What's said around 32:19 is super interesting. Of course horizontal vortices are associated with violent tornados, but I always assumed that they were a by-product of them. I assumed that there was just something about violent tornados that caused horizontal vortices. I never thought to ask if horizontal vortices can cause intensification of an ongoing tornado thus making it violent.
"Textbook" analysis, Trey! The horizontal vortex portion was fascinating and made me wish there was as robust data for other violent tornadoes that have exhibited that behavior. Great job sir!
A couple of those 1974 F5s (Tanner 2 and Sayler Park) probably wouldn't have been rated EF5 in 2011 and a few of the 2011 EF4s (Tuscaloosa/Birmingham, Chickasha, Goldsby) probably would've been rated F5 in 1974.
Happy to hear that your channel is growing and that you now have a Patreon. It's well-deserved for all the wonderful, well-researched videos you provide. I wish you all the best in 2024 and you can be sure I'll keep coming back for your meteorological breakdowns! :)
This portion of the outbreak sequence is often overlooked as the Joplin tornado occurred just 2 days prior. Great work as always Trey thanks for everything you do.
Great video as usual Trey. I'd also like to share a cool little story. I live in Belgium and today we had a tornado in my city from a low-topped supercell. I was following its wallcloud from my window as I was positioned just south of the storm and it was amazing to see the dry slot cyclically sliding into the wall cloud producing multiple funnels. The final attempt succeeded in making ground contact and the result was a brief tornado that caused significant damage, I'm guessing EF1 or EF2. I guess I want to thank you, because its because of videos like yours that I could understand what was happening even before I had confirmation that the tornado actually touched down since I couldn't see it making ground contact myself. I later got confirmation from my aunt who lives in the neighbourhood where it touched down, luckily no one got injured. Thank you for these videos, they are very educational.
Great video Trey!!!!! I was 2 or 3 when this outbreak happened but I faintly remember Mom and Dad had the local meteorologist on tv talking about our tornado warned storm but then his attention changed to a separate storm that would soon produce the Etna Arkansas EF-4 and I don't remember much but I still remember it, this outbreak was insane, can't find very many videos on the entire event and can't find very many even talking about the El Reno piedmont EF-4, I have never forgotten about that day even though I don't remember much from it
Trey, thanks as always for another great video. You set the standard for meteorological analysis and breakdowns. You keep making 'em, we'll keep watching 'em!
Dude, I’m hooked on these. I’m fascinated by severe weather as it seems it is attracted to me. I’ve been directly impacted/ hit by tornados about 5 times in my life. I’m absolutely fascinated by storms and I absolutely love these deep dives into them. Thank you!
Fantastic video, Trey! I’ve been waiting for another case study to pass the time during this boring stretch of weather😂 Hopefully we get more classic southern plains set ups soon, we haven’t had a good one in a while!! There’s something so nostalgic and pure chasing big outbreaks in the southern plains for some reason! Again, amazing video!
Nice 1 Trey. Great analysis. Dr Lee Orph used soundings from this day, to generate his amazing computer models. Howie Bluestein was a tornado research legend too. Cheers!
Thank you so much! I had the pleasure of working with Howie Bluestein during my time at OU; he was my thesis advisor, and I got to operate the RaXPol mobile radar with Howie in the passenger seat. Definitely a highlight of my meteorological journey so far!
24:11... something clicked! I was wondering about this... so basically it was like two mini areas of low pressure stacked on top of one another? If one had stayed solo, the rotation would've been too broad and not tightened up.. but having two enhanced the spin.. like the figure skater that draws her arms in closer! Is that right?
Yes; you can think of a tornado as a circuit…if any part of the circuit is displaced/cut off, the tornado is unable to occur/continue. Once the circuit is complete, the tornado can begin…in other words, once the midlevel and low level mesos are aligned, it’s go time. Now, vortex tilt can play a role in this (the mid level and low level mesos might look displaced due to the vortex being tilted).
What's so crazy is that pretty much all the EF5s from 2011 except maybe Joplin produced some of the most outrageous damage ever surveyed. Philadelphia * deepest ground scouring ever done at roughly 2ft. Phil Campbell *tore roofs off of underground concrete shelters * produced what might be the longest continuous swath of EF5 damage in recent memory. *erased woodlands Smithville - *produced some of the most extreme debris granulation since Jarrell while moving at an average speed of 55-60 mph *reduced a brick funeral home to powder instantly *threw a vehicle into the town water tower *scoured the ground up to 1 foot *made a large truck vanish *rent apart a bundle of large steel pipes at their welds and fragmented them. Rainsville - *obliterated a stone home *tore a gun safe that was anchored thru a homes foundation and warped it, made the door vanish. *Destroyed a poured concrete porch and scattered it. *Uprooted the top of an in ground concrete storm shelter. El Reno - probably the most unbelievable tornado DI in modern times, the Cactus 117 oil rig was ripped from its anchoring and bent. It literally weighed 2 million lbs and was fastened down via large industrial anchors that added 200,000 lbs of down force.
There’s a chance it might have been even more violent. The 295mph scan on this tornado was well before it reached peak intensity, there’s no doubt in my mind that the windspeeds were likely above 320mph at peak intensity.
Yeah, that would be an interesting video topic…in the meantime, here’s a journal article on horizontal vortices: mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/atmosphere/atmosphere-10-00716/article_deploy/atmosphere-10-00716-v2.pdf?version=1574333660
Great video as always! Would really like to see you make a video comparing typical Dixie synoptic/mesoscale setups of events that blew up (April 12 2020) to ones that underperformed (April 13 2022/March 17 2021)
Had to come back to this as I didn’t have time to finish it when it dropped. Another merger phenomenon! Not the same as Joplin, El Reno 2013, or Moore 2013, but still telling how much outliers can help things organize to become the most devastating tornadoes in history.
Absolutely! This setup had an abundance of mergers and other storm interactions; if that Piedmont storm had been just 15 miles south, we’d be talking about a Joplin or Moore scenario.
Another amazing analysis!! And finally I have an explanation for that horizontal vortex that sometimes appears in strong tornadoes, one of the best examples for me is the April 27 Tuscaloosa tornado
Really, really great video. I was living in Norman back then, going to OU. Scary day. Two days after Joplin, less then a month after the Super Outbreak; it felt like it was Oklahoma's turn. I also remember seeing a lot of "May 3rd all over again," being thrown around that morning. I went chasing, and was following the Piedmont storm for a while. Never saw the tornado, though. But yeah, really good video.
I remember how during his coverage of the EF-5 tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma for Oklahoma City's NBC affiliate KFOR channel 4 that the station's chief meteorologist Mike Morgan admitted on air that he never wanted to say it but he had no choice but to do so: it was May 3rd, 1999 all over again. With regards to the May 24th, 2011 tornado that struck El Reno, Piedmont and Guthrie, Oklahoma; I think that it would have been beneficial if Mike Morgan had urged residents in the path of the tornado to not let it become a repeat of what had occurred just two days earlier in Joplin, Missouri.
Thank you! Yeah, the OKC metro really dodged a bullet this day; if any of those tornado tracks were just a few miles north or south, it could’ve been a lot worse.
Happy New Year and another great video!! Waited patiently for this one. No one talks about this outbreak too much. For some reason the proximity wind profiles took me back to the 2011 super outbreak video. Now I know why you said those need to be put in a museum. Comparing the two my jaw was on the floor.
Amazing video Trey, really great explanation (as always) and great radar analysis of radar. To me, the outbreak on the 24th is the perfect example that there should be a higher hatched risk as, even though many of the tornadoes that touched down were ef2+, the amount of tornadoes produced was way lower than other 45# days (although a big majority of 45# risks like to underperform significally). That and hatched 5 and 2% tornado risks are things that should be added into convective outlooks.
Hey Trey, another phenomenal breakdown! Could you elaborate on the process behind the formation of “roll” clouds ( 11:12 )? This region of stable air where the roll pattern forms? I’m thinking it’s because of the wind shear in place with a ML present above, allowing some “rolling” condensation to form but both become vertical? Wondering if you could clear this up!
Thank you! You're on the right track; the shear forms the rolls, but they get trapped beneath a stable layer, which also gives them their laminar look. Hence, they're a great clue for stability when looking at satellite.
Incredible analysis, as usual, Trey. I don't understand nearly as much as I'd like, but I'm always picking up so much practical information that I know I'll use on the plains this year.
Thank you! Unfortunately, we don’t have high-res data of this supercell to do a storm-specific breakdown, but I did do a full breakdown of the April 27, 2011, event as a whole here: ua-cam.com/video/8xIJyuLLZ5E/v-deo.htmlsi=3fkz8WknyxK9CRQW
this is one of my favorite outbreaks awesome job!! i have a suggestion you could possibly do. in depth analysis on the day that never was, may 20th 2019. everybody on high alert for imminent disaster and it simply did not perform up to expectations
Really amazing stuff Trey! One question i have is why might the El Reno-Peidmont tornado be classified as one continuous tornado, but the Hesston and Goessel Kansas tornadoes were classified as two seperate F5 tornadoes? As it would seem they went through similar merger scenarios. Thanks for any input or speculation on this.
Thank you! That's a good question; there probably should be an additional tornado along with the El Reno-Piedmont tornado in the archive. It may not have produced any damage before the merger, which might be why it's not in there. The Hesston and Goessel tornadoes were two separate, damaging tornadoes that formed independently of one another. The Hesston tornado was an F5 prior to the merger; it weakened, revolved around the ongoing Goessel tornado, and then merged, forming the new, singular Goessel tornado that also became an F5.
I glanced quickly at the timestamps before the video began and was immediately intrigued. If you're only spending 13 minutes of 44 minutes on the meteorological breakdown portion of a case study, we're in for some super in-depth content and holy cow did we get that! Not much to talk about at the synoptic scale that you haven't talked about time and time again. Strong, negatively tilted trough, diffluence aloft, powerful low-level cyclone via lee cyclogenesis, strong warm, moist advection into the target region, ridiculously stout EML atop a deep moist layer, 3k MLCAPE and large looping hodographs, all in Oklahoma? I've heard it all before, and I know a lot of fans of the channel have, and I'm sure you're almost tired of repeating that string of terms at this point! But then to dig into such incredibly specific mesoscale factors with probably the widest wealth of thorough high resolution radar data in any of your case studies to date is so wonderful. I honestly can't even recall how many new things I learned from this video, it was 30 minutes straight of learning new things. I absolutely adore seeing the mobile radar data as digging into these finer details is so vital for understanding individual tornadoes, and I long for the day we have a wide enough network of these things that we can use them predictively as tornadoes are ongoing to help understand the danger more precisely instead of only really being able to use them after the fact. I can't say enough good things about how wonderful this video was, absolutely fantastic video Trey and I always get excited when I see a new case study. Can't wait for more!
Thank you so much! Yeah, this was such a classic tornado outbreak setup; there wasn’t a ton to say about it other than that it was pretty perfect from a synoptic/mesoscale standpoint. The real analysis came with the treasure trove of unique behaviors documented in the mobile radar data.
Whoaaaaa I just watched this video and really liked it. When I subscribed to your channel and checked to see if you have other videos I cannot believe how lucky I am to come across it. 10/10
Great video with lots of good information. What websites do you use to find all of this archived data? I use the SPC mesoanalysis page, but I know there has to be more.
Thank you! Along with the SPC Mesoanalysis Archive page, I use a few others: UCAR Image Archive: www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/ Plymouth State Weather Center: vortex.plymouth.edu/ SHARPpy desktop app for model soundings: sharp.weather.ou.edu/dev/ NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit for old radar data: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wct/
Wow, Northern Indiana resident here. Earlier I was thinking w/El Nino in place, Indiana would probably have a fairly quiet tornado season. But first a local tv station, and now you, both are thinking just the opposite!
Awesome Case Study as always Trey, I love this series..... This El Reno - Piedmont EF5 Tornado was really scary beast....I dunno why but that Dave Demko footage "Angry Octopus Tornado" when you can see few horizontal vortecies orbiting around tornado right above ground stil gives me chills😰 Maybe you could do some study of something outside USA? Like EF/F4 Tornado in Hodonin Czech Republik 2021, or big Tornado Outbreak in Poland 15 August 2008 or other more known tornados/events outside US ...that could be great to see differences what makes some violent tornadoes and occur in very different kinematic setups (and different air masses,troughs,fronts interaction) and why they can occur in totally different climate. I know that this could be difficult because there is much harder to find all the meteo and radar data but it could be nice to see your study :) Anyway it's only sugestion. Cheers and keep up great monumental and very important work💪
Thank you so much for the kind words! I agree; Dave Demko’s octopus footage is some of my favorite of all time. Absolutely epic stuff. I would love to do some international case studies, but you hit the nail on the head…it’s extremely difficult to find archived data for those events like we have in the US. If you know of any sites that have this stuff, I’m all ears! I will continue to dig around for some of that data; I’d love to do some non-USA stuff eventually.
something i did think of yesterday would maybe some an overview of info on spc risk days, like most populated moderate/high risk, or largest mod/high risk, can do the same for least populated/smallest area
Only a matter of time before something like this happens again. We got lucky that day that it wasn’t any further south had it been OKC would have been hit very very bad. Which would have been crazy because it would be back to back with Joplin
Joplin definitely got more media attention because it went right through the heart of the city. 15 miles south and the El Reno tornado would’ve been much more devastating, as OKC would’ve been right in the path.
Coming back to this case primarily because I think it has a lot of important lessons to portray about many of the southern plains ejections over the past few years (including the ones this year) the trough responsible for this outbreak remained very zonal ejecting in, with a powerful belt of flow on it’s backside (oriented still very zonally though) helping to kick it into a negative tilt orientation The ejections over the past few years that have looked like classic Oklahoma outbreaks and ended up underperforming (5/20/19, 5/18/17, etc) appear to have been far more closed upon ejecting in, with lots of meridional flow in their exit regions, preventing them from really ejecting into the southern plains causing large tornado outbreaks Interested to see what the upcoming ejection does, as it appears that the way it’s ejecting in has been trending a bit more favorable for truly punching into the southern plains
Wow, the SPC nailed their forecast for this event. Looking at the outlook compared to the reports is a real nod to the technology and meteorologists who saw this coming days before.
the Infamous 2011 the devastating year that never would be e forgotten and always be remembered plus according to the models there could potentially be pretty robust storm system for next week that could potentially bring some rough weather for late this weekend and especially early next week? stay safe and have a blessed New Year 😇😇😇🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿🎊🎊🎊🎉🎉🎉
Happy new year to you, as well! Yes, there does appear to be a potent storm system on its way with a snow threat for the central plains and Midwest and a possible severe threat for the Gulf Coast states.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah I know and Tuesday looks pretty interesting as well in the severe weather department for the Southeast according to the models? even though the SPC/NWS doesn't have a 15% severe weather risk for Tuesday as of yet so when do you think the SPC/NWS would issue an 15% severe weather risk for Tuesday???
@@aprilbrooks1026Right now, there's not enough model consistency to put in a risk area...if we start seeing some more agreement in a severe threat for Tuesday, they'll put one in.
I have to say, as bad as this was, it could have been worse if the updrafts weren't so close together resulting in storm mergers that disrupted on going tornadoes in most cases.
Wow side note but 2:19 I didn't know there was that clustering around dfw that day?! Until recently I didn't know there was an outbreak at all that day lol Edit: actually now i do remember it now that i look at the confirmed tornadoes. I remember now cuz there was a tornado in irving which is where my dad works and i remember being so scared
I have say with as good as you are when it comes to explaining how everything works you could put on a class that lasts all day and it would be awesome you put so much detail into these shorter videos I could only imagine how much one can learn if you put on a class.
@@ConvectiveChronicles please do you should be teaching a full on course with as must as you put into just these short videos and how interactive you are with us, you literally take the time to answer most of if not all questions which shows you actually care and want others to be informed and not in the dark when it comes to these kind of event. I firmly believe if we can give everyone or atleast the vast majority of people the right information to where most can understand what's happening before and most importantly during an event more and more lives will be saved. People like you that actually take the time to show people that really have no clue where to start and you take the time to explain in detail on the how to do or how to understand goes leaps and bounds. You also make a point to make the most beginners not feel like idiots and you take the time to guide them through the hole process to where they get the idea of how to understand what I going on. Even if it is a minor level they still have more knowledge then they had before which will and I bet has saved lives. Atthe end if the day that is all that matters. Please don't stop what you do. I'm not a novice when it comes to this but I learn something new from you every time I watch your videos. I'd glad site through a day long or even class to learn everything I can from you. I'm still looking forward to your break down of the Andover F5 for that was my first ever Tornado. And had me hooked the day before I turned 9 yes old. Love your stuff and never stop what you do
@@travisrock1640 Thank you so much for the kind words; that really means a lot...I always try to answer every comment or question, as I believe that's a super important part of learning anything, including the tricky science of meteorology. I always struggled asking my professors questions when I was in college, and I regret not asking more, so I try to be as available as possible to answer questions for my viewers. And don't worry; an Andover is one of my next case studies to do!
2010 was such a strange year.......early 2011 also (at least for snow) . in montana.... we ended up getting 164 inches of snow. (mostly in EARLY 2011) i wonder if the snow/moisture we got influenced these FAMOUS storms of 2011 . we had no snow all year..... then a BUTT TON in early 2011.... till about march then we got a years worth of rain in 2 weeks (which melted all the snow) which lead to record flooding . record snow, record rain, record flooding (specifically around the glasgow MT area) just a CRAZY year . . . but ya.... im pretty sure that our snow / moisture influenced these tornadoes but i cant prove it.... because im not a meteorologist . i just noticed a pattern (glasgow gets some rain/snow..... the southern states get a tornado..... over and over and over, and with out fail) with THAT MUCH water on the ground..... it simply HAD TO influence pressure systems that then moved south/east
Rather than the rain/snow itself influencing the systems as they moved east/southeast into the Plains, the storm track probably allowed storm systems to influence y’all in MT and then dig down into the southern states.
“Otherwise this video would be hours long” don’t threaten me with a good time
Touche😂
😂
I said the same thing when he said this lol. I would love a 2 hour deep dive on tornado outbreaks.
😂
Agreed
What's said around 32:19 is super interesting. Of course horizontal vortices are associated with violent tornados, but I always assumed that they were a by-product of them. I assumed that there was just something about violent tornados that caused horizontal vortices. I never thought to ask if horizontal vortices can cause intensification of an ongoing tornado thus making it violent.
"Textbook" analysis, Trey! The horizontal vortex portion was fascinating and made me wish there was as robust data for other violent tornadoes that have exhibited that behavior. Great job sir!
Thank you!! I agree; to have the radar data to go along with the actual video of the horizontal vortex is pretty awesome.
I know 1974 had one more F5/EF-5 than 2011 did, but 2011 had them on more occasions. Really was a crazy year for tornadoes.
Even had a tornado here in Massachusetts June 1st, 2011
A couple of those 1974 F5s (Tanner 2 and Sayler Park) probably wouldn't have been rated EF5 in 2011 and a few of the 2011 EF4s (Tuscaloosa/Birmingham, Chickasha, Goldsby) probably would've been rated F5 in 1974.
@@harryparsons2750 affirmative I even drove through Monson after it
Happy to hear that your channel is growing and that you now have a Patreon. It's well-deserved for all the wonderful, well-researched videos you provide. I wish you all the best in 2024 and you can be sure I'll keep coming back for your meteorological breakdowns! :)
Thank you so much for the kind words!
This portion of the outbreak sequence is often overlooked as the Joplin tornado occurred just 2 days prior. Great work as always Trey thanks for everything you do.
Thank you so much!
Great video as usual Trey.
I'd also like to share a cool little story. I live in Belgium and today we had a tornado in my city from a low-topped supercell. I was following its wallcloud from my window as I was positioned just south of the storm and it was amazing to see the dry slot cyclically sliding into the wall cloud producing multiple funnels. The final attempt succeeded in making ground contact and the result was a brief tornado that caused significant damage, I'm guessing EF1 or EF2. I guess I want to thank you, because its because of videos like yours that I could understand what was happening even before I had confirmation that the tornado actually touched down since I couldn't see it making ground contact myself. I later got confirmation from my aunt who lives in the neighbourhood where it touched down, luckily no one got injured. Thank you for these videos, they are very educational.
Thank you! I’m happy to hear the videos have been helpful for you! Congrats on catching a tornado; it sounds like it was a pretty cool storm.
Great video Trey!!!!! I was 2 or 3 when this outbreak happened but I faintly remember Mom and Dad had the local meteorologist on tv talking about our tornado warned storm but then his attention changed to a separate storm that would soon produce the Etna Arkansas EF-4 and I don't remember much but I still remember it, this outbreak was insane, can't find very many videos on the entire event and can't find very many even talking about the El Reno piedmont EF-4, I have never forgotten about that day even though I don't remember much from it
Thank you so much! It certainly was a crazy day
Yeah it was crazy, it was a classic great plains set up@@ConvectiveChronicles
Been waiting on this one for a long time. Very excited!
holy cow i had no idea the CASA data even existed... one of your best yet trey, phenomenal job!!!
Thank you so much!
Trey, thanks as always for another great video. You set the standard for meteorological analysis and breakdowns. You keep making 'em, we'll keep watching 'em!
I really appreciate that; thank you so much!
28:50 That's nothing short of incredible that the inflow jets could be resolved on radar.
Dude, I’m hooked on these. I’m fascinated by severe weather as it seems it is attracted to me. I’ve been directly impacted/ hit by tornados about 5 times in my life. I’m absolutely fascinated by storms and I absolutely love these deep dives into them. Thank you!
Thank you so much!
Early for this masterpiece!
Let's go! I was really hoping you would make a case study about this day! Thanks for the great video!
Fantastic video, Trey! I’ve been waiting for another case study to pass the time during this boring stretch of weather😂
Hopefully we get more classic southern plains set ups soon, we haven’t had a good one in a while!! There’s something so nostalgic and pure chasing big outbreaks in the southern plains for some reason! Again, amazing video!
Been waiting all day for this, props my man
Nice 1 Trey. Great analysis. Dr Lee Orph used soundings from this day, to generate his amazing computer models. Howie Bluestein was a tornado research legend too. Cheers!
Thank you so much! I had the pleasure of working with Howie Bluestein during my time at OU; he was my thesis advisor, and I got to operate the RaXPol mobile radar with Howie in the passenger seat. Definitely a highlight of my meteorological journey so far!
@@ConvectiveChronicles NO wonder you are so knowledgeable on Tornado science. Cheers Trey.
24:11... something clicked! I was wondering about this... so basically it was like two mini areas of low pressure stacked on top of one another? If one had stayed solo, the rotation would've been too broad and not tightened up.. but having two enhanced the spin.. like the figure skater that draws her arms in closer! Is that right?
Yes; you can think of a tornado as a circuit…if any part of the circuit is displaced/cut off, the tornado is unable to occur/continue. Once the circuit is complete, the tornado can begin…in other words, once the midlevel and low level mesos are aligned, it’s go time. Now, vortex tilt can play a role in this (the mid level and low level mesos might look displaced due to the vortex being tilted).
I'm fully convinced the EF5 from this day was and remains the strongest tornado since May 3 1999.
What's so crazy is that pretty much all the EF5s from 2011 except maybe Joplin produced some of the most outrageous damage ever surveyed.
Philadelphia
* deepest ground scouring ever done at roughly 2ft.
Phil Campbell
*tore roofs off of underground concrete shelters
* produced what might be the longest continuous swath of EF5 damage in recent memory.
*erased woodlands
Smithville -
*produced some of the most extreme debris granulation since Jarrell while moving at an average speed of 55-60 mph
*reduced a brick funeral home to powder instantly
*threw a vehicle into the town water tower
*scoured the ground up to 1 foot
*made a large truck vanish
*rent apart a bundle of large steel pipes at their welds and fragmented them.
Rainsville -
*obliterated a stone home
*tore a gun safe that was anchored thru a homes foundation and warped it, made the door vanish.
*Destroyed a poured concrete porch and scattered it.
*Uprooted the top of an in ground concrete storm shelter.
El Reno - probably the most unbelievable tornado DI in modern times, the Cactus 117 oil rig was ripped from its anchoring and bent. It literally weighed 2 million lbs and was fastened down via large industrial anchors that added 200,000 lbs of down force.
There’s a chance it might have been even more violent. The 295mph scan on this tornado was well before it reached peak intensity, there’s no doubt in my mind that the windspeeds were likely above 320mph at peak intensity.
Can you go more in depth on horizontal vortices? They've always been an interest for me.
Yeah, that would be an interesting video topic…in the meantime, here’s a journal article on horizontal vortices: mdpi-res.com/d_attachment/atmosphere/atmosphere-10-00716/article_deploy/atmosphere-10-00716-v2.pdf?version=1574333660
@@ConvectiveChronicles Amazing! Thanks.
Once again, you knocked it outta the park. Great work man. Already cant wait for the next case study
Thank you so much!
Great video as always! Would really like to see you make a video comparing typical Dixie synoptic/mesoscale setups of events that blew up (April 12 2020) to ones that underperformed (April 13 2022/March 17 2021)
Thank you! That’s an interesting video idea; I’ll add it to the list.
Had to come back to this as I didn’t have time to finish it when it dropped. Another merger phenomenon! Not the same as Joplin, El Reno 2013, or Moore 2013, but still telling how much outliers can help things organize to become the most devastating tornadoes in history.
Absolutely! This setup had an abundance of mergers and other storm interactions; if that Piedmont storm had been just 15 miles south, we’d be talking about a Joplin or Moore scenario.
Another amazing analysis!! And finally I have an explanation for that horizontal vortex that sometimes appears in strong tornadoes, one of the best examples for me is the April 27 Tuscaloosa tornado
Thank you! Yeah, horizontal vortices are often a staple of violent tornadoes like this one and Tuscaloosa.
Really, really great video. I was living in Norman back then, going to OU. Scary day. Two days after Joplin, less then a month after the Super Outbreak; it felt like it was Oklahoma's turn. I also remember seeing a lot of "May 3rd all over again," being thrown around that morning. I went chasing, and was following the Piedmont storm for a while. Never saw the tornado, though.
But yeah, really good video.
I remember how during his coverage of the EF-5 tornado that struck Moore, Oklahoma for Oklahoma City's NBC affiliate KFOR channel 4 that the station's chief meteorologist Mike Morgan admitted on air that he never wanted to say it but he had no choice but to do so: it was May 3rd, 1999 all over again. With regards to the May 24th, 2011 tornado that struck El Reno, Piedmont and Guthrie, Oklahoma; I think that it would have been beneficial if Mike Morgan had urged residents in the path of the tornado to not let it become a repeat of what had occurred just two days earlier in Joplin, Missouri.
Thank you! Yeah, the OKC metro really dodged a bullet this day; if any of those tornado tracks were just a few miles north or south, it could’ve been a lot worse.
Crazy tornado day from a crazy tornado year. Thanks Trey!
Dang I think I was here at like 3 or 4k subscribers. Congrats on the channel growth!
Thank you!!
Happy New Year and another great video!! Waited patiently for this one. No one talks about this outbreak too much.
For some reason the proximity wind profiles took me back to the 2011 super outbreak video. Now I know why you said those need to be put in a museum. Comparing the two my jaw was on the floor.
Thank you; happy new year to you, too! Yeah, this setup was about as classic as it gets.
hey this video has had an amazing start keep up your amazing work dude
Thank you!
Amazing video Trey, really great explanation (as always) and great radar analysis of radar. To me, the outbreak on the 24th is the perfect example that there should be a higher hatched risk as, even though many of the tornadoes that touched down were ef2+, the amount of tornadoes produced was way lower than other 45# days (although a big majority of 45# risks like to underperform significally). That and hatched 5 and 2% tornado risks are things that should be added into convective outlooks.
Thank you so much! They do have a 60% hatched contour available, but to my knowledge, they’ve only used it one time, and it relatively underperformed.
Hey Trey, another phenomenal breakdown! Could you elaborate on the process behind the formation of “roll” clouds ( 11:12 )? This region of stable air where the roll pattern forms? I’m thinking it’s because of the wind shear in place with a ML present above, allowing some “rolling” condensation to form but both become vertical? Wondering if you could clear this up!
Thank you! You're on the right track; the shear forms the rolls, but they get trapped beneath a stable layer, which also gives them their laminar look. Hence, they're a great clue for stability when looking at satellite.
Incredible analysis, as usual, Trey. I don't understand nearly as much as I'd like, but I'm always picking up so much practical information that I know I'll use on the plains this year.
Thanks so much, Lori!
Great case study production here and thanks for the integration of the many field study publications on this event.
Thank you so much!
Great as always! Could you do an analysis of the ef5 rainsville 2011 tornado and the parent storm?
Thank you! Unfortunately, we don’t have high-res data of this supercell to do a storm-specific breakdown, but I did do a full breakdown of the April 27, 2011, event as a whole here: ua-cam.com/video/8xIJyuLLZ5E/v-deo.htmlsi=3fkz8WknyxK9CRQW
this is one of my favorite outbreaks awesome job!! i have a suggestion you could possibly do. in depth analysis on the day that never was, may 20th 2019. everybody on high alert for imminent disaster and it simply did not perform up to expectations
Thank you! I’ve actually already done a full breakdown of the 5-20-19 event here: ua-cam.com/video/eL6wX5KqC1k/v-deo.html
how did i miss this!? Thank you!
Phenomenal analysis on this historic day. Great work!
Thank you!
Phenomenal work as always
Thank you!
Really amazing stuff Trey!
One question i have is why might the El Reno-Peidmont tornado be classified as one continuous tornado, but the Hesston and Goessel Kansas tornadoes were classified as two seperate F5 tornadoes? As it would seem they went through similar merger scenarios.
Thanks for any input or speculation on this.
Thank you! That's a good question; there probably should be an additional tornado along with the El Reno-Piedmont tornado in the archive. It may not have produced any damage before the merger, which might be why it's not in there. The Hesston and Goessel tornadoes were two separate, damaging tornadoes that formed independently of one another. The Hesston tornado was an F5 prior to the merger; it weakened, revolved around the ongoing Goessel tornado, and then merged, forming the new, singular Goessel tornado that also became an F5.
I glanced quickly at the timestamps before the video began and was immediately intrigued. If you're only spending 13 minutes of 44 minutes on the meteorological breakdown portion of a case study, we're in for some super in-depth content and holy cow did we get that! Not much to talk about at the synoptic scale that you haven't talked about time and time again. Strong, negatively tilted trough, diffluence aloft, powerful low-level cyclone via lee cyclogenesis, strong warm, moist advection into the target region, ridiculously stout EML atop a deep moist layer, 3k MLCAPE and large looping hodographs, all in Oklahoma? I've heard it all before, and I know a lot of fans of the channel have, and I'm sure you're almost tired of repeating that string of terms at this point!
But then to dig into such incredibly specific mesoscale factors with probably the widest wealth of thorough high resolution radar data in any of your case studies to date is so wonderful. I honestly can't even recall how many new things I learned from this video, it was 30 minutes straight of learning new things. I absolutely adore seeing the mobile radar data as digging into these finer details is so vital for understanding individual tornadoes, and I long for the day we have a wide enough network of these things that we can use them predictively as tornadoes are ongoing to help understand the danger more precisely instead of only really being able to use them after the fact.
I can't say enough good things about how wonderful this video was, absolutely fantastic video Trey and I always get excited when I see a new case study. Can't wait for more!
Thank you so much! Yeah, this was such a classic tornado outbreak setup; there wasn’t a ton to say about it other than that it was pretty perfect from a synoptic/mesoscale standpoint. The real analysis came with the treasure trove of unique behaviors documented in the mobile radar data.
Whoaaaaa I just watched this video and really liked it. When I subscribed to your channel and checked to see if you have other videos I cannot believe how lucky I am to come across it. 10/10
Thank you so much; glad you enjoyed it! Welcome to the channel; lots more of these kinds of case studies to come!
Great video with lots of good information. What websites do you use to find all of this archived data? I use the SPC mesoanalysis page, but I know there has to be more.
Thank you! Along with the SPC Mesoanalysis Archive page, I use a few others:
UCAR Image Archive: www2.mmm.ucar.edu/imagearchive/
Plymouth State Weather Center: vortex.plymouth.edu/
SHARPpy desktop app for model soundings: sharp.weather.ou.edu/dev/
NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit for old radar data: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wct/
Omg you and Pecos Hank would be such good friends haha!
Awesome breakdown of this event. I learned some very fascinating things.
Thank you!
Wow, Northern Indiana resident here. Earlier I was thinking w/El Nino in place, Indiana would probably have a fairly quiet tornado season. But first a local tv station, and now you, both are thinking just the opposite!
Wow i wish that we had these high res radars like this everywhere!! Sooo fascinating
Love your videos Trey. Learning so incredibly much from your videos.
Happy to hear that; thank you!
Awesome Case Study as always Trey, I love this series..... This El Reno - Piedmont EF5 Tornado was really scary beast....I dunno why but that Dave Demko footage "Angry Octopus Tornado" when you can see few horizontal vortecies orbiting around tornado right above ground stil gives me chills😰
Maybe you could do some study of something outside USA? Like EF/F4 Tornado in Hodonin Czech Republik 2021, or big Tornado Outbreak in Poland 15 August 2008 or other more known tornados/events outside US ...that could be great to see differences what makes some violent tornadoes and occur in very different kinematic setups (and different air masses,troughs,fronts interaction) and why they can occur in totally different climate. I know that this could be difficult because there is much harder to find all the meteo and radar data but it could be nice to see your study :) Anyway it's only sugestion. Cheers and keep up great monumental and very important work💪
Thank you so much for the kind words! I agree; Dave Demko’s octopus footage is some of my favorite of all time. Absolutely epic stuff.
I would love to do some international case studies, but you hit the nail on the head…it’s extremely difficult to find archived data for those events like we have in the US. If you know of any sites that have this stuff, I’m all ears! I will continue to dig around for some of that data; I’d love to do some non-USA stuff eventually.
something i did think of yesterday would maybe some an overview of info on spc risk days, like most populated moderate/high risk, or largest mod/high risk, can do the same for least populated/smallest area
Interesting idea
Where do you find the military maps? I'd like to look at them...
Military maps?
@@ConvectiveChronicles millibar, sorry
I got these from Tornado Archive, but for more recent events, you can find them in the SPC Mesoanalysis archive.
Great learning as always man. Thanks for doing these.
Thank you!!
2011 has to be the worst year for tornadoes
Yeah crazy when things perfectly line up in May especially in Oklahoma
Only a matter of time before something like this happens again. We got lucky that day that it wasn’t any further south had it been OKC would have been hit very very bad. Which would have been crazy because it would be back to back with Joplin
The EF5 that hit near El Reno to Guthrie was overtaken by the EF5 tornado that hit Joplin.
Joplin definitely got more media attention because it went right through the heart of the city. 15 miles south and the El Reno tornado would’ve been much more devastating, as OKC would’ve been right in the path.
“Convective Chronicles just dropped a new case study I can’t go out to eat with your family anymore”…works everytime everybody 😉
Coming back to this case primarily because I think it has a lot of important lessons to portray about many of the southern plains ejections over the past few years (including the ones this year) the trough responsible for this outbreak remained very zonal ejecting in, with a powerful belt of flow on it’s backside (oriented still very zonally though) helping to kick it into a negative tilt orientation
The ejections over the past few years that have looked like classic Oklahoma outbreaks and ended up underperforming (5/20/19, 5/18/17, etc) appear to have been far more closed upon ejecting in, with lots of meridional flow in their exit regions, preventing them from really ejecting into the southern plains causing large tornado outbreaks
Interested to see what the upcoming ejection does, as it appears that the way it’s ejecting in has been trending a bit more favorable for truly punching into the southern plains
That’s a really interesting observation, thanks for sharing that
super well made video!
Thank you!
Wow, the SPC nailed their forecast for this event. Looking at the outlook compared to the reports is a real nod to the technology and meteorologists who saw this coming days before.
the Infamous 2011 the devastating year that never would be e forgotten and always be remembered
plus according to the models there could potentially be pretty robust storm system for next week that could potentially bring some rough weather for late this weekend and especially early next week?
stay safe and have a blessed New Year 😇😇😇🙏🏿🙏🏿🙏🏿🎊🎊🎊🎉🎉🎉
Happy new year to you, as well! Yes, there does appear to be a potent storm system on its way with a snow threat for the central plains and Midwest and a possible severe threat for the Gulf Coast states.
@@ConvectiveChronicles yeah I know and Tuesday looks pretty interesting as well in the severe weather department for the Southeast according to the models?
even though the SPC/NWS doesn't have a 15% severe weather risk for Tuesday as of yet
so when do you think the SPC/NWS would issue an 15% severe weather risk for Tuesday???
@@aprilbrooks1026Right now, there's not enough model consistency to put in a risk area...if we start seeing some more agreement in a severe threat for Tuesday, they'll put one in.
2011 was insane
That was a robust case study! Thank you!
Thank you for watching!
2011 was different, I feel like the strongest tornado of 2023 was the norm during that spring
Yeah, this day was almost “just another day” in 2011, whereas it would be far and away the day of the year in most other years.
Sean Casey, Reed timmer and the twistex crew was all on this storm when it aired on storm chasers show...😎
Hooray, it's here!
I have to say, as bad as this was, it could have been worse if the updrafts weren't so close together resulting in storm mergers that disrupted on going tornadoes in most cases.
Wow side note but 2:19 I didn't know there was that clustering around dfw that day?! Until recently I didn't know there was an outbreak at all that day lol
Edit: actually now i do remember it now that i look at the confirmed tornadoes. I remember now cuz there was a tornado in irving which is where my dad works and i remember being so scared
Yeah, the tornadoes weren’t as intense in north Texas, but there were quite a few.
I have say with as good as you are when it comes to explaining how everything works you could put on a class that lasts all day and it would be awesome you put so much detail into these shorter videos I could only imagine how much one can learn if you put on a class.
Thank you; I’ve thought about doing some type of class or even a full course. Perhaps some day down the line
@@ConvectiveChronicles please do you should be teaching a full on course with as must as you put into just these short videos and how interactive you are with us, you literally take the time to answer most of if not all questions which shows you actually care and want others to be informed and not in the dark when it comes to these kind of event. I firmly believe if we can give everyone or atleast the vast majority of people the right information to where most can understand what's happening before and most importantly during an event more and more lives will be saved. People like you that actually take the time to show people that really have no clue where to start and you take the time to explain in detail on the how to do or how to understand goes leaps and bounds. You also make a point to make the most beginners not feel like idiots and you take the time to guide them through the hole process to where they get the idea of how to understand what I going on. Even if it is a minor level they still have more knowledge then they had before which will and I bet has saved lives. Atthe end if the day that is all that matters. Please don't stop what you do. I'm not a novice when it comes to this but I learn something new from you every time I watch your videos. I'd glad site through a day long or even class to learn everything I can from you. I'm still looking forward to your break down of the Andover F5 for that was my first ever Tornado. And had me hooked the day before I turned 9 yes old. Love your stuff and never stop what you do
@@travisrock1640 Thank you so much for the kind words; that really means a lot...I always try to answer every comment or question, as I believe that's a super important part of learning anything, including the tricky science of meteorology. I always struggled asking my professors questions when I was in college, and I regret not asking more, so I try to be as available as possible to answer questions for my viewers. And don't worry; an Andover is one of my next case studies to do!
you are a genius my man
Using Hank's videos I see.... 👀
He had the best vantage point of the horizontal vortex
2010 was such a strange year.......early 2011 also (at least for snow)
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in montana.... we ended up getting 164 inches of snow. (mostly in EARLY 2011)
i wonder if the snow/moisture we got influenced these FAMOUS storms of 2011
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we had no snow all year..... then a BUTT TON in early 2011.... till about march
then we got a years worth of rain in 2 weeks (which melted all the snow)
which lead to record flooding
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record snow, record rain, record flooding (specifically around the glasgow MT area)
just a CRAZY year
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.
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but ya.... im pretty sure that our snow / moisture influenced these tornadoes
but i cant prove it.... because im not a meteorologist
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i just noticed a pattern (glasgow gets some rain/snow..... the southern states get a tornado..... over and over and over, and with out fail)
with THAT MUCH water on the ground..... it simply HAD TO influence pressure systems that then moved south/east
Rather than the rain/snow itself influencing the systems as they moved east/southeast into the Plains, the storm track probably allowed storm systems to influence y’all in MT and then dig down into the southern states.
Those RaXpol technicians must have had to change their pants after that encounter.
Man if only this video was hours long...
😢😢😢😢😢
You have to be from Oklahoma to be able to pronounce the town names correctly.
🔥
We're off the to see the wizard
Note to self, never live in El Reno Oklahoma.