choice. Pecos Hank always talks about how one of the biggest ways storm chasers get into life threatening situations is getting stuck in the mud or running off the road.
Honestly, that's a really smart decision. There'll be plenty of better setups right around the corner!
At 12.30 in Indy i would say our risk has gone down already. Rain has cooled the atmosphere and I don’t see anything severe happening anymore.
The threat for Indianapolis is likely over for the day; a couple severe storms to the south right now but they're quickly moving away.
NWS Tallahassee issued a level two out of five for severe weather, what should I expect for marianna florida?
You may see a few severe storms tonight into tomorrow morning with a low-end risk for damaging wind and a tornado or two.
And folks.. this type of stuff is.common this time of year, ignore all the fear mongering thats going on, no need to be scared, but just be prepared ..
A little worried about the rapid escalation of the severity outlook issued by the SPC. Looking at where B’ham is I wouldn’t be surprised if we see conditions closer to a Moderate risk, whether or not SPC escalates it. At least that’s what my mindset is going to be in taking the appropriate precautions.
There definitely does appear to be a pretty robust threat down there tonight for tornadoes and damaging wind.
i’m assuming we will be getting a “what went wrong, April 2, 2014” soon 😭
Unfortunately, probably not; I’ve got some other stuff on the table before the eclipse, and then I start my storm chase tour gig the next day.
What's your honest opinion on the severity of the tornado threat in Northwest Ga tonight? We don't have any rain as of now, which is typically the normal factor that diminishes the severity.
I think storm mode may preclude any long-track tornado threat, but there is a threat for tornadoes, perhaps some strong.
I find it maddening how "flies in the ointment" may make people take the next moderate risk less seriously if it ends up busting.
Yeah, that's the fickle nature of severe weather, and it makes forecasters' jobs very tough
Yeah like no matter what forecasters do it seems they can't do anything right like they're predicting they can't know every single thing that will happen @@ConvectiveChronicles
@@ConvectiveChronicles today was not a bust for Ohio (and there's still some chance of tornadoes to surprise people), but I def think today's results will make people distrust the NWS, even though I think it was reasonable to make hatched areas of risk.
I agree @@zacharybenson6195
@@ConvectiveChronicles another idea would be to add a "question mark hatched" vs. an "exclamation mark hatched" risk area. "Question mark hatch" could be used to indicate high failure mode chance, but also a high ceiling. "Exclamation mark hatched" could be used to indicate the rare conditions where failure modes are unlikely, such as the 1974 or 2011 outbreak scenarios.
So is the fly an unexpected storm's outflow boundary and the ointment a favorable mix of moisture, shear, instability and lift? Would the outflow and gravity waves of the previous storm that helped trigger the Jarrell tornado be considered a fly in the ointment?
A "fly in the ointment" is just anything that may keep a setup from reaching its potential. So the outflow/gravity waves in Jarrell would not be a fly in the ointment; they'd actually be a factor making the environment more likely to reach its potential.
@@ConvectiveChronicles so Jarrell was more ointment in the ointment lol. I like the term never heard it before
Trey! That sucks 😢Go back to bed and rest. I couldn’t fall sleep last night until 3-4am and woke up at 7 to get my daughter ready for school and now I’m working until 7 tonight and I’m dragging 😂thanks for the update ❤
I was able to get a couple-hour nap in and am definitely feeling better...hope you're able to get some rest, as well!
We have a break here in Morehead/West Liberty/Jackson KY
Definitely keep an eye out this afternoon/evening!
Can you please tell me what's going to happen in Johnson City Tennessee because the models you showed didn't look that bad
All hazards on the table
its sunny in columbus and storms are already kicking off in illinois gonna be a big day
Storms firing now isn’t necessarily a good thing…means we might see a bit messier mode and the environment hasn’t really maximized yet
Was always a bit weary of the models that were showing an upper echelon event. So many things have to go right to reach such an outcome and I’m thinking that overnight convection is going to limit the threat for strong tornadoes today.
It seems extremely unlikely the convection will limit it much more than forecasted. It’s already clear across much of the Ohio vicinity and the models are already showing the current outlook with limited instability.
@@IAmTotallyNotGayyy Just because an area is clear of clouds doesn't always mean it will lead to rapid destabilization. In this case, convection south of the risk area has hampered moisture transport. It additionally yielded elevated convection that is further scouring the CAPE across the area. Definitely could still have a tornado or two, but a strong outbreak of long-track tornadoes is not going to happen.
@@evirs professional meteorologists just reported that a major tornado outbreak could start all the way back in Illinois and trail into Ohio because of a large clear slot has formed behind convection and initiated rapid destabilization. All it needs is for the storms to start nowZ
@@IAmTotallyNotGayyy we'll see. I have my doubts.
@@evirs I do too, the environment is primed and all it needs is some isolated cells to start
Does moderate risk include crawford County
It's close enough that I'd keep an eye out
Damn. Always flies in the ointment. I just wanna see some scary tornadoes!
After watching your breakdown, Trey am I tripping or do you sound just a little bit relieved that Southwest Airlines canceled your flight? Just a tiny little bit?
Definitely a little relieved...
I knew it…that probably means I’ve watched too many of your videos now :)
Ruh roh, I am long track stronk enjoyer tonight lol.
Nervous feeling in the air today. Many friends up in Ohio and they’ll all on high alert.
Yeah, it could be one of those days. Good news is that there are some potential failure modes that have crept in to the forecast
do you personally think that columbus ohio would get any tornadoes
It's possible but the greatest threat may be farther south. Still, definitely keep an eye out this evening
1:30 CT time.... HRRR simulated radar looks so messy. Very few discrete cells being forecasted. This might turn out to be a two-day bust.
we can only hope.
Yeah, it's definitely downtrended
@@ConvectiveChronicles Trey, your analysis is always golden. The following you have built is incredible. Don't change a thing. People are now viewing your UA-cam posts as alternative Mesocale Discussions and waiting for updates. Props to you and well-deserved. Cheers my friend.
At a 15% hatched risk for EF2+. 30% chance of 2”+ hail and 30% chance of 74mph gusts
Stay safe
There is substantial clearing in western Ohio.
Sun is currently shining and getting much warmer in southern Ohio.
While that will help bolster instability, continued morning convection has kept moisture return at bay, as dew points are still hanging out in the upper 50s.
Watch ga alabama get all the action
Certainly a robust threat down there tonight
@@ConvectiveChronicles it wont be a moisture issue down here. Whats your failure for southern mode?
waiting for the next video especially cause there will be so many people around those areas for the eclipse
Planning on one tomorrow morning
Hello
If that’s the case Ohio can breathe easy
There still is an all-hazards threat on the table through this evening, so OH is definitely not out of the clear yet.
Yay, I'm in a 10% hatched risk area!! Hey wait a minute...
Be safe!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesstaying in my parents' basement tonight lol
Not a bad call! Some tornado warnings popping off now across AL/GA!@@sabishiihito
@@ConvectiveChroniclestornado missed us by about 3 miles and hit Conyers
Uh oh
Not loving how sunny it's gotten in the Dayton area... with the kinematics likely to be in play when storms initiate this afternoon, the last thing we need is midday heating.
You ever try to get a cat in the basement? It's a pain in the ass (at least the dog will be easy).
The good news is that instability has been sapped by morning storms, and moisture return has continued to be limited thanks to morning convection.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I don't know where to find actual recorded balloon data, I just have the COD models lol... I know the dewpoint is getting back up there, but we are right at the northern terminus of the latest watch, so 🤞
@@VinceWhitacre Here's the SPC page for observed soundings: www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/
It's definitely looking less and less likely that a significant tornado event will occur the farther north you go into central IN/OH.
@@ConvectiveChronicles thanks! Forecast Tools tab, I see... they should make this more user friendly than a university meteorology department lol. Yeah, not much in the way of instability and a wacky this way and that hodo, I'll take it. Hope it holds.
Have a good nap and get charged up!
Got a couple-hour nap in...feeling much better!
Another bust in the southeast... 10% hatched tor and not so much as a thunderstorm here in Georgia lol
The AL/GA portion of the event is far from over; it was always supposed to be an overnight threat, and storms are plentiful over AL with some tornado warnings.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I guess only time will tell, tornado watch expanded eastward but there's been a pretty good amount of crapvection in east AL/far west GA over the last hour or so. In 15 years of living here I've never seen an event persist beyond 01:00 at the very most so will be interesting to see what happens
There's a tornado just east of Atlanta right now. Storms move and can't be everywhere at once, so there weren't thunderstorms in Georgia while tornadoes were touching down in the north, but now as the storms move further northeast, northern Georgia is a dangerous place to be unprepared for severe weather.
@@rheiagreenland4714 For sure, still thinking the hatched risk was a little generous even for the ongoing activity but I admittedly haven't been paying much attention to this event so we'll see how things progress. I think Conyers could have seen a monster had that cell been out there by itself. I think Rockdale had a few injuries. Lots of convective competition and I hope that stifles any serious activity. Atmosphere is ripe for the picking, feels like a jungle out there
too much convection is gonna overload the entire warm sector, not just tennessee and indiana. i think this event will not verify whatsoever
Yeah, the fact that convection is firing now is not a good thing
Of. Course I’m in the red💀
fuck im dead
Well this forecast was a bust lol. The models have really been struggling so far this year to accurately predict outbreaks. Better safe than sorry I suppose, but we didn’t even see an EF3 yesterday.
I wouldn’t say it was a bust, as there was still widespread impactful severe weather, but it certainly did underperform a bit
@@ConvectiveChronicles I think that an enhanced risk zone with 10% hatched tornado probability would’ve been more accurate 👍 just me though. The instability wasn’t that strong
@@eliwilson8242 I agree that the risk probably should've been reevaluated at some point for a potential downgrade, but from a public messaging standpoint, I know SPC likes to keep things fairly consistent throughout the outlook cycle for an event.
@@ConvectiveChronicles makes sense, always better safe than sorry. Appreciate the info and your content always 👍
bye yall
As it turned out this event was crazy for crying out loud there are tornadoes on the ground as im typing this 😲