Forecast Update - April 11, 2024 - Bimodal Severe Threat from the Midwest to the Southeast
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- Опубліковано 10 кві 2024
- For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.
A bimodal severe weather setup is on tap from the Midwest to the Southeast today, ending our multi-day severe weather sequence that began earlier this week. The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) centered on eastern Ohio, where a mix of supercells and line segments are possible today in a weakly destabilized but moderately sheared environment. A second risk area exists across northern Florida, where an ongoing line of storms from yesterday will produce a low-end wind/tornado threat through the early afternoon. A low-end tornado/wind risk exists in between these two areas, from Virginia to the Carolinas, where strong low-level shear but limited instability should overlap.
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Thanks for taking the time to get this video out!
Man this entire sequence has been so weird. And honestly almost every single tornado risk thus far in 2024 has underperformed. I know you're super busy getting into chasing and tour season, but it'd be awesome to have a video on why this multi-day system underperformed with tornadoes. It seems like we keep getting less-than-ideal storm mode and tons of clouds and showers sapping instability this year.
I am sure the models will calm down, they always do, but Monday definitely looks like the first negative tilt over the Plains we've had in quite some time. Diffluence aloft, jet streak over the target area, strong lee cyclogenesis, all that. Long ways to go, but I know darn well that you'll have a video or two out for us on the event as we get closer.
Good luck and stay safe out there on the chasing scene this season, Trey!
I agree!! And then events that shouldn’t have performed, did! Think about March 14 2024 which was barely a SLGT risk in Ohio, then boom they get a mini-outbreak. Strange year
Thank you! Honestly, I think the Monday and Tuesday underperformances came down to storms forming north of the pertinent boundaries (warm front Monday, outflow boundary Tuesday). That allowed them to remain elevated with mostly a large hail risk. Storm mode played a role with the lack of anything notable in the open warm sector/warm front regime. Yesterday, there was just a ton of forcing for a ton of storms…that storm mode got messy quickly.
Great work Trey! Today’s event really has my attention for a couple reasons. One, I’m in North Carolina within the MRGL risk, and secondly, I’m not sure if the ENH will perform. I feel like all the cloud cover / low-topped convection currently ongoing will mitigate the threat later on… but I think the Mid-Atlantic has potential. Recent HRRR guidance has shown lots of discrete storm activity by the afternoon with rich low level moisture, good shear, and CAPE values around 2,000. Plus, I even got some PDS TOR soundings around Monroe NC (SE of Charlotte). I’m not done watching the video yet so I’m not sure if you mentioned this, but let me know your thoughts. Thank you!
Thank you! Yeah, the Ohio threat looks pretty limited to me; wouldn't be surprised to see a downgrade there in subsequent outlooks. I do think there is some potential from VA to the Carolinas given a strong low-level jet over the region. All depends on how much destabilization occurs through the afternoon; I think you'll get enough for some tornado/wind risk.
@@ConvectiveChronicles I completely agree. Thanks for your reply!
@@WeatherWatcher14I brought up the same thing. If that plays out, it could be a rough ride for us Carolinians.
@@chriscampbell6453 Indeed
Yea it's sketchy for today it doesn't help that no one cares about our area too they think nothing well happen I hope they are right because I don't mind a good thunderstorm it's the other stuff that comes with it
Thank you, Trey! Pretty nasty morning/mid-morning here in the Tampa Bay area. Had a waterspout spotted by our regional NWS north of my area that was moving onshore (?) as well as an overturned semi (Tampa) and a potential tornado touchdown on the east coast (St. Augustine). Take care and thank you for all you do!
Thanks, Tal! Yeah, it looks like things got pretty nasty out there. That was a pretty potent line!
I REALLY appreciate you taking the time to do these videos. You are my go to!
Thank you!!
Today hasn’t downtrended as much as it’s just shifted it seems
The Carolina’s behind the morning round of convection should destabilize very nicely it seems with a typical potent mini supercell risk there. Extreme shear and moderate CAPE, but somewhat limiting mid level lapse rates should be present
dry slot also will cause a potential slight issue with a 700mbar warm nose
Thanks for commenting on this. I came to this channel to find more concrete information about this severe weather event, and I’m pleased to see all the attention being given to this “Sleeper” tornado risk. I’m personally in the NC Piedmont so I’m definitely intrigued.
A bit of a messy set up that is for sure. But, like the other set ups around the Ohio Valley so far the last month, the surface low is going to have to do a lot of the shoulder work on this one.
Instability may be the main issue today but we will see how much stirs up.
As for the chase trip, good timing on your trip to start. Especially, well....Monday [no shit xD] and Tuesday if you guys are gonna haul it out that far next day. Looking like a very very active Spring for you and the group. Good for business of the tour and also keeping you buamsy.
Not much severe in the FL panhandle last night but we did get 11 inches of rain since the line slowed to a crawl and sat on top of us.
Dang!
Great video Trey 😁 Always appreciate your videos keep up the good work and also because there weren't very many tornados yesterday people are calling it a "Dud" when the wind part of the moderate did really well
Thank you! I totally agree
I feel like they might upgrade my part of upstate SC and the NC piedmont to maybe a 5% Tor. After not getting as much morning convection as originally anticipated, the hrrr is really raising our cape levels. What’s your thoughts on that?
Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they bumped the risk up there
This is exactly what I’m thinking. I’m near Charlotte NC and I’ve been seeing this trend since yesterday. Should be interesting!
@@ConvectiveChroniclesThe 12, 13, and 14z are also showing some discreet cells in the vicinity of the Charlotte area near me, so I’ll definitely be watching it.
I feel like northeast Ohio won’t get any severe storms. Do you agree, or do you still think there’s room for things to get going?
Best threat is farther south
I've been keeping up with that OH/WV/KY area of enhanced risk all day since I seen the outlook. My kids live right outside of Huntington, WV, northeast of that area between Point Pleasant and Huntington. I know that it looks like we may get a slight break for a few days here in my neck of the woods, here in Bama. But some of the models show a more southerly track with some of the systems. I know things will change as the hours become less. But I'm starting to get a little concerned about alot of major river flooding around here in the Tennessee Valley, The Ozarks, and points eastward. And possibly more severe weather. I know it's a week or so out. But have you also seen that trend? Lol, I know you've mentioned that going out past 10 - 15 days is basically useless. But model trends that are in agreement sometimes is not a good sign I think. Hope you're doing well, and continue to do what you love to do.
I’ll be honest; I haven’t really looked out past Mon/Tues that much, but it does appear that we’ll stay in this active pattern for a bit, which very well could mean severe weather and flooding concerns for some portions of the southern US. Definitely something to watch as we go forward.
Doing well; thank you! Out on my storm chasing tours now, so that’ll be 2.5 months on the road for me. It’s a grind but I love it!
@@ConvectiveChronicles Hey, It's doing something that you enjoy instead of something less enjoyable lol. You got a link to your price guide for tours? Or do you have one set price? Also, I appreciate your honesty lol on the 10 day + outlook. I've gotten to where I think I understand how the models work, all the things to pay attention to, and understanding the soundings. That's a huge thanks to people like you and many others. I've just always wanted to learn how to understand how the weather functions as it does lol. One day I may be glad I learned something like this. Anyway, sorry such a long response, I do appreciate the replies and information.
@@MetallicAAlabamA Don't apologize for a long response; I always love talking weather! Yes; here's our 2025 tour list with prices included: extremetornadotours.com/booktour/#2025tours
Same as the last system in central ky, everytime the sun pops out, we have another shower.
Yeah, lots of “crapvection” up there today that has impeded the environment somewhat
I will be eagerly anticipating your thoughts on 4/15 into 4/16 and 4/17 as that storm system progresses eastward
Hoping to have an initial video up on the upcoming setup sometime Friday or Saturday
That day 5 looks gnarly out of the SPC. If the timing lines up with peak daytime heating it looks very similar (at least on the 500 mb map) to May 24 2011 or April 26 1991. Not saying it will reach that level of course, but still, an interesting observation
Yeah, overall it has a classic outbreak look…negative-tilt trough with abundant moisture east of a tight dryline
bout to be driving from Buffalo to Detroit around the lake through Ohio tomorrow at some point
should I try making that ~6 hour ride earlier Professor 🐐Trey🐐? or doesn't it really matter. im not concerned, kinda thrilled tomorrow might be the day I see the first tor. I'm not holding my breath.
10/10 update as always
Thank you!! Tomorrow you should be good at any time; severe threat will be long gone by then.
@@ConvectiveChronicles omg I just realized that is today's map 🤦 working overnights has my brain scrambled I swear to god. I guess no lucky tornado tomorrow after all 🤣
I'm hearing Monday is gonna be really bad for us in oklahoma. Possible tornado outbreak.
It’s possible. Still a ways out; we’ll see what the models do over the coming days.
Large tornado has already done damage northwest of St. Augustine Florida
Very interesting, seems like the trend this spring is SPC forecasts are pretty seriously underperforming. I wonder what's up?
These setups have just been really tricky to forecast, both at longer and shorter ranges
It seems that this years severe weather is spread out and not just a smaller area or is it just me?
There have definitely been a lot of folks under the gun this year, which was one of the things of note from our preseason forecast